行业研究丨深度报告丨公用事业 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Title] 复盘 2018，再看当下电力燃气投资价值 [Table_Summary] 回顾 2018 年中美贸易摩擦发生时期，电力股相对市场的相对收益明显，表现出公用事业资产 的防御属性。与电力行业相对收益突出、绝对收益一般相比，港股燃气板块逆势实现了绝对收 益。电力和燃气的优异表现并不仅是防御性的体现，其中也有板块自身的基本面因素助力。站 在当前时点，不确定的市场环境下，电力和燃气的需求受外部冲击有限，我们认为板块的防御 性依然稳固，而且从基本面维度电力和燃气业绩展望同样积极，攻守兼备价值属性同样突出。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SFC：BQT627 刘亚辉 SAC：S0490523080003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 公用事业 c ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's wind power generation in Fujian reached 838 million kWh in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.25%. Overall, the company achieved a total power generation of 899 million kWh, up 12.40% year-on-year, driven by stable growth in electricity generation [2][10] - The company is expected to benefit from the injection of high-quality assets from its parent group, which will enhance earnings per share. The injection includes a 51% stake in Yongtai Pumped Storage, which had a net profit of 218 million yuan in 2023 and a return on equity of 16.49% [10][10] - The approval of the ChangLe B District project and the convergence station project is anticipated to contribute to future earnings growth. The ChangLe B District project has a total installed capacity of 114,000 kW and is expected to operate efficiently due to favorable wind conditions [10][10] Summary by Sections Power Generation Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total power generation of 899 million kWh, a 12.40% increase year-on-year, with grid-connected power generation of 876 million kWh, up 12.89% [6][10] - The performance in different regions showed mixed results, with a significant decrease in Heilongjiang's wind power generation by 35.79% and biomass power generation down by 52.67% [10] Future Growth Potential - The company has a robust pipeline of projects awaiting approval or meeting injection conditions, which is expected to accelerate growth [2][10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.36 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.51 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.95, 10.70, and 9.86 [10][10]

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 关税扰动下，各行业和主要指数的对美暴露率分 析——W105 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 关税扰动对 A 股上市公司 s 的业绩影响几何？本文基于上市公司财务报告，对全 A 的海外收入 敞口和对美收入敞口进行统计分析。主要聚焦以下问题：1）全 A 的整体营收对海外业务的依 赖度如何？2）关税扰动下，哪些行业可能受到影响？以史为鉴，哪些板块可能占优？3）A 股 核心指数的海外和对美收入敞口如何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 关税扰动下，各行业和主要指数的对美暴露率 2] 分析——W105 市场观察 [Table_Summary2] 行业和指数视角看 A 股上市公司的外销依赖度 全体 A 股：外销依赖度低。截至 2023 年年报，全 A 海外收入占比为 11.94%，对美收入占比 为 0.44%，且全 A 中绝大部分公 ...

不稳定的预期 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-04-12 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 本轮调整主流节奏 绝大部分指数均于2025年4月9日见阶段性最低点 图：两地代表性指数 资料来源：通达信，长江证券研究所 %% research.95579.com 3 本轮调整主流节奏 见最低点后，A股走的是超跌反弹的逻辑 北证50自去年9月底进入主流视野后，从交易属性看有替代微盘股指的趋势 | 表：主要指数区间涨跌幅（单位：%） | | --- | | 分类 | 证券简称 | 区间自最高价的最大跌幅（2025-1-1至2025-4-9） | 区间自最低价的最大涨幅（2025-4-1至2025-4-11） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 北证50 | -31.14 | 31.56 | | | 中证2000 | -25.76 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [9] Core Views - Xiaomi Group has evolved from its origins in the MIUI system and mobile phones to become a leading platform in consumer electronics, integrating smartphones, IoT devices, and electric vehicles into a cohesive ecosystem [2][6] - The company is experiencing initial success in its high-end smartphone strategy, with a focus on combining online and offline retail to enhance market penetration [2][7] - Xiaomi's IoT platform is robust, contributing to high user retention and brand loyalty, positioning the company favorably in the consumer electronics market [2][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi started with the MIUI system and launched its first smartphone in 2011, quickly becoming the top seller in China by 2014. The company has since expanded into the IoT market and announced its entry into the smart electric vehicle sector in 2021, with the first vehicle expected to be delivered in 2024 [6][13] Smartphone Market - The smartphone market is currently in a mature phase, with growth driven by high-end product offerings and global expansion. Xiaomi has focused on enhancing its product quality and brand recognition through strategic partnerships, such as with Leica for camera technology [7][39] - Xiaomi's average selling price (ASP) for smartphones is increasing, particularly in the $400-$800 price range, indicating successful penetration into the high-end market [7][39] IoT and Ecosystem - Xiaomi's IoT strategy leverages its smartphone user base to drive growth in connected devices. The company has a leading position in the IoT market, benefiting from its established brand and product ecosystem [8][15] - The integration of various devices within the "human-vehicle-home" ecosystem enhances user experience and promotes cross-selling opportunities [15][28] Financial Performance - In 2024, Xiaomi reported revenue of 365.91 billion yuan, a 35% year-on-year increase, with net profit also rising by 35% to 23.658 billion yuan. The smartphone segment remains dominant, contributing 52.41% of total revenue [25][26] - The IoT segment accounted for 28.45% of revenue, with significant growth in home appliances, while the electric vehicle segment contributed 8.95% [25][26] Future Outlook - The report forecasts that Xiaomi's net profit will continue to grow, reaching 35.404 billion yuan in 2025, 51.653 billion yuan in 2026, and 65.531 billion yuan in 2027, supported by its diversified product strategy and ecosystem development [8][25]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the tariff increase during Trump's second term is significantly higher than during his first term, with a systematic adjustment of tariffs on major trading partners, including a 34% tariff on China and up to 49% on certain Southeast Asian countries [5][13]. - Historical analysis shows that industries such as military, retail, finance, environmental protection, public utilities, rare earths, and agriculture performed well during previous tariff implementations, indicating potential resilience in the face of new tariffs [1][6]. - The report suggests that market risk appetite may improve with changes in domestic and international policies, particularly monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic fiscal measures [1][7]. Tariff Impact Analysis - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are expected to have a differentiated impact, with industries less exposed to the U.S. market, such as insurance, banking, and essential consumer goods, likely to show more resilience [5][6]. - Industries with high exposure to the U.S. market, such as apparel, computer hardware, automotive aftermarket, and electronic components, may face significant performance challenges post-tariff implementation [5][19]. - The report notes that sectors like chemicals and agricultural products have historically outperformed during retaliatory tariff announcements, suggesting a potential for similar outcomes in the current context [6][21]. Industry Performance Outlook - Historical data from 2018 indicates that sectors characterized by self-sufficiency and stability, such as military and insurance, maintained relative stability amid tariff-induced market volatility [6][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying sectors that can benefit from domestic industry substitution effects, particularly during the policy window prior to tariff implementation [6][23]. - The analysis of market performance post-tariff announcements shows that industries like military and insurance have consistently outperformed, while export-oriented sectors like home decoration and leisure have lagged [23][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - TCL Electronics has announced a performance-based incentive share grant plan for 2025, demonstrating confidence in its growth [3][4]. - The company will grant a total of 91,497,900 shares to 860 key contributors, with vesting tied to performance metrics linked to net profit growth [7][8]. - The incentive plan aims to align the interests of management and key personnel with the company's long-term performance, indicating confidence in sustainable growth [7][8]. Summary by Sections Incentive Share Grant Plan - TCL Electronics has introduced a share incentive plan with performance conditions for 2025, involving 860 participants [3][4]. - The shares will vest in three tranches corresponding to the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with maximum vesting ratios of approximately 40%, 30%, and 30% respectively [7]. - The vesting is contingent on achieving specific net profit growth rates compared to the fiscal year 2024 [7]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.51%-25.99% for adjusted net profit from 2024 to 2027 [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 22.23 billion, HKD 26.71 billion, and HKD 30.65 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.33, 7.77, and 6.77 [7][8]. Market Outlook - The company expects to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, driven by the "National Subsidy" policy and ongoing product structure upgrades [7]. - TCL Electronics is positioned to capitalize on structural opportunities in the black goods industry, particularly in the large-screen and high-end markets [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.59%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.14%. The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 20.76% and 10.3%, showing a slight decrease of 0.58 percentage points and an increase of 0.05 percentage points respectively [2][5]. - The company has seen significant growth in AI-related products, with revenue from AI edge products exceeding 45% of total sales. The communication board segment, represented by smartphones, generated 24.236 billion yuan, up 3.08%, while the consumer electronics and computer board business achieved 9.754 billion yuan, a growth of 22.30%. The automotive and server board business also saw a remarkable increase of 90.34%, reaching 1.025 billion yuan [10]. - The company is strategically positioning itself in the AI industry chain, focusing on high-end products and technological innovation. It is advancing in the optical module market with SLP products and has successfully launched its first phase of high-end HDI and SLP projects in Huai'an [10]. - The company is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, with projected net profits of 4.51 billion yuan, 5.07 billion yuan, and 5.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are estimated to be 14.37, 12.78, and 10.97 [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 35.14 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.59% and 10.14% [2][5]. - The gross margin was reported at 20.76%, while the net margin stood at 10.3% [2][5]. Business Segments - The AI edge product revenue has significantly increased, with over 45% of total sales coming from this segment. The communication board segment generated 24.236 billion yuan, while the consumer electronics and computer board business reached 9.754 billion yuan [10]. - The automotive and server board business saw a substantial growth of 90.34%, totaling 1.025 billion yuan [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on high-end product development and technological advancements, particularly in the optical module market and AI-related products [10]. - The first phase of high-end HDI and SLP projects in Huai'an has been successfully launched, with further expansions planned [10].

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 长江电子&计算机&通信：关税原产地规则更新， 芯片国产化提速 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 根据我国海关总署规定，"集成电路"原产地认定更新为流片地。电子：国内厂商受益于巨大的 价格优势，在较大不确定性的环境下，模拟、射频、功率半导体等领域国产化有望迎来黄金窗 口期。计算机：在当前关税条件下和新认定规则下，高端通用 CPU 领域英特尔在中国份额或 国产厂商蚕食，我国高端通用 CPU 国产化进程有望显著提速。通信：目前光芯片大部分采用 IDM 的生产模式，美日供应商大多在本土自有的 fab 厂流片，新规有望加速国产光芯片厂商认 证导入及份额提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 宗建树 于海宁 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUW100 SFC：BUX668 SFC：BUX641 余庚宗 SAC：S0490516030002 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural products sector [10] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the pig farming sector is expected to remain profitable, with pig prices not falling into a loss zone, and both pig output and per-head profits showing year-on-year increases [2][18] - Key recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, which are positioned well due to their cost advantages [2][36] - The feed sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with Hai Da Group recommended as a key player due to its expected growth in feed sales [2][8] - The pet food market is seeing a rise in domestic brand strength, with recommendations for leading companies such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and a suggestion to pay attention to Petty Co. [2][9] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in Q1 2025 is approximately 15.0 CNY/kg, up from 14.5 CNY/kg in Q1 2024, indicating a positive trend [7][19] - Average self-breeding profit is around 92.58 CNY/head in Q1 2025, a significant recovery from a loss of 170.26 CNY/head in Q1 2024 [7][19] - Quality pig farming companies have a total cost below 13 CNY/kg, maintaining over 200 CNY/head profit in Q1 2025 [19][36] Feed Sector - The feed sector's recovery is evident, with national industrial feed production reaching 49.2 million tons in January-February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [8][19] - Hai Da Group aims for a 12% growth in feed sales, with an expected increase of over 100,000 tons in Q1 2025, translating to a growth rate exceeding 20% [8][19] Pet Food - The pet food sector is witnessing a surge in domestic brands, with online sales growth of 13.6% in January-February 2025, and Guibao Pet's online sales growing over 50% [9][19] - Guibao Pet is expected to achieve over 30% growth in Q1 2025, with a projected net profit growth of around 25% [9][19] - Zhongchong Co. is focusing on new product launches, expecting a 25%-30% increase in domestic sales revenue and a net profit growth of approximately 50% in Q1 2025 [9][19]