Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [10]. Core Insights - The recent revision of the pricing methods for transmission and distribution aims to enhance the consumption of renewable energy, with a focus on establishing a fair cost-sharing mechanism among grid companies, power generation enterprises, and users [2][6]. - The new regulations are expected to lower transmission and distribution costs, thereby making electricity pricing more reasonable while promoting the utilization of renewable energy [12]. Summary by Sections Pricing Method Revisions - The National Development and Reform Commission has revised four pricing methods related to transmission and distribution, adapting to the new requirements of the power system and focusing on renewable energy consumption [6]. - Key changes include the introduction of a single capacity pricing system for grid companies serving renewable energy projects, enhancing regulatory oversight throughout the process [7]. Cost Monitoring - The new methods provide a more accurate reflection of financing costs for grid companies by establishing a loan interest rate based on the average financing rate of the group [6]. - Changes in cost parameters for materials and management fees aim to ensure that costs do not exceed previously established limits, thus improving the accuracy of cost monitoring [6][7]. Provincial and Cross-Regional Pricing - The revised methods allow for adjustments in the return on equity for provincial grid companies, ensuring a balance between reasonable returns and user affordability [7]. - For cross-regional projects, the report suggests exploring two-part or single capacity transmission pricing, which is expected to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy across provinces [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Investment Power [12]. - It also highlights opportunities in the renewable energy sector, suggesting investments in companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, which are expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and market conditions [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal, non-metal, and mining industry [6]. Core Insights - The weakening dollar and rising expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a recovery in risk assets, with silver leading the way. The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 80%, benefiting precious metals and industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of silver, which has recently reached a new historical high due to futures market dynamics. The outlook for gold remains positive amid expectations of continued economic recession in the U.S. and attractive valuations in the A-share market for gold stocks [4]. - Industrial metal prices have strengthened, driven by enhanced rate cut expectations, with copper and aluminum showing significant price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights that the weakening dollar and the anticipated rate cuts are driving precious metals, particularly silver, to new highs. The analysis suggests that the macroeconomic environment and trading structures favor silver's continued rise [4]. - For gold, the report maintains a bullish stance, predicting that if gold prices break previous highs, the sector will see significant recovery in valuations. The report recommends focusing on specific stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining [4]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts are likely to improve the short-term outlook for copper and aluminum. Recent price movements include a 3.7% increase in LME copper and a 2% increase in LME aluminum [4][21]. - The report also discusses the supply dynamics, indicating that copper and aluminum inventories have shown mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing while aluminum inventories have decreased [4][36]. Energy and Minor Metals - The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for lithium, with supply and demand dynamics expected to shift positively. The recovery in lithium prices is anticipated as production constraints and rising demand from electric vehicles and energy storage continue [4]. - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are highlighted for their potential value appreciation, particularly in light of government policies affecting supply and ongoing demand recovery [4]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 3.16% increase compared to a 1.40% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index over the past week [12][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 5.183 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%. Gross profit was HKD 1.827 billion, down 20.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 571 million, a decline of 24.4%. The interim dividend per share remained flat at HKD 0.13 [2][6]. - The core operating business remains stable, although the installation, maintenance, and construction segments, along with property business, have seen declines, impacting overall profitability. The company has shown signs of a turning point in free cash flow, indicating potential for future dividend increases [2][9]. Business Segment Analysis - **Urban Water Supply**: Revenue decreased by 13.1% to HKD 3.27 billion, with segment profit down 17.4% to HKD 941 million. However, core water supply service revenue increased by 4.5% to HKD 1.801 billion, driven by a 5% increase in water sales. The completion of water price adjustments in eight cities is expected to further boost revenue and profit margins [9]. - **Direct Drinking Water**: Revenue fell by 28.3% to HKD 263 million, with segment profit declining 55.2% to HKD 75 million. Despite this, revenue from direct water supply operations and equipment sales remained stable [9]. - **Environmental Segment**: Benefiting from the Meifeng Wastewater Treatment Project, this segment achieved revenue of HKD 832 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with segment profit rising 29.7% to HKD 367 million [9]. - **General Contracting**: Revenue decreased by 6.1% to HKD 398 million, with segment profit down 60.2% to HKD 158 million [9]. - **Property Business**: Revenue plummeted by 93.3% to HKD 17 million, with segment profit dropping 96.4% to HKD 500,000, but the impact on overall performance is expected to be limited [9]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a 17.6% decrease in financial expenses during FY2026H1, benefiting from lower financing costs amid domestic and international interest rate cuts [9]. - The interim dividend payout ratio is 37%, with capital expenditures peaking at HKD 5.14 billion in FY2024, decreasing to HKD 3.24 billion in FY2025, leading to a positive free cash flow of HKD 150 million. For FY2026, capital expenditures are projected to be no more than HKD 2 billion, indicating a clear turning point in free cash flow and potential for increased dividends [9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.14 billion, 1.16 billion, and 1.20 billion for FY2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 2.2%, and 2.7% respectively. The emergence of free cash flow is viewed positively for future dividend increases, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 42.53% for FY2026-2028, corresponding to dividend yields of 5.1%, 5.2%, and 5.3% based on the stock price as of November 28, 2025 [9].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 好房子的关键在于定价 [Table_Summary] 最顶端的豪宅市场，从典型样本跟周边次新的比价去看，定价已趋于合理区间，但市场容量相 对有限，核心矛盾在于潜在供应量较大；中高端改善市场，大多数产品定价已不低，且周边二 手竞品仍面临较大的补跌压力，好房子去化逐步承压，但部分定价具备性价比的项目，去化依 然相对较好，定价是项目去化的关键。综合而言，好房子是中长期阿尔法，只要定价合理，去 化不是问题，今年部分高地价项目的兑现有不确定性，短期盈利改善进程有一定波折；但近期 土地市场逐步降温，这对后续拿地构成利好，房企中期盈利结构性改善的置信度在提高。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 好房子的关键在于定价 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the software and services industry [12] Core Insights - The current AI narrative is viewed as a new industrial revolution, with Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang predicting the creation of a $100 trillion market driven by the transformation of existing industries and the emergence of new markets for AI manufacturers [7][24] - AI is expected to enhance productivity by freeing humans from mundane tasks, with significant implications for both consumer and enterprise applications [50][55] - Major players in the AI space are focusing on vertical integration, with model manufacturers and chipmakers collaborating to create AI factories and enhance system capabilities [9][10] Summary by Sections Current AI Expectations - The AI transformation is seen as a new industrial revolution, with potential market size reaching $100 trillion driven by changes in large-scale enterprises and the emergence of AI manufacturers [7][24] - AI is reshaping how large companies operate, with significant revenue streams now driven by AI technologies [24][28] Birth of Super Applications - Super applications are likely to emerge from major tech giants, focusing on traffic entry points and user engagement [8][55] - The ultimate goal of technological advancement is to liberate humans from necessary labor, allowing for a focus on higher-value tasks [55][56] Strategic Positioning of Major Players - Major AI companies are pursuing vertical integration strategies, combining model development with platform and operating system creation [9][10] - The competition for traffic entry points is intensifying, with companies vying for control over user interactions and data [58][59] Focus Areas for Investment - The report highlights three key areas for investment: AI factories, traffic entry points, and companies that can quickly realize labor revolution scenarios [10] - Companies that can leverage AI for long-term value, particularly in cloud computing and hardware supply, are recommended for investment [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - Since November, the coal price has declined due to weak demand, leading to a sector pullback. Despite high inventory levels at power plants limiting price increases, low port inventories and tight supply conditions suggest limited downside for prices. The current market presents value in dividend-paying stocks with stable earnings, especially considering year-end demand for insurance capital allocation [2][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.15 percentage points. The thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao port was 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of November 27, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 25 provinces was 5.41 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. Power plant inventories were 137 million tons, with an available days supply of 25.2 days, up 0.6 days year-on-year. Port inventories showed a year-on-year decline of 9.5% [17][37] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 2.16% week-on-week. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port was 1,670 CNY/ton, down 110 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market remains resilient due to low port inventories and seasonal demand [6][44] Investment Recommendations - Stock selection should focus on three strategies: defensive and offensive stocks like Yancoal Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy; stable leaders such as China Coal Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical; and elastic growth stocks like Jinkong Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy [8]

Group 1: Metal Sector - Huaxi Nonferrous is expected to see net profit growth from CNY 6.58 billion in 2024 to CNY 11.40 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 37.28 to 21.52[10] - The company has a projected capacity increase to 0.6 million tons of tin and 1 million tons of antimony by 2027, benefiting from resource consolidation trends in Guangxi[12] Group 2: Construction Materials - Huaxin Cement's net profit is forecasted to rise from CNY 24.16 billion in 2024 to CNY 36.73 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 17.21 to 11.32[10] - The company has diversified its growth strategy, focusing on overseas markets and stabilizing its aggregate business[28] Group 3: Transportation - ZTO Express is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 88.17 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 104.11 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio improving from 13.39 to 11.34[10] - The "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery sector have led to a recovery in profitability, with significant improvements in average ticket prices since August 2025[33] Group 4: Energy Sector - ChuanTou Energy's net profit is expected to grow from CNY 45.08 billion in 2024 to CNY 52.59 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 15.93 to 13.65[10] - The company benefits from its stake in Yalong River Hydropower, which contributes significantly to its earnings[73] Group 5: Chemical Sector - Yara International's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 39.34 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 42.50 to 10.27[10] - The company is positioned as a leader in overseas potash mining, with significant reserves in Laos[49]

Economic Outlook - Domestic policy expectations are rising in December, and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut is increasing, which may lead to improved external liquidity and a potential market rebound[5] - Key focus areas include the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could lead to a valuation recovery in the technology sector[5] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly AI hardware like optical modules and semiconductors, as well as energy storage and lithium battery sectors[5] 2. Market hot spots such as robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to rebound[5] 3. Chemical industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies that optimize supply-demand dynamics[5] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended sectors include metals, chemicals, electric new energy, machinery, banking, automotive, pharmaceuticals, electronics, communications, and media[5] - Specific stock recommendations include: - Metals: Huaxi Nonferrous (华锡有色) with an expected EPS growth from 1.04 in 2024 to 2.17 in 2027[28] - Chemicals: Yara International (亚钾国际) with an expected EPS growth from 1.02 in 2024 to 5.87 in 2027[28] - Electric New Energy: Slin (斯菱股份) with an expected EPS growth from 1.73 in 2024 to 2.21 in 2027[28] - Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic (恒立液压) with an expected EPS growth from 1.87 in 2024 to 3.18 in 2027[28] - Banking: Bank of Communications (交通银行) with a projected PB of 0.58x in 2025[18] - Automotive: Top Group (拓普集团) with an expected EPS growth from 1.78 in 2024 to 2.38 in 2027[28] - Pharmaceuticals: Junshi Biosciences (君实生物) with a projected EPS turnaround by 2027[28] - Electronics: Dongshan Precision (东山精密) with an expected EPS growth from 0.64 in 2024 to 3.72 in 2027[28] - Communications: Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) with projected net profits of 105.19 billion in 2025[26] - Media: Kaiying Network (恺英网络) with a projected EPS growth from 0.76 in 2024 to 1.47 in 2027[28] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations due to slow employment growth, declining corporate revenues, and reduced market demand[30] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could adversely affect performance[30]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the technology sector, specifically highlighting key stocks for December 2025 [4][8]. Core Insights - The report identifies several companies within the technology sector that are expected to perform well, including Zhaoyi Innovation, Dongshan Precision, Fourth Paradigm, Tax Friend, Zhongji Xuchuang, Huafeng Technology, Kaiying Network, and Perfect World [12][14][15][16][19]. Summary by Category Electronics - **Zhaoyi Innovation**: The company is in a price increase cycle for storage products, with NOR Flash expanding its market share and SLC NAND Flash improving its process technology. The revenue is expected to continue growing as it captures high-end markets [14]. - **Dongshan Precision**: The company is entering a growth phase driven by AI technology, with increased demand for data servers. It has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its position in optical communication and PCB sectors [14]. Computer - **Fourth Paradigm**: The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of AI across various industries. Its core product, the AI platform, is experiencing rapid revenue growth, and it holds a leading market share in machine learning platforms in China [15]. - **Tax Friend**: As a leader in financial and tax information technology, the company is leveraging AI to enhance its service offerings, which is expected to drive significant growth in high-value business segments [16]. Communication - **Zhongji Xuchuang**: The company is a leader in optical modules, with strong R&D capabilities and a robust overseas production capacity. It is expected to see significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [16]. - **Huafeng Technology**: The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high demand for AI computing power, with expectations of profit growth in the coming years [17]. Media - **Kaiying Network**: The company has a rich product pipeline and is expected to see growth from new game launches and collaborations. Its investments in AI gaming applications are also anticipated to drive future revenue [19]. - **Perfect World**: The company is focusing on developing new games and hosting major esports events, which are expected to contribute to its growth trajectory [19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The company, North Navigation, is backed by the China Ordnance Industry Group and focuses on building three industrial ecosystems: navigation and control, military communication, and intelligent integrated connectivity, aiming to seize the high ground in the modernization of national defense and military equipment [2][5]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the effectiveness of the HIMARS system, prompting the U.S. to increase its procurement of long-range fire systems, which North Navigation is well-positioned to benefit from due to its capabilities in navigation and control for consumable equipment [9][6]. - The construction and application of a comprehensive network information system is a key focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for national defense and military modernization, with the company strategically investing in military communication and intelligent integrated connectivity [9][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - North Navigation Control Technology Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of the China Ordnance Industry Group, primarily engaged in dual-use products focusing on navigation control and ammunition information technology [5][18]. - The company aims to develop eight specialized technical systems, including guidance and control, AI target recognition, advanced materials, and intelligent manufacturing, to support its three industrial ecosystems [5][18]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. military has significantly increased its procurement of long-range fire systems, planning to acquire 500 HIMARS systems by 2028, up from a pre-conflict plan of only 105 units [6][53]. - Military communication networks are crucial for modern warfare, serving as the "nervous system" of the military, with a market space for data links potentially exceeding $40 billion [7][9]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see substantial growth, with projected net profits of 213 million, 296 million, and 386 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 261%, 39%, and 30% [9][35].