Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank protected the cross - month liquidity. Capital prices declined, and bill rates hit a new low for the year. The central bank conducted net open - market operations to inject funds during the cross - month period and then shifted to net withdrawal after the cross - month period [1]. - Certificate of deposit (CD) yields decreased, and the government bond yield curve shifted downward. CD net financing rebounded, with large - bank CD issuance rates rising and the average issuance term shortening [2]. - Next week, the net issuance of government bonds will decrease, while the net payment amount will increase. Inter - bank repurchase trading volume and leverage ratio declined before the cross - month period and rebounded after it [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Capital Market - **Capital Prices**: R001 closed at 1.35% (previous 1.55%), DR001 at 1.31% (previous 1.52%), R007 at 1.49% (previous 1.69%), and DR007 at 1.42% (previous 1.65%). The 6M national - share bank bill transfer and discount rate closed at 0.79% (previous 0.72%), hitting a new low of 0.40% for the year during the week [1]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 1663.2 billion yuan, with 1656.3 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan. There was also 1.2 trillion yuan of buy - out reverse repurchase maturing this week [1]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield and Net Financing**: CD yields decreased. The 3M, 6M, and 1Y yields decreased by 4.44bp, 5.13bp, and 4.00bp respectively. CD net financing was 10 billion yuan (previous - 559.8 billion yuan) [2]. - **Issuance Rate and Term**: The 1Y CD issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.63%, 1.63%, 1.70%, and 1.75% respectively, with changes of + 0.35bp, - 4.30bp, + 0.84bp, and + 6.67bp compared to the previous period. The weighted average issuance term was 5.9M (previous 7.3M) [2]. 3.3 Government Bonds - **This Week**: National debt net issuance was 160.2 billion yuan, and local government bond net issuance was 243.1 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of 403.3 billion yuan and a total net payment of 294.7 billion yuan [3]. - **Next Week**: It is expected that national debt net issuance will be 283 billion yuan, and local government bond net issuance will be 82.8 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of 365.8 billion yuan and a total net payment of 302.2 billion yuan [3]. 3.4 Market Transactions and Leverage - **Trading Volume**: The average daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions was 6.74 trillion yuan (previous 7.70 trillion yuan) [3]. - **Leverage Ratio**: The average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 108.72% (previous 108.85%) [3].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 08 03 年 月 日 量化专题报告 "量价淘金"选股因子系列研究（十三） 事件簇：量价事件驱动信号的规模化生产 前言：本文为国盛金工《"量价淘金"选股因子系列研究》的第十三篇报 告，也是"事件簇"系列研究的首次尝试。在截面多因子策略竞争加剧的 背景下，我们希望从"时序"视角挖掘不一样的 Alpha 信息，帮助策略迭 代。相比于基本面数据，量价数据在更新频率、股票覆盖度方面都更具优 势，因此本文先聚焦"量价类"事件驱动策略的研究。 趋势资金事件信号的体系化构建思路：将""因子簇"的研究理念拓展到事 件驱动信号的构建上。具体地，本文以"识别趋势资金入场信号"为例， 利用高频量价数据，多维度、多视角地识别趋势资金并分析其交易行为， 批量挖掘事件驱动信号，得到""趋势资金事件簇"。最终将事件簇中的有效 信号合成，得到更为稳定的综合信号，构建趋势资金事件驱动策略。 趋势资金事件信号的规模化生成：将趋势资金事件驱动信号的构建流程拆 分为"事件识别"、"信号定义"、"信号筛选与合成"这 3 个步骤，分别展 开详细讨论：（1）事件识别：通过观测成交量、价格涨跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The AI computing infrastructure is transitioning from an "investment phase" to a "harvest phase," with significant capital expenditure increases from major cloud service providers indicating high industry prosperity [6][22] - The domestic AI computing industry is gradually building a self-controlled computing system, supported by policy, technological iteration, and ecological collaboration, although challenges such as reliance on imported high-end GPUs remain [24][26] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the computing sector, particularly in optical communication companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, as well as domestic computing supply chains including liquid cooling segments like Yingweike and Dongyangguang [6][14][26] Market Performance - The communication sector has seen an increase, with the optical communication index performing the best, rising by 8.5% [18][21] - Tianfu Communication led the sector with a 25% increase in stock price, benefiting from AI concepts [19][20] AI Computing Infrastructure - Major cloud providers like Google, Meta, and Microsoft have significantly increased their capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, with Google raising its 2025 capital expenditure guidance from $75 billion to $85 billion, primarily for AI infrastructure and server investments [25][26] - The report highlights that the demand for AI services is experiencing explosive growth, with Google Cloud revenue increasing by 32% year-over-year to $13.62 billion, driven by AI contributions [25][26] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows NVIDIA increasing orders for GPUs, while the demand side indicates a projected investment of 655 billion yuan in AI-related projects in China for 2025, reflecting a 51% increase [11][25][26] - The report notes that the market may be underestimating the long-term growth potential and certainty of overseas computing infrastructure [6][26] Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring key players in the computing sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, as well as companies involved in liquid cooling and edge computing platforms [6][14][26]

事件：公司 2025 年上半年实现营业收入 13.7 亿元，同比增长 12%，实 现归母净利润 3.1 亿元，同比增长 12%，扣非归母净利润 3 亿元，同比增 长 13%。单 Q2 来看，实现营收 8.1 亿元，同比增长 5%，实现归母净利 润 1.7 亿元，同比增长 3%。 国际化战略加速落地，海外收入占比突破 20%。海外营收 2.8 亿元，同 比增长 26%，占比提升至 21%（较 24 全年占比提升 5 个百分点），增速 远超国内业务（国内业务营收 10.8 亿元，同比增长 9%，占比 79%）。 公司全球化布局进展顺利，印尼工厂全面投产，沙特工厂预计下半年可投 产，墨西哥工厂建设积极推进，且在阿联酋/孟加拉/埃及等设有制造工厂， 未来有望进军南非等区域。我们认为，公司积极拓展海外，依靠自身优质 产品能力有望逐步拓展到系统和生态集成交付模式，进一步提升全球市场 话语权，创造多个营收增长极，目前公司海外业务整体尚处于前期投资阶 段，未来释放利润后有望进一步增强公司盈利能力。 订单储备创新高，电网主业韧性凸显，智能终端下半年有望加速迭代。公 司上半年新签订单 16 亿元（同比+8%），在手订单 40 亿 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The restoration of VAT on some bonds is a one - time policy that does not affect the bond market trend. The new bond interest rate may increase by 2.8 - 5.4bps, and the new - old bond spread may be around 5.6 - 10.8bp [1][3] - The VAT restoration may increase total tax revenue by about 31.55 billion yuan. Banks' tax burden increase is the most obvious, and the tax scale increase of treasury bonds and local bonds is the most significant [2][16] - It is negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, and positive for general credit bonds. It is beneficial for old bonds and negative for new bonds. Currently, the tax advantage of public funds in interest - rate bonds is strengthened, but there is a possibility of adjustment [3][18] - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized in the future. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled is a matter of future concern [4][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Tax Policy Adjustment - Since August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date. The interest income of bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [1][7] Bond Investment Tax Calculation - For general taxpayers, the VAT rate for bond investment is 6%, and the VAT and surcharges combined rate is 6.34%. The enterprise income tax rate is 25%, and assuming a 6% VAT rate, the enterprise income tax is 23.42% of the taxable interest or transfer spread [8] Previous Tax Preferences - Specific tax types: Interest income from treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from VAT and income tax; the income tax rate of railway bonds is halved; policy - financial bonds are exempt from individual income tax [9] - Specific institutions: Interest income from financial inter - bank transactions is exempt from VAT; public funds' interest income is exempt from income tax, and transfer income is exempt from VAT and income tax; asset management product managers use a simplified VAT calculation method [9] Post - adjustment Tax Rates - Public funds and other asset management products' VAT rate on interest income from newly - issued bonds after August 8, 2025 is 3.26%, while banks' self - operated investment in such bonds has a VAT rate of 6.34% [9][10] Impact on Different Institutions - It is generally negative for all types of institutions, with banks' self - operated tax cost increasing the most. The estimated VAT scale for banks' self - operated investment in newly - issued bonds is 232.73 billion yuan [14][15] Impact on Different Bond Types - Negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, positive for general credit bonds. Negative for new bonds and positive for old bonds [3][18] Future Outlook - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled needs to be continuously observed [4][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in its 2025 H1 results, with revenue reaching 999.1 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.18% [1]. - The integrated circuit analysis segment showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 21.01%, driven by the rising demand in downstream industries [1]. - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control, with a decrease in expense ratios across various categories, contributing to its profitability [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.335 billion yuan, 2.659 billion yuan, and 2.992 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.3%, 13.8%, and 12.5% respectively [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 306 million yuan, 377 million yuan, and 445 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 33.5%, 23.0%, and 18.3% respectively [3][4]. - The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 27.2, 22.1, and 18.7 times [3][4]. Business Model and Market Position - The company has established a unique business model that integrates testing equipment and services, creating a high technical barrier and a comprehensive one-stop testing service platform [2]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid development of new technologies such as 5G and the Internet of Things, which are expected to drive future growth [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5][37] Core Viewpoints - The market heat has declined in July, with sales showing a significant year-on-year drop, reaching a six-year low for the same period [1][14] - The sales performance of top real estate companies varies, with some showing stability while others experience significant declines [4][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven market dynamics and suggests that 2025 will be dominated by policy influences [5][37] Summary by Sections July Market Performance - In July, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 211.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.7% [1][14] - From January to July, the top 100 companies recorded a total sales amount of 1.8639 trillion yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year [1][14] Sales by Company Tier - The sales decline is observed across all tiers, with the smallest drop in the TOP21-30 tier at 6.3% year-on-year, while the TOP10 tier saw a decline of 14.9% [2][16] - The sales threshold for the top 100 companies decreased significantly, with the threshold for the top 10 dropping from 52.65 billion yuan to 49.16 billion yuan, a decline of 6.6% [3][28] Performance of Leading Companies - Some leading state-owned and benchmark private enterprises showed stable sales, with Yuexiu Property achieving a year-on-year growth of 12.6% in July [4][33] - Among the top 40 companies, 11 reported positive year-on-year growth in July, with the best performer being Bangtai Group at 82.6% [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to several reasons, including the expectation of stronger policy support compared to previous years and the potential for quality companies to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [5][37] - Recommended stocks include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [5][37]

Employment Data Summary - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] - The June non-farm data was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, matching expectations, and the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 1.6%, Nasdaq down 2.2%, and Dow Jones down 1.2%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 14.6 basis points to 4.22%, while the dollar index fell by 1.4% to 98.7[3] - Gold prices surged by 2.2% to $3,362.6 per ounce[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased from 40% to 87%[3] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 rose from an average of 1.3 to 2.4 times, indicating at least two cuts are anticipated[3] Economic Assessment - The significant downward revision in non-farm data does not necessarily indicate an imminent recession, as high-frequency indicators remain strong[4] - The downward adjustments are attributed to government layoffs, increased immigration enforcement, and natural disasters affecting employment statistics[5] Seasonal Market Trends - Historically, August and September are weak months for overseas stock markets, with a potential shift to a risk-on environment if non-farm data improves in September or October[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6 million yuan, down 96.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 698 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 19 million yuan, a decrease of 73.75% year-on-year [1] - The company sold approximately 160 million broiler chicks in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with an average selling price of 2.4 yuan per chick, up about 0.1 yuan from Q1 2025 [1] - The report highlights a seasonal rebound in chick prices expected in Q3 2025, driven by market replenishment in the peak season of September and October [1] - The company experienced a loss of 6.46 million yuan in investment income in Q2 2025, primarily due to losses from its stake in Beidahuang Baoquanling Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [1] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 200 million, 570 million, and 590 million yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -60.2%, +186.3%, and +2.6% respectively [2] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2026 is 17 times [2] - The financial indicators for 2025E show a revenue of 3.113 billion yuan, a net profit of 200 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.18 yuan per share [4]

Tax Policy Changes - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, creating a "new and old distinction" in tax application[6] Reasons for Tax Resumption - The historical mission of the tax exemption policy has been completed, as the bond market has grown significantly, now ranking second globally[3] - The resumption aims to adjust the funding structure and prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and alleviating fiscal pressure[4] Financial Impact - The short-term revenue from the resumption of VAT on interest income is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan[5] - The tax revenue is expected to increase further as the scale of new debt issuance expands over time[5] Market Implications - In the short term, the resumption of VAT is likely to push interest rates down and create pricing differences between new and old bonds[8] - Long-term effects may be bearish for interest-bearing bonds as the cost advantage diminishes, potentially shifting investment towards credit bonds and dividend assets[8] Market Trends - Since mid-July, bond market volatility has increased significantly, influenced by liquidity conditions and strong stock market performance[9] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.75%[9]