Group 1 - Industry investment rating: Real estate sector rated as "Outperform" [2][33] - Core viewpoint: In April, the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities decreased by 27.3% year-on-year, with a decline of 8.7% in the operating amount of the top 100 real estate companies [3][6] - The land auction market is heating up, and concerns about the gross profit margins and sales performance of quality real estate projects are rising. High-priced projects in cities like Shanghai are expected to enter the market in May, which may boost market confidence if they achieve high sales and profit margins [3][6] Group 2 - Market performance: The average daily transaction volume of new homes in April for 50 key cities was 0.5 million units, a decrease of 69.7% week-on-week, while the average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes in 20 key cities was 0.9 million units, down 59.3% week-on-week [3][6] - Inventory status: The inventory in 16 cities remained stable at 9,164 million square meters, with a de-stocking period of 20.7 months [10][6] - Capital market monitoring: The real estate sector saw a decline of 3.04% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.43%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 39.93 times, placing it in the 96.96 percentile over the past five years [21][6] Group 3 - Individual stock recommendations: Focus on companies with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Greentown China. Also, consider companies with valuation recovery potential like New Town Holdings and Vanke A [3][6] - Policy environment: Multiple regions have announced new housing policies, including increased housing provident fund loan limits [5][6] - Company performance: Poly Development reported a 9% increase in revenue to 54.272 billion yuan in Q1 2025, while other companies like New Town Holdings and Vanke A saw declines in revenue [29][6]

2025 年 5 月 5 日 有色金属与新材料周报 工业金属节前去库至低位，关注节后需求表现 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 25-04 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 有色金属与新材料 | 陈潇榕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060523110001 | | | chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn | 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：美联储 6 月降息预期回落，黄金偏弱震荡。 截至 5.2， COMEX 金主力合约环比下跌 2.49%至 3247.4 美元/盎司。SPDR 黄 金 ETF环比下降 0.2%为 944.26 吨。4 月美国非农就业人数新增 17.7 万人；失业率 4.2%，与前值持平。4 月美国非农数据表现相对稳健， 市场对美联储 6 月降息预期回落，金价现震荡走弱。我们认为特朗普 政策反复带来的市场边际预期调整仍将持续，且随 ...

Group 1: Oil and Gas Industry - The report predicts that international oil prices will be supported in the short term due to OPEC+ compensation cuts, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fluctuate around $60 per barrel in Q2 2025 [3][10][11] - Recent OPEC+ announcements indicate a reduction of 222,000 barrels per day in April and 378,000 barrels per day in May to compensate for previous overproduction, which may help stabilize oil prices despite concerns about oversupply [8][10] - The report highlights that U.S. commercial crude oil is entering a phase of inventory accumulation, limiting refinery operating intentions, while demand growth in Europe and China remains weak [10][11] Group 2: Market Strategy and Economic Outlook - The report notes a recovery in market risk appetite, with U.S. stock indices showing significant gains, driven by positive earnings from major tech companies [4][13] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade negotiations and inflation trends, as these factors will influence market movements and investor sentiment [4][15] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology sector opportunities, consumer sectors supported by policy, and resilient dividend assets amid external disturbances [4][15] Group 3: Domestic Economic Indicators - The report indicates that domestic consumption during the May Day holiday was robust, with significant increases in travel and entertainment spending, suggesting a strengthening consumer base [5][19] - It highlights that industrial profits have shown improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by sectors such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [18][19] - The report discusses the government's efforts to stabilize employment and boost domestic demand through various policy measures, which are expected to support economic growth [18][19] Group 4: Banking Sector - The report states that the overall performance of banks in Q1 2025 was stable, with an average net profit decline of 1.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in operating income [32][33] - It mentions the introduction of new regulations to standardize supply chain finance, aimed at better serving the financing needs of small and medium-sized enterprises [33] - The report advises investors to consider banks as high-dividend investment options, given the current low-risk interest rate environment and the potential for further interest margin compression [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) with a target price of 7.5 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company is focusing on high-end products and a wide customer base, recently launching the L2 urban driving assistance system, Horizon HSD, and announcing collaborations with multiple automotive manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers [3][5]. - The company is positioned as a local solution provider for driving assistance, leveraging its experience in mass production and engineering capabilities to capitalize on industry trends and product cycles [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show significant growth from 1,552 million in 2023 to 10,004 million in 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 71.3% in 2023 and 82.7% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 6,739 million in 2023 to a profit of 453 million in 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [4]. - Gross margin is projected to decline from 70.5% in 2023 to 54.8% in 2027, while net margin is expected to shift from -434.3% to 4.5% over the same period [4]. Product Development and Market Position - The HSD system includes three versions targeting different market segments, with mass production expected to begin in Q3 2025 [5]. - The J6 series chips are designed to meet diverse production needs, with the flagship J6P already in development and set to be featured in new models from Chery [5]. - The company has secured partnerships with 20 automotive brands and is expanding its global market presence through collaborations with international Tier 1 suppliers like Bosch and Denso [6]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of -22 billion, -14 billion, and 5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, indicating a path towards profitability [6]. - The company is expected to experience a significant increase in revenue and a gradual improvement in net profit margins as it scales its operations [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) with a current stock price of 7.5 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company is focusing on high-end products and a broad customer base, recently launching the L2 urban driving assistance system, Horizon HSD, and announcing collaborations with multiple automotive manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers [3][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the high barriers to entry in the smart driving chip sector, leveraging its extensive mass production experience and strong engineering capabilities [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues are expected to grow from 1,552 million in 2023 to 10,004 million by 2027, with a year-over-year growth rate peaking at 82.7% in 2027 [4]. - **Net Profit**: The company is forecasted to have a net profit of -6,739 million in 2023, improving to 453 million by 2027 [4]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to decline from 70.5% in 2023 to 54.8% in 2027 [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to improve from -0.51 in 2023 to 0.03 in 2027 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is advancing its urban driving assistance technology through a combination of hardware and software, with the HSD system set to begin mass production in Q3 2025 [5]. - Horizon Robotics has established partnerships with 20 automotive brands and is expanding its global market presence through collaborations with international Tier 1 suppliers like Bosch and Denso [6]. Financial Ratios - **Revenue Growth Rate**: Expected to be 53.6% in 2024 and 82.7% in 2027 [9]. - **Net Profit Margin**: Projected to improve from -434.3% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2027 [4]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Expected to recover from -22.8% in 2025 to 5.2% in 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company reported strong profit performance in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 234 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.77%, and a net profit of 10 million yuan, up 26.72% year-on-year [4][7] - The company maintains its leading position in the domestic EDA market, with a market share that remains the highest among local EDA firms [7][8] - The company has a robust R&D investment strategy, with R&D expenses amounting to 868 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 71.02% of its revenue [7][8] - The company has established strong relationships with nearly 700 domestic and international clients, enhancing its market expansion and brand recognition [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.222 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.98%, while the net profit was 109 million yuan, a decrease of 45.46% [4][7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching 240 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 281.38% [7] - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable at 93.3% from 2024 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to improve from 9.0% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2027 [10] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.41 yuan, with projections of 0.57 yuan for 2026 and 0.81 yuan for 2027 [8][10] - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in net profit, with forecasts of 222 million yuan in 2025, 309 million yuan in 2026, and 439 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 103.1% and 39.2% respectively [10] Market Position and Strategy - The company has been recognized as a national-level "Little Giant" enterprise, indicating its strong capabilities in the EDA industry [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its technological capabilities in key areas such as storage and automotive electronic design tools, which are approaching international advanced levels [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving a net profit of 29.84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 390.89%, despite a revenue decline of 5.24% to 1.219 billion yuan [3][8]. - The company's digital cost business is experiencing positive breakthroughs, driven by AI empowerment, with significant improvements in product application rates and customer satisfaction [8][9]. - The transition in the company's digital construction business is showing results, with enhanced management quality and the successful establishment of value benchmarks in the digital design sector [9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 89.38%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.39 billion yuan, 6.61 billion yuan, and 6.90 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 493 million yuan, 630 million yuan, and 765 million yuan [7][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.30 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.46 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][11]. Business Segment Insights - The digital cost business is evolving from single-position tools to comprehensive project cost management solutions, with a focus on enhancing data service offerings [8][9]. - The digital construction business is shifting its strategy to prioritize profit and cash flow management, focusing on key production factors and core business management scenarios [9]. - The company has successfully implemented AI functionalities in its cost estimation products, significantly improving efficiency and accuracy [9]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 49.4, 38.7, and 31.8, respectively [10][11]. - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 4.7% in 2025 to 11.1% by 2027 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Yuxin Technology (300674.SZ) with a current stock price of 24.02 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported strong profit performance in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by improved profitability despite a decline in revenue [5][9]. - Yuxin Technology is focusing on AI-enabled financial technology business development, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency in its financial technology services [9][10]. - The company is actively expanding its non-bank institutional business, innovative operations, and overseas business, which are anticipated to be key growth drivers in the future [12]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 525 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.57%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 58.15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.09% [5][9]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 27.77%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year, and the operating expense ratio decreased to 21.84% [9]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.45 billion yuan, 5.30 billion yuan, and 6.42 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.91 yuan [12]. Business Development Summary - Yuxin Technology has established a comprehensive AI application framework, focusing on providing integrated hardware and software solutions for financial institutions [9]. - The company has successfully expanded into non-bank sectors and is developing innovative operational models, including partnerships in retail credit and automotive finance [12]. - In the overseas market, the company secured significant contracts, including a major software project with a multinational bank, marking a milestone in its international business development [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current stock price of 21.77 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 104 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.87 million yuan, a significant increase of 328.63% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 12.56 million yuan, turning around from a loss of 1.35 million yuan in the same period last year [5]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic player in the electrophysiology field, benefiting from rapid expansion in this sector. The report forecasts continued strong growth, with projected revenues of 522 million yuan, 687 million yuan, and 934 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 76 million yuan, 134 million yuan, and 215 million yuan for the same years [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth is expected to be robust, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.5%, 25.5%, 26.4%, 31.5%, and 36.0% from 2023 to 2027 [7]. - The net profit is projected to grow significantly, with year-on-year increases of 91.4%, 815.4%, 46.8%, 75.7%, and 60.0% over the same period [7]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 61.8% to 62.8%, while the net margin is projected to improve from 12.6% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2027 [7][13]. - The company maintains a low debt level, with a debt-to-asset ratio of only 8.1% [8]. Operational Efficiency - The company has effectively controlled its operating expenses, with a sales expense ratio of 26.29% in Q1, down by 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, and a management expense ratio of 10.87%, down by 0.63 percentage points [8]. - Research and development expenses accounted for 19.88% of revenue, reflecting a focus on core projects [8]. Product Development - The company has introduced new products, including a PFA product approved in April 2025, which is expected to enhance its market position [8]. - The company is also working on a self-developed pressure pulse ablation catheter, with a registration application planned for 2025, further expanding its product portfolio [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658.SH), expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The report highlights enhanced cost control and a significant improvement in non-interest income, with a notable recovery in fee-based income [5][7]. - The bank's first-quarter net profit decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, influenced by increased provisioning, while pre-provision profit grew by 6.2% [5][4]. - The bank's total assets reached 17.7 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, with loans and deposits increasing by 9.8% and 9.2%, respectively [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Postal Savings Bank reported operating income of 894 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 252 billion yuan, down 2.6% [4]. - The annualized return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 11.33% [4]. Income and Expenses - The bank's net interest income fell by 3.8% year-on-year, while non-interest income rose by 14.8%, indicating a strong recovery in fee-based income [5][8]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 56.65% in Q1 2025, down from previous periods, reflecting better cost management [8]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly increased to 0.91% as of Q1 2025, with a coverage ratio of 266%, indicating stable risk mitigation capabilities [7][8]. - The report notes that the bank's asset quality remains strong, with a focus on retail banking and a solid customer base in rural and central-western regions [7]. Future Projections - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.89, 0.93, and 0.97 yuan, respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 2.6%, 3.6%, and 4.3% [7][10]. - The bank's total assets are expected to grow steadily, with loan growth rates projected at 9.0% annually [11].