Group 1: Credit Growth and Economic Support - In August 2025, new RMB loans increased to 590 billion, a month-on-month increase of 640 billion, but a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion[1] - The total social financing (TSF) in August was 25,693 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion, marking the first year-on-year decline in 8 months[6] - M2 growth remained stable at 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 growth accelerated to 6.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[7] Group 2: Factors Influencing Credit and Financing - The recovery in credit growth was supported by improved macroeconomic conditions, strong export resilience, and seasonal consumption peaks during summer[2] - The decline in year-on-year credit growth was primarily influenced by hidden debt replacement and external market fluctuations, alongside adjustments in the real estate market[2] - The structure of loans improved, with corporate short-term loans increasing by 260 billion, while long-term loans decreased by 200 billion year-on-year, indicating a marginal recovery in corporate credit demand[4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Monetary Policy - The current low inflation levels provide ample room for monetary policy to remain accommodative, with expectations for increased credit growth in the coming months[8] - The central bank is likely to continue implementing measures such as MLF and reverse repos to inject liquidity into the market, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in the fourth quarter[8] - Overall, the banking system's liquidity is robust, with loan growth rates significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth, indicating strong support for the real economy[5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August 2025, the CPI turned negative at -0.4%, down from 0.0% in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to August[1][2] - The significant drop in food prices, particularly vegetables, pork, and fruits, contributed to the CPI decline, with vegetable prices showing a year-on-year drop of -15.2%[3][4] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose to 0.9% in August, indicating a slight recovery in basic price levels[5][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first reduction in the decline since March[7][8] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month, ending an eight-month streak of declines, primarily due to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries[9][10] - Forecasts suggest that the PPI decline will further narrow to approximately -2.3% in September, with expectations of a reduction to below -2.0% in the fourth quarter[11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The significant weakening of the US labor market has strengthened market expectations of interest rate cuts, boosting a substantial increase in gold prices. On September 5, the Shanghai Gold main futures price rose 3.88% to 815.60 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold main futures price rose 3.52% to 3,639.80 US dollars/ounce. Spot gold prices also had significant increases [3]. - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in the week of September 8. The release of US inflation data for August is expected. As long as inflation data does not rebound significantly, it will not affect the Fed's decision to cut rates. The weak labor market, combined with the deteriorating Middle East situation, will boost gold prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On September 5, the Shanghai Gold main futures price closed at 815.60 yuan/gram, up 30.48 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold main futures price closed at 3,639.80 US dollars/ounce, up 123.70 US dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price closed at 811.65 yuan/gram, up 29.95 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 3,586.00 US dollars/ounce, up 139.19 US dollars/ounce [6]. 1.2 Gold Basis - On September 5, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was -6.25 US dollars/ounce, up 40.10 US dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was -2.75 yuan/gram, down 1.45 yuan/gram [9]. 1.3 Gold Domestic and Foreign Market Price Differences - Affected by the increasing market sentiment for interest rate cuts, the foreign - market gold price continued to rise significantly last week. The gold domestic and foreign market price difference on Friday was -31.08 yuan/gram, down from -22.25 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The gold - to - oil ratio continued to rise, the gold - to - silver ratio rebounded, and the gold - to - copper ratio increased significantly [12]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings continued to increase last week. As of September 5, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 981.97 tons, up 4.29 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rebounded, with a cumulative trading volume of 297,248 kilograms, up 104.90% from the previous week. In terms of futures positions, as of September 2, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions continued to rise, and the net long positions increased. The COMEX gold futures inventory and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory both increased [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The ECB President stated that the price target has been achieved, and the euro - zone inflation rate will be maintained at 2.0%. Market expectations for further ECB easing this year are cooling, and it is expected to "stand pat" again at next week's meeting [22][23]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, contracting for six consecutive months. However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, while the output index fell back into the contraction range, and the employment index remained weak [24]. - US JOLTS job openings in July were 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months. The ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed fell to 1.0. Hiring increased, and layoffs rose to the highest level since September last year [25]. - US non - farm payrolls in August increased by 22,000, far lower than expected. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, a four - year high. The average hourly wage in August increased by 3.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with market expectations [26]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Fed officials had significant internal policy differences on the interest rate cut path this week. Some advocated starting interest rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next few months, while others were more cautious, believing that there was no reason to cut rates this month [36][37]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The US dollar index fluctuated slightly downward last week. Multiple US labor market data were far below expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to decline 0.11% to 97.74 as of September 5 [38]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The yield of the US 10 - year TIPS first rose and then fell last week, with an overall significant decline. The strong performance of the US ISM services index at the beginning of the week led to an increase in yields, but subsequent labor market data strengthened rate - cut expectations, causing yields to fall 9bp to 1.73% as of September 5 [41]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations remained unresolved. There was uncertainty about the Gaza cease - fire agreement, and Russia launched the largest - scale air strike on Ukraine since the war [44].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on gold prices due to weakening labor market conditions in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. labor market has shown significant weakness, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which has led to a substantial increase in gold prices [3][4]. - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in the upcoming week, driven by the anticipated release of U.S. inflation data and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4]. Market Review - As of September 5, the Shanghai gold futures price rose by 3.88% to 815.60 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold futures increased by 3.52% to 3639.80 USD per ounce [3][6]. - The T+D gold spot price rose by 3.82% to 811.65 CNY per gram, and London gold spot price increased by 4.04% to 3586.00 USD per ounce [6]. - The international gold basis (spot-futures) rose significantly by 40.10 USD per ounce to -6.25 USD per ounce, while the Shanghai gold basis decreased by 1.45 CNY per gram to -2.75 CNY per gram [9]. Holding Analysis - Global SPDR gold ETF holdings increased significantly by 4.29 tons to 981.97 tons, indicating strong investor interest [16]. - The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rose sharply by 104.90% to 297,248 kg [16]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The U.S. labor market data has shown a decline, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 [26]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, further supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [26]. - The JOLTS job openings report indicated a drop to 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months, reflecting a tightening labor market [25]. Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and pace of interest rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action while others suggest a more cautious approach [36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the issuance volume and net financing of local government bonds decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year. The issuance of new special bonds and refinancing bonds decreased month-on-month, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds resumed. From January to August, the issuance of new special bonds accounted for 74.2% of the annual quota, with a faster progress than the same period last year. The issuance progress of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts exceeded 95.9%. The weighted average issuance interest rate and spread of local government bonds increased month-on-month, and the issuance term was generally shortened. The funds raised by new special bonds were mainly invested in infrastructure and land reserves [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Issuance Situation 1. Issuance Scale - In August 2025, the issuance volume of local government bonds was 976.6 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 235.9 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 222 billion yuan. The net financing was 480.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 332.3 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 339.2 billion yuan. The issuance of new special bonds decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the issuance of refinancing bonds decreased month-on-month and increased year-on-year. Guizhou Province issued a 3.3-billion-yuan special refinancing bond in August, the first issuance this year. From January to August, the issuance of new special bonds was 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 692.7 billion yuan, accounting for 74.2% of the annual quota; the issuance of new general bonds was 620.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.4 billion yuan; and the issuance of refinancing bonds was 3.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 trillion yuan [5]. - In August, 5 provinces and planned单列 cities issued refinancing special bonds for replacing existing hidden debts, with a total issuance scale of about 51.5 billion yuan, accounting for 5.3% of the total issuance of local government bonds in that month. From January to August, 33 provinces and cities issued over 1.91833 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, exceeding 95.9% of the annual quota [6]. 2. Issuance Interest Rate - In August, the weighted average issuance interest rate of local government bonds increased by 19.23 bps month-on-month to 2.04%, and the issuance interest rates of all maturities increased. Specifically, the issuance interest rates of 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year local government bonds increased by 2.45 bps, 13.31 bps, 7.96 bps, 15.72 bps, 14.64 bps, 18.86 bps, 27.63 bps, 27.43 bps, and 18.95 bps respectively [16]. 3. Issuance Spread - In August, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds increased by 9.88 bps month-on-month to 20.48 bps, and the issuance spreads of all maturities widened. The issuance spreads of Shandong and Jilin provinces were relatively high, at 28.56 bps and 27.33 bps respectively [19]. 4. Issuance Term - In August, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.38 years, 0.17 years shorter than the previous month. The weighted average issuance terms of new special bonds and new general bonds increased by 1.14 years and 1.11 years respectively to 18.53 years and 9.93 years, while the weighted average issuance term of refinancing bonds decreased by 1.75 years to 10.35 years [23]. - In terms of the term structure, in August, the issuance proportions of 7-year and 30-year local government bonds decreased by 6.96 pct and 0.99 pct respectively compared with the previous month; the issuance proportions of 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 15-year local government bonds increased by 0.61 pct, 0.91 pct, 3.69 pct, and 2.24 pct respectively [24]. 5. Use of Raised Funds - The raised funds of new special bonds were mainly invested in infrastructure and land reserves. In August, the funds invested in "municipal and industrial park infrastructure", "land reserves", and "transportation infrastructure" accounted for a total of 37.32%, a month-on-month increase of 7.6 pct. The proportions of funds invested in "municipal and industrial park infrastructure" and "land reserves" increased by 5.2 pct and 2.4 pct respectively. From January to August, the top three fields in terms of investment scale were "municipal and industrial park infrastructure", "transportation infrastructure", and "land reserves", with a total issuance of 1.38 trillion yuan, accounting for 42.16% [29]. - In August, 19 provinces and cities issued special new special bonds (without disclosing the "one plan and two books"), with a total issuance scale of 19.9964 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance term of special new special bonds was 19.26 years, 2.57 years longer than other new special bonds. The funds were used for government investment projects, project construction, and existing government investment projects. In addition, 3 special bonds for government investment funds were issued by Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shaanxi, with a scale of 5 billion yuan each [33]. Regional Issuance Situation - In August, 32 provinces and cities (including planned单列 cities and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps) issued local government bonds. Anhui, Zhejiang, Hebei, and Hunan had an issuance scale of over 60 billion yuan, accounting for 30.4% of the total issuance in that month. From January to August, 37 provinces and cities issued about 7.68 trillion yuan of local government bonds. Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guangdong had an issuance scale of over 400 billion yuan, accounting for 25.7% of the total issuance during the same period [37].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market recovered, and the yield curve flattened. The bond market was boosted by the stock market decline and loose liquidity at the beginning of the week but was suppressed later by the stock market rebound and commodity trading. The long - term bond yield decreased overall, and the short - term rate was weaker than the long - term, leading to a flatter yield curve [3]. - This week, the bond market will likely continue to fluctuate weakly. The liquidity is expected to remain balanced and slightly loose. The economic data in August is unlikely to exceed expectations, which supports the bond market but won't strongly boost market sentiment. Policies to stabilize the capital market and the real estate market will suppress the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.80% [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Secondary Market**: The bond market recovered last week, and the long - term bond yield decreased overall. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.14% in the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.19bp compared with the previous Friday, while the 1 - year yield increased by 2.61bp, narrowing the term spread. The bond market's performance varied daily due to stock market trends [4]. - **Primary Market**: 39 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, 62 fewer than the previous week, with a total issuance of 563 billion yuan, 60.4 billion more than the previous week, and a net financing of 317 billion yuan, 330.6 billion more. Treasury bond issuance increased, while policy - bank bond and local government bond issuance decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable [14]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events The central bank announced a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, multi - price - winning买断式逆回购 operation on September 5 to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system. This was due to the high - peak issuance of government bonds in September, a large amount of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit, and the impact of the stock market on capital flow. It is expected that the central bank will continue to increase the volume of 3 - month买断式逆回购 operations in September [16]. 3.3 Real Economy Observation - **Production**: Most high - frequency production data declined last week, including the semi - steel tire operating rate, blast furnace operating rate, petroleum asphalt plant operating rate, and daily hot - metal output [17]. - **Demand**: The BDI index dropped slightly, the CCFI index continued to decline, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [17]. - **Prices**: The pork price fluctuated and decreased slightly, most commodity prices rose (such as steel and copper), and the crude oil price declined slightly [17]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net capital withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan last week. Although there were continuous net withdrawals, the central bank's large - scale买断式逆回购 operation showed its intention to maintain liquidity [27]. - The R007 and DR007 rates both decreased, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks continued to decline, the 3 - month national - share direct - discount rate continued to rise, and the volume of pledged repurchase transactions increased significantly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated and increased [30][33][36].

Export Performance - In August 2025, China's export value increased by 4.4% year-on-year, a decline of 2.8 percentage points compared to July[2] - Exports to the United States fell by 33.1% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 11.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The drop in exports to the U.S. reduced overall export growth by 5.1 percentage points, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from July[3] Trade Diversification - Exports to the EU, Japan, ASEAN, and Belt and Road economies showed accelerated growth, with ASEAN exports rising by 22.5%, up 5.9 percentage points from July[4] - Cumulative exports to Belt and Road economies increased by 10.7% year-on-year from January to August, indicating a diversification in trade[4] Import Trends - In August, imports grew by 1.3% year-on-year, a slowdown of 2.8 percentage points from July, primarily due to declining export growth affecting import momentum[6] - Major imports like crude oil saw a decline of 15.1%, with import volume growth slowing to 0.8%[7] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to decline further to around 2.0% in September, with significant risks due to high tariffs on U.S. exports[5] - Imports may enter negative growth territory in September, with a projected decline of approximately -1.0%[9]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints On September 3, the overall liquidity was balanced and slightly loose; the stock market decline boosted the bond market; the convertible bond market stopped falling and closed higher, with most convertible bond issues rising; yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally declined, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1]. Section Summaries 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market. Since May, over 1.02 trillion yuan of science - innovation bonds have been issued. The 2nd private enterprise bond financing training class was held in Wuxi. As of June 30, 2025, the total management scale of 460 mother funds was 3484.5 billion yuan, a 23.7% decrease from the end of 2024 [3][4]. - **International News**: In July, U.S. JOLTS job openings dropped to a 10 - month low, with significant decreases in healthcare, retail, and leisure & hospitality sectors. The ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed fell to 1, hovering at the lowest level since 2021. Recruitment increased by 41,000 to 5.308 million, and layoffs reached the highest level since September last year [6]. - **Commodities**: On September 3, WTI October crude oil futures fell 2.47% to $63.97 per barrel, Brent November crude oil futures fell 2.23% to $67.60 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3621.80 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 2.71% to $3.071 per ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On September 3, the central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 379.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 150.8 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates**: On September 3, the overall liquidity was balanced and slightly loose. DR001 decreased by 0.01bp to 1.314%, and DR007 increased by 0.40bp to 1.442% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yields**: On September 3, the bond market strengthened. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 decreased by 2.00bp to 1.7475%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 decreased by 2.15bp to 1.8460% [13]. - **Bond Tenders**: Details of the issuance scale, winning yields, and other information of multiple bonds such as 25贴现国债54 were provided [14]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On September 3, 5 industrial bonds had a price deviation of over 10%, including "15 宏图 MTN001" down over 97% and "H9 龙控 01" up over 100% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies had events such as bank loan defaults, subsidiary bankruptcies, and cancellation of bond issuances [15]. - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: - **Equity Market**: On September 3, the A - share market showed divergence. The ChiNext Index rose 0.95%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16% and 0.65% respectively. The full - day trading volume was 2.4 trillion yuan [16]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: On September 3, the convertible bond market stopped falling and closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%, 0.23%, and 0.28% respectively. The trading volume was 85.809 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.905 billion yuan from the previous trading day [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On September 3, "伟 22 转债" announced no downward revision of the conversion price, and "宏辉转债" announced early redemption, among other announcements [20]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: On September 3, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield decreased by 5bp to 3.61%, and the 10 - year yield decreased by 6bp to 4.22%. The 2/10 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp to 61bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 121bp. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate decreased by 1bp to 2.40% [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On September 3, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally declined. For example, the German 10 - year yield decreased by 5bp to 2.74% [24]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on September 3 were presented, including the daily changes, credit entities, and other information of multiple bonds [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On September 2, the overall liquidity remained balanced and loose; the bond market oscillated within a narrow range; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, and most convertible bond issues fell; yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The "Declaration of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Further Strengthening Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation" was released, with member states planning to strengthen cooperation in areas such as policy communication, AI research, and resource integration [3]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration issued a notice on tax policies for the operation and management of state-owned equity and cash proceeds transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income [4]. - The central bank announced liquidity injection data for August, with net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan, net PSL withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and net open - market repurchase injection of 300 billion yuan [4]. - The National Inter - bank Funding Center and the Shanghai Clearing House optimized the general repurchase trading and clearing mechanism in the inter - bank bond market, expanding the scope of eligible collateral [5]. (2) International News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. New orders expanded, while output declined, and employment remained weak [6]. (3) Commodities - International crude oil and natural gas prices rose. WTI October crude futures rose 2.47% to $65.59/barrel, Brent November crude futures rose 1.45% to $69.14/barrel, COMEX December gold futures rose 2.42% to $3601/ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.27% to $2.990/ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations On September 2, the central bank conducted 255.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate. With 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal of funds was 150.1 billion yuan [9]. (2) Funding Rates Despite two consecutive days of net withdrawal by the central bank, the overall liquidity remained balanced and loose. DR001 rose 0.19bp to 1.314%, and DR007 fell 0.79bp to 1.438% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - Rate Bonds - Yields on 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 0.10bp to 1.7675%, and yields on 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 fell 0.25bp to 1.8675% [13]. - There were no Treasury or CDB bond issuances on that day [14]. (2) Credit Bonds - Three industrial bonds and one urban investment bond had trading price deviations of over 10%. "H1 碧地 02" fell over 80%, "H1 碧地 01" fell over 75%, "H1 龙控 01" fell over 34%, and "20 永兴债 01" fell over 19% [15][16]. - Multiple credit events occurred, including debt restructuring of Kaisa Group, legal disputes of Rongqiao Group, cancellation of bond issuances by some companies, rating adjustments of some companies, and bankruptcy reorganization of some subsidiaries [18]. 4. Equity and Convertible Bond Market (1) Equity and Convertible Bond Indices - The three major A - share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.45%, 2.14%, and 2.85% respectively, and the total trading volume was 2.91 trillion yuan. Most Shenwan primary industries declined [19]. - The main convertible bond indices fell collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.88%, 0.71%, and 1.14% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 105.714 billion yuan, an increase of 14.611 billion yuan from the previous trading day [19]. (2) Convertible Bond Tracking - Some convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, including Huayang Convertible Bond's downward adjustment, Baichang Convertible Bond's decision not to adjust, and Zhekuang Convertible Bond's expected trigger of downward adjustment conditions. Some convertible bonds were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [23]. 5. Overseas Bond Market (1) US Bond Market - Yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose, with the 2 - year yield up 7bp to 3.69% and the 10 - year yield up 5bp to 4.28%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 62bp, and the spread between 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 123bp. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.41% [24][25][26]. (2) European Bond Market - Yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose, with Germany's up 4bp to 2.79%, France's up 5bp, Italy's up 7bp, Spain's up 5bp, and the UK's up 4bp [27]. (3) Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - Some Chinese - issued US dollar bonds had price increases, such as those of the Chinese government, Sunac China, and Country Garden. Some had price decreases, such as those of Agile Group, Lenovo Group, and Pinduoduo [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, both risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts increased, leading to a significant rise in gold prices. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, and Thailand - Cambodia, along with Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook and the release of dovish signals by Fed officials, boosted gold prices [2]. - This week (the week of September 1st), gold prices are expected to remain at a high level. The anticipated weakness in the US August non - farm payrolls report and continued geopolitical risks will support gold prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements**: On August 29th, the Shanghai gold futures price recovered by 1.52% to 785.12 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.89% to 3516.10 dollars/ounce. Gold T + D spot price increased 1.31% to 781.70 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 2.24% to 3446.81 dollars/ounce [2][5]. - **Gold Basis**: The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 46.35 dollars/ounce, down 7.00 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.30 yuan/gram, down 1.01 yuan/gram [8]. - **Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: The gold domestic - foreign price difference on Friday was - 22.25 yuan/gram, lower than the previous Friday. The gold - oil ratio increased, the gold - silver ratio decreased, and the gold - copper ratio rose [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Gold ETF holdings increased. The SPRD gold ETF fund's holdings reached 977.68 tons, up 20.91 tons. Domestic gold T + D trading volume increased by 27.25%. Gold CFTC asset management institutions' net long positions increased, and COMEX gold futures inventory and SHFE gold inventory rose [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Important Economic Data**: Trump threatened to remove Fed Governor Cook, which may lead to a constitutional crisis. US July durable goods orders were - 2.8% month - on - month, and core capital goods orders had the fastest growth in nearly three years. US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3%. US July core PCE price index increased year - on - year [19][20][21]. - **Fed Policy Tracking**: Richmond Fed President Barkin expected only minor interest rate adjustments. Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and expected further cuts in the next three to six months. San Francisco Fed President Daly hinted at a rate cut soon [30]. - **US Dollar Index Movement**: The US dollar index rose slightly last week. Geopolitical conflicts drove it up on Monday, but Trump's move and weak economic data caused it to fall later. It ended up 0.13% at 97.85 [31]. - **US TIPS Yield Movement**: The US 10 - year TIPS yield declined slightly due to Trump's move and dovish Fed statements. It was down 3bp to 1.82% [33]. - **International Important Event Tracking**: The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations were deadlocked. Israel continued to attack Gaza, and Russia launched an attack on Kiev while still expressing willingness for peace talks [36].