Group 1: LPR Rates and Economic Context - The 1-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.35%, and the 5-year LPR is also steady at 3.85% as of September 20, 2024[1] - The recent expectation for domestic interest rate cuts has increased following a 50 basis point reduction by the Federal Reserve on September 19, 2024[1] - The current economic environment shows a steady but weak trend, influenced by insufficient effective demand and other factors, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy adjustments[1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) previously lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points in July, which has led to a wait-and-see period for policy effects[1] - The net interest margin for banks has narrowed to 1.54%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous year, indicating constraints on further rate cuts[1] - A potential reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 10 to 20 basis points is anticipated in the fourth quarter, which could lead to a corresponding decrease in LPR[2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The likelihood of a rate cut in the fourth quarter is supported by the need to achieve a 5.0% economic growth target and to manage risks in key sectors like real estate[2] - Recent regulatory changes and banks' initiatives to lower deposit rates may help alleviate pressure on net interest margins, encouraging LPR adjustments[2] - The PBOC aims to improve the quality of LPR quotes to better reflect actual loan market rates, which may allow for LPR adjustments independent of policy rate changes[2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.00%, a decrease of 50 basis points[1] - This marks the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began in March 2022, with one FOMC member voting against the 50 basis point cut, suggesting a preference for a 25 basis point reduction[1] - The updated dot plot indicates a significant downward revision in rate expectations, with the median rate forecast for this year dropping from 5.125% to 4.375%[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed slightly lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points, while maintaining projections for the following two years[1] - Unemployment rate expectations were raised by 0.4 percentage points for this year and by 0.2 percentage points for the next two years[1] - PCE inflation expectations were reduced by 0.3 percentage points for this year and 0.2 percentage points for next year, indicating a more favorable inflation outlook[1] Group 3: Rationale for Rate Cut - The 50 basis point cut is seen as a preemptive measure to prevent a rapid cooling of the labor market amid rising unemployment rates[2] - Recent labor market data shows a significant decline in job creation, with the average monthly increase in private sector jobs dropping to 96,000 from 185,000 earlier in the year[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, nearing a critical threshold that could signal an economic downturn[2] Group 4: Inflation Trends - Core CPI has shown a steady decline, with the year-on-year growth rate falling from 3.9% at the beginning of the year to 3.2% in August[3] - The breadth and stickiness of inflation are decreasing, as indicated by the Cleveland Fed's trimmed mean CPI and the Atlanta Fed's sticky CPI metrics[3] - The Fed's confidence in achieving inflation targets has increased, allowing for a more aggressive rate cut without immediate inflationary concerns[3] Group 5: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement two additional 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year, totaling a 100 basis point reduction, aligning with the dot plot guidance[4] - The pace and magnitude of future rate cuts remain uncertain, influenced by economic resilience and inflation trends[4] - The Fed's flexible approach suggests that future rate adjustments will be data-driven, with no preset path for rate changes[5]

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value grew by 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.1% in July, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.1% year-on-year in August, a decrease from 2.7% in July, reflecting weak consumer demand[1] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.4% from January to August, down from 3.6% previously[1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment shows a "strong supply, weak demand" characteristic, with both supply and demand sides experiencing a downward trend[2] - The official manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.1 in August, indicating contraction for four consecutive months[2] Policy Implications - The central bank may implement further counter-cyclical adjustments, including potential interest rate cuts and increased fiscal measures to stimulate demand[2] - Policies to support the real estate sector, such as lowering existing mortgage rates, are crucial for reversing market expectations[2] Industrial Production Insights - The industrial production growth rate is expected to remain strong compared to investment and consumption, driven by robust export demand and equipment upgrades[3] - Year-to-date, industrial added value has increased by 5.8%, with manufacturing value added growing by 6.1%[3] Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 86.0, down for four consecutive months[5] - The impact of early mortgage repayments is significant, with an estimated annualized repayment amount of approximately 4.6 trillion yuan, equivalent to 9.8% of the total retail sales[6] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment growth has been declining since April, with infrastructure investment particularly affected by extreme weather conditions[9] - Manufacturing investment remains high, with a year-to-date growth of 9.1%, supported by policy measures and strong demand for equipment updates[10] Real Estate Sector Challenges - Real estate investment fell by 10.2% year-on-year from January to August, with a slight narrowing of the decline in August compared to July[12] - The lack of strong stimulus measures for the real estate sector suggests continued downward pressure on investment in the near term[12]

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 菜价快速上涨推高 8 月 CPI 涨幅，需求偏弱导致 | PPI 同比跌幅再度扩大 | 事件：9 月 9 日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，2024 年 8 月 CPI 同比为 0.6%，上月为 0.5%；8 月 PPI 同比为-1.8%，上月为-0.8%。 基本观点： 主要受高温多雨天气带动蔬菜价格快速上涨影响，8 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.6%，涨幅比上个月小幅扩大 0.1 个百分点，符合市场普遍预期。不过，8 月原油等国际大宗商品价格下行，国内工业消费品价格环比 由正转负，旅游出行等服务价格也有走弱，核心 CPI 同比低位下行，低通胀局面还在延续。背后的主要原 因是在各类商品和服务供应稳定的背景下，居民消费需求不振，菜价的短期冲高无法改变这一局面。这意 味着在安排 1500 亿超长期特别国债资金支持耐用消费品以旧换新之后，下一步宏观政策在促消费方面还 有 ...

乐力金城国际信用评估有限公司 东方金诚宏观研究 8 月金融总量指标延续低位，后期货币政策将在稳增长方向持续发力 -2024 年 8 月金融数据点评 李晓峰 冯琳 王青 事件:2024年9月13日,央行公布的数据显示,2024年8月新增人民币贷款 9000亿,同比少增 4600 亿;8月新增社会融资规模为 30298 亿,同比少增 981 亿。8 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 6.3%，增 速与上月末持平;狭义货币(M1)同比下降7.3%,降幅较上月末扩大 0.7个百分点。 基本观点: 整体上看，受信贷需求偏低、金融"挤水分"效应影响,8月信贷数据延续低位运行,政府债券融资 偏强,继续对新增社融形成重要支撑。在监管层"淡化对数量目标的关注"的政策取向下，当前的重点是 通过结构性货币政策等政策工具强化对实体经济的精准滴灌，同时着力引导社会融资成本稳中有降，以此 作为加大金融对实体经济支持力度的主要发力点。 展望未来，9月信贷、社融等金融总量指标还将低位运行。接下来要重点关注金融资源对科技创新和 小微企业的支持力度,这对后期经济增速和就业状况有重要影响。不过,伴随稳增长政策发力,金融"挤 水分"效应弱化，四季度金 ...

Price Trends - On September 6, the Shanghai gold futures price fell by 0.41% to 573.68 CNY/g compared to the previous week[1] - COMEX gold futures price decreased by 0.36% to 2526.80 USD/oz[2] - Gold T+D spot price slightly declined by 0.14% to 572.60 CNY/g, while London gold spot price dropped by 0.24% to 2497.09 USD/oz[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. August ISM manufacturing index continued to decline, indicating ongoing economic concerns, with a reading of 47.2, below the expected 47.5[15] - August non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000, below the expected 165,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%[17] - The ADP employment report showed an increase of only 99,000 jobs in August, the lowest since January 2021[15] Market Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September have become more divided, with a 55% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 45% chance of a 50 basis point cut[15] - The uncertainty surrounding the extent of the rate cut may lead to increased volatility in gold prices[1] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts involving Israel and Russia, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold[1] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has increased, reflecting heightened market uncertainty[27] Market Dynamics - The international gold basis rose by 7.90 USD/oz to 22.45 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis fell by 2.00 CNY/g to -4.2 CNY/g[5] - The gold-to-silver ratio increased, indicating stronger demand for gold relative to silver due to its safe-haven status[5]

1 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 8 | 东方金诚宏观研究 \n 月出口超预期，进口增速较快回落 ——2024 年 8 月贸易数据解读 | | | 研究发展部总监 冯琳 | 根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024 年 8 月出口额同比增长 8.7%，7 月同比增长 7.0%；8 月进口额同比增长 0.5%，7 月同比增长 7.2%。 一、主要受外需偏强，特别是 8 月我国对欧盟、日本和韩国出口增速加快带动，8 月我国整体出口 额同比增速上升，创年内新高。值得注意的是，7 月欧盟对华加征新能源汽车进口关税落地，但 8 月我 国汽车出口增速显著加快。不过，8 月摩根大通全球制造业 PMI 指数降至 49.5%，连续两个月处于收缩 区间，预示后期我国出口增速可能会趋势性回落。 以人民币计价，8 月进、出口额同比增速分别为 0%和 8.4%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要源于过 去一年中人民币对美元有所升值。这也是以美元计价的进、出 ...

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |----------------------|----------------------------------------| | | | | 8 月官方制造业 PMI | 指数低位下行，稳增长政策有望进一步加码 | | | ———— 2024 年 8 月 PMI 数据点评 | | | | | | 王青 闫骏 冯琳 | 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2024 年 8 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.1%，比 上月下降 0.3 个百分点；8 月，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.3%，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点，其中，建 筑业商务活动指数为 50.6%，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 50.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个 百分点；8 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。 8 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 8 月制造业供需两端同步走弱，是制造业 PMI 指数在收缩区间进一步下行、不及市场预期的主要原 因。这一方面是受高温多雨天气及部分行业处于生产淡季的短期因素影响，也表明受房地产行业持续 调 ...

1 东方金诚宏观研究 8 月 LPR 报价不变符合市场预期，后期有下调空间 王青李晓峰冯琳 事件： 2024 年 8 月 20 日，全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版 LPR 报价：1 年期品种报 3.35%， 上月为 3.35%；5 年期以上品种报 3.85%，上月为 3.85%。 解读如下： 一、上月两个期限品种 LPR 报价刚刚分别下调 10 个基点，加之本次报价前央行主要政 策利率（7 天期逆回购利率）保持稳定，因此 8 月两个期限品种 LPR 报价不变符合市场普遍 预期。背后是上月 LPR 报价下调后，当前的重点是引导企业和居民信贷利率跟进下调；与此 同时，考虑到现阶段宏观经济总体上保持着回升向好势头，各类风险得到有效控制，货币政 策有条件坚持稳健基调，连续下调政策利率并引导 LPR 报价跟进连续下调的必要性不大。 需要指出的是，央行在 8 月 9 日发布的《2024 年第二季度货币政策执行报告》中明确， "LPR 报价转向更多参考央行短期政策利率，由短及长的利率传导关系在逐步理顺"。这意 味着央行 7 天期逆回购利率已明确为主要政策利率，并取代 MLF 成为 LPR 报价的定价基础。 货币政策传导渠道 ...

1 楼市仍处调整阶段 有待政策持续呵护 ——2024 年 7 月房地产行业运行情况报告 分析师 唐晓琳 闫骏 核心观点： 销售端：1-7 月全国商品房销售面积、销售额同比降幅较前值略有收窄，但单月表现不佳，同比降 幅再度扩大。价格方面，70 城二手住宅价格和新房住宅价格环比保持下跌趋势，跌幅较前值无明 显变化。整体来看，当前楼市仍处于调整阶段。 投资端：7 月投资端下行压力不减，房地产开发投资完成额累计降幅有所扩大。开工方面，新开工、 施工和竣工环比降幅略有收窄，但整体仍处下降区间，有待进一步修复；土地市场方面，7 月成交 土地面积季节性回落，但同比降幅较上月有所收窄，二线城市仍是土地市场成交主力，一线城市 成交情况冷热不均，北京、上海热门地块竞争激烈，三线城市土地楼面均价环比再度下降。 高频数据显示，8 月 1-19 日 30 大中城市日均商品房成交套数为 2016 套，同比下降 18.2%，楼市 下行压力仍然较大。8 月 15 日，国家统计局新闻发言人刘爱华在国新办新闻发布会上表示，7 月 份我国部分房地产相关指标降幅继续收窄，但同时也要看到，多数房地产指标仍处于下降之中， 房地产市场仍处于调整中。下阶段 ...