证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 16 年 月 日 投资策略 中央经济工作会议点评 一、策略专题：中央经济工作会议点评 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 （1）如何理解五个新"必须"？ 2024 年中央经济工作会议以五个"必须"总结了对经济工作的规律性认 知，而今年的会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了 新的认识和体会，并提出了五个新"必须"。我们认为，五个新"必须"可 能是我们认知 2026 年经济工作与政策取向的重要指引。 一是"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"，指向我国具备超大规模市场和强大生产 能力的优势，应充分利用上述优势在扩内需等领域培育更多新的经济增长 点； 二是"必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举"，这与政策取向中"加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度"等措辞相呼应，表明在提供短期政策支持时还应同 时具备长远的政策视野，增量更要提质； 三是"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得好'"，二十届三中全会关于全面深 化改革的《决定》曾提出"既'放得活'又'管得住'"，本次会议将管得 "住"改为管得"好"，表明了对全面深化改革、整治"内卷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence between strong expectations and weak realities, with production data quality declining since May 2023, impacting demand assessments [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to November, but November alone saw a decline of 3.3% [2]. - The net export of steel reached 10.218 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, driven by strong manufacturing exports [3]. - Domestic policies are shifting focus towards basic economic fundamentals, with an emphasis on proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In November 2025, crude steel production was 6.987 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, while the average daily production was 2.329 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3% [8]. - The apparent consumption of steel in China for the first eleven months of 2025 grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with a notable decline in November [2]. Exports and Imports - Steel exports for January to November 2025 totaled 10.772 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - The import of iron ore in November was 11.054 million tons, up 8.5% year-on-year, while cumulative imports for the first eleven months increased by 1.4% [8]. Policy and Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of domestic policies will increasingly center on structural adjustments, with an expectation of continued fiscal easing and reforms [4]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in undervalued companies within the steel sector, such as Huazhong Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from upcoming economic cycles [4].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the convertible bond market is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by strong equity market support and a tightening supply-demand structure [1][2][36] - The convertible bond market has shown a cumulative return of 17.35% in 2025, closely following the performance of the equity markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 17.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 24.29% [1][9] - The average return on convertible bond funds was 22.63%, which, while slightly lower than equity funds, exhibited lower volatility and better drawdown performance [1][18] Group 2 - The report identifies "pan-technology" as a strategic allocation theme for convertible bonds in the coming year, focusing on sectors such as AI, chips, and cloud security [3][36] - The supply of convertible bonds is expected to tighten further, with the total outstanding amount dropping below 600 billion, and a significant number of bonds set to mature in 2026 [2][39] - The average return on equity (ROE) for A-shares is projected to increase from 20.1% in 2024 to 27.9% in 2025, indicating a strong recovery in corporate profitability [2][36] Group 3 - The report highlights that the performance of the convertible bond market is closely linked to the equity market, with a notable correlation in trends and returns [1][21] - The average price of convertible bonds increased from 120.8 yuan at the beginning of the year to 144.3 yuan by November 21, 2025, reflecting a robust market environment [21][22] - The report suggests that the tightening supply of convertible bonds, combined with improving corporate earnings, will likely maintain high valuations in the convertible bond market [2][39]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a "weak recovery + rebalancing" for the global economy in 2026, supported by four factors: balance sheet repair, loose monetary policy, fiscal expansion, and the AI investment wave, while constrained by high interest rates, tariff impacts, and difficulty in achieving synchronization across economies [1][19]. - The report highlights that the global economic recovery is expected to be more evident in quarter-on-quarter improvements rather than year-on-year increases, reflecting a gradual upward trend but with weak momentum [2][53]. - The analysis suggests that the economic performance of developed countries is likely to gradually recover, while emerging markets will remain relatively stable, indicating a convergence in economic performance across different regions [2][53]. Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely only implement two rate cuts in 2026, aligning with the economic fundamentals, but there is a concern regarding the potential loss of the Fed's independence due to political influences surrounding the upcoming leadership change and midterm elections [3][55]. - It is noted that the macro environment is favorable for U.S. equities due to recovery and rate cuts, but the current valuations are at levels reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble, which may limit upside potential [4][9]. - The report emphasizes that while U.S. Treasury yields may not decline significantly due to economic fundamentals, the change in Fed leadership and potential for unexpected rate cuts could create downward pressure on yields [4][36]. Group 3 - The report discusses the expected stabilization of the U.S. dollar due to a more balanced economic performance between the U.S. and Europe, although it is unlikely to see significant strength, with the Chinese yuan projected to appreciate slightly [4][38]. - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend, but the pace may slow due to high valuations, with a focus on the potential for industrial metals like silver and copper to outperform [4][41]. - The outlook for oil prices suggests a continuation of a weak trend due to oversupply, with Brent crude oil expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel, contingent on geopolitical factors not escalating [4][44].

Core Insights - The overall economic performance in November shows a significant decline in consumption and investment, with consumption down for six consecutive months and retail sales growth at 1.3%, the lowest in nearly three years [2] - Fixed asset investment has been negative for three consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 12% in both October and November, and real estate investment showing a record drop of 30.3% in November [2] - The weak economic indicators suggest insufficient internal demand, with low inflation and a PMI below the threshold for eight months, indicating a lack of economic momentum [2] Consumption and Investment - Consumption has decreased for six months, with retail sales growth at 1.3%, marking the lowest level in almost three years [2] - Fixed asset investment has shown a negative cumulative year-on-year growth for three months, with November's investment down 12% compared to the previous year [2] - Real estate investment has been particularly weak, with a year-on-year decline of 30.3% in November, the largest drop recorded [2] Economic Outlook - The focus is on ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026, with potential policy measures including "trade-in" programs and early fiscal allocations to stimulate consumption [2] - Anticipated policy actions may include interest rate cuts and adjustments to fiscal strategies to support economic recovery in the first quarter of 2026 [2] Market Performance - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with telecommunications and defense industries showing strong growth, while real estate and coal industries are experiencing significant declines [2] - The report indicates that the bond market is under pressure but may stabilize with upcoming policy changes and adjustments in government debt issuance [3]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in real estate sales, with both new and second-hand home sales dropping over 30% year-on-year, indicating a weak market [4][5] - Commodity prices are experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices rising strongly, while coal prices have seen a decline [4] - The automotive sector is also facing challenges, with passenger car sales in the first week of December down 32.3% year-on-year, attributed to tightened vehicle replacement subsidy policies [4] Group 2: Financial Market Performance - The A-share market is expected to transition from valuation-driven growth to earnings-driven growth in 2026, with a suggested neutral position of 80% in investment portfolios [6] - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment remains weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight decline of 0.34% over the week [9] - Various sectors are showing different performance trends, with defense and military industries seeing gains, while coal and steel sectors are confirming declines [9] Group 3: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The C-REITs market is showing mixed performance, with a total market capitalization of approximately 216.81 billion yuan, and 34 REITs increasing in value while 41 decreased [33] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in the REITs market under a low-interest-rate environment, particularly focusing on resilient assets and quality projects [33] Group 4: Coal Industry Insights - The report notes a significant increase in U.S. natural gas prices, which is expected to drive a resurgence in coal power consumption, with coal electricity generation projected to increase by 21% year-on-year in the first quarter [35][36] - Investment recommendations include companies like China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining, which are expected to benefit from the rising coal demand [36] Group 5: Banking Sector Analysis - Shanghai Bank reported a steady performance with a total operating income of 41.14 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [40] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.18%, indicating solid asset quality [41] - The report highlights the bank's focus on supporting the real economy and meeting consumer needs through targeted lending strategies [42]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 环保 顶层设计强力驱动，固废循环蓄势升级 政策加码循环经济，金融赋能绿色制造 1、中央经济工作会议指出要坚持 "双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型。明确要求实施固体废物综合治理行动， 其核心目的是从无废城市建设和资源循环的源头入手，系统减少污染、提 升资源利用效率，为高质量发展提供可持续支撑。这将直接利好固废处理 行业，推荐专注固废循环的龙头企业惠城环保。2.工信部、央行联合发文 强化绿色金融对绿色工厂建设支持，引导金融机构通过绿色信贷、绿色债 券及结构性货币政策工具，加大对国家绿色工厂的资金支持，重点投向绿 色低碳技术研发与产业化、工业节能降碳技术改造升级以及零碳工厂建设 等方向。建议关注受益于碳中和的标的，惠城环保、高能环境等。 当周碳交易行情：本周（12.08-12.12）全国碳市场综合价格行情为：最高 价 60.20 元/吨，最低价 56.32 元/吨，收盘价较上周五下跌 3.38%；挂牌 协议交易成交量 318.23 万吨，成交额 1.87 亿元；大宗协议交易成交量 487.05 万吨，成交额 2.92 亿元；本周无单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in reshaping the energy sector, particularly in the coal market, indicating a potential bottom reversal and investment opportunities [1][3] - The coal price is expected to stabilize as winter demand improves, despite recent declines [16][33] - The report highlights the long-term supply constraints in the U.S. coal market, with limited new capacity and declining inventories, suggesting a historical reversal opportunity for coal prices [7][11] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 3.80% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.72 percentage points [1] - The report notes that the current coal price dynamics are driven by "real demand," with a recent cold wave not significantly impacting consumption [4][8] Coal Prices - As of December 12, 2025, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 761 RMB/ton, down 39 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][33] - The report indicates that coal prices are under pressure due to high port inventories and cautious purchasing behavior from traders [16][35] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report states that coal production is normal, but some mines are temporarily reducing output due to maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in overall capacity utilization [3][16] - The report highlights that U.S. coal demand is expected to increase significantly in 2025, driven by power generation needs, with a projected 15% year-on-year growth in coal-fired electricity generation in the first half of 2025 [7][11] Investment Strategy - The report recommends several companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal, as key investment targets due to their strong performance and market positioning [12][9] - It also suggests focusing on companies involved in smart mining technologies and those showing signs of recovery from difficulties [12][9] Key Indicators - The report provides various statistics, including that the coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 29.16 million tons, an increase of 1.54 million tons week-on-week [16][19] - The average profit per ton of coke for sample enterprises increased to 44 RMB, reflecting a recovery in profitability despite ongoing price pressures [70][72]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 18x [2][30]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing fluctuations in revenue, with notable declines in some manufacturers' performance due to changing international trade environments and tariff policies [1][13]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders and shipments for apparel manufacturers in 2026, driven by improved demand and healthy inventory levels [23][28]. - Key brands like Nike are expected to show gradual improvement in their operational performance, which may positively impact their suppliers [23][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - In November 2025, revenue for Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group decreased by 11.8%, increased by 1.5%, and decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][13]. - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, Feng Tai's revenue declined by 4.9%, while Ruo Hong and Yu Yuan reported increases of 3.8% and 0.9% [1][13]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see a recovery in orders in 2026, with a focus on companies with integrated and international supply chains [28][29]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is improving, with leading manufacturers likely to gain market share [2][27]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from improved customer trends and operational efficiencies [2][28]. - Other companies to watch include Weixing Co., Kairun Co., and Jingyuan International, which are also positioned well for future growth [2][28]. Brand Performance - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance, particularly for Nike in the Greater China region, which is expected to show a turnaround [28]. - Other recommended brands include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 14x and 16x [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to "stabilize real estate," indicating ongoing policy support and the necessity for further actions in 2026 [1][10]. - The report highlights the importance of internal demand, suggesting potential relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in core cities and reforms in the housing provident fund system [2][11]. - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, with a focus on quality housing and the improvement of the competitive landscape favoring leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms [4][10]. Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Review - The conference reiterates the commitment to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing inventory reduction and the construction of quality housing [1][10]. - Policies will be tailored to individual cities, focusing on controlling new supply and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [1][10]. Market Review - The weekly performance of the Shenwan Real Estate Index showed a decline of 2.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.54 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][15]. - The report notes a significant drop in new home sales, with a 45.3% year-on-year decrease in 30 cities, and a 30% decline in second-hand home sales [3][33]. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 172.2 million square meters, down 2.5% month-on-month and 45.3% year-on-year [3][28]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities reached 195.9 million square meters, reflecting a 2.7% month-on-month increase but a 30% year-on-year decline [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market recovery [4][10]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [4].