⚫ 基本金属：需求淡季，预计基本金属价格震荡。12 月以来，25 年美联 储降息预期下降，国内财政政策对 25 年内需支撑预期逐渐明晰，淡季 影响下，基本金属价格有所回调。25 年 1 月份的核心焦点在于美联储 25 年的降息预期变化，预计需求淡季持续，强成本与低库存共同支撑 基本金属价格震荡，静待宏观环境进一步改善。建议关注：洛阳钼业 （A+H）、西部矿业、金诚信、中国宏桥（H）、云铝股份、天山铝业等。 ⚫ 钢铁：本月供需稳定，需求淡季预期钢材价利平稳。据 Wind，供给端， 12 月钢厂盈利率下降 2.29 PCT 至 49.68%，低盈利率有望约束供给。 需求端，上海线螺采购平稳。未来宏观增量利好政策有望提升需求改善 预期。成本端，铁水增量有限压制成本上行空间。价利方面，需求淡季 预期价利平稳。关注未来宏观增量政策提振预期，建议关注：宝钢股 份、华菱钢铁、久立特材、甬金股份等。 ⚫ 贵金属：美国换届落地或带来预期变化，金价有望重启上行。本周公布 [Table_Page] 投资策略月报|有色金属 -20% -11% -2% 6% 15% 24% 12/23 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 21 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------|-------|-----------------|-----------------|-------|--------------------------|--------------|----------------|---------------|---------|----------------------------|---------|----------------|-------| | 股票简称 | 股票代码 | 货币 | 最新 \n收盘价 | 最近 \n报告日期 | 评级 | 合理价值 \n（元 / 股） | EPS( \n2024E | 元 ) \n2025E | PE(x) \n2024E | \n2025E | EV/EBITDA(x) \n202 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy," indicating an expectation that stock performance will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [86]. Core Viewpoints - The average price of live pigs in December 2024 is 15.7 CNY/kg, down 4.8% month-on-month but up 8.8% year-on-year. The industry's profitability continues to decline, with expectations for a rebound in pig prices before the Spring Festival [180][106]. - The feed and animal health sectors are experiencing a recovery, driven by increased demand from the livestock sector. The prices of major raw materials have continued to decline, which may positively impact profitability [181]. - The pet food market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 158.5 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase. Attention is drawn to domestic leading brands and their market share growth [64]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In December 2024, the agricultural and forestry sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.2 percentage points, with a decline of 0.4% in the sector compared to a 2.8% increase in the index [22][101]. Livestock Breeding - The average price of live pigs decreased by 5.0% in December 2024, while chicken prices fell by 1.0%. The industry is expected to see a rebound in prices as the peak slaughter period passes [124][180]. Bulk Raw Materials - The spot price of corn in December 2024 is approximately 2143 CNY/ton, down 3.3% month-on-month and down 17.9% year-on-year. The soybean meal price is around 2940 CNY/ton, down 4.5% month-on-month and down 26.1% year-on-year [40][154]. Agricultural Products Processing - The price of white sugar decreased by 1.9% in December 2024, while the price of natural rubber increased by 1.8% [140][161]. Aquatic Products - The price of shrimp increased by 2.5% in December 2024, while the average price of sea cucumbers rose by 30.8% [54][55]. Pet Food - In November 2024, the export volume of pet food increased by 0.3% month-on-month and by 13.9% year-on-year. The total export value for the first 11 months of 2024 reached 9.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [34][167]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the livestock sector, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, as well as companies in the pet food sector like Guai Bao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [180][64].

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10 / 18 数据来源：工信部，广发证券发展研究中心 图11：新兴业务分业务收入增速 数据来源：工信部，广发证券发展研究中心 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 2022 年7月 2022 年8月 2022 年9月 2022 年10月 2022 年11月 2022 年12月 2023 年1月 2023 年2月 2023 年3月 2023 年4月 2023 年5月 2023 年6月 2023 年7月 2023 年8月 2023 年9月 2023 年10月 2023 年11月 2023 年12月 2024 年1月 2024 年2月 2024 年3月 2024 年4月 2024 年5月 2024 年6月 2024 年7月 2024 年8月 2024 年9月 2024 年10月 2024 年11月 云计算业务收入增速 大数据业务收入增速 数据中心业务收入增速 物联网业务收入增速 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11 / 18 为深入贯彻国家关于加快发展"人工智能+"的战略部署，落实《上海市促进人工智 能产业发展条例》，加快建 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-------|--------|---------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 内资净流入 外资净流入 | 资本净流入 | | | 内资净流入 | 外资净流入 资本净流入 | | 1,500 | | | | 1,500 | | | | | | | | 1,000 | | | | 1,000 | | | | 500 | | | | 500 | | | | 0 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and suggests a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1][70]. Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, with a target of adding 1 million units for monetary settlement in urban village renovations by 2025 [1][70]. - New housing transaction volumes have shown an upward trend, with new home sales in 50 cities reaching 6.64 million square meters, a 9.3% increase week-on-week and a 4.6% increase year-on-year [1][23]. - The report highlights a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, with a year-on-year increase of 51.7% in 13 cities [1][28]. - The land transaction volume remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.0% in land transfer fees across major cities [1][42]. Summary by Sections Policy Review - The report outlines recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including the prohibition of special bond funding for real estate development, except for affordable housing and land reserves [17][18]. - Local policies include full property rights for Shenzhen's affordable housing after ten years and mutual recognition of housing funds in five cities in Guangdong [19][20]. Key City Transaction Data - In December 2024, new home sales in 50 cities increased by 14.7% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a 20.7% increase [23]. - Year-to-date, new home sales have decreased by 21.5% compared to the same period in 2023, with first-tier cities down 13.1% [24][45]. Inventory and Supply Tracking - The report notes a weekly increase in new housing supply, with 2.135 million square meters launched in 10 cities, a 24.5% increase week-on-week [58]. - The inventory levels and the de-stocking cycle are monitored, with specific data on major cities provided [39][61]. Land Market Conditions - The report indicates a significant decline in land transfer fees, with a 15.7% decrease in the first 26 days of December 2024 compared to the previous year [42]. - The land transaction volume remains low, reflecting a cautious market environment [62]. Financing and Company Recommendations - The report highlights a total of 3.25 billion yuan in domestic credit bond issuance for real estate companies, with a focus on cost reduction in financing [67]. - Recommended stocks include major real estate developers and property management companies, with specific suggestions for both A-shares and H-shares [71].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------|-------|-----------------|-----------------|-------|--------------------------|--------------|----------------|-------|-----------------|----------------------|---------|----------------|-------| | 股票简称 | 股票代码 | 货币 | 最新 \n收盘价 | 最近 \n报告日期 | 评级 | 合理价值 \n（元 / 股） | EPS( \n2024E | 元 ) \n2025E | 2024E | PE(x) \n2025E | EV/EBITDA(x) \n2024E | \n2025E | ROE(%) \n2024E | 2025E | | 航发动力 | 600893.SH | CN ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The tax exemption policy for cultural enterprises has been extended until December 31, 2027, significantly improving the cash flow and profitability of state-owned publishing companies [12][89] - The main business of educational publishing companies is expected to maintain steady growth in the short to medium term, despite a decline in profits in the first three quarters of 2024 due to increased corporate income tax payments [20][29] - The application of AI technology in the publishing industry is being implemented across various processes, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [21][121] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation, and Central Propaganda Department announced that operating cultural enterprises converted into companies will be exempt from corporate income tax until December 31, 2027 [25][50] - This policy is expected to lower cash outflow forecasts for state-owned publishing companies from 2024 to 2027, as many companies previously faced effective tax rates between 20%-30% [52][89] Educational Publishing Growth - Educational publishing companies are projected to maintain steady growth until 2027, with a focus on adapting to demographic changes and regulatory environments [20][29] - The decline in K12 student numbers in most provinces is anticipated to begin around 2025, but certain provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong are expected to show resilience due to population inflows [29][59] AI Technology Integration - AI technology is being integrated into various aspects of the publishing process, including content planning, design, and marketing, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [21][121] - Companies are launching AI-driven educational products, such as smart reading and AI-assisted tutoring, to meet evolving educational needs [115][116] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned publishing companies with high dividend yields or potential for dividend increases, such as Wanshin Media, Zhejiang Publishing, and Phoenix Media [79][89] - Companies with strong AI applications in education, like Southern Media and Wanshin Media, are also highlighted for their growth potential [89]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the context suggests a positive outlook for lithium extraction from salt lakes, indicating potential investment opportunities. Core Insights - The report highlights the steady development of lithium extraction from salt lakes in China, particularly in Qinghai and Tibet, with significant projects underway and expected to contribute to increased lithium supply and price stabilization [32][46]. - The establishment of the China Salt Lake Group aims to consolidate resources and enhance the development of a world-class salt lake industry base in Qinghai, with a target output value of 340 billion yuan by 2025 [66]. - The demand for lithium is projected to grow significantly due to the increasing production of electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with expectations of a robust market through 2025 [40][60]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Lithium Price and Demand - The report anticipates an upward shift in lithium price centers due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with a projected price range of 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton by 2025 [62][86]. - The demand for lithium is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the automotive sector and energy storage applications, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle sales in China [41][79]. Section 2: Development of Salt Lake Lithium Extraction - Qinghai's salt lake projects are progressing, with the establishment of the China Salt Lake Group to integrate resources and enhance production capabilities [32][66]. - In Tibet, the Zabuye salt lake has commenced trial production, while other projects are in various stages of development, indicating a gradual ramp-up in production capacity [32][70]. Section 3: Technology and Suppliers - Companies with capabilities in adsorption and membrane technology are highlighted as key players in the lithium extraction process, with several firms securing significant contracts for supply [46][47]. - Notable companies include Jiuwu High-Tech, which has won multiple contracts for its core technology, and Blue Sky Technology, which has established a strong presence in the salt lake lithium extraction market [46][47].

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction and decoration industry as "Buy" [18] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the management mechanism for special bonds, expanding the scope of fund allocation and usage for project capital [5][43] - It highlights the establishment of the Low Altitude Economy Development Office, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of development strategies and promote infrastructure construction in the low-altitude economy sector [72] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas and regions, particularly recommending investment in nuclear power engineering, water conservancy, urban renewal, and the ice and snow economy [18][74] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction and decoration industry has seen a decline, with a reported drop of 1.5% in the week ending December 27, 2024 [73] - The report notes that the issuance of special bonds for 2024 reached 4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while net financing decreased by 6.1% [74] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises with strong performance in high-demand areas, particularly in nuclear power and urban renewal projects [18][74] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Nuclear Engineering, China Communications Construction, and China Electric Power Construction [18][74] Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed financial analysis of key companies in the industry, including their latest closing prices, target values, and earnings per share projections for 2024 and 2025 [20] - For instance, China State Construction's latest closing price is 6.04 yuan, with a target value of 7.05 yuan, indicating a potential upside [20] Policy Developments - The report discusses recent policy changes, including the replacement of the "operating cash ratio" with the "operating revenue collection rate" as part of the new evaluation system for state-owned enterprises [39][60] - It also outlines the government's focus on enhancing the efficiency of special bond usage and ensuring that funds are directed towards high-quality projects [62][63]