Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The tax exemption policy for cultural enterprises has been extended until December 31, 2027, significantly improving the cash flow and profitability of state-owned publishing companies [12][89] - The main business of educational publishing companies is expected to maintain steady growth in the short to medium term, despite a decline in profits in the first three quarters of 2024 due to increased corporate income tax payments [20][29] - The application of AI technology in the publishing industry is being implemented across various processes, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [21][121] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation, and Central Propaganda Department announced that operating cultural enterprises converted into companies will be exempt from corporate income tax until December 31, 2027 [25][50] - This policy is expected to lower cash outflow forecasts for state-owned publishing companies from 2024 to 2027, as many companies previously faced effective tax rates between 20%-30% [52][89] Educational Publishing Growth - Educational publishing companies are projected to maintain steady growth until 2027, with a focus on adapting to demographic changes and regulatory environments [20][29] - The decline in K12 student numbers in most provinces is anticipated to begin around 2025, but certain provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong are expected to show resilience due to population inflows [29][59] AI Technology Integration - AI technology is being integrated into various aspects of the publishing process, including content planning, design, and marketing, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [21][121] - Companies are launching AI-driven educational products, such as smart reading and AI-assisted tutoring, to meet evolving educational needs [115][116] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned publishing companies with high dividend yields or potential for dividend increases, such as Wanshin Media, Zhejiang Publishing, and Phoenix Media [79][89] - Companies with strong AI applications in education, like Southern Media and Wanshin Media, are also highlighted for their growth potential [89]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the context suggests a positive outlook for lithium extraction from salt lakes, indicating potential investment opportunities. Core Insights - The report highlights the steady development of lithium extraction from salt lakes in China, particularly in Qinghai and Tibet, with significant projects underway and expected to contribute to increased lithium supply and price stabilization [32][46]. - The establishment of the China Salt Lake Group aims to consolidate resources and enhance the development of a world-class salt lake industry base in Qinghai, with a target output value of 340 billion yuan by 2025 [66]. - The demand for lithium is projected to grow significantly due to the increasing production of electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with expectations of a robust market through 2025 [40][60]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Lithium Price and Demand - The report anticipates an upward shift in lithium price centers due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with a projected price range of 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton by 2025 [62][86]. - The demand for lithium is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the automotive sector and energy storage applications, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle sales in China [41][79]. Section 2: Development of Salt Lake Lithium Extraction - Qinghai's salt lake projects are progressing, with the establishment of the China Salt Lake Group to integrate resources and enhance production capabilities [32][66]. - In Tibet, the Zabuye salt lake has commenced trial production, while other projects are in various stages of development, indicating a gradual ramp-up in production capacity [32][70]. Section 3: Technology and Suppliers - Companies with capabilities in adsorption and membrane technology are highlighted as key players in the lithium extraction process, with several firms securing significant contracts for supply [46][47]. - Notable companies include Jiuwu High-Tech, which has won multiple contracts for its core technology, and Blue Sky Technology, which has established a strong presence in the salt lake lithium extraction market [46][47].

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction and decoration industry as "Buy" [18] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the management mechanism for special bonds, expanding the scope of fund allocation and usage for project capital [5][43] - It highlights the establishment of the Low Altitude Economy Development Office, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of development strategies and promote infrastructure construction in the low-altitude economy sector [72] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas and regions, particularly recommending investment in nuclear power engineering, water conservancy, urban renewal, and the ice and snow economy [18][74] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction and decoration industry has seen a decline, with a reported drop of 1.5% in the week ending December 27, 2024 [73] - The report notes that the issuance of special bonds for 2024 reached 4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while net financing decreased by 6.1% [74] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises with strong performance in high-demand areas, particularly in nuclear power and urban renewal projects [18][74] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Nuclear Engineering, China Communications Construction, and China Electric Power Construction [18][74] Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed financial analysis of key companies in the industry, including their latest closing prices, target values, and earnings per share projections for 2024 and 2025 [20] - For instance, China State Construction's latest closing price is 6.04 yuan, with a target value of 7.05 yuan, indicating a potential upside [20] Policy Developments - The report discusses recent policy changes, including the replacement of the "operating cash ratio" with the "operating revenue collection rate" as part of the new evaluation system for state-owned enterprises [39][60] - It also outlines the government's focus on enhancing the efficiency of special bond usage and ensuring that funds are directed towards high-quality projects [62][63]

空间 Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|传媒 [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 12 月国产与进口游戏版号发布，阿里开源首个视觉推理模型 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本周（12月23日-12月27日）中信传媒板块下跌7.61%，跑输上证指数 8.56个百分点。本周（12月23日-12月27日）A股传媒板块有所回调， 主要系市场预期近期AI等方向短期缺少强催化，年底资金兑现。我们 认为AI产业趋势在，同时传媒互联网政策环境边际宽松，并且短期春 节档有望表现亮眼，业绩预期向好、估值合理的方向推荐积极配置， 推荐关注互联网、游戏等板块，及营销和影视中绩优个股。 ⚫ 投资建议：（1）互联网：我们认为当前市值切换25年盈利预期来看， 互联网公司的PE普遍处于高个位数和低双位数区间，稳健增长的标 的，建议关注腾讯控股、以及音乐流媒体的腾讯音乐和网易云音乐， 未来的增长模型稳健，盈利空间仍在不断上拓。从宏观弹性来看，我 们建议关注和经济复苏强挂钩的外卖、电商以及广告增长为主要利润 支持的美团、快手、哔哩哔哩、微博。从出海超预期，我们建议关注 泡泡玛特（北美市场拓展和尺寸拓维）。内 ...

七、风险提示 . 松——银行资负跟踪 [Table_Title] 银行投资观察 20241229 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 12/23 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 银行 沪深300 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 20241222 流动性宽松、同业存款自律政策调整和抢配置等因素驱动，12 月长债 利率大幅下行，高股息资产的相对吸引力再次上升，本月股息率成为驱 动个股上涨的重要因素（见图 2）。短期来看，展望 1 月份，我们认为 无风险利率下行驱动高股息重估的趋势将于 1 月中旬达到高峰，但也 可能是本轮持续三年高股息重估的尾声。其一，抢配置推动的利率下 行会让配置资金面对利率资产偏好下降，而配置资金增量同比可能亦 不会太强（参见资产配置 2025），因而长债将于一月初探至中期底部。 其二，流动性将于 1 月中旬后转紧。国内来看，1 月中旬为缴税高峰， 同时今年春节较早 ...

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Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 33.70 per share [17] Core Views - The company is at a critical inflection point, aiming to achieve profitability by the end of 2025 [1] - Commercial sales are rapidly expanding, with product sales reaching USD 289 million in the first three quarters of 2024, a 44% YoY increase [2] - The company's revenue CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is expected to be around 50% [2] - The company has three global rights pipelines in clinical stages, with ZL-1310 showing potential as a best-in-class DLL3 ADC [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from USD 387 million in 2024 to USD 856 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 45% [3][17] - EBITDA is projected to improve from a loss of USD 297 million in 2024 to a near break-even of USD -8 million in 2026 [3] - Net profit is expected to turn positive by 2026, reaching USD 41 million [3] Product Pipeline and Commercialization - The company has a differentiated global pipeline with products like ZL-1310 (DLL3 ADC), ZL-1102 (IL-17A), and ZL-1218 (CCR8) in clinical stages [3] - Key products such as Niraparib, Tumor Treating Fields, and Repotrectinib have been approved and are contributing to revenue growth [42][73] - The company is focusing on global rights pipelines, with ZL-1310 showing promising Phase Ia data [3] Key Products and Market Potential - **Efgartigimod (FcRn antagonist)**: Rapid sales growth post-approval, with Q1-Q3 2024 sales reaching USD 63.6 million in China [78] - **KarXT (M1/M4 receptor agonist)**: Expected to revolutionize schizophrenia treatment, with potential for approval in China by 2026 [60][122] - **Bemarituzumab (FGFR2b monoclonal antibody)**: Shows promise in gastric cancer, with Phase III trials expected to read out in 2025 [97][103] - **Tumor Treating Fields**: Positive results in pancreatic cancer Phase III trials, with potential for new indications [106][107] Financial Efficiency - R&D expenses in Q1-Q3 2024 were USD 182 million, a 1% YoY decrease, with an R&D expense ratio of 63% [46] - SG&A expenses were USD 216 million, a 9% YoY increase, with an expense ratio of 75% [46] - Net loss in Q1-Q3 2024 was USD 175 million, a reduction of USD 64 million compared to the previous year [46] Strategic Partnerships and Licensing - The company has secured strategic partnerships with global biopharma companies, including Argenx for Efgartigimod and Karuna Therapeutics for KarXT [40][89] - Licensing agreements have been instrumental in building a differentiated product pipeline, with products like Niraparib and Tumor Treating Fields contributing significantly to revenue [40][71] Market and Industry Context - The company operates in the biopharmaceutical sector, focusing on oncology, autoimmune diseases, CNS disorders, and infectious diseases [38][42] - The global rights pipeline and strategic partnerships position the company for long-term growth in both domestic and international markets [3][71]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 485.21 per share [24][18] Core Views - WeChat Mini Stores are leveraging Tencent's social ecosystem to drive supply and demand, creating a unique lightweight social e-commerce model [17] - The "Gift Sending" feature in WeChat Mini Stores is expected to enhance user engagement and drive incremental growth for merchants [34] - WeChat Mini Stores have established a solid foundation with over RMB 2 trillion in GMV from mini-programs in Q3 2024, primarily driven by e-commerce transactions [21][17] - The integration of public and private domain traffic in WeChat Mini Stores is expected to enhance user conversion and repeat purchases [29] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 8.0% in 2024 to RMB 657.9 billion and by 8.4% in 2025 to RMB 713.0 billion [18][19] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase by 45.0% in 2024 to RMB 221.8 billion and by 10.2% in 2025 to RMB 244.4 billion [18][19] - Non-GAAP EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 16.13 in 2023 to RMB 23.93 in 2024 and RMB 26.38 in 2025 [19] WeChat Mini Stores and Social E-commerce - WeChat Mini Stores are positioned as the core e-commerce component within WeChat, integrating public and private domain traffic to drive transactions [27][29] - The "Gift Sending" feature is expected to create new demand scenarios, especially during festive seasons like Chinese New Year, potentially replacing traditional red packet gifting [34] - Merchants with WeChat Mini Stores will receive priority in search results, enhancing visibility and driving traffic [64] Market Performance and Valuation - Tencent's stock is expected to outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [56] - The company's Non-GAAP PE ratio is projected to decrease from 16.7x in 2023 to 14.6x in 2025, indicating potential undervaluation [19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 87.69 HKD per share, reflecting a strong growth potential in the market [68][198]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pizza delivery expert, with a clear path for profitability improvement and significant store expansion potential. The target for new store openings is set at 300-350 per year for the next two years, with a projected total of around 3,000 stores by 2030, nearly three times the current number [54][191][198]. - The company has demonstrated strong brand momentum, achieving continuous same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters, even in a challenging market environment [68][145]. - The delivery model is a key differentiator, with a commitment to delivering within 30 minutes, which enhances customer satisfaction and brand loyalty [96][232]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pizza market in China is expected to grow from 45.8 billion RMB in 2023 to 77.1 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 13.9% [39][171]. - The chain penetration rate for the pizza industry is significantly higher than other dining sectors, with a current rate of 90.1% expected to rise to 93.1% by 2027 [18][39]. Company Profile - The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino's Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, having opened 1,000 stores across 33 cities as of November 2024 [68][80]. - The management team is experienced, with a focus on local market strategies and a commitment to enhancing operational efficiency [81][106]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a robust supply chain and a diverse menu, offering 33 different pizza options with customizable toppings, which enhances customer appeal [124][154]. - The brand has a strong global presence, being the leading pizza brand worldwide, which supports its growth in the Chinese market [157]. Future Outlook - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 42.9 billion RMB in 2024, 53.0 billion RMB in 2025, and 63.8 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [171][173]. - The company is expected to improve its operating profit margin (OPM) due to increased sales and optimized cost structures, with a target OPM of 14.5% by 2024 [164][171].