1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 18, during the tax payment period, the liquidity tightened; the bond market weakened significantly; the main indices of the convertible bond market followed the upward trend, with most individual convertible bonds rising; the yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, boosting domestic circulation, stabilizing the real estate market, and improving people's livelihood [3] - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into institutions involved in the illegal use of bond issuance proceeds [4] - On August 18, the total market capitalization of A - shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10 - year high. The market rally was driven by policy dividends, industrial upgrading, and other factors [4] - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year - on - year, and emerging industries led the growth. Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index all rose [5] 3.1.2 International News - After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump called Putin to arrange a three - party meeting, and both Russia and the U.S. supported direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [6] - In June, EU exports to the U.S. reached a two - year low, with a 10% year - on - year decline. The EU's trade surplus shrank, and the chemical industry was particularly affected. Germany's exports to the U.S. declined, and the strengthening of the euro exacerbated the challenges [7] 3.1.3 Commodities - On August 18, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while international natural gas prices turned down. WTI September crude oil futures rose 0.99% to $63.42 per barrel, Brent October crude oil futures rose 1.14% to $66.60 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.12% to $3378.60 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.58% to $2.906 per ounce [8][9] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On August 18, the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 154.5 billion yuan [11] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On August 18, due to tax payments, the liquidity tightened, and major repurchase rates increased. DR001 rose 4.70bp to 1.503%, and DR007 rose 3.46bp to 1.514% [12] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On August 18, the strong stock market and the tightened liquidity due to tax payments weakened the bond market. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 2.50bp to 1.7700%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 rose 2.25bp to 1.8900% [16] - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds including 25NongfaDiscount07 (Increment 2) and 25Guokai06 (Increment 31) was provided, including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, and other details [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On August 18, 4 industrial bonds and 2 urban investment bonds had transaction prices deviating by more than 10%. For example, "H1 Bidi 04" rose by more than 31%, and "18 Taixing Xinghuang Bond 01" fell by more than 49% [18][19] - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced events such as adjusting bond repayment arrangements, canceling bond issuances, and facing losses or legal issues [21] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On August 18, the A - share market strengthened, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10 - year high. The main indices of the convertible bond market followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.92%, 0.87%, and 1.01% respectively. Most individual convertible bonds rose [21] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Jinwei Convertible Bond will start online subscription on August 20 [24] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On August 18, the yields of most U.S. Treasuries rose, with the 2 - year yield rising 2bp to 3.77% and the 10 - year yield rising 1bp to 4.34%. The 2/10 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread widened by 1bp. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate remained at 2.38% [25][26][27] - **European Bond Market**: On August 18, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yield of the German 10 - year government bond remained at 2.78%, while the yields of French, Italian, and Spanish 10 - year government bonds declined, and the yield of the British 10 - year government bond rose [28][29] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes of top - 10 rising and falling Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on August 18 was provided, including companies such as Sunac China and SMIC [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated last week, leading to a volatile correction in gold prices. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, gold T+D spot, and London gold spot all declined. Specifically, on August 15, the Shanghai gold futures price dropped 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold futures price fell 2.21% to 3381.70 dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price decreased 1.30% to 773.09 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price declined 1.86% to 3335.28 dollars/ounce [1]. - Gold prices are expected to decline slightly this week. The unexpectedly high July PPI data in the US implies potential inflation rebound, which may lead Powell to reaffirm a policy - wait - and - see attitude at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, weakening interest rate cut expectations and pressuring gold prices. Additionally, Trump will continue to promote a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and the possibility of a further increase in geopolitical risks is low. In the long run, without clear driving factors, the overall upward trend of gold prices will not reverse [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures: The Shanghai gold futures price closed at 775.80 yuan/gram on August 15, down 12.00 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 3381.70 dollars/ounce, down 76.50 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of Shanghai gold futures was - 1.28%, and that of COMEX gold futures was - 3.14% [4][5]. - Spot: The gold T+D spot price closed at 773.09 yuan/gram on August 15, down 10.18 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the London gold spot price closed at 3335.28 dollars/ounce, down 63.30 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of gold T+D was - 1.19%, and that of London gold was - 1.86% [4][5]. 1.2 Gold Basis - The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 0.70 dollars/ounce last Friday, rising 8.65 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was - 3.37 yuan/gram, falling 1.80 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Market Spread - The foreign market gold price decline was greater than that of the domestic market last week. The gold domestic - foreign market spread on Friday was - 8.91 yuan/gram, rising from - 12.48 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The decline of crude oil prices was slightly greater than that of gold prices, causing the gold - oil ratio to decline slightly; the decline of silver prices was less than that of gold, leading to a continuous decline in the gold - silver ratio; copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - Spot position: The gold ETF holdings continued to increase slightly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased slightly, with the full - week cumulative trading volume at 151302 kilograms, a decrease of 9.64% from the previous week [13]. - Futures position: As of August 12, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased slightly, while the short positions increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory increased slightly last week, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory continued to increase by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms [13]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that "most" US trade negotiations will be completed by October. He expected to basically complete negotiations with countries without trade agreements by the end of October [17]. - The US July CPI was lower than expected, and the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February. The July CPI increased 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%; the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, lower than the expected value of 2.8% and the same as the previous value. The core CPI increased 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected value [19]. - The US July PPI soared month - on - month, reaching a three - year high. The year - on - year increase in PPI rose from 2.3% to 3.3%, well above the expected value of 2.5%; the month - on - month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022. The core PPI also showed significant increases [20]. - The US July retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month, and the real retail sales increased for the tenth consecutive month. After excluding inflation, the real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year [21]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Most Fed officials were cautious about the interest rate cut path last week. Richmond Fed President Barkin was unsure whether to focus more on controlling inflation or boosting the job market; Kansas City Fed President Schmid supported maintaining interest rates; Atlanta Fed President thought one interest rate cut in 2025 was appropriate if the labor market remained robust; St. Louis Fed President Musalem thought it was too early to judge whether to support a September interest rate cut; San Francisco Fed President Daly supported the Fed to start easing monetary policy next month; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee thought more data was needed to judge the inflation situation [28][29][30]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The unexpectedly high US July PPI data cooled market expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of last Friday, the US dollar index decreased 0.43% to 97.85 compared to the previous Friday [31]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated upward last week. The mild July CPI data at the beginning of the week increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, causing the yield to decline. However, the significant increase in PPI data and the rebound in retail sales data in the second half of the week pushed the yield up. As of last Friday, the yield increased 7bp to 1.95% compared to the previous Friday [33]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Trump and Putin held a meeting, and there may be room for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. On August 18, European leaders will accompany Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with Trump in Washington. In the Middle East, Israel continued to attack Gaza, and Hamas said it was a "new form of genocide" [36].

Economic Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 6.3% from January to July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decrease from 4.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 4.8% from January to July[1] - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, down from 2.8% in the previous period, with an annual growth target of 3.2%[1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate slowed by 1.1 percentage points in July, primarily due to weak domestic demand and external pressures[3] - Mining industry added value grew by 5.0%, down 1.1 percentage points, while manufacturing added value increased by 6.2%, down 1.2 percentage points[4] - Export delivery value only grew by 0.8% in July, a significant drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% in July, primarily due to the suspension of the old-for-new consumption policy in some regions[6] - The retail sales of furniture, home appliances, and cultural office supplies increased by 20.6%, 28.7%, and 13.8% respectively, but growth rates decreased compared to June[6] - Cumulative retail sales growth from January to July was 4.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year[7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to July was 1.6%, down 1.2 percentage points, with declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments[8] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points, influenced by external environment fluctuations and the implementation of anti-"involution" policies[8] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 12.0% from January to July, with a worsening drop of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period[10] Future Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to remain weak in August, with potential policy measures anticipated in the fourth quarter to stabilize the economy[12] - The macroeconomic policy may include increased fiscal support, interest rate cuts, and stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market[12] - The overall economic growth target for the year is around 5.0%, with expectations of a decline in industrial production growth due to weakening export momentum[12]

Group 1: Credit Data Overview - In July 2025, new RMB loans were -500 billion, a decrease of 3100 billion year-on-year, marking a rare negative value in 20 years[3] - The new social financing scale in July was 1.16 trillion, an increase of 3893 billion year-on-year, continuing a trend of year-on-year growth for eight consecutive months[6] - M2 growth rate in July was 8.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 growth rate was 5.6%, up 1.0 percentage points[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Credit Fluctuations - The significant drop in new loans was attributed to three main factors: overdraft effects, insufficient loan demand, and hidden debt replacement[3] - The overdraft effect from the previous month led to a substantial decline in July's loan demand, with an average monthly loan issuance of 1.1 trillion over June and July, consistent with the previous year[3] - The hidden debt replacement contributed to a negative 2600 billion in new medium- and long-term loans for enterprises in July, indicating a large scale of hidden debt replacement[4] Group 3: Economic and Policy Implications - Despite a stable macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year, the second half is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy to lower financing costs and stimulate internal demand[9] - The current low price levels in China provide ample space for monetary policy to focus on growth, with expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in the fourth quarter[9] - The increase in government bond financing significantly supported the social financing growth, with a notable increase of 5559 billion in government bond financing in July[6]

Price Movements - On August 8, the Shanghai gold futures price rose by 2.22% to 787.80 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.24% to 3458.20 USD/oz[1] - The T+D gold spot price rose by 2.10% to 783.27 CNY/g, and London gold spot price increased by 1.07% to 3398.58 USD/oz[1] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) improved by 3.90 USD/oz to -9.35 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis fell by 1.31 CNY/g to -1.57 CNY/g[7] Market Influences - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was heightened due to weak economic indicators, including a decline in the ISM services PMI and an increase in unemployment claims[1][19] - President Trump's announcement that gold would not be subject to import tariffs helped stabilize the market after initial volatility caused by tariff concerns[2] Trading Volume and Positions - The global SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.56 tons to 959.64 tons, while the cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rose by 4.05% to 167,436 kg[13] - The net long positions in gold futures increased significantly as institutional investors reduced their short positions[13] Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July was reported at 50.1, below expectations, indicating economic stagnation[19] - The unemployment claims reached their highest level since the end of 2021, reflecting increasing economic risks[19] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on the timing and necessity of rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action due to softening labor market data[30][32] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts, with some officials suggesting that the Fed may need to act more than twice this year[30]

Report Summary Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias, and the yield curve steepened and shifted downward. Despite the rise in the stock market and commodity prices and better-than-expected July trade data suppressing market sentiment, the bond market was supported by loose liquidity and the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements. The long - term yields declined overall, with the short - term yields falling more than the long - term ones [2]. - This week, the bond market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The better - than - expected July trade data shows export resilience, but low PPI and CPI data reflect insufficient aggregate demand. The upcoming July financial data is likely to show that the credit volume will not exceed expectations and the structure may be poor. The central bank still has a strong willingness to maintain liquidity, so the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose. However, the "anti - involution" policy has improved market expectations and relieved some downward pressure on PPI. The recent good performance of the stock and commodity markets may continue to boost market risk appetite, attracting some funds out of the bond market and suppressing the bond market. Overall, the bond market is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to range between 1.65% - 1.75% [2]. Market Review Last Week Secondary Market - The bond market was strongly oscillating last week, and long - term bond yields continued to decline. The 10 - year Treasury futures' main contract rose 0.18% in the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.68bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 2.28bp, with the term spread widening [3]. - On August 4, affected by the new VAT policy, the bond market continued to decline in the morning but was pressured and weakened in the afternoon due to the rebound of the stock and commodity markets. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.24bp [3]. - On August 5, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.22bp [3]. - On August 6, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and rumors of large banks buying 7 - 8Y old bonds, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.62bp [3]. - On August 7, the better - than - expected July trade data and the rising stock market pressured the bond market, but the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements in the afternoon released a positive signal, and the bond market recovered. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.05bp [3]. - On August 8, the stock market continued to rise, but the bond market oscillated with a positive bias supported by loose liquidity. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.03bp [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 62 interest - rate bonds were issued, 30 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 808.5 billion yuan, an increase of 136.1 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing was 595.9 billion yuan, an increase of 42.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. Important Events Last Week - July's foreign trade data exceeded expectations. In July 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points higher than in June. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, 3.0 percentage points higher than in June. The increase in exports was mainly due to the low base in the same period last year and the "rush - to - export" and "re - export" effects caused by the changing US tariff policy. The increase in imports was due to the rebound of international commodity prices and the demand for imports in the export process [14]. - July's CPI and PPI continued to operate at a low level. In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly affected by the high base of vegetable and pork prices in the same period last year. PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with a 0.2 - percentage - point decline month - on - month, mainly due to the uncertainty in international trade, the decline in prices of some major export industrial products, and the impact of the real - estate market and electricity prices. However, the "anti - involution" policy improved the prices of domestic - dominated industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium - battery, alleviating the decline of PPI [14][15]. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants and the daily average molten - iron output decreased. The semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week [16]. - On the demand side, the BDI index rebounded slightly, while the CCFI continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [16]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated and decreased slightly, while most commodity prices rose. Rebar and copper prices increased, and crude - oil prices declined [16]. Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [27]. - The half - year national - share direct - discount rate decreased, and the volume of pledged repurchase transactions continued to increase. The R007 and DR007 both increased slightly, and the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward. The inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased slightly [28][29][30].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints On August 8, the capital market showed a stable and slightly loose trend. The bond market oscillated strongly, the convertible bond market continued to rise slightly, and most convertible bond issues increased. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally rose, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies also generally increased [1]. Section Summaries 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase, and remained flat year-on-year. The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline remaining the same as in June [3]. - In July, the China Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises Development Index was 89.0, remaining the same as the previous month. Among the sub - indices, the capital index and investment index increased by 0.2 and 0.1 points respectively [4]. - Trust companies are prohibited from conducting trust business that essentially provides financing for a single financing party, which will have a significant impact on non - standard businesses [4]. - Two standard baskets of science and technology innovation bonds were launched for trading, helping to improve the liquidity of science and technology innovation bonds in the inter - bank market [5]. - **International News** - The Trump administration has unexpectedly expanded the list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman to about 10 people, which may ease market concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve [6]. - **Commodities** - On August 8, WTI September crude oil futures closed flat at $63.88 per barrel, down about 5.1% for the week. Brent September crude oil futures rose 0.24% to $66.59 per barrel, down about 4.4% for the week. COMEX December gold futures rose about 1.1%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 2.79% to $2.996 per ounce [7]. 2. Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On August 8, the central bank conducted 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 126 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan [9]. - **Capital Interest Rates** - On August 8, the capital market remained stable and slightly loose. DR001 decreased by 0.35bp to 1.312%, and DR007 decreased by 2.64bp to 1.425% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On August 8, the bond market oscillated strongly. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.35bp to 1.6910%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 remained flat at 1.7900% [12]. - **Bond Tendering** - The 25 - attached Treasury Bond 07 (Continued 3) with a term of 0.74 years had an issue size of 126 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.6052%, a full - field multiple of 3.38, and a marginal multiple of 6.22. The 25 - ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 05 (Continued 2) with a 30 - year term had an issue size of 82 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.9576%, a full - field multiple of 3.6, and a marginal multiple of 1.76 [14]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On August 8, the trading price of one urban investment bond, "H8 Longkong 05", deviated by more than 10%, falling by more than 60% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Three bonds of Sunac Real Estate, such as "H Sunac 07", will resume trading on August 11, and a total of 3.3 billion yuan of bonds have been cancelled [15]. - The bond "H22 Futong 1" of Futong Group, originally due on August 8, has been given a 20 - day grace period by bondholders [15]. - Due to a bond trading dispute with Junkang Life Insurance, the equity of 9 companies held by Fanhai Holdings has been frozen [15]. - Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group decided to re - issue the "25 Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group SCP003 (Science and Technology Innovation Bond)" at an appropriate time due to market fluctuations [15]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On August 8, the three major A - share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell 0.12%, 0.26%, and 0.38% respectively, with a full - day trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan [17]. - The main convertible bond market indices closed up. The China Bond Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.15% respectively, with a trading volume of 86.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.605 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On August 8, Changhong Convertible Bond, Leizhi Convertible Bond, Huayang Convertible Bond, Kairun Convertible Bond, and Huahai Convertible Bond announced that the board of directors proposed to lower the conversion price [24]. - On August 8, Xince Convertible Bond and Longhua Convertible Bond announced early redemption, and Tianrun Convertible Bond and Gaoce Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger the early redemption condition [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On August 8, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally rose. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 4bp to 3.76% and 4.27% respectively [21]. - The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 51bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed by 1bp to 101bp [22]. - The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 4bp to 2.39% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On August 8, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 4bp to 2.69%, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 5bp, 5bp, 6bp, and 6bp respectively [25]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on August 8, the prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the price of INDI 4 ½ 11/15/27 rose 5.3%, and the price of GRNLGR 5.9 02/12/25 fell 4.7 - 5.1% [27].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0%, down from a 0.1% increase in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to July[1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose to 0.8% year-on-year in July, indicating a slight improvement in the basic price level[2] - The decline in food CPI was significant, with a year-on-year drop expanding from -0.3% to -1.6%, primarily due to high base prices from the previous year[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 2.9% from January to July[1] - The PPI month-on-month fell by 0.2%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improved market price expectations, contributing to a narrowing of the PPI decline in July[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall price level remains weak, driven by insufficient consumer demand and a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market[6] - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, with potential for further fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts[7] - The uncertainty in the international trade environment poses ongoing downward pressure on export industrial prices, which may affect domestic PPI trends[12]

Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76%[2] - The decline in reserves was primarily due to a 3.39% increase in the US dollar index, which led to a drop in the prices of non-dollar assets within the reserves[2] - The average monthly trading volume of foreign reserve assets from 2017 to 2024 was approximately $8.4 billion, accounting for 0.27% of the total reserves, indicating that changes in reserve balances are mainly influenced by exchange rate adjustments and asset price fluctuations[2] Gold Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.396 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth[2] - The increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize the international reserve structure, as the gold proportion in China's reserves is only 1.7%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%[4] - The central bank's continued accumulation of gold is seen as a strategy to enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and support the gradual internationalization of the renminbi[4]

Export Data - In July 2025, China's export value increased by 7.2% year-on-year, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than June[2] - Exports to the US fell by 21.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 5.5 percentage points compared to June, contributing a 3.3 percentage point downward effect on overall export growth[4] - Exports to the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan grew by 9.2%, 4.6%, and 19.2% respectively, with significant increases of 1.7, 11.3, and 15.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Import Data - In July 2025, China's import value increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a growth acceleration of 3.0 percentage points from June[6] - The month-on-month import value rose by 6.2%, significantly higher than the ten-year average of 1.8%[6] - Imports from the US decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.4 percentage points compared to June[6] Future Outlook - The forecast for August indicates a potential decline in export growth to around 4.0%, with expectations of further downward pressure due to high US tariffs and weakening "export rush" effects[5] - The recent trade agreements between the US and other economies may lead to increased tariffs, further suppressing global trade and impacting China's exports negatively[5] - The import growth momentum is expected to depend on domestic demand policies, with potential support from government measures in the latter part of the year[8]