Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. Overnight funds prices slightly increased, while 7 - day funds prices declined. Short - end interest rates dropped due to loose funds and regulatory expectations, while the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds weakened. CD yields generally declined, and there was a net CD recovery. Government bond supply increased this week, and the inter - bank leverage ratio rose [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamentals - The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. Reverse repurchase had a net injection of 658 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase had a net injection of - 1000 billion yuan. Overnight funds prices slightly increased (R001 rose to 1.40% from 1.39%, DR001 remained basically unchanged at 1.32%), and 7 - day funds prices declined (R007 fell to 1.48% from 1.50%, DR007 fell to 1.42% from 1.46%). The spread between DR007 and 7 - day OMO was 2.09bp, and the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer and discount rate was 1.17% [1] - The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank market was 8.37 trillion yuan (previous value: 8.57 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107.26% (previous value: 106.98%) [3] 2. Interbank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - CD yields generally declined. The 3M yield dropped 3.5bp to 1.47%, the 6M yield dropped 4.0bp to 1.47%, and the 1Y yield dropped 1.75bp to 1.52%. The spread between 1 - year CDs and R007 widened 0.89bp to 3.81bp [2] - There was a net CD recovery this week. The net CD financing was - 403.1 billion yuan (previous value: - 161.9 billion yuan). The weighted - average issuance term was 8.0M (previous value: 8.3M), with 3M CDs issued 86.99 billion yuan, 6M CDs issued 202.57 billion yuan, and 1Y CDs issued 263.36 billion yuan [3] 3. Institutional Behavior - The inter - bank leverage ratio rose. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank market was 8.37 trillion yuan (previous value: 8.57 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107.26% (previous value: 106.98%) [3]

- Model Name: Timing Radar Six-Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on a multi-dimensional perspective to time the market, considering factors such as liquidity, economic conditions, valuation, capital flow, technical indicators, and crowding; Model Construction Process: The model selects 21 indicators from the aforementioned dimensions and categorizes them into four main categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macroeconomic Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal." These indicators are then used to generate a comprehensive timing score ranging between [-1,1]; Model Evaluation: The model provides a comprehensive view of market conditions from multiple dimensions, offering a nuanced perspective on market timing[1][6][8] - Factor Name: Liquidity Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor aims to determine the direction of current monetary policy; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the average change in central bank policy tool rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days. If the factor is greater than 0, it indicates a loose monetary policy, and if less than 0, it indicates a tight monetary policy; Current View: This week, the liquidity direction factor is greater than 0, signaling a bullish signal with a score of 1[10][12] - Factor Name: Liquidity Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor is based on the "interest rate corridor" concept to measure the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1, smoothed and z-scored to form the liquidity strength factor. If the factor is less than -1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a loose environment for the next 120 trading days with a score of 1, and if greater than 1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a tight environment with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the liquidity strength factor score is 0, indicating a neutral signal[13][15] - Factor Name: Credit Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the tightness of credit transmission from commercial banks to the real economy; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the monthly value of medium and long-term loans, the incremental value over the past 12 months, and the year-over-year change. If the factor rises compared to three months ago, it signals a bullish view with a score of 1, and if it falls, it signals a bearish view with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the credit direction factor is identified as an upward trend, signaling a bullish view with a score of 1[16][18] - Factor Name: Credit Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures whether credit indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as (new RMB loans for the month - median expectation) / standard deviation of expectations. If the factor is greater than 1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a significantly above-expectation environment for the next 60 trading days with a score of 1, and if less than -1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a significantly below-expectation environment with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the credit strength factor score is 0[20][22] - Factor Name: Growth Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor is based on PMI data to measure the direction of economic growth; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the 12-month average of PMI data (including official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and Caixin manufacturing PMI) and the year-over-year change. If the factor rises compared to three months ago, it signals a bullish view with a score of 1, and if it falls, it signals a bearish view with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the growth direction factor is identified as a downward trend, signaling a bearish view with a score of -1[23][25] - Factor Name: Growth Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures whether economic growth indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the PMI expectation deviation = (PMI - median expectation) / standard deviation of expectations. If the factor is greater than 1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a significantly above-expectation environment for the next 60 trading days with a score of 1, and if less than -1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a significantly below-expectation environment with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the growth strength factor score is -1, signaling a bearish view[26][28] - Factor Name: Inflation Direction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the current inflation level's impact on monetary policy; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as 0.5 × smoothed CPI year-over-year value + 0.5 × raw PPI year-over-year value. If the factor decreases compared to three months ago, it indicates a downward inflation environment, signaling a bullish view with a score of 1, and if it increases, it signals a bearish view with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the inflation direction factor is identified as an upward trend, signaling a bearish view with a score of -1[29][31] - Factor Name: Inflation Strength Factor; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures whether inflation indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the average of CPI and PPI expectation deviations = (reported value - median expectation) / standard deviation of expectations. If the factor is less than -1.5, it indicates a significantly below-expectation environment for the next 60 trading days with a score of 1, and if greater than 1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a significantly above-expectation environment with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the inflation strength factor score is -1, signaling a bearish view[32][33] - Factor Name: Shiller ERP; Factor Construction Idea: This factor adjusts for economic cycle fluctuations in corporate earnings to assess current market valuation levels; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated using the average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 6 years to compute the Shiller PE, then calculating Shiller ERP = 1 / Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield, and z-scoring the past 6 years to obtain the score; Current View: This week, the Shiller ERP score is 0.05, up by 0.09 points[34][35][38] - Factor Name: PB; Factor Construction Idea: This factor follows a similar process to ERP for PB; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as PB × (-1) and z-scored over the past 6 years, truncated at 1.5 standard deviations and standardized to a range of ±1; Current View: This week, the PB score is -0.57, up by 0.17 points[36][37] - Factor Name: AIAE; Factor Construction Idea: This factor reflects the overall market risk preference based on the aggregate investor allocation to equities; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as AIAE = total market cap of CSI All Share Index / (total market cap of CSI All Share Index + total debt of the real economy), then AIAE × (-1) and z-scored over the past 6 years to obtain the score; Current View: This week, the AIAE score is -0.80, up by 0.20 points[39][40] - Factor Name: Margin Trading Increment; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures market sentiment based on the source of leverage funds; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the difference between margin financing balance and margin securities balance, and the average increment over the past 120 days compared to the past 240 days. If the 120-day average increment is greater than the 240-day average increment, it signals a bullish view with a score of 1, and if less, it signals a bearish view with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the short-term margin trading increment is less than the long-term increment, signaling a bearish view with a score of -1[42][44] - Factor Name: Trading Volume Trend; Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures market trading activity and capital flow; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the log trading volume moving average distance = ma120 / ma240 - 1. If the max(10) = max(30) = max(60), it signals a bullish view with a score of 1, and if the min(10) = min(30) = min(60), it signals a bearish view with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the trading volume signal is neutral with a score of 0[45][47] - Factor Name: China Sovereign CDS Spread; Factor Construction Idea: This factor represents the pricing level of China's economic and sovereign credit risk by overseas investors; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the 20-day difference of the smoothed CDS spread. If the 20-day difference is less than 0, it signals a bullish view with a score of 1, and if greater than 0, it signals a bearish view with a score of -1; Current View: This week, the 20-day difference of the CDS spread is greater than 0, signaling a bearish view with a score of -1[48][50] - Factor Name: Overseas Risk Aversion Index; Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures overseas market risk preference; Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated as the 20-day difference of the smoothed Citi RAI Index. If the 20-day difference is less than 0, it signals a bullish view with a score

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378.HK) [6] Core Views - In 2025, China Hongqiao achieved a revenue of 162.35 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of 22.64 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1% [1] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the second half of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in alumina prices and reduced aluminum processing sales [1] - The company has made significant advancements in new materials, technologies, and processes, solidifying its leading position in the global aluminum alloy materials and green manufacturing sectors [3] - The cash dividend for 2025 was 14.475 billion RMB, with a payout ratio of 64%, reflecting the company's operational confidence [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 was 162.35 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 4% year-on-year [5] - The net profit for 2025 was 22.64 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 1.2% year-on-year [5] - The estimated net profit for 2026-2028 is projected to be 32.27 billion RMB, 36.55 billion RMB, and 40.68 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.4, 8.3, and 7.4 [4] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2025 was 25.6%, with an expected increase in profitability in the coming years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market value of HKD 163.6 billion, corresponding to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 25 times for 2026 [5][7]. Core Insights - The company has raised its revenue guidance for the coming years to 60%, expecting significant growth driven by strong demand for its automotive product solutions, particularly the J6 series [1][3]. - The company anticipates a revenue of HKD 3.76 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.7%, with automotive solutions contributing HKD 1.62 billion, a 144% increase [1][2]. - The company is focusing on continuous product upgrades, with the HSD product showing high user acceptance and plans for subscription-based revenue models [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The projected revenue for 2025 is HKD 3.76 billion, with a gross profit of HKD 2.43 billion and a gross margin of 64.5% [2][14]. - The automotive product solutions are expected to have a gross margin of 34.5%, while the licensing and service segment is projected to maintain a high margin of 94.5% [2][14]. - The company is investing heavily in R&D, with expenses expected to reach HKD 5.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a commitment to maintaining competitive advantages [2][3]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company plans to release new products, including the Agentic Car Soc and Agentic Car OS, which are designed to enhance the integration of driving and cabin technologies [3][4]. - The company aims to significantly increase its MPI (Miles Per Intervention) from tens of kilometers in 2025 to thousands of kilometers by 2027, with plans to pilot Robotaxi operations in specific cities [4][5]. - The company is expanding its international presence, securing contracts with three international car manufacturers for overseas models, and increasing the number of models from joint ventures [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are HKD 5.76 billion, HKD 9.24 billion, and HKD 14.85 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 53%, 60%, and 61% [5][14]. - The company anticipates a GAAP net loss of HKD 10.47 billion in 2025, with adjusted net losses expected to decrease over the following years [5][14]. - The non-GAAP net profit is projected to improve from a loss of HKD 2.81 billion in 2026 to breakeven by 2028 [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company has shown better growth in its brokerage business compared to the industry, with diversified business profitability improving [1] - Despite a decline in adjusted net profit, the company is expected to see significant performance improvement due to increased market share and cost reduction measures [4] - The home decoration and rental businesses are experiencing continuous growth, with notable improvements in profitability [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company's net revenue reached 94.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 30.4% to 5.02 billion RMB [1] - The gross margin fell from 24.6% in 2024 to 21.4% in 2025, primarily due to reduced revenue from high-margin existing and new home businesses [1] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a net revenue of 22.2 billion RMB, a decline of 28.7% year-on-year, attributed to high base effects from previous periods [1] Business Segment Performance - The existing home revenue in 2025 was 25 billion RMB, down 11.3% year-on-year, with a GTV of 2.2 trillion RMB, a decrease of 4.2% [2] - New home revenue was 30.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.1%, with a GTV of 0.9 trillion RMB, down 8.2% [2] - The home decoration and furniture business generated 15.4 billion RMB in revenue, up 4.4% year-on-year, with an improved contribution margin of 31.4% [3] - The rental service business achieved a net revenue of 21.9 billion RMB, a significant increase of 52.8%, with over 700,000 managed rental units by the end of 2025 [3] Shareholder Returns - In 2025, the company repurchased shares for approximately 9.21 billion USD, representing about 4.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [3] - A cash dividend of 300 million USD was declared, leading to a total shareholder return of approximately 1.2 billion USD, an increase of over 9% year-on-year [3] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 87 billion RMB, 89.8 billion RMB, and 96.1 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same years are 4.41 billion RMB, 5.46 billion RMB, and 6.16 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 6.38 billion RMB, 7.05 billion RMB, and 7.49 billion RMB [4]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Jiuli Special Materials, and others [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in iron water production, with daily average production increasing by 70,000 tons to 2.282 million tons, and steel production continuing to grow, particularly in rebar [12][17]. - Total steel inventory has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 1.5%, indicating a tightening supply situation [23][25]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has improved on a month-on-month basis, with rebar demand showing signs of recovery [37][47]. - Iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, while port inventories have slightly decreased [46][55]. - The current industry environment is expected to improve due to ongoing "anti-involution" policies, which may lead to a stronger steel price outlook [68]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Steel Index closed at 1,919.67 points, down 10.03%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 7.84 percentage points, ranking 29th among 30 CITIC primary sectors [1][87]. Supply Analysis - The average capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills is 85.6%, up 2.7 percentage points week-on-week, while daily average iron water production has increased [17][12]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of five major steel products is 14.11 million tons, down 0.9% week-on-week, while steel mill inventories decreased by 3.0% [25][23]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 8.685 million tons, up 8.8% week-on-week, with rebar consumption at 2.081 million tons, up 17.7% [47][37]. Raw Material Analysis - The iron ore price index for 62% Fe is at $109.6 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [55][46]. Price and Profit Analysis - The Myspic comprehensive steel price index is at 122.3, with a week-on-week increase of 0.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [69][68].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, achieving 942 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 280.18%, despite a 15.43% decrease in operating revenue to 18.233 billion yuan [1][2] - The company maintained a high gross margin, with quarterly gross margins for 2025 being 10.04%, 8.24%, 12.92%, and 7.57% respectively, indicating strong performance in a recovering steel industry [2] - The company is positioned as a leading steel enterprise in Jiangxi, with potential for capacity growth and market share improvement, supported by ongoing product development and international expansion [3] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 18.233 billion yuan, down 15.43% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 942 million yuan, up 280.18% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was 0.407 yuan, reflecting a 273.39% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 452.63 million yuan, which represents 48.04% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is maintained as "Accumulate" [5] Core Insights - The C-REITs market is experiencing a dual drive of new issuance and expansion of existing funds, with a focus on annual report information [2] - The overall performance of the C-REITs secondary market is weak, with a total market capitalization of approximately 223.89 billion yuan and an average market value of about 2.8 billion yuan per REIT [11] - The REITs index has shown a year-to-date increase of 1.18%, while the overall market indices have generally declined [9][10] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index decreased by 0.13% this week, closing at 1021.8 points, while the CSI REITs closing index fell by 0.15% to 785 points [9] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 1.18%, while the CSI REITs closing index has risen by 0.82% [9] C-REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs is showing weak fluctuations, with 39 REITs rising and 37 falling this week, resulting in an average weekly change of -0.02% [11] - The best-performing sectors this week include affordable housing and transportation infrastructure, while municipal water conservancy and logistics sectors have seen a pullback [11] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs continues to show differentiation, with the top three being Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (11%), E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (9.9%), and Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (9.7%) [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being E Fund Huawai Agricultural Market REIT (1.7) and the lowest being E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (0.7) [3] Investment Recommendations - The current investment strategy focuses on three main lines: 1. Attention to policy themes and quality undervalued projects, particularly in high-energy cities and professional operations [2] 2. Acknowledgment of the market's recognition of the benefits of affordable housing assets, with a recommendation to consider asset resilience and market prices for timing [2] 3. Monitoring the parallel expansion of REITs and new issuances, focusing on original rights holders with sufficient asset reserves and quality projects [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.27 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 780 million yuan, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2, with a net profit of -130 million yuan, indicating a narrowing loss compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company is accelerating new product launches, with new products accounting for nearly 20% of revenue, and aims for double-digit revenue growth in 2026 [3]. Financial Performance - The gross margin in Q4 2025 increased by 5.2 percentage points to 65.5%, attributed to product mix adjustments and a higher proportion of high-margin online products [2]. - The company’s operating expenses saw a seasonal increase, with the sales expense ratio rising significantly, while the management expense ratio improved [2]. - The projected net profit for 2026-2028 is expected to be 660 million, 720 million, and 790 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -15.8%, +9.6%, and +9.4% [4][6]. Revenue and Growth Projections - The company aims for a revenue target of over 7 billion yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 12.3% year-on-year [6]. - The company plans to enhance its product lines and expand into various channels, including traditional e-commerce and cross-border sales, to drive growth [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][6] Core Insights - The company has been recognized as one of the "Top 50 Brands in Automation and Digitalization in China," ranking 8th, showcasing its leadership in industrial AI [2] - The company has successfully deployed the world's first Autonomous Operating Plant (AOP) at Xingfa Group, significantly reducing workforce from 260 to 80 and saving over 40 million yuan in construction costs, while improving overall efficiency by 1%-3% [3] - The company has made substantial advancements in its industrial AI strategy, including the release of an upgraded time series model (TPT) and the development of a SaaS platform, enhancing factory autonomy [2] Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 8.056 billion, 9.125 billion, and 10.817 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 474 million, 831 million, and 1.259 billion yuan [4][5] - The company reported a revenue growth rate of 30.1% in 2023, followed by a projected decline of 11.8% in 2025, and a recovery with growth rates of 13.3% and 18.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [5][10] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.60 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.05 yuan in 2026 and 1.59 yuan in 2027 [5][10]