Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for cosmetics and medical beauty products is expected to remain stable in 2024, with a notable divergence in performance among key domestic brands, leading to both high growth and performance declines [3][4]. - The overall performance of the SW Beauty Index has shown a downward trend but began to rebound by the end of September due to policy support, making it one of the most watched sectors in consumer markets [3]. - Companies with strong performance in a stable environment are expected to benefit significantly in terms of stock price [3]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics Sector - **Brand Matrix and Growth**: - Proya is projected to achieve a revenue and net profit growth of 15% and 12% respectively in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 25% and 26% [3][4]. - Shiseido is expected to see a 60% revenue growth and a 75% increase in net profit for 2024 [3][4]. - Marubi is forecasted to have a 35% revenue growth and a 32% net profit increase in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 30% and 36% [3][4]. - **Niche Market Focus**: - Giant Bio is expected to grow its revenue and net profit by 45% and 35% respectively in 2024 [3][4]. - Mao Geping is projected to see a 39% revenue growth and a 41% net profit increase [3][4]. - **High Cost-Performance Consumption**: - Runben is expected to achieve a 30% revenue growth and a 10% net profit increase in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 27% and 37% [3][4]. - Furuida is projected to have flat revenue growth but a 15% increase in net profit for Q4 2024, with an overall annual decline of 13% and 19% [3][4]. Medical Beauty Sector - **Performance Forecast**: - Aimeike is expected to see a 5% revenue growth and a 5% net profit increase in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 8% and 10% [3][4]. - Longzi is projected to achieve a 10% revenue growth and a 10% net profit increase in Q4 2024, with an overall annual growth of 12% and 8% [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - **Recommended Companies**: - Proya, Shiseido, and Marubi are highlighted for their comprehensive brand matrix and strong growth potential [3][4]. - Companies like Giant Bio and Mao Geping are noted for their niche market strengths [3][4]. - Runben and Furuida are recommended for their high cost-performance products [3][4]. - **Companies to Watch**: - Attention is drawn to Shanghai Jahwa, Betaini, Huaxi Biological, and Shuyang for potential investment opportunities [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong retail performance in Q4, with expectations for sales to be catalyzed by the upcoming Winter Asian Games [6] - The company has been focusing on product innovation and brand enhancement, which is expected to drive growth in the coming years [6] - The financial forecasts indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a projected net profit of 10.9 billion RMB in FY2024 [6][17] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in billion RMB): FY2022: 69.6, FY2023: 84.23, FY2024E: 97.8, FY2025E: 111.3, FY2026E: 125.0 [3][17] - Year-on-year growth rate for revenue: FY2022: 17%, FY2023: 21%, FY2024E: 16%, FY2025E: 14%, FY2026E: 12% [3] - Net profit (in billion RMB): FY2022: 7.5, FY2023: 9.6, FY2024E: 10.9, FY2025E: 12.5, FY2026E: 14.2 [3][17] - Year-on-year growth rate for net profit: FY2022: 24%, FY2023: 29%, FY2024E: 13%, FY2025E: 15%, FY2026E: 13% [3] - Earnings per share (in RMB): FY2022: 0.36, FY2023: 0.46, FY2024E: 0.53, FY2025E: 0.61, FY2026E: 0.69 [3] Retail Performance - The company's main brand saw a 10% growth in offline sales in Q4, while children's clothing grew by 10-15% [6] - E-commerce sales increased by 30-35%, showing a significant acceleration compared to the previous quarter [6] - The inventory turnover ratio improved, with inventory levels decreasing to 4-4.5 months [6] Product and Brand Development - The company launched several successful products in Q4, including signature shoes and high-performance apparel [6] - As an official partner of the upcoming Winter Asian Games, the company is expected to enhance brand recognition and drive sales [6] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has been deepening its operational capabilities in product, brand, and channel management over the past few years [6] - The focus on high cost-performance products and strong functionality is expected to help the company gain market share and achieve growth faster than the industry average [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [21]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical role of smart technology in enhancing operational efficiency and driving sales growth in the automotive sector. Consumer interest in smart driving is increasing across various price segments, particularly in the 100,000 RMB range, where smart features can significantly boost sales [5][6]. - The year 2025 is projected to be pivotal for companies like Xiaopeng and BYD, which are expected to contribute significantly to market performance due to their competitive smart technology offerings [5][6]. - The potential for valuation transformation is highlighted for companies like Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control, with expectations of significant valuation increases as the robotics sector matures [6][9]. - Silver Wheel Co. is noted for its stable performance, with expectations of revenue recovery in the commercial vehicle sector and promising growth in data center cooling solutions by 2025 [10][11]. - Great Wall Motors is anticipated to strengthen its domestic and international market positions in 2025, with current valuations suggesting it is undervalued [12][14]. Summary by Sections Smart Technology Opportunities - The report discusses the increasing consumer prioritization of smart driving features, particularly in the 100,000 RMB price range, where smart technology can drive significant sales increases [5][6]. - Xiaopeng and BYD are expected to solidify their market positions in the 150,000 to 200,000 RMB range due to their high cost-performance ratio in smart technology [5]. Valuation Transformation for Top Group and Sanhua - The report anticipates a potential valuation transformation for Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control as the robotics sector progresses from 0 to 1 stage, with significant elasticity in their valuations expected by 2025 [6][9]. - Historical valuation trends show that both companies experienced substantial increases during the 2020 new energy industry boom, suggesting strong upside potential in the current market context [7][9]. Silver Wheel Co. Update - Silver Wheel Co. is projected to see stable performance, with a recovery in commercial vehicle revenue expected in 2025, supported by an expansion in the scrappage policy for older vehicles [10][11]. - The company is also focusing on data center cooling solutions, which are expected to see significant growth in 2025, enhancing revenue prospects [10][11]. Great Wall Motors Update - Great Wall Motors is expected to enhance its competitiveness in both domestic and international markets in 2025, with current valuations indicating it is undervalued [12][14]. - The company has seen strong order performance for its Tank series and is expected to maintain sales momentum through product updates and new launches [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for long-term growth [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned well within the sports nutrition industry, which is expected to experience significant growth. The report highlights the company's comprehensive advantages and forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5% for its core sports nutrition products from 2020 to 2023, with a projected revenue of 1.336 billion yuan in 2025 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2001, has evolved from focusing on competitive sports to entering the mass market and military supply sectors. It has developed four main business segments, including sports nutrition products, health nutrition products, military supply, and digital sports technology services [6][22]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 988 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.1%. By 2026, the revenue is expected to reach 1.783 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 33.4% from 2024 to 2026. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 113 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 32.6% [5][6]. Market Analysis - The sports nutrition market in China reached a size of 17.2 billion USD by the end of 2023, with a penetration rate of 26.5% among the domestic fitness population, significantly lower than in mature markets like Europe and the USA. This indicates substantial room for growth as consumer awareness and demand for health and fitness products increase [6][7]. Business Segments - The company’s primary business segment, sports nutrition products, is experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 28.5% from 2020 to 2023. The report emphasizes the potential for further expansion into the mass market and the importance of product innovation to meet diverse consumer needs [6][29]. Investment Analysis - The report predicts that the company will achieve net profits of 0.85 billion yuan, 1.13 billion yuan, and 1.44 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 17, and 13, respectively. The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 2.2 billion yuan, representing a potential upside of 12% from the current share price [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [2][9]. Core Views - The company leverages its strong chemical synthesis and process scaling capabilities to create a diversified platform for customized new materials, expanding its business from liquid crystal displays to OLED materials, pharmaceuticals, photoresists, and polyimide [6][8][20]. - The expected net profits for 2024-2026 are projected to be CNY 242 million, CNY 329 million, and CNY 412 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 17, and 13 [6][9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the display materials sector, particularly in OLED materials, which are expected to see significant growth due to increasing penetration rates and demand from the consumer electronics market [10][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Chemical Synthesis and Process Scaling - The company started with liquid crystal materials and has diversified into various sectors, including OLED materials and pharmaceuticals, utilizing its core organic synthesis and purification technologies [20][21]. - It has established itself as a strategic supplier for major international companies in the liquid crystal and OLED sectors, with a robust product pipeline [22][30]. 2. Display Industry Recovery - The display materials segment is expected to recover steadily, with OLED materials showing rapid growth due to increased market demand and technological advancements [46][48]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the domestic LCD market's growth, which has seen a significant shift towards local suppliers [50][54]. 3. Pharmaceutical CDMO Business - The company is expanding its CDMO business by integrating intermediate and active pharmaceutical ingredients, with a strong pipeline of over 200 products [22][30]. - Collaborations with international pharmaceutical companies enhance its market presence and growth potential in the pharmaceutical sector [22][30]. 4. Platform Development in Electronic Materials - The company has been developing semiconductor photoresists and other electronic materials since 2015, with new products expected to enter the market and drive growth [11][20]. - The platform approach is anticipated to yield significant growth opportunities as new products gain traction in the market [11][20]. 5. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of CNY 1.49 billion, CNY 1.82 billion, and CNY 2.14 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 23.3%, 22.3%, and 17.6% [7][9]. - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is estimated at 22X for 2025, while the company is expected to have a P/E of 17X in 2024, indicating a favorable valuation [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance for Q4 2024, with a projected net profit of 27.26-47.26 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.0-166.9% [7]. - The growth in honeycomb core materials continues, driven by rapid developments in aerospace and rail transportation, with a projected increase of over 60% in the domestic honeycomb core materials sector for the first three quarters of 2024 [7]. - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in the traditional electrical insulation sector due to the upgrade of power grids in Europe and the U.S., which will increase demand for transformers and, consequently, for aramid paper [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 340 million yuan in 2023 to 660 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25.4% [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 82 million yuan in 2023 to 174 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 30.0% [6][9]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve from 34.0% in 2023 to 41.8% in 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned in the automotive aftermarket, focusing on non-wear parts, and is expected to benefit from the growth in automotive electronics as a new growth driver [6][14]. - The automotive aftermarket is characterized by its anti-cyclical nature, with key indicators such as vehicle ownership, average vehicle age, and mileage driving demand stability [6][34]. - The North American market shows a stable growth trajectory, while the domestic market is witnessing a significant trend towards electrification, indicating a turning point for non-wear parts demand [6][34]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 737 million, 902 million, and 1,091 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.0%, 22.4%, and 20.9% [5][7]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 101 million, 119 million, and 137 million for the same years, with growth rates of 45.6%, 17.4%, and 14.7% respectively [5][7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 17.1%, 17.2%, and 17.0% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E [5][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong presence in the automotive aftermarket for over 21 years, providing comprehensive solutions for non-wear parts across various vehicle models [6][14]. - The company has diversified its customer base, reducing reliance on top clients from 70.72% in 2019 to 51.23% in 2024H1, while increasing its cross-border e-commerce client base [6][7]. - The company is actively investing in automotive electronics, launching 2,000 to 3,000 new product models annually, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth [6][22]. Industry Insights - The automotive aftermarket is expected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market projected to reach 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 8.97% from 2023 to 2027 [6][34]. - The complexity of automotive parts is increasing, leading to a shift towards a product and service competition model, which favors platform-based suppliers [6][34]. - The demand for non-wear parts in the electric vehicle segment is anticipated to increase, driven by higher maintenance costs compared to traditional fuel vehicles [6][50].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba (BABA) is maintained as "Buy" [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) and CMR (Customer Management Revenue) growth, alongside the divestment of non-core assets to focus on core businesses [9][12]. - Alibaba's strategic focus is on enhancing user experience and fostering growth in its core e-commerce and cloud operations, with significant investments in overseas expansion and AI commercialization [14]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For FY3Q25, the forecasted revenue is RMB 275 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, with an adjusted EBITA of RMB 51.3 billion, a decline of 3% year-on-year, and an adjusted EBITA margin of 19% [9][10]. - The expected Non-GAAP net profit for FY3Q25 is RMB 46.6 billion, also down 3% year-on-year [9]. - Revenue growth projections by business segment include: Taotian (+1.7%), International Business Digital Commerce Group (+25.8%), Local Life Group (+13.0%), Cainiao Group (+10.0%), Cloud Intelligence Group (+9.4%), Great Entertainment Group (+5.0%), and other businesses (+3.0%) [9][11]. Strategic Developments - Alibaba is divesting non-core assets, including the sale of its 99% stake in Intime Retail for approximately RMB 7.4 billion, and the sale of a 78.70% stake in Sun Art Retail for up to HK$ 13.138 billion [12][13]. - The company has repurchased 119 million ordinary shares, totaling US$ 1.3 billion, resulting in a net reduction of 0.6% in outstanding shares [12][13]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The report anticipates continued growth in international operations, particularly in the Middle East, Europe, Japan, and South Korea, with a focus on major promotional events [11]. - The cloud business is expected to achieve double-digit growth, driven by AI and public cloud strategies, with stable profitability anticipated [11].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's sales performance exceeded expectations, with Anta brand achieving high single-digit growth in Q4 2024 and FILA brand showing significant improvement from the previous quarter [7] - The company's multi-brand strategy is robust, with Anta's main brand growing steadily and FILA focusing on high-end fashion, while new outdoor brands continue to show strong momentum [7] - The company's share buyback program is progressing rapidly, with 16.06 million shares repurchased between December 20, 2024, and January 9, 2025, demonstrating confidence in long-term development [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for FY2022 was RMB 536.5 billion, increasing to RMB 623.6 billion in FY2023, with projected revenues of RMB 686.0 billion, RMB 743.5 billion, and RMB 808.6 billion for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 75.9 billion in FY2022, rising to RMB 102.4 billion in FY2023, with forecasts of RMB 134.1 billion, RMB 135.7 billion, and RMB 150.7 billion for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] - Gross margin improved from 60.2% in FY2022 to 62.6% in FY2023, with further increases expected to 63.3%, 64.0%, and 64.6% in FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] Brand Performance - Anta brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's business growing at low double-digit rates [7] - FILA brand saw high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's business turning from negative growth in Q3 to mid-single-digit growth [7] - New outdoor brands, including Kolon Sport and DESCENTE, showed strong performance with Q4 2024 growth rates of 60-65% and 45-50% respectively [7] Channel Performance - Online sales outperformed offline, with Anta's e-commerce growing at high double-digit rates in Q4 2024 [7] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, the company's e-commerce GMV reached RMB 11.1 billion, securing the top position in the industry without excessive discounting [7] - Offline channels continued to innovate, with the introduction of high-value-for-money Super Anta stores capturing price-sensitive consumers effectively [7] Inventory and Discounts - Inventory levels remained healthy, with Anta and FILA's inventory-to-sales ratio at around 5x [7] - Discount levels improved steadily, with Anta's online discounts improving by 1 percentage point year-on-year in Q4 2024, while offline discounts remained stable at around 7.2% [7] International Expansion - The company is steadily advancing its overseas expansion, focusing on Southeast Asia and the Middle East, while also planning to open a direct retail store in Los Angeles and launch cross-border e-commerce in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Xtep International's Q4 2024 retail performance met expectations, with the main brand achieving high single-digit growth across all channels, driven by functional running shoes, which grew by approximately 30% in 2024 [5] - Saucony, a subsidiary brand, continued its strong performance with a 50% growth in Q4 2024 and over 60% growth for the full year, surpassing the RMB 1 billion retail sales milestone in 2024 [5] - Online sales outperformed offline, with the main brand's e-commerce sales growing over 20% in Q4 2024, while offline sales saw low single-digit growth despite reduced foot traffic [5] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of around 4 months for the main brand, and discount rates improved year-over-year, indicating robust operational quality [5] - The company plans to further optimize its multi-brand strategy, focusing on core running businesses and enhancing the brand image of Saucony by opening flagship stores in first-tier cities [5] - Xtep International's full-year performance is expected to be positive, with inventory levels projected to decrease and cash flow improving, driven by strong retail recovery in Q4 2024 [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for FY2024E is projected at RMB 13.3 billion, a 7% decline year-over-year, but expected to grow by 9% in FY2025E and FY2026E to RMB 14.5 billion and RMB 15.8 billion, respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow by 20% in FY2024E to RMB 1.24 billion, followed by 13% and 9% growth in FY2025E and FY2026E, reaching RMB 1.39 billion and RMB 1.51 billion, respectively [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 45% from FY2024E to FY2026E, while the P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 11x in FY2024E to 9x in FY2026E [4] Channel and Inventory Performance - The main brand's average monthly store sales in H1 2024 were approximately RMB 190,000, with further improvements expected by year-end due to flagship store expansions and operational optimizations [5] - The main brand's discount rate in Q4 2024 was 7-7.5%, slightly deeper than the previous quarter due to promotional activities but improved compared to the same period in 2023 [5] - Saucony's flagship stores in Beijing and Shanghai achieved monthly sales exceeding RMB 600,000, showcasing strong brand performance in key markets [5] Strategic Focus and Future Plans - Xtep International plans to continue optimizing its channel structure by introducing new running store formats in 2025, with over 60% of the main brand's stores already upgraded to the ninth generation [5] - The company will increase investment in Saucony, focusing on product and channel expansion, including the introduction of new SKUs such as commuter, OG, and retro series, aiming to make Saucony a key growth driver over the next five years [5] - The company has divested its fashion sports brand to focus on core running businesses, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage in the professional sports segment [5]