Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [52] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Short-term volatility is increasing, but the long-term outlook remains bullish. As of February 14, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.26% to $2893.7 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 0.6% to 863.1 tons. The geopolitical situation and inflation expectations are key drivers for gold pricing [4] - Industrial Metals: With the rising gold price, attention should be paid to the pricing logic of industrial metals as "hard commodities" [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Index Trends - As of February 14, 2025, the non-ferrous metal index closed at 5133.53 points, down 0.2% from the previous period. The precious metal index remained flat, while the industrial metal index rose by 0.4% [14] 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - The report indicates that the macroeconomic backdrop, including inflation expectations and weakening dollar credit, will support gold prices in the long term [4] 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - As of February 14, SHFE copper futures rose by 1.1% to 78,090 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 376,200 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 53,100 tons. The LME copper inventory was 255,200 tons, with a slight increase. The report suggests that the demand for industrial metals is expected to rise due to a recovery in manufacturing [9][10] 3.2 Aluminum - As of February 14, SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.5% to 20,710 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 763,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decrease. The report highlights that the supply-demand dynamics for aluminum are expected to improve, leading to a potential upward trend in aluminum prices [10] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the copper and aluminum sectors. For copper, the domestic demand is gradually recovering, and the global demand for refined copper is expected to grow. The report suggests关注紫金矿业 (Zijin Mining). For aluminum, the report indicates that the supply-demand imbalance is likely to accelerate, recommending关注天山股份 (Tianshan Shares) [10][49]

证券研究报告 社会服务行业周报 多方政策提振消费促发展， 国际快消巨头在华仍承压 社会服务行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 新消费团队 分析师：胡琼方 S1060524010002（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：huqiongfang722@pingan.com.cn 2025年02月17日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 宏观及行业动态：1）2月10日国务院常务会议研究提振消费有关工作，审议通过《2025年稳外资行动方案》。2）2 月11日商务部等9单位印发的《关于增开银发旅游列车 促进服务消费发展的行动计划》对外公布。3）据国家发改委， 2024年大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新工作取得显著成效，春节假期消费市场活力有效提升。4）亚冬会期间，哈 尔滨"喜迎亚冬会"相关旅游套餐订单量增长超388％。5）电影《哪吒之魔童闹海》票房（含预售）突破100亿。 公司相关动态：1）快消巨头在华表现疲软：①欧莱雅2024年受中国经济复苏乏力影响，北亚地区销售同比下降3.2%。 中国美妆寒冬下，公司高层对2025在华业绩显著增长不抱希望。②联合利华2024年集团营业额为607.61亿欧元，创历 史新高，中国市场营收同比呈 ...

有色金属与新材料 2025 年 2 月 17 日 有色金属与新材料周报 金价中枢攀升下，关注工业金属"硬商品"定价逻辑 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 | 陈潇榕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060523110001 | | | chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn | 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：短期波动加剧，长期仍看上行。 截至 2.14，COMEX 金主力合约环比上涨 0.26%至 2893.7 美元/盎司；SPDR 黄金 ETF减 少 0.6%至 863.1 吨。特朗普于本周签署关税对等备忘录，但细节仍 待落地，关税引发的避险情绪仍存。美国 1 月 CPI 同比增长 3%，超 出前值 2.9%；环比增 0.5%，超出前值的 0.4%，再通胀交易逻辑驱 动仍存。地缘政治方面，美俄谈判带来俄乌冲突结束预 ...

海外宏观 2025 年 2 月 17 日 海外宏观周报 美国通胀热，零售冷 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG934@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | | 范城恺 | 投资咨询资格编号 | S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 海外经济政策。1）美国：鲍威尔国会听证会重申美联储无需急于降 息，希望暂时保持政策的限制性。美联储多位官员发表鹰派言论，受最 新 CPI 数据影响，表示谨慎对待利率调整并密切关注接下来的通胀数 据。特朗普决定征收"对等关税"，具体生效日期待定。美国财长贝森特 表示，将致力于使伊朗的石油出口减少 90%以上。如果特朗普要求，他 将升级对俄罗斯能源的制裁。美国 1月 CPI 超预期走高，核心 CPI环比 加速至 0. ...

Group 1: Medical Device Industry - The global medical device market is steadily growing, with a market size of $552.8 billion in 2022 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% over the past five years [3][10] - The Chinese medical device market reached approximately 843.8 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 15.6%, making it the second-largest market globally after the United States [3][10] - China's medical device expenditure per capita and clinical penetration rate are relatively low, indicating significant future potential for the industry, with expectations of a golden decade of growth ahead [3][10] - The medical device market has a more stable and rapid growth center compared to pharmaceuticals, with innovation in devices being a spiral process rather than disruptive [3][10] Group 2: Financial Data and Economic Outlook - In January 2025, financial data showed a recovery, with new social financing and RMB loans both experiencing year-on-year increases [4][13] - The total social financing increased by 583.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing contributing significantly [4][13] - The structure of loans is positive, with corporate loans and personal housing loans performing better than the same period last year [4][14] - The monetary policy may focus on the marginal changes in the economic fundamentals and external environment, with potential adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates [4][13] Group 3: Economic Monitoring and Consumer Trends - The manufacturing PMI in January showed a larger decline than in previous comparable years, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [5][17] - Consumer spending is expected to be boosted by policies such as the "old-for-new" initiative, which could add approximately 300 billion yuan to consumer spending [5][17] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with significant challenges for property companies in terms of cash flow and debt repayment [5][17] Group 4: Overseas Market Trends - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising by 1.47% and 2.58% respectively, amid easing tariff concerns [20][21] - The Hong Kong stock market led global gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 7.04%, driven by technology and consumer sectors [20][21] - The U.S. inflation data showed persistent inflationary pressures, impacting market expectations for interest rate cuts [22][26]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by CNY 583.3 billion year-on-year, with a total of CNY 7.06 trillion, maintaining a growth rate of 8.0%[6][7] - Government bond financing rose by nearly CNY 400 billion year-on-year, contributing 0.05 percentage points to the social financing growth rate[11] - RMB loans increased by approximately CNY 380 billion year-on-year, contributing 0.02 percentage points to the social financing growth rate[11] Group 2: Loan Performance - New RMB loans in January 2025 totaled about CNY 5.13 trillion, an increase of CNY 210 billion year-on-year, with the loan stock declining by 0.1 percentage points to 7.5%[13][15] - Corporate loans showed positive growth, with short-term loans and bills increasing by over CNY 4.6 trillion and CNY 2.8 trillion respectively, boosting loan growth rates by 0.18 and 0.1 percentage points[15] - Personal housing loans increased by CNY 151.9 billion year-on-year, supported by resilient property sales and reduced early repayment behavior due to lower interest rates[15] Group 3: Monetary Aggregates - The newly revised M1 growth rate in January 2025 was 0.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[16] - M2 growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 7.0%, indicating tighter financial market liquidity and a decline in loan growth[17] - Non-bank financial institution deposits decreased significantly by CNY 1.1 trillion, reflecting reduced investment enthusiasm in the stock market[17] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Insights - In January 2025, government bond net financing was CNY 2.56 trillion higher than the average of the previous three years, indicating proactive fiscal measures[18] - The overall financial resource allocation in January was CNY 6.33 trillion higher than the average of the past three years, reflecting a strong fiscal push[18]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 70,600 billion yuan, an increase of 5,866 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 4,850 billion yuan[1] - New RMB loans amounted to 51,300 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2,100 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations by 8,133 billion yuan[1] - Government bonds issued in January totaled 6,933 billion yuan, up 3,986 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by the issuance of "replacement bonds" and special bonds[2] Group 2: Loan Structure and Performance - The structure of new loans showed a decline in short-term loans for residents, which decreased by 497 billion yuan, while long-term loans for residents increased by 4,935 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1,337 billion yuan[3] - Corporate loans, particularly medium to long-term loans, performed well with an increase of 34,600 billion yuan, up 1,500 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - The overall performance of corporate financing in January was strong, attributed to banks advancing their lending schedules in response to interest margin pressures[3] Group 3: Monetary Indicators - The new M1 money supply growth rate fell from 1.2% in December 2024 to 0.4% in January 2025, a decline of 0.8 percentage points[4] - M2 growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.0%, with a notable increase in resident deposits by 2,990 billion yuan, while corporate deposits fell by 1,350 billion yuan[5] - Non-bank deposits saw a net decrease of 11,000 billion yuan, with a cumulative reduction of 43,000 billion yuan since December 2024, indicating a significant outflow[5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Risks - The bond market is likely in a phase of consolidation, awaiting directional signals from upcoming political meetings[6] - Key risks for February include potential liquidity pressures from central bank operations and the impact of local government bond issuance exceeding planned amounts[7] - The performance of corporate financing in February remains uncertain, particularly after the strong start in January[6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [34] Core Insights - AstraZeneca's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach $54.073 billion, representing a 21% year-on-year growth, driven by product sales growth of 19% and continued growth in collaboration revenues [5][11] - The oncology segment remains the largest contributor, generating $22.353 billion (+24%), followed by the CVRM segment at $12.517 billion (+20%) [5][11] - AstraZeneca aims to launch at least 20 new molecular entities (NMEs) by 2030, targeting total revenues of $80 billion [5][25] Summary by Sections Part 1: 2024 Financial Overview and Key Events - AstraZeneca's 2024 revenue is $54.073 billion, with a core EPS growth of 19% to $8.21 [11] - The company achieved significant sales in various therapeutic areas, with oncology leading at $22.353 billion [11][12] Part 2: Core Product Sales Analysis - The oncology segment's key products include Tagrisso ($6.580 billion, +16%), Imfinzi ($4.717 billion, +21%), and Enhertu ($1.982 billion, +58%) [16] - The CVRM segment's Farxiga generated $7.717 billion (+31%), making it the best-selling product for AstraZeneca [19] Part 3: 2025 Pipeline Milestones - Key regulatory approvals expected in 2025 include Calquence, Imfinzi, Ultomiris, Truqap, and Datroway [23] - Existing products are set for label expansions, including Datroway for lung and breast cancer [23] Part 4: 2025 Financial Outlook - AstraZeneca anticipates revenue growth in the high single digits and core EPS growth in the low double digits for 2025 [25] Part 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Kelun-Biotech, Hengrui Medicine, and Rongchang Biopharma, which are entering the ADC space [29]

其 他 报 告 2025年02月14日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3332 | -0.42 | 1.63 | | 深证成份指数 | 10627 | -0.77 | 4.13 | | 沪深300指数 | 3905 | -0.38 | 1.98 | | 创业板指数 | 2176 | -0.71 | 5.36 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | -0.01 | 0.23 | | 上证基金指数 | 6945 | -0.33 | 3.10 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | 今日重点推荐： 【平安证券】吉利汽车（0175.HK）*深度报告*顺势而变 聚力向上 *推荐20250213 研究分析师 : 王跟海 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060523080001 研究分析师 : 王德安 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060511010006 核心观点 : 《台州宣言》开启战略聚焦，乘用车规划"两横七纵"促协同。银河：对 齐龙头，2025挑战百万台规模。极氪&领克：强敌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [1] Core Views - Geely is positioned to enter a new growth phase in the smart electric vehicle era, with its technology foundation and brand structure ready for expansion as new models are launched [7][40] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 1 million units by 2025, focusing on the integration of its brands and enhancing its product matrix [7][40] Summary by Sections Strategic Focus - The "Taizhou Declaration" marks a new strategic phase for Geely, emphasizing resource integration and efficient operations across its business segments [10][14] - The company plans to streamline its operations and clarify brand positioning to enhance resource utilization and reduce conflicts [10][14] Galaxy Division - Geely aims to align with industry leaders and achieve significant scale by 2025, focusing on the mainstream new energy market [7][23] - The company has faced challenges in its transition to new energy vehicles, particularly in the hybrid segment, but is now poised for a scale effect with new product launches [23][31] Zeekr & Lynk & Co - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co is aimed at enhancing resource collaboration while maintaining distinct brand identities [19][21] - Both brands are expected to see significant sales growth, entering a critical period for profitability [7][19] Technological Advancements - Geely has developed a comprehensive AI technology system for smart vehicles, with plans to enhance self-driving capabilities by 2025 [7][21] - The company is advancing its hybrid technology, with the new EM-I system expected to compete effectively in the market [32][36] Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The report revises profit forecasts for Geely, projecting net profits of 16.013 billion, 14.046 billion, and 18.838 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][7] - The company is expected to enter a new growth cycle as new models are launched, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [7][40]