Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided Core Viewpoints - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to fluctuate between 1.83% and 1.88%. The improvement in cross-year funds is expected to support the continued strength of short-term bonds, and the yield curve may steepen further [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Bond Market Review Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated last week, with short-term bond yields declining significantly and long-term yields rising slightly. The 10-year Treasury futures main contract rose 0.20% cumulatively. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.68bp from the previous Friday, while the 1-year Treasury yield dropped 6.75bp, and the term spread widened significantly [5] - On December 22, the bond market weakened under pressure due to stable LPR quotes and rising stock markets. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.09bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.09% [6] - On December 23, the bond market strengthened due to the entry of allocation funds. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.63bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.26% [6] - On December 24, the bond market oscillated under the influence of multiple rumors. The 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.04bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.02% [6] - On December 25, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, with short-term bonds remaining warm and medium - and long-term bonds weakening. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.30bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.02% [6] - On December 26, the bond market warmed up due to loose funds and early - year allocation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.10bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.10% [6][7] Primary Market - Nine interest rate bonds were issued last week, 26 less than the previous week, with a total issuance of 210.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 166 billion yuan. The net financing was 174.8 billion yuan, an increase of 153.9 billion yuan. There were no policy - financial bonds issued or repaid. Treasury issuance and net financing increased, while local bond issuance decreased, and net financing also decreased [15] - The overall subscription demand for interest rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiple for 3 issued Treasuries was 2.74 times, and for 6 local bonds, it was 15.17 times [16] 2. Last Week's Important Events - The central bank conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in December was 100 billion yuan, which was the tenth consecutive month of increased roll - over, meeting market expectations. This was to support the liquidity of the banking system and help stabilize growth and expectations at the end of the year [18] 3. Real Economy Observation - High - frequency production data showed mixed trends last week. Blast furnace operating rates and petroleum asphalt plant operating rates continued to decline, while semi - steel tire operating rates and daily hot metal production rebounded [19] - In terms of demand, the BDI index continued to decline, while the CCFI index continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase [19] - In terms of prices, pork prices fell slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including copper and oil prices, and the rebar price fell slightly [19] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net investment in the open market last week was 155.2 billion yuan [26][28] - R007 and DR007 both rose, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks declined overall, the national - share direct discount rate increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase [31][33][36]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded eight consecutive positive days, and convertible bonds also saw increased trading volume and price hikes. The convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks, with significantly improved trading activity. The small - cap style continued to outperform, and high - price and small - cap convertible bond indices led the gains. - In the short term, the convertible bond market may experience increased volatility and enter a volatile phase. This is because the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the critical 4000 - point level after eight consecutive positive days, and the convertible bond valuation has increased marginally. Additionally, there may be liquidity impacts before the holiday, and the continuous outflow of funds from convertible bond ETFs indicates a relatively cautious outlook among low - risk - preference investors. - Overall, hard - tech themes with obvious policy catalysts or industrialization prospects are still expected to perform well in the cross - year and spring rallies, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Recently, the listing pace of new convertible bond issues has accelerated, and convertible bond subscription remains highly cost - effective. However, the high - flying sectors such as commercial aerospace and lithium - battery may have relatively lower cost - effectiveness after their short - term price increases [3][11]. Policy Tracking - On December 24, eight departments including the central bank issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", aiming to deepen financial reform, innovation, and opening - up, and comprehensively improve the financial service system of the corridor, which will support high - quality development, drive high - level opening - up of inland areas, and contribute to the overall development of the country and global integration. - On December 26, the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund jointly established by the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance was launched. It emphasizes support for "hard - tech", adheres to the "early - stage and small - scale investment" principle, shares venture capital risks, and strengthens post - investment management. Three regional funds have been established and have signed a number of intended sub - funds and direct investment projects in fields like integrated circuits, quantum technology, and biotechnology [4][5]. Secondary Market Equity Market - Last week, major domestic equity market indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increased by 1.88%, 3.53%, and 3.90% respectively. Overseas, the US stock market rose, the US dollar and US Treasury yields declined slightly, and most global capital markets closed higher. In China, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate above 7 boosted market confidence, and the equity market showed significant volume - driven growth, with the cross - year rally gradually starting. The commercial aerospace and intelligent driving sectors, as well as the non - ferrous metals sector, performed well [7]. - Specifically, the daily trading volume in the A - share market was high throughout the week, ranging from 1.88 trillion yuan to 2.18 trillion yuan. Different sectors were active on different days, such as the Hainan Free Trade Port concept, semiconductor industry chain, and commercial aerospace concept [8]. Convertible Bond Market - The major convertible bond market indices rose collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index increased by 1.64%, 1.53%, and 1.75% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of 800.58 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 164.46 billion yuan compared to the previous week. - The small - cap style continued to outperform in the convertible bond market. The Wind Convertible Bond High - Price Index led the gains among sub - indices with a 3.80% increase, and small - cap convertible bonds also showed strong performance with a gain of over 2%. High - rated and large - cap convertible bonds lagged. - In terms of historical quantiles, the overall price level of underlying stocks changed slightly, the conversion value increased marginally, driving the convertible bond price to rise further. The valuation level also increased, and the trading sentiment improved significantly. - In terms of industries, most convertible bonds in various industries rose. Convertible bonds in the national defense and military industry led the market with an average increase of over 7%, and those in the building materials industry also performed well. Only convertible bonds in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage industries declined slightly. - In terms of valuation, most convertible bond valuations in various industries decreased. The average conversion premium rate since 2020 decreased by 2.16 percentage points to the 52.60% quantile, and the median conversion premium rate decreased by 1.90 percentage points to the 49.97% quantile. - In terms of individual bonds, most convertible bonds rose. Among the rising bonds, Jiamei Convertible Bond rose by over 37%, followed by Zai 22 Convertible Bond and Mengsheng Convertible Bond, which rose by over 30% and 29% respectively. Among the falling bonds, Huati Convertible Bond led the decline with a drop of over 17% [9][10][12][13]. Primary Market - Last week, Jin 05 Convertible Bond and Shuangle Convertible Bond were issued, and Puxin Convertible Bond was listed. Six convertible bonds were redeemed early, and three convertible bonds matured and were delisted. As of December 26, the outstanding scale of the convertible bond market was 558.791 billion yuan, a decrease of 175.102 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year and 8.35 billion yuan compared to the previous week. - The issuance scale last week was 2.472 billion yuan. Jin 05 Convertible Bond is issued by Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology Co., Ltd., a global power equipment supplier. Shuangle Convertible Bond is issued by Shuangle Pigment Co., Ltd., which focuses on digital and intelligent transformation services. - Puxin Convertible Bond rose by 57.3% on its first trading day and over 64% in the first week. As of last Friday, its conversion premium rate reached 83.44%, exceeding the market median level. - Six convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5% last week, six less than the previous week. Some bonds have announced early redemptions or are expected to trigger early redemption conditions. - As of last Friday, three convertible bonds have been approved by the CSRC and are awaiting issuance, with a total scale of 3.429 billion yuan, and ten convertible bonds have passed the review committee, with a total scale of 8.515 billion yuan [36][37][39][40][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 23, the liquidity remained loose; the entry of allocation funds boosted the bond market to strengthen with fluctuations; the convertible bond market adjusted, with most convertible bond issues declining; yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally fell [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should serve the overall situation, optimize the layout of the state - owned economy, strengthen R & D of key core technologies, deepen reforms, and balance development and security [3] - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, central enterprises should play a key role in infrastructure construction, ensure the autonomy and controllability of the industrial chain, support technological self - reliance, serve national strategies, and deepen state - owned enterprise reforms [4] - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference stated that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the real estate market has great potential. It is necessary to establish a new development model, implement city - specific policies, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market [6] 3.1.2 International News - The U.S. GDP in Q3 grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations. Consumer spending was strong, while investment performance was divided, with non - residential investment slowing and residential investment dragging down the economy [7] - In October, U.S. durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, worse than expected. However, the year - on - year growth rate remained positive, and core orders showed resilience [8] 3.1.3 Commodities - On December 23, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and international natural gas prices rose by over 10%. Gold futures also saw an increase [9] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On December 23, the central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital withdrawal was 760 billion yuan [11] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On December 23, the liquidity remained loose. DR001 decreased by 0.14bp to 1.269%, and DR007 decreased by 2.32bp to 1.411%. Other funding rates also showed various changes [12][13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - On December 23, the bond market strengthened with fluctuations due to the obvious entry of allocation funds. Yields of 10 - year Treasury and China Development Bank bonds both decreased by 0.85bp. Yields of bonds across other maturities also generally declined [14][15] - There were no Treasury or China Development Bank bond issuances on that day [16] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On December 23, the trading prices of two industrial bonds deviated by over 10%, with "21 Vanke 06" falling by over 10% and "23 Vanke MTN001" rising by over 23% [17] - Multiple companies announced important events, including cancellations of proposals, legal disputes, disciplinary actions, and the completion of restructuring plans [20] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On December 23, the three major A - share indices rose. The convertible bond market adjusted, with major indices falling. The trading volume increased. Most convertible bond issues declined, with some issues rising or falling significantly [19] - Jin 05 Convertible Bond will start online subscription on December 25. Some convertible bonds announced early redemptions or were about to trigger early redemption conditions [25] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On December 23, yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 3bp, and the 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose by 1bp [22][23][24] - Yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally fell [26] - The prices of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds changed. The top 10 gainers and losers had different price movements [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the demand for cross - year funds increased, leading to a structural differentiation in the capital market. The bond market fluctuated and consolidated, while the convertible bond market's major indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined, and the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 4th quarter (111th in total) regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 was held on December 18. It proposed to leverage the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, maintain ample liquidity, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [3]. - On December 24, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on December 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan after considering the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month [4]. - Multiple departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support its high - quality development [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", with a total of 1679 items, a net increase of 205 items compared to the 2022 edition [5]. - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies on December 24, reducing the social security or tax payment requirements and allowing multi - child families to buy an additional property within the 5th Ring Road [6]. - **International News** - On December 24, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 13 was 1.923 million. Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 24, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices declined. WTI February crude futures fell 0.05% to $58.35 per barrel, Brent February crude futures fell 0.22% to $62.24 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.69% to $4.249 per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On December 24, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 46.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 24, due to the increasing cross - year demand from institutions, the capital market showed a structural differentiation. DR001 dropped 0.69bp to 1.262%, and DR007 dropped 3.05bp to 1.380% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On December 24, affected by multiple rumors such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and bond purchases, the bond market fluctuated and consolidated. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8975% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of 25 Discount Treasury Bond 82, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 81, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 25 is provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other data [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On December 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "22 Vanke 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 18% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Various companies announced events such as debt defaults, debt restructurings, asset sales, and equity transfers. For example, Sunac China completed its comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, and Wanda's credit ratings were downgraded [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On December 24, the three major A - share stock indices rose collectively, and the convertible bond market also increased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 0.62% respectively [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On December 25, Jin 05 Convertible Bond started its online subscription, and on December 24, Tianneng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price [23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On December 24, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.15%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries both narrowed by 2bp [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On December 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends. France's 10 - year government bond yield rose 1bp, Spain's dropped 1bp, and the UK's remained unchanged [24]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on December 24, price change information of various Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds is provided, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of bonds issued by companies such as Longfor Group and Wanda [26].

LPR 连续 7 个月保持不变；资金面延续宽松，债市承压走弱 【内容摘要】12 月 22 日，资金面保持宽松态势；12 月 LPR 报价继续持稳，叠加股市上涨，债 市承压走弱；转债市场跟随权益市场延续上行，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上 行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【LPR 连续 7 个月保持不变】12 月 22 日，央行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，1 年期 LPR 为 3.00%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.50%，均与上月持平，连续 7 个月保持不变。 【李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领导小组会议】12 月 22 日，中 共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领 导小组会议，深入研究《纲要草案》编制工作。李强指出，目前《纲要草案》的编制已经有了 较好基础，下一步要集中力量、精益求精做好修改完善工作。要着眼于更好发挥规划引领作用， 紧紧围绕推动高质量发展这个主题来设定指标、安排政策、谋划项目，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长。 【关于地方政府债务风险问题整改，财政部、 ...

美国劳动力市场走弱、核心通胀超预期放缓，金价延续上涨 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 2024 年 12 月 23 日 美国劳动力市场持续走弱，强化市场降息预期，带动金价延 续上涨。上周五（12 月 19 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五 上涨 0.95%至 979.90 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周 五上涨 0.90%至 4368.70 美元/盎司；现货方面，黄金 T+D 现 货价格上涨 1.14%至 975.82 元/克，伦敦金现货价格继续回升 0.97%至 4341.06 美元/盎司。具体来看，上周金价延续上涨， 一方面源于上周公布的美国 11 月非农失业率创四年来新高， 显示美国劳动力市场在持续降温，11 月核心 CPI 数据则超预 期放缓，强化了市场对未来美联储降息的预期，加之美元走弱， 均对金价形成有利支撑；另一方面，日本央行如期加息，但利 空提前消化，加息落地后，资金回归黄金中长期配置。 本周（12 月 22 日当周）金价料将偏强震荡。本周初国际金价 再度突破历史新高，一度突破 4500 美元/盎司，主要源于美国 11 月失业率再度印证劳动力市场走弱事实，令市 ...

Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, while maintaining a loose monetary environment[8] - The core CPI in Japan showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, indicating persistent inflation[8] - The UK central bank lowered rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations[11] Economic Data - In the US, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years, while non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations[18] - The US core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, the lowest since 2021, indicating easing inflation pressures[19] - In the UK, the CPI growth rate fell from 3.6% in October to 3.2% in November, below expectations[29] Fiscal Policy - Japan's supplementary budget for FY 2025 amounts to 18.3 trillion yen, with 64% funded by new government bonds[13] - The US defense authorization bill for FY 2026 totals $901 billion, including military pay raises and support for Ukraine[14] Bond Market - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose by 6.5 basis points to 2.02% following the interest rate hike[40] - The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 3 basis points to 4.16% amid softening inflation expectations[32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 19, the liquidity remained loose, the bond market continued to be bullish, the convertible bond market followed the equity market and continued to rise, most convertible bond issues increased, yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally increased, and 10-year government bond yields in major European economies generally rose [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The State Council executive meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing that all departments should implement the work to consolidate and expand the positive economic trend [4]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, together with China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, issued notices to support overseas institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase business to deepen the opening-up of the exchange bond market [5]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration released a draft for comments on the Asset-Liability Management Measures for Insurance Companies to strengthen supervision of the insurance industry's asset-liability [5]. - In November 2025, cross-border payments remained active, and securities investment fund flows became more stable, with a net inflow of $17.8 billion in cross-border funds from non-bank sectors [6]. 3.1.2 International News - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, and may continue to raise rates depending on economic and price conditions [7]. - New York Fed President John Williams said there is no urgency to cut rates further, strengthening the market's expectation of a short-term pause in rate cuts [8]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On December 19, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and international natural gas prices turned up. WTI January crude oil futures rose 0.91% to $56.66 per barrel, Brent February crude oil futures rose 1.09% to $60.47 per barrel, COMEX February gold futures rose 0.52% to $4,387.3 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 2.05% to $4.026 per ounce [9][10]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On December 19, the central bank conducted 7-day reverse repurchase operations worth 56.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% and 14-day reverse repurchase operations worth 100 billion yuan. With 120.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital injection was 35.7 billion yuan [12]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On December 19, the liquidity remained loose. DR001 fell 0.11bp to 1.271%, and DR007 rose 0.21bp to 1.441% [13]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On December 19, boosted by LPR rate cut expectations, the bond market continued to be bullish. By 20:00, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond active issue 250016 fell 0.70bp to 1.8350%, and the yield on the 10-year CDB bond active issue 250215 fell 1.55bp to 1.8920% [15]. - **Bond Tendering**: The issuance scale of the 3-year and 5-year Treasury bonds was 97 billion yuan and 99 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding winning yields of 1.3554% and 1.5603% [17]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Trading Anomalies**: On December 19, the trading prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "19 Shanghai Shimao MTN001" and "20 Shanghai Shimao MTN001" rose by more than 26% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies had events such as debt restructuring, being listed as an executor, being criticized for violations, and canceling bond issuances [20]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On December 19, the three major A-share indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed the equity market. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.38%, 0.27%, and 0.52% respectively. Most convertible bond issues rose [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On December 19, Changgao Electric's convertible bond issuance was approved, some convertible bonds proposed to lower the conversion price or were about to meet the conditions, and some were about to be redeemed early or met the early redemption conditions [24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On December 19, yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose. The 2-year and 10-year yields rose 2bp and 4bp to 3.48% and 4.16% respectively. The 2/10-year yield spread widened 2bp to 68bp, and the 5/30-year yield spread narrowed 2bp to 112bp. The 10-year TIPS break-even inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.24% [22][23][25]. - **European Bond Market**: On December 19, 10-year government bond yields in major European economies generally rose. German, French, Italian, Spanish, and British 10-year yields rose 4bp, 5bp, 4bp, 5bp, and 5bp respectively [26]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on December 19, some Chinese dollar bonds had significant price changes, with some rising and some falling [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - With market sentiment boosted, convertible bonds are expected to maintain a strong, oscillating upward trend in the short term. However, near the year - end, some funds' profit - taking needs may cause short - term shocks, especially the volatility of high - priced convertible bonds may increase. Against a backdrop of strong risk appetite, it is cost - effective to make bargain - hunting layouts for large - cap convertible bonds in the bottom - position category and hard - tech themed convertible bonds supported by strong performance and high prosperity. In December, the exchange accelerated the review of convertible bond pre - plans, and in a strong market environment, convertible bond subscription will continue to be an important means to increase returns [2]. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On December 16, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced that from December 17, 2025, for the next 5 years, anti - dumping duties would be imposed on imported relevant pork and pork by - products from the EU [3]. - On December 18, 2025, six departments including the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to expand the scope of key areas for clean and efficient coal utilization and encourage enterprises to upgrade their projects [4]. Secondary Market - Last week, major equity market indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.89% and 2.26% respectively. Overseas, the US and Japanese markets had different trends, and globally, capital markets and commodities showed a differentiated performance. Domestically, economic data in November indicated continued downward pressure on the economy, with retail sales data underperforming expectations. The equity market initially declined on low trading volume but rebounded after Huijin's purchase of ETFs. Concepts such as commercial space, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and retail led the gains [5]. - Convertible bond market indices all closed up. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.48%, 0.18%, and 0.86% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of 63.611 billion yuan, an increase of 2.975 billion yuan from the previous period. Convertible bond ETFs had a net redemption of 1.476 billion yuan. Small - cap convertible bonds outperformed, while high - rated and high - priced convertible bonds lagged. In terms of industry, most convertible bonds in various industries rose, with the light manufacturing industry leading the gain, and some industries such as household appliances and electronics underperforming [6][7][8]. - Looking ahead, convertible bonds are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term. However, due to profit - taking needs near the year - end, high - priced convertible bonds may experience greater volatility. Bargain - hunting for large - cap and hard - tech themed convertible bonds is recommended. Convertible bond subscription will also be an important way to increase returns [9]. Primary Market - Last week, Dingjie Convertible Bond was issued, no convertible bonds were listed, and several convertible bonds were redeemed early or expired. As of December 19, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 559.626 billion yuan, a decrease of 174.267 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. The issuance scale last week was 828 million yuan [31]. - Twelve convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%, with some having announced early redemption or approaching redemption conditions. Some convertible bonds triggered more conversions due to negative conversion premiums [32]. - Haitian Co., Ltd., Doctor Optical, and Changgao Electric's convertible bond issuance plans were approved by the exchange; Jinpan Technology and Shangtai Technology's plans were approved by the CSRC. As of last Friday, 5 convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, with a total of 5.9 billion yuan, and 10 convertible bonds passed the issuance review committee, with a total of 8.515 billion yuan [34]. - In terms of clause tracking, 2 convertible bonds announced downward revisions of conversion prices, and 3 announced early redemptions. Several other convertible bonds were approaching or expected to trigger relevant conditions [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the bond market continued to show warmth, with the yield curve shifting downward in a steepening manner. The bond market first declined and then rose, remaining generally strong, and long - term bond yields continued to fall. Short - term interest rates also decreased, with a larger decline in short - term bond yields than long - term ones. This week (the week of December 22), the bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The unchanged LPR quote on Monday may drive institutions to realize floating profits, bringing adjustment pressure. However, supported by factors such as central bank bond - buying, loose liquidity, and funds' year - end scale - boosting demands, the long - end bond yields are expected to be "capped" and fluctuate slightly. Before the end of the year, the bond market is mainly driven by institutional behavior, and the 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to oscillate within the range of 1.83% - 1.88% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was generally warm last week, and long - term bond yields continued to fall. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract rose 0.14% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 0.88bp, and the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 3.32bp compared with the previous Friday, with the term spread continuing to widen [4]. - On December 15 (Monday), the bond market continued to adjust. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, and Treasury futures contracts closed down across the board. The 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, and the 30 - year main contract fell 0.99%, hitting a new closing low since November 18, 2024 [4]. - On December 16 (Tuesday), the bond market recovered slightly. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 0.30bp. The performance of Treasury futures contracts at different maturities was divergent, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.05% [4]. - On December 17 (Wednesday), the bond market continued to recover. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.18bp. Treasury futures contracts closed up across the board, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.10% [4]. - On December 18 (Thursday), short - term bonds continued to recover, but long - term bonds were weak. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, but the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.16bp. Most Treasury futures contracts closed up, with the 10 - year main contract remaining flat [4]. - On December 19 (Friday), the bond market continued its upward trend. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 0.48bp. Treasury futures contracts closed up across the board, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.10% [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 35 interest - rate bonds were issued, a decrease of 62 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 376.1 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 919.8 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 20.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 374.4 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds all decreased compared with the previous week [10]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. Four Treasury bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 2.82 times; seven policy - bank bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.92 times; 24 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 19.28 times [11]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - The macro data in November continued the downward trend. The year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in November was 4.8% (previous value: 4.9%); the cumulative year - on - year actual growth rate in the first 11 months was 6.0% (2024 full - year cumulative year - on - year: 5.8%). The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 1.3% (previous value: 2.9%); the cumulative year - on - year growth rate in the first 11 months was 4.0% (2024 full - year cumulative year - on - year: 3.5%). The cumulative year - on - year decline in national fixed - asset investment from January to November 2025 was 2.6% (previous value: a decline of 1.7%, 2024 full - year cumulative year - on - year growth: 3.2%) [12]. - The slight decline in industrial added - value growth in November was mainly due to the weakening of the pulling effect of domestic - demand - promoting policies, weak domestic consumption and investment momentum, and subsequent pressure on demand, which was transmitted to industrial production. The significant decline in the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November was mainly due to the weakening of the subsidy policy for trading in the old for the new, the expansion of the decline in commercial housing sales, the pre - positioning of some consumption demand in October due to the early "Double Eleven" promotion, and factors such as fluctuations in the external economic and trade environment and the accelerating decline in domestic housing prices, which continuously suppressed residents' consumption confidence and willingness. The cumulative year - on - year negative growth in fixed - asset investment from January to November continued for three months and the decline was expanding, mainly because the three major investment sectors of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all slowed down. After excluding price factors, the actual fixed - asset investment from January to November maintained positive growth, indicating that investment still played a positive role in promoting economic growth [12]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Most high - frequency data on the production side declined last week. The blast - furnace operating rate, petroleum asphalt plant operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and daily average pig iron output all decreased to varying degrees. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities rebounded significantly. In terms of prices, the pork price rose slightly overall, while most commodity prices declined, including copper and oil prices, while the rebar price increased [13]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations had a net capital injection of 109 billion yuan last week. The R007 rose, and DR007 declined. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward, the national and stock direct - discount rates at all maturities continued to rise, the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to increase, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio continued to rise [26][27].