[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公用事业行业深度跟踪 风光贡献全部发电增量，关注板块低配高股息 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-21 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 12/24 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 公用事业 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭鹏 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 | | SFC CE No. BNX688 | | 021-38003655 | | guopeng@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 许子怡 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524010002 | | 021-38003618 | | xuziyi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郝兆升 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524070001 | | 0755-82557403 | | haozhaosheng@ ...

Group 1 - The core narrative for A-shares in 2025 is "asymmetric upside returns and limited downside risks," supported by regulatory measures and insurance capital to curb index declines, while domestic deposit migration and overseas dollar inflows create upward potential for indices [10][11][18] - In 2025, the inflow of external funds remains in the early stages, with limited participation from residents and foreign investors, despite a recovery in risk appetite [10][11][13] - The report highlights that the investment willingness of urban depositors has improved since Q3 2024, but remains at low absolute levels, indicating a gradual recovery in risk appetite [10][25][40] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report anticipates a continuation of the supportive role of insurance capital and regulation, with a more pronounced migration of deposits, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, and increased foreign investment [10][36] - Factors supporting resident capital inflow include reduced market volatility due to insurance and regulatory backing, easing pressure on household balance sheets, and a higher degree of liquidity in deposits [10][36][40] - The report notes that the current environment offers limited high-yield alternatives to stocks, enhancing the attractiveness of the equity market [10][58] Group 3 - The report indicates that the migration of deposits among high-net-worth individuals is accelerating, with significant new registrations in private equity funds, reaching 386 billion yuan from January to October 2025 [10][61] - External factors include a potential increase in global capital allocation to non-US assets due to downward pressure on the dollar, alongside expectations of improving fundamentals in A-shares [10][68] - The report emphasizes that A-shares are at a turning point in the profit cycle, with expectations for fundamental improvements in 2026, which could attract more foreign capital [10][75][82]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the computer industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the usage of the Doubao large model, with daily token usage surpassing 50 trillion, reflecting a 417-fold increase since its launch [14][47]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from business model innovation to hard technology capabilities, emphasizing the importance of foundational research and engineering in AI development [5]. - The integration of AI capabilities into various applications, such as travel planning and local services, is expected to benefit companies involved in AI chips, servers, and foundational software tools [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Doubao Large Model Token Growth - The Doubao large model's daily token usage has exceeded 50 trillion, marking a significant increase from 30 trillion in September 2025, with a monthly growth rate of 22% [14][15]. - The model's commercial viability is improving as the cost of reasoning decreases, with the latest version, Doubao 1.8, optimizing for multi-modal tasks and reducing redundant computational costs [15][20]. 2. Performance Enhancements of Doubao Large Model - The Doubao 1.8 model has shown substantial improvements in multi-modal understanding and task execution, outperforming competitors like Qwen3 in various metrics [27][32]. - New models such as Seedance 1.5 Pro and Seedream 4.5 have been introduced, enhancing capabilities in video generation and image creation, respectively [33][43]. 3. Integration of Qianwen APP with Gaode - The Qianwen APP has integrated with Gaode, enabling it to transition from understanding user intent to executing real-world services, significantly enhancing user experience in travel and local services [56][58]. - The app's public testing has resulted in rapid user adoption, with over 3 million active users within 23 days of launch [53]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Companies expected to benefit from the increase in reasoning-side computational power include AI chip and server firms like Cambricon, Inspur, and Unisoc, as well as foundational software companies like Fourth Paradigm and StarRing Technology [24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 19.00 and a fair value of HKD 20.22 [5]. Core Insights - The launch of the Honor Gold Standard product series and the new "Dragon Store" concept is expected to drive brand performance growth. The Dragon Store aims to create a space that integrates product experience, emotional resonance, and cultural exchange, while the Honor Gold Standard series focuses on multifunctional and versatile designs for various scenarios [9]. - The company anticipates that the synergy between the Honor Gold Standard series and the Dragon Store will contribute to revenue growth in 2026, targeting high-quality consumer segments with diverse needs [9]. - Profit forecasts indicate that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 2.472 billion in 2025, CNY 2.634 billion in 2026, and CNY 2.828 billion in 2027, with a reference PE of 18 times for 2026 [9]. Financial Summary - Main revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: CNY 27,598 million - 2024: CNY 28,676 million - 2025: CNY 28,986 million - 2026: CNY 30,325 million - 2027: CNY 32,871 million - The growth rates for main revenue are projected at 7.0% for 2023, 3.9% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025, 4.6% for 2026, and 8.4% for 2027 [4]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to be CNY 5,814 million in 2023, declining to CNY 5,631 million in 2025, and then increasing to CNY 6,736 million by 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline from CNY 3,187 million in 2023 to CNY 2,472 million in 2025, before recovering to CNY 2,828 million in 2027 [4]. - The report also highlights key financial ratios, including a projected ROE of 9.0% in 2025 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.4 in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) with a current price of 605.00 HKD and a fair value of 754.73 HKD [10]. Core Insights - Tencent Cloud is leveraging its domestic advantages to expand its overseas business, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a focus on stable energy and power supply for data centers [10][12]. - The company has developed a comprehensive AI strategy, integrating AI into its business model and enhancing talent acquisition, which is expected to accelerate growth [10][16]. - The financial forecast remains unchanged, with projected revenues of 7,524 billion RMB and 8,278 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 14.0% and 10.0% [10][25]. Financial Projections - Revenue (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 6,090 - 2024A: 6,603 - 2025E: 7,524 - 2026E: 8,278 - 2027E: 8,915 - EBITDA (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 2,119 - 2024A: 2,941 - 2025E: 3,022 - 2026E: 3,528 - 2027E: 3,991 - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 1,577 - 2024A: 2,227 - 2025E: 2,586 - 2026E: 2,953 - 2027E: 3,295 - EPS (in RMB/share): - 2023A: 16.32 - 2024A: 23.51 - 2025E: 28.32 - 2026E: 32.34 - 2027E: 36.09 - P/E Ratio: - 2023A: 16.3 - 2024A: 16.1 - 2025E: 19.4 - 2026E: 17.0 - 2027E: 15.2 - ROE (%): - 2023A: 19.5% - 2024A: 22.9% - 2025E: 22.4% - 2026E: 21.7% - 2027E: 20.8% [4][10]. Tencent Cloud Expansion - Tencent Cloud has established infrastructure in 22 physical regions and 64 availability zones globally, with over 3,200 acceleration nodes, focusing on Southeast Asia and the Middle East for future growth [12][10]. - The strategy for acquiring core customers in Southeast Asia includes deepening relationships with local leading enterprises and serving Chinese companies expanding overseas [13][10]. AI Integration - Tencent's AI strategy encompasses infrastructure, platform tools, and application layers, with significant investments in talent acquisition to enhance AI capabilities [16][10]. - AI is expected to drive growth in advertising and gaming sectors, with improvements in user experience and operational efficiency [17][10].

Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - The release of the November CPI report in the U.S. has been delayed from December 10 to December 18 due to the government shutdown, affecting data collection from October 1 to November 12[3] - The absence of October data complicates trend analysis, as the BLS confirmed that key CPI components relying on manual collection were not gathered during the shutdown[4] - The report's quality is questioned due to a reduced sample size, with data collection expected to be around 75% of normal levels, leading to increased volatility and statistical errors[4] Group 2: Methodological Concerns - The CPI calculation will use a carry-forward methodology, assuming zero price changes for items not sampled in October, which may lead to a technical downward bias in the data[5] - The rental data, which has the largest weight in CPI, may only reflect half of the normal increase due to the lack of October data, potentially causing a rebound in April when the data is resampled[8] - The sampling period coincided with holiday promotions, likely leading to an underestimation of prices, particularly for goods[11] Group 3: CPI Results - The CPI year-over-year increased by 2.7% in November, lower than the previous 3.0% and below the expected 3.1%[8] - Core CPI year-over-year rose by 2.6%, also below expectations and the previous value of 3.0%[8] - Core goods inflation showed a significant slowdown, with an average month-over-month increase of only 0.03%, far below the market expectation of 0.3%[9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a strong spring rally in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by liquidity easing and unexpected incremental capital inflows, similar to previous years such as 2021 and 2023 [2] - The report identifies key conditions for a robust spring rally, including macroeconomic data exceeding expectations and upward trends in corporate earnings, as seen in 2017 and 2019 [2] - Current liquidity concerns are addressed, indicating that the impact of Japanese carry trade unwinding is likely to be weak, and the peak of stock unlock pressure has passed, with December seeing HKD 126 billion in restricted stock unlocks [2] - The report suggests that the next Federal Reserve chair is expected to adopt a dovish stance, reducing concerns over excessively hawkish monetary policy, which supports the outlook for the Hong Kong spring rally [2] Industry Analysis - The report anticipates that the upcoming year will see significant developments in the DeepSeek model and advancements in domestic internet companies' consumer applications, which may positively catalyze the fundamentals of the Hang Seng Technology Index [2]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year growth of 0.0%, down from 3.2% in the previous period, primarily due to a high base effect from last year[3] - Central government revenue decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while local government revenue increased by 4.1%[4] - Cumulative fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of the year grew by 0.8% year-on-year, marking one of the lowest levels in the past decade, only better than 2020 and 2022[3] Group 2: Tax Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue in November increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 8.6% previously, with corporate income tax showing a significant decline of 5.2%[4] - Personal income tax grew by 11.4% year-on-year, while domestic value-added tax (VAT) increased by 3.3%[5] - The decline in corporate income tax is attributed to an early revenue recognition effect from the previous year's fourth quarter[4] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure in November decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with cumulative expenditure progress at 84%, the slowest in five years[6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures, particularly in agriculture and community services, saw significant declines, with cumulative spending down by 13.6% and 8.3% respectively[6] - Technology expenditure, however, increased by 27.4% year-on-year, indicating a shift in spending priorities[6] Group 4: Broader Fiscal Context - The fiscal deficit reached 4.8 trillion yuan, with a deficit progress of 62%, largely due to reduced infrastructure spending[7] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 15.8% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate sector[7] - The upcoming fiscal policies for 2026 are expected to be crucial, with potential acceleration in spending to stimulate economic activity[8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The REITs issuance industry is expanding, with commercial REITs being recognized as an independent category. New policies have been introduced to support the issuance of REITs for commercial office facilities, four-star hotels, sports venues, and urban renewal projects [4][12][13] - As of the end of November, the total number of C-REITs listed funds reached 77, with a total scale of 219.885 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.31% month-on-month. The market's average daily turnover rate was low, indicating reduced market activity [4][17] - The average distribution rate for C-REITs remained stable at 5.67%, with a slight increase from the previous month. The spread between the distribution rate and the 30-year treasury yield was steady [4][17] Policy Review and Market Outlook - The policy landscape for C-REITs has been updated, with the introduction of new asset categories for issuance. The government is actively supporting the expansion of REITs to include more private investment projects [12][13] - The issuance of C-REITs is expected to accelerate, with a total of 10.98 billion yuan raised from a new project in November, despite a decrease in the overall issuance scale compared to October [17][20] Market Performance Review - The C-REITs market experienced a decline in the comprehensive income index by 0.75% in November, with a low average turnover rate of 0.50%. The market's performance was affected by high valuations and low investor interest [4][17] - Notable increases in specific REITs were observed in sectors such as consumption, highways, and affordable rental housing, with some REITs showing gains of over 4% [4][17] Valuation and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the sector, such as Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, have been rated as "Buy" with reasonable values set for their stocks. For instance, Vanke A has a reasonable value of 7.64 yuan per share, while China Overseas Development is valued at 16.02 HKD per share [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company, with a current price of 1.38 HKD and a target value of 1.89 HKD [4]. Core Insights - China Cinda has disclosed significant proposed mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to result in a one-time post-tax gain of approximately 20 billion RMB [1]. - Following the merger, China Cinda will no longer hold any shares in Cinda Securities A-shares and will receive 1.3 billion shares in China International Capital Corporation (CICC), representing about 16.71% of CICC's equity [1]. - The proposed merger is anticipated to generate substantial one-time earnings due to the shift from cost method to fair value accounting for the merger [1]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to decline from 76.17 billion RMB in 2023 to 73.04 billion RMB in 2024, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to drop significantly from 5.82 billion RMB in 2023 to 3.04 billion RMB in 2024, before rebounding to 3.67 billion RMB in 2025 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease from 0.11 RMB in 2023 to 0.04 RMB in 2024, with a gradual increase to 0.16 RMB by 2027 [2]. Business Operations - The company has focused on acquiring non-performing assets, with the scale of operational acquisitions increasing year-on-year despite a decline in disposal scale due to economic conditions [8]. - The internal rate of return for operational acquisitions in the first half of 2025 was 8.7%, slightly down from 8.9% in the previous year [8]. - Revenue from acquisition and restructuring business fell by 65.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a structured exit from these assets [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 6.32 for 2023, increasing to 24.03 by 2025, before decreasing to 7.87 by 2027 [2]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to rise from 0.17 in 2023 to 0.29 in 2025, then stabilize around 0.25 by 2027 [2].