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江苏银行(600919):2024年年报点评:利息增速回升,零售需求回暖
长江证券· 2025-04-22 08:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth for 2024 is projected at 8.8% year-on-year, with a significant acceleration in the fourth quarter, achieving a growth rate of 18.5% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 10.8% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter growth rate of 16.5% [2][6]. - The interest income for the year increased by 6.3%, with a notable rise in the fourth quarter [6]. - The year-end non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.89%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 350% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's total revenue for 2024 is expected to grow by 8.8%, with a fourth-quarter growth of 18.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 10.8% for the year, with a fourth-quarter growth of 16.5% [2][6]. - Interest income growth for the year is 6.3%, with a significant fourth-quarter increase of 23% [11]. Loan and Asset Quality - Year-end loans increased by 10.7% compared to the beginning of the year, with retail loans showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.2% in the fourth quarter [2][6]. - The year-end non-performing loan ratio was stable at 0.89%, and the provision coverage ratio decreased to 350% [2][6]. Interest Margin and Cost of Liabilities - The net interest margin for the year was 1.86%, down 4 basis points from the first half of the year and down 12 basis points year-on-year. However, the decline in the fourth quarter is expected to stabilize, leading to accelerated growth in interest income [11]. - The cost of liabilities improved significantly, with the annual cost of liabilities decreasing by 21 basis points [11]. Retail Loan Demand and Market Position - There was a notable recovery in retail loan demand in the fourth quarter, with various retail loan categories showing growth compared to the beginning of the year [11]. - The bank's dividend payout ratio for 2024 is expected to remain stable at 30%, corresponding to a projected dividend yield of 5.5%, which is among the highest in the A-share banking sector [11].
AI产业跟踪:扣子空间内测开始,AIAgent或将重塑生产力
长江证券· 2025-04-22 02:58
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪:扣子空间内测开始,AI Agent 或 将重塑生产力 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 4 月 18 日,字节跳动技术团队宣布,其全新 AI 协同办公平台"扣子空间"(Coze Space)正 式开启内测。随着 AI 技术的不断发展和进步,扣子空间有望进一步拓展其功能和应用场景,并 支持开发者轻松地搭建、测试和发布各种 AI 应用,进而推动 AI 应用加速落地。建议关注三类 产业机遇:(1)AI Agent 逐渐成熟,建议关注陪伴机器人、个人助理、企业助理场景的持续进 展;(2)兼具场景&技术优势的垂类厂商,享受技术&工具逐渐完善下的场景升级红利;(3)建 议关注技术优势厂商,以多模态为代表,有望深入更多场景拓宽业务边界。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 SAC:S0490520030004 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title AI 产业跟踪:扣 ...
奥来德(688378):高世代线设备放量在即,材料业务持续增长
长江证券· 2025-04-22 02:43
丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨奥来德(688378.SH) 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title] 高世代线设备放量在即,材料业务持续增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1、公司发布 2024 年年报,全年实现收入 5.3 亿元(同比+3.0%),归属净利润 0.9 亿元(同比 -26.0%),归属扣非净利润 0.5 亿元(同比-40.1%)。公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 2.5 元(含税)。2、公司发布 2024 年一季报,实现收入 1.5 亿元(同比-40.7%),归属净利润 0.3 亿元(同比-73.2%),归属扣非净利润 0.1 亿元(同比-82.1%)。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 杨洋 谢尔曼 叶家宏 SAC:S0490516100002 SAC:S0490517070012 SAC:S0490518070003 SAC:S0490522060003 SFC:BUT911 SFC:BUW100 %% %% research.95579.com 1 奥来德(688378.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table ...
恒力石化(600346):油价中枢回落,未来炼化景气度有望改善
长江证券· 2025-04-22 02:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 236.27 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit decreased by 13.14% year-on-year to 5.21 billion yuan [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 58.51 billion yuan, down 5.14% year-on-year and 10.30% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.94 billion yuan, up 61.03% year-on-year and 78.39% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 582 million yuan, down 42.91% year-on-year and 46.30% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve net profits of 7.12 billion yuan, 8.37 billion yuan, and 9.51 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.5X, 13.2X, and 11.6X based on the closing price on April 21, 2025 [12]. - The company has maintained a high cash dividend ratio, with cash dividends amounting to 56.07% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 [12]. Industry Position - The company is positioned as a unique large-scale chemical enterprise that integrates oil, coal, and chemicals, with significant production capacities located within the same industrial park, which reduces operational and logistics costs [12]. - The company has a production capacity of 5.2 million tons of PX and 1.8 million tons of pure benzene, which are high-value chemical products in demand [12]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing operations, reducing debt, and enhancing shareholder returns as it approaches the end of its current investment and capital expenditure peak [12]. - New projects in fine chemicals and new materials are set to be launched, with the Suzhou Fenhu base expected to produce 470,000 tons of high-end functional polyester films annually [12].
建材周专题:关注稳地产政策预期
长江证券· 2025-04-22 02:12
丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 3 月统计局地产数据降幅收窄,关注稳地产政策预期 基本面:水泥价格小幅下降,玻璃库存环比持平 重视内需加码预期下的基建链和存量链,关注非洲链投资机会 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] 关注稳地产政策预期 ——建材周专题 2025W15 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 李金宝 李浩 董超 SAC:S0490513080001 SAC:S0490518080002 SAC:S0490516040002 SAC:S0490520080026 SAC:S0490523030002 SFC:BQK473 SFC:BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 关注稳地产政策预期 2] ——建材周专题 2025W15 [Table_Summary2] 3 月统计局地产数据降幅收窄,关注稳地产政策预期 销量降幅边际收敛,价格结构性止跌。2025 年 1 季度全国商品房销售额/面积分别同比下降 2.1%/3.0%,3 月单月分别同比下 ...
W106市场观察:“平准基金”持仓详解和提振市场效果分析
长江证券· 2025-04-21 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 1 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] "平准基金"持仓详解和提振市场效果分析—— W106 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月 8 日,中央汇金公司有关负责人在答记者问上对于中央汇金类"平准基金"角色 作用做出了明确回应,表示:中央汇金公司一直是维护资本市场稳定的重要战略力量,自 2008 年以来,中央汇金公司多次参与维护资本市场稳定工作,积极提升资本市场的内在稳定性。作 为去年以来市场波动下的稳定增量,中央汇金资金体量、增持方向和节奏等对于市场走势有重 要参考作用。本篇围绕汇金持仓特征和增持后对于市场的正向影响效果进行详细展开。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC:S0490518120005 SFC:BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Title "平准基金2] "持仓详解和提振市场效果分析— —W106 市场观察 [Table_Summary2] 中央汇金到底增持了多少? 根据基金年报披露数据,截至 2024 年 12 月 ...
蓝思科技(300433):业绩大幅增长,继续看好多元业务成长机遇
长江证券· 2025-04-21 15:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 17.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 429 million yuan, up 38.71%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 378 million yuan, reflecting a 60.99% increase [2][6]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 12.8%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.51%, up 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. - The demand for consumer electronics is recovering, with the company benefiting from its position as a core supplier for Apple, which saw its market share increase from 17.5% in Q1 2024 to 19.0% in Q1 2025, with a 10% year-on-year sales growth [11]. - The company has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global delivery capabilities and address uncertainties in foreign trade due to geopolitical factors [11]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging businesses, leveraging its precision processing capabilities accumulated from the smartphone sector, focusing on areas such as foldable screens, humanoid robots, AI glasses, and smart vehicles [11]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 5.421 billion yuan, 7.249 billion yuan, and 8.256 billion yuan, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 17.063 billion yuan, a 10.10% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 429 million yuan, up 38.71%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 378 million yuan, reflecting a 60.99% increase. The gross margin was 12.8%, and the net profit margin was 2.51% [2][6]. Business Expansion - The company is applying for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global business layout and improve delivery capabilities in regions like Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico [11]. - The company is diversifying into new business areas, including foldable screens, humanoid robots, AI glasses, and smart vehicles, which are expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth [11]. Market Position - The company is a key supplier for Apple, benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics demand, with Apple’s market share increasing significantly in Q1 2025 [11].
三人行(605168):汽车、快消、运营商个别客户预算减少拖累业绩,持续布局全新增长曲线
长江证券· 2025-04-21 15:16
[Table_Summary] 公司公布 2024 年报:2024 年公司实现营业收入 42.08 亿元,同比下滑 20.35%;实现归属于 母公司净利润 1.23 亿元,同比下滑 76.65%;其中 2024Q4 公司实现营业收入 11.24 亿元,同 比下滑 19.62%,实现归属于母公司净利润-0.58 亿元,同比由盈转亏。汽车、快消、运营商等 行业个别客户减少投放拖累业绩,公司布局体彩新业务,积极投资新赛道,打造全新增长曲线, 同时升级多模态 AI 产品,提升智慧营销能力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高超 SAC:S0490516080001 SFC:BUX177 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨三人行(605168.SH) [Table_Title] 汽车、快消、运营商个别客户预算减少拖累业绩, 持续布局全新增长曲线 报告要点 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 三人行(605168.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 汽车、快消2] 、运营商个别客户预算减少拖累业 绩,持续布局全新增长曲线 ...
广和通(300638):模组业务量价齐升,机器人开启全新增长赛道
长江证券· 2025-04-21 15:16
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Viewpoints - The company's module business is experiencing growth in both volume and price, while the robotics sector is opening up new growth avenues. The AI terminal market is expected to expand, benefiting the company as it transitions from modules to complete solutions in AI toys and embodied intelligent robots [5][7]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 668 million yuan, up 18.53% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of the sale of the wireless vehicle-mounted business, the revenue growth was 23.34% [5][6]. - The company continues to invest in R&D, with an expenditure of 719 million yuan, maintaining its focus on innovation and enhancing its core competitiveness through a robust patent portfolio [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - DeepSeek has significantly reduced model inference costs through algorithm and engineering innovations, which may alter the value distribution within the AI industry chain. The transition from 4G to 5G and smart modules is expected to enhance the value of modules as AI terminals proliferate [5]. Company Performance - The company is poised to benefit from the growth in AI terminals and is expanding its capabilities in the AI toy and intelligent robotics sectors. The revenue and profit are expected to continue growing in 2025, even after excluding the impact of the wireless business [6][7]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 540 million yuan, 710 million yuan, and 890 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -19%, 31%, and 25%, respectively. The company is expected to maintain revenue and profit growth in 2025, excluding the effects of the wireless business [7].
IP衍生品行业跟踪:布鲁可加速推新,新IP系列、丰富SKU持续赋能成长
长江证券· 2025-04-21 14:50
联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] IP 衍生品行业跟踪:布鲁可加速推新,新 IP 系 列&丰富 SKU 持续赋能成长 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期布鲁可多款新产品上市,包括小黄人神奇版第 1 弹果酱工厂、火影忍者群星版第 3 弹、假 面骑士星光版第 3 弹、奥特伙伴神奇版第 2 弹等系列产品。截至 2024 年底,公司授权 IP 数量 约 50 个、SKU 数量约 682 个。公司持续兑现新 IP、新 SKU 产品扩张逻辑:1)IP 层面:去 年底至今公司新 IP 初音未来、新世纪福音战士(EVA)、芝麻街伙伴、小黄人、宝可梦、圣斗 士星矢等已成功上新,同时储备 IP 如三丽鸥、王者荣耀、柯南等有望上线;2)SKU 层面:2025 年以来新增 SKU 数量已超 130 个,后续上新速度有望加快。此外,国内下沉市场目前配合 9.9 元等产品加速开拓;海外东南亚、欧美等地渠道持续开拓,海外收入占比有望提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 蔡方羿 高超 仲敏丽 SAC:S0490516 ...