Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - ADP employment data exceeded expectations and market concerns about a liquidity crisis in the US caused the gold price to continue its volatile adjustment. Last week, the gold price was pressured by the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about a liquidity crisis. Overall, the gold price will continue to maintain a range - bound trend this week, as the long - term upward logic of the gold price remains unchanged, but there is currently a lack of clear upward factors [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends** - Last Friday (November 7), the prices of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold futures, as well as London gold and gold T + D spot, all declined compared to the previous Friday. The cumulative price changes of different gold varieties are shown in Table 1, with the highest and lowest prices also presented [5][6]. - **1.2 Gold Basis** - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 1.10 US dollars per ounce, a significant drop of 16.90 US dollars per ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was - 1.38 yuan per gram, a drop of 1.92 yuan per gram from the previous Friday [8]. - **1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Market Spread** - Last week, the decline of the foreign - market gold price was smaller than that of the domestic - market gold price. The gold domestic - foreign market spread on Friday was - 18.76 yuan per gram, a significant increase from - 19.46 yuan per gram the previous Friday. The gold - to - oil ratio increased slightly, the gold - to - silver ratio decreased slightly, and the gold - to - copper ratio increased significantly [10]. - **1.4 Position Analysis** - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings increased slightly last week. The trading volume of domestic gold T + D continued to decrease. In terms of futures positions, as of September 23, the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions both increased, with the net long positions rising slightly. The inventory of COMEX gold futures decreased, while the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures increased [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **2.1 Important Economic Data** - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October continued to contract for eight consecutive months. The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown is about to break the record. The US ISM services PMI in October reached an eight - month high, and the price - payment index reached a three - year high. The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, but salary growth remained stagnant [17][18][19]. - **2.2 Fed Policy Tracking** - Last week, Fed officials' differences over whether to continue cutting interest rates in December intensified. Different Fed officials expressed different views on interest - rate policies, inflation, and employment [29][30]. - **2.3 US Dollar Index Trend** - Last week, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, with a slight overall decline. As of last Friday, it decreased by 0.18% to 99.55 compared to the previous Friday [31]. - **2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend** - Last week, the yield of the 10 - year US TIPS fluctuated slightly upward. As of last Friday, it increased by 2bp to 1.83% [33]. - **2.5 International Important Event Tracking** - Last Saturday (November 8), Russia launched large - scale drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, damaging large - scale energy facilities in three regions. Different parties have different statements regarding these attacks [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ADP employment data exceeded expectations and the market worried about a liquidity crisis in the US, causing the gold price to continue its volatile adjustment. Last Friday (November 7), the Shanghai gold futures price dropped 1.72% to 921.92 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold futures price fell 1.20% to 4077.20 US dollars/ounce. In the spot market, the gold T+D price declined 1.53% to 921.02 yuan/gram, and the London gold price decreased 2.65% to 4002.69 US dollars/ounce. The unexpectedly high ADP employment data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials cooled the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, pressuring the gold price. The significant rise in the US SOFR rate on October 31, announced last Monday, under the backdrop of the government shutdown and tightening bank liquidity, also triggered concerns about a liquidity crisis, putting downward pressure on the gold price. However, the subsequent sharp decline in the SOFR rate alleviated market concerns and pushed the gold price to rebound. Overall, the gold price continued its volatile adjustment last week due to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and concerns about a liquidity crisis [3]. - This week (the week of November 10), the gold price will continue to fluctuate within a range. The US Senate planned to hold a trial vote on a new plan to end the government shutdown last Sunday (November 9), and the government is expected to resume work this week, which will ease market risk aversion and have a certain negative impact on the gold price. However, if the government shutdown ends, multiple private - sector economic indicators will be released this week, and these data are expected to remain weak, which will increase the market's expectation of interest rate cuts and be beneficial to gold. Although the long - term upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged, there are currently no clear upward factors. Given various uncertainties, the gold price is expected to continue its range - bound fluctuation this week [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements - Last Friday (November 7), the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 921.26 yuan/gram, down 0.66 yuan/gram from the previous Friday. The COMEX gold futures price closed at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, continuing to decline by 5.60 US dollars/ounce. In the spot market, the gold T+D price closed at 917.64 yuan/gram, down 3.38 yuan/gram, and the London gold price closed at 4000.29 US dollars/ounce, down 2.40 US dollars/ounce [5]. - The trading data shows that the cumulative increase of the Shanghai gold futures was 0.32%, with a trading volume of 152 million and an open interest of 13.67 million, a decrease of 20,231. The COMEX gold futures had a cumulative increase of 0.28%, a trading volume of 102 million, an open interest of 31.15 million, and a decrease of 23,438. The gold T+D spot had a cumulative increase of 0.08%, a trading volume of 26.92 million, an open interest of 25.45 million, and an increase of 6,762. The London gold spot had a cumulative decrease of 0.06% [6]. 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 1.10 US dollars/ounce, a significant drop of 16.90 US dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.38 yuan/gram, a decline of 1.92 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Last week, the decline of the foreign - market gold price was smaller than that of the domestic - market gold price. The gold domestic - foreign price difference on Friday was - 18.76 yuan/gram, a significant recovery from - 19.46 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The decline of the crude oil price was greater than that of gold, and the gold - oil ratio increased slightly. The silver price continued to rise slightly while the gold price continued to fall, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline slightly. Due to the government shutdown, the spread between the US SOFR rate and the overnight repo rate soared, triggering concerns about US dollar liquidity, reducing market risk appetite, and causing the copper price to fall more sharply than gold, leading to a significant increase in the gold - copper ratio [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In the spot market, the gold ETF holdings increased slightly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 1042.06 tons, a slight increase of 2.86 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D continued to decrease, with a total of 269,158 kilograms last week, a 6.29% decrease from the previous week. - In the futures market, as of September 23 (the latest available data), both the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased, but the increase in short positions was less than that of long positions, resulting in a slight increase in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease last week, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 1800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms [14]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. The index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. Among the important sub - indices, the new orders index was 49.4, higher than the previous value of 48.9. The new orders in October decreased for the second consecutive month, but the decline rate slowed down. The production index dropped 2.8 points to 48.2, indicating output contraction in two of the past three months. The employment index was 46.0, higher than the previous value of 45.3 but still in the contraction range, contracting for the ninth consecutive month. The price - paid index was 58.0, the lowest level since the beginning of this year, far lower than the expected 62.5 and the previous value of 61.9, indicating a continued reduction in inflation pressure. The supplier delivery index rose to a four - month high, indicating a longer delivery cycle. The manufacturer's inventory decreased by the largest margin in a year, and the customer inventory level remained low, suggesting that future orders may increase, supporting production activities [17]. - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown is about to break the record. The current shutdown, which started on October 1, is likely to become the longest in US history. However, there are initial signs of a thaw in Congress, and senior lawmakers from both parties are sending cautious and optimistic signals, which eases market concerns about the US economic and political stability [18]. - The US ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high in October, and the price - paid index reached a three - year high. The index was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.0. The new orders index jumped 5.8 points to 56.2, reaching a one - year high. Along with the rebound in demand, inflation pressure became more obvious, and the input price index rose to 70.0, the highest in three years, indicating that the service industry is under greater pressure from US import tariffs. The employment situation is stabilizing, and the employment index rose to a five - month high of 48.2. Although still below 50, indicating a continued decline in employment, the decline rate has slowed down. The inventory index only contracted slightly in October, and more service companies believe their inventory levels are still high relative to business activities [19]. - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, exceeding expectations, but wage growth remained stagnant. The increase was mainly driven by the service industry, which added 32,000 jobs, and the commodity production industry, which added 9,000 jobs. The recruitment situation rebounded from two consecutive months of weakness, but the rebound was not widespread, mainly supported by education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and public utilities [19][20]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Last week, the divergence among Fed officials on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December increased. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has a vote this year, said the government shutdown led to the lack of key inflation data, making him cautious about further rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Mester, who will have a vote next year, said inflation is a more urgent concern than a weak labor market. She believes the current interest rate setting is "almost non - restrictive" and advocates that monetary policy should continue to put pressure on inflation. New York Fed President Williams said the era of low interest rates continues, and the neutral interest rate is estimated to be around 1%. Fed Governor Barr, who was previously the vice - chair for supervision, said the Fed must focus on "ensuring the robustness of the employment market" [29][30]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Movement - The US dollar index first rose and then fell last week, showing a slight overall decline. The rebound of the October US ISM services PMI index and the significant increase in the October ADP employment number, both exceeding market expectations, drove the dollar index up. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown, market risk sentiment cooled, causing the dollar index to decline again. As of last Friday, the dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 compared to the previous Friday [31]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Movement - The US 10 - year TIPS yield increased slightly last week. Fed officials' remarks generally strengthened Powell's hawkish view that "a December rate cut is not certain", and the rebound in the October ADP employment number showed positive signs in the labor market, leading to a slight increase in the US 10 - year TIPS yield. As of last Friday, the yield rose 2bp to 1.83% [33]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Russian forces continuously attacked the Ukrainian power system. Last Saturday (November 8), Russia launched a large - scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, damaging large - scale energy facilities in three regions. Zelensky said Russia has always targeted the power system to damage heating equipment and called for corresponding sanctions. The Russian Ministry of Defense said the attacks were in response to Kiev's attacks on Russian territory [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market had a weak and volatile performance with a flattened and upward - shifted yield curve. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, leading to some profit - taking. Rumors about the new public bond fund redemption fee rules and the stock market's rebound also affected the bond market. The short - end yield increased more than the long - end, narrowing the term spread [3][4]. - This week (the week of November 10), the bond market is expected to have a warm - biased and volatile performance. The increasing economic downward pressure in the fourth quarter, reduced supply pressure, and institutional pre - emptive allocation support bond - buying. However, the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is not high, and the stock market's resilience and the unannounced new public redemption fee rules limit the bond - buying space. The release of October's financial and economic data may affect the bond market's volatility direction, and it is expected that the year - on - year growth rates of major economic indicators in October may decline compared to September, supporting the bond market's warm - biased volatility [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market adjusted last week, with the long - term bond yield rising significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures' main contract fell 0.20% cumulatively. On November 8, the 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.88bp, and the 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 2.19bp compared to the previous Friday, narrowing the term spread [4]. - From November 3 to 7, the bond market showed different trends each day. On November 4, the central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and on November 6 and 7, rumors about the new redemption fee rules affected the bond market [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 57 interest - rate bonds were issued, 53 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 514 billion yuan, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was 288.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of treasury bonds increased, while those of local government bonds and policy - bank financial bonds decreased [11]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiples for treasury bonds, policy - bank financial bonds, and local government bonds were 3.53, 3.77, and 21.98 times respectively [12]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the year - on - year export growth rate turned negative. The export value decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, 9.4 percentage points lower than in September. The import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year, 6.4 percentage points lower than in September [13]. - In October, the CPI turned positive year - on - year, rising 0.2%. The PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The CPI's positive turn was due to factors such as rising vegetable and service prices, and the PPI's narrowing decline was related to improved industry supply - demand and rising commodity prices [13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production - end data increased, including the blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum asphalt plant operating rate. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline [15]. - In terms of demand, the BDI index and the CCFI increased, while the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. In terms of prices, pork prices rose, and most commodity prices fell [15]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from the open market last week through reverse repurchase operations [26]. - Last week, R007 and DR007 both decreased, the joint - stock bank inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate continued to decline, the national - share direct discount rate for each term increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased overall [27][28].

Policy Trends - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 40 days, breaking the previous record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, but an agreement to end the shutdown is expected soon[10] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, with expectations for a potential rate cut in December[8] Economic Data - The U.S. ADP employment report for October showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 30,000, indicating a stabilization in the labor market[14] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October was 48.7, indicating contraction for the eighth consecutive month, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, marking the fastest expansion in eight months[12][13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08% over the week, with a year-to-date increase of 19.27%[4] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.63% for the week, with a year-to-date increase of 14.40%[4] Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was stable at 4.11%, while the 10-year TIPS yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.83%[20] - The 10-year yields for U.K., German, and French bonds all increased, reflecting a general upward trend in European bond markets[26]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the convertible bond market followed the equity market with continued volatile upward movement, and the valuation slightly decreased. The Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index outperformed the Wind All A by 0.27 pcts. The Wind Convertible Bond Double - Low Index led the sub - indices with a 1.43% increase. The Convertible Bond ETF had a net redemption of 10.02 billion yuan. - In the short term, the convertible bond market will follow the equity market with a structural theme - based market due to the US government shutdown and year - end profit - taking sentiment. However, the supply - demand imbalance in the convertible bond market will support the valuation, and the double - low and dumbbell strategies are advantageous. Defensive positions can be in the large - financial and coal sectors, while offensive positions can be in new energy and low - valuation technology convertible bonds. - In the primary market, Qizhong Convertible Bond and Zhuomei Convertible Bond were issued, Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 was listed, and several bonds were redeemed early or expired and delisted. As of last Friday, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 576.651 billion yuan, a decrease of 157.242 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. Five bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, totaling 4.2 billion yuan, and seven bonds passed the issuance review committee, totaling 6.286 billion yuan [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On November 4, five departments including the National Health Commission issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting and Regulating the Application and Development of 'Artificial Intelligence + Healthcare'". By 2027, key applications of AI in healthcare will be widely used, and high - value application scenarios will be created to drive the high - quality development of the health industry [2][4]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major equity market indices fluctuated strongly. Overseas, the US government shutdown affected market risk appetite. Domestically, CPI and PPI data sent positive signals, and the market focused on performance and anti - involution policies. High - position sectors retreated, and dividend assets strengthened, with coal, chemical, and banking sectors leading the gains [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: - The convertible bond market indices followed the equity market and rose. The average daily trading volume was 69.904 billion yuan, an increase of 3.231 billion yuan from the previous week. The Convertible Bond ETF had a net redemption of 10.02 billion yuan [6]. - Structurally, the large - cap style in the convertible bond market strengthened, and the double - low convertible bonds performed well. The high - price and small - cap indices underperformed. In terms of historical quantiles, the conversion value quantile decreased, while the convertible bond price quantile increased, driving up the conversion premium rate. The trading activity declined [7]. - By industry, most convertible bonds in various industries rose. Steel industry convertible bonds led with an average increase of over 2%, while computer and automobile industry convertible bonds declined. The overall valuation of convertible bonds slightly increased, and the valuation quantiles of different industries changed differently [8]. - In terms of individual bonds, most convertible bonds rose. Bonds in the power grid and solid - state battery sectors led the gains, while some bonds with poor performance in the third quarter declined significantly [10]. - In terms of price and valuation, the arithmetic average and median of convertible bond prices changed slightly. The arithmetic average and median of the conversion premium rate and pure - bond premium rate decreased [20]. Primary Market - **New Issues and Listings**: Qizhong Convertible Bond and Zhuomei Convertible Bond were issued, and Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 was listed with strong performance. Several bonds were redeemed early or expired and delisted. As of November 7, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 576.651 billion yuan, a decrease of 157.242 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and 4.623 billion yuan from the previous week [28]. - **Conversion and Redemption**: Eight convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%, one more than the previous week. Several bonds announced early redemption, and some bonds triggered conversion due to negative conversion premium rates [30]. - **Issuance Progress**: Shangtai Technology and Jinpan Technology's convertible bond issuance plans passed the exchange review. As of last Friday, five bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, totaling 4.2 billion yuan, and seven bonds passed the issuance review committee, totaling 6.286 billion yuan [33][34]. - **Clause Tracking**: No convertible bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and one bond announced early redemption. Several bonds proposed or were about to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and many bonds were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [34].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to October[1] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant rise in vegetable prices due to rainy weather and increased holiday demand, leading to a narrowing of the food price decline to -2.9%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 2.5% increase in travel prices, reflecting a strong demand for services during the extended holiday[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI saw its first month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Key contributors to the PPI increase included improved supply-demand dynamics in industries like coal and cement, with coal mining PPI rising by 1.6%[5] - The rise in international prices for non-ferrous metals also supported the domestic PPI, with a 5.3% increase in the PPI for non-ferrous metal mining[6]

Export Performance - In October 2025, China's export value decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since February and a slowdown of 9.4 percentage points compared to September[2][3] - Exports to the United States fell by 25.2%, contributing to a 3.8 percentage point decline in overall export growth[4] - The average year-on-year export growth for September and October combined is 3.5% when excluding the high base effect and working day adjustments[3] Import Trends - October 2025 saw a 1.0% year-on-year increase in imports, but the growth rate slowed by 6.4 percentage points from September[8] - Imports from the United States dropped by 22.8%, with the decline widening by 6.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[8] - Key imports such as crude oil and soybeans showed improved growth rates, with crude oil imports down by only 0.3% and soybean imports up by 11.4%[9] Market Dynamics - The high base effect from last year, combined with fewer working days due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, significantly impacted October's export figures[3][4] - Despite external pressures, China's export resilience is attributed to diversification efforts and strong growth in sectors like AI, chips, and automobiles, with chip exports rising by 26.9% and automobile exports by 34.0%[5] - The ongoing high tariffs from the U.S. are expected to continue affecting China's exports, particularly to the EU, ASEAN, and Belt and Road economies, which are projected to see declining growth rates[6] Future Outlook - November's export growth is anticipated to rebound to around 2.0%, but the overall export momentum is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter compared to the 6.1% growth in the first three quarters[6] - The Chinese government is likely to implement policies to support export enterprises, including enhancing domestic sales channels and providing financial support to struggling companies[7] - The impact of domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand is expected to influence import growth positively in the coming months[10]

Report Summary Core View - The central bank will use repurchase agreements and MLF to inject medium - term liquidity into the market, and the scale of medium - term liquidity increase may decline due to the expected RRR cut in the fourth quarter. The resumption of treasury bond trading in October releases a signal of stabilizing growth and does not affect the RRR cut expectation [3][4] Key Points 1. Open Market Operations - On November 5, 2025, the central bank will conduct 700 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright repurchase operations, equivalent to a 300 - billion - yuan roll - over of 3 - month outright repurchase in November. It is expected to conduct a 6 - month outright repurchase operation with a likely increase in volume, resulting in a continuous 6 - month injection of medium - term liquidity [1] - There will be 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing in November, and the central bank may conduct an equivalent or slightly increased roll - over [3] 2. Reasons for Liquidity Injection - The issuance of 500 billion yuan of local government bonds by the end of the year, the growth of supporting loans after the 500 - billion - yuan policy - based financial instruments are put into use, and the increase in the maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit in November will lead to a tightening of the capital market. The central bank injects medium - term liquidity to maintain a stable and abundant capital supply [2] 3. Treasury Bond Trading - In October, the central bank resumed treasury bond trading, injecting 20 billion yuan of long - term liquidity into the banking system. The resumption is due to the rise of the 10 - year treasury bond yield to around 1.8% and the widening of the term spread, and it also helps to stabilize the macro - economy [4] 4. Policy Outlook - A new round of growth - stabilizing policies may be introduced in the fourth quarter, with fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and efforts to stabilize the real estate market. The central bank will use various price - based and quantity - based policy tools to boost growth, and there is ample room for monetary policy due to low inflation [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 3, the liquidity at the beginning of the month was ample; the bond market fluctuated within a narrow range, with long - term bonds performing slightly better; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues increased; the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across all maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors revised the "Administrative Measures for Registration Experts of Non - Financial Enterprise Debt Financing Instruments" to optimize the management mechanism and improve work efficiency, with investor representatives accounting for no less than 30% [3] - The Debt Management Department of the Ministry of Finance was listed on the official website of the Ministry of Finance, with responsibilities including formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, and preventing and resolving implicit debt risks [4] - In response to the U.S. Treasury Secretary's statement about potential tariff hikes if China continues to restrict rare - earth exports, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways to solve problems [5] - The "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue and consultation was held in Brussels, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [6] - The central bank renewed a bilateral local currency swap agreement with the Bank of Korea, with a scale of 400 billion yuan [6] - Hong Kong announced major policy initiatives to promote the development of the digital asset ecosystem, including relaxing regulatory restrictions on virtual asset trading platforms and promoting the "one - stop" clearing and settlement of tokenized money funds [7] 3.1.2 International News - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, indicating an eight - month consecutive contraction due to production decline and weak demand, but there were signs of a potential rebound in future orders [8] 3.1.3 Commodities - On November 3, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices continued to rise, with WTI 12 - month crude oil futures up 0.11%, Brent 1 - month crude oil futures up 0.19%, COMEX 12 - month gold futures up 0.44%, and NYMEX natural gas prices up 12.72% [9] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On November 3, the central bank conducted 78.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with a net withdrawal of 25.9 billion yuan as 337.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day [11] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On November 3, the liquidity at the beginning of the month was ample. DR001 decreased by 0.57bp to 1.313%, and DR007 decreased by 3.64bp to 1.419%. Other major funding rates also showed downward trends [12][13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On November 3, the bond market fluctuated within a narrow range, with long - term bonds performing slightly better. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 decreased by 0.25bp to 1.7900%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250215 decreased by 0.35bp to 1.8600% [15] - **Bond Tendering Results**: Multiple bonds were tendered on November 3, including agricultural development and China Development Bank bonds, with details such as issue scale, winning yield, and multiples provided [17] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: One industrial bond ("H0 Baolong 04") rose by over 25%, and one urban investment bond ("20 Jinzhou New City Bond") fell by over 31% [17][18] - **Credit Bond Events**: Several companies announced credit - related events, such as overdue debts, risk warnings, and listing as dishonest被执行人 [21] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On November 3, the three major A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.55%, 0.19%, and 0.29% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.19%, 0.15%, and 0.25% respectively [20] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Taiping Convertible Bond and Weining Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger the conditions for downward revision of the conversion price [22] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On November 3, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.60%, while the yields of other maturities generally increased. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds and between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds both widened by 2bp [23][24] - **European Bond Market**: The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased on November 3, with Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK seeing increases of 2bp, 2bp, 3bp, 3bp, and 3bp respectively [26][27] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on November 3 were provided, including bonds issued by companies such as New World Development and Lenovo Group [29]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience in the Eurozone, with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2%[11] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged, with two members voting against this decision, indicating potential future rate hikes[12] Economic Data - Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% exceeded the expected 0.1%, with France showing a 0.5% increase, the highest in three years, while Germany's growth stagnated[26] - In the U.S., September fiscal revenue was $543.7 billion, a 3.2% year-on-year increase, while expenditures were $345.7 billion, down 22.6% year-on-year, resulting in a fiscal surplus of $198 billion[17] - Japan's industrial and commercial sales showed improvement, with consumer confidence rising for three consecutive months[28] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.71% last week, with a year-to-date increase of 16.30%[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 9 basis points to 4.11%, reflecting market adjustments following the Fed's rate cut[5] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.01% to $61, with a year-to-date decline of 14.78%[5]