有色金属 美就业数据强势金价震荡运行，下游小幅备货锂行业回归去库节奏 作者 1、《有色金属：美联储偏鹰指引金属价格普遍承压》 2024-12-22 2、《工业金属：氧化铝：2025 年供需紧张有望缓解， 利润或逐渐向电解铝转移》 2024-12-17 3、《有色金属：美 PPI 升温金价冲高回落，贸易商低价 抛售锂价重心下移》 2024-12-14 内容目录 | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 一、周度数据跟踪 . | | 1.1 板块&公司涨跌：本周有色金属板块普遍下跌………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5 | | 1.2 ...

本报告署名分析师在此声明：我们具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力，本报告所表 述的任何观点均精准地反映了我们对标的证券和发行人的个人看法，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。我们所得报酬的 任何部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会与本报告中的具体投资建议或观点有直接或间接联系。 投资评级说明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|----------|-------|---------------------------------------| | 投资建议的评级标准 | | 评级 | 说明 | | 评级标准为报告发布日后的 6 个月内公司股价（或行业 | | 买入 | 相对同期基准指数涨幅在 15% 以上 | | 指数）相对同期基准指数的相对市场表现。其中 A 股市 | | 增持 | 相对同期基准指数涨幅在 5%~15% 之间 | | 场以沪深 300 指数为基准；新三板市场以三板成指（针 | 股票评级 | 持有 | 相对同期基准指数涨幅在 -5%~+5% ...

2024 12 29 年 月 日 中信钢铁指数报收 1,563.26 点，下跌 0.69%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.05pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 17 位。 图表7:五大品种钢材社会库存（万吨） 2700 －2020年 —2021年 ——2022年 ——2023年 ——2024年 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 第1周 第678 第11周 第16周 第21周 第26周 第31周 第36周 第41周 第46周 第51周 资料来源:Mysteel,国盛证券研究所 1600 -2020-年 —2021年 —2023年 ——2024年 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 第1周 第6周 第11周 第16周 第21周 第31周 第36周 第41周 第46周 第51周 资料未源: Mysteel,因盛证券研究所 图表10:五大品种钢材钢厂库存 (万吨) 第6期 第11期 第16周 第21月 第26周 第31期 第36周 第41周 第46周 第51周 第6屆 第11周 第16屆 第21屆 第26屆 第31屆 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Six-Cycle Model of the Chinese Economy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model defines the Chinese economy into six cycles based on three factors: monetary, credit, and growth[1][2] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Monetary Factor**: Core policy rate supplemented by market rates, calculated using a diffusion index based on 90-day changes in key rates[2] 2. **Credit Factor**: Focuses on medium and long-term loans to reflect real financing needs, calculated using the pulse of medium and long-term loans[2] 3. **Growth Factor**: Uses PMI as the primary indicator due to its comprehensive coverage and timeliness[2] 4. **Cycle Division**: The economy is divided into six cycles: credit expansion, economic recovery, monetary tightening, credit tightening, economic slowdown, and monetary expansion[2][3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the cyclical nature of the Chinese economy and provides a structured approach to asset allocation[1][2][3] Model Backtesting Results - **Six-Cycle Model**: - Annualized return since 2013: 7.9% - Annualized volatility: 2.6% - Maximum drawdown: 2.9% - Sharpe ratio: 3.04 - Absolute return in 2024: 8.6%[3][4][5] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Monetary Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses policy rates as the core, supplemented by market rates to fill gaps[2] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Data Selection**: Key policy rates and market rates[2] 2. **Scoring**: Assign scores based on 90-day changes in rates[2] 3. **Calculation**: Diffusion index calculated as the average score of policy tools and market rates[2] - **Formula**: $$ \text{Monetary Direction Factor} = \frac{\text{Sum of Policy Tool Scores} + \text{Market Rate Score}}{8} $$ - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a clear indication of monetary policy direction and its impact on the economy[2] Factor Name: Credit Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on medium and long-term loans to reflect real financing needs[2] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Data Selection**: Medium and long-term loan data[2] 2. **Calculation**: Pulse of medium and long-term loans calculated as a 12-month rolling sum and year-over-year change[2] 3. **Scoring**: Direction factor based on 3-month changes[2] - **Formula**: $$ \text{Credit Direction Factor} = \text{3-month change in Medium and Long-term Loan Pulse} $$ - **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures the credit demand and its impact on asset performance[2] Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses PMI as the primary indicator due to its comprehensive coverage and timeliness[2] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Data Selection**: Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Caixin PMI[2] 2. **Calculation**: PMI pulse calculated as a 12-month rolling average and year-over-year change[2] 3. **Scoring**: Direction factor based on 3-month changes[2] - **Formula**: $$ \text{Growth Direction Factor} = \text{Sum of 3-month changes in PMI pulses} $$ - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a timely and comprehensive measure of economic growth[2] Factor Backtesting Results - **Monetary Factor**: - Annualized return in expansion: 12.8% - Annualized return in contraction: -4.0%[2][3] - **Credit Factor**: - Annualized return in expansion: 15.6% - Annualized return in contraction: -2.0%[2][3] - **Growth Factor**: - Annualized return in expansion: 10.4% - Annualized return in contraction: -3.2%[2][3]

P.15 图表32：并购重组政策整理 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------------------|--------|---------|---------|---------|-------| | 主体 | 装机容量 万千瓦） \n总计 | 火电 | 水电 | 风电 | 光伏 | 其他 | | 国家能源集团 | 32400 | 20900 | 1867 | 6078 | 9623 | | | 中国神华 | 4463.4 | 4411.4 | 12.5 | - | 39.5 | - | | 国电电力 | 10557.97 | 7279.4 | 1495.06 | 929.33 | 854.18 | - | | 龙源电力 | 3559.37 | 187.5 | - | 2775.44 | 596.43 | | | 长源电力 | 1049.47 | 831 | 58.55 | 26.4 | 131.36 | 2.16 | | 其他 | 12769.79 | 8190.7 | 300.89 | 2346. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 32.00 [55] Core Views - The company is a leading provider of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) healthcare services, offering integrated online and offline (OMO) services [88] - The company has a strong physician team, with over 39,000 licensed TCM practitioners as of August 2024, and collaborates with seven "National TCM Masters" [20] - The company's offline revenue in H1 2024 reached RMB 1.23 billion, accounting for 90.08% of total revenue, with a customer retention rate of 69.5% [35] - The company has a robust supply chain system with 452 suppliers across China, ensuring cost efficiency and stable product supply [24] Business Expansion - The company has expanded its offline service network to 19 cities in China and Singapore, with 74 offline clinics as of July 2024 [20][30] - In H1 2024, the company added 16 new clinics through self-construction and acquisitions, further expanding its presence in key cities [30] - The company's online medical platform revenue grew significantly, reaching RMB 286.2 million in 2023, driven by acquisitions of online platforms "Bailu" and "Wanjia" [96] Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from RMB 725 million in 2018 to RMB 2.327 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 26.2% [118] - Net profit turned positive in 2022 and reached RMB 252 million in 2023, reflecting strong operational efficiency [118] - The company's gross margin remained stable at around 30% from 2022 to 2023, with a slight decline due to adjustments in statistical standards [77] Industry Outlook - The TCM healthcare service market in China is expected to grow from RMB 800 billion in 2022 to RMB 2.1239 trillion by 2032, with a CAGR of 10.3% [127] - Aging population and rising chronic disease prevalence are driving demand for TCM services, particularly for long-term health management [128] - Government policies, such as the "14th Five-Year Plan for TCM Development," are supporting the growth of TCM services, including the expansion of private TCM clinics [133] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong brand and extensive customer base, with over 19 million cumulative customer visits [88] - The company's "National TCM Masters" and experienced physician team enhance its service quality and reputation [22] - The company's vertical integration of the supply chain and large number of suppliers provide cost advantages and stable product supply [24] Future Growth Drivers - The company plans to continue expanding its offline clinic network, with a focus on key cities and international markets [30] - The company's online platform is expected to grow further, with projected revenue growth of 10%, 13%, and 14% from 2024 to 2026 [159] - The company's in-house production of TCM formulations, such as "Gangju Qingyan Granules" and "Xiangtao Granules," is expected to reduce costs and enhance profitability [138]

国盛证券有限责任公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格。本报告仅供本公司的客户 使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引 致的任何损失负任何责任。 本报告的信息均来源于本公司认为可信的公开资料，但本公司及其研究人员对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。 本报告中的资料、意见及预测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，可能会随时调整。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本 报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息及资料保持在最新状态，对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8,041 | 6,013 | 4,952 | 5 ...

3.3.5 医疗服务 . 3.3.6 生命科学产业链上游 四、行情回顾与医药热度跟踪 4.1 医药行业行情回顾 4.2 医药行业热度追踪 . 4.3 医药板块个股行情回顾 . 风险埃示 . 图表目录 P.2 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 1960-2022 美国健康险卫生支出比例. 图表 1: | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 图表 2: | 2004-2022 年美国卫生总费用构成 | | 图表 3: | 美国管理式医疗类型 | | 图表 4: | 1999-2021 年德国社会医保、商业健康险覆盖人数比例（%） | | 图表 5: | 2004-2022 年中国卫生总费用构成 | | 图表 6: | 商业健康险角色的升级转型 ...

gszqdatemark 区块链 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------| | | | | AI Agent 作为智能化的代理，其前身可以追溯到意图应用，随着近些年 | 增持（维持） | | AI 的大发展，催生了 Web3.0 世界的 AI Agent。AI Agent 受到市场追 | | | 捧的背后是 AI 技术堆栈、数据模型、经济模型以及 MeMe 等热门应用共 | 作者 | | 同推动的结果。 AI Agent 不仅仅是解放用户双手的助理，其后续的模型 演化甚至能够独立玩转元宇宙世界，从某种意义上看， AI Agent 也许会 | 分析师 宋嘉吉 | | | 执业证书编号： S0680519010002 | | 成为 Web3.0 世界的重要用户群体。 | ...

2024 前三季度图书零售市场码洋降幅环比收窄，内容电商颠覆图书选购模式实现高速 增长。根据北京开卷公众号，2024 年前三季度图书零售市场码洋同比下降 0.68%，环比 降幅收窄，主要是由于 Q2 网店大促与 Q3 暑期和开学季带动。从不同渠道来看，内容电 商（原短视频电商）渠道依然呈现正向增长，同比增长 30.16%，环比增幅扩大，主要是 由于开拓下沉市场带来的增量效应，该渠道具备"爆品"（"弹性"特性，通过"兴趣引导 +算法推送"促成读者被动消费，一定程度上颠覆传统图书选购模式；其他三个渠道持续 呈现负增长，平台电商和垂直及其他电商渠道分别下降 11.96%和 7.46%，实体店渠道 同比下降 6.26%，传统渠道仍面临较大压力。从细分市场来看，教辅、中小学幼儿园教 材等教辅出版及少儿、语言、生活、教育等实现正向增长。 图表75：2024 年 1-9 月不同渠道图书零售市场码洋同比增长率 资料来源：北京开卷公众号，国盛证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...