Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential of HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) technology to meet the memory capacity requirements of AI large models, which have been increasing due to the growth in model parameters and context lengths [13][20] - Companies with a database technology foundation are well-positioned to develop data infrastructure software based on HBF, with major players including Huawei and Alibaba, as well as independent firms like StarRing Technology and PingCAP [29][32] - The maturity of HBF technology is expected to drive the application of related data infrastructure software, particularly in AI inference tasks [33] Summary by Sections HBF Technology Development - HBF is anticipated to become the optimal solution for meeting the memory capacity demands of AI large models, as current HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) solutions are insufficient [20][23] - The first batch of HBF samples is expected to be delivered in the second half of 2026, with integrated AI inference hardware projected for early 2027 [23] Data Infrastructure Software Opportunities - The report identifies a growing need for data processing software that can handle the high memory requirements of various AI models, particularly large language models and video generation models [28][30] - Companies with existing database technology capabilities are likely to develop software optimized for HBF, enhancing their competitive edge in the market [29][32] Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - StarRing Technology (688031.SH) has a current price of CNY 97.99 with a rating of "Increase" [8] - Cambricon (688256.SH) is rated "Buy" with a target value of CNY 1480.92, reflecting strong growth potential [8] - Inspur Information (000977.SZ) is rated "Increase" with a current price of CNY 62.85 [8] - Unisplendour (000938.SZ) is rated "Buy" with a target value of CNY 39.18 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 18.54 CNY and a fair value of 22.26 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of cleanroom technology services and is actively expanding its cloud and data services, which are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for government and enterprise cloud adoption [2][6]. - The company has undergone several asset restructurings, focusing on digital information services and industrial services, with significant ownership by China Electronics [12][15]. - The cleanroom market is projected to grow significantly, with the company positioned to benefit from the expansion of the domestic electronics industry [6][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 1987 and has transformed through multiple acquisitions, including the purchase of China System in 2020, which shifted its focus to information and industrial services [12][15]. - As of Q3 2025, China Electronics holds a 42.25% stake in the company, which is a key player in the cleanroom engineering sector [15][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% from 2021 to 2024, increasing from 427.04 million CNY to 673.89 million CNY [22][24]. - The company reported a net profit of 3.30 million CNY in 2023, with expectations of maintaining similar levels in 2024 [22][24]. - The gross profit margin for the high-tech industrial engineering service segment has been stable, while the digital and information services segment has seen fluctuations [19][22]. Cloud and Data Services Market - The cloud services market is experiencing high growth, driven by government policies and the increasing need for digital transformation across various sectors [37][39]. - The company focuses on three main product lines within its cloud services: cloud computing and storage, data innovation, and digital government services [6][35]. - The government has set ambitious targets for the digital economy, which is expected to further boost the demand for cloud services [37][39]. Cleanroom Engineering Services - The cleanroom market is projected to reach 1,157 billion CNY in the electronics sector by 2025, with the company being a leading player in this space [6][19]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients in the semiconductor industry, enhancing its competitive position [6][19]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 238 million CNY, 278 million CNY, and 307 million CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][6]. - The company is valued at 253 billion CNY based on segment valuations, leading to a fair value estimate of 22.26 CNY per share [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of 3.88 CNY and a reasonable value of 4.36 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company has completed the sale of its container leasing business, resulting in an estimated cash inflow of approximately 12 billion CNY, which will help accelerate the repayment of high-interest debt and reduce financial expenses [9]. - Following the divestiture, the company will focus solely on its aircraft leasing business, positioning it to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the global supply-demand imbalance in aircraft [9]. - The aircraft leasing fleet is globally leading, with a total of 1,159 aircraft as of Q3 2025, including 601 owned and 522 on order [9]. - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in profit margins due to reduced financial costs and a more streamlined business model [9]. - The earnings forecast for 2025 includes a projected net profit of -135 million CNY, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [8][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 33,675 million CNY in 2023 to 49,115 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27.8% [8]. - EBITDA is expected to decline to 17,047 million CNY in 2025, with a subsequent recovery [8]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to be -135 million CNY in 2025, with a significant rebound anticipated in 2026 [8]. - The report estimates a book value per share (BVPS) of 4.84 CNY for 2025, applying a reasonable valuation of 0.9x price-to-book (PB) ratio [9].

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. Labor Department released combined non-farm employment data for October and November, with November showing an increase of 64,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[5]. - October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, primarily due to a reduction of 162,000 jobs in the federal government sector[6]. - Private sector employment increased by 69,000 in November and 52,000 in October, with a three-month moving average of 75,000[6]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose from 4.44% in October to 4.56% in November, marking the highest level since September 2021[7]. - The labor force participation rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[7]. - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16-19 rose significantly from 13.2% to 16.3%, indicating challenges for young job seekers[8]. Group 3: Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly wages increased by 3.75% year-over-year in October and 3.51% in November, with month-over-month increases of 0.44% and 0.14%, respectively[9]. - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.37% in October and 4.34% in November, reflecting overall labor income trends[12]. - Weekly hours worked averaged 34.2 hours in October and 34.3 hours in November, indicating a slight increase in overtime trends[12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The data suggests a mixed employment landscape, with structural demand in healthcare and social services, while public sector and manufacturing remain weak[7]. - The JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, indicating resilient job demand despite rising unemployment[14]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026 increased to 62.7% from 42.4% following the employment data release[15].

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 证券研究报告 如何理解一并公布的 10 月和 11 月非农数据 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 美国劳工部 12 月 16 日公布非农就业数据1。由于此前的政府停摆，本次非农数据属于 10 月和 11 月一并发布。 但住户调查（Household Survey）数据（包括失业率等）将缺失 10 月数据，且不会再补采。 美国劳工部在 12 月 16 日集中公布 10 月与 11 月的就业数据，其中包括 11 月的住户调查（Household Survey） 结果（如失业率、劳动参与率等），但由于此前政府停摆，10 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the transportation sector is facing significant profit impacts in 2025, with a general decline in ROE and net profit year-on-year. The market is currently pricing in a disconnection between stock prices and 2025 performance trends, highlighting a situation where profit and stock price bottoms are evident, but valuations appear high [3]. Transportation Sector Analysis - The report suggests that in 2026, the focus should be on identifying alpha within beta stocks, as different sub-industries will experience varying recovery paces. Key investment strategies include: 1. Domestic demand recovery is expected to precede external demand, with a low base in 2026 being a significant factor [3]. 2. Upstream sectors are anticipated to recover before downstream sectors, with initial signs of price and inventory recovery in Q3 2025 [3]. 3. Price increases are expected to precede volume growth, with supply constraints influencing the cyclical recovery across different sectors [3]. Macro Economic Outlook - The report provides a macroeconomic outlook for 2026, indicating that while U.S. broad market indices are relatively expensive, they are not at extreme levels. The Chinese stock market has potential for nominal growth recovery, which could lead to a re-evaluation of A-share valuations [3]. - The report also highlights that the current market breadth is healthy, suggesting a broad-based potential for upward movement in indices such as the S&P 500 and the CSI 300 [3].

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 黄金：不确定性时代的确定性资产 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 近期黄金走势：8 月以来伦敦金现货最高冲破 4380 美元/盎司，衍生品 净多头+ETF 天量流入是本轮行情的主要驱动因素。金价 10 月深度回 调后反弹，短期市场情绪已经回暖：（1）衍生品净多头+ETF 流入格局 不变；（2）黄金期权隐含波动率已从前期高位回落至近 6 个月均值附 近，超涨压力基本释放；（3）地缘政治格局呈现"局部缓和与多点升温 交织"特征，避险情绪小幅升温。 ⚫ 黄金价格回调但仍长期看多黄金的三大原因： 1. 宏观叙事：债务危机或将重塑全球秩序。疫情以来，美国的债务和基 础财政赤字持续扩张，联邦政府债务水平升至历史最高，且持有者更加 分散。美国双赤字的扩大迫使其向外转嫁危机，近年全球经济政策不确 定性和地缘政治风险明显抬头。若债务问题未解决，黄金和科技在中长 期将持续获得上涨动力。 2. 基本面：实际利率下降将边际支撑金价。2022 年后真实利率和金价 的负相关性有所弱化，但并非消失 ...

Group 1: Asset Performance Overview - In 2025, major asset classes showed extreme differentiation under the "narrative trading" theme, with gold leading the performance, achieving a year-to-date (YTD) return of over 120%[4] - The YTD ranking of major assets as of December 12, 2025, was gold > ChiNext Index > STAR 50 > LME copper futures > European stocks > Hang Seng Index > Japanese stocks > MSCI Emerging Markets > NASDAQ > CSI 300 > global bonds > South China Agricultural Index > China bonds > USD > crude oil > long volatility strategy[4] - The "entrepreneurial board index + LME copper futures + London gold" combination achieved a YTD return of 130.3%, while the "CSI 300 + USD index + Brent crude oil futures" returned only -8.3%, resulting in a performance gap of 138.6%, the highest since 2013[5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The asset rotation speed in 2025 deviated from historical seasonal patterns, with significant fluctuations observed, particularly a sharp decline from July to September, contrasting with typical trends[6] - A simple multi-asset annual rebalancing strategy yielded a cumulative return of 17.5% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of positive returns, but lagged behind most stock market performances[6] - The classic asset rotation framework, which correlates asset rotation with economic cycles, was challenged in 2025 due to significant macroeconomic changes, suggesting a shift towards a "narrative + macro factor" pricing model for 2026[9] Group 3: Liquidity and Correlation Insights - Short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies asset price movements, indicating a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading[10] - The CSAD (Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation) metric indicated a strong correlation between narrative trading intensity and asset prices, with a notable decrease in asset correlation observed in late 2025[11] - The correlation between domestic equities and bonds in China remained negative throughout 2025, with a notable reduction in volatility differences, suggesting a potential shift towards equilibrium in the future[19] Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Indicators - The 2026 outlook suggests a potential "mirror" relationship with 2025, with expectations of a gradual loosening of narrative trading and a return to lower correlation among major assets[8] - The anticipated nominal GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 4.7% to 5.2%, with a focus on consumption recovery and fixed asset investment stabilization[32] - The performance of major asset classes in 2026 is expected to be influenced by inflation dynamics, with a ranking of asset probabilities indicating that Hong Kong stocks > A-shares > Renminbi > commodities > black metals > US stocks > China bonds > US bonds > gold > USD[30]

- The report analyzes the performance of Alpha factors in various market segments, including the entire market, CSI 300, CSI A500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and the ChiNext board, with monthly and weekly rebalancing[5] - The deep learning factor agru_dailyquote shows RankIC averages of 5.18%, 12.44%, 14.42%, and 13.94% over the past week, month, year, and historically, respectively, with a historical win rate of 91.63%[5] - The DL_1 factor shows RankIC averages of 4.00%, 19.68%, 16.48%, and 14.08% over the past week, month, year, and historically, respectively, with a historical win rate of 87.97%[5] - The fimage factor shows RankIC averages of -0.17%, 3.95%, 3.92%, and 5.17% over the past week, month, year, and historically, respectively, with a historical win rate of 78.11%[5] - The integrated_bigsmall_longshort factor, a Level-2 high-frequency factor, shows RankIC averages of -4.74%, 15.18%, 9.78%, and 11.10% over the past week, month, year, and historically, respectively, with a historical win rate of 75.86%[5] - The Amihud_illiq factor, a minute-frequency factor, shows RankIC averages of -3.21%, 16.88%, 13.34%, and 11.17% over the past week, month, year, and historically, respectively, with a historical win rate of 74.95%[5] - The report includes detailed performance analysis of 29 Level-2 high-frequency factors and 55 minute-frequency factors[5] - The deep learning factor agru_dailyquote shows an excess return of 9.01% in the CSI 300 index, 9.68% in the CSI A500 index, 5.82% in the CSI 500 index, 11.18% in the CSI 800 index, 10.75% in the CSI 1000 index, and 6.58% in the ChiNext index, with maximum drawdowns of 1.96%, 1.23%, 3.47%, 1.49%, 1.58%, and 1.95%, respectively, for the year-to-date period[5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating to the company, with a current price of CNY 67.08 and HKD 65.25, and a reasonable value of CNY 85.17 and HKD 84.23 [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in the "transformational era" and a leader in "asset-liability linkage," with significant growth potential in the bancassurance channel, which is expected to drive value growth [8][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the bancassurance channel, with a new business value (NBV) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.6% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing the overall market [21][22]. - The company's investment strategy focuses on high dividend yields and stable long-term returns, with a net investment return rate superior to its peers [8][10]. Summary by Sections Liability Side: "Pioneer of the Transformational Era" - The company has consistently led changes in the liability side of the insurance industry, achieving a new business premium CAGR of 7.5% from 2010 to 2024, outperforming peers [15]. - The bancassurance channel is expected to become a core growth driver, with significant room for expansion as the company currently holds the lowest market share among peers in this segment [21][22]. Asset Side: "Leader in Asset Management" - The company has strategically increased its bond allocation since 2018, ensuring a good match between assets and liabilities [8][10]. - The focus on high dividend strategies has resulted in a net investment return rate that is among the highest in the industry, with an average dividend return rate of 5.8% over the past three years [8][10]. Operational Quality: Real Estate Exposure and Sector Performance - The company's real estate exposure has been reduced to 3.3% of its insurance funds, with sufficient provisions for asset impairments [8][10]. - The profitability of both life and property insurance segments is on the rise, supported by improved performance in asset management and technology sectors [8][10]. Valuation: Dividend Yield and Market Position - The company offers a favorable dividend yield, with stable operational profit growth and high dividends, while its current valuation is lower than that of its peers [8][10]. - The report notes that public fund holdings in the company are significantly lower than the benchmark index, indicating potential for reallocation [8][10]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 8.91, CNY 9.85, and CNY 10.55 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a reasonable valuation based on the embedded value method [8][10].