证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 23 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 跨年行情的复盘与展望 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【策略研究】跨年行情的复盘与展望——20251222 【金融工程】转债估值持续位于历史高位——十二月可转债量化月报— —20251222 【固定收益】食品价格继续回升——基本面高频数据跟踪——20251222 【区块链】存款代币：平衡"天才法案"与银行利益——20251222 ◼ 研究视点 【基础化工】CPO 重塑光网络格局，材料从Ⅲ-Ⅴ族向硅基平台过渡—— 20251222 【环保】政策+技术双轮驱动，固废循环添新机——20251222 【煤炭】澳大利亚煤电需扩能两倍以支撑 2050 年电力需求增长—— 20251222 【非银金融】行业周报| 险企资产负债管理系统性升级 ——20251222 【美容护理】青松股份（300132.SZ）-公司业绩回暖，盈利能力提升— —20251222 【社会服务】粉笔（02469.HK）-与华图战略合作，AI 产品矩阵持续丰富 ——20251222 作者 | 分析师 | 张津铭 | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on a PE of 26 times for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in performance, with revenue and profit improving significantly after a four-year adjustment period from 2021 to 2024. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.553 billion yuan (up 12.0% year-on-year), and net profit attributable to the parent company reached 111 million yuan (up 247.0% year-on-year) [1][12]. - The core business of face masks has seen a significant rebound in growth, driving overall performance. In the first half of 2025, the revenue from face masks was 450 million yuan (up 21% year-on-year), contributing to the company's growth [2][18]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 19.2% (up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year), and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 4.9% [1][12]. - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching 139 million yuan (up 50.1% year-on-year) for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong operational health [1][12]. - The company forecasts revenues of 2.172 billion yuan, 2.439 billion yuan, and 2.681 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.0%, 12.3%, and 9.9% [3][27]. Business Segment Performance - The face mask segment is the primary driver of growth, with a notable increase in revenue and improvement in gross margins. The gross margins for face masks, skincare, and wet wipes were 19.0%, 16.7%, and 13.5%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [2][25]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a significant improvement in the net profit margin, which reached 8.0% in Q3 2025, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [1][16].

- The report introduces the **CCBA pricing deviation model** to evaluate the valuation level of convertible bonds. The pricing deviation is calculated as: $ Pricing\ Deviation = \frac{Convertible\ Bond\ Price}{CCBA\ Model\ Price} - 1 $ This model highlights that the current pricing deviation of the convertible bond market is 8.12%, which is at the 99.6% and 99.3% percentiles compared to 2018 and 2021 levels, respectively. The model suggests that the market is in a "high valuation, low odds" state, reducing the long-term allocation value of convertible bonds[6][11][23] - The **Convertible Bond & Stock-Bond Rotation Strategy** is constructed based on the CCBA pricing deviation. The Z-score is calculated as: $ Z = \frac{Pricing\ Deviation}{Standard\ Deviation\ of\ Past\ 3\ Years} $ The Z-score is truncated at ±1.5 standard deviations and normalized to a score. Convertible bond weight is determined as: $ Convertible\ Bond\ Weight = 50\% + 50\% \times Score $ The remaining allocation is assigned to a stock-bond portfolio (50% 7-10Y Treasury + 50% CSI 1000 Total Return Index). This strategy achieves stable excess returns by overweighting convertible bonds during undervaluation and vice versa[11][17][23] - The **Low Valuation Strategy** uses the CCBA_out model, which incorporates delisting risk into the CCBA pricing model. The pricing deviation is calculated as: $ Pricing\ Deviation = \frac{Convertible\ Bond\ Price}{CCBA\_out\ Model\ Price} - 1 $ The strategy selects the 15 convertible bonds with the lowest deviation in each of the three domains (biased debt, balanced, biased equity), forming a pool of 45 bonds. Bonds must have a balance of over 3 billion and a rating of AA- or above. The strategy achieves an absolute return of 20.5% and an excess return of 9.7% since 2018[23][25][26] - The **Low Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy** combines the CCBA_out pricing deviation factor with the stock momentum factor. The stock momentum factor is constructed using equal-weighted scores of stock returns over the past 1, 3, and 6 months. This strategy achieves an absolute return of 24.3% and an excess return of 13.1% since 2018, with strong elasticity[26][28][29] - The **Low Valuation + High Turnover Strategy** selects the lowest 50% valuation convertible bonds based on the CCBA_out pricing deviation. Within this pool, convertible bonds with high turnover rates are chosen using turnover factors (5-day and 21-day turnover rates). This strategy achieves an absolute return of 23.2% and an excess return of 12.1% since 2018[29][31][32] - The **Balanced Biased Debt Enhanced Strategy** selects the lowest 50% valuation convertible bonds based on the CCBA_out pricing deviation. Biased debt bonds are further filtered using turnover rate and stock momentum factors, while balanced bonds are filtered using turnover rate factors. This strategy achieves an annualized absolute return of 22.3%, with volatility and drawdown controlled at 7.6% and 4.5%, respectively[32][34][35] - The **Credit Bond Substitution Strategy** filters convertible bonds with YTM+1% greater than the YTM of 3-year AA-rated credit bonds. Convertible bonds must have a balance of over 3 billion and a rating of AA- or above. Within this pool, the top 20 bonds with the strongest 1-month stock momentum are selected, with individual bond weights capped at 2%. Remaining allocation is assigned to credit bonds. This strategy achieves an absolute return of 7.1%, with volatility and drawdown below 3%[35][36][37] - The **Volatility Control Strategy** combines enhanced strategies for biased debt, balanced, and biased equity convertible bonds, along with credit bonds. The portfolio volatility is controlled at 4% using a volatility control method. This strategy achieves an absolute return of 9.4%, with volatility and drawdown controlled at 4%-5%[37][39][41] - **Performance Metrics** for the strategies: - **Low Valuation Strategy**: Annualized return of 20.5%, excess return of 9.7%, IR of 1.64[26] - **Low Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy**: Annualized return of 24.3%, excess return of 13.1%, IR of 2.25[29] - **Low Valuation + High Turnover Strategy**: Annualized return of 23.2%, excess return of 12.1%, IR of 1.95[32] - **Balanced Biased Debt Enhanced Strategy**: Annualized return of 22.3%, volatility of 12.1%, drawdown of 13.9%[35] - **Credit Bond Substitution Strategy**: Annualized return of 7.1%, volatility of 2.1%, drawdown of 2.8%[37] - **Volatility Control Strategy**: Annualized return of 9.4%, volatility of 4.4%, drawdown of 4.4%[41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The strategic partnership with Huatu aims to explore various areas including investment cooperation, corporate governance, technology development, distribution channel collaboration, industry self-regulation, and customer service [1]. - The collaboration is expected to enhance market share and restore profitability due to the complementary strengths of both leading companies in the industry [2]. - The AI product matrix is continuously expanding, with significant sales achievements, including over 14,000 units sold in a single day for the AI question-answering system class [2]. - The company plans to increase its AI R&D investment by 30% annually and collaborate with top institutions to build an educational large model laboratory [2]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 2.67 billion, 2.78 billion, and 2.98 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits of 298 million, 375 million, and 445 million RMB [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit growth rates are expected to be -17.9% in 2025, 25.9% in 2026, and 18.7% in 2027 [4][11]. - The company’s P/E ratios for the next three years are projected to be 15.3x, 12.1x, and 10.2x respectively [4][11].

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 22 年 月 日 区块链 存款代币：平衡"天才法案"与银行利益 "天才法案"推出后，美国银行家协会公开呼吁修改"天才法案"，认为 "天才法案"框架下挂钩法币的代币会对美国现存的金融系统构成威胁， 银行业担忧代币快速发展可能导致巨额存款外流，推高银行资金成本，削 弱信贷能力，并抬高企业和家庭贷款利率。在此背景下，摩根大通推出存 款代币，在银行流动性管理和代币业务之间做了微妙的平衡。 "天才法案"框架下，会造成银行业的存款流失，甚至"金融脱媒"。某种 程度上，挂钩法币的代币与存款具有类似"法币"的相同特点，但两者的 区别同样明显，这些区别可能对银行业产生一些深远影响。例如，代币对 银行传统信贷业务带来一定冲击，传统银行信贷业务靠息差的盈利模式在 代币发行过程中并不存在，代币发行方获得储备资产的低风险资产收益， 而用户并不会获得任何利息。因此，代币看似避开了信贷风险，但银行发 行代币势必也会失去信贷业务。进而导致的结果是，若将存款转换为代币 的资产储备，将抽走银行体系的存款；若企业长期持有或应用代币，银行 体系也将失去相应的存款（同时失去金融 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points (previous value: 129.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points (previous increase: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 3.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [2][10]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.7 (previous value: 127.7), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 40.8 (previous value: 41.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.1 (previous value: 122.2), with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.4 points (previous increase: 0.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 121.1 (previous value: 121.0), with a week - on - week increase of 3.4 points (previous increase: 3.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%); the month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.2%) [2][11]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 163.6 (previous value: 163.4), with a week - on - week increase of 7.4 points (previous increase: 7.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The high - frequency transportation index is 133.7 (previous value: 133.4), with a week - on - week increase of 11.0 points (previous increase: 10.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The high - frequency financing index is 245.2 (previous value: 244.6), with a week - on - week increase of 30.9 points (previous increase: 30.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and its sub - items are built [9]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points, with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded [2][10]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Rises - The current electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 60.3%); the polyester operating rate is 88.9% (previous value: 88.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 71.4% (previous value: 71.6%); the full - tire operating rate is 64.1% (previous value: 64.1%); the PTA operating rate is 73.8% (previous value: 73.8%); the PX operating rate is 89.2% (previous value: 89.2%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 42.4 tons (previous value: 43.9 tons) [16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Recovers - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the current week is 34.9 million square meters (previous value: 27.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.7% (previous value: 1.9%) [27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Fluctuates Narrowly - The current asphalt operating rate is 27.6% (previous value: 27.8%) [42]. 3.5 Exports: Freight Rate Index Rises Slightly - The current CCFI index is 1124.7 points (previous value: 1118.1 points); the RJ/CRB index is 293.9 points (previous value: 300.3 points) [44]. 3.6 Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Declines - The daily average movie box office is 98.36 million yuan (previous value: 171.46 million yuan) [53]. 3.7 CPI: Fruit Prices Rise - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [60]. 3.8 PPI: Kerosene Prices Fall, Copper and Aluminum Spot Prices Continue to Rise - The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 719 yuan/ton (previous value: 761 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 60 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 62 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 11,739 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,692 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,855 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,849 US dollars/ton) [64]. 3.9 Transportation: Subway Passenger Volume Declines - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the current week is 38.63 million person - times (previous value: 39.83 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1051 points (previous value: 1052 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,172 (previous value: 12,137) [75]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases Significantly - The current electrolytic aluminum inventory is 190,000 tons (previous value: 167,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 151,600 tons (previous value: 149,800 tons) [82]. 3.11 Financing: Local Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local bonds in the week is 28.1 billion yuan (previous value: 62.3 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 57.5 billion yuan (previous value: 73.2 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91% (previous value: 0.84%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.72% (previous value: - 0.79%) [94].

上证指数确认日线级别下跌 量化周报 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 上证指数确认日线级别下跌。本周（12.15-12.19），大盘先抑后扬，上证 指数全周收涨 0.03%。在此背景下，上证指数、银行、建筑、传媒、交运、 电力及公用事业、纺服纷纷确认日线级别下跌，商贸零售迎来日线级别上 涨。当下，我们认为市场的震荡调整态势仍将得以延续，主要理由如下： 1、目前规模指数中只有上证指数、科创 50、中小 100 确认日线级别下跌， 从历史统计看，其它规模指数跟随确认日线下跌的概率高；2、上证 50、 沪深 300、中证 500、创业板指、深证成指已开始不创新高，M 头形态已 现，未来下跌的概率高；3、目前虽然有 17 个行业处于日线下跌中，但仍 有三分之一的行业处于日线上涨，而且有色、石油石化、化工、建材、电 力设备及新能源均处于超涨状态。未来一段时间，市场大概率仍以震荡下 行为主。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、 创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪 结构，中期牛市只进行到上半场；此外 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for several companies including China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and Jinneng Holding Coal Industry [3][8]. Core Viewpoints - Australia's electricity demand is projected to double by 2050, necessitating a twofold increase in coal power capacity to ensure supply during the transition period. Total electricity demand is expected to rise from 205 billion kWh to 389 billion kWh by the fiscal year 2049-50, with significant contributions from high-energy industries such as industrial electrification and data centers [2][3]. - Current coal power capacity in Australia has decreased from approximately 30,000 MW to about 21,000 MW, with aging units averaging over 40 years of operation. Non-scheduled outages are expected to reach 7% of total operating time from 2027 to 2035, indicating a critical need for coal power to maintain grid stability during the transition to renewable energy [3][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a significant decline in Australia's coal power capacity and the urgent need for expansion to meet future electricity demands. The transition to renewable energy sources is progressing but faces substantial gaps in implementation [2][3][8]. Key Companies - Recommended companies include: - Yancoal Australia (Buy) - Jinneng Holding Coal Industry (Buy) - China Coal Energy (Buy) - China Shenhua (Buy) - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (Buy) - Huainan Mining (Buy) - China Qinfa (Buy) [3][8]. Price Trends - Coal prices have shown mixed trends, with Newcastle coal prices at $105 per ton, down by $2.75 per ton (-2.55%), while European ARA coal prices increased slightly to $96.21 per ton, up by $0.64 per ton (+0.67%) [1][3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial sector [6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from the trend of bank deposits moving to insurance products, with a positive outlook for the liability side performance in 2026 due to successful short-term sales initiatives. The introduction of a tiered product pricing structure is anticipated to significantly alleviate the risk of interest spread losses. The "reporting and operation integration" is expected to promote industry consolidation and enhance the concentration of leading companies [4][31]. - The securities sector is experiencing a rise in market risk appetite and sustained high trading activity, benefiting from both valuation and performance attributes [4][31]. - Key companies to watch include China Ping An, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [4][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics - The insurance sector is undergoing a systematic upgrade in asset-liability management, with new regulations requiring comprehensive coverage, reasonable matching, and robust supervision. The new rules include three mandatory indicators for property insurance companies, all of which must not fall below 100% [1][2]. - The report highlights the performance of listed insurance companies, with New China Life reporting a cumulative premium income of 188.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [14]. 2. Securities - The public fund performance benchmark reform has been initiated, focusing on the transformation of existing products and ensuring a smooth transition without drastic changes to holdings. The reform aims to enhance the attractiveness of the capital market [18]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 22,219 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.20% week-on-week [22]. 3. Multi-Financial - Nanhua Futures has set the final price for its H-share issuance at 12 HKD per share, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, specifically for Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [4][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the dual drivers of policy and technology in promoting solid waste recycling and carbon reduction in the industrial sector. It highlights the recent State Council meeting's focus on establishing a comprehensive governance system for solid waste management, aiming for reduction, resource utilization, and harmless disposal [1][11]. - The "National Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Technology Equipment Recommendation Directory (2025 Edition)" aims to enhance carbon reduction effectiveness through the promotion of advanced technology across the industrial chain, directly driving down carbon emissions [12][16]. - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from carbon neutrality, particularly those with technological advantages and project implementation capabilities, such as Huicheng Environmental and Gaoneng Environment [1][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by historically low interest rates, making high-dividend assets and growth-oriented companies attractive. The report recommends focusing on companies with strong cash flow and low valuations, particularly in the resource recycling sector [2][17]. Industry News - Recent regulatory measures include the issuance of guidelines for urban construction waste management in Hunan Province and an action plan for air pollution control in Xi'an [3][31]. - The environmental sector's performance was mixed, with the sector underperforming the broader market but outperforming the ChiNext index. Notable stock movements included significant gains for Xianhe Environmental and Guozhong Water, while Zhongdong Public Utilities and Yishida saw substantial declines [20][31]. Key Companies - **Huicheng Environmental**: Focuses on hazardous waste resource utilization and has a strong project pipeline, including breakthroughs in waste plastic recycling technology [18][19]. - **Gaoneng Environment**: Aims to become a leading environmental service provider with a robust project portfolio in hazardous waste management [18]. - **Hongcheng Environment**: Demonstrates steady growth with a diversified business model covering water treatment and solid waste disposal, alongside a strong dividend payout [19]. Market Performance - The environmental sector's performance was generally weak, with a decline of 0.84% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's slight increase of 0.03%. The solid waste sub-sector showed a positive trend with a 1.96% increase [20][31].