行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 贵金属领衔，金属全面上行 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 继续推荐铜铝春季行情。商品端，降息预期与美国囤铜共振背景下，铜铝商品短期依然强势， 中期经济底部+供需结构优化，铜铝商品弹性可期：1）短期，尽管 CL 铜价差消失使得套利盘 往美国搬库存动力减弱，但本轮导致美国囤铜的本质动机——关税担忧，并未改变，故目前美 国囤铜趋势未改，叠加下周联储主席人选可能公布，因此，在当前宏观、微观多重催化共振下， 铜价仍易冲高，进而撑开了铝等补涨工业金属更大空间。2）中期，美联储引领全球趋势宽松促 进铜铝周期上行。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 分 ...

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上证指数在 2026 年开年连续上涨后进入阶段性的震荡整固期，技术上 RSI 指标从超买区回落， 正寻求 10EMA 与 21EMA 均线支撑，换手率高位回落但全 A 成交额倍数指标尚未触及历史高 点，结构上看，商业航天及 AI 应用等热点板块仍待企稳。从中长期股债性价比看，市场估值仍 有较大上行空间，资金面上，杠杆资金高度聚焦科技方向，电子、通信、军工等方向融资余额 占比已创 2015 年以来新高，风格极值接近滚动 3 个月均值，短期市场轮动或将加速，金融、 消费风格或有望迎来反弹，中长期看好"科技+资源"双主线不变。 丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 降温不改暖意，慢牛行远未已——A 股的情绪与 位置（1 月 W3） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 降温不改暖意，慢牛行远未已—— 2] A 股的情绪与 位置（1 月 W3） [ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size increased, with improved single - month profitability in December, accelerated inventory destocking, and increased production - sales ratio. The operating pressure may have marginally eased, and the enterprise profit repair trend is initially evident. However, the performance of revenue and profit margin is still divergent, the profit quality is somewhat restricted, and there are also differences among industries, with the mid - upstream performing well and the downstream under pressure. The "anti - involution" measures may have some effects, but the sustainability of profit repair depends on whether policies can stimulate the improvement of terminal demand and drive price stabilization and recovery. The bond market's reaction to the fundamentals may still show the characteristic of "being insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news", and the structural highlights of the economic fundamentals may limit the downward space of interest rates. The view of short - term long - bond oscillation is maintained [3][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In 2025, the cumulative operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was 139.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%; the cumulative operating cost was 118.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; the cumulative total profit was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the operating profit margin increased by 0.02 pct to 5.31% compared with the first 11 months. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits increased by 18.4 pct to 5.3% compared with November [6] 3.2 Event Comments - **Profit growth rate recovery and strong seasonality in the month - on - month aspect**: From January to December 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth rate increased by 0.5 pct compared with November. The low - base effect contributed, and the month - on - month growth rate was also at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, indicating the improvement of enterprise profitability. The reasons for the recovery of the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in December are: active production (the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value rebounded and the capacity utilization rate improved), weakened drag on the price side (the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed and the production - sales ratio also improved slightly), and the year - on - year growth rate of the operating profit margin turned from negative to positive (an 8.6% year - on - year increase in December, a 22 pct increase compared with the previous month) [9] - **Marginal pressure on revenue and improved profit margin**: In December, the year - on - year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was - 3.2%, and the decline increased by 3 pct compared with November. In terms of cost and expenses, the cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size for the whole year was 85.31 yuan, and the expenses were 8.62 yuan. The total amount, cumulative year - on - year, and month - on - month growth rates all increased compared with January - November. In terms of profit efficiency, the cumulative value of the operating profit margin from January to December increased from the previous 5.29% to 5.31%, but the profit quality needs to be improved due to the year - on - year increase in cost and expenses and the impact of investment income [9] - **Differentiated profit performance**: In December, the non - ferrous and high - tech manufacturing industries performed well, while the downstream was still under pressure. Throughout the year, the black metal industry improved significantly, and the equipment manufacturing industry had a stable growth rate. By industry, the profits of the mid - stream non - ferrous, railway and shipbuilding, and downstream furniture manufacturing industries improved significantly in December. From the perspective of the two - year average growth rate, the profit growth rates of the mining, raw material, and equipment manufacturing industries all rebounded. Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry recorded a profit of 109.83 billion yuan, a three - fold increase compared with the previous year; the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry provided strong support, driving the profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 2.8 pct throughout the year; the high - tech manufacturing industry had a remarkable growth rate, with the profit of high - tech manufacturing industries above designated size increasing by 13.3% compared with the previous year, 12.7 pct higher than the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size. By business entity, the profit growth rates of small and medium - sized enterprises, foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises turned from negative to positive, and the profits of joint - stock and state - owned holding enterprises improved significantly [9] - **Both nominal and real inventories decreased, and inventory destocking accelerated**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventories of industrial enterprises was 3.9%, a decrease of 0.7 pct compared with the previous month. After excluding price factors, the real inventory was 5.9% year - on - year, a decrease of 1 pct compared with the previous month. The turnover days of finished products were 19.9 days, slightly lower than the previous month, and inventory turnover accelerated seasonally. By industry, some mid - stream manufacturing and downstream consumer goods industries were still in the process of inventory replenishment, while industries such as black metal and textile were actively destocking, and nearly 20% of industries destocked in December. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased compared with the previous month. Notably, the production - sales ratio of industrial enterprises rebounded to near the median of the same period in history, and the asset - liability ratio continued to reach a new high in the same period over the years, which may reflect the marginal improvement of enterprise operating pressure [9]

- The report primarily discusses the new regulatory guidelines for performance benchmarks in public funds, issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on January 22, 2026, which will take effect on March 1, 2026. These guidelines aim to standardize the selection, adjustment, disclosure, and supervision of performance benchmarks, filling a long-standing gap in the industry for systematic benchmark management [7][15][16] - The guidelines emphasize that performance benchmarks must align with the fund's investment objectives, scope, and style. Selected indices should meet requirements for representativeness, liquidity, and continuous disclosure. Once selected, benchmarks cannot be arbitrarily changed unless specific conditions are met, such as the benchmark becoming non-operational, and changes must be announced 30 days in advance [11][18] - Fund managers are required to establish internal control mechanisms covering benchmark selection, monitoring, correction, and accountability. Independent departments must monitor investment deviations, set differentiated thresholds, and take corrective actions or escalate to the investment decision committee when thresholds are breached. Additionally, fund managers' performance compensation will be adjusted if active equity funds underperform their benchmarks over the long term [11][18] - External supervision and information disclosure are also strengthened. Custodian institutions must monitor fund operations and alert regulators to any violations. Sales institutions must present benchmark performance alongside fund performance, and evaluation agencies must incorporate benchmarks into performance rankings and evaluations. Fund contracts and periodic reports must detail the rationale for benchmark selection, its alignment with the fund's strategy, and performance differences. For one year after a benchmark change, both old and new benchmarks must be disclosed for comparison [11][18] - The guidelines provide a one-year transition period for existing products to adjust benchmarks that do not meet the new requirements. Custodian responsibilities and system upgrades are given a six-month transition period, allowing sufficient time for industry adaptation [11][18] - The report highlights that the new guidelines will lead to clearer product positioning, reduce style drift, and shift industry competition towards compliance and professional investment capabilities. This will provide investors with better tools for evaluating fund performance and reduce the complexity of investment decisions. The industry is expected to transition from a scale-driven to a quality-driven approach, encouraging long-term capital inflows and promoting stable capital market development [16][19] - As of January 25, 2026, 11 active equity funds have adjusted their benchmarks since the draft guidelines were released on October 31, 2025. Adjustments include shifting from broad-based indices to sector or style-specific indices (e.g., consumption, growth, value) and adding Hong Kong stock indices to A-share indices. However, the majority of benchmarks remain concentrated in broad-based indices like CSI 300, CSI 800, and CSI 500, which collectively account for approximately 62% of active equity fund assets [2][19][20] - In the Hong Kong stock market, benchmarks are also concentrated in broad-based indices, with the Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong Composite Index (in RMB or HKD) accounting for about 85% of active equity fund assets. The Hang Seng Index is the most commonly used benchmark, representing approximately 7.94 trillion yuan in assets across 972 funds [23][24] - For fixed-income benchmarks, the most commonly used index is the ChinaBond Composite Full Price Index, followed by the CSI Comprehensive Bond Index and the National Bond Index [26][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, active funds did not significantly reduce their holdings in bank stocks, with a stable allocation ratio of 1.86% compared to the previous quarter. This reflects a general decline in market risk appetite. However, it is anticipated that the allocation ratio may decrease further in Q1 2026 due to a significant rebound in risk appetite and the relative underperformance of bank stocks at the beginning of the year [2][6] - The selection of individual stocks has shifted towards a focus on fundamental trends, with Ningbo Bank seeing the most significant increase in allocation due to improved asset quality and performance expectations. The bank has established a turning point in retail asset quality and is expected to lead the sector in performance [7][8] - The report suggests that the core investment strategy for 2026 should prioritize high-performing regional banks, particularly city commercial banks, as they are expected to maintain superior growth rates amid a stable credit structure [9] Summary by Sections Active Fund Holdings - As of Q4 2025, the allocation ratio of active public funds to bank stocks remained stable at 1.86%, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite. The allocation ratio is expected to hit a new low in Q1 2026 due to a resurgence in risk appetite and the underperformance of bank stocks [6][8] - City commercial banks experienced a reduction of approximately 1.7 billion in total holdings, but Ningbo Bank was notably increased by 860 million, reflecting a shift towards stocks with improving fundamentals [7][8] Stock Selection Trends - The focus on stock selection has shifted from high dividend yields to fundamental trends, with Ningbo Bank being the most significantly increased stock in Q4 2025. The bank's asset quality indicators have shown continuous improvement, and it is expected to see a growth in performance in 2026 [7][8] - Conversely, stocks like Chengdu Bank have been reduced significantly, reflecting concerns over performance volatility and ongoing adjustments in business structure [7] Market Dynamics - The banking sector has faced downward pressure due to capital outflows from active funds and index funds, leading to undervaluation in bank stocks. The report recommends seizing opportunities in quality city commercial banks at lower price levels [9][33] - The report highlights that the allocation strategy for 2026 should focus on high-quality city commercial banks, as they are expected to outperform in terms of earnings growth amid a stable credit environment [9]

Group 1 - The overall fund position decreased marginally in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in the allocation to the CSI 300 index [6][14][23] - The allocation to the ChiNext board increased by 1.35 percentage points to 20.49%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 1.17 percentage points to 65.64% [14][21] - The allocation to cyclical sectors increased, while technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors saw a decrease in allocation [7][27] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, public funds increased their allocation to cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors [7][24] - The allocation to materials and mining sectors increased by 3.11 percentage points to 13.51%, while the allocation to information technology and hardware decreased by 2.45 percentage points to 26.23% [27][32] - The telecommunications sector saw an increase in allocation, while the electronics, healthcare, and media sectors experienced a significant decline [7][32] Group 3 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors increased, with the high-dividend industry holding rising by 1.18 percentage points to 5.88% [7] - The allocation to export-related sectors showed mixed results, with an increase in home appliances by 0.18 percentage points to 2.73% and a decrease in semiconductors by 0.39 percentage points to 12.52% [7] - The allocation to core assets decreased, particularly in the power and new energy equipment and food and beverage sectors [7][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings among the top five stocks increased to 15.61%, up by 2 percentage points from Q3 2025 [23] - The allocation to the telecommunications sector was notably increased, while the allocation to AI applications and quantum technology sectors was reduced [7][32]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In December 2026, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year, ending two consecutive months of negative growth[6] - The operating revenue for the same month decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a decline in sales despite profit growth[6] Group 2: Profit Recovery Drivers - The recovery in profits is driven by a rebound in exports and rising raw material prices, with mining profits declining by 2.7%, manufacturing profits increasing by 5.0%, and public utility profits rising by 23.1%[10] - The profit growth in December was primarily supported by the non-ferrous smelting sector, which contributed a 5.6 percentage point increase in profit growth[10] Group 3: Inventory and Turnover Improvements - By the end of December, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of industrial product inventories fell to 3.9%, reflecting improved inventory turnover due to stronger exports[10] - The average turnover days for industrial enterprises' inventories decreased to 19.9 days, and accounts receivable turnover days fell to 67.9 days, indicating reduced turnover pressure[10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a strong start for enterprise profits, supported by robust external demand and a gradual recovery in internal investment policies[10] - As of January 25, 2026, new special bonds issued amounted to 367.7 billion yuan, exceeding the planned issuance by 146.3 billion yuan, signaling a focus on stabilizing investment[10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry is "Positive" and maintained [6]. Core Insights - The German government plans to restart the electric vehicle (EV) subsidy policy that was suspended in 2023, with a total budget of €3 billion (approximately ¥24 billion), aimed at boosting the domestic automotive industry and accelerating the green transition [2][4][18]. - The subsidy will provide between €1,500 and €6,000 for eligible low- to middle-income families purchasing new energy vehicles priced below €45,000, effective from January 1, 2026, until 2029 or until funds are exhausted [18]. - The expected impact of the subsidy is to significantly increase the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Germany, with projections indicating that at least 500,000 vehicles will be subsidized, accounting for approximately 29.5% of the expected new energy vehicle sales in 2025 [18][21]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On January 19, the German government announced the restart of the EV subsidy policy, with a total budget of €3 billion, to enhance the penetration of new energy vehicles in the market [4][18]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Germany is expected to rise significantly due to the subsidy, with a projected 84,700 new energy vehicles sold in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.3% [13][18]. - The overall new energy vehicle sales in Europe are projected to reach 3.9 million units in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 32.7% [13][18]. Implications for Domestic Companies - The subsidy is expected to benefit domestic companies such as BYD, Leapmotor, and SAIC, as many of their models are priced below €45,000 [30]. - The increase in new energy vehicle penetration in Europe is anticipated to positively impact the performance of domestic component manufacturers and vehicle producers operating in the European market [30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio in the automotive industry slightly increased to 4.35%, up by 0.02 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating an overall overweight of 0.14% compared to the market capitalization of automotive stocks in A-shares [2][5] - The configuration ratio for automotive manufacturing decreased to 1.04%, down by 0.12 percentage points, while the configuration ratio for automotive parts increased to 3.31%, up by 0.14 percentage points [5] - The wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in Q4 2025 reached 8.846 million units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.1% [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector increased by 2.15%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.62% [28] - Among sub-sectors, commercial vehicle parts rose by 7.36%, while automotive sales and services fell by 5.74% [28] Fund Holdings - The top fifteen fund holdings in the automotive sector for Q4 2025 include Fuyao Glass, Slin Intelligent Drive, and Sailun Tire, with significant inflows into Slin Intelligent Drive and outflows from Jianghuai Automobile [6][17] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Overseas expansion with recommendations for companies like Minth Group and BYD 2. High-end passenger vehicles and parts with a focus on companies like Geely and Ideal Automotive 3. Embracing AI technology with recommendations for companies like Top Group and Xpeng Motors [7][22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the fiberglass industry [13]. Core Insights - The fiberglass industry is currently at a relative bottom of the cycle, with price elasticity for 2026 projected as follows: AI specialty electronic cloth > ordinary electronic cloth > ordinary coarse yarn. The report is optimistic about the performance elasticity brought by price increases in electronic cloth [3][46]. - The demand for AI specialty electronic cloth remains high, driven by the AI boom, leading to a tight supply situation and price increases. The Low CTE and Low-Dk second-generation cloths are expected to face even larger supply gaps [8][20]. - Ordinary electronic cloth is expected to continue to see price increases due to capacity constraints in weaving machines, with a supply gap anticipated to persist into 2026 and widen in 2027 [10][43]. Summary by Sections AI Electronic Cloth - The demand for Low CTE electronic cloth is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 6.7 million meters in 2025, 18 million meters in 2026, and 33.6 million meters in 2027, driven by AI computing chip packaging and high-end consumer electronics [32]. - The report highlights that the Low CTE electronic cloth is critical for advanced packaging in AI applications, with current supply being scarce and domestic companies beginning to fill the gap [8][36]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be pivotal for the application of quartz cloth and the second-generation Low-Dk cloth, with demand expected to exceed 50 million meters [26]. Ordinary Electronic Cloth - Ordinary electronic cloth prices are expected to rise due to a recovery in demand and limited new capacity, with prices increasing from 3.4 CNY/m in early 2025 to 4.1 CNY/m by January 2026 [10][38]. - The supply of weaving machines is a critical constraint, with a projected gap in machine availability starting in 2025 and expected to widen in subsequent years [10][50]. - The report notes that the price of ordinary electronic cloth is likely to continue its upward trend due to these supply constraints [10][46]. Platinum Price Impact - The significant increase in platinum prices, from 230 CNY/g in January 2025 to 672 CNY/g in January 2026, is expected to raise investment costs in the fiberglass sector by over 40%, potentially constraining supply [11][36]. - The report emphasizes that the rising costs associated with platinum will particularly impact smaller electronic cloth manufacturers [11].