LPR 报价连续 9 个月不变，央行将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作 【内容摘要】 2 月 24 日，1 年期 LPR 和 5 年期 LPR 报价保持不变，央行公告今日开展 6000 亿 元 MLF 操作；适逢税期，叠加逆回购大额净回笼，资金面均衡中略显收敛；春节后债市交易清 淡，权益市场开门红带动转债市场主要指数集体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；当日，特朗普 10% "全球关税"正式生效，除 2 年期美债保持不变，其余各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲 经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【LPR 连续九个月"按兵不动"，年内仍存下行空间】2 月 24 日，新一期贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）出炉。央行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2 月 24 日，1 年期 LPR 为 3.0%，5 年 期以上 LPR 为 3.5%。两个期限 LPR 均与上月持平，符合市场预期。2 月份以来，政策利率（7 天期逆回购操作利率）一直保持稳定，意味着 2 月份 LPR 的定价基础没有发生变化，已在很大 程度上预示当月 LPR 会保持不变。同时，业界普遍认为，当前报价行也缺乏主动下调 LPR 报价 ...

——2026 年 1 月信用利差月报 作者 分析师 姚宇彤 2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 配置盘支撑下，1 月信用利差全线收窄 2026 年 1 月，债市整体偏强震荡：年初至中旬股市和商品市场表现强劲， 对债市形成压制；下旬，受获利盘出逃、融资保证金升高等因素影响，权益 市场情绪降温，加之公募基金费率新规正式稿温和落地，缓解债基赎回担忧， 以及央行结构性货币政策工具降息、配置型机构大力买入等因素支撑，债市 呈现修复行情。由于信用债相对利率债更具票息优势，银行、保险"开门红" 增加信用债配置需求，以及摊余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债，1 月 信用债表现好于利率债，信用利差全线收窄。 核心观点 ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 部门执行总监 于丽峰 部门执行总监 冯琳 1 月，债券市场整体偏强震荡，在信用债相对利率债更具票息 优势，银行、保险"开门红"增加信用债配置需求，以及摊 余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债等因素带动下，信用 债表现好于利率债，信用利差全线收窄。目前，短久期信用 债利差普遍已压缩至历史低位，中长久期部分品种仍有一定 的利差空间，且考虑到摊余债基开放对 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 春节错期带动 1 月 CPI 涨幅回落，PPI 降幅继续收窄 ——2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2026 年 1 月，CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，上月为上涨 0.8%，2025 年 CPI 累计同比为 0.0%；1 月 PPI 同比下降 1.4%，上月为下降 1.9%，2025 年累计同比下降 2.6%。 基本观点：1 月物价数据走势和去年 12 月相比出现了明显变化，由去年 12 月的 CPI 同比涨幅扩大、 PPI 降幅收窄，转变为 CPI 同比涨幅显著回落、PPI 降幅继续收窄。但总体上看，物价温和回升的势头并 没有发生根本变化。2025 年春节落在 1 月，导致上年同期 CPI 基数大幅抬高，是 2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比涨 幅显著回落的主要原因。此外，1 月蔬菜供应增加，价格转向回落，带动食品价格同比由涨转跌，也对整 体 CPI 走势有一定影响。1 月国际金价加快上涨，年内第一批国补资金下达，对家电、汽车等耐用消费品 价格的支撑作用增强，这是当月 CPI 环比保持上升势头的主要原因。1 月 PPI 环比加速上涨，主因反内卷 及需求增加带动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the real estate market continued to adjust, with an accelerated decline in the second half of the year. The prices of second - hand and new houses decreased, and the sales area and investment also declined. The financing environment of real - estate enterprises did not improve substantially, but debt restructuring made progress [4]. - In 2026, real estate policies will remain marginally loose. Demand - side policies aim to lower actual mortgage rates, and supply - side policies focus on controlling increments and reducing inventories to optimize the supply - demand structure. The market will likely continue to adjust, but the adjustment amplitude will narrow. Sales may stop falling and stabilize if mortgage rates can be effectively lowered, and investment decline will also narrow [5]. - In 2026, the bond repayment pressure of state - owned real - estate enterprises is mainly concentrated in the domestic bond market and has decreased compared to previous years. The bond maturity volume of private real - estate enterprises has significantly declined, and the overall repayment pressure is low. The credit risk of real - estate bonds will tend to be stable, but the debt repayment situation of individual private enterprises still needs attention. Debt restructuring of real - estate enterprises will continue to accelerate [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Real Estate Policy Review - **Accelerating inventory reduction and optimizing supply structure**: Supply - side policies centered on "controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supply". "Controlling increments" involved matching land and new housing supply as needed and controlling new land use in surplus areas. In 2025, the land supply in third - tier cities contracted rapidly, and 1202.1 billion yuan of land reserve special bonds were used to acquire idle land. "Reducing inventories" aimed to clear market inventories and ensure people's livelihoods through measures such as converting existing commercial housing into affordable housing and urban village renovation. "Optimizing supply" promoted the upgrading of housing quality with the construction of "good houses" [9][11][12]. - **Strengthening the implementation of financing support for housing delivery**: The focus of the "housing delivery guarantee" work shifted from "mechanism establishment" to "financing implementation". By October 2025, the approved loan amount for "whitelist" projects exceeded 7 trillion yuan, but there were challenges such as intensified project qualification differentiation and a time lag between approval and loan disbursement [15]. - **Marginal relaxation of demand - side policies**: Demand - side policies continued to be refined to reduce the cost of home - buying and release rigid and improved housing demand. In 2025, the purchase restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen were significantly relaxed, the down - payment ratio was lowered, the provident fund loan interest rate was reduced, and the loan amount was increased [16]. 3.2 2025 Real Estate Market Operation - **Price performance**: Second - hand house prices continued to fall, with the decline first narrowing slightly and then widening significantly. In December, the year - on - year decline in 70 - city second - hand house prices was 6.1%, and first - tier cities showed a "catch - up decline" feature. New house prices also continued to fall, with a 3.0% year - on - year decline in 70 - city new commercial housing prices in December [21][24]. - **Sales performance**: The real - estate sales continued to be deeply adjusted in 2025. The annual commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%, and the sales volume was 8393.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%. The market activity was low, and the daily average transaction volume in 30 cities was weak [25][30]. - **Investment performance**: Real - estate development investment accelerated its decline in 2025, with the annual investment completion amount of 8278.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sources of development funds decreased by 13.4% year - on - year. New construction, construction, and completion areas all decreased. The land market was cold, with a 14.2% year - on - year decrease in the planned construction area of residential land in 100 large and medium - sized cities [35][36][42]. 3.3 2025 Real - Estate Bond Market Performance - **Issuance and net financing**: In 2025, the total issuance of domestic and overseas real - estate bonds was 796.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 93.3%. The net financing gap narrowed significantly. Domestic bonds: 83 real - estate enterprises issued 413 domestic real - estate bonds, with a total issuance of 360.95 billion yuan, and the net financing gap was 62.96 billion yuan. Overseas bonds: 74 overseas real - estate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 61.8 billion US dollars, and the net financing turned positive [49][50][60]. - **Credit risk evolution**: From 2021 to 2025, 65 domestic and overseas bond default and extension entities were added, with 2 in 2025. The event of Vanke's bond extension in 2025 had a significant impact on the market, affecting market confidence, financing environment, and industry differentiation [62][70]. - **Debt resolution of troubled real - estate enterprises**: Since 2024, the debt - resolution strategy has shifted to "substantial debt reduction + structural optimization". In 2025, investors became more accepting of debt reduction, and the debt - resolution approach changed from partial and scattered disposal to overall restructuring. Debt - resolution tools became more diversified. For example, CIFI Group's debt restructuring verified the feasibility of the "substantial debt reduction" plan [72][73][74]. - **Secondary - market price changes and spread fluctuations**: In 2025, the number of abnormal price movements in the secondary market of real - estate bonds decreased. The spread of real - estate bonds showed a trend of "oscillating downward and rising at the end of the year", and was more affected by the overall credit - bond market [77][80]. 3.4 2026 Real Estate Industry and Real - Estate Bond Market Outlook - **Policy outlook**: In 2026, real - estate policies will remain marginally loose. Demand - side policies will focus on guiding the actual mortgage rate to decline, and supply - side policies will continue to control increments and reduce inventories. However, the short - term stimulus policies will not be significantly stronger than in 2025 [87]. - **Market outlook**: The real - estate market will likely continue to adjust in 2026, but the adjustment amplitude will narrow. If the actual mortgage rate can be effectively lowered, the sales may stop falling and stabilize, and the investment decline will also narrow [97]. - **Credit risk outlook**: In 2026, the total maturity scale of domestic and overseas real - estate bonds is 596.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The debt repayment pressure of state - owned real - estate enterprises has decreased, and that of private real - estate enterprises is low. The overall credit risk of the real - estate industry will tend to be stable, but the debt repayment of individual private enterprises needs attention [99]. - **Debt - resolution path outlook**: Debt restructuring through substantial debt reduction and diversified innovative debt tools will continue to accelerate in 2026. The market trend and the transformation and development of real - estate enterprises will be the two key variables affecting the debt - resolution process [103].

东方金诚宏观研究 2026 年 2 月 LPR 报价保持不变，二季度有望下调 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 2026 年 2 月 24 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版 LPR 报价：1 年 期品种报 3.0%，上月为 3.0%；5 年期以上品种报 3.5%，上月为 3.5%。 解读： 2 月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价保持不变，符合市场预期，有两个直接原因：首先，2 月以 来政策利率（央行 7 天期逆回购利率）保持稳定，意味着 2 月 LPR 报价的定价基础没有发生 变化，已在很大程度上预示当月 LPR 报价会保持不动。另外，尽管受央行在春节前较大规模 投放流动性等影响，近期包括 1 年期商业银行（AAA 级）同业存单到期收益率在内的主要中 长端市场利率略有下行，但最新数据显示，2025 年四季度末商业银行净息差持续处于 1.42% 历史最低位，当前报价行缺乏主动下调 LPR 报价加点的动力。 我们认为，2025 年 6 月以来 LPR 报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受出口持续偏 强、以高技术制造业为代表的新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，2025 年宏观经济顶住外部经 贸波动压力及国内房地产市场调 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 开年信贷季节性大规模投放，金融数据走势较为平稳 事件：2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行公布的数据显示，2026 年 1 月新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿，同比少增 4200 亿；1 月新增社会融资规模为 7.22 万亿，同比多增 1662 亿。1 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 9.0%， 增速较上月末加快 0.5 个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比增长 4.9%，增速较上月末加快 1.1 个百分点。 基本观点： 总体上看，1 月金融数据比较平稳。其中，1 月贷款季节性大规模投放，同比出现较大幅度少增，主 要原因是当前投资和消费较弱，企业和居民贷款需求仍显乏力，同时，1 月各类稳增长政策落地效果尚不 明显，对贷款需求的撬动和提振作用仍较为有限。1 月社融同比实现多增，主要受政府债券融资拉动，当 月政府债券融资同比较大幅度多增，体现了宏观政策靠前发力、财政资金尽可能提前安排的政策导向。1 月末 M2 增速上行，主要源于非银存款连续大幅同比多增，当前 M2 增速持续处于较高水平。1 月末 M1 增速 回升，背后是上年同期基数较低，前期《保障中小企业款项支付条例》实施对 M1 增速也有一定推升作用 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On February 6, the overall capital situation was loose, with major repurchase rates declining; the bond market continued its positive trend; the main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, and most convertible bond issues rose; yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally increased, and the yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [2] Summary by Directory I. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang chaired the tenth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing promoting effective investment, using various funds and tools, and promoting major projects in key areas [4] - As of the end of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the 6th consecutive month to $3399.1 billion, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months to 74.19 million ounces. The increase in foreign exchange reserves was due to factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes [5] - Eight departments jointly re - emphasized the ban on virtual currency in China and put forward policy requirements for related businesses [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a regulatory guideline for the overseas issuance of asset - backed security tokens of domestic assets to prevent speculation risks [6][7] - The first meeting of the China - UK Financial Working Group was held in Beijing, reaching many practical cooperation results [7] (2) International News - In February 2026, the preliminary reading of the U.S. consumer confidence index was 57.3, higher than the January final value. The short - term inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, while the long - term inflation expectation rose slightly to 3.4% [8] - The U.S. and India reached a temporary trade framework. The U.S. will impose a 18% tariff on Indian goods, and India will purchase $500 billion of U.S. products in five years [9] - On February 6, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI March crude oil futures up 0.41% and Brent April crude oil futures up 0.74%. COMEX gold futures rose 1.96%. The NYMEX natural gas price fell 3.16% [10] II. Capital Situation (1) Open Market Operations - On February 6, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations of 31.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations of 300 billion yuan. With 477.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital withdrawal was 146 billion yuan [12] (2) Capital Interest Rates - On February 6, the capital situation was loose, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 4.41bp to 1.275%, and DR007 dropped 2.08bp to 1.461% [13] III. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - rate Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On February 6, the bond market continued its positive trend. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 dropped 0.60bp to 1.8020%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250220 dropped 1.55bp to 1.9625% [15] - Bond Tendering Situation: The 3 - year 25Jinchujin13 (Increment 10), 1 - year 26Fuxiguozhai01 (Re - issue), and 30 - year 26Fuxiguozhai02 (Re - issue) were issued, with their respective issuance scales, winning bid yields, full - field multiples, and marginal multiples provided [16] (2) Credit Bonds - Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies: On February 6, the trading price of one industrial bond, "23Chanrong11", deviated by more than 10%, falling more than 17% [16] - Credit Bond Events: Multiple companies announced events such as debt repayment issues, mergers and reorganizations, and bond issuance cancellations [19] (3) Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On February 6, the three major A - share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.25%, 0.33%, and 0.73% respectively. The convertible bond market rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.75%, 0.56%, and 1.02% respectively [18][20] - Convertible Bond Tracking: On February 7, Shenergy Co., Ltd.'s convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange. On February 6, some convertible bonds announced adjustments to conversion prices, early redemptions, or approaching redemption conditions [24] (4) Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. Bond Market: On February 6, yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year yield rose 3bp to 3.50%, and the 10 - year yield rose 1bp to 4.22%. The 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year yield spreads narrowed by 2bp. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose 2bp to 2.34% [23][25][26] - European Bond Market: On February 6, the yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. The German, French, and Italian yields rose 1bp, the Spanish yield remained unchanged, and the British yield dropped 5bp [27] - Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds: As of the close on February 6, the prices of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds rose or fell, with details on the daily and monthly changes, credit subjects, bond balances, and yields provided [29]

央行重启 14 天期逆回购操作；资金面稳中偏松，债市整体回暖 【内容摘要】 2 月 5 日，资金面稳中偏松；债市整体回暖；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转 债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍大幅下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍 下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【市场监管总局：纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，大力激发各类经营主体活力】2 月 5 日，国 新办举行新闻发布会，介绍市场监管服务经济高质量发展情况。市场监管总局副局长、国家标 准化管理委员会主任邓志勇表示，下一步，市场监管总局将认真贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署， 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，大力激发各类经营主体活力，加快提高质量技术基础能力，有 效防范化解重点领域安全风险，努力推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，为实现"十 五五"良好开局贡献市场监管力量。 【2025 年我国服务进出口总额同比增长 7.4%】2 月 5 日，商务部发布数据显示，2025 年，我 国服务贸易稳步增长，服务进出口总额 80823.1 亿元，同比增长 7.4%。其中，出口 36267.9 亿 元，增长 14.2%；进口 44555.1 亿元，增长 2.5%；服 ...

一、债市要闻 资金面恢复宽松态势；债市窄幅震荡 【内容摘要】 2 月 4 日，资金面恢复宽松态势；债市窄幅震荡；转债市场主要指数涨跌不一， 转债个券涨跌各半；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下 行。 （一）国内要闻 【习近平同俄罗斯总统普京举行视频会晤】2 月 4 日下午，国家主席习近平在北京人民大会堂 同俄罗斯总统普京举行视频会晤。习近平强调，今年是中国"十五五"开局之年，中方将更加 积极主动扩大高水平对外开放，同包括俄罗斯在内的世界各国共享发展新机遇。今年也是中俄 战略协作伙伴关系建立 30 周年、《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》签署 25 周年和"中俄教育年"启 动之年。双方要把握历史契机，密切高层交往，加强各领域务实合作，以更深层次的战略协作 和更加积极有为的大国担当，确保中俄关系继续沿着正确轨道不断发展。 【习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话】2 月 4 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。 习近平指出，过去一年，我们保持着良好沟通，在釜山成功会晤，为中美关系领航把舵，受到 两国人民和国际社会欢迎。我高度重视中美关系。新的一年，我愿同你继续引领中美关系这艘 大船穿越风浪、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report On February 3, the overall capital market remained stable; the bond market was mainly fluctuating, with short - term bonds being weak and medium - and long - term bonds being slightly strong; the main indexes of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues increased; the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of different maturities showed divergent trends, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: On February 3, the 2026 Central No. 1 Document was released, proposing reforms in rural collective property rights, support for new rural collective economies, and measures to control village - level debt. The central bank will conduct an 800 billion yuan 3 - month term buy - out reverse repurchase operation on February 4, resulting in a net investment of 100 billion yuan. The central bank Shanghai Head Office emphasized continuous financial reform and opening - up, and promoted free - trade zone financial reform [4][5]. - **International News**: On February 3 (local time), the U.S. House of Representatives passed a government funding bill, and the partial government shutdown is expected to end. However, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security only has funds until February 13, and there is still a risk of a more limited funding shortage [7]. - **Commodities**: On February 3, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices rose. WTI March crude oil futures rose 1.72% to $63.21 per barrel, Brent April crude oil futures rose 1.56% to $67.33 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 6.94% to $4975.30 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 3.49% to $3.377 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open - Market Operations**: On February 3, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 105.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 296.5 billion yuan [10]. - **Funding Rates**: On February 3, the capital market was generally stable. DR001 decreased by 4.76bp to 1.371%, and DR007 increased by 0.66bp to 1.497%. Other funding rates also showed different degrees of change [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: On February 3, the bond market fluctuated, with short - term interest - rate bonds being weak and medium - and long - term bonds being slightly strong. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 decreased by 0.40bp to 1.8110%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250215 remained unchanged at 1.9580%. Multiple bonds were issued on the same day, with different issuance scales, winning bid yields, and multiples [14][15]. - **Credit Bonds**: On February 3, there were no credit bond transactions with a price deviation of more than 10%. Several companies had credit - related announcements, including debt repayment difficulties, litigation, debt restructuring, and issuance cancellations [16][18]. - **Convertible Bonds**: On February 3, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 1.29%, 2.19%, and 1.86% respectively. The main indexes of the convertible bond market also rose collectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 97.548 billion yuan, an increase of 12.465 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most convertible bond issues increased. Tomorrow (February 5), Haitian Convertible Bonds will start online subscriptions, and Shangtai Convertible Bonds will be listed [18][19][23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: On February 3, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of different maturities showed divergent trends. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 3.57%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp to 4.28%. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury bond (TIPS) break - even inflation rate increased by 1bp to 2.36% [22][24][25]. - **European Bond Market**: On February 3, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The 10 - year German government bond yield increased by 2bp to 2.89%, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK increased by 1bp, 1bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively [26]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on February 3, the prices of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [28].