研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 根据 12 月 8 日海关总署公布的数据，以美元计价，2025 年 11 月出口额同比增长 5.9%，增速比 10 月加快 7.0 个百分点；其中，11 月对美出口同比下降 28.6%，降幅比 10 月扩大 3.4 个百分点；11 月进 口额同比增长 1.9%，增速比 10 月加快 0.9 百分点；其中，11 月自美进口同比下降 19.1%，降幅比 10 月 收窄 3.8 个百分点。 东方金诚宏观研究 11 月出口增速超预期反弹，进口增速小幅加快——2025 年 11 月贸易数据解读 一、11 月出口同比增速超预期反弹，主要原因包括去年同期基数下移，当月全球贸易整体回升， 以及在全球 AI 投资热潮和国内制造业转型升级带动下，11 月芯片、汽车出口增速显著加快等。当月我 国对美出口同比降幅扩大，但整体出口继续呈现"东方不亮西方亮"格局，在出口多元化推动下，11 月对欧盟、"一带一路"共建经济体等出口增速显著加快。 以人民币计价，11 月出口、进口额同比增速分别为 5.7%和 1.7%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要 源于过去一年中人民币对美元汇价略有升值。 以美元计价，11 月出口额同 ...

债市早报 中国人民银行等量续做 3 个月期买断式逆回购；资金面稳中偏松，主要期限国债 收益率继续上行 【内容摘要】12 月 4 日，央行公开市场继续净回笼，但资金面延续宽松，主要回购利率低位 波动；债市延续下跌，主要期限利率债收益率全线上行；万科多只债券继续下跌；碧桂园发行 强制性可转债等境外债重组相关议案获股东大会通过；新世界发展公布交换要约最终结果，预 计可削债近 11.7 亿美元；鹏博士公告下属子公司未能如期支付美元债本息，债券余额约 2.2 亿美元；转债市场主要指数延续下行，个券多数下跌；海外方面，主要期限美债收益率全线上 行，除英国外，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 （二）国际要闻 【美国挑战者企业 11 月裁员 7.1 万人，同比增速放缓至 24%，但仍为 2022 年以来同期最高水 平】美国企业的裁员计划在 11 月出现大幅回落，但招聘意向持续低迷，凸显企业在关税政策 和需求放缓的不确定经济环境中陷入观望。这一"不裁不招"的劳动力市场状态正成为政策制 定者和经济学家关注的焦点。全球职业介绍公司挑战者周四公布的数据显示，美国雇主 11 月 计划裁员人数环比骤降 53%至 71321 ...

央行公开市场继续净回笼，资金面稳中偏松，主要期限国债收益率多数上行 【内容摘要】12 月 3 日，央行公开市场继续净回笼，但资金面稳中偏松，主要回购利率低位 波动，债市窄幅震荡，利率债收益率多数上行，30 年超长债收益率上行超 3bps；万科多只债 券继续下跌；惠誉将万科、万科香港"CCC-"主体评级列入负面观察名单，下调万科香港票据 评级至"CC"；融侨集团公告子公司福建融装未能如期偿还 4000 万元光大银行债务，该笔银 行借款由融侨集团提供连带责任保证担保；转债市场主要指数随股市延续下行，个券多数下跌； 海外方面，美国 11 月 ADP 意外下滑，就业人数创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，主要期限美债 收益率全线下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【李强主持国务院第十七次专题学习强调，充分释放城乡融合发展蕴藏的巨大内需潜力】12 月 3 日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主 题，进行第十七次专题学习。国务院总理李强在主持学习时强调，要认真学习贯彻习近平总书 记和党中央关于深入实施新型城镇化战略的决策部署，坚持以人 ...

11 月制造业 PMI 回升；资金面宽松无虞，债市有所修复 【11 月制造业 PMI 回升】国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会 11 月 30 日发 布的数据显示，11 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点； 非制造业商务活动指数为 49.5%，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点。具体来看，11 月份，中型企业 PMI 为 48.9%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，景气度有所改善；小型企业 PMI 为 49.1%，比上月 上升 2.0 个百分点，为近 6 个月高点，景气水平显著回升。 【央行：继续坚持对虚拟货币的禁止性政策 持续打击虚拟货币相关非法金融活动】央行 11 月 28 日召开打击虚拟货币交易炒作工作协调机制会议。会议要求，各单位要坚持以习近平新时 代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，把防控风险作 为金融工作的永恒主题，继续坚持对虚拟货币的禁止性政策，持续打击虚拟货币相关非法金融 活动。各单位要深化协同配合，完善监管政策和法律依据，聚焦信息流、资金流等重点环节， 加强信息共享，进一步提升监测能力，严厉打击违法犯罪活动，保 ...

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials signaled a dovish stance, with support for a rate cut in December from officials like Waller and Daly[9] - Economic data showed a slowdown in U.S. retail sales and durable goods orders, indicating weakened consumer momentum[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.02% as markets continued to price in rate cut expectations[23] European Central Bank - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain current interest rates, citing economic resilience and stable inflation[10] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of further rate cuts in 2025, with a 40% chance of a cut by the end of 2026[10] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales grew by only 0.2% in September, significantly lower than August's 0.6%[13] - Durable goods orders increased by 0.5% in September, down from 3.0% in August, with non-defense orders rising just 0.1%[13] - Eurozone economic sentiment index rose to 97.0 in November, up from 96.8 in October, indicating improved economic confidence[22] Fiscal Policy - The UK government announced an additional £26 billion in taxes, raising the overall tax burden to 38% of GDP by the end of the parliamentary term[12] - The largest revenue increase will come from freezing the personal income tax threshold, expected to generate £12.7 billion by the 2030-31 fiscal year[12]

上周债市整体走弱，收益率曲线呈现熊陡走势 ——利率债周报（2025.11.24-2025.11.30） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 核心观点 上周债市整体走弱，长债收益率明显上行。全周看，10 年期国债期货主 力合约累计下跌 0.30%；上周五，10 年期国债收益率较前一周五上行 2.46bp， 1 年期国债收益率较前一周五微幅上行 0.09bp，期限利差继续走阔。 1 www.dfratings.com 11 月 24 日：周一，债市整体窄幅震荡，交易量也有所下降。当日银行间 主要利率债收益率多数上行，其中，10 年期国债收益率上行 0.44bp；国 债期货各期限主力合约收盘全线上涨，10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%。 11 月 25 日：周二，尽管央行超量续作 MLF，但受股市表现强势影响，债 市偏弱震荡。当日银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行，整体变化微弱，其 中 10 年期国债收益率上行 0.91bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多数下 跌，10 年期主力合约跌 0.08%。 11 月 26 日：周三，尽管股市下跌，但由于债市情绪较弱，加之基金销售 新规即将落地的传闻扰动，债市整体承压走弱。当日银行间主要利 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the external environment improved significantly, and the equity market rebounded with fluctuations. The strength of small and micro - cap stocks boosted the underlying stocks of convertible bonds. However, due to the impact of Vanke's bond extension event, the convertible bond market was the primary target for "fixed - income +" funds to reduce positions during net redemptions because of its good liquidity, resulting in a slight decline and a significant digestion of the previously rapidly rising valuation level. The convertible bond ETFs were divided, with a total net redemption of RMB 1.345 billion in convertible bonds. - Looking ahead, factors such as the new regulations for bond funds and year - end profit - taking sentiment increase the uncertainty on the demand side of the convertible bond market, amplifying price fluctuations. However, the basic pattern of weak supply and strong demand in the convertible bond market is unlikely to change substantially, and the impact is expected to be limited. The large - cap bottom - position convertible bonds with rapidly falling valuations have significant left - hand layout value. In the short term, convertible bonds are expected to follow the equity market in a high - to - low, structural market. After the Central Economic Work Conference provides direction for the market, an end - of - year pre - emptive market is expected to start, with hard - tech, new - consumption, and anti - involution - related convertible bonds remaining the key directions [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On November 25, the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Development of 'Artificial Intelligence +' Energy", proposing eight categories of scenarios, 37 key tasks, and more than a hundred specific applications to accelerate the application of artificial intelligence in the energy field. It plans to organize "Artificial Intelligence +" energy pilot projects to explore a new paradigm for the integrated development of "Artificial Intelligence +" energy [3]. - On November 27, six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand to Further Promote Consumption", proposing five measures and setting phased development goals. By 2027, three trillion - level consumption areas and ten billion - level consumption hotspots are expected to be formed [3]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major equity market indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 1.40%, 3.56%, and 4.54% respectively. Overseas, the US retail data was lower than expected, and the core PPI increase also declined, leading to a resurgence of the December interest - rate cut expectation. Coupled with new progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, most global capital markets rebounded, and commodities generally rose. Domestically, the equity market rebounded with fluctuations, but trading volume hit a nearly four - month low due to a wait - and - see attitude. Small and micro - cap stocks strengthened significantly, and there was policy speculation ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference. Vanke experienced a double - kill in stocks and bonds due to bond extension and market - based debt disposal rumors [5]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Major convertible bond market indices fell collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.27%, 0.50%, and 0.01% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of RMB 61.571 billion, a marginal decrease of RMB 4.105 billion from the previous week. The convertible bond ETFs were divided, with a total net redemption of RMB 1.345 billion in convertible bonds. Structurally, small - cap convertible bonds outperformed last week, and low - rated and high - priced convertible bonds rose against the trend, while high - rated and large - cap convertible bonds underperformed. In terms of valuation, the conversion value of the convertible bond market increased marginally to the 75.3% quantile since 2020, but the convertible bond price decreased marginally, and the valuation level dropped significantly by 7.8 percentage points to the 49.9% quantile. In terms of trading sentiment, the trading activity of both underlying stocks and convertible bonds declined [7][8]. - **Industry Performance**: Most convertible bonds in various industries rose last week. Convertible bonds in the steel and building materials industries led with average increases of over 2% and 1%, respectively, while those in the food and beverage and transportation industries fell by over 0.5%. In terms of valuation, the average conversion premium rate quantile since 2020 decreased by 13.03 percentage points to the 48.07% quantile, and the median conversion premium rate quantile decreased by 11.35 percentage points to the 48.54% quantile. Convertible bonds in industries such as household appliances, food and beverage, building decoration, and automobiles followed the upward trend more slowly, and their valuation quantiles decreased by more than 20 percentage points [10]. - **Individual Bonds**: Among 401 convertible bonds, 208 rose and 181 fell. Among the rising bonds, Dazhong Convertible Bond and Chun 23 Convertible Bond led the market with increases of over 14% and 13% respectively, benefiting from the lithium - mining and consumer - electronics markets. Tianyuan Convertible Bond also strengthened significantly, rising by over 10%. Among the falling bonds, Bo 23 Convertible Bond, Wei 24 Convertible Bond, and Xinhua Convertible Bond fell significantly by over 14%, 9%, and 8% respectively under the expectation of early redemption [11]. Primary Market - **Issuance and Listing**: No new convertible bonds were issued last week, Zhuomei Convertible Bond was listed, and no convertible bonds were delisted. As of November 28, the outstanding scale of the convertible bond market was RMB 565.308 billion, a decrease of RMB 168.585 billion from the beginning of the year and a decrease of RMB 33.28 billion from the previous week. Zhuomei Convertible Bond had a 57.3% daily limit on the first - listing day and rose by over 74.9% in the first week, with a conversion premium rate of 92.69% as of last Friday, exceeding the market median level [30]. - **Conversion and Redemption**: Ten convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5% last week, an increase of three from the previous week. Among them, Qibin Convertible Bond, Wei 24 Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, and Yuguang Convertible Bond announced early redemption, and Xinhua Convertible Bond and Yong 02 Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger early redemption. Mingdian Zhuan 02, Fenghuo Convertible Bond, Ying 19 Convertible Bond, and Dongfeng Convertible Bond are about to expire and be delisted [31]. - **Issuance Progress**: The issuance of convertible bonds by Shang Sheng Electronics was approved by the exchange, and the issuance of convertible bonds by Lianrui New Materials was approved by the CSRC. As of last Friday, seven convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC and waiting to be issued, with a total scale of RMB 4.718 billion, and six convertible bonds passed the review committee, with a total scale of RMB 7.458 billion [32]. - **Clause Tracking**: No convertible bonds announced a downward revision of the conversion price last week, and four convertible bonds announced early redemption. Tianneng Convertible Bond and Lanfan Convertible Bond announced that the board of directors proposed a downward revision of the conversion price; Sanfang Convertible Bond and Jin 23 Convertible Bond announced no downward revision of the conversion price; Qixiang Zhuan 2, Changhong Convertible Bond, and Lepu Zhuan 2 announced that they were about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price. Zhongneng Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, Wei 24 Convertible Bond, and Zhongqi Convertible Bond announced early redemption; Fuxin Convertible Bond announced no early redemption; Nenghui Convertible Bond, Meinuo Convertible Bond, Shenglan Convertible Bond, Limin Convertible Bond, Huamao Convertible Bond, and Xinhua Convertible Bond announced that they were expected to trigger the early - redemption condition [34].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, aligning with market expectations[1] - The manufacturing new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, driven by the implementation of the "two 500 billion" growth stabilization policies[2] - The manufacturing production index rebounded to 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to non-contraction territory[3] Economic Factors - The recent "anti-involution" policies have led to a rise in raw material prices, with the main raw material price index increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%[4] - The production expectations index for manufacturing improved by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers[5] - The construction PMI rose to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, supported by the completion of 500 billion new policy financial tools[7] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, marking the first entry into contraction territory for the year[6] - The service sector's decline is attributed to weakened consumer demand and significant adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall macroeconomic environment remains stable but shows signs of weakness, with the comprehensive PMI output index falling below the equilibrium line for the first time this year[8] - Projections indicate a potential decline in the manufacturing PMI to around 49.1% in December, influenced by external trade pressures and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[8]

【习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话】11 月 24 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电 话。习近平指出，上个月我们在韩国釜山成功举行会晤，达成很多重要共识，为中美关系这艘 巨轮稳健前行校准航向、注入动力，也向世界传递积极信号。釜山会晤以来，中美关系总体稳 定向好，受到两国和国际社会普遍欢迎，事实再次说明，中美"合则两利、斗则俱伤"是经过 实践反复验证的常识，中美"相互成就、共同繁荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住 这个势头，坚持正确方向，秉持平等、尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，争取 更多积极进展，为中美关系打开新的合作空间，更好造福两国人民和世界人民。 【央行开展万亿元 MLF 操作，连续九个月超量续做】11 月 24 日，据央行消息，11 月 25 日， 央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 10000 亿元 MLF（中期借贷便利）操作， 期限为 1 年期。Wind 数据显示，11 月将有 9000 亿元 MLF 到期。这意味着 11 月 MLF 净投放为 1000 亿元，连续第九个月加量续做，符合市场预期。 【内容摘要】11 月 24 日，资金面宽松无虞，主要回购利率低位盘 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On November 21, the liquidity situation continued to ease, but market sentiment remained weak, leading to a volatile adjustment in the bond market. The convertible bond market followed the decline of the equity market, with most convertible bond indices and individual bonds falling. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies mostly decreased as well [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - Starting from next June, savings bonds (electronic) will be included in the scope of personal pension products [3]. - From January to October this year, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises in China increased by 14.7% year - on - year, while the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [3]. - The issuance of government bonds has entered a dense period, which is an important manifestation of the continuous implementation of proactive fiscal policies [3]. - **International News** - On November 21 local time, New York Fed President John Williams said there is room for further interest rate cuts in the near term [4]. - The preliminary value of the U.S. Markit Composite PMI in November reached the fastest growth in four months, with the service industry accelerating and the manufacturing industry slowing down [5]. - **Commodities** - On November 21, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, while international natural gas prices turned up [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations** - On November 21, the central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates** - Due to the end of the tax period and continuous net injections by the central bank, the liquidity situation continued to ease on November 21. Key funding rates such as DR001 and DR007 declined [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yields** - On November 21, despite the stock market decline, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted due to weak market sentiment. Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased slightly [12]. - **Bond Tendering** - On November 21, the 3 - year "25进出清发007(增发15)" was tendered, with a issuance scale of 2 billion yuan and a winning yield of 1.6542% [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On November 21, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0中骏02", deviated by more than 10%, rising by over 71% [13]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple companies announced important events, including debt restructuring, bond exchange offers, regulatory warnings, and cancellations of bond issuances [14][15]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On November 21, the three major A - share indices fell, and the convertible bond market also declined. Most convertible bond indices and individual bonds fell, with a decrease in trading volume [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On November 24, "卓镁转债" will be listed. Multiple convertible bonds announced price adjustments, potential redemptions, etc. on November 21 [18][19]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On November 21, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, and the yield spreads between different maturities changed [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On November 21, except for the 10 - year government bond yield in the UK, which increased, yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally declined [23]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on November 21, prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed, with some rising and some falling [25].