[Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 中电联口径截至 12 月 11 日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比-8.2%（11 月同比-7.2%）。 中电联指出"电力及非电需求延续疲软行情"，"从产量来看，整体稳定，局部微调，整体维持在历史同期偏高 水平"。 1根据中电联电力行业燃料统计，截至12月11日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比下降8.2%， 本年累计发电量同比下降 3.9%。燃煤电厂本月累计供热量同比增长 0.8%，本年累计供热量同比增长 5.8%。燃 煤电厂耗煤量本月累计同比下降 7.3%，本年累计同比下降 4.6%。燃煤电厂煤炭库存低于去年同期 107 万吨， 库存可用天数高于上年同期 2.1 天。 另据 Wind 数据（若未特别注明，报告数据均来自 Wind）：截至 12 月第二周，三峡水库站（入库）流量均值 同比-9.2%（前值 48.0%），历史上三峡水电站流量与全国水力发电同比存在高相关性。 工业开工率涨跌互现，上游钢铁高炉开工率同比低于前值，下游江浙织机开工率同比高于前值。截至 12 月第 二周，全国 247 家高炉开工率（月均值，下同）同比回落 0.7pc ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 5.87 CNY and a reasonable value of 7.27 CNY for A-shares, and 4.18 HKD with a reasonable value of 4.88 HKD for H-shares [6]. Core Views - The company will significantly improve its cash flow by recovering 2 billion CNY in receivables, as part of a broader initiative to address local government debt risks [6]. - The historical dividend payout ratio is between 30%-40%, with expectations for an increase in future dividends due to improved cash flow from receivables recovery [6]. - The company is projected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2024, with a forecasted net profit of 865 million CNY for 2023, declining to 807 million CNY in 2024, and then increasing to 951 million CNY in 2025 [6][2]. - The report anticipates a continuous increase in gross margin, reaching 39.8% in 2024, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin operational revenue [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 4,665 million CNY - 2024A: 4,827 million CNY - 2025E: 4,978 million CNY - 2026E: 5,068 million CNY - 2027E: 5,151 million CNY - Growth rates are projected at 3.2% for 2023, 3.5% for 2024, and declining thereafter [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 865 million CNY - 2024A: 807 million CNY - 2025E: 951 million CNY - 2026E: 1,001 million CNY - 2027E: 1,041 million CNY - Notable growth of 15.2% in 2023, followed by a decline in 2024, and a rebound in subsequent years [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.55 CNY - 2024A: 0.51 CNY - 2025E: 0.61 CNY - 2026E: 0.64 CNY - 2027E: 0.66 CNY [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 10.1 in 2023 to 8.9 in 2027 for A-shares, and from 6.3 to 4.1 for H-shares over the same period [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The industry is experiencing a robust supply and demand growth, with November data showing a year-on-year increase in both supply and demand. The passenger load factor has improved, particularly in domestic routes, which have seen a significant increase compared to 2019 levels. In November, the total supply and demand for six listed airlines increased by 7.1% and 10.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 110.4% and 116.7% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019. The passenger load factor rose by 2.5 percentage points to 85.6%, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than in November 2019 [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In November, domestic routes saw supply and demand increase by 4.2% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively, achieving 113.3% and 118.2% of the levels from 2019. The passenger load factor for domestic routes improved by 2.1 percentage points to 86.6%, which is 3.6 percentage points higher than in 2019. International routes experienced a more significant increase, with supply and demand rising by 15.0% and 20.7% year-on-year, reaching 104.8% and 113.5% of 2019 levels. The passenger load factor for international routes increased by 3.9 percentage points to 83.4%, which is 6.4 percentage points higher than in 2019 [6][6]. Airline Performance - Performance among airlines varied, with Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factors. In November, the three major airlines reported a year-on-year increase in supply and demand of 6.7% and 10.3%, respectively, continuing their recovery trend. Domestic routes for these airlines have returned to 111.6% and 116.6% of 2019 levels. Eastern Airlines had the highest passenger load factor, increasing by 3.0 percentage points to 87.4%, while China National Airlines showed the fastest recovery, with a 3.9 percentage point increase to 83.3% [6][6]. External Factors - External events continue to disrupt demand, particularly on the China-Japan route, which is experiencing short-term weakness. However, the long-term recovery trend for international routes remains intact. Recent policy changes have extended the free cancellation and modification policy for flights on this route until March 28, 2026. Despite the current challenges, the demand for international flights is expected to recover in the medium to long term, supported by resilient ticket prices [6][6].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Buy [3] Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, with total retail sales amounting to 4.4 trillion CNY. This represents a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to October 2025. Excluding automobiles, the total retail sales reached 3.9 trillion CNY, growing by 2.5% year-on-year [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the domestic demand expansion strategy and suggests that the retail sector is expected to enter a profit recovery phase as adjustments in supermarkets progress [6] - The report highlights the performance of various categories, noting that food and beverage retail sales grew by 6.1% and 2.9% respectively, while jewelry sales saw a significant increase of 8.5% [6] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - November 2025 saw a total retail sales of 4.4 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The growth rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points from October 2025. Urban retail sales were 3.8 trillion CNY (1.0% growth), while rural retail sales were 0.6 trillion CNY (2.8% growth) [6] - The breakdown of retail sales shows that commodity retail was 3.8 trillion CNY (1.0% growth), and dining revenue was 0.6 trillion CNY (3.2% growth) [6] Category Performance - In November, the retail sales growth rates for staple food and beverages were 6.1% and 2.9%, respectively. However, tobacco and alcohol sales declined by 3.4% [6] - Optional consumer goods such as cosmetics and jewelry saw growth rates of 6.1% and 8.5%, while building materials, furniture, and home appliances experienced declines of 17.0%, 3.8%, and 19.4% respectively [6] E-commerce Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate slightly decreased, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 14.5 trillion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 9.1%. The penetration rate was 25.9%, showing a 0.7 percentage point increase from the previous month but a 0.8 percentage point decrease year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - Retail: Focus on companies like Bubu Gao, Huijia Times, Yonghui Supermarket, and Chongqing Department Store as the industry is expected to enter a profit recovery phase [6] - Cosmetics: The report recommends companies such as Shumei Co., Mao Ge Ping, and Shui Yang Co. due to their strong performance and market positioning [6] - Jewelry: Companies with a high proportion of fixed-price products and a high-end branding strategy are highlighted, such as Laopuyin and Mankalon [6] - Tourism: Recommendations include Changbai Mountain and companies with acquisition expectations like Xiyu Tourism [6] - Education: Focus on undervalued vocational education stocks like China Oriental Education and Action Education, as well as leading companies like Xueda Education [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "globalization and AI+" in advancing high-quality development in the defense and military industry, highlighting the need for modernization and efficiency improvements in military systems [5][30][34] - The investment strategy focuses on balancing value and growth, with traditional sectors entering an S-curve evolution phase while new demands and replacements coexist [5][30] Section Summaries 1. Current Development Stage from the S-Curve Perspective - The defense and military industry is in a growth phase, with traditional sectors experiencing rapid development during the previous five-year plan, but not yet entering a slowdown [16][26] - The S-curve model indicates that the industry lifecycle includes multiple product lifecycles, with the current focus on extending product lifespans through innovation [23][24] 2. S-Curve Cycle Expansion - Global military trade remains robust, emphasizing the importance of lifecycle management from equipment to services [9][18] - The report anticipates that the demand for large aircraft and low-altitude economic activities will accelerate due to supportive policies [9][28] 3. S-Curve Cycle Evolution - Supply chain reforms are crucial for reducing costs and complexity, enhancing the focus on maintenance and repair services [9][33] - The integration of unmanned systems and intelligent technologies is expected to drive significant advancements in military capabilities [9][51] 4. New Cycle of the S-Curve: Emerging Industries - The report identifies commercial aerospace, AI, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum information, and deep-sea technology as key areas for future growth [9][57][65] - The acceleration of technological advancements and policy support is expected to unlock new market opportunities in these sectors [9][58] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that align with the evolving S-curve, particularly those involved in supply chain reform, maintenance, and unmanned systems [5][30] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include 航发动力, 中航高科, and 国睿科技, among others, which are positioned to benefit from these trends [6][9]

[Table_Page] 投资策略报告|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 锂电行业 2026 年投资策略 储能需求驱动周期反转，电池和材料迎来新机遇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]陈子坤 SAC 执证号：S0260513080001 010-59136690 chenzikun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈昕 SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 SFC CE No. BWV823 010-59136699 gfchenxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 黄思悦 SAC 执证号：S0260525070002 0755-23608197 huangsiyue@gf.com.cn -20% -6% 8% 22% 36% 50% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 电力设备 沪深300 请注意，陈子坤,黄思悦并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员 会的注册持牌人，不可 ...

Economic Overview - Effective demand remains significantly insufficient, with industrial added value in November increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.9% in the previous period[3] - Retail sales growth has notably slowed to 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% previously[3] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year remains stable at approximately -11%, consistent with the previous value of -11.2%[5] Sector Performance - High-tech industry added value rose by 8.4% year-on-year, up from 7.2% previously[4] - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, recovering from a decline of 1.1%[3] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 18.6% decline previously, while sales revenue fell by 24.7%, worsening from a 24.1% decline[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in November decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment down by 4.5% and real estate investment down by 30.1%[5] - The construction area for new projects fell by 27.6% year-on-year, while the area under construction dropped by 40%[5] - The total investment in fixed assets for the first 11 months of the year showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with non-real estate fixed asset investment increasing by 0.8%[5] Policy Implications - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to address the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction and to stimulate investment and consumption[7] - The potential for policy measures to strengthen demand has opened up following the release of November's economic data[7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]

Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies benefiting from positive trends in orders and raw material prices [5][12] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies like New Australia Co., Nike's upstream supply chain, and various leading brands expected to recover in performance next year [5][12] - The light industry sector shows resilience, with recommendations for companies in home textiles and new consumer businesses that are expected to grow significantly [5][12] Textile and Apparel Industry Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.74% during the period from December 8 to December 12, 2025. The textile and apparel sector (SW) declined by 2.81%, ranking 25th among 31 primary industries [12][13] - The report indicates that the textile and apparel industry's latest PE (TTM) is 20.01X, with historical highs and lows of 57.80X and 14.44X respectively [16][17] Textile and Apparel Export Data Tracking - In November 2025, China's textile exports increased by 1.02% year-on-year, while apparel exports decreased by 10.98% [5] - Vietnam's textile exports in November 2025 amounted to $2.97 billion, down 2.72% year-on-year, with a total export of $35.9 billion for the first 11 months, reflecting a 6.7% increase [5] Light Industry Manufacturing Market Review - The light industry sector's performance remains relatively stable, with external factors like U.S. real estate transactions expected to improve conditions for leading companies [5] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Jiangxin Home, Yuanfei Pet, and Yiyi Co., which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the export market [5] Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies, including EPS, PE ratios, and ROE, indicating a generally favorable outlook for companies like Mercury Home Textiles and Anta Sports [6][25] - Notable companies with strong buy ratings include Mercury Home Textiles (closing price: CNY 20.18, target price: CNY 23.08) and Anta Sports (closing price: HKD 81.80, target price: HKD 105.00) [6][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [41]. Core Insights - The report discusses the concept of "asset scarcity," which is explained through two perspectives: the mismatch between supply and demand for funds, and the insufficient supply of quality assets that meet investors' risk and return preferences. It argues that the traditional supply-demand imbalance does not adequately explain the phenomenon of asset scarcity [5][13]. - The report identifies three dimensions of asset scarcity: macro, meso, and micro. It emphasizes that the bond market is primarily concerned with the micro-level aspects of asset scarcity [5][16]. - To alleviate macro-level asset scarcity, the report suggests increasing credit issuance and fiscal efforts, enhancing liquidity management by the central bank, and guiding non-bank funds back to banks to lower residents' yield expectations on non-bank assets [20][23]. - At the meso level, the report highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary growth rates, suggesting that credit and fiscal efforts should be strengthened while avoiding capital idling [23][24]. - The micro-level analysis focuses on the expectations of institutions regarding asset-liability expansion and actual expansion, noting that there is often a mismatch between liabilities and suitable assets [25][29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Asset Scarcity Exploration - The report explores why the market has shifted its focus away from "asset scarcity," attributing this to a lack of significant asset-liability gaps in the real economy and the nature of interest rates as contractual [5][13]. - It discusses the macroeconomic factors influencing asset scarcity, including the expected decline in bond market yields and economic forecasts [16][18]. Section 2: Financial Institutions' Asset-Liability Management - The report provides a detailed analysis of financial institutions' liabilities, emphasizing the need for a balance between asset expansion and government debt supply [25][29]. - It projects that by 2026, the demand for government bonds will increase by 1.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a growing need for asset allocation in the banking sector [25][29]. Section 3: Insurance Sector Analysis - The report estimates that the insurance sector will face a net increase in asset-liability mismatch of 1.28 trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the expiration of high-yield non-standard investments and continuous growth in premium income [30][29]. Section 4: Expected Returns and Market Dynamics - The report highlights the compression of asset-liability yield spreads due to rigid liabilities and flexible asset yields, which contributes to the practical aspect of asset scarcity for enterprises and theoretical scarcity for residents [35][29]. - It suggests that banks should lower the rigid costs of liabilities and guide non-bank entities to adjust their yield expectations [35][29].