Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On November 21, the liquidity situation continued to ease, but market sentiment remained weak, leading to a volatile adjustment in the bond market. The convertible bond market followed the decline of the equity market, with most convertible bond indices and individual bonds falling. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies mostly decreased as well [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - Starting from next June, savings bonds (electronic) will be included in the scope of personal pension products [3]. - From January to October this year, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises in China increased by 14.7% year - on - year, while the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [3]. - The issuance of government bonds has entered a dense period, which is an important manifestation of the continuous implementation of proactive fiscal policies [3]. - **International News** - On November 21 local time, New York Fed President John Williams said there is room for further interest rate cuts in the near term [4]. - The preliminary value of the U.S. Markit Composite PMI in November reached the fastest growth in four months, with the service industry accelerating and the manufacturing industry slowing down [5]. - **Commodities** - On November 21, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, while international natural gas prices turned up [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations** - On November 21, the central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates** - Due to the end of the tax period and continuous net injections by the central bank, the liquidity situation continued to ease on November 21. Key funding rates such as DR001 and DR007 declined [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yields** - On November 21, despite the stock market decline, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted due to weak market sentiment. Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased slightly [12]. - **Bond Tendering** - On November 21, the 3 - year "25进出清发007(增发15)" was tendered, with a issuance scale of 2 billion yuan and a winning yield of 1.6542% [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On November 21, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0中骏02", deviated by more than 10%, rising by over 71% [13]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple companies announced important events, including debt restructuring, bond exchange offers, regulatory warnings, and cancellations of bond issuances [14][15]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On November 21, the three major A - share indices fell, and the convertible bond market also declined. Most convertible bond indices and individual bonds fell, with a decrease in trading volume [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On November 24, "卓镁转债" will be listed. Multiple convertible bonds announced price adjustments, potential redemptions, etc. on November 21 [18][19]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On November 21, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, and the yield spreads between different maturities changed [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On November 21, except for the 10 - year government bond yield in the UK, which increased, yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally declined [23]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on November 21, prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed, with some rising and some falling [25].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View On November 20, the liquidity continued to ease, the bond market mainly oscillated, the yields of interest - rate bonds changed within 1bp, the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, most convertible bond issues fell, the yields of US Treasury bonds across maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally rose [1]. Summary by Section 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking six consecutive months of no change [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce urged Japan to correct its wrong remarks on Taiwan. If Japan persists, China will take necessary measures [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce hoped that the Netherlands would take practical actions to solve the Nexperia issue and restore the security and stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [4]. - 50 cities were short - listed for the pilot program of new consumption models, and the central government will provide up to 400 million yuan per city in subsidies [4][5]. - **International News** - The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, more than double the expected 51,000, but the unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The September non - farm report deepened the Fed's internal division [6]. - **Commodities** - On November 20, WTI December crude futures fell 0.50% to $59.14/barrel, Brent January crude futures fell 0.20% to $63.38/barrel, COMEX December gold futures fell 0.56% to $4,060/ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.62% to $4.490/ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations** - On November 20, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 110 billion yuan after 190 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [9]. - **Funding Rates** - On November 20, the liquidity continued to ease, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 5.69bp to 1.365%, and DR007 dropped 2.74bp to 1.486%. Other rates such as Shibor also showed varying degrees of decline [10][11]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On November 20, the bond market mainly oscillated, and the yield changes of interest - rate bonds were within 1bp. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 rose 0.30bp to 1.8100%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 rose 0.25bp to 1.8720% [13]. - **Bond Tendering** - Various bonds such as 25 Guokai Qingfa bonds and 25 Jinchujian bonds were tendered, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [14]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies** - On November 20, the trading price of one industrial bond, "21 Taixin 06", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 11% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Events such as bond payment extension proposals, issuance cancellations, commercial paper overdue payments, and companies being restricted from high - end consumption or undergoing reorganization occurred among multiple companies [18]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On November 20, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling 0.40%, 0.76%, and 1.12% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.23%, 0.27%, and 0.23% respectively [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On November 21, Maolai Convertible Bond started online subscription, and Qizhong Convertible Bond was listed. Multiple convertible bonds announced redemption - related matters [22]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Treasury Bonds** - On November 20, the yields of US Treasury bonds across maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield dropped 3bp to 3.55%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 3bp to 4.10%. The inflation - adjusted break - even inflation rate of 10 - year US Treasury bonds dropped 3bp to 2.24% [23][25]. - **European Bonds** - On November 20, except for the 10 - year UK government bond yield which dropped 1bp, the 10 - year government bond yields of other major European economies generally rose [26]. - **Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on November 20, the daily price changes of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds varied, with some bonds rising and some falling [28].

1. Report Summary - On November 19, the funding situation eased, with major repo rates declining; the bond market weakened overall; the convertible bond market rebounded, with most convertible bond issues rising; yields on U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and the yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1][2] 2. Bond Market News 2.1 Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion euros of sovereign bonds in Luxembourg on November 18, with a subscription total exceeding 100 billion euros. The 4-year and 7-year bonds were issued at rates of 2.401% and 2.702% respectively, and all bonds will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Luxembourg Stock Exchange [5] - The Ministry of Finance advanced the budget for part of the central government's urban affordable housing project subsidies for 2026 on November 19 to support related work [6] - The Bond Connect's October 2025 report showed that northbound trading volume reached 572.3 billion yuan, and northbound swap trading reached 410.4 billion yuan [6][7] 2.2 International News - The Fed's meeting minutes on November 19 revealed significant differences among policymakers regarding a December rate cut, with many believing it may not be appropriate [8] 2.3 Commodities - On November 19, WTI December crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 2.14%, to $59.44 per barrel; COMEX gold futures rose 0.36% to $4081.10 per ounce; NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.44% to $4.564 per ounce [9] 3. Funding Situation 3.1 Open Market Operations - On November 19, the central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate, resulting in a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [11] 3.2 Funding Rates - On November 19, as the impact of tax payments diminished, the funding situation eased, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 10.64bp to 1.422%, and DR007 fell 1.08bp to 1.513% [12] 4. Bond Market Dynamics 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yields**: On November 19, the bond market weakened due to the rise of heavyweight sectors in the stock market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond active issue 250016 rose 0.20bp to 1.8070%, and the yield on the 10-year CDB bond active issue 250215 rose 0.15bp to 1.8695% [15] - **Bond Tenders**: Details of several bond tenders on November 19 were provided, including the 25 Attached Coupon Treasury Bond 20 (Reissued) and others [17] 4.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transactions**: On November 19, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Zhongjun 02," deviated by more than 10%, dropping by more than 75% [17] - **Credit Bond Events**: Several companies announced events, such as New World Development increasing the issuance cap of new perpetual bonds and Qiandongnan Investment being listed as a dishonest被执行人 [18] 4.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On November 19, the A-share market was divided, and the convertible bond market rebounded. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.24%, 0.21%, and 0.29% respectively [19] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Several companies announced events related to convertible bonds, such as Baolong Industry suspending trading of four domestic corporate bonds and Guangzhou Metro Group canceling the issuance of "25 Guangzhou Metro SCP011" [20] 4.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On November 19, yields on U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising 1bp to 4.13% [22] - **European Bond Market**: On November 19, the yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [25] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on November 19, price changes of various Chinese dollar bonds were reported [26]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR rates for November remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates since the last announcement on October 20, indicating no significant changes in the pricing basis[2] - The lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR rates is due to historically low net interest margins, despite a slight decrease in financing costs in the money market[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Recent economic indicators show a decline in domestic investment, consumption, and industrial production, with export growth turning negative, raising concerns about economic momentum[3] - To stabilize economic performance in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, it is anticipated that monetary policy may shift towards a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by year-end[3] - The low current price levels provide sufficient room for monetary policy to adopt a moderately accommodative stance, including potential interest rate cuts[3] Group 3: Housing Market Policies - There is an expectation for stronger policies to stabilize the housing market, potentially leading to a reduction in the 5-year LPR to lower residential mortgage rates significantly[4] - This move is seen as crucial for alleviating high actual mortgage rates and stimulating housing market demand[4]

1. Report Summary - On November 18, the capital market remained tight, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, most convertible bond individual securities fell, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [2] 2. Bond Market News 2.1 Domestic News - The National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data by age group for October. The unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) was 17.3%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.8% for the 30 - 59 age group [4] - Multiple "two - major" construction projects started recently. The State Council executive meeting proposed to plan and promote "two - major" construction in the overall situation of the 15th Five - Year Plan [4] - 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the central bank issued an implementation plan to encourage eligible science and technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market and support the bond issuance of consumer - related enterprises [5] - The Fourth China - Germany High - level Financial and Economic Dialogue reached consensus on deepening offshore RMB market cooperation and welcoming German institutions to issue panda bonds in China [6] 2.2 International News - For the week ending October 18, the initial jobless claims in the US were 232,000, and the continuing claims rose to 1.957 million. The government shutdown affected the release of key economic data [8] 2.3 Commodities - On November 18, WTI December crude oil futures rose 1.39% to $60.74 per barrel, Brent January crude oil futures rose 1.07% to $64.89 per barrel, COMEX December gold futures fell 0.2% to $4066.5 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.29% to $4.370 per ounce [9] 3. Capital Situation 3.1 Open Market Operations - On November 18, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net investment of funds on the day was 3.7 billion yuan [11] 3.2 Capital Interest Rates - On November 18, the capital market remained tight. DR001 rose 1.66bp to 1.529%, and DR007 rose 0.03bp to 1.524% [12] 4. Bond Market Dynamics 4.1 Interest - rate Bonds - The yields of interest - rate bonds changed slightly. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 0.15bp to 1.8040%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 fell 0.05bp to 1.8675% [15] - Several bonds were tendered, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [16] 4.2 Credit Bonds - Two industrial bonds had trading price deviations of over 10%. "23 Vanke 01" rose over 11%, and "H0 Baolong 04" rose over 37% [16] - There were multiple credit - related events such as debt reduction, companies being included in the list of dishonest executors, warnings from the trading association, rating adjustments, and ineffective bondholder meetings [18] 4.3 Convertible Bonds - The three major A - share indices fell 0.81%, 0.92%, and 1.16% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices falling 0.55%, 0.31%, and 0.78% respectively [18][19] - There were multiple convertible - bond - related events such as issuance approvals, conversion price adjustments, and early redemption announcements [23] 4.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield fell 2bp to 3.58%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1bp to 4.12%. The inflation - protected 10 - year Treasury bond's break - even inflation rate fell 1bp to 2.27% [22][25] - In the European bond market, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yields of German bonds remained unchanged, while those of France, Italy, and the UK rose [26] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds showed different trends for different credit entities [28]

Report Summary of Gold Weekly (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16) 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a rise - then - fall in gold prices last week. Although the prices ended up significantly higher overall, they faced pressure in the second half of the week. This week, gold prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with no unilateral trend likely [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Gold Spot and Futures Prices**: Last Friday (Nov 14), Shanghai gold futures closed at 953.20 yuan/gram, up 3.47% from the previous Friday; COMEX gold futures closed at 4084.40 dollars/ounce, up 1.91%. Gold T + D spot prices rose 3.31% to 947.98 yuan/gram, and London gold spot prices increased 2.05% to 4082.16 dollars/ounce [3][5]. - **Gold Basis**: The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 15.40 dollars/ounce last Friday, down 14.30 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 2.52 yuan/gram, down 1.14 yuan/gram [8]. - **Gold Domestic - Foreign Spread**: The gold domestic - foreign spread was - 6.47 yuan/gram last Friday, up from - 18.76 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The gold - oil ratio rose slightly, the gold - silver ratio declined, and the gold - copper ratio remained stable [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Gold ETF holdings increased last week. The world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund held 1044.00 tons, up 1.94 tons. Domestic gold T + D trading volume rose 3.45%. Gold CFTC asset management institutions' long and short positions both increased, with long net positions rising slightly. COMEX gold futures inventory decreased, while SHFE gold inventory increased by 810 kg to 90426 kg [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Important Economic Data**: The US Senate and House passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the 43 - day government shutdown, with funds until January 30, 2026. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000, the largest drop in two and a half years. The release schedule for important US data was set, with September non - farm payrolls due on November 20 [17][18][19]. - **Fed Policy Tracking**: Due to data gaps from the government shutdown, Fed officials' hawkish stances increased. New York Fed President Williams said the Fed would start buying assets to maintain sufficient reserves when the level is reached [29][30]. - **US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index declined slightly last week, down 0.28% to 99.28, as the market worried about weakening employment data [31]. - **US TIPS Yield Trend**: The US 10 - year TIPS yield rose slightly last week as hawkish remarks from Fed officials made the market predict a less - than - 50% chance of a December rate cut [33][37]. - **International Important Event Tracking**: On November 14, Ukraine attacked Russia's Novorossiysk port, reducing global crude supply by about 2.0%. On November 16, it attacked a Russian refinery, and Russia continued to advance in Ukraine [35].

Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's internal "hawkish" stance is intensifying, with a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts as inflation remains above target levels[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped below 50%, currently at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining rates has risen to 55.6%[9] - The U.S. government shutdown lasting over 43 days has created a data void, impacting the Fed's assessment of economic conditions[9] Group 2: Economic Data - The U.S. ADP private sector employment decreased by 45,000 jobs in October, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market[14] - The UK’s Q3 GDP grew by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in September[20] - Japan's PPI growth slowed to 2.66% year-on-year in October, indicating a potential easing in inflationary pressures[21] Group 3: Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.14% amid market adjustments following the end of the government shutdown[30] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting rising expectations for interest rate hikes[30] - The S&P 500 index saw a year-to-date increase of 14.49%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 18.59%[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, dominated by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The weak financial and macro data in October confirmed the economic downward expectation in Q4, but the market reaction was flat, and the bond market sentiment was mainly driven by the stock market, being more sensitive to stock market rises. The stock market first adjusted, then rose and fell back, and declined overall last week, leading to bond market fluctuations with only a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields rose slightly as the tax period approached, and the yield curve continued to flatten [3]. - This week (the week of November 17), the bond market will continue the oscillating pattern. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the short term has cooled, and the expectation of an interest rate cut is still weak. With the macro data in a vacuum period, the bond market will continue to oscillate, and stock market fluctuations will continue to dominate market sentiment. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may be implemented soon, but since the market has priced them fully, they may cause market fluctuations in the short term but with limited amplitude. Overall, with multiple factors such as weak fundamentals, low expectation of loose policies, the central bank's care for the capital market, the stock market entering an oscillating rest period, and the unimplemented new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the bond market is unlikely to break the deadlock and will probably continue the narrow - range oscillating pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, with long - term bond yields slightly declining. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.06% in the whole week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.02bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.59bp, with the term spread continuing to narrow [4]. - On November 10, affected by the warming of October inflation data, the bond market was weakly oscillating in the morning, but the long - term bonds recovered in the afternoon as the stock market fell, while short - term bonds were still weak due to tightened capital. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.03bp, and most of the Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.01% [4]. - On November 11, the bond market was generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.20bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 12, the central bank's Q3 monetary policy report mentioned stabilizing growth again and deleted the "anti - arbitrage" statement. The market's loose expectation remained, driving the bond market to be generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreasing by 0.48bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 13, the stock market hit a new high, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The bond market generally weakened. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.55bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed down, with the 10 - year main contract falling 0.10% [4]. - On November 14, the capital tightened marginally and the stock market declined. The bond market was narrowly oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.14bp, and the closing prices of Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors were mixed, with the 10 - year main contract remaining flat [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 100 interest - rate bonds were issued, 43 more than the previous week, with a issuance volume of 7269 billion, an increase of 2129 billion compared with the previous week, and a net financing amount of 3903 billion, an increase of 1020 billion compared with the previous week. In terms of bond types, the issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds increased month - on - month; the net financing amounts of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased month - on - month, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased month - on - month [10]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. Six Treasury bonds were issued, two of which were savings Treasury bonds, and the average subscription multiple of the remaining Treasury bonds was 3.39 times. Twenty - one policy - financial bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.83 times, and 73 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 20.09 times [14]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the policies to stabilize growth drove up entrusted loans, and M1 continued to grow rapidly. In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion, 280 billion less year - on - year; new social financing scale was 815 billion, 597 billion less year - on - year. At the end of October, M2 increased 8.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month; M1 increased 6.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point lower than at the end of last month [14]. - In October, the year - on - year growth of RMB loans decreased due to weak domestic demand, declining external demand, and the continuous downward pull of implicit debt replacement on new medium - and long - term corporate loans. The year - on - year growth of social financing continued to decline, mainly affected by the significant year - on - year decrease in government bond financing and RMB loans to the real economy. Due to the higher base in the same period last year, the growth rate of M2 declined at the end of October but remained at a relatively fast level. The growth rate of M1 declined as the low - base effect weakened, but it still grew rapidly due to the increase in current deposits of urban investment platform enterprises during debt replacement and the increase in current deposits of small and medium - sized enterprises [14]. - The macro data in October continued to decline. The year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% previously; the cumulative year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the first 10 months was 6.1%, compared with 5.8% in the whole year of 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 2.9%, down from 3.0% previously; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the first 10 months was 4.3%, compared with 3.5% in the whole year of 2024. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, compared with a decline of 0.5% previously and a growth of 3.2% in the whole year of 2024 [14]. - The industrial production growth rate declined rapidly in October due to different working days compared with last year, negative export growth, weak domestic consumption and investment momentum, and the weakening of the pulling effect of policies to boost domestic demand. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to decline in October mainly because the effect of the subsidy policy for trade - in weakened, the base in the same period last year increased, and the accelerated decline of the real - estate market dragged down real - estate - related consumption. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to October was - 1.7%, with negative cumulative year - on - year values for two consecutive months, mainly due to the slowdown of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real - estate investment. Overall, affected by weak external demand, weakening domestic consumption and investment growth momentum, and the time needed for policies to stabilize growth to take effect, the macro - economic operation in October continued the weakening trend since Q3 [15]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, the high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed performance. The blast furnace operating rate and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants both declined slightly, while the daily average molten iron output increased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) also continued to increase. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased slightly. In terms of prices, the pork price declined slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including the prices of rebar, copper, and crude oil [16]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net injection of funds through open - market operations last week was 626.2 billion. The R007 and DR007 both increased; the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock commercial banks increased; the direct discount rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks of all tenors decreased slightly; the trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly; the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated and decreased slightly [26][29][32].

Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth for the first ten months of 2025 was 6.1%, compared to 5.8% for the entire year of 2024[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.0% in the previous month[1] Industrial Production - The mining and manufacturing sectors saw a notable decline in growth rates, with year-on-year increases of 4.5% and 4.9%, down 1.9 and 2.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month[4] - The export delivery value for large-scale industrial enterprises fell by 2.1% year-on-year, marking a significant drop of 5.9 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest growth rate of the year[5] Consumer Trends - The retail sales growth for household appliances, furniture, and automobiles saw declines of 14.6%, 9.6%, and 6.6% respectively, with significant drops of 17.9, 6.6, and 8.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry surged by 37.6% year-on-year, an increase of 27.9 percentage points from the previous value, driven by rising international gold prices[9] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for January to October showed a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value, marking two consecutive months of negative growth[10] - Real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the housing market[13] Future Outlook - The government is expected to enhance growth-stabilizing policies before the end of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand and releasing consumption potential[2] - The anticipated implementation of new fiscal and monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts, aims to counteract the impacts of slowing external demand[2]

Loan and Financing Trends - In October 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion, reflecting weak consumer demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[1][4] - The total social financing scale in October was 815 billion, down 597 billion year-on-year, primarily due to reduced government bond financing and loans directed at the real economy[1][7] - The growth rate of broad money supply (M2) was 8.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while narrow money supply (M1) grew at 6.2%, down 1.0 percentage points[1][8][9] Economic Influences - Weak domestic demand and declining external demand have suppressed credit demand from both enterprises and residents, contributing to the overall decrease in new loans[2][4] - The October PMI for manufacturing showed unexpected declines, further inhibiting credit demand from real enterprises[5][6] - The implementation of new policy financial tools has yet to significantly impact the demand for medium to long-term loans from enterprises[5][6] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, potentially implementing new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by year-end to stimulate internal demand[3][12] - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to direct financial resources towards key sectors such as technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and small and micro enterprises[13]