Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The real estate market in China has shown strong sensitivity to policy adjustments since the housing reform in 1998, with three significant downturns and recoveries closely linked to policy interventions [2][4] - Recent policy relaxations, such as the "three arrows" policy and the "442" policy, have only resulted in temporary rebounds, indicating a weakening sensitivity of the market to policy changes [2][12] - The current downturn is characterized by a significant decline in both housing prices and sales, with the investment amount in October reaching the lowest level since 2013 [2][20] Summary by Sections 1. Interaction Between Real Estate Adjustments and Policy Regulation - Policy regulation has been the core driver of changes in the real estate market, with each downturn and recovery phase closely tied to policy adjustments [5] - The first adjustment occurred during the global financial crisis in 2008, where a significant stimulus plan led to a rapid recovery in sales [5][6] - The second adjustment in 2011-2012 saw a shift to a more relaxed monetary policy, which helped the market recover after a period of decline [6][7] - The third adjustment in 2014-2015 involved strict regulations to curb speculation, followed by a shift to "de-stocking" policies that eventually led to market recovery [7][8] 2. Current Downturn and Market Sensitivity - The current downturn has seen a significant reduction in the market's sensitivity to policy changes, with the impact of recent policies being less effective than in previous cycles [9][12] - Factors contributing to this include a slower-than-expected policy implementation, a systemic reduction in residents' willingness to leverage, and rising actual mortgage rates [13][14] 3. Market Performance in 2025 - The real estate market has continued to face downward pressure, with a notable decline in second-hand housing prices and overall sales volume [15][20] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales area and sales amount of commercial housing have decreased by 6.8% and 9.6% respectively, reaching levels comparable to 2010 [20] - Investment in real estate has also contracted significantly, with October's investment amount marking a new low since 2013 [25][29] 4. Future Policy Space and Directions - Future policies are expected to focus on stabilizing the market through both short-term stimulus and long-term structural adjustments [35][38] - The report highlights the need for a balanced approach that includes lowering mortgage rates and improving income distribution to enhance residents' purchasing power [64][68] - The establishment of a more mature regulatory framework for the real estate market, including measures to prevent risks associated with unfinished projects and to promote rental markets, is also emphasized [68][69]

Export Performance - In November 2025, China's export value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 7.0 percentage points compared to October[2] - The decline in exports to the US was 28.6%, widening by 3.4 percentage points from October[4] - Exports of integrated circuits and automobiles surged by 34.2% and 53.0% respectively, contributing significantly to the overall export growth[3] Import Trends - November 2025 saw a 1.9% year-on-year increase in import value, with a 0.9 percentage point acceleration from October[7] - Imports of crude oil decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in import prices by 11.1%[8] - The decline in imports from the US was 19.1%, but this was a smaller drop compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization[9] Market Dynamics - The overall export growth was supported by a shift towards diversified markets, with significant increases in exports to the EU and "Belt and Road" economies, which grew by 14.8% and 10.5% respectively[5] - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to the flexibility and strong pressure resistance of private enterprises, especially in the context of declining US market demand[6] - Future export growth may face challenges due to elevated year-on-year baselines and potential global trade slowdowns, with December exports possibly nearing zero growth[6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuation of a loose monetary policy in China, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducting a 3-month reverse repurchase agreement to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4][5] - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, with yields on major government bonds rising across the board, indicating market panic and selling pressure [12][13] - Several companies, including Vanke and Country Garden, are facing significant challenges, with Vanke's bonds experiencing steep declines and Country Garden's restructuring plans being approved [15][16] Domestic News - The PBOC announced a fixed amount of 1 trillion yuan for a 3-month reverse repurchase operation to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system, effectively rolling over the same amount that is maturing [4] - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the need to enhance the role of policy interest rates and improve the transmission mechanism of interest rates in the economy [5][6] - Foreign institutions, including OECD and Goldman Sachs, have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with projections for 2025 increased from 4.9% to 5.0% [6] International News - In the U.S., planned layoffs in November decreased significantly, but the total number of layoffs for the year remains at a high level, indicating a cautious labor market [7] - The global economic environment is characterized by uncertainty, affecting hiring intentions among employers [7] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has seen a significant sell-off, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising to 1.8500%, reflecting market fears [13] - The report notes that several bonds from Vanke have seen drastic price declines, with some bonds dropping over 82% [15][16] Credit Bond Events - Country Garden's bond restructuring proposal was approved, allowing for a debt reduction of approximately $1.17 billion [16] - Other companies, such as Peng Bo Shi, have reported difficulties in meeting debt obligations, with outstanding bonds totaling around $218.54 million [16] Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is also experiencing a downturn, with major indices declining and a significant number of individual bonds falling in value [16][17] - The report mentions specific convertible bonds that have seen notable price movements, with some increasing by over 9% while others have decreased significantly [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 3, the central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals in the open - market operations, but the liquidity remained stable with a slight easing trend. The bond market fluctuated narrowly, and most yields of interest - rate bonds increased. Some bonds of Vanke continued to decline, and Fitch placed Vanke and Vanke Hong Kong's "CCC -" issuer ratings on negative watch, downgrading Vanke Hong Kong's note rating to "CC". The convertible bond market followed the stock market and continued to decline. Overseas, the US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, and yields of major US Treasury bonds decreased across the board, while the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - On December 3, Premier Li Qiang emphasized during the 17th special study of the State Council that the huge potential of domestic demand in urban - rural integrated development should be fully unleashed. The Ministry of Finance will issue 7 billion yuan of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong on December 10 [3] - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data on December 3, showing that the China Logistics Prosperity Index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. On the same day, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration of China jointly issued an action plan to promote the integration of culture, tourism, and the civil aviation industry [4] 3.1.2 International News - In November, the US private - sector employment decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023, far worse than the market expectation of an increase of 40,000 jobs. Small - scale enterprises were the hardest - hit area for layoffs. Futures traders expect the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to be close to 90% [6] - The US ISM Services PMI in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The price - payment index dropped to a seven - month low, indicating that inflationary pressures have eased. The employment index rose to a six - month high, showing that the rate of employment decline has slowed down [7] 3.1.3 Commodities - On December 3, international crude oil futures prices turned up, with WTI January crude oil futures rising 0.53% to $58.95 per barrel and Brent February crude oil futures rising 0.35% to $62.67 per barrel. COMEX gold futures rose 0.44% to $4,239.30 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 3.83% to $5.010 per ounce [8] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On December 3, the central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 213.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 134 billion yuan [10] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On December 3, the liquidity at the beginning of the month remained stable with a slight easing trend. DR001 rose 0.19 basis points to 1.299%, and DR007 fell 0.01 basis points to 1.441%. Other major funding rates showed different degrees of changes [11][12] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot - Bond Yield Trends**: On December 3, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, and most yields of interest - rate bonds increased. The 30 - year ultra - long bonds were notably weak. For example, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 0.15 basis points to 1.8375%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250215 rose 1.00 basis point to 1.9180% [15] - **Bond Tendering Situations**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25 Discount Treasury Bond 75, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 76, 25 Agricultural Development Bond 31 (Increment 16), and 25 Agricultural Development Bond 30 (Increment 3) was provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, overall multiples, and marginal multiples [17][19] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On December 3, the trading prices of 5 bonds deviated by more than 10%. Bonds such as "H0 Zhongnan 02" and "22 Vanke MTN005" declined significantly, while "23 Vanke 01" rose by more than 12% [19] - **Credit - Bond Events**: Rongqiao Group's subsidiary failed to repay a 40 - million - yuan debt to China Everbright Bank on schedule, and Rongqiao Group provided joint and several liability guarantee. Youa Co., Ltd. adjusted the redemption time of "20 Xiangyouyiapollo ZR001" again, with the remaining principal of 459 million yuan to be redeemed on December 26 [20][21] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible - Bond Indexes**: On December 3, the three major A - share indexes closed down. The convertible - bond market followed the equity market and continued to decline. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.21%, 0.16%, and 0.27% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible - bond market was 54.11 billion yuan, an increase of 7.254 billion yuan from the previous trading day [22] - **Convertible - Bond Tracking**: Some companies made announcements, such as Jinlun Tian Di Holdings extending the deadline for its debt - restructuring plan to June 30 next year, and several convertible bonds having events such as approaching the trigger of the conversion - price downward - revision clause, early redemption announcements, etc. [24][30] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Treasury Market**: On December 3, yields of US Treasury bonds of other maturities generally declined. The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 3.49%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.06%. The yield spread between the 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds narrowed by 1 basis point to 57 basis points, and the yield spread between the 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds widened by 3 basis points to 111 basis points [26][27] - **European Bond Market**: On December 3, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond remained unchanged at 2.75%, while the yields of 10 - year government bonds in Italy and the UK fell 2 basis points and 1 basis point respectively [29] - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on December 3, price changes of some Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds were provided, including companies such as Trip.com Group, Weibo, and Ideal Auto [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On November 28, the liquidity was ample, the bond market recovered, and the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, with most convertible bond issues rising. The yields of US Treasuries across all tenors generally increased, while the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the PMI of small enterprises was 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a six-month high [3]. - The central bank will continue to adhere to the prohibitive policy on virtual currency and continuously combat illegal financial activities related to virtual currency [3]. - The CSRC solicited public comments on the "Measures for the Implementation of Regulatory Measures in the Securities and Futures Markets (Draft for Comment)", clarifying the procedural regulations for regulatory measures and improving the standardization of supervision and the level of governing the market by law [4]. - The CSRC solicited public comments on the "Announcement on the Pilot Program of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (Draft for Comment)", including product definition, fund registration and operation management requirements, and strengthening regulatory responsibilities [5]. - **International News** - Tokyo's core inflation data in November exceeded market expectations, pushing the Bank of Japan closer to a second interest rate hike. The 11-month Tokyo core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Japan's industrial output in October increased by 1.4% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations [6]. - **Commodities** - On November 28, WTI January crude oil futures fell 0.17% to $58.55 per barrel, Brent February crude oil futures fell 0.8% to $62.38 per barrel, COMEX December gold futures rose 1.27% to $4,218.3 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.92% to $4.863 per ounce [7]. II. Liquidity - **Open Market Operations** - On November 28, the central bank conducted 301.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 375 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 73.7 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates** - On November 28, the liquidity was ample. DR001 decreased by 0.81bp to 1.303%, and DR007 increased by 2.04bp to 1.467% [10]. III. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On November 28, the bond market recovered. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10-year Treasury active bond 250016 decreased by 1.50bp to 1.8290%, and the yield of the 10-year CDB active bond 250215 decreased by 1.85bp to 1.8990% [13]. - **Bond Tendering** - The 3-year "25进出清发007 (Additional Issue 16)" was issued with a scale of 1.5 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.6505%, a full - subscription multiple of 7.59, and a marginal multiple of 1.58 [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On November 28, the transaction prices of 9 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "22万科MTN004" fell by more than 72%, "23万科01" fell by more than 71%, and "21万科04" fell by more than 67%; "22万科06" rose by more than 58%, "22万科04" rose by more than 74%, and several other bonds also had significant price increases [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Vanke mortgaged 15.3211 million shares of Vanke Property Service to Shenzhen Metro [16]. - China Jinmao obtained a medium - and long - term loan quota of 9.9 billion yuan, secured by the property rights of Century Avenue 88 - story building and its corresponding land use rights [16]. - Far East Development's revenue in the six months ended September 30 was approximately HK$3.756 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 27.38%, and the attributable loss to shareholders was HK$988 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.38% [16]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On November 28, the three major A - share indices closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 0.34%, 0.85%, and 0.70% respectively, with a total turnover of 1.6 trillion yuan. The main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, with a turnover of 65.18 billion yuan, an increase of 10.235 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17][19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On November 28, Lanfan Convertible Bond announced that the board of directors proposed to lower the conversion price; Changhong Convertible Bond and Lepu Convertible Bond 2 announced that they were about to trigger the conditions for lowering the conversion price. Zhongqi Convertible Bond announced an early redemption; Huamao Convertible Bond and Xinhua Convertible Bond announced that they were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [22]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market** - On November 28, the yields of US Treasuries across all tenors generally increased. The yield of the 2 - year US Treasury rose by 2bp to 3.47%, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury rose by 2bp to 4.02%. The 2/10 - year US Treasury yield spread remained unchanged at 55bp, and the 5/30 - year US Treasury yield spread remained unchanged at 108bp. The 10 - year US Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) breakeven inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.23% [21][23][24]. - **European Bond Market** - On November 28, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose by 1bp to 2.69%, while the yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, and Spain remained unchanged, and the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond fell by 1bp [25]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on November 28, bonds of companies such as Pinduoduo, Ctrip Group, and Lenovo Group had price increases, while bonds of companies such as Zhongjun Group Holdings, NIO, and Wanda Real Estate had price decreases [27].

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials signaled a dovish stance, with support for a rate cut in December from officials like Waller and Daly[9] - Economic data showed a slowdown in U.S. retail sales and durable goods orders, indicating weakened consumer momentum[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.02% as markets continued to price in rate cut expectations[23] European Central Bank - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain current interest rates, citing economic resilience and stable inflation[10] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of further rate cuts in 2025, with a 40% chance of a cut by the end of 2026[10] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales grew by only 0.2% in September, significantly lower than August's 0.6%[13] - Durable goods orders increased by 0.5% in September, down from 3.0% in August, with non-defense orders rising just 0.1%[13] - Eurozone economic sentiment index rose to 97.0 in November, up from 96.8 in October, indicating improved economic confidence[22] Fiscal Policy - The UK government announced an additional £26 billion in taxes, raising the overall tax burden to 38% of GDP by the end of the parliamentary term[12] - The largest revenue increase will come from freezing the personal income tax threshold, expected to generate £12.7 billion by the 2030-31 fiscal year[12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market weakened overall, with long - term bond yields rising significantly. Affected by rumors of new regulations on public fund sales and the stock market's shock recovery, market sentiment weakened further, and bond fund redemption pressure increased. However, on Friday, the bond market recovered due to the weakening expectation of November PMI and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. The yield curve steepened upward as short - term bond yields rose less than long - term ones because of the loose funding situation. [2] - This week (the week of December 1st), the bond market will continue to fluctuate. The November manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged, which is generally favorable to the bond market. December is a traditional allocation month, and institutional investors such as insurance companies may make advance arrangements, providing some support to the bond market. However, due to the uncertainty of the new regulations on public fund sales, stock market disturbances, and weak expectations of interest rate cuts, market sentiment is generally cautious, and the bond market's reaction to fundamental positives will be limited. In the short term, it is difficult for the bond market to break through the volatile market. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market weakened overall last week, with long - term bond yields rising significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.30% cumulatively last week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.46bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose slightly by 0.09bp, with the term spread continuing to widen. [3] - From November 24th to 28th, the bond market showed different trends each day. It was generally under pressure from Monday to Thursday due to various factors such as stock market performance and rumors of new regulations. On Friday, it recovered due to the weakening expectation of November PMI and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. [3] 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 140 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 64 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 716 billion yuan, an increase of 229.5 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 477.5 billion yuan, an increase of 134.3 billion yuan. The issuance volume of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds increased compared with the previous week. The net financing amount of local government bonds increased, while that of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased. [9] - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiple of 4 issued Treasury bonds was 2.52 times, that of 20 issued policy - financial bonds was 3.80 times, and that of 116 issued local government bonds was 18.59 times. [13] 2. Last Week's Important Events - In November, China's manufacturing PMI index was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from October, in line with market expectations mainly due to the recent efforts of growth - stabilizing policies and positive results from China - US economic and trade talks. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from October. Looking forward, the manufacturing PMI index may decline in December due to factors such as the impact of US high tariffs on global trade and China's exports and the continued adjustment of the domestic real - estate market. [13] 3. Real - Economy Observation - Most high - frequency data on the production side declined last week, including blast furnace operating rates, petroleum asphalt plant operating rates, daily pig iron production, and semi - steel tire operating rates. [14] - On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, while the CCFI index declined slightly. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase slightly. [14] - In terms of prices, pork prices first rose and then fell, showing an overall downward trend, while most commodity prices rose, including copper, crude oil, and rebar prices. [14] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net injection of funds through open - market operations last week was 435.8 billion yuan. [25] - R007 and DR007 both rose, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock commercial banks rose, the national and joint - stock direct - discount rates for various terms rose, the volume of pledged repurchase transactions decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market first decreased and then increased, showing an overall downward trend. [26][27][28]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the external environment improved significantly, and the equity market rebounded with fluctuations. The strength of small and micro - cap stocks boosted the underlying stocks of convertible bonds. However, due to the impact of Vanke's bond extension event, the convertible bond market was the primary target for "fixed - income +" funds to reduce positions during net redemptions because of its good liquidity, resulting in a slight decline and a significant digestion of the previously rapidly rising valuation level. The convertible bond ETFs were divided, with a total net redemption of RMB 1.345 billion in convertible bonds. - Looking ahead, factors such as the new regulations for bond funds and year - end profit - taking sentiment increase the uncertainty on the demand side of the convertible bond market, amplifying price fluctuations. However, the basic pattern of weak supply and strong demand in the convertible bond market is unlikely to change substantially, and the impact is expected to be limited. The large - cap bottom - position convertible bonds with rapidly falling valuations have significant left - hand layout value. In the short term, convertible bonds are expected to follow the equity market in a high - to - low, structural market. After the Central Economic Work Conference provides direction for the market, an end - of - year pre - emptive market is expected to start, with hard - tech, new - consumption, and anti - involution - related convertible bonds remaining the key directions [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On November 25, the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Development of 'Artificial Intelligence +' Energy", proposing eight categories of scenarios, 37 key tasks, and more than a hundred specific applications to accelerate the application of artificial intelligence in the energy field. It plans to organize "Artificial Intelligence +" energy pilot projects to explore a new paradigm for the integrated development of "Artificial Intelligence +" energy [3]. - On November 27, six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand to Further Promote Consumption", proposing five measures and setting phased development goals. By 2027, three trillion - level consumption areas and ten billion - level consumption hotspots are expected to be formed [3]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major equity market indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 1.40%, 3.56%, and 4.54% respectively. Overseas, the US retail data was lower than expected, and the core PPI increase also declined, leading to a resurgence of the December interest - rate cut expectation. Coupled with new progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, most global capital markets rebounded, and commodities generally rose. Domestically, the equity market rebounded with fluctuations, but trading volume hit a nearly four - month low due to a wait - and - see attitude. Small and micro - cap stocks strengthened significantly, and there was policy speculation ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference. Vanke experienced a double - kill in stocks and bonds due to bond extension and market - based debt disposal rumors [5]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Major convertible bond market indices fell collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.27%, 0.50%, and 0.01% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of RMB 61.571 billion, a marginal decrease of RMB 4.105 billion from the previous week. The convertible bond ETFs were divided, with a total net redemption of RMB 1.345 billion in convertible bonds. Structurally, small - cap convertible bonds outperformed last week, and low - rated and high - priced convertible bonds rose against the trend, while high - rated and large - cap convertible bonds underperformed. In terms of valuation, the conversion value of the convertible bond market increased marginally to the 75.3% quantile since 2020, but the convertible bond price decreased marginally, and the valuation level dropped significantly by 7.8 percentage points to the 49.9% quantile. In terms of trading sentiment, the trading activity of both underlying stocks and convertible bonds declined [7][8]. - **Industry Performance**: Most convertible bonds in various industries rose last week. Convertible bonds in the steel and building materials industries led with average increases of over 2% and 1%, respectively, while those in the food and beverage and transportation industries fell by over 0.5%. In terms of valuation, the average conversion premium rate quantile since 2020 decreased by 13.03 percentage points to the 48.07% quantile, and the median conversion premium rate quantile decreased by 11.35 percentage points to the 48.54% quantile. Convertible bonds in industries such as household appliances, food and beverage, building decoration, and automobiles followed the upward trend more slowly, and their valuation quantiles decreased by more than 20 percentage points [10]. - **Individual Bonds**: Among 401 convertible bonds, 208 rose and 181 fell. Among the rising bonds, Dazhong Convertible Bond and Chun 23 Convertible Bond led the market with increases of over 14% and 13% respectively, benefiting from the lithium - mining and consumer - electronics markets. Tianyuan Convertible Bond also strengthened significantly, rising by over 10%. Among the falling bonds, Bo 23 Convertible Bond, Wei 24 Convertible Bond, and Xinhua Convertible Bond fell significantly by over 14%, 9%, and 8% respectively under the expectation of early redemption [11]. Primary Market - **Issuance and Listing**: No new convertible bonds were issued last week, Zhuomei Convertible Bond was listed, and no convertible bonds were delisted. As of November 28, the outstanding scale of the convertible bond market was RMB 565.308 billion, a decrease of RMB 168.585 billion from the beginning of the year and a decrease of RMB 33.28 billion from the previous week. Zhuomei Convertible Bond had a 57.3% daily limit on the first - listing day and rose by over 74.9% in the first week, with a conversion premium rate of 92.69% as of last Friday, exceeding the market median level [30]. - **Conversion and Redemption**: Ten convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5% last week, an increase of three from the previous week. Among them, Qibin Convertible Bond, Wei 24 Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, and Yuguang Convertible Bond announced early redemption, and Xinhua Convertible Bond and Yong 02 Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger early redemption. Mingdian Zhuan 02, Fenghuo Convertible Bond, Ying 19 Convertible Bond, and Dongfeng Convertible Bond are about to expire and be delisted [31]. - **Issuance Progress**: The issuance of convertible bonds by Shang Sheng Electronics was approved by the exchange, and the issuance of convertible bonds by Lianrui New Materials was approved by the CSRC. As of last Friday, seven convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC and waiting to be issued, with a total scale of RMB 4.718 billion, and six convertible bonds passed the review committee, with a total scale of RMB 7.458 billion [32]. - **Clause Tracking**: No convertible bonds announced a downward revision of the conversion price last week, and four convertible bonds announced early redemption. Tianneng Convertible Bond and Lanfan Convertible Bond announced that the board of directors proposed a downward revision of the conversion price; Sanfang Convertible Bond and Jin 23 Convertible Bond announced no downward revision of the conversion price; Qixiang Zhuan 2, Changhong Convertible Bond, and Lepu Zhuan 2 announced that they were about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price. Zhongneng Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, Wei 24 Convertible Bond, and Zhongqi Convertible Bond announced early redemption; Fuxin Convertible Bond announced no early redemption; Nenghui Convertible Bond, Meinuo Convertible Bond, Shenglan Convertible Bond, Limin Convertible Bond, Huamao Convertible Bond, and Xinhua Convertible Bond announced that they were expected to trigger the early - redemption condition [34].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, aligning with market expectations[1] - The manufacturing new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, driven by the implementation of the "two 500 billion" growth stabilization policies[2] - The manufacturing production index rebounded to 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to non-contraction territory[3] Economic Factors - The recent "anti-involution" policies have led to a rise in raw material prices, with the main raw material price index increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%[4] - The production expectations index for manufacturing improved by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers[5] - The construction PMI rose to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, supported by the completion of 500 billion new policy financial tools[7] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, marking the first entry into contraction territory for the year[6] - The service sector's decline is attributed to weakened consumer demand and significant adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall macroeconomic environment remains stable but shows signs of weakness, with the comprehensive PMI output index falling below the equilibrium line for the first time this year[8] - Projections indicate a potential decline in the manufacturing PMI to around 49.1% in December, influenced by external trade pressures and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 24, the liquidity was ample, with major repo rates hovering at low levels; the bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation; the convertible bond market's main indices followed the upward trend, and most convertible bond issues rose; yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally declined, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with U.S. President Trump, emphasizing that the Busan meeting had set the right course for China - U.S. relations, and both sides should maintain the positive momentum [3] - On November 25, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 10 billion yuan in November, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - overs, in line with market expectations [3] - As of November 21, the issuance of science - innovation bonds in the inter - bank market exceeded 530 billion yuan, with the proportion of issuance scale exceeding 10% for the first time, 5 percentage points higher than before [4] 3.1.2 International News - On November 24, Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly signaled dovish stances, with Waller advocating a rate cut at the next meeting and Daly supporting a December rate cut [5][6] 3.1.3 Commodities - On November 24, international crude oil futures prices turned up, while international natural gas prices turned down. WTI January crude oil futures rose 1.34% to $58.84 per barrel, Brent January crude oil futures rose 1.29% to $63.37 per barrel, COMEX December gold futures rose 0.36% to $4094.2 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.55% to $4.506 per ounce [7] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On November 24, the central bank conducted 338.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan as 283 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day [9] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On November 24, the liquidity was ample, with major repo rates hovering at low levels. DR001 dropped 0.22bp to 1.319%, and DR007 rose 2.95bp to 1.470% [10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On November 24, the bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation with lower trading volume. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8120%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 remained flat at 1.8740% [13] - **Bond Tendering Results**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds including 25贴现国债72, 25附息国债23, etc., was provided, covering details such as term, issuance scale, winning yield, and bid - to - cover ratios [14] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - market Transaction Anomalies**: On November 24, no credit bond transaction prices deviated by more than 10% [15] - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies such as Fanhai Holdings, Fangyuan Real Estate, and Baolong Industry had bond - related events including non - payment, extension of redemption dates, and holder meetings [16] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On November 24, the A - share market rose, with over 4200 stocks increasing. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 0.05%, 0.37%, and 0.31% respectively. The convertible bond market also rebounded, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices rising 0.22%, 0.14%, and 0.34% respectively [17] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: News such as the approval of Shang Sheng Electronics' convertible bond issuance and the possible early redemption of Nenghui Convertible Bond were reported [24] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Treasury Market**: On November 24, yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 5bp to 3.46%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 2bp to 4.04%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 3bp to 58bp, and the 5/30 - year spread narrowed by 2bp to 107bp [20][21] - **European Bond Market**: On November 24, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally declined, except for Germany and Spain where yields remained unchanged [23] - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds of multiple companies such as Ctrip Group, Pinduoduo, and iQiyi were presented, including daily changes, credit entities, bond balances, and other information [25]