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10月我国制造业PMI为49.0%,资金面持续宽松,债市延续暖势
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-11-04 00:30
10 月我国制造业 PMI 为 49.0%;资金面持续宽松,债市延续暖势 【内容摘要】10 月 31 日,资金面持续宽松;债市延续暖势;转债市场主要指数集体收涨,转 债个券多数上涨;各期限美债收益率走势分化,主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 (一)国内要闻 【习近平出席亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议并发表重要讲话】当地时间 10 月 31 日上午,亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议第一阶段会议在韩国庆州和白会议中心 举行。国家主席习近平出席会议并发表题为《共建普惠包容的开放型亚太经济》的重要讲话。 习近平在讲话中指出,亚太经合组织成立 30 多年来,引领亚太地区走在全球开放发展前列, 助力亚太成为全球经济最具活力的地区。当前,世界百年变局加速演进,亚太地区发展面临的 不稳定不确定因素增多。越是风高浪急,越要同舟共济。各方要坚守亚太经合组织促进经济增 长、增进人民福祉的初衷,坚持在开放发展中分享机遇、实现共赢,推进普惠包容的经济全球 化,构建亚太共同体。 【李强主持召开国常会,研究深化重点领域改革扩大制度型开放工作】国务院总理李强 10 月 31 日主持召开国务院常务会议 ...
利率债周报:上周债市大幅反弹,收益率曲线陡峭化下移-20251103
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-11-03 10:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market strengthened overall, with long - term bond yields dropping significantly. The announcement of resuming treasury bond trading operations by the central bank governor, large - scale purchases of medium - and short - term bonds by major banks, the successful China - US summit, a loose capital situation, and lower - than - expected October manufacturing PMI data all boosted market sentiment [3]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue a relatively strong and volatile trend. The weak October manufacturing PMI further confirms the weak fundamentals, and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading in the open market strengthens the market's expectation of monetary easing. The central bank's continuous use of various tools to inject liquidity is expected to keep the capital market loose. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect still exists, and the new regulations on the redemption fees of public bond funds have not been implemented, which will still cause some disturbances to the bond market. It is expected that the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds will range from 1.75% to 1.85% [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market rebounded, and long - term bond yields dropped significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.62% in the whole week. On Friday, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by 5.32bp compared with the previous Friday, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds decreased by 8.90bp, with the term spread widening significantly [4]. - On October 27th, the bond market was weak in the morning due to tightened capital and improved Sino - US trade relations. But after the central bank governor announced the resumption of treasury bond trading operations, the market sentiment turned positive. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropped 0.63bp, with the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.15% [4]. - On October 28th, after the news of the central bank's restart of bond - buying was confirmed, the market sentiment cooled slightly, but the bond market generally continued to be warm. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping 2.44bp and the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.25% [4]. - On October 29th, affected by the rumor that major banks were buying new bonds issued this year with a maturity of less than 3 years, the market speculated that there was still room for loose monetary policy. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened significantly, while long - term bonds were weaker. The yields of most major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly by 0.29bp and the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.13% [4]. - On October 30th, boosted by the expectation of central bank bond - buying and loose capital, the bond market fluctuated and trended upwards. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping 1.10bp and the 10 - year futures main contract rising 0.05% [4]. - On October 31st, due to continuous loose capital and lower - than - expected October manufacturing PMI data, the market sentiment was high, and the bond market continued to be warm. The yields of most major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropping 1.44bp, and the performance of the 10 - year futures main contract was mixed, rising 0.04% [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 110 interest - rate bonds were issued, 3 more than the previous week, with a total issuance volume of 412.7 billion yuan, 663.6 billion yuan less than the previous week, and a net financing amount of 320 billion yuan, 235.3 billion yuan more than the previous week. There was no issuance or repayment of treasury bonds last week. The issuance volume and net financing amount of local bonds and policy - financial bonds both increased compared with the previous week [12]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. There was no treasury bond issuance. A total of 22 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an average subscription multiple of 3.78 times, and 88 local bonds were issued, with an average subscription multiple of 20.17 times [13]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - In October, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from September, weaker than market expectations. This was mainly due to the simultaneous decline in manufacturing supply and demand under the combined influence of internal and external factors. The service industry PMI index in October was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly because the one - day increase in the long holiday in October drove up residents' travel demand. Looking forward, the manufacturing PMI index in November will still be in the contraction range, but it will rise slightly due to seasonality and policy support [15]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production - end data declined, including blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, petroleum asphalt plant operating rate, and daily hot - metal output. From the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline slightly. In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated slightly upwards, and most commodity prices rose, with steel and copper prices increasing, while crude - oil prices declined [16]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's net injection of funds in the open market was 900.8 billion yuan [26]. - Last week, both R007 and DR007 increased, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks decreased significantly, the direct - discount rates of national and joint - stock banks for various maturities continued to decline, the trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated slightly downwards [27][29][30].
项具体措施;证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-11-03 09:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the convertible bond market followed the equity market to fluctuate upward and then pulled back. The CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 pcts. High - priced convertible bonds continued to be dominant, and low - price and low - premium convertible bonds led the Wind sub - indices. In the short term, the "15th Five - Year Plan" focusing on carbon peaking and the supply - side reform of the new energy industry is expected to support relevant underlying stocks and convertible bonds. However, in the fourth quarter, due to economic data pressure and profit - taking needs, the probability of high - to - low and structural switching in the market increases, and defensive convertible bonds with previous underperformance may be dominant in stages, and the cost - performance of low - price and low - premium convertible bonds has increased. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact on the demand side of convertible bonds with the further adjustment of fund fees and the launch of stock - bond balanced funds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Tracking - On October 28, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - sized Investors in the Capital Market", focusing on key issues of small and medium - sized investors and proposing 23 specific measures in eight aspects [3]. - On October 31, the CSRC issued the "Guidelines for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds (Exposure Draft)", aiming to standardize the selection and use of performance comparison benchmarks of public funds through six chapters and 21 articles, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors [3]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major domestic equity market indices fluctuated strongly. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but its stance on the December interest - rate cut was hawkish. Domestically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations advanced, and the October manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, 0.8 percentage points lower than that in September, which was lower than market expectations and suppressed market risk appetite. The equity market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling [6]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Last week, major convertible bond market indices followed the equity market to rise. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.79%, 0.55%, and 1.14% respectively. Convertible bond ETFs had a net redemption of 11.92 billion yuan. Structurally, high - priced convertible bonds continued to be strong, and low - price and low - premium convertible bonds performed well. In terms of industries, most convertible bonds in various industries rose, with steel industry convertible bonds leading the gain. Looking forward, in the short term, relevant policies may support new energy - related convertible bonds, but in the fourth quarter, the probability of market switching increases, and the cost - performance of low - price and low - premium convertible bonds has increased [2][8][11]. Primary Market - **Issuance and Listing**: Last week, there was no new convertible bond issuance. Fueneng Convertible Bond and Jin25 Convertible Bond were listed, while several convertible bonds were redeemed in advance or expired and delisted. As of October 31, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 581.274 billion yuan, a decrease of 152.619 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year and an increase of 3.14 billion yuan compared with the previous week [35]. - **Conversion and Approval**: Seven convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5% last week. Shuangle Co., Ltd.'s convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange, and Ruikeda's convertible bond issuance was approved by the CSRC. As of last Friday, 5 convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, with a total of 4.15 billion yuan, and 6 convertible bonds passed the issuance review committee, with a total of 3.381 billion yuan [35][40]. - **Clause Tracking**: Last week, no convertible bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and 1 convertible bond announced early redemption. Several convertible bonds proposed or were about to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and some were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [41].
十五五规划建议全文发布,资金面整体均衡平稳,债市震荡偏弱,10年期国债收益率小幅上行
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-11-02 03:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 28, the central bank increased net open - market injections, improving the capital situation to an overall balanced and stable state. After the positive news of the central bank's bond - buying restart was realized, the bond market was generally weak with a slight upward movement in the 10 - year treasury bond yield. The convertible bond market declined following the stock market, and most individual bonds fell. Overseas, yields of US Treasury bonds across various tenors generally decreased, while the 10 - year treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged from the previous day [1] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The full text of the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released on October 28, setting major goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, such as maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and achieving breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas. It also proposed measures for fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal emphasizes the role of active fiscal policies, enhancing fiscal sustainability, and promoting a more domestic - demand - led and consumption - driven economic development model [5] - China and ASEAN signed the 3.0 - version upgrade protocol of the free - trade area on October 28, expanding cooperation in emerging fields and promoting regional trade facilitation [7] 3.1.2 International News - ADP will start releasing weekly preliminary estimates of private - sector employment data on a weekly basis, providing a four - week moving average of private - sector employment changes. The existing monthly report will still be released as usual [8][9] 3.1.3 Commodities - On October 28, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI December crude futures down 1.89% and Brent December crude futures down 1.86%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.25%, and NYMEX natural gas prices dropped 4.30% [10] 3.2 Capital Situation 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On October 28, the central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 159.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 315.8 billion yuan [12] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On October 28, the central bank's increased net open - market injections improved the capital situation. DR001 rose 1.58bp to 1.469%, and DR007 fell 2.38bp to 1.558% [13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - After the news of the central bank's bond - buying restart was confirmed on October 28, the bond market was generally weak. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 1.80bp to 1.813%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 rose 1.75bp to 1.8805% [16] - There were several bond - issuing tenders on October 28, with details such as issuance scale, winning bid yields, and multiples provided [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On October 28, the trading price of "H0 Baolong 04" deviated by over 10%, rising over 37% [18] - Credit - related events include the suspension of trading of 6 corporate bonds of Rongxin Group, the ineffective convening of the "20 Xingfu 01" bondholder meeting of Huaxia Holdings, and the disclosure of overdue debts of Sunshine City [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On October 28, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.22%, 0.44%, and 0.15% respectively. The convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices down 0.24%, 0.30%, and 0.16% respectively [20] - There were rating - related events such as the withdrawal of Jiangsu Zhongxing's "BBB+" international long - term issuer rating and financial - strength rating events of other companies. Some companies also announced losses, overdue reports, and other events [22] - Upcoming events include the listing of Funeng Convertible Bonds, the possible trigger of the conversion - price downward - adjustment condition for Juxing Convertible Bonds, and announcements regarding early redemption of some convertible bonds [28] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On October 28, except for the 3 - year US Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of US Treasury bonds across other tenors generally decreased. The 2 - year yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 2bp to 3.99% [24] - The 10 - year treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged on October 28 [27] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds as of the close on October 28 are presented, including the top 10 daily gainers and losers [30]
2025年10月PMI数据点评:内外部因素共振带动10月制造业PMI指数下行,年底前稳增长政策有望进一步加码
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-10-31 05:57
Manufacturing PMI Insights - In October 2025, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] - The production index dropped significantly by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, marking its first entry into the contraction zone since April[3] - The new orders index declined by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%, reflecting weakened market demand due to seasonal factors and reduced policy impact[4] Economic Policy and Investment - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools was fully deployed by the end of October, aimed at accelerating infrastructure investment[5] - An additional 500 billion yuan in local government debt was arranged to address existing debt and expand effective investment, indicating a strong focus on stabilizing growth[6] - The anticipated outcomes of the new round of Sino-U.S. trade talks are expected to bolster market confidence, despite ongoing external pressures[6] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, despite a decline of 1.1 percentage points, supported by strong market demand and policy backing[7] - The service sector PMI rose slightly to 50.2%, driven by increased tourism during the extended holiday period, although overall consumer spending remains weak[8] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, continuing a contraction trend due to cooling real estate markets, although civil engineering activity showed signs of improvement[9] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rebound to approximately 49.4% in November, influenced by seasonal factors and the impact of recent economic policies[10] - The overall economic climate is expected to depend heavily on the effectiveness and timing of growth-stabilizing policies leading up to the end of the year[10]
美联储10月货币政策会议点评与展望:美联储10月再度预防式降息,但数据缺失、通胀风险将推升后续降息变数
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-10-30 05:21
Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, a decrease of 25 basis points[2] - This marks the first consecutive rate cut in a year, following the initial cut earlier this year[2] - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, after three and a half years of contraction, with total assets shrinking from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000[3] - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was below expectations, alleviating concerns about inflation driven by tariffs[3] - The Fed's Beige Book indicated widespread low demand for labor across various regions and sectors[3] Group 3: Market Liquidity and Risks - Recent liquidity pressures in the money market have led to a rise in repo rates, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) reaching a high of 4.5%[5] - The total reserves in the banking system have fallen below $3 trillion, indicating a shift from "ample liquidity" to "tight liquidity"[5] - The Treasury's increased issuance of debt has withdrawn significant liquidity from the market, exacerbated by seasonal factors like tax payments[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for another rate cut in December, but it is not guaranteed, as some officials advocate for a pause[6][7] - The uncertainty surrounding future rate cuts is heightened by the ongoing government shutdown and its impact on economic data availability[7] - The Fed's policy path in 2026 may depend heavily on economic and employment data trends, with an expected median rate of 3.4% indicating room for about two more cuts[8]
我国前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%,资金面整体均衡,债市走弱
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-10-29 06:18
Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a 4.8% increase in Q3 alone, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024[4] - The cumulative industrial added value for the first three quarters increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while the retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.5% during the same period[4] Monetary Policy - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for five consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%[5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1890 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%[11] Real Estate Market - In September, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3%, with significant declines in Guangzhou and Shenzhen by 0.6% and 1.0% respectively[5] - Second-tier cities saw a 0.4% decrease in new residential sales prices, while third-tier cities experienced the same decline[6] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed weakness, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising by 2.30 basis points to 1.7680%[15] - The Ministry of Finance announced support operations for government bonds, with a total operation amount of 6.1 billion yuan for various bond types[6] International Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 4.00%[24] - In the European market, the 10-year bond yields varied, with Germany's yield stable at 2.58% while Italy and the UK saw declines of 1 basis point[27]
中美在马来西亚吉隆坡举行经贸磋商,资金面整体均衡平稳,债市走弱
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-10-28 06:38
Economic Developments - China and the U.S. held economic consultations in Kuala Lumpur, focusing on key trade issues including maritime logistics and agricultural trade[3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 900 billion CNY Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations[4] Financial Market Trends - The overall liquidity in the financial market remained balanced, but the bond market weakened due to strong stock market performance[1] - As of October 24, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 1.20 basis points to 1.8450%[15] Credit Market Insights - By the end of Q3, the total outstanding loans in RMB reached 270.39 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, down from 7.1% at the end of Q2[7] - The growth rate of loans to small and micro enterprises increased by 12.2%, while loans to technology-based SMEs surged by 22.3%[7] Inflation and Interest Rates - In the U.S., the September Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating a slower inflation rate than expected[8] - The PBOC's net liquidity injection for October is projected to reach 600 billion CNY, maintaining a high level of monetary policy support[4] Bond Market Activity - On October 24, the bond market saw a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 1.20 basis points[15] - The issuance of government bonds included a 20 billion CNY bond with a bid yield of 1.8049% and a coverage ratio of 3.36[17] Commodity Prices - As of October 24, WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.47% to $61.50 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.08% to $65.94 per barrel[10]
利率债周报:上周债市有所调整,长债收益率波动上行-20251027
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-10-27 06:19
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the bond market adjusted, and long - term bond yields fluctuated upwards. The expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the overall boost of the Fourth Plenary Session to the "15th Five - Year Plan" risk preference led to the stock - bond seesaw effect, making the bond market oscillate weakly. Short - term yields rose slightly more than long - term yields, and the yield curve flattened further [2]. - This week (the week of October 27), the bond market will continue the weakly oscillating market. The easing expectation of Sino - US trade relations and the high market risk preference, along with the concern about the bond - fund redemption and asset re - allocation pressure caused by the new regulations on public - fund sales fees, will continue to suppress the bond market. Without trend - driving factors, the bond market needs to digest these negative factors, and the 10 - year Treasury yield will run in the range of 1.70% - 1.80% [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Section 1: Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market adjusted, and long - term bond yields rose significantly. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract fell 0.24% cumulatively. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 2.40bp, and the 1 - year Treasury yield rose 2.82bp compared with the previous Friday, and the term spread continued to narrow [3]. - From October 20 to 24, the bond market showed different trends each day. For example, on October 20, the bond market weakened due to the stock - market rebound and progress in Sino - US talks; on October 21, the bond market oscillated strongly due to the expected interest - rate cut [3]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 107 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an issuance volume of 10763 billion, a net financing of 847 billion. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and local bonds increased, while those of policy - bank bonds decreased [9]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiples of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local bonds were 2.61 times, 3.36 times, and 20.42 times respectively [10]. Section 2: Last Week's Important Events - In the third quarter of 2025, GDP growth slowed down to 4.8%. Although the export growth accelerated, domestic investment and consumption decelerated, and the pulling force of domestic demand on economic growth weakened. The slowdown of infrastructure investment, the impact on manufacturing investment confidence, and the decline of real - estate investment led to a significant decline in investment growth, which was the main reason for the GDP growth slowdown [11]. Section 3: Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency data on the production side increased, such as the blast - furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum - asphalt plant operating rate, while the daily average pig - iron output decreased. On the demand side, the BDI index declined, and the CCFI index rose slightly. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased slightly. In terms of prices, pork prices continued to fall, while most commodity prices rose [12]. Section 4: Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market net investment was 1981 billion yuan. R007 decreased, DR007 increased, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit increased, the national - share direct - discount rates of all terms decreased, the volume of pledged - repo transactions fluctuated and decreased, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio continued to decline [23].
可转债周报:缩量反弹中,转债ETF资金开始回流-20251027
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-10-27 03:04
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market is expected to follow the equity market and strengthen in an oscillatory manner, but due to increased market volatility and the continuation of the high - price characteristic of convertible bonds, attention should be paid to the defensive attributes of the portfolio and tail risks should be avoided. Layout can be made along the performance clues. The cost - effectiveness of new convertible bond subscriptions or indirect allocation through convertible bond ETFs remains relatively high [3][9]. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On October 22, the China Society of Automotive Engineers released the "Energy - Saving and New - Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0", which clarifies that global automotive technology will evolve towards low - carbon, electrification, and intelligence. China's automotive industry carbon emissions will peak around 2028 and decline by over 60% by 2040 compared to the peak. By 2040, the market penetration rate of new - energy vehicles needs to exceed 80%, and the intelligent connected infrastructure system integrating vehicles, roads, and clouds will be fully mature [4]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major equity market indices collectively strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 2.88%, 4.73%, and 8.05% respectively. After the release of the Fourth Plenary Session communique, market sentiment was significantly boosted, and the trading volume on Friday quickly recovered to nearly 2 trillion yuan [5][6]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The main convertible bond market indices collectively rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rising 1.47%, 1.56%, and 1.40% respectively. The average daily trading volume was 600.23 billion yuan, a further reduction of 109.27 billion yuan from the previous week. Convertible bond ETFs ended the net redemption trend and had a net subscription of 30.82 billion yuan, supporting the strength of convertible bonds. The small - cap and high - price style in the convertible bond market strengthened again, and most convertible bonds in various industries rose. The valuation of most industries decreased, but the valuation of the light - manufacturing industry rose [7][8][9]. Primary Market - **Issuance and Listing**: Last week, there was no new convertible bond issuance, and Yingliu Convertible Bond was listed. Six convertible bonds were redeemed early and delisted. As of last Friday, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 580.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 152.933 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. Five convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, totaling 4 billion yuan, and six convertible bonds passed the review committee, totaling 3.581 billion yuan [3]. - **Conversion and Redemption**: Eight convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%. Some convertible bonds announced early redemption, and some announced that they were about to trigger early redemption conditions or the conditions for conversion price downward adjustment [30][31][33].