Group 1 - Industry investment rating: Buy [3] - Core viewpoint: Demand growth outpaces supply, leading to significant increases in passenger load factors [2][8] - The industry saw a year-on-year improvement in supply and demand in December, with total supply and demand for five listed airlines improving by 7.6% and 13.7% respectively compared to the previous year [8] Group 2 - Domestic and international routes have shown strong recovery, with domestic supply and demand at 109.6% and 111.9% of 2019 levels respectively [8] - International routes experienced a substantial increase in supply and demand, with year-on-year growth of 34.7% and 47.2%, leading to a load factor increase of 6.9 percentage points [8] - The report highlights the robust recovery of major airlines, with significant improvements in operational data for airlines like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines [8] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the long-term supply-demand dynamics in the industry will continue to improve, supported by government initiatives to boost tourism and simplified entry-exit policies [8] - The report recommends investment in specific airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, while also monitoring Hainan Airlines and Huaxia Airlines [8] - The expected earnings of airlines are projected to rise, indicating potential investment opportunities in the aviation sector [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The gas turbine market is expected to experience significant growth due to the increasing demand from overseas data centers, particularly in North America, where gas turbines are primarily used as the main power source [5][39] - The global market for gas turbines is estimated to be around 1200-1500 billion CNY, with annual sales of approximately 40-50 GW [30] - The construction of data centers by major cloud companies is projected to lead to a rapid increase in gas turbine demand, with a potential market elasticity of nearly 50% [5][61] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gas Turbines as Key Components in AI Infrastructure - Gas turbines are recognized as essential in the energy sector, offering advantages such as low pollution, high thermal efficiency, and quick startup times [16] - The global gas turbine market is dominated by power generation (67%), oil and gas (25%), and other industrial applications (8%) [30] Section 2: Growth of Overseas Data Centers - Major cloud companies have announced capital expenditures totaling 285.1 billion USD for data centers, with 198.5 billion USD allocated for the U.S. [39][41] - The expected construction capacity for data centers in the Americas is projected to reach 25 GW [5] Section 3: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The gas turbine market is anticipated to see a 50% increase in annual orders by 2026, driven by the growth of data centers [5][56] - Domestic suppliers are positioned to benefit from the demand for gas turbine components, with companies like Yingliu Co., Linde Co., and Haomai Technology highlighted as key players [5] Section 4: Financial Analysis of Key Companies - Yingliu Co. (603308.SH) has a target price of 30.00 CNY per share, with a "Buy" rating [6] - Linde Co. (605060.SH) has a target price of 19.19 CNY per share, also rated as "Buy" [6] - Haomai Technology (002595.SZ) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 47.38 CNY per share [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jinkong Coal (601001 SH) with a target price of 14 90 yuan and a current price of 12 79 yuan [3] Core Viewpoints - Jinkong Coal has initiated the acquisition of a coal exploration right with a designed capacity of 10 million tons per year marking a significant step in the integration of group assets [1][8] - The company has sufficient cash on hand to complete the acquisition with net cash of 12 5 billion yuan after deducting interest-bearing liabilities of 3 48 billion yuan [8] - Upon completion and operation of the Panjiayao Mine the company's controlled coal production capacity is expected to increase by 29% [8] - The company is a small but high-quality coal platform under the Jinneng Holding Group with strong profitability and potential for capacity growth benefiting from long-term group asset integration [8] - The company has no large ongoing projects resulting in low capital expenditure pressure and a gradually increasing dividend payout ratio (14 4% in 2021 34 6% in 2022 and 40 0% in 2023) [8] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to decline slightly from 15 34 billion yuan in 2023 to 14 53 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of -2 9% in 2025 [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 3 30 billion yuan in 2023 to 2 77 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of -3 0% in 2025 [7] - EPS is forecasted to be 1 71 yuan in 2024 1 66 yuan in 2025 and 1 67 yuan in 2026 [7] - The P/E ratio is expected to rise from 6 25 in 2023 to 7 73 in 2025 [7] - ROE is projected to decline from 19 5% in 2023 to 13 7% in 2025 [7] Asset and Liability Overview - The company's total assets are expected to increase from 37 68 billion yuan in 2023 to 45 28 billion yuan in 2026 [10] - Net cash from operating activities is projected to be 4 67 billion yuan in 2024 and 4 87 billion yuan in 2026 [10] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 35 3% in 2023 to 28 6% in 2026 indicating improved financial health [12] Valuation and Dividend Yield - Based on a 9x P/E ratio for 2025 the company's fair value is estimated at 14 90 yuan per share [8] - Assuming a 40% dividend payout ratio for 2024 the current market value corresponds to a dividend yield of 5 3% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 380.00 and a fair value of HKD 478.52 [5][20]. Core Views - The report anticipates a strong performance in gaming, resilient advertising, and a recovery in financial services for Tencent in Q4 2024. The expected revenue for Q4 2024 is RMB 169.1 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 9% [9][20]. - The gaming revenue is projected to accelerate, with expectations of reaching RMB 46.6 billion in Q4 2024, a 14% year-over-year increase. Domestic gaming is expected to grow by 16% while overseas gaming revenue is projected to increase by 10% [9][20]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on Tencent's core business driven by product innovation and social media traffic, suggesting that the company can gradually release its commercialization potential through innovations like WeChat stores [9][20]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for Tencent from 2022 to 2026, with revenue expected to grow from RMB 5,546 million in 2022 to RMB 7,685 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.8% [4][20]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1,149 million in 2022 to RMB 2,775 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 45.3% in 2024 [4][20]. Financial Metrics - The report highlights key financial metrics, including an expected EPS of RMB 24.10 in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 14.5, and a projected ROE of 22.4% [4][20]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to grow from RMB 1,612 million in 2022 to RMB 3,379 million in 2026, indicating a strong operational performance [4][20]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the core business value at HKD 404 billion and the investment business value at HKD 37.23 billion, leading to a total fair value of HKD 478.52 per share [17][20]. - The gaming business is valued at HKD 189.74 per share based on an 18x P/E ratio, while the advertising business is valued at HKD 104.73 per share using a 27x P/E ratio [17][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 19.80 CNY and a fair value of 29.37 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% for 2024, although this is a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.1% year-on-year, showing a recovery of 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarters [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from good growth in interest-earning assets, effective control of net interest margin decline, narrowing declines in fee income, stable investment income growth, and reasonable control of expenses [8]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.07%, unchanged from the previous year, and a provision coverage ratio of 237.78%, which has increased by 4.24 percentage points from the previous quarter [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets and loans increased by 3.5% and 5.1% year-on-year, respectively. The company is expected to allocate a significant amount to investment-type assets in Q4 2024, with an estimated total asset increase of approximately 203.3 billion CNY [8]. - The company’s total liabilities and deposits grew by 2.9% and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, with deposits contributing significantly to the increase [8]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit growth is projected to be 1.28% and 1.73% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 3.56 CNY and 3.62 CNY [8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.56X and 5.46X for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.50X and 0.47X for the same years [8]. Asset Quality - The company’s non-performing loan balance is projected to increase to 61.4 billion CNY by 2026, with a stable non-performing loan ratio expected to remain around 1.07% [8]. - The provision for loan losses is expected to increase, enhancing the company's risk mitigation capabilities [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 9.21 CNY and a fair value of 13.37 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 4.395 billion CNY, down 3.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.02% to 307 million CNY [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 shows a positive turning point, with revenue of 1.472 billion CNY, up 1.63% year-on-year, and net profit of 145 million CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 35.72% [3]. - The company is expected to achieve faster growth in 2025 due to favorable domestic policies, brand momentum, and ongoing channel innovations [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: 3.899 billion CNY - 2023: 4.545 billion CNY - 2024E: 4.395 billion CNY - 2025E: 4.868 billion CNY - 2026E: 5.392 billion CNY - **Net Profit**: - 2022: 71 million CNY - 2023: 298 million CNY - 2024E: 307 million CNY - 2025E: 357 million CNY - 2026E: 435 million CNY - **EPS**: - 2022: 0.21 CNY - 2023: 0.86 CNY - 2024E: 0.88 CNY - 2025E: 1.03 CNY - 2026E: 1.25 CNY [2][3][4]. Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from a reversal in domestic policy and an improving consumer environment, alongside the strengthening of its online and offline channels [3]. - The TeenieWeenie brand is gaining traction, and the VGRASS brand reform is showing positive results, while the Yuanxian brand is expected to maintain high growth due to its cultural influence [3]. - The company plans to issue shares to its controlling shareholder, indicating confidence in future growth [3].

[Table_Page] 深度分析|食品饮料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 出海系列 初探东南亚调味品市场 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-15 | [Ta 相对市场表现 ble_PicQuote] -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 食品饮料 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | 021-38003552 | | furong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 廖承帅 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524070009 | | 021-38003816 | | liaochengshuai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 钱浩 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 | | SFC CE No. BND274 | | 021-380 ...

[Table_Title] 多元金融行业 长尾信贷 AI 应用专题：海外借鉴与国内趋势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： chenfu@gf.com.cn [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 多元金融行业:支付行业专题 | 2024-08-28 | | --- | --- | | 报告：境内及出海行业格局 | | | 多元金融行业:五项资本市场 | 2024-04-21 | | 对港合作措施，有望巩固香 | | | 港国际金融中心地位 | | [联系人： Table_Contacts]李怡华 021-38003811 liyihua@gf.com.cn 1 / 26 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 [Table_Page] 深度分析|多元金融 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-15 | 相对市场表现 [Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 17.88 CNY and a reasonable value of 20.94 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in performance, with a forecasted net profit for 2024 ranging from 198 to 225 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 91.76% to 117.91% [7]. - The revenue from pet disposable hygiene products is projected to grow significantly, driven by an increase in market penetration and customer expansion [8]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 20% for 2024-2026, supported by favorable raw material prices and effective cost management [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from 1,337 million CNY in 2023 to 1,779 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 33% [6]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 103 million CNY in 2023 to 211 million CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 104.2% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.56 CNY in 2023 to 1.14 CNY in 2024 [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from pet disposable hygiene products is expected to grow from 1,253 million CNY in 2023 to 1,678 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 34% [9]. - The overall revenue for the company is projected to reach 1,779 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [9]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company is assigned a reasonable valuation of 15x PE for 2025, leading to a target price of 20.94 CNY per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 22.11 CNY and a fair value of 26.02 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a change in control, with the major shareholder, China Four Union Instrument Group, transferring 19.25% of its shares to China National Machinery Industry Corporation at a premium of 10% over the market price, aimed at optimizing state capital layout [7]. - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 7.93 billion CNY, 8.91 billion CNY, and 10.36 billion CNY respectively, and assigns a 15x PE valuation for 2025, leading to a fair value estimate of 26.02 CNY per share [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company's revenue is projected to grow from 6,370 million CNY in 2022 to 10,212 million CNY by 2026, with growth rates of 16.1% in 2022, 16.3% in 2023, and 14.3% in both 2025 and 2026 [2][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to increase from 579 million CNY in 2022 to 1,036 million CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 7.5% in 2022 and 28.4% in 2023 [2][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to rise from 1.47 CNY in 2022 to 2.02 CNY in 2026 [2][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The report indicates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 21.29 in 2022 to 10.96 in 2026, suggesting an improving valuation over time [2][10]. Balance Sheet Overview - **Total Assets**: Expected to grow from 7,456 million CNY in 2022 to 11,549 million CNY by 2026 [8]. - **Total Liabilities**: Projected to increase from 4,034 million CNY in 2022 to 5,854 million CNY in 2026 [8]. - **Shareholder Equity**: Anticipated to rise from 3,409 million CNY in 2022 to 5,670 million CNY in 2026 [8]. Cash Flow Analysis - **Operating Cash Flow**: Expected to increase from 569 million CNY in 2022 to 924 million CNY in 2026 [8]. - **Net Cash Increase**: The net cash increase is projected to be negative in 2022 at -510 million CNY, turning positive in subsequent years, reaching 601 million CNY by 2026 [8].