Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the stocks of Dongyangguang (600673.SH) and Jingtai Holdings (02228.HK) [4] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is entering a phase of global resonance, with China's commercial aerospace market expected to grow from 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 to 2.8 trillion yuan in 2025 [2] - China has applied for frequency resources for over 200,000 satellites, indicating a significant expansion in satellite constellations [1] - The focus on 3D printing and upstream materials is crucial for the aerospace sector, particularly in the manufacturing of rocket engines and satellite components [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace market is projected to reach a scale of 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025, with significant contributions from various satellite constellation projects [2] - China is actively developing large-scale satellite constellations, with several projects aiming to deploy thousands of satellites [2] Technological Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of 3D printing technology in the aerospace sector, particularly for rocket engines, which can significantly reduce costs and production time [3] - Key materials identified include high-temperature alloys, 3D printing metal powders, and advanced composite materials for satellites [3] Investment Targets - Key investment targets include Dongyangguang and Jingtai Holdings, with projected earnings per share (EPS) increasing significantly from 2024 to 2027 [4] - The report highlights specific companies involved in critical materials and technologies, such as high-modulus carbon fiber and 3D printing materials [6]

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Timing Radar Six-Dimensional Framework **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates multi-dimensional indicators to assess equity market performance, categorizing them into four major dimensions: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Funds & Trends," and "Crowdedness & Reversal," generating a composite timing score within [-1,1] range [1][6][9] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 21 indicators across liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, funds, technical trends, and crowdedness dimensions [1][6] 2. Aggregate these indicators into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Funds & Trends," and "Crowdedness & Reversal" [1][6] 3. Calculate a composite timing score within the range [-1,1] based on the aggregated indicators [1][6] **Model Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive view of market conditions, but its effectiveness depends on stable market environments [1][6] Quantitative Factors and Construction Liquidity Factors - **Factor Name**: Monetary Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the direction of monetary policy based on changes in policy rates and short-term market rates [12] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the average change in policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days 2. If the factor > 0, monetary policy is considered loose; if < 0, monetary policy is considered tight [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures monetary policy trends [12] - **Factor Name**: Monetary Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates using the "interest rate corridor" concept [15] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1 2. Smooth and standardize the deviation using z-score 3. Assign scores: <-1.5 SD = 1 (loose environment), >1.5 SD = -1 (tight environment) [15] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures short-term liquidity deviations effectively [15] - **Factor Name**: Credit Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the transmission of credit from banks to the real economy [18] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use monthly long-term loan data 2. Calculate past 12-month increments and year-over-year changes 3. Compare with three months prior: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1 [18] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into credit transmission trends [18] - **Factor Name**: Credit Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether credit indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations [21] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute deviation = (new RMB loans - median forecast)/forecast SD 2. Assign scores: >1.5 SD = 1 (credit exceeds expectations), <-1.5 SD = -1 (credit falls short) [21] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures unexpected credit changes effectively [21] Economic Factors - **Factor Name**: Growth Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on PMI data to assess economic growth trends [23] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use PMI data (manufacturing, non-manufacturing, Caixin manufacturing) 2. Calculate past 12-month averages and year-over-year changes 3. Compare with three months prior: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1 [23] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects economic growth trends effectively [23] - **Factor Name**: Growth Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether economic growth indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations [26] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute deviation = (PMI - median forecast)/forecast SD 2. Assign scores: >1.5 SD = 1 (growth exceeds expectations), <-1.5 SD = -1 (growth falls short) [26] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures unexpected economic growth changes effectively [26] - **Factor Name**: Inflation Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Assesses inflation trends based on CPI and PPI data [28] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute inflation direction = 0.5 × smoothed CPI YoY + 0.5 × raw PPI YoY 2. Compare with three months prior: downward trend = 1, upward trend = -1 [28] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects inflation trends effectively [28] - **Factor Name**: Inflation Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether inflation indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations [30] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute deviation = (CPI/PPI - median forecast)/forecast SD 2. Assign scores: <-1.5 SD = 1 (inflation falls short), >1.5 SD = -1 (inflation exceeds expectations) [30] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures unexpected inflation changes effectively [30] Valuation Factors - **Factor Name**: Shiller ERP **Factor Construction Idea**: Adjusts earnings for inflation to assess market valuation [31] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute Shiller PE = average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past six years 2. Calculate Shiller ERP = 1/Shiller PE - 10-year bond yield 3. Standardize using z-score over the past six years [31] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a robust valuation metric [31] - **Factor Name**: PB **Factor Construction Idea**: Standardizes PB to assess market valuation [35] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute PB × (-1) 2. Standardize using z-score over the past six years 3. Truncate at ±1.5 SD and normalize to ±1 range [35] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures valuation trends [35] - **Factor Name**: AIAE **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects market-wide equity allocation and risk appetite [37] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute AIAE = total equity market cap/(total equity market cap + total debt) 2. Multiply by (-1) and standardize using z-score over the past six years [37] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures market risk appetite effectively [37] Funds Factors - **Factor Name**: Margin Trading Increment **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures market leverage trends [40] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute margin balance - short balance 2. Compare 120-day average increment with 240-day average increment: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1 [40] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects leverage trends effectively [40] - **Factor Name**: Turnover Trend **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures market activity and liquidity [43] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute log turnover moving average distance = ma120/ma240 - 1 2. Assign scores: max(10/30/60) = 1, min(10/30/60) = -1 [43] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures market activity effectively [43] - **Factor Name**: China Sovereign CDS Spread **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects foreign investors' sentiment toward China's credit risk [47] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute smoothed CDS spread 20-day difference 2. Assign scores: <0 = 1 (positive sentiment), >0 = -1 (negative sentiment) [47] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures foreign sentiment effectively [47] - **Factor Name**: Overseas Risk Aversion Index **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects global market risk appetite [49] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute smoothed risk aversion index 20-day difference 2. Assign scores: <0 = 1 (positive sentiment), >0 = -1 (negative sentiment) [49] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures global risk appetite effectively [49] Technical Factors - **Factor Name**: Price Trend **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures market trend direction and strength [52] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute moving average distance = ma120/ma240 - 1 2. Assign scores: >0 = 1 (upward trend), <0 = -1 (downward trend) 3. Combine trend direction and strength scores [52] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures market trends effectively [52] - **Factor Name**: New Highs and Lows **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects reversal signals based on constituent stocks' highs and lows [54] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute smoothed new lows - new highs

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 01 11 年 月 日 量化周报 科创 50 迎来日线级别上涨 科创 50 迎来日线级别上涨。本周（ 1.5-1.9），大盘强势上行，上证指数全 周收涨 3.82%。在此背景下，科创 50、传媒、计算机、钢铁、建筑、纺服 迎来日线级别上涨。至此，几乎所有的规模指数重归日线级别上涨，且 21 个行业处于日线级别上涨中。当下，我们认为市场的日线级别上涨大概率 还能持续，理由如下：1、上证指数的上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束的 概率低；2、目前市场量价齐升，走势比较健康；3、传媒、计算机、钢铁、 建筑、纺服已于近期重新迎来日线级别上涨，而且上涨只走了 1 浪结构， 短期结束的概率低。因此，我们认为市场的日线级别上涨将会持续一段时 间，短期即便有调整，也只是 30 分钟级别，不足为惧。中期来看，上证 指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷 纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期牛市只进行 到上半场；此外，已有 27 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 18 个行业周线 上涨走了 1-3 浪结构，因 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, the CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0%, the lowest level since 2009, while the PPI decreased by 2.6%[3] - December 2025 CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, matching expectations, while core CPI also rose by 1.2%[1] - The PPI for December 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, slightly better than the expected 2.0%[1] Core Insights - CPI has risen for four consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2023, with core CPI also maintaining above 1% for four months[2] - The PPI has increased month-on-month for three consecutive months, driven by the non-involution sectors, while oil and petrochemical prices continue to decline[2] - For 2026, CPI is projected to rise to around 0.7%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and a narrowing decline in rental prices[2][5] Price Trends - In 2025, food prices fell by 1.5% year-on-year, marking a 25-year low, with energy prices down by 3.9%[3] - Core CPI saw a modest increase of 0.7% in 2025, with significant contributions from household appliances and communication tools, which rose by 1.8% and 0.6% respectively[3] - The international gold price surge led to a more than 40% increase in jewelry prices, significantly impacting the CPI[3] PPI Analysis - The PPI for 2025 averaged -2.6%, the second-lowest since 2016, with both production and living materials prices declining[3] - The decline in PPI was exacerbated by weak demand and excess capacity in sectors like real estate and infrastructure[3] - In 2026, PPI is expected to stabilize around -0.4%, influenced by rising prices in coal, steel, and lithium due to increased demand[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market value of approximately 20 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 40% [10][30]. Core Insights - The company has shown a robust order growth in Q4 2025, with new orders amounting to 6.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and a quarter-on-quarter acceleration of 3.1 percentage points, marking the highest quarterly growth in nearly two years [14]. - The company is expected to achieve a production volume of 5.02 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, with a production capacity utilization rate reaching 97% [16]. - The company is focusing on high-demand sectors such as electric cells, shipbuilding, and new energy vehicles, which is expected to enhance its market share [14]. - The company has obtained various international certifications, which will likely increase its export scale [14]. Summary by Sections Order Growth and Market Position - The company has secured significant orders in Q4 2025, with a total of 6.84 billion yuan, reflecting a strong competitive advantage due to its nationwide production base and advanced technology [14]. - The manufacturing PMI index has shown a recovery, indicating a positive trend in domestic manufacturing demand, which supports the company's future order growth [14]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company achieved a record production of 1.411 million tons in Q4 2025, with a monthly average of 470,000 tons, marking an 11.9% year-on-year increase [16]. - The implementation of advanced robotic systems and automated production lines has significantly improved production efficiency and capacity utilization [16][20]. Pricing and Profitability - There is potential for price increases in the company's projects due to the current order surplus, which may enhance profit margins [3]. - The company has a strong bargaining power due to its scale and quality, allowing it to negotiate better pricing on large and urgent orders [3]. Long-term Growth Potential - The company is expected to see a 30% increase in steel structure production by 2026, reaching approximately 6.5 million tons, with a projected net profit of 850 million yuan [10][30]. - The introduction of welding robots is anticipated to reduce costs significantly and enhance production capacity, creating substantial profit potential [20][24].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that domestic wind power demand is steadily increasing, with a significant focus on offshore wind development, which is expected to accelerate under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][47] - The report anticipates that the installed capacity of wind power during the "14th Five-Year Plan" will reach 130GW annually, with the proportion of wind power in new energy installations expected to rise from 25% to 50% [1][38] - The report highlights that the European offshore wind market is expected to continue its rapid growth, with a total planned capacity of nearly 100GW, supported by government policies and subsidies [2][51] Group 2 - The domestic wind turbine market is experiencing price increases, with an average bidding price for onshore wind turbines rising by approximately 12% in 2025 compared to 2024 [3][13] - The report notes that the domestic turbine manufacturers are gaining market share in overseas markets, with a projected overseas market share of about 14% in 2024 [3][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology in the domestic submarine cable market, predicting a significant increase in demand for submarine cables due to the growth of offshore wind and power interconnection projects [4][47] Group 3 - The report identifies a turning point in profitability for domestic marine engineering companies, with increased capacity utilization expected to enhance profitability [5][47] - The report suggests that the domestic marine engineering sector is well-positioned to expand in the European market, where demand for offshore wind foundations is high [5][51] - The report highlights the tight supply of offshore wind foundations in Europe, indicating a potential for domestic companies to capture significant market share [5][51] Group 4 - The report recommends focusing on key companies in the wind power sector, including Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy, among others [6][10] - The report also highlights the importance of companies involved in submarine cables and marine engineering, such as Daikin Heavy Industries and Dongfang Cable [6][10] - The report indicates that component manufacturers, including Delijia and Weili Transmission, are expected to see increased demand due to the growth of the wind power sector [6][10]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 11 年 月 日 电力设备 光伏产品取消出口退税，江苏超 800MW 海上风电项目获核准 光伏：两部门宣布取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税，硅料电池组件价格上涨。近 日财政部、税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告：自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%；2027 年 1 月 1 日 起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。适时降低或取消光伏产品的出口退税，有助于 推动国外市场价格理性回归，降低我国面临的贸易摩擦的风险。据安泰科统计，本 周多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 5.0-6.3 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.92 万元/吨， 周环比上涨 9.83%。n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 5.0-6.4 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.58 万元/吨，环比涨幅为 10.5%。据 Infolink，本周 N 型电池片价格如下：183N、 210RN 与 210N 均价再度上调，本周上升至每瓦 0.39 元人民 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, with a recommendation to invest in specific companies based on supply and demand improvements expected in 2026 [1] Core Insights - The snack industry is showing signs of recovery, with companies entering the critical phase of preparing for the Spring Festival, which is expected to boost performance in Q1 2026 due to low base effects and seasonal demand [2] - Companies are adjusting their channel operations and product priorities in response to evolving market demands, leading to gradual improvements in their performance [2] - Specific companies like 甘源食品 (Ganyuan Food) and 劲仔食品 (Jinzai Food) are highlighted for their strategic adjustments and potential for recovery in 2026 [3][4] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor market is expected to see a dual improvement in supply and demand by 2026, with short-term sales showing signs of recovery [1] - Recommended companies for investment include 泸州老窖 (Luzhou Laojiao), 古井贡酒 (Guojingongjiu), and 贵州茅台 (Kweichow Moutai) among others [1] Snack Industry - The snack sector is entering a critical preparation phase for the Spring Festival, with companies like 甘源食品 (Ganyuan Food) and 劲仔食品 (Jinzai Food) making strategic adjustments to improve their market positions [2][3][4] - 甘源食品 is expected to recover from a significant revenue decline by leveraging new product launches and channel improvements [3] - 劲仔食品 is shifting focus to new product categories to drive growth, despite facing some revenue pressures [4] Market Trends - The overall food and beverage sector is projected to experience a rebound, with specific attention on the performance of major brands and their strategic responses to market changes [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a recovery phase, with the national average daily pig iron production increasing by 21,000 tons to 2,296,000 tons, and overall steel production showing a slight increase [11]. - Total steel inventory has shifted from a decrease to an increase, with a week-on-week rise of 1.8%, indicating a change in market dynamics [23]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened on a month-on-month basis, particularly in rebar, which saw a significant drop in demand [38]. - The report highlights that while steel prices are stable with slight increases, the immediate profit margins are declining, suggesting a need for caution in pricing strategies [67]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The average daily pig iron production has increased, indicating a rise in production capacity utilization, which is currently at 86.1%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous week [17]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products has increased to 8.652 million tons, reflecting a 1.7% week-on-week rise and a 10.7% year-on-year increase [25]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 5.3% week-on-week, with rebar consumption dropping by 12.7% [48]. Price and Profitability - The report notes that the current steel price index is 122.5, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [67]. - The immediate profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are negative, indicating that production costs are exceeding sales prices [69]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from the energy sector's growth, such as Jiu Li Special Materials and Changbao Steel, as well as those involved in pipeline construction and steel production [8].

Group 1: Domestic and Global New Energy Vehicle Market - The domestic new energy vehicle market in China continues to thrive, with a 31% year-on-year increase in sales from January to November 2025, and a penetration rate of 47.5% [11][12] - In Europe, new energy vehicle sales increased by 30% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with a penetration rate of 28.1% [20][23] - In the United States, new energy vehicle sales decreased by 2% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a penetration rate of 9.4% [24][29] - The report forecasts that global new energy vehicle sales will reach 2.475 million units in 2026, with China accounting for 1.515 million units [30][26] Group 2: Battery and Materials Supply-Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics in the battery materials sector are improving, with a 35% year-on-year increase in global power battery installations from January to October 2025 [32] - The market share of CATL in the battery segment slightly increased, with a total installation of 355.2 GWh, representing a 36.6% year-on-year growth [32] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen by 62% in 2025 due to supply constraints and increasing downstream demand [37][46] Group 3: New Technologies in Battery Development - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction due to their safety and range advantages, with increased interest from automakers for validation and mass production in 2026 [3] - The sodium-ion battery market is expanding, with a market size of approximately 6 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 202% year-on-year growth [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the battery sector include CATL, Penghui Energy, and Yiwei Lithium Energy [4] - In the midstream materials sector, companies such as Keda Li, Hunan Youneng, and Longpan Technology are highlighted [4] - For solid-state battery technology, companies like Xingyun Co., and Xiamen Tungsten are suggested for investment [4]