[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/机械工业/其他专用机械 证券研究报告 景业智能（688290）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 20 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 20 日收盘价（元）] | 61.61 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 24.57-74.50 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 102/61 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 6296/3748 | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -43.62% -22.62% -1.62% 19.38% 40.38% 61.38% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 景业智能 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅（%） | 13.4 | 47.2 | 45.4 | | 相对涨幅（%） | 12.2 | 43.4 | 44.2 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with both organic and external growth strategies being effectively implemented [5] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 13,074 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 853.74 million HKD, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 42.6% [6] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in both import and export of tobacco products, with notable growth in various segments [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 11,836.22 million HKD, Net Profit of 598.77 million HKD - 2024: Revenue of 13,074.24 million HKD, Net Profit of 853.74 million HKD - 2025E: Revenue of 14,590.45 million HKD, Net Profit of 965.40 million HKD - 2026E: Revenue of 15,989.09 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,124.04 million HKD - 2027E: Revenue of 17,346.28 million HKD, Net Profit of 1,287.66 million HKD [6][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to grow from 1.23 HKD in 2024 to 1.86 HKD by 2027 [10] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.54% in 2024 to 11.59% in 2027, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [10] Business Segment Performance - Import Business: - Revenue from tobacco leaf imports is projected to be 8,254.25 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.17% [9] - Export Business: - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach 2,061.54 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 24.78% [9] - Cigarette export revenue is forecasted at 1,573.64 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 30.19% [9] - New Tobacco Products: - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected to be 135.18 million HKD in 2024, with a growth rate of 4.00% [9] Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 28.00 to 29.40 HKD for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 to 21 times [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of $4.28 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of $62 million, up 68% year-on-year [6]. - North America showed signs of profit recovery, with an EBITDA margin of 8.1%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the Asia-Pacific region's revenue grew by 10% [6]. - The company has secured multiple cutting-edge technology contracts, including steer-by-wire and rear-wheel steering systems, which are expected to enhance market expansion [6]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $4.48 billion, $4.76 billion, and $5.11 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 6.2%, and 7.5% [7][9]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are $147 million, $169 million, and $193 million, reflecting significant growth rates of 138.3%, 14.9%, and 14.0% respectively [9]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 10.5% in 2024 to 12.6% by 2027 [7]. Regional Performance - North America is projected to generate revenues of $2.24 billion in 2025, with a modest growth rate of 2% [7]. - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to see revenues rise to $1.50 billion in 2025, maintaining a robust growth rate of 12% [7]. - The Europe, Central Asia, and South America region is forecasted to have revenues of $732 million in 2025, with a slight growth of 2% [7]. Valuation and Price Target - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15-17x for 2025, leading to a fair value range of HKD 6.84 to HKD 7.75 [6][8]. - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is estimated at 1.0-1.2x for 2025, corresponding to a fair value range of HKD 13.92 to HKD 16.70 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of electric bicycle motors and related electrical systems, with a strong capability in providing complete solutions for various types of electric bicycles [9] - The company is expected to face a decline in profit for 2024 due to geopolitical conflicts and inflation affecting overseas demand, with a projected net profit of 50-65 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.16%-60.89% [9] - Despite short-term challenges, the electric bicycle market is expected to recover in the long term, particularly in the U.S. where government incentives are likely to stimulate growth [9] - The company is committed to market responsiveness and continuous product innovation, launching new technologies and products to enhance user experience [9] - Profit forecasts indicate a recovery in net profit for 2025, with an expected increase of 97.8% year-on-year [9] Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.648 billion yuan, with a decline of 42.2% year-on-year, followed by a recovery to 1.539 billion yuan in 2025 [8][12] - Net profit is expected to be 128 million yuan in 2023, dropping to 58 million yuan in 2024, and recovering to 115 million yuan in 2025 [8][12] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve from 26.1% in 2024 to 30.8% in 2026 [12][13] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 and 2025 is projected at 126.3 and 63.9 respectively, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 2.59 and 2.55 [9][12] Business Segments - Electric bicycle motor sales are expected to decline by 45.66% in 2023 but recover with a growth rate of 30.63% in 2025 [12] - The integrated wheel motor segment is projected to remain stable with a slight decline of 2.15% annually [12] - The battery segment is expected to see a recovery with a growth rate of 20% in 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][22][23] Core Insights - The company is experiencing orderly business expansion, with a significant increase in non-property transaction services, which accounted for 34% of total net income in 2024, up 9.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][8][14] - The total transaction volume for 2024 reached 33,494 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, while net income was 935 million, reflecting a 20.2% increase [6][7][12] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 103.50 billion, with a net profit of 56.97 billion, leading to a valuation range of 62.87-71.44 RMB, equivalent to 68.33-77.65 HKD per share [22][23] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's total revenue was 93,457 million, a 20.2% increase from 2023, while net profit was 4,065 million, down 30.9% year-on-year [5][12][27] - The gross profit margin decreased from 28% in 2023 to 25% in 2024, primarily due to a decline in the contribution margin from the existing housing business [11][27] - The company has implemented a share repurchase plan, spending approximately 7.16 billion USD in 2024, which represents about 3.89% of the total shares issued at the end of 2023 [6][8] Business Segment Performance - The existing housing business generated net income of 28.2 billion in 2024, remaining stable compared to 2023, while the total transaction volume increased by 10.8% to 22,465 billion [6][14] - The new housing business saw net income rise to 33.7 billion, a 10.1% increase, despite a 3.3% decline in total transaction volume [17][21] - The home decoration and furniture business achieved net income of 14.8 billion, a 36.1% increase, driven by synergies with property transactions [18][21] User and Store Metrics - By the end of 2024, the company had 51,573 stores, a 17.7% increase year-on-year, with active agents numbering 499,937, up 16.9% [13][21] - The average monthly active user count remained stable at 43.2 million, indicating consistent user engagement [13][21]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/医药与健康护理/生物科技 证券研究报告 药明康德（603259）公司年报点评 2025 年 03 月 20 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 19日收盘价（元）] | 70.00 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 36.36-70.68 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 2888/2501 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元 | 202159/202159 | 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《药明康德 2024 半年报点评：经营趋势保持 稳健，在手订单快速增长》2024.08.21 《药明康德 2023 年报点评：全年收入利润稳 健增长， TIDES 业 务 订 单 增 长 显 著 》 2024.03.26 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -24.91% -11.91% 1.09% 14.09% 27.09% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 药明康德 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/造纸轻工 证券研究报告 玖龙纸业（2689）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 20 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 股票数据 | 3[T月ab19le日_S收t盘oc价k(I港nf元o]) | 3.46 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 4.10-7.35 | | 总股本（百万股） | 4692 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 16235 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 2.7 12.0 7.8 相对涨幅（%） -5.3 -14.5 -17.6 资料来源：海通证券研究所 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 包装纸行业龙头，产能持续扩张 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 分析师:郭庆龙 分析师:王文杰 Tel:(021)23185637 Email:wwj14034@haitong.com 证书:S0850523020002 | 主要财务数据及预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic packaging paper industry, with a total production capacity of approximately 8.12 million tons, ranking second in China. It has established six major paper production bases across various provinces [6][10] - The company is expected to incur losses in 2024, with a projected net profit of -364 million yuan, but profitability is anticipated to recover in 2025 with a net profit of 601 million yuan [5][10] - The average price of boxboard paper is expected to recover in 2025, which will positively impact profitability as demand gradually rebounds [6][10] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 34,014 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 29,333 million yuan in 2023, followed by a recovery to 30,792 million yuan in 2024 and further growth to 33,370 million yuan in 2025 [6][10] - The net profit is projected to be -2,256 million yuan in 2022, recovering to 156 million yuan in 2023, and reaching 601 million yuan in 2025 [6][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be -0.41 yuan in 2022, improving to 0.03 yuan in 2023, and reaching 0.11 yuan in 2025 [6][10] Business Segments - The raw paper segment is expected to see sales revenue of 19,241.35 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -11.75%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [9] - The paper products segment is projected to generate sales revenue of 7,079.94 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -7.78%, also expected to improve in the following years [9] Valuation - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is projected to be between 17 to 18 times, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 1.87 to 1.98 yuan per share [6][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company aims to become a leader in synthetic biology, with a focus on expanding its market share in amino acids and optimizing its product offerings [5][7] - The company has implemented various strategies to consolidate its leading position in the industry, including international expansion and digital transformation initiatives [7][10] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported a revenue of 250.69 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.69% year-on-year, with a net profit of 27.40 billion yuan, down 13.85% year-on-year [7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in net profit, with a 98.95% quarter-on-quarter rise, attributed to strong performance in core products [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 280.88 billion yuan, 29.90 billion yuan, and 31.60 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 32.00 billion yuan, 34.56 billion yuan, and 37.28 billion yuan [6][10] Business Segments - The animal nutrition segment showed a significant increase in sales volume, particularly in products like threonine, which saw a 25.31% increase year-on-year [7] - The food flavor optimization products segment experienced a decline in both production and sales volume, with revenues dropping by 19.19% year-on-year [7] - The human medical amino acids segment also faced challenges, with a revenue decrease of 15.35% year-on-year [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively pursuing an internationalization strategy through acquisitions and expanding its production capacity to enhance operational efficiency [7][10] - The implementation of a Manufacturing Execution System (MES) is aimed at improving transparency and efficiency in production processes [7] Valuation - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range for the company at 11.20 to 13.44 yuan per share based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10-12 times for 2025 [7][11]

[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观快报点评 2025 年 03 月 20 日 相关研究 ——美联储 3 月议息会议点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 分析师:梁中华 Tel:(021)23219820 Email:lzh13508@haitong.com 证书:S0850520120001 分析师:李俊 Tel:(021)23154149 Email:lj13766@haitong.com 证书: S0850521090002 维持利率，放缓缩表 [Table_AuthorInfo] [Table_ReportInfo] 《财政发力：M1、M2 回升——2024 年 12 月金融数据点评》2025.01.14 《出口韧性的三大特征 ——2024 年外 贸数据点评》2025.01.13 《就业稳健，降息预期降温 ——2024 年 12 月美国非农数据点评》2025.01.11 利率不变，放缓缩表。美联储 3 月 FOMC 会议将联邦基金利率区间维持在 4.25%-4.50%。从 4 月开始，将每个 ...