Report Summary 1. Market Conditions on January 21 - The overall liquidity situation was stable and loose; the bond market showed a moderately strong oscillation; the main convertible bond market indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains; yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, while yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies generally increased [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was influenced by better-than-expected liquidity during the tax payment period, showing a moderately strong oscillation. The convertible bond market followed the equity market's upward trend [16][22] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: - The central bank aims to accelerate the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and promote high - quality development of the modern payment system [4] - In 2025, the industrial and information technology sectors contributed over 40% to economic growth, with various industries showing positive growth trends [5] - The tax policies for innovative enterprise CDRs during the pilot phase are extended to December 31, 2027 [7] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to stabilize the real estate market this year and implement relevant systems [7] - **International News**: - Trump announced an agreement framework on Greenland with NATO, suspending planned tariffs on Europe [8] - **Commodities**: - International crude oil futures prices rose, and the international natural gas price increased by nearly 30% [9][10] 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations**: - On January 21, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 122.7 billion yuan [12] - **Funding Rates**: - The overall liquidity was stable and loose. DR001 decreased by 5.00bp to 1.321%, and DR007 increased by 0.04bp to 1.495% [13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Yield Trends**: - Due to better - than - expected liquidity during the tax payment period, the bond market was moderately strong. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8335%, and that of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 decreased by 0.45bp to 1.9455% [16] - **Bond Tendering**: - Multiple bonds were issued on January 21, with details such as issue scale, winning yield, and multiples provided [17] - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: - Four industrial bonds had a price deviation of over 10%, including significant drops and a sharp increase [18][19] - **Credit Bond Events**: - Various companies had bond - related events such as bond extensions, cancellations of bond issuance, and performance announcements [21] - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: - The A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increasing by 0.08%, 0.70%, and 0.54% respectively. The convertible bond market also rebounded, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shenzhen Convertible Bond, and Shanghai Convertible Bond indices rising by 0.90%, 0.89%, and 0.90% respectively [21][22] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: - Some convertible bonds announced online subscriptions, potential downward revisions of conversion prices, and early redemptions [24] - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: - Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, with the 10 - year yield decreasing by 4bp to 4.26%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year Treasuries narrowed [25] - **European Bond Market**: - Yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased, except for the UK where it remained unchanged [27] - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: - Details of daily price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on January 21 were provided [29]

央行连续 11 个月加量操作 MLF；资金面边际收敛，债市震荡调整 【内容摘要】1 月 22 日，税期走款，资金面边际收敛；债市震荡调整；转债市场主要指数集 体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益 率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【央行行长潘功胜：继续维护好金融市场平稳运行，支持资本市场稳定发展】1 月 22 日，央 行行长潘功胜在接受采访时表示，2026 年，央行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进 经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应， 为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五" 良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。潘功胜谈到，总量政策方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货 币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预 期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。央行还将做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会 综合融资成本低位运行。结构性政策方面，央行已在今年年初先行出台一批货币金融政策，对 结构性货币政策工具的政策要素作了优化完善。 【央行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the credit bond issuance interest rate center further declined. After the launch of the science - technology board in the bond market in May, the issuance of science - innovation bonds significantly increased. The continuous growth of industrial bond issuance drove the overall credit bond issuance to reach a new historical high. The net financing of credit bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with only a net financing gap in March [2]. - The financing differentiation pattern between urban investment bonds and industrial bonds intensified in 2025. Urban investment bond issuance continued to shrink, while industrial bond issuance increased significantly driven by the surge in central enterprise bonds. From the perspective of issuer qualifications, high - grade bonds expanded, while medium - and low - grade bonds contracted [2]. - In 2025, the industrial bond issuance scale grew steadily. Most industries saw an increase in industrial bond issuance, and the issuance was concentrated in a few industries. The issuance was also concentrated among leading enterprises, and large central enterprises contributed significantly to net financing [2][4]. - In 2025, urban investment bond issuance remained in a contraction trend, and the net financing gap widened year - on - year. Most regions saw a decline in issuance and an expansion of the net financing gap. The net financing gap of AA - rated urban investment bonds narrowed due to the decrease in maturity volume, but the net financing of medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds in some regions turned negative [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Credit Bond Issuance in 2025 1.1 Overall Credit Bond Issuance - In 2025, the credit environment was loose, and the bond market yield was low. With policy dividends, industrial bond issuance increased significantly, driving the continuous expansion of credit bond issuance and a substantial increase in net financing. The total credit bond issuance was 13.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. The net financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4924 billion yuan year - on - year [7]. - The monthly issuance rhythm showed a "low - front, stable - back" characteristic. Most months had a year - on - year increase in issuance, and only March had a significant net financing gap due to interest rate hikes [12]. 1.2 Issuance Interest Rate - In 2025, the average credit bond issuance interest rate fluctuated at a low level, and the center moved down. The average issuance interest rate was 2.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 35.96bps. The main reasons were the loose monetary policy and the narrowing of credit spreads [15][16]. - Throughout the year, the issuance interest rates of major - term and all - grade credit bonds showed two rounds of rising and then falling. The interest rate was affected by factors such as the tightening of the capital market, policy adjustments, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [22]. 1.3 Issuance Term - In 2025, the weighted - average issuance term of credit bonds was 3.43 years, a year - on - year decrease of 0.17 years. It showed an upward trend in the first half of the year and a downward trend in the second half, mainly due to the increase in financing costs and the significant shortening of the issuance term of central enterprises [23]. 1.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In 2025, the scale of cancelled credit bond issuance was 276.16 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.34%. The cancellation was mainly due to market interest rate fluctuations and the adjustment of the financing strategies of central and local state - owned enterprises [28]. 2. Credit Bond Financing Structure in 2025 2.1 Financing Performance of Different - Grade Issuers - In 2025, the credit bond market showed a differentiation trend of high - grade expansion and medium - and low - grade contraction. The issuance of AAA - rated, AA + - rated, and AA - rated credit bonds was 9.80 trillion, 2.95 trillion, and 1.10 trillion yuan respectively [35]. 2.2 Financing Performance of Different - Nature Issuers - The credit bond market continued the differentiation trend of shrinking urban investment bond issuance and increasing industrial bond issuance. In 2025, the issuance of urban investment, industrial local state - owned enterprises, central enterprises, and private enterprises was 3.27 trillion, 5.44 trillion, 4.56 trillion, and 0.68 trillion yuan respectively [38]. 2.3 Financing Performance of Different Bond Types - In 2025, the bond types with large issuance scales were medium - term notes, ultra - short - term financing bills, private placement bonds, and general corporate bonds. The issuance of general corporate bonds and private placement bonds increased by more than 10% year - on - year [45]. - Low - grade issuers had a significantly higher proportion of private placement bond issuance. AAA - rated credit bonds were mainly issued in public - offering varieties, while AA + - rated and AA - rated credit bonds had a high proportion of private placement bonds [48][49]. 3. Industrial Bond Issuance in 2025 3.1 By Industry - In 2025, industrial bond issuance showed the characteristics of growth in most industries, contraction in some industries, and high industry concentration. Four industries had issuance exceeding one trillion yuan, and the public utility industry contributed the most to the increase in issuance [50]. 3.2 From the Issuer Dimension - Industrial bond issuance was concentrated among leading enterprises, and central enterprises became the core force of bond financing. The top 100 issuers contributed 43.6% of the issuance scale, and large central enterprises had a significant increase in issuance and net financing [55]. 4. Urban Investment Bond Issuance in 2025 4.1 Regional Financing Performance - In 2025, most regions saw a contraction in urban investment bond issuance and an expansion of the net financing gap. Only a few regions had an increase in issuance or positive net financing [61]. 4.2 Grade - Based Financing Performance - In 2025, the net financing of medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds in many places turned negative, while the net financing gap of AA - rated urban investment bonds narrowed due to the decrease in maturity volume [62].

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Economic Indicators - The LPR for 1-year and 5-year periods remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of January 2026, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates and stable market interest rates, particularly in the interbank lending market[2] - Economic growth is projected to rebound to approximately 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, despite challenges in the real estate market and weakened investment and consumption[3] Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - There is potential for a comprehensive policy rate cut in Q2 2026, which may lead to a decrease in LPR pricing to stimulate consumption and investment[3] - The 2026 inflation rate is expected to remain low, allowing for a moderately accommodative monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts[4] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts in 2026 may reduce constraints on domestic monetary policy adjustments[5] - Regulatory measures may be implemented to significantly lower the 5-year LPR to address high residential mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield approached 1.90%, attracting more allocation buyers. The stock market cooled due to regulatory measures on margin trading, and the central bank announced a structural interest rate cut, leading to a generally strong bond market with declining long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields also declined, with a larger decline than long - term yields, steepening the yield curve [2]. - This week (the week of January 19), the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the Q4 2025 economic growth rate continued to decline, factors such as stable employment, rising prices, policy optimizations, and expected export growth in Q1 2026 suggest a rebound in GDP growth. With no clear incremental drivers, the bond market will continue to oscillate. The stock market's "spring rally" expectation may divert funds from the bond market, and the tax - payment month in January will put pressure on the capital market, but the central bank is expected to maintain liquidity. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.80% and 1.90% [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Bond Market Review - **Secondary Market**: The bond market rebounded last week, with significantly declining long - term bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract rose 0.27% for the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3.58bp, and the 1 - year yield dropped 4.63bp compared to the previous Friday, widening the term spread [3]. - **Primary Market**: 44 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 14 from the previous week. The issuance volume was 4516 billion yuan, a decrease of 3116 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 1925 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 5417 billion yuan. The issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds all decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable, with an average subscription multiple of 3.53 for Treasury bonds, 3.92 for policy - bank bonds, and 19.54 for local government bonds [16][17]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - **December Import and Export Data**: In December 2025, exports in US dollars increased 6.6% year - on - year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points from November. The full - year export growth was 5.5%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous year. Imports in December increased 5.7% year - on - year, accelerating by 3.8 percentage points from November, and the full - year import growth was 0.0%, 1.0 percentage point lower than the previous year. The strong export growth was due to external demand, trade transfer, and growth in chip and car exports. The import growth was driven by export growth and increased oil import demand [19]. - **December Financial Data**: In December 2025, new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan, 800 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new social financing scale was 22075 billion yuan, 6462 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of December, M2 increased 8.5% year - on - year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and M1 increased 3.8% year - on - year, decelerating by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The decrease in new loans was "strong in enterprises, weak in residents," and the decrease in social financing was mainly due to government bond financing [19]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - **Production**: High - frequency production data showed mixed trends last week. The blast furnace operating rate and daily hot - metal output declined, while the asphalt plant operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased [22]. - **Demand**: The BDI index continued to decline, while the CCFI index continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased [22]. - **Prices**: Pork prices continued to rise slightly, and most commodity prices increased, including copper, oil, and rebar [22]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net open - market capital injection was 11128 billion yuan last week [31]. - R007 and DR007 both declined. The issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit fluctuated upward. The 3M national - share direct - discount rate continued to rise. The volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio first decreased then increased, with an overall decline [32][35][36].

央行打出结构性货币政策工具的"组合拳"；资金面明显改善，债市偏强震荡 【内容摘要】 1 月 15 日，资金面明显改善；债市整体偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体上涨， 转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分 化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》】1 月 16 日出 版的第 2 期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文章 《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》。文章提出了当前和今后一个时期城市工作的总体要求，强 调要以新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精 神，坚持和加强党的全面领导，认真践行人民城市理念，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持因地 制宜、分类指导，以建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市为目标，以 推动城市高质量发展为主题，以坚持城市内涵式发展为主线，以推进城市更新为重要抓手，大 力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升、绿色转型、文脉赓续、治理增效，牢牢守住城市 安全底线，走出一条中国特色城市现代化新路子。 【牢牢守 ...

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, down from 4.8% in Q3, with an annual growth rate of 5.0%, matching the previous year[1][2] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was 1.6 percentage points, significantly higher than the ten-year average of 0.4 percentage points[8] Industrial Production - In December 2025, industrial output increased by 5.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from November, driven by strong export performance[11][12] - The cumulative industrial value added for 2025 grew by 5.9%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous year, indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector[13] Consumption - Retail sales in December 2025 grew by 0.9%, a decline from 1.3% in November, with an annual growth rate of 3.7%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous year[15][17] - The tightening of consumption subsidy policies and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market have negatively impacted consumer confidence[17] Investment - Fixed asset investment in 2025 decreased by 3.8%, a decline that accelerated from the previous year's drop of 2.6%[20][26] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) fell by 2.2%, with a significant drop of 12.2% in December alone, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[21][26] Outlook for 2026 - GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 4.8% in 2026, supported by more proactive macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and stabilizing investment[3][10] - The focus will be on accelerating the development of high-tech manufacturing and stabilizing real estate policies to support economic growth[4][10]

Loan Data - In December 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 910 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 520 billion[1] - For the entire year of 2025, new RMB loans totaled 16.27 trillion, a decrease of 1.82 trillion compared to the previous year, primarily due to a declining real estate market and weak investment and consumption[7] - December's corporate loans showed a year-on-year increase of 5.8 trillion, while residential loans experienced a negative growth of 916 billion, reflecting weak consumer demand[6] Social Financing - In December 2025, the total social financing (social financing scale) was 22.075 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 646.2 billion, but a month-on-month decrease of 285.1 billion[1][8] - For the year 2025, social financing increased by 3.34 trillion, with government bond financing and corporate bond financing being the main contributors to this growth[9] Monetary Supply - As of the end of December, M2 growth was 8.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, driven by high government bond financing converting into deposits[10] - M1 growth was 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weak consumer and investment activity amid ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[10] Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, indicating potential for further policy rate cuts of 20-30 basis points in 2026[3][12] - There remains a potential for a 1.3 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, suggesting ample room for monetary easing in 2026[13] - The forecast for new RMB loans in 2026 is approximately 17.5 trillion, an increase of about 1.2 trillion from 2025, driven by expected recovery in corporate loans despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On January 16, the liquidity gradually returned to a loose state, with major repurchase rates declining; the bond market generally warmed up; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues saw price increases; yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally went up, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also mostly increased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The central bank and the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate mortgages to no less than 30% on January 17 [4]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration extended the tax incentives for public rental housing until December 31, 2027, on January 16 [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability, strengthening monitoring, and guiding long - term investment at its 2026 system work meeting on January 15 [5]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration called for promoting the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and supporting the resolution of financing platform debt risks at its 2026 regulatory work meeting on January 15 [5]. - **International News** - On January 16, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman called on the Fed to be ready to cut interest rates if the labor market does not improve sustainably [7]. - **Commodities** - On January 16, international crude oil futures prices turned up while international natural gas prices turned down. WTI February crude oil futures rose $0.25, or 0.42%, to $59.44 per barrel; Brent March crude oil futures rose 0.58% to $64.13 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $4597 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly increase of 2.12%; NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.11% to $3.109 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations** - On January 16, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 86.7 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 52.7 billion yuan after 34 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On January 16, the liquidity gradually loosened, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 4.73bp to 1.320%, and DR007 dropped 5.94bp to 1.443% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Yield Trends of Cash Bonds** - On January 16, due to the loosening liquidity and the decline of the stock market, the bond market generally warmed up. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 dropped 1.20bp to 1.8430%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250215 dropped 0.40bp to 1.9640% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Results** - The 3 - year 25 Jinchu 13 (Increment 7) was issued with a scale of 6 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.6176%, a full - field multiple of 4.66, and a marginal multiple of 5.32 [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Abnormal Secondary - Market Transactions** - On January 16, the trading prices of 3 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "21 Vanke 06" rose over 10%, "23 Vanke 01" rose over 21%, and "23 Vanke MTN003" rose over 39% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Shenye Group cancelled the issuance of "26 Shenye MTN001" due to market reasons. Moody's revoked Hailong Holdings' "Ca" corporate family rating at the company's request. Fitch downgraded Wanda Commercial and Wanda Hong Kong's long - term foreign - currency issuer ratings to "RD" and then upgraded them to "CC". Guang'an Aizhong expected its net profit in 2025 to be negative. Gome Electric was listed as a dishonest executor with a total execution target of 116 million yuan. The Shanghai Stock Exchange publicly condemned Jiangsu Baoguangli Video Technology Group for failing to disclose its interim report on time [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On January 16, the three major A - share indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index dropped 0.26%, 0.18%, and 0.20% respectively, with a total trading volume of 3.06 trillion yuan. The main convertible bond market indices rose collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index, and Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.47%, 0.59%, and 0.31% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 103.48 billion yuan, an increase of 8.109 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among 388 convertible bond issues, 236 rose, 139 fell, and 13 remained flat [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On January 17, Changgao Electric and Haitian Co., Ltd. received CSRC approval for convertible bond issuance. On January 16, Meinuo Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision of the conversion price; Changqi Convertible Bond, Oujing Convertible Bond, Jidong Convertible Bond, Aojia Convertible Bond, and Mars Convertible Bond were about to trigger the downward - revision clause of the conversion price. Guanglian Convertible Bond, Jiamei Convertible Bond, and Fumiao Convertible Bond announced early redemption; Huazheng Convertible Bond and Daotong Convertible Bond were expected to trigger the early - redemption clause [26]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On January 16, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally went up. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 3bp to 3.59%, and the 10 - year yield rose 7bp to 4.24%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield spread widened by 4bp to 65bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp to 101bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 4bp to 2.33% [22][23][24]. - **European Bond Market** - On January 16, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased. The 10 - year German government bond yield rose 3bp to 2.84%, and those of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 3bp, 1bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively [25]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds (as of the close on January 16)** - The prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the price of New World Development's bond rose 13.6%, while that of Bilibili's bond fell 1.3% [27].

Group 1: Inflation Overview - December inflation in the U.S. showed a moderate performance, confirming the downward trend in inflation despite concerns over November's data distortion due to government shutdown effects[4] - The overall CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI year-on-year growth was steady at 2.6%, both aligning with expectations[4] - The decline in energy prices, which fell from 4.2% in November to 2.3% in December, significantly contributed to the moderate inflation figures[5] Group 2: Price Dynamics - The prices of used cars, a key indicator, dropped from 3.6% in November to 1.6% in December, indicating a significant easing in core inflation pressures[5] - Food prices increased from 2.6% in November to 3.1% in December, driven by higher dining out costs and seasonal consumption effects[6] - Medical service prices rebounded to 3.5%, reflecting resilience in service consumption despite overall inflation moderation[6] Group 3: Future Inflation Outlook - The inflation trajectory for 2026 is expected to show moderate declines, influenced by tariff costs being passed to end prices, but countered by falling housing prices and energy prices due to oversupply[7] - The impact of tariffs is anticipated to peak in the first half of 2026, with inflation likely to rise initially before declining in the latter half of the year[7] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The moderate inflation data in December is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in January, as current policy rates are near neutral levels[8] - The labor market remains stable, with no significant deterioration, which does not support the case for further rate cuts[10] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve due to ongoing investigations may also deter premature rate cuts, as this could undermine market confidence[10]