Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a structural growth in the global photovoltaic (PV) market, with domestic installations expected to reach 270-300 GW in 2025, driven by a policy-induced rush in installations [1][2] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are identified as key growth drivers, contributing significantly to global PV growth, with expectations of 570-630 GW of new installations worldwide [1][26] - The report anticipates a shift in the industry focus from scale expansion to efficiency and value creation, influenced by new policies and market dynamics [2][34] Group 2: Demand Analysis - Domestic demand for PV installations in China showed a 39% year-on-year increase, with a total of 252.87 GW installed from January to October 2025 [11][24] - The report notes a significant surge in installations during May 2025, with a record monthly addition of 92.92 GW, driven by new policy announcements [11][24] - Emerging markets are projected to contribute over 223 GW of new installations in 2025, with notable growth in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America [26][51] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The report discusses a supply-side cleanup in the PV industry, with policies aimed at curbing low-price competition and tightening energy consumption standards [2][34] - The price of polysilicon has rebounded by nearly 50% since July 2025, indicating a recovery in the supply chain and improved profitability for leading companies [2][34] - Technological advancements, such as bifacial cell technology and perovskite solar cells, are expected to enhance efficiency and drive down costs, benefiting upstream material and equipment manufacturers [2][6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three key investment opportunities within the PV industry: price elasticity recovery, new technology adoption, and the commercialization of perovskite solar cells [6][7] - Companies with cost advantages in various segments of the supply chain are recommended for investment, including GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., and LONGi Green Energy [6][7] - The commercialization of perovskite technology is highlighted as a significant opportunity, with companies like JinkoSolar and LONGi benefiting from this trend [6][7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Timing Radar Hexagon **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates equity market performance through a multi-dimensional framework, incorporating liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, technical trends, and crowding indicators. These dimensions are summarized into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macroeconomic Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score within the range of [-1, 1][1][6][8] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 21 indicators across six dimensions (liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, technical trends, and crowding)[1][6] 2. Aggregate these indicators into four categories: - Valuation Cost-Effectiveness - Macroeconomic Fundamentals - Capital & Trend - Crowding & Reversal 3. Normalize the composite score to fall within the range of [-1, 1][6][8] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of market conditions, offering a balanced perspective across multiple dimensions[6][8] Model Backtesting Results - **Timing Radar Hexagon**: - Current composite score: -0.11 (down from -0.01 last week)[6][8] - Liquidity score: 0.25 (neutral to slightly positive)[6][8] - Economic fundamentals score: -0.50 (neutral to slightly negative)[6][8] - Valuation score: -0.51 (neutral to slightly negative)[6][8] - Capital flows score: 1.00 (positive)[6][8] - Technical trends score: 0.00 (neutral)[6][8] - Crowding score: -0.75 (neutral to slightly negative)[6][8] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Liquidity Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Monetary Direction Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures the direction of monetary policy using central bank policy rates and short-term market rates. A positive factor value indicates monetary easing, while a negative value indicates tightening[10] **Construction Process**: - Calculate the average change in policy rates and short-term rates over the past 90 days - Assign a score of 1 if the factor > 0 (easing), and -1 if < 0 (tightening)[10] **Evaluation**: Effectively captures monetary policy direction[10] 2. **Factor Name**: Monetary Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept, measures the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates[12] **Construction Process**: - Compute deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1 - Smooth and z-score the deviation - Assign a score of 1 if the factor < -1.5 standard deviations (easing), and -1 if > 1.5 standard deviations (tightening)[12] **Evaluation**: Captures the intensity of monetary policy changes[12] 3. **Factor Name**: Credit Direction Factor **Construction Idea**: Reflects the trend in credit transmission to the real economy using long-term loan data[15] **Construction Process**: - Calculate the year-over-year growth of long-term loans over the past 12 months - Assign a score of 1 if the factor shows an upward trend compared to three months ago, and -1 if downward[15] **Evaluation**: Tracks credit trends effectively[15] 4. **Factor Name**: Credit Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures whether credit data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[19] **Construction Process**: - Compute (new RMB loans - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign a score of 1 if the factor > 1.5 standard deviations (positive surprise), and -1 if < -1.5 standard deviations (negative surprise)[19] **Evaluation**: Captures credit surprises effectively[19] Economic Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Growth Direction Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on PMI data, measures the trend in economic growth[23] **Construction Process**: - Calculate the 12-month average and year-over-year change of PMI data - Assign a score of 1 if the factor shows an upward trend compared to three months ago, and -1 if downward[23] **Evaluation**: Tracks economic growth trends effectively[23] 2. **Factor Name**: Growth Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures whether economic growth data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[26] **Construction Process**: - Compute (PMI - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign a score of 1 if the factor > 1.5 standard deviations (positive surprise), and -1 if < -1.5 standard deviations (negative surprise)[26] **Evaluation**: Captures growth surprises effectively[26] 3. **Factor Name**: Inflation Direction Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures the trend in inflation using CPI and PPI data[29] **Construction Process**: - Compute 0.5 × smoothed CPI year-over-year + 0.5 × raw PPI year-over-year - Assign a score of 1 if the factor shows a downward trend compared to three months ago, and -1 if upward[29] **Evaluation**: Tracks inflation trends effectively[29] 4. **Factor Name**: Inflation Intensity Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures whether inflation data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[32] **Construction Process**: - Compute (CPI or PPI - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign a score of 1 if the factor < -1.5 standard deviations (negative surprise), and -1 if > 1.5 standard deviations (positive surprise)[32] **Evaluation**: Captures inflation surprises effectively[32] Valuation Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Shiller ERP **Construction Idea**: Adjusts earnings for inflation and calculates the equity risk premium (ERP) relative to 10-year government bond yields[35] **Construction Process**: - Compute Shiller PE = inflation-adjusted average earnings over the past 6 years - Calculate ERP = 1/Shiller PE - 10-year bond yield - Normalize using a 6-year z-score[35] **Evaluation**: Provides a robust measure of equity valuation[35] 2. **Factor Name**: PB **Construction Idea**: Measures valuation using the price-to-book ratio[38] **Construction Process**: - Compute PB × (-1) - Normalize using a 6-year z-score, truncating at ±1.5 standard deviations[38] **Evaluation**: Tracks valuation effectively[38] 3. **Factor Name**: AIAE **Construction Idea**: Measures aggregate investor allocation to equities, reflecting market risk appetite[41] **Construction Process**: - Compute AIAE = total market cap of CSI All Share Index / (total market cap + total debt) - Normalize using a 6-year z-score[41] **Evaluation**: Captures market risk appetite effectively[41] Capital Flow Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Margin Trading Increment **Construction Idea**: Measures the trend in leveraged funds using margin trading data[44] **Construction Process**: - Compute the 120-day average increment of margin trading balances - Assign a score of 1 if the 120-day increment > 240-day increment, and -1 otherwise[44] **Evaluation**: Tracks leveraged fund trends effectively[44] 2. **Factor Name**: Turnover Trend **Construction Idea**: Measures market activity using turnover data[47] **Construction Process**: - Compute log turnover moving average distance = ma120/ma240 - 1 - Assign a score of 1 if max(10, 30, 60-day) > 0, and -1 otherwise[47] **Evaluation**: Captures market activity effectively[47] 3. **Factor Name**: China Sovereign CDS Spread **Construction Idea**: Reflects foreign investors' perception of China's credit risk[50] **Construction Process**: - Compute the 20-day difference of smoothed CDS spreads - Assign a score of 1 if the difference < 0, and -1 otherwise[50] **Evaluation**: Tracks foreign investor sentiment effectively[50] 4. **Factor Name**: Overseas Risk Aversion Index **Construction Idea**: Captures global risk appetite using the Citi RAI Index[53] **Construction Process**: - Compute the 20-day difference of smoothed RAI - Assign a score of 1 if the difference < 0, and -1 otherwise[53] **Evaluation**: Tracks global risk appetite effectively[53] Technical Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Price Trend **Construction Idea**: Measures market trends using moving average distances[56] **Construction Process**:

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 01 04 年 月 日 量化周报 上证指数再次确认日线级别上涨 上证指数再次确认日线级别上涨。节前（12.29-12.31），大盘横盘震荡， 上证指数全周收涨 0.13%。在此背景下，上证指数、汽车、农林牧渔迎来 日线级别上涨。尽管我们有各种理由认为市场的震荡调整不够充分，比如： 1、目前只有科创 50 确认日线级别下跌，且上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、 创业板指、深证成指已开始不创新高，M 头形态已现，未来下跌的概率高； 2、目前仍有 16 个行业处于日线上涨，而且有色、石油石化、化工、建材、 轻工、电力设备及新能源均处于超涨状态。但我们不能用概率替代事实， 事实是：1、上证指数、中小 100 已于节前确认了日线级别上涨，而且上 证指数的上涨只走了 1 浪结构；2、非银、电子、汽车、机械、农林牧渔 于近期重新迎来日线级别上涨，而且非银、农林牧渔上涨只走了 1 浪结构。 因此，我们认为市场节后将迎来开门红，日线上涨将会持续一段时间。中 期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、 科创 50 纷纷确认周 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Insights - The annual negotiated electricity price has been established, leading to a significant drop in trading prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang for 2026, with a decrease of 16.5% and 16.4% respectively. The new energy price subsidy in January is at a maximum of 6.17 cents per kilowatt-hour [3][13] - The electricity market is undergoing a restructuring with the full entry of new energy sources, which is expected to bring about a new equilibrium in electricity pricing sooner than anticipated [3] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors within the electricity industry, noting a general decline in stock prices for most listed companies in the power and utilities sector [6][63] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The average trading price for electricity in Jiangsu for 2026 is 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 16.5% year-on-year, while in Zhejiang it is 344.85 yuan per megawatt-hour, also down 16.4% [13] - The total transaction volume in Jiangsu's electricity market for 2026 is 272.481 billion kilowatt-hours, with a weighted average price of 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour [13] - The report indicates that the electricity prices in 28 regions have been adjusted downwards, with reductions ranging from 0.65% to 24.68% [3][13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4629.94 points, down 0.59%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3042.43 points, down 2.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.76 percentage points [6][63] - Most stocks in the power and utilities sector experienced declines, with notable drops in companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International [67] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend coal-fired power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and coal-electric integration, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Guodian Power [3] - It also recommends investing in flexible coal-fired power transformation leaders and companies in the wind and solar sectors, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [3] - For the gas sector, it highlights quality leaders like Chengran and New Hope Energy, which are expected to recover profits while maintaining stable dividends [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Libat, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the nuclear power sector [5]. Core Insights - The nuclear power industry is expected to see a significant increase in construction investment, with an average of 64 billion yuan annually driven by new nuclear power station approvals [1][8]. - Modular construction techniques are being increasingly adopted in the third-generation nuclear power projects, which are anticipated to enhance construction efficiency and reduce costs [2][11]. - Libat is positioned as a leading player in the nuclear modular construction market, with expected incremental performance contributions of 460 million yuan from its nuclear business [3][14]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Investment Trends - The approval of new nuclear power stations is gradually increasing, with an expected average of 7.3 units approved annually from 2025 to 2035, leading to substantial construction investments [1][8]. - Each approved unit is estimated to require a total investment of 20 billion yuan, resulting in approximately 1,600 billion yuan in total investment if 8 units are constructed annually [1][8]. Modular Construction Developments - Modular construction is set to significantly reduce the construction period of nuclear power plants, with the civil engineering phase expected to take only 36 months [2][11]. - The adoption of integrated large modules in projects like the Ningde Phase II is a notable advancement, showcasing the potential for improved efficiency and safety in construction [3][14]. Company-Specific Insights - Libat has a strong technological reserve in the nuclear sector and has been proactive in developing its modular business, which is expected to yield substantial revenue growth [3][14]. - The company has secured contracts for significant projects, including a 230 million yuan contract for the Ningde Phase II project, indicating strong market demand and recognition [3][14].

Group 1 - The market outlook for January indicates a consensus on asset allocation trends, focusing on industrial catalysts while maintaining a trading mindset. The medium-term trend remains upward, supported by domestic and international monetary easing, with significant potential for household wealth entering the market. However, short-term market movements are driven by narratives, policy games, and industrial catalysts, with weak profit-related drivers [1][8]. - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, recommending investments in assets aligned with market consensus. Key areas of interest in technology include AI computing power, energy storage, and storage chips, while cyclical sectors should focus on intersections of anti-involution and price validation, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and steel [2][8]. Group 2 - The recommended stocks for January include: 1. Dongyangguang (600673.SH): Leveraging its fluorochemical capabilities, the company is advancing into liquid cooling and acquiring a leading AIDC player, with a blueprint for AI infrastructure emerging. The acquisition of Qinhuai Data is progressing, with a total transaction value of 28 billion RMB expected to be completed soon [3][9]. 2. Jinpan Technology (688676.SH): An overseas AIDC core supplier, the company has seen its overseas revenue share exceed 30% in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in data center revenues [13][14]. 3. Yaopi Glass (600819.SH): The company is entering a harvest period for automotive glass, with TCO glass showing substantial growth potential. The transition to high-value products is evident, with a projected net profit growth of 26.2% over the next three years [16][17].

数字人民币 2.0 时代启幕：政策红利与科技创新赋能银行板块高质量发展 中国人民银行出台《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关 金融基础设施建设的行动方案》（以下简称《行动方案》），明确数字 人民币将从数字现金时代迈入数字存款货币时代 。 新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启动实施。这一政策标志着数字人民币从现金型 1.0 版迈入存款货币型 2.0 版，核心变化是商业银行钱包内的数字人民币 由央行负债转变为商业银行负债，数字人民币具备价值尺度、价值储 增持（维持） 行业走势 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 2025-12 银行 沪深300 一、政策亮点：重构属性与机制，筑牢安全基础 《行动方案》的核心突破在于重构数字人民币的货币属性和运营机制。 最显著的变化是实名数字人民币钱包余额将按存款利率定价自律约定 计付利息，这意味着数字人民币从"电子零钱"转变为"数字存款"， 用户持有实名数字人民币钱包可获得与银行存款同等的安全保障（纳 入存款保险范畴）和利息收益。 政策同时明确两类监管要求： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The C-REITs market is experiencing a transition between bull and bear phases, with a policy package at the end of 2025 aimed at supporting the new journey in 2026 [1] - The overall performance of the C-REITs secondary market has shown a downward trend, with specific sectors like warehousing logistics performing better compared to municipal water conservancy and affordable housing, which faced larger declines [2][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy themes and the timing of investments in high-quality, undervalued projects, particularly in high-energy cities and professional operations [5] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index decreased by 0.49% this week, closing at 1009.8 points, while the CSI REITs index fell by 0.67% to 778.6 points [1][10] - In 2025, the CSI REITs total return index increased by 4.34%, while the CSI REITs index saw a decline of 1.39% [10] C-REITs Secondary Market Performance - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 218.46 billion yuan, with an average market value of about 2.8 billion yuan per REIT [2][12] - This week, 23 REITs increased in value while 55 decreased, resulting in an average weekly decline of 0.47% [12] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (10.9%), Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (10%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (8.8%) [4] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being Huaxia Anbo Warehousing REIT (1.8) and the lowest being Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (0.7) [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on policy themes and timing for investments in resilient and high-quality undervalued projects, particularly in high-energy cities [5] - It also emphasizes the importance of asset resilience and market prices when considering investments in affordable housing and other weak-cycle assets [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Insights - The consumption market shows strong growth during the New Year holiday, with significant increases in travel and spending among younger demographics [1][2][4] - The cross-year travel and ice-snow tourism are gaining popularity, with notable increases in ticket bookings and hotel reservations [2] - Hainan's duty-free sales doubled in the first two days of the New Year holiday, indicating robust consumer interest [3] - Various cities reported double-digit sales growth during the holiday, reflecting a vibrant consumption environment [4][7] Summary by Sections Travel Trends - High travel enthusiasm was noted during the New Year holiday, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and hotel reservations, particularly among younger travelers [1][2] - The search volume for "cross-year travel" increased by 125% year-on-year, with theme parks and concerts being major attractions [2] Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 30.7 million items, with a 121.5% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 5.05 billion yuan [3] - The sales in Sanya alone saw a remarkable increase, with sales amounting to 1.63 billion yuan on January 1, marking an 83.2% increase [3] Consumption Growth - Beijing's sales during the holiday reached 4.04 billion yuan, with a 16.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Shanghai reported an average daily consumption of 12.2 billion yuan, with online sales growing by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - Other cities like Qingdao and Nanjing also reported positive sales growth, indicating a broad recovery in consumer spending [4][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Hainan and sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, cross-border e-commerce, and certain scenic spots [8] - It highlights the potential of new consumption trends and the importance of adapting to market changes in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puyang Huicheng, San Ke Shu, and Beixin Building Materials, while recommending "Hold" for Weixing New Materials [9]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector experienced a decline of 1.25% from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with cement down 1.54%, glass manufacturing down 3.53%, and fiberglass down 1.19% [12]. - The recent policy change regarding the personal sales tax on housing is expected to impact the market positively, with potential for further supportive measures [1]. - The cement industry is currently facing weak demand, with prices fluctuating around the breakeven point, and a focus on improving cash flow rather than just sales volume [2][17]. - The glass market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, but self-regulation in the photovoltaic glass sector may alleviate some pressure [3][7]. - Consumer building materials are benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a long-term potential for market share growth [1][8]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of December 31, 2025, the national cement price index was 352.65 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.06% from the previous week [17]. - The cement output for the week was 2.847 million tons, down 1.04% week-on-week, indicating a continued contraction in demand as temperatures drop and the Spring Festival approaches [2][17]. - The utilization rate of cement clinker production lines was 38.43%, showing a slight increase, while the cement inventory ratio decreased to 59.1% [17]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass was 1121.29 CNY/ton as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a 1.65% decline from the previous week [3]. - Inventory levels for float glass increased year-on-year, indicating ongoing supply challenges despite some production line shutdowns [3][7]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is currently stable, with no significant price changes reported, although demand remains weak [7]. - The electronic fiberglass segment continues to see strong demand for high-end products, while traditional fiberglass demand is expected to decline [7]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of weak recovery, with stable prices for key raw materials like asphalt and acrylic but fluctuations in aluminum and natural gas prices [8]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in companies like San Ke Shu and Beixin Building Materials due to favorable market conditions [1][8].