其 他 报 告 2025年02月14日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3332 | -0.42 | 1.63 | | 深证成份指数 | 10627 | -0.77 | 4.13 | | 沪深300指数 | 3905 | -0.38 | 1.98 | | 创业板指数 | 2176 | -0.71 | 5.36 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | -0.01 | 0.23 | | 上证基金指数 | 6945 | -0.33 | 3.10 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | 今日重点推荐： 【平安证券】吉利汽车（0175.HK）*深度报告*顺势而变 聚力向上 *推荐20250213 研究分析师 : 王跟海 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060523080001 研究分析师 : 王德安 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060511010006 核心观点 : 《台州宣言》开启战略聚焦，乘用车规划"两横七纵"促协同。银河：对 齐龙头，2025挑战百万台规模。极氪&领克：强敌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [1] Core Views - Geely is positioned to enter a new growth phase in the smart electric vehicle era, with its technology foundation and brand structure ready for expansion as new models are launched [7][40] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 1 million units by 2025, focusing on the integration of its brands and enhancing its product matrix [7][40] Summary by Sections Strategic Focus - The "Taizhou Declaration" marks a new strategic phase for Geely, emphasizing resource integration and efficient operations across its business segments [10][14] - The company plans to streamline its operations and clarify brand positioning to enhance resource utilization and reduce conflicts [10][14] Galaxy Division - Geely aims to align with industry leaders and achieve significant scale by 2025, focusing on the mainstream new energy market [7][23] - The company has faced challenges in its transition to new energy vehicles, particularly in the hybrid segment, but is now poised for a scale effect with new product launches [23][31] Zeekr & Lynk & Co - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co is aimed at enhancing resource collaboration while maintaining distinct brand identities [19][21] - Both brands are expected to see significant sales growth, entering a critical period for profitability [7][19] Technological Advancements - Geely has developed a comprehensive AI technology system for smart vehicles, with plans to enhance self-driving capabilities by 2025 [7][21] - The company is advancing its hybrid technology, with the new EM-I system expected to compete effectively in the market [32][36] Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The report revises profit forecasts for Geely, projecting net profits of 16.013 billion, 14.046 billion, and 18.838 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][7] - The company is expected to enter a new growth cycle as new models are launched, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [7][40]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading provider of internet financial information services in China, with nearly 30 years of industry experience. Its revenue growth is closely tied to the activity level of the capital market, which is expected to improve due to increased trading volumes [7][9]. - The company has a strong C-end user base and a broad channel network, with four main business segments showing promising growth prospects: value-added telecommunications, advertising promotion, fund sales, and software sales [9][34]. - The company has adopted a technology-driven approach, focusing on AI applications and innovations, which are anticipated to inject new vitality into its performance [9][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a pioneer in the internet financial information service sector since its establishment in 1995, launching the first online securities trading system in China [16][17]. - The founder, Yi Zheng, holds a stable controlling stake of 36.13% as of Q3 2024, ensuring a stable ownership structure [19][20]. Financial Analysis - Revenue growth is significantly influenced by the activity level of the capital market, with historical growth rates of 443% in 2015 and 63% in 2020 during bull markets. The company expects strong revenue performance in 2024 due to increased trading activity [21][23]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3,559 million in 2022, with projections of 4,002 million in 2024 and 5,106 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3% to 13.2% [4][9]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 1,516 million, with a growth rate of 8.1% [4][9]. Business Segments - Value-added telecommunications services are the backbone of the company's revenue, accounting for an average of 46% of total revenue from 2019 to 2023. The company has a large C-end user base, with approximately 625 million registered users as of mid-2024 [34][38]. - Advertising promotion services benefit from a leading C-end user scale and a strong competitive edge in the market, with significant growth potential as market conditions improve [34][9]. - Fund sales are expected to expand due to the accelerated growth of ETFs, while software sales will benefit from increased trading activity and IT investments in the securities industry [34][9]. Technological Innovation - The company has launched the financial dialogue model HithinkGPT, which integrates multi-modal capabilities and is positioned as a leading AI application in the financial sector [8][9]. - The company has committed to a strategy of "ALL in AI" since 2019, focusing on various AI applications across financial advisory, decision-making, and coding [9][8]. Profitability and Valuation - The company maintains a high gross margin, with an average of over 85% in recent years, and a net margin that has been around 50% until recent increases in R&D and sales expenses [26][28]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 2.82, 3.23, and 3.81 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 108.6x, 94.9x, and 80.3x [4][9].

其 他 报 告 2025年02月13日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3346 | 0.85 | 1.63 | | 深证成份指数 | 10709 | 1.43 | 4.13 | | 沪深300指数 | 3920 | 0.95 | 1.98 | | 创业板指数 | 2192 | 1.81 | 5.36 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | 0.03 | 0.23 | | 上证基金指数 | 6968 | 1.05 | 3.10 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 21858 | 2.64 | 4.49 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8058 | 2.75 | 5.44 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 23290 | -0.40 | -0.20 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44369 | -0.50 | ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report analyzes the changes in the public fund industry by examining the capital flow of various market participants and forecasts future market trends [2][3] - Since 2022, the market pricing entities have shifted, with the influence of active public and private funds decreasing while the participation of state-owned entities, insurance institutions, and passive public funds has increased [7][8] - The state-owned entities have played a stabilizing role in the market since 2018, significantly increasing their allocation to ETFs in 2024, with a notable preference for financial stocks and core broad-based ETFs [17][24] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - The overall equity investment scale of state-owned entities has shown growth, with a reported market value of approximately 3.67 trillion yuan as of Q3 2024, reflecting a 24% increase from the end of 2023 [17][20] - The preference of state-owned entities to increase their holdings during market downturns demonstrates their role in counter-cyclical adjustments, as seen in the increase of their share in the A-share market during periods of decline [20][21] - The allocation of state-owned entities is primarily concentrated in financial stocks, with a diversification trend observed since Q3 2015, indicating a shift towards emerging industries [21][23] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - Commercial banks remain the largest participants in the bond market, with a bond allocation market value of approximately 88.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a 7.2% increase from the previous year [12][11] - Insurance institutions have also been increasing their bond allocation, with a reported investment scale of around 15 trillion yuan as of Q3 2024, indicating a strong demand for long-duration interest rate bonds [12][11] - The report highlights the significant increase in bond allocation by other financial institutions, likely influenced by central bank operations aimed at stabilizing market liquidity [12][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote the high-quality development of index investment in the capital market, which is expected to enhance the ETF market and provide more convenient channels for long-term capital entry [3] - With the ongoing decline in risk-free interest rates, the investment returns of money market and bond funds are decreasing, leading to a potential shift of funds towards diversified fixed-income products [3] - The resurgence of active investment strategies will depend on the emergence of new industry trends or changes in the structure of market investors [3]

| 中国平安 PING AN | | --- | | 专业·价值 | 证券研究报告 海外MNC动态跟踪系列（四） 诺华：核药收入突破20亿美元，肾病新药即将迎来监管决策 医药 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 医药团队 分析师： 研究助理： 叶寅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001 邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟 投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002 邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 张梦鸽 一般证券从业资格编号:S1060124120037 邮箱：ZHANGMENGGE752@PINGAN.COM.CN 2025年02月12日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 行业观点 2 事件：1月31日，诺华公布2024业绩，2024年实现营收503.17亿美元，同比增长12% （按固定汇率计算，cc，下同），这一增长主要得益于多款核 心产品的强劲表现。展望2025年，诺华给出指引净销售额预计将实现中位数至高个位数增长，核心营业收入预计将实现高个位数至低两位数增长。 核心产品销售分析：诺华业务专注于四个核心治疗领域：心血管-肾脏-代谢、免疫、神经科 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][35]. Core Insights - Sanofi's revenue for 2024 reached €41.081 billion (approximately $42.313 billion), representing a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, primarily driven by the strong sales of Dupixent and new product launches [4][10]. - The company expects product sales to achieve mid-to-high single-digit percentage growth in 2025, with earnings per share projected to grow in the low double digits [28][31]. Summary by Sections Part 1: 2024 Financial Overview and Key Events - Sanofi's gross profit margin for 2024 was 75.7%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous year, mainly due to the absence of COVID-related revenue [13]. - The company reported a total business net income of €8.912 billion, with an earnings per share (EPS) of €7.12, reflecting a 4.1% increase year-on-year [10][13]. Part 2: Core Product Sales Analysis - Dupixent (dupilumab) generated sales of €13.072 billion (approximately $13.464 billion) in 2024, marking a 23.1% increase and accounting for 32% of Sanofi's total revenue [20][21]. - The vaccine segment achieved revenue of €8.298 billion (approximately $8.547 billion), with a growth rate of 13.5%, significantly boosted by the sales of the RSV vaccine, which reached €1.686 billion (approximately $1.748 billion) in its first full year [21][22]. Part 3: 2025 Pipeline Milestones - Key regulatory submissions expected in the first half of 2025 include Rilzabrutinib for immune thrombocytopenia in Japan and Dupixent for chronic spontaneous urticaria in the US and EU [25][26]. - The company plans to initiate several clinical trials, including Duvakitug for inflammatory bowel disease and SP0202 for pneumococcal disease [26]. Part 4: 2025 Outlook - Sanofi anticipates a mid-to-high single-digit percentage growth in product sales for 2025, with a stock buyback plan of €5 billion aimed at enhancing shareholder value [28][31].

有色金属 2025 年 02 月 12 日 行业动态跟踪 主线明确，金价有望延续上行 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-01 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 平安观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 2024 年底以来金价呈现较强走势，短期驱动来自特朗普胜选带来的市场对其贸易政策的不确定性计价，长期主线仍在于特 朗普政府政策导向可能带来的美元信用走弱，长短期逻辑共振演绎下黄金持续上涨。同时 2024 年 12 月以来，美国贸易政 策不确定性驱动下，COMEX-LBMA 黄金价差走阔，COMEX金溢价带来的套利空间引导实物黄金流入美国。 图表1 COMEX 金及价差走势 资料来源： iFinD ，平安证券研究所 -25.00 -20.00 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 1,500.00 1,700.00 1,900.00 2,100.00 2,300.00 2,500.00 2,700.00 2,900.00 3,100.00 美元/盎司 美元/盎司 ...

有色金属 2025 年 02 月 12 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业动态跟踪 主线明确，金价有望延续上行 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-01 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 平安观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 黄金贸易异动显化关税担忧。2024 年底以来金价呈现较强走势，2024 年 12 月以来， COMEX-LBMA 黄金价差走阔，COMEX 金溢价带来的套利 空间引导实物黄金流入美国。我们认为全球黄金库存结构变化是特朗普政 府执政不确定性预期的进一步显化，对黄金关税的担忧催生了库存变化及 套利价差。当前来看全球贸易局势风险上升趋势仍存，全球 ...

其 他 报 告 2025年02月12日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3318 | -0.12 | 1.63 | | 深证成份指数 | 10558 | -0.69 | 4.13 | | 沪深300指数 | 3883 | -0.46 | 1.98 | | 创业板指数 | 2153 | -1.43 | 5.36 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | 0.01 | 0.23 | | 上证基金指数 | 6895 | -0.54 | 3.10 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 21295 | -1.06 | 4.49 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 7843 | -1.31 | 5.44 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 23384 | 0.57 | -0.20 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44594 | 0 ...