[Table_Summary] 核心观点： | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|------------| | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | | | 保险Ⅱ行业 : 保险资金权益配 | 2024-12-19 | | 置：聚焦 OCI 和长股投，跨 | | | 越低利率周期 | | | 保险Ⅱ行业 :11 月保费点评 - | 2024-12-15 | | 寿险单月增速明显改善，财 | | | 险累计增速持续走扩 | | | 保险Ⅱ行业 : 个金全面扩大 + | 2024-12-13 | | | | [Table_Contacts] SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2 / 4 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|------------| | | | | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-12-22 | win ...

数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心 （二）1-11 月火电核准 28GW，新增开工建设火电 79GW wind 2024-12-22 16:25:02 [Table_PageText] 深度分析|公用事业 表 ：全国六大区域月均风电利用率 三、水情：10-11 月来水偏枯，主要流域发电量下滑 （一）来水丰枯急转，高水位优势延续 8月份来水丰枯急转，10-11月多数流域来水偏枯。根据各省水文网站数据，自然来 水来看，长江流域7-8月份来水偏丰，8月下旬低基数效应减弱的同时，来水也迅速 变枯，并延续至11月底，金下-长江流域来水同比下滑2-3成，长江上游三峡电站平 均入库流量同比-34.9%；雅砻江流域来水同比偏枯约一成，锦屏一级电站平均入库 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 [Table_PageText] 深度分析|公用事业 流量同比-10.3%；清江水布垭电站入库流量同比-85.3%；大渡河来水同比偏枯约2-3 成，猴子岩电站平均入库流量同比-26.1%，瀑布沟电站平均入库流量同比-20.0%； 而珠江流域四季度来水偏丰，龙滩电站平均入库流量同比+118.6%。 备注：乌东德、白鹤滩入库流 ...

wind 2024-12-22 16:05:12 [Table_PageText] 投资策略周报|建筑装饰 图 7：截至12月17日，样本建筑工地资金到位率65.88% 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10 / 15 表 3：本周公司公告梳理 买入： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 10%以上。 内 持有： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价相对大盘的变动幅度介于-5%～+5%。 研究人员制作本报告的报酬标准依据研究质量、客户评价、工作量等多种因素确定，其影响因素亦包括广发证券的整体经营收入，该等经 营收入部分来源于广发证券的投资银行类业务。 本报告仅面向经广发证券授权使用的客户/特定合作机构发送，不对外公开发布，只有接收人才可以使用，且对于接收人而言具有保密义 务。广发证券并不因相关人员通过其他途径收到或阅读本报告而视其为广发证券的客户。在特定国家或地区传播或者发布本报告可能违反 当地法律，广发证券并未采取任何行动以允许于该等国家或地区传播或者分销本报告。 wind 2024-12-22 16:05:12 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the internet sector, particularly for companies like Tencent Holdings, Tencent Music, and NetEase Cloud Music, which are expected to maintain robust growth models and expanding profit margins. The report also highlights the importance of macroeconomic recovery for companies like Meituan, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Weibo, which are linked to delivery, e-commerce, and advertising growth [7][42] - The gaming sector is recommended for continued investment, with expectations of product reserves leading to performance elasticity for companies such as Perfect World, Century Huatong, and others. The report notes that many companies have a rich pipeline of new products that could drive revenue growth [7][31] - In the publishing sector, the report points out the continuation of tax exemption policies for state-owned publishing companies, suggesting a focus on companies with high dividend yields and potential for value enhancement, such as Zhongnan Media and Wanzhong Media [7] - The film industry is highlighted for its upcoming supply inflection point, particularly with the strong lineup for the Spring Festival, which is expected to set new box office records. Companies like Maoyan Entertainment and Wanda Film are recommended due to their anticipated performance elasticity [7] - The marketing sector is advised to focus on brand advertising recovery, with companies like Focus Media and Zhaoxun Media being highlighted, along with AI marketing firms such as BlueFocus and Yidian Tianxia [7] Summary by Sections Internet Sector - The report suggests that internet companies are currently trading at high single-digit to low double-digit PE ratios, indicating stable growth potential. Key companies to watch include Tencent Holdings, Tencent Music, and NetEase Cloud Music [7][42] Gaming Sector - The report reiterates a positive outlook for the gaming sector, with many companies expected to have product reserves that could lead to performance elasticity. Companies such as Perfect World and Century Huatong are recommended for investment [7][31] Publishing Sector - The report highlights the continuation of tax exemption policies for state-owned publishing companies, suggesting a focus on companies with high dividend yields and potential for value enhancement, such as Zhongnan Media and Wanzhong Media [7] Film Sector - The report notes a significant upcoming supply inflection point in the film industry, particularly with the strong Spring Festival lineup expected to break box office records. Companies like Maoyan Entertainment and Wanda Film are recommended for their anticipated performance elasticity [7] Marketing Sector - The report advises focusing on brand advertising recovery, highlighting companies like Focus Media and Zhaoxun Media, as well as AI marketing firms such as BlueFocus and Yidian Tianxia [7]

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 ⚫ 12 月政治局会议和中央经济工作会议定调积极，"稳楼市"、"加强超 常规逆周期调节"、"适度宽松的货币政策"，从当前到明年两会前的重 大政策空窗期内，宽松的货币环境和积极的财政预期形成较强支撑， 更多的增量政策也有望跟进，有利于后续基本面企稳，我们继续看好 建材板块的投资机会。当前建材行业景气仍在左侧，但考虑到各板块 陆续筑底（水泥玻璃盈利底部震荡，消费建材收入和利润承压），且在 行业底部龙头经历了压力测试、经营韧性十足，如二手房和存量房翻 新需求支撑下零售建材韧性强、周期建材龙头在底部仍有显著的超额 利润。建议关注成长性较强、估值弹性大的消费建材板块，和盈利处 于底部、供给端出现积极变化的水泥玻璃龙头，以及玻纤龙头底部配 置机会，和部分结构性景气赛道（药玻、风电等）。 ⚫ 消费建材：政策持续发力，龙头经营韧性强。消费建材长期需求稳定 性好、行业集中度持续提升、竞争格局好的优质细分龙头中长期成长 空间仍然很大。下游地产仍在寻底，新开工面积预计已回落至中期较 低水平，等待销售企稳好转；核心龙头公司经营韧性强。看好三棵树、 兔宝宝、北 ...

图 19：2014~2024中国化工产品价格指数与原油价格复盘 Q3/08Q3/09Q3/10Q3/11Q3/12Q3/13Q3/14Q3/15Q3/16Q3/17Q3/18Q3/19Q3/20Q3/21Q3/22Q3/23 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21 / 43 2024.10 陕煤集团榆林化学有限责任公司 1500 万吨/年煤炭分质清洁高效转化示范项 目烯烃、芳烃及深加工工程一阶段项目 甲酯、500 万吨焦化项目、50 万吨焦炉煤气制甲醇、80 万吨合 数据来源：The European Chemical Industry Council，广发证 券发展研究中心 数据来源：The European Chemical Industry Council，广发证 券发展研究中心 大型化工项目通常具备规模效应，随着生产规模的扩大，许多固定成本可以在更大 的生产量上进行分摊，从而降低单位成本。同时，规模化生产也将伴随着工艺技术 的提升和自动化水平的提高，从而进一步提高生产效率，减少人工和能源消耗。此 外，大型项目通常能够通过热能回收系统、联合循环发电等手段来优化能源管理和 提高设备利用率，减少 ...

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[Table_PageText] 跟踪分析|银行 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 2021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-10 SDR兑人民币 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19 / 31 图 23：中国失业率跟踪（%） 图 24：中国PMI跟踪 数据来源：同花顺iFinD，广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：同花顺iFinD，广发证券发展研究中心 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20 / 31 （二）美国：中长期美债利率、美元指数均大幅上升 根据Wind，本期6M、1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y分别变动-3bp、3bp、12bp、12bp、11bp。 3. 经济数据：本期美国公布11月PCE数据 数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，广发证券发展研究中心 wind 2024-12-22 16:05:01 数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心 6.00 6.20 6.40 6.60 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for China Power and China Shipbuilding, with a focus on the marine engine sector and related companies [2][14]. Core Insights - The marine engine sector is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with demand for ship engines steadily increasing due to environmental technology transitions and market changes. The report highlights that the global market for marine engines is expected to reach approximately 650 billion CNY annually from 2025 to 2030, with potential growth to 1500 billion CNY in the long term [2][12][23]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of marine engines is on an upward trend, with the average price of low-speed engines increasing by 4% in 2023 compared to 2022, reaching 44.17 million CNY per unit [2][39][68]. - The report identifies China Power as a leading manufacturer in the low-speed engine market, benefiting from technological advancements and market positioning, with a domestic market share of 78% and an international market share of 39% [2][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The marine engine is a critical component of shipbuilding, accounting for about 20% of the total ship cost. The report notes that the engine's order and delivery cycles lag behind those of the shipbuilding sector, with a typical delay of 6-9 months [2][51][56]. 2. Demand Dynamics - Demand for marine engines is closely tied to new ship orders, driven by market conditions, aging fleets, and environmental upgrades. The report estimates that global demand for marine engines will reach approximately 22.5 million horsepower annually from 2024 to 2025, with a significant portion of this demand coming from the aftermarket, which is projected to be worth 100-120 billion CNY annually from 2024 to 2030 [2][12][23]. 3. Supply Conditions - The supply of marine engines is characterized by a weak recovery and a strong concentration of market share among leading manufacturers. The report indicates that the supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight, with environmental transitions and the trend towards larger vessels accelerating market concentration [2][12][23]. 4. Profitability Outlook - The report forecasts a long-term upward shift in profitability for marine engines, driven by stable demand and rising prices. The average profit margin for China Power is expected to improve as the company capitalizes on its market position and technological advancements [2][12][23]. 5. Key Players - The report highlights major players in the marine engine market, including China Power, HHI, and HSD, noting that China Power has significantly increased its market share in recent years [2][60][33].

基于PB-ROE模型，我们强调军工板块25年投资策略有四：（1）强调ROE分子端稳 定增长持续性，重点关注军贸&航空燃机出海&大飞机&维修，关注航发动力/中国动 力/航发控制、国睿科技、中航重机、中航西飞、中航沈飞、洪都航空、中直股份、 中航高科、航材股份、中航机载、光威复材；（2）强调困境反转策略，重点在于判 航发动力，航空全球配套核心标的：（1）需求端，持续受益于高端航空装备批产需 求，中长期存在民航市场发动机国产替代机遇，长期看航空发动机高端防务及全球 民航大飞机市场存在较大体量的维修及替换需求。（2）供给及盈利端，公司作为国 内主导航空发动机供应商，航发产品核心机型谱化发展、重资产行业批产带动的产 能利用提升、高附加值低成本投入的维修业务占比扩大等均有望逐步抬升公司远期 盈利中枢水平。（3）业绩&估值预判，据公司2023年年报，2024年公司预计实现营 业收入497.62亿元，主营业务三大板块中航空发动机及行生产品收入464.82亿元， 外贸出口转包收入20.79亿元，非航空产品及其他业务收入6.33亿元。我们判断， 2024-25年预计归母净利润分别为15.22/19.29/25.65亿，24年动态 ...