证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 中国神华（601088.SH） 千亿资产收购方案落地，黑金航母扩容再启航 公司发布《发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易报告书》 公告。中国神华拟通过发行 A 股股份及支付现金的方式购买国家能源集团持 有的国源电力 100%股权、新疆能源 100%股权、化工公司 100%股权、乌海 能源 100%股权、平庄煤业 100%股权、神延煤炭 41%股权、晋神能源 49% 股权、包头矿业 100%股权、航运公司 100%股权、煤炭运销公司 100%股权、 港口公司 100%股权，并以支付现金的方式购买西部能源持有的内蒙建投 100%股权。 ➢ 交易对价：最终交易价款 1335.98 亿元，其中现金对价 935.2 亿元， 发行股份对价 400.8 亿元，发行股份的价格为 29.4 元/股； 业务体量显著提升。通过本次交易， 中国神华煤炭保有资源量将提升至 684.9 亿吨，增长率达；煤炭可采储量将提升至 64.72% 345 亿吨，增长率达 97.71%； 煤炭产量将提升至 5.12 亿吨，增长率达 56.57%；发 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research as a critical component of the investment system, suggesting that many past concerns about the Chinese economy were overblown, and a new narrative focusing on innovation and industrial manufacturing is emerging [1] - It highlights the cyclical nature of stock valuations, indicating that understanding undervaluation and overvaluation is essential for successful investment strategies [1] - The steel industry is currently positioned at an absolute undervaluation, presenting a significant opportunity for value investment, with expectations of recovery in capital returns as capacity utilization improves [4] Industry Trends - The report notes that the steel industry is entering a long-term decline phase following industrial maturity, characterized by stable demand and low capital returns, with a projected capacity utilization rate of 82% in 2026 [4] - It discusses the cyclical trajectory of the steel industry, indicating that the current low capital returns are conducive to supply adjustments and potential mergers within the industry [4] - The report anticipates that the marginal recovery in capacity utilization in 2026 will further enhance capital returns in the steel sector, contingent on effective policy implementation [4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from improving capital returns, such as Baosteel, Hesteel, Nanjing Steel, and Xinyu Steel, as they are expected to provide significant investment value despite having moved away from absolute undervaluation [4] - It emphasizes the need for a detailed approach to selecting specific stocks within the steel sector, as the overall market dynamics shift towards a more stable economic environment [4] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should adapt to the changing economic landscape, where excess capital in society will influence market trends and stock valuations [4]

美国 11 月 CPI 意外回落，但数据可能失真 事件：北京时间 12 月 18 日 21:30，美国公布 2025 年 11 月 CPI。 核心结论：美国 11 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 双双超预期回落，但由于政府停摆 影响了调查统计，数据可能很大程度上存在失真。CPI 公布后，美联储降 息预期略微上调，利率期货隐含的 1 月降息概率为 27%，2026 全年降息 2 次和 3 次的概率相当。继续提示：2026 年 1 月议息会议前还能看到更 多就业和通胀数据，叠加特朗普可能提名下任美联储主席，2026 年初可 能是降息预期的关键博弈窗口。 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 19 年 月 日 宏观点评 >整体表现：美国 11 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期值 3.1%和 9 月 数据 3.0%；核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期值和 9 月数据 3.0%，是过去 9 个月最低。受政府停摆影响，10 月数据因未能统计而永久缺失，10-11 月环比数据也无法计算。 >分项表现：美国 11 月 CPI 主要分项方面，食品分项同比从 9 月的 3.1% 降至 2 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that the market perception of the company as solely a mobile CIS chip supplier is overly pessimistic, as its business structure is shifting towards non-mobile sectors, particularly automotive CIS, which is expected to surpass mobile CIS revenue in 2025 [3][4] - Automotive CIS revenue is projected to exceed 80 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30%, indicating a strong position in the mid-to-high-end market [3] - The mobile CIS segment is expected to see a decline, with revenues dropping to approximately 80 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for less than 30% of total revenue due to the lifecycle nearing the end for certain product models [4] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 301.6 billion yuan, 375.7 billion yuan, and 436.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 24.6%, and 16.2% [5] - Projected net profits for the same years are 47.0 billion yuan, 63.3 billion yuan, and 75.0 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 41.5%, 34.6%, and 18.5% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 32, 24, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating that the company is undervalued as a leading domestic CIS player [5] Group 3: Industry Performance - The report notes that the communication sector has shown significant growth, with a 1-year increase of 78.3%, while the real estate sector has declined by 8.7% over the same period [1] - The coal industry is experiencing a decrease in both production and imports, with November coal production down by 0.5% year-on-year and imports down by 19.9% [8][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the optical fiber and cable market, driven by AI demand and a stabilization in ordinary cable prices, suggesting a positive outlook for companies in this sector [6]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 18 年 月 日 盐津铺子（002847.SZ） 激励与回购并行，目标务实分享成果 事件：盐津铺子发布 2025 年限制性股票激励计划及股份回购计划，拟以 35.18 元/股价格，授予董事、高管、核心技术人员等 157 人，共计 300 万 股股票，占公司总股本的 1.1%。考核目标锚定利润，设置两档，2026-2028 年净利润（（非归母净净利润除本本激激励计划股份付费用））目标值分别 不低于 8.5、10.0、12.5 亿元，触发值分别不低于 7.65、9.0、11.25 亿元。 同时公司拟使）自有资金以不超过 109.32 元/股价格回购260-300 万股股 份，对应 2.8-3.3 亿元资金。 激励锚定利润成长，目标务实分享成果。公司自 2019、2021、2023 年股 权激励后再发激励，延续长效激励，持续牵引公司成长。本激股权激励核 心锚定利润增长，设置两档目标，目标值 2026-2028 年净利润分别不低于 8.5、10.0、12.5 亿元，触发值 2026-2028 年净利润分别不低于 7.65、9.0、 11.25 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, emphasizing potential investment opportunities in the U.S. energy sector driven by AI and market dynamics [5][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights a dual weakness in supply and demand for coal in November 2025, with a year-on-year decline in raw coal production of 0.5% and a projected annual increase in thermal coal production to approximately 3.88 billion tons, albeit with a narrowing growth rate of 1.4% [1][13]. - Coal imports in November 2025 decreased by 19.9% year-on-year, totaling 44.05 million tons, with an expected annual import level of around 38 million tons, reflecting a 6.4% decline [2][19]. - The report notes a 4.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in November, contrasting with a 2.7% increase in overall industrial power generation [3][22]. - The U.S. coal market is anticipated to experience a historic reversal due to low inventory levels, explosive demand growth, and a rigid supply decline, with coal demand driven primarily by electricity generation [41]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the raw coal production was 430 million tons, showing a 0.5% year-on-year decline, while the daily average production was 14.23 million tons [1][13][12]. - For the first eleven months of 2025, the cumulative raw coal production reached 4.4 billion tons, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase [1][13]. Imports - Coal imports in November 2025 were 44.05 million tons, down 19.9% from the previous year, with a total of 431.68 million tons imported from January to November, marking a 12.0% decline [2][19][20]. Demand - The report indicates a 4.2% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation in November, with total industrial power generation increasing by 2.7% [3][22]. - The crude steel production in November 2025 was 6.987 million tons, down 10.88% year-on-year [3][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities in the energy sector driven by AI, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [40][8]. - It also highlights the potential for significant growth in U.S. coal demand due to the increasing electricity needs of data centers, predicting a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2024 to 2030 [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - In the short term, the company shows initial signs of an earnings inflection point despite a decline in Q3 performance, with a significant increase in contract liabilities indicating strong future revenue recognition [1] - The company has improved its historical debt situation by fully repaying a substantial debt of 2.35 billion yuan, leading to a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio from 86.7% in 2022 to 77.1% in Q3 2025 [1] - Long-term growth is expected to benefit from an optimized industry competitive landscape, with the company expanding its personalized education business and actively developing vocational education, cultural reading, and medical-education integration as new growth engines [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 697 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.43 million yuan, down 89.90% year-on-year due to increased teacher labor costs from expansion [1] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 250 million, 310 million, and 380 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 40.6%, 23.9%, and 22.7% [3] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.31 billion, 3.92 billion, and 4.64 billion yuan, with growth rates of 18.8%, 18.5%, and 18.2% respectively [4] Business Expansion - The company has over 300 personalized learning centers and more than 5,200 dedicated teachers as of H1 2025, with a focus on high school entrance exam needs [2] - The full-time education segment has become a significant growth point, with over 30 full-time training bases established to serve high school repeat students and art exam candidates [2] - The company is actively acquiring and managing vocational schools, with a focus on emerging industries related to national strategies, indicating a broad market potential [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report highlights a decline in both fiscal revenue and expenditure in November, with general fiscal revenue growth turning negative and both tax and non-tax revenue growth slowing down [3] - Cumulative fiscal expenditure from January to November was 83.7%, significantly below the seasonal average of 86.7% over the past three years, indicating a slower spending pace [3] - If December's expenditure growth can rise to 10%, the total fiscal revenue for the year could exceed expenditure by approximately 630 billion, potentially creating a surplus to support 2026 spending [3] Group 2: Employment and Monetary Policy - The U.S. non-farm employment data for October and November showed significant volatility, primarily due to government sector disruptions, while the private sector remained stable [4] - The unemployment rate slightly increased, indicating a moderate slowdown in overall employment, yet the resilience of the job market remains strong [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remain unchanged, with a 24% probability of a rate cut in January 2026, suggesting a critical period for monetary policy decisions [4] Group 3: 3D Printing Industry Overview - The global 3D printing market is projected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, with printers and services accounting for 74% and materials for 20% of the market [7] - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expected to grow from $4.1 billion in 2024 to $16.9 billion by 2029, with Chinese manufacturers dominating 94% of the global market [8] - Industrial-grade 3D printing is heavily utilized in the aerospace sector, with significant revenue contributions from companies like Plutotech and Huazhu High-Tech, indicating a robust growth trajectory in commercial space endeavors [9] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in 3D Printing - The report identifies key players in the consumer-grade 3D printing market, including TuoZhu Technology and Chuangxiang Sanwei, which are expected to benefit from the industry's accelerated growth [10] - The industrial-grade 3D printing market is also highlighted, with companies like Plutotech and Huazhu High-Tech positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for advanced manufacturing solutions [10] - The report emphasizes the potential of 3D printing technology in various sectors, including electronics and aerospace, suggesting a broad range of investment opportunities [10]

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - October saw a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs, with August and September data revised down by 33,000[2] - The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5% and the previous month's 4.4%, marking the highest level since October 2021[2] Labor Market Insights - The labor force participation rate in November was 62.5%, slightly above the expected and previous month's 62.4%[2] - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.3 hours in November, compared to 34.2 hours in October[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, below the expected 0.3% and down from 0.4% in October, averaging around 0.3% over the two months[2] Sector Performance - Government employment saw significant volatility, with a drop of 157,000 jobs in October, narrowing to a decrease of 5,000 in November[3] - Private sector job additions were relatively stable, with 53,000 in October and 68,000 in November, indicating resilience in the labor market despite government disruptions[3] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, major asset prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.2%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.5 basis points to 4.14%, and the dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 98.2[4] Interest Rate Outlook - The implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remains around 24%, with expectations for two rate cuts throughout 2026[4] - The upcoming January meeting will be crucial, with additional employment and inflation data expected before the decision[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - 3D printing is recognized as a revolutionary technology in high-end manufacturing, with a global market projected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, where printers and services account for 74% and materials for 20% [1][18] - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is rapidly growing, with an expected market size of $4.1 billion in 2024, increasing to $16.9 billion by 2029 [2] - The industrial-grade 3D printing sector is primarily driven by the aerospace industry, with significant revenue contributions from companies like Platinum and Huazhu [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. 3D Printing: Unlocking High-End Manufacturing - 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing (AM), is a disruptive technology that contrasts with traditional subtractive manufacturing methods [9] - The global 3D printing market is expected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, with a forecasted growth to over $114.5 billion by 2034 [18] - The market is dominated by printer sales and services, which make up approximately 74% of the total market [18] 2. Consumer-Grade 3D Printers: China's "Four Little Dragons" Soar - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is entering a phase of accelerated penetration, with significant contributions from Chinese manufacturers [2] - In 2024, the global shipment of consumer-grade 3D printers is estimated to be around 4.1 million units, with Chinese companies holding a 94% market share [2] - The report highlights the technological advancements that have improved efficiency and reduced costs in consumer-grade printers [2] 3. Commercial Aerospace: The Mainline of Industrial 3D Printing - The aerospace sector is identified as the core downstream market for industrial-grade 3D printers, with significant revenue shares from companies like Platinum and Huazhu [2] - The commercial aerospace market in China is projected to reach ¥2.3 trillion in 2024, with expectations of further growth [2] - 3D printing is increasingly used in the manufacturing of rocket engines, significantly reducing costs and production times [2] 4. Technology & New Consumption: 3D Printing Technology Has Great Potential - 3D printing is gradually replacing traditional CNC machining in the 3C field, offering higher precision and lower material waste [3] - The technology is also being applied in the production of liquid cooling plates, enhancing thermal performance in various applications [3] - The report identifies key players in the consumer-grade and industrial-grade 3D printing markets, highlighting their roles and market positions [3]