Manufacturing PMI Insights - In September 2025, China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, exceeding market expectations[1] - The New Orders Index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the Production Index surged by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, marking a six-month high[2] - Seasonal recovery, improved consumer demand due to policy incentives, and positive outcomes from the China-US trade talks contributed to the PMI increase[2] Price and Economic Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline to approximately -2.3% in September, influenced by last year's lower base[3] - The Manufacturing PMI for high-tech sectors stood at 51.6%, while the Equipment Manufacturing PMI rose significantly by 1.4 percentage points to 51.9%[4][5] - The Consumer Goods Manufacturing PMI also increased by 1.4 percentage points to 50.6%, supported by government subsidies and stable export growth[5] Service and Construction PMI - The Services PMI decreased to 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, reflecting seasonal trends and the impact of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - The Construction PMI was at 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, but remained in contraction territory due to a cooling real estate market and weak infrastructure investment[7] Economic Outlook - The overall macroeconomic environment shows slight improvement, with a projected GDP growth rate of around 4.7% year-on-year for Q3, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from Q2[7] - Looking ahead, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly decline to approximately 49.6% in October, influenced by high tariffs and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 19, the liquidity situation improved, with major repo rates declining; the bond market continued to adjust, with long - term bonds performing weaker; the convertible bond market's main indices followed the decline, and most convertible bond issues fell; yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally rose, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The central bank adjusted the operation mode of 14 - day reverse repurchase, which released three key signals: strengthening the policy status of the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate, promoting the transformation of the monetary policy framework to price - based regulation, and enhancing the flexibility and precision of liquidity regulation [3] - The State Council Executive Meeting discussed and basically approved the "Revised Draft of the Law of the People's Republic of China on Banking Supervision and Administration" to promote the healthy development of the banking industry [3] - In August, foreign investors net - bought domestic stocks and bonds overall, and the foreign exchange market was stable with active trading and balanced supply and demand [4] - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges issued new regulations to optimize bond repurchase business, aiming to optimize corporate debt structure and resolve credit risks [5] - The inter - bank lending center launched new optimization functions for "North - bound Swap Connect" to meet the risk - management needs of overseas institutions [6] - As of September 21, the issuance scale of securities firms' bonds this year reached 1.23 trillion yuan, with the issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds exceeding 57 billion yuan; the redemption scale of banks' "Tier 2 and perpetual bonds" reached 729.28 billion yuan [7] 3.1.2 International News - The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate at 0.5% and announced the start of ETF and J - REIT reduction, with two members proposing a 25bp interest rate hike [8] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supported the Fed's rate - cut decision and predicted two more rate cuts this year, also raising the estimate of the neutral interest rate [9] 3.1.3 Commodity News - On September 19, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, and international natural gas prices declined; COMEX gold futures rose [10] 3.2 Funding Situation 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On September 19, the central bank conducted 354.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net capital injection of 124.3 billion yuan [12] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On September 19, after the tax - payment period ended, the funding situation improved, and major repo rates declined [13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On September 19, the bond market continued to adjust, with long - term bonds performing weaker. Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds increased [16] - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds was provided, including issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On September 19, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10% [18] - **Credit Bond Events**: Some bonds, such as "H16 Tianjian 2" and "20 Xingfu 01", had events like suspension and debt - repayment plan formulation [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On September 19, the three major A - share indices and convertible bond market indices all declined, and the convertible bond market's trading volume decreased [20] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Some companies' convertible bond issuance was approved, and some bonds had events like suspension, cancellation of issuance, and debt restructuring [22][23] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On September 19, yields of most U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and the yield spreads between different maturities changed [24][25] - **European Bond Market**: Yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased [27] - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of September 19 was provided, including the top gainers and losers [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, the capital market continued to loosen, and the bond market recovered; the main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most convertible bonds declined; the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, emphasizing the importance of Sino - US communication and cooperation in promoting bilateral economic and trade relations [3] - The LPR quotes for two tenors in September remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.50%, which was in line with market expectations [3] - As of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond markets ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserves ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China's financial risks were generally controllable, and the financial system operated steadily [4] - The CPC Party Group of the Ministry of Finance will coordinate debt replacement, financing platform reform, and accountability for illegal debt - raising [5] - The CPC Party Committee of the CSRC will coordinate the resolution of local financing platform and real - estate enterprise bond risks and support reasonable financing [5] 3.1.2 International News - Three Fed officials expressed concerns about inflation and believed that the space for further interest - rate cuts was limited this year, which may affect the Fed's interest - rate policy in the remaining two meetings [6] 3.1.3 Commodities - On September 22, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI October crude futures down 0.06% and Brent November crude futures down 0.16%; COMEX December gold futures rose 1.87%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.77% [7][8] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On September 22, the central bank conducted 2405 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 3000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net capital injection of 2605 billion yuan after 2800 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On September 22, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, and the capital market continued to warm up. Major repurchase interest rates continued to decline, such as DR001 down 3.67bp to 1.428% and DR007 down 2.08bp to 1.489% [11] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On September 22, due to the central bank's restart of the 14 - day reverse repurchase and the loosening of the capital market, the bond market recovered. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 fell 0.75bp to 1.7875%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 fell 1.00bp to 1.9280% [14] - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the issuance scale, winning bid yields, and other aspects of multiple bonds such as 25 Agricultural Development Discount 08 (Increment 3) was provided [16] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On September 22, the transaction prices of 2 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "16 Longhu 04" down more than 12% and "H1 Yangcheng 01" up more than 1592% [16] - **Credit Bond Events**: There were announcements from companies such as China Aoyuan, Newmi Caiyuan Investment Group, and Kaisa Group regarding debt restructuring, warnings, and other matters [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On September 22, the three major A - share indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.22%, 0.67%, and 0.55% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed down, with the China Bond Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Bond Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Bond Convertible Bond Index down 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.40% respectively [18] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On September 22, Fushi Convertible Bond announced that it was about to meet the early redemption conditions [21] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On September 22, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, with the 2 - year US Treasury yield up 4bp to 3.61% and the 10 - year US Treasury yield up 1bp to 4.14%. The yield spreads of 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year US Treasury bonds narrowed [22][23] - **European Bond Market**: On September 22, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK [25] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes, including the top 10 gainers and losers, of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of the close on September 22 was provided [27]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR rates for September remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates and a lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR amid historically low net interest margins[2] - Recent macroeconomic data has shown a decline in consumption, investment, and industrial production due to multiple factors, including extreme weather and real estate market adjustments[2] Group 2: Future Policy Outlook - There is potential for a reduction in policy rates and LPR in the fourth quarter to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market[3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts may reduce external constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for more flexibility in rate adjustments[3] - The current low inflation levels provide ample room for monetary policy easing, including potential interest rate cuts[3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Support - Additional measures are expected to support the real estate market, including potential targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to lower mortgage rates[4] - Lowering mortgage rates is seen as crucial for stimulating housing demand and reversing negative market expectations[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 17, the capital market showed a situation where the capital supply tightened, the bond market recovered, the convertible bond market continued to decline, and most convertible bond individual stocks fell; yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1,481.98 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, with cumulative growth rate 0.2 percentage points higher than last month; national tax revenue slightly increased by 0.02% year - on - year, with cumulative growth rate turning positive for the first time this year; national general public budget expenditure increased by 3.1% year - on - year, with cumulative growth rate 0.3 percentage points lower than last month; enterprise income tax revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, individual income tax revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, vehicle purchase tax revenue decreased by 17.7% year - on - year, stamp duty revenue increased by 27.4% year - on - year, and securities trading stamp duty revenue increased by 81.7% year - on - year [3]. - As of 16:30 on September 17, the on - shore RMB to US dollar exchange rate was reported at 7.1056. Since September, the on - shore RMB to US dollar exchange rate has risen by 0.46%. The appreciation is due to the expected Fed rate - cut cycle and weakening dollar, as well as China's stable economic performance and increased attractiveness of RMB assets [4]. - As of the end of July, the balance of service consumption loans in key areas was 279 billion yuan, with new loans in the first seven months 6.3 billion yuan more than the whole of last year [4]. - Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, the total assets of central enterprises have increased from less than 70 trillion yuan to over 90 trillion yuan, and the total profit has increased from 1.9 trillion yuan to 2.6 trillion yuan, with average annual growth rates of 7.3% and 8.3% respectively. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, 6 groups of 10 enterprises were restructured, and 9 new central enterprises were established [6]. 3.1.2 International News - On September 17 (U.S. Eastern Time), the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%. The Fed expects to cut rates three times this year (one more than last time) and once next year. It also adjusted GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation expectations [7]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On September 17, WTI crude oil fell 0.75% to $63.99 per barrel, Brent crude oil fell 0.97% to $68.11 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.84% to $3,693.90 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.28% to $3.077 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Capital Supply 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On September 17, the central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 304 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 114.5 billion yuan [9]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - Affected by the tax period on September 17, the capital supply tightened, and major repurchase rates continued to rise. DR001 rose 4.43bp to 1.487%, and DR007 rose 4.26bp to 1.540% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On September 17, the bond market was weak in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 fell 1.70bp to 1.7630%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 fell 1.75bp to 1.9025% [13]. - **Bond Tendering Situations**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds such as 25贴现国债57, 25贴现国债58, etc., including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, over - subscription ratio, and marginal ratio, was provided [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On September 17, the transaction prices of 3 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1碧地03" fell more than 21%, "H9龙控01" rose more than 15%, and "H1碧地04" rose more than 66% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Wuhan Tianying Investment's subsidiary failed to pay the principal and interest of "20天乾01" on schedule, with a bond balance of 450 million yuan; Oceanwide Capital planned to use a total of 11.9139 million yuan for bond repurchases [16]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On September 17, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 0.37%, 1.16%, and 1.95% respectively, and the total trading volume was 2.4 trillion yuan. The convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indexes rising 0.57%, 0.55%, and 0.57% respectively. The trading volume was 89.036 billion yuan, an increase of 1.853 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among individual convertible bonds, 325 rose, 97 fell, and 15 remained flat [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Sichuan Bluetown Development and its subsidiaries had 25 new items included in the list of dishonest executors; Shimao Co., Ltd. had new litigation and arbitration involving a total amount of 1.656 billion yuan as of August 31; Hong Yang Real Estate postponed the Hong Kong winding - up petition hearing to March 23 next year; Shimao Construction had new overdue bond principal and interest of about 690 million yuan and new overdue interest - bearing debts of more than 10 million yuan totaling about 200 million yuan; Yingliu Convertible Bond will start online subscription on September 19; Ruikeda's convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange on September 17 [20][21]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On September 17, yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose. The yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury rose 1bp to 3.52%, and the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury rose 2bp to 4.06%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 1bp to 54bp, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 104bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 1bp to 2.38% [22][23][24]. - **European Bond Market**: On September 17, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond fell 2bp to 2.68%, yields of 10 - year French and British government bonds remained unchanged, the yield of the 10 - year Italian government bond fell 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year Spanish government bond rose 2bp [25]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes of multiple Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on September 17, including daily changes, credit entities, bond codes, issuance amounts, maturity dates, yields, and monthly changes, was provided [28].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut in nine months[2] - The median dot plot indicates the Fed expects three rate cuts this year, an increase from the previous forecast, with one additional cut expected next year[2] - The decision reflects a shift in focus from inflation to employment, as employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[7] - The Fed revised down non-farm employment data for April 2024 to March 2025 by 911,000, the largest historical revision[7] - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for this year from 1.4% to 1.6% while lowering unemployment rate expectations for the next two years[8] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Core PCE inflation is expected to be influenced by tariffs, contributing only 0.3-0.4 percentage points, indicating a slower and smaller impact than anticipated[7] - The Fed's inflation target is now projected to be reached by 2028, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation in the medium term[8] Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - The internal policy divergence within the Fed is significant, with 9 members expecting two more cuts this year, while 6 do not foresee any further cuts[9] - The likelihood of continuous rate cuts remains uncertain, as economic data and political factors will heavily influence future decisions[12] - The Fed's gradual approach aims to balance employment stability with inflation control, avoiding rapid rate adjustments[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 9th, the liquidity tightened, major repo rates rose, the bond market remained weak, convertible bond market indices declined, and yields of US and major European 10-year government bonds generally increased [1]. - The significant downward revision of US non-farm annual data may lay the foundation for the Fed to cut interest rates, indicating a slowdown in the US labor market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - At the press conference on the "14th Five-Year Plan", the MIIT announced that during the "14th Five-Year Plan", China's manufacturing added - value is expected to increase by 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, and China has built a large - scale network infrastructure [3]. - The SAMR issued a document to improve the exit mechanism for business entities, and the new regulations will take effect on October 10th [3]. - In August, national enterprise sales revenue grew rapidly, with manufacturing sales growing faster than the overall level, and high - end and digital manufacturing showing good growth [4]. 3.1.2 International News - The US non - farm employment data for the year ending March was revised down by 911,000, the largest downward revision since 2000, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On September 9th, international crude oil futures prices rose, and natural gas prices slightly increased, while COMEX gold futures prices fell [7]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On September 9th, the central bank conducted 247 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 870 million yuan due to the maturity of 255.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [9]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On September 9th, the liquidity tightened, and major repo rates increased. For example, DR001 rose 5.93bp to 1.416%, and DR007 rose 2.66bp to 1.479% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On September 9th, affected by concerns about redemption fees and tightening liquidity, the bond market was weak. Yields of 10 - year treasury and CDB bonds increased [13]. - **Bond Tendering**: Several bonds were tendered on September 9th, with details such as issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples provided [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities**: On September 9th, 4 industrial bonds had transaction price deviations of over 10%, including significant drops and rises [15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Companies such as Orient Fashion, Nanyang Transportation Construction Investment Group, Oceanwide Holdings, and Shandong Hengbang Smelting announced relevant events [16]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On September 9th, A - share indices and convertible bond market indices all declined, with most stocks and convertible bonds falling [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: There were announcements regarding creditor's meetings, litigation disputes, new bond listings, and regulatory approvals for convertible bonds [19][20]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On September 9th, yields of US bonds across all maturities generally increased, and yield spreads narrowed. The inflation - protected treasury bond's break - even inflation rate rose [21][22][23]. - **European Bond Market**: On September 9th, 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies generally increased [24]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on September 9th, there were price changes in Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, with details of daily and monthly changes provided [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 12, the liquidity situation gradually stabilized, with major repo rates declining; the bond market showed a mild and fluctuating trend; the main indices of the convertible bond market all closed higher, and most convertible bond issues rose; yields on U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies also generally rose [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - In August 2025, new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan; new social financing scale was 2.5693 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan; at the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, the same as at the end of the previous month; M1 increased by 6.0% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month [3]. - As of the end of June 2025, over 60% of financing platforms achieved exit, meaning over 60% of implicit debts of financing platforms were cleared, and the reform and transformation of financing platforms accelerated. The government also issued 500 billion yuan of special treasury bonds this year to inject capital into large commercial banks, expected to drive about 6 trillion yuan in credit [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to promote the expansion of the REITs market, and the central settlement company and the inter - bank lending center will jointly launch a centralized bond lending business on October 10, 2025. The National Financial Regulatory Administration released a management method for trust companies, effective January 1, 2026 [5][6]. - Eight departments jointly issued a work plan for the stable growth of the automobile industry, aiming for about 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, including about 15.5 million new energy vehicle sales, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [7]. - **International News** - On September 12, Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from AA - to A + due to the continuous rise in France's debt - to - GDP ratio, which is expected to increase from 113.2% in 2024 to 121% in 2027, and the lack of a clear debt stabilization path [8]. - **Commodities** - On September 12, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices turned up. WTI October crude oil futures rose 0.51% to $62.69 per barrel, Brent November crude oil futures rose 0.93% to $66.99 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 0.19% to $3680.50 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.09% to $2.973 per ounce [10]. (2) Liquidity Situation - **Open Market Operations** - On September 12, the central bank conducted 230 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 188.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection of funds was 41.7 billion yuan [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On September 12, the liquidity situation gradually stabilized, and major repo rates declined. DR001 decreased by 0.60bp to 1.365%, and DR007 decreased by 2.38bp to 1.458% [12]. (3) Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On September 12, affected by the stock market decline, stable liquidity, and the central bank's over - renewal of repurchase agreements, the bond market showed a mild and fluctuating trend. Yields on 10 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds decreased [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of several bonds on September 12, including the 25 Jinchuchingfa 02 (Additional Issue 3), 25 Jinchuchingfa 007 (Additional Issue 8), 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 17, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 18, was provided [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On September 12, the trading prices of 6 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 01" fell by more than 86%, "H1 Bidi 04" fell by more than 50%, "H8 Longkong 05" fell by more than 41%; "H9 Longkong 01" rose by more than 77%, "H1 Bidi 03" rose by more than 162%, and "H1 Bidi 02" rose by more than 205% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple credit - related events were reported, such as Evergrande Property's resumption of trading, Guangxi Baise Development being included in the list of被执行人, and Moody's downgrading of Sinochem Hong Kong's issuer rating [19]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On September 12, the three major A - share indices all closed lower, while the main indices of the convertible bond market all closed higher. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 91.591 billion yuan, an increase of 342 million yuan from the previous trading day [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On September 12, Qizhong Technology's application for issuing convertible bonds was approved by the exchange. Several convertible bonds announced redemption - related matters, and some were on the verge of triggering early redemption conditions [25]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On September 12, yields on U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased. The yield on 2 - year U.S. Treasuries rose by 4bp to 3.56%, and the yield on 10 - year U.S. Treasuries rose by 5bp to 4.06% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On September 12, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. Yields on 10 - year government bonds of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose by 6bp, 5bp, 7bp, 6bp, and 6bp respectively [27]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on September 12, price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds were provided, including details of the top 10 gainers and losers [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market adjusted, with the yield curve steepening and shifting upward. The long - term bond yields first rose and then fell, showing an overall increase. The short - term interest rates had a smaller increase than the long - term ones. This week, the bond market may stabilize, but a trend - based recovery is unlikely. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.80% [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market adjusted last week. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract fell 0.19% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 4.10bp, and the 1 - year Treasury yield rose 0.41bp compared to the previous Friday, with the term spread widening [4]. - On September 8th, the bond market was weak due to a strong stock market and concerns about bond fund scale reduction. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 2.54bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.21% [4]. - On September 9th, the bond market remained weak due to concerns about redemption fees and tightened liquidity. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 1.27bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.06% [4]. - On September 10th, although the morning sentiment improved due to lower - than - expected inflation data, the bond market weakened significantly in the afternoon. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 3.51bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.27% [4]. - On September 11th, the bond market recovered due to improved liquidity and rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases. The 10 - year Treasury yield fell 2.49bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract rose 0.07% [4]. - On September 12th, the bond market was slightly bullish due to loose liquidity, a falling stock market, and the central bank's over - renewal of repurchase agreements. The 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.73bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract rose 0.06% [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 83 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 1034.5 billion yuan, a net financing of 435 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and local bonds increased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds decreased [10]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally good. The average subscription multiples for Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds were 3.37, 2.92, and 20.81 times respectively [11]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In August, the export growth rate declined. The export value increased 4.4% year - on - year, 2.8 percentage points lower than in July. The import value increased 1.3% year - on - year, also 2.8 percentage points lower than in July. The export slowdown was mainly due to a higher base and a significant decline in exports to the US [12]. - In August, the CPI turned negative year - on - year, falling 0.4%. The PPI fell 2.9% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month rate. The CPI decline was mainly due to a high food price base last year, and the PPI's flat month - on - month rate was affected by policies and international commodity prices [12]. - In August, new RMB loans returned to positive growth, with 590 billion yuan in new loans. New social financing was 2569.3 billion yuan. M2 grew 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 grew 6.0% year - on - year. The growth in new loans was due to improved economic sentiment and increased credit demand [12][13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production data increased, including the semi - steel tire, blast furnace, and asphalt plant operating rates, as well as daily hot - metal production. On the demand side, the BDI index rose, while the CCFI continued to decline. The 30 - city property sales area decreased. Pork and most commodity prices rose, except for the fluctuating decline in rebar prices [14]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital injection of 196.1 billion yuan. The R007 and DR007, inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and national and stock direct - discount rates all rose. The inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated downward [24][26][30].

Economic Growth Overview - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in July, with a cumulative growth of 6.2% from January to August[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year in August, a decrease from 3.7% in July, with a cumulative growth of 4.6% from January to August[1] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.5% from January to August, down from 1.6% in July[1] Industrial Production Insights - The slowdown in industrial production is attributed to weakened external demand and insufficient domestic demand, with August's industrial added value growth down by 0.5 percentage points[3][4] - Manufacturing output growth was 5.7% in August, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, primarily impacting overall industrial growth[4] - Export delivery value for industrial enterprises fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, marking the first negative growth since 2024[4] Consumer Spending Trends - The slowdown in retail sales is influenced by last year's consumption policies and declining food prices, with August's retail sales growth at 3.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from July[6] - Optional consumer goods retail sales showed improvement, likely due to the wealth effect from rising stock markets, with categories like clothing and cosmetics seeing increased sales growth[8] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth for the first eight months was 0.5%, reflecting a decline of 1.1 percentage points from previous values, with all major investment sectors experiencing downturns[9][12] - Manufacturing investment growth was 5.1%, down 1.1 percentage points, while high-tech manufacturing sectors like computer and aerospace equipment saw significant growth rates of 12.6% and 28.0% respectively[10][11] Future Economic Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to remain weak in September, with industrial and retail growth potentially declining further, while investment growth may stabilize[2][15] - Anticipated macroeconomic policies in Q4 may include increased fiscal measures and interest rate cuts to counteract external demand slowdowns and support the real estate market[15]