Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [9][18]. Core Insights - Inditex, the parent company of Zara, reported strong performance for the first three quarters of FY2025, with revenue growth of 2.7% year-on-year to €28.2 billion, and a net profit increase of 3.9% to €4.6 billion [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sportswear sector amidst a fluctuating consumer environment, predicting that it will outperform the broader apparel market [3][17]. - The report highlights the importance of inventory management, noting that Inditex's inventory quality remains healthy, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% to €4.499 billion [1][15]. Summary by Sections Inditex Performance - Inditex's revenue for FY2025's first three quarters reached €28.2 billion, with a currency-neutral growth of 6.2%. Q3 revenue alone grew by 4.9% to €9.8 billion [1][13]. - Gross margin improved by 0.27 percentage points to 59.7% for the first three quarters, with Q3 gross margin rising by 0.79 percentage points to 62.2% [1][13]. - The company aims for a 5% increase in total sales area from 2025 to 2026, while maintaining stable gross margins [2][15]. Sportswear Sector Outlook - The sportswear segment is expected to show strong long-term growth, with recommended stocks including Anta Sports and Li Ning, which have projected PE ratios of 14 and 17 for FY2026, respectively [3][17]. - The report also suggests that Nike's retail operations in Greater China are undergoing a turnaround, with a current PE ratio of 13 for the recommended stock, Tmall [3][17]. Apparel Manufacturing and Brand Recommendations - The apparel manufacturing sector is anticipated to see improved orders in 2026, with recommendations for companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which have attractive valuations [3][18]. - The report highlights the potential for steady growth in the down jacket segment, recommending Bosideng, with a projected PE of 12 for FY2026 [18]. Market Performance - The brand apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.13%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.59% [21][22]. - Key stocks such as Red Dragonfly and Luolai Life saw significant weekly gains, while others like Jiuwu Wang faced declines [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks within the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural improvement in consumer spending, particularly in the liquor and mass-market product segments, with a strong recovery in consumption during the New Year holiday [1][2]. - The focus is on the market transformation of Moutai, which aims to enhance its market presence and adapt to consumer demands, while also emphasizing the importance of supply-side improvements and dividend strategies for long-term investments [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Moutai has initiated a market-oriented transformation, focusing on a consumer-centric approach and enhancing its product portfolio, including a pyramid structure for product offerings [3]. - The report suggests investing in both supply-side improvements and long-term leaders like Moutai and Wuliangye, with a positive outlook for gradual demand recovery in 2026 [3]. Mass-Market Products - The report notes a robust recovery in consumer spending during the New Year holiday, with significant growth in dining and dairy products, indicating a clear upward trend in both volume and price [1][2]. - Key companies to watch include Yili, Anjuke Foods, and Qingdao Beer, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [1]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The craft beer segment has seen over 100% growth in sales, while fruit-flavored beers have increased by over 70%, reflecting a trend among younger consumers [4]. - New product launches, such as the 1L juice from Uni-President, are positioned to attract consumers with competitive pricing and quality [4]. Consumer Behavior - The report emphasizes the high engagement in experiential consumption during the holiday season, with travel and shopping activities showing significant year-on-year growth [2][7]. - The report also highlights the impact of government-issued consumption vouchers in stimulating retail sales across major cities [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [5] Core Views - The domestic flight ticket bookings for the New Year period in 2026 exceeded 3.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 28%, while international flight bookings surpassed 740,000, up 14% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [1][2] - The report remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation sector under the themes of "expanding domestic demand" and "anti-involution" [2][12] - In the oil shipping sector, attention is drawn to the support for freight rates during the off-season and the timing of investments, particularly focusing on China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][15] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 0.70% during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.83 percentage points [18] - The best-performing segments were air transportation and warehousing logistics, with increases of 5.14% and 0.41%, respectively [18][19] Travel - The report highlights the strong recovery in air travel demand, with a focus on the low growth rate of capacity supply and the continuous recovery of demand, which is expected to narrow the supply-demand gap [2][12] Shipping and Ports - Oil shipping rates have continued to decline, with VLCC market rates dropping to $34,158 per day as of December 31 [3][13] - The dry bulk shipping indices have also seen a decline, with the BDI index at 1,882 points on January 2, 2026 [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support for freight rates during the off-season and the potential impact of geopolitical developments on shipping logistics [15] Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: 1. Expansion into overseas markets, with Jitu Express planning significant investments in new market operations [4][16] 2. The impact of anti-involution on the industry, where the growth rate is slowing due to increased competition and rising prices, leading to a concentration of market share among leading companies [4][17]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry Core Insights - The transportation sector is experiencing robust growth in both domestic and international travel, with a significant increase in cross-regional personnel flow during the 2026 New Year holiday, reaching 590 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [1] - Domestic tourism demand is strong, with ticket bookings for scenic spots increasing over fourfold compared to the previous year, and inbound travel also showing significant growth due to relaxed visa policies [2] - The young demographic, particularly families with children and the Z generation, is driving travel demand, with family trips increasing by over 80% during the holiday period [3] Summary by Sections Transportation Demand - The total cross-regional personnel flow during the 2026 New Year holiday is expected to average 198 million trips per day, with daily figures showing a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [1] - Railway and road transport have seen notable growth, with railway passenger volume increasing by up to 78% year-on-year during the holiday [4] - Air travel also performed well, with a year-on-year increase in passenger volume of 21.2% on the first day of the holiday [5] Travel Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in travel spending, with average purchases and spending per traveler rising by over 20% and 30% respectively [3] - Short-distance travel remains a popular choice, with nearly 70% of travelers opting for 2-3 day trips, supported by the popularity of "4-hour high-speed rail circles" [4] - Self-driving travel is on the rise, with domestic car rental bookings increasing by over 120% during the holiday [4] International Travel - Inbound travel is experiencing a strong resurgence, with inbound flight bookings increasing by 20% on the first day of the holiday and ticket bookings for attractions rising by 110% [2] - The report notes that outbound travel is also thriving, with a year-on-year increase of over 40% in travelers heading to popular international destinations [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the chemical industry, indicating that there are excellent investment opportunities almost every year driven by various factors such as market cycles and supply-side reforms [3][4]. - In 2024, the report anticipates a continuation of value dividend styles in the first half, with growth opportunities emerging in specific sectors by the end of September [4]. - The report identifies significant growth in the chemical sector, particularly in lithium battery materials and AI-related technologies, with companies like Jiangsu Hualin and Yunnan Tin expected to perform well [4][25]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of the energy storage market, predicting explosive growth in demand driven by reforms in pricing and capacity subsidies, with China's market share in energy storage cells exceeding 93% [25][26]. - It notes that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been rising sharply, indicating strong demand and cost pressures in the battery supply chain [29][30]. - The report discusses the structural tightness in lithium iron phosphate production, driven by increased demand for energy storage, with production in the first nine months of the year showing a 70.2% year-on-year increase [33]. Group 3 - The report outlines the correlation between oil prices and the performance of the chemical sector, suggesting that chemical stocks tend to outperform during periods of rising oil prices [34][35]. - It predicts that if oil prices enter a phase of recovery, the petrochemical sector could present strategic investment opportunities [34][40]. - The report provides forecasts for global oil demand and supply, indicating a potential oversupply situation in the international oil market, which could impact chemical sector performance [40]. Group 4 - The report discusses the transformative potential of AI in chemical research and development, highlighting the emergence of AI for Science as a new paradigm that could lead to significant market growth [42][44]. - It identifies companies like Crystal Technology as leaders in the AI for Science space, leveraging AI and robotics to enhance chemical research efficiency [49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality data in AI-driven research, suggesting that the future of AI in science will depend on the availability of robust datasets [48].

Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold remains a strong investment, with central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings, and gold ETFs experiencing sustained inflows during the interest rate cut cycle, indicating a bullish trend for gold prices [1][20] - Silver is expected to see significant price increases, driven by financial demand rather than industrial demand, with the gold-silver ratio indicating that silver is undervalued compared to gold [1][20] Industrial Metals - Copper is projected to experience a bullish market due to a clear supply-demand gap, supported by macroeconomic factors such as tariff reductions and increased capital expenditures, alongside strong demand from the energy and AI sectors [2][3] - Aluminum supply may face constraints due to high demand from data centers, with potential production risks and a tightening global supply-demand balance expected in 2026 [3] - Tin supply is limited due to global resource scarcity, while demand is expected to rise from the semiconductor and AI sectors, leading to a price increase [4] - Nickel prices are anticipated to recover as supply disruptions in Indonesia continue to impact the market [4] Energy Metals - Lithium demand is expected to surge, particularly from energy storage applications, with supply growth projected to slow down due to reduced capital expenditures by producers [7] - Cobalt prices are likely to rise due to export controls from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will create a supply gap that cannot be compensated by increases in Indonesian production [8] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to persistent supply-demand imbalances, with limited new supply expected before 2027 [9] - Antimony prices are projected to remain high due to rigid supply constraints and potential easing of export controls, which could enhance price elasticity [10] - The rare earth sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with prices likely to rise as demand from electric vehicles and robotics increases [11]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 31 年 月 日 宏观点评 1、2026"两新"政策的 4 大关注点： >时点看，政策主动靠前发力，释放了抢开局、力争 2026 年经济"开 门红"的信号。2026 年"两新"通知于 2025 年 12 月 29 日提前下达， 较"2025 年 1 月 5 日下达 2025 年通知"提前了一周，清晰地释放了政策 主动靠前发力的信号，也释放了 2026 年经济"开门红"的信号。 >规模看，2026 年"以旧换新"力度可能有所退坡、总规模可能低于 2025 年的 3000 亿，节奏可能也会更平滑。2026 年首批"以旧换新" 资金为 625 亿元，低于 2025 年各季度单期规模（四个季度 810、810、 690、690 亿），再结合部分品类补贴标准的下调，指向 2026 年全年"以 旧换新"的补贴规模很可能会有所退坡、总额度可能会低于2025年的3000 亿元（（单单 4 次均为 625 亿元，对应 2026 年总补贴规模为 2500 亿元）。 此外，从节奏看，2025 年四次补贴是上半年高于下半年；而本轮首批规模 相对收敛，预示 2026 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 31 年 月 日 海外市场 2026 年五大猜想：入口争夺大年 猜想一：模型能力有望持续突破。展望未来，我们认为 AI 模型能力仍处于持续进 化通道，2026 年有望在加强多模态推理与生成能力、提升超长上下文处理能力及 降低模型幻觉率等维度上取得突破。在应用场景方面，这有望促进内容产业工业 化、世界模型演进，也有望加速智能体迭代、及支撑 AI 向更专业的行业级与科研 级应用延伸。 猜想二：AI 应用进入流量入口争夺大年。1）在 C 端入口的争夺上，头部互联网 厂商如阿里巴巴、字节跳动、腾讯等凭借领先的模型能力与丰富的业务生态，具备 先发优势。2）B 端应用方面，AI Coding、AI 营销、AI4S 有望成为率先突围的领 域。我们预计 2026 年，C 端入口的争夺会演化为软硬结合与生态丰富度的竞争， 而 B 端应用的渗透率会随着模型多模态、上下文处理、幻觉率优化等能力的提升 而持续加速。 猜想三：端侧智能硬件迎来安卓时刻。展望 2026，我们认为，端侧硬件中，1）手 机和 PC 市场或因存储成本上涨而带来终端销量承压，但折叠机等创新点仍 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report predicts that the defense industry will gradually enter a recovery phase in 2026, driven by increased military spending and the release of backlog orders from the previous five-year plan [2][19][20] - The military expenditure is expected to rise significantly, with a notable increase in defense budgets across various countries, indicating a positive trend for the global military market [23][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of military trade, particularly in light of recent geopolitical events that have opened up long-term growth opportunities for the industry [15][46] Group 2: Focus Areas - Key areas of focus include main battle equipment such as missiles, unmanned systems, and new production models, as well as military trade which is anticipated to reshape the global market [3][25] - In the realm of new combat capabilities, attention is directed towards military AI, aerospace satellites, and deep-sea technology, which are expected to drive innovation and growth [4][25] - The report highlights the significance of military-civilian integration, particularly in sectors like nuclear fusion and large aircraft manufacturing, which present substantial market opportunities [5][26] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that are well-positioned in the market, have strong pricing power, and are likely to benefit from military trade and new equipment production [6][38] - Specific companies to watch include those involved in missile production, unmanned systems, and new equipment, which are expected to experience significant growth in the coming years [27][29] - The report suggests that the military trade sector is poised for a transformation, with increased global military spending driving demand for military equipment and services [41][46]

Strategy Overview - The report analyzes the historical occurrences of the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing an "eight consecutive days of gains" scenario, providing insights into market behavior and potential future trends [1][4][32]. Historical Performance of "Eight Consecutive Gains" - The first occurrence from November 14 to November 23, 2006, was during the second wave of a bull market, driven by strong bank stock performance as banks prepared for IPOs [1][15]. - The second occurrence from January 28 to February 6, 2013, marked the end of a rebound phase after a significant decline, with the index facing resistance at a double top before retreating [2][16]. - The third instance, known as "nine consecutive gains," occurred from March 11 to March 23, 2015, as part of a strong upward breakout in a bull market, catalyzed by monetary policy easing and reform announcements [3][21]. - The fourth instance, "eleven consecutive gains," from December 28, 2017, to January 12, 2018, was characterized by a false breakout at a major resistance level, leading to a significant correction [4][24]. - The fifth occurrence from February 6 to February 23, 2024, was an early-stage rebound amid economic concerns, with the index showing signs of a potential upward trend but later facing downward pressure [3][27]. Current Market Context - The current "eight consecutive gains" scenario, starting December 17, 2025, is set against a backdrop of weak economic fundamentals and moderate liquidity, with the RMB appreciating primarily due to short-term settlement factors [6][32]. - The technical characteristics of the current index movement suggest an upward continuation pattern, although it is not in a strong upward trend compared to previous bull markets [6][32]. - The cumulative gain during this current "eight consecutive gains" is notably lower than in past occurrences, indicating a cautious outlook for sustained upward momentum [6][32]. Market Performance and Policy Events - The A-share market has shown a significant rebound, with trading volumes returning to 2 trillion RMB, driven by the appreciation of the RMB and sector-specific performances, particularly in commercial aerospace and metals [7][35]. - The report highlights a divergence in sector performance, with notable gains in industries such as non-ferrous metals and electric equipment, while consumer sectors are beginning to realize profits from previous policy-driven gains [8][44]. - The report also notes that the overall market risk appetite has slightly increased, as indicated by the A-share equity risk premium (ERP) [7][35].