资金面保持均衡平稳；债市偏弱震荡 【内容摘要】2 月 2 日，资金面保持均衡平稳；债市偏弱震荡；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【李强在山东调研时强调坚持远近结合，抓好开局起步，更加扎实有效促发展惠民生增后劲】 中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强 2 月 2 日在山东调研。他强调，要深入贯彻习近平总书 记关于做好今年和"十五五"时期经济社会发展工作的重要指示精神，坚持远近结合，抓好开 局起步，靠前发力实施各项政策，坚决把党中央各项决策部署落实到位，更加扎实有效地促发 展惠民生增后劲。 财政部、税务总局日前发布《增值税预缴税款管理办法》《关于增值税进项税额抵扣等有关事 项的公告》，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起施行。财政部、税务总局日前发布《长期资产进项税额抵 扣暂行办法》，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起施行。办法提到，纳税人取得以下长期资产，用于混合 用途的，购进时先全额抵扣进项税额，此后在用于混合用途期间，根据调整年限计算五类不允 许抵扣项目对应的不得从销项税额中抵扣的进项税额，逐 ...

【内容摘要】 1 月 30 日，资金面整体均衡平稳；债市偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体下跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》】 2 月 1 日出版的第 3 期《求是》杂志发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展 之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，建设金融强国，必须加快构建中国特色现代金融体系。一 是科学稳健的金融调控体系，二是结构合理的金融市场体系，三是分工协作的金融机构体系， 四是完备有效的金融监管体系，五是多样化专业性的金融产品和服务体系，六是自主可控、安 全高效的金融基础设施体系。 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%；资金面整体均衡平稳，债市偏强震荡 （三）大宗商品 【国际原油期货价格转跌，国际天然气价格转涨】1 月 30 日，WTI 3 月原油期货收跌 0.32%， 报 65.21 美元/桶；布伦特 3 月原油期货收跌 0.03%，报 70.69 美元/桶；COMEX 黄金期货下跌 8.88%，报 4846.20 美元/ ...

作者 分析师 瞿瑞 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 债市偏强震荡，收益率曲线延续平坦化 ——利率债周报（2026.1.26-2026.2.1） 核心观点 ·· 一、上周债市回顾 1. 二级市场 上周债市偏强震荡，长债收益率继续下行。全周看，10 年期国债期货 主力合约累计上涨 0.10%；上周五 10 年期国债收益率较前一周五下行 1.86bp，1 年期国债收益率较前一周五上行 1.80bp，期限利差继续收窄。 1 www.dfratings.com ·· 1 月 26 日：周一，受资金面未见明显缓和，叠加商品市场表现强劲 影响，债市整体震荡盘整。当日银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行， 但 10 年期国债收益率下行 0.56bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多 数下跌，10 年期主力合约跌 0.02%。 1 月 27 日：周二，股市午后翻红，股债跷跷板效应显现，债市震荡 调整。当日银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行，10 年期国债收益率 上行 0.69bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多数持平，其中，10 年 期主力合约持平。 1 月 28 日：周三，受央行可能推出新型隔夜工具投放流动性的传闻 提振，债市震荡回暖 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the equity market style switched, with the small - cap style continuing to weaken. The convertible bond market adjusted with reduced volume, showing anti - decline properties, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index outperformed the Wind Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Weighted Index by 0.43 pcts. Convertible bond ETFs had a net subscription of 2.545 billion yuan, supporting the convertible bond valuation. [2] - In the short term, convertible bonds are expected to follow the underlying stocks in volatile consolidation, maintaining a structural market with rapid rotation. Large - cap and dividend convertible bonds are expected to continue to dominate. However, during the wide - range volatility period, convertible bonds have an asymmetric advantage. After the performance announcements, the risk - aversion sentiment in small - and micro - cap stocks will gradually ease, and the regulatory attitude will warm up. Before the Spring Festival, a new round of favorable and policy - game market is expected to start, with the market style switching back to small - cap dominance, which will drive the convertible bond market. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Tracking - On January 27, the State Council issued the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China", which will come into force on May 15, 2026. It supports the development of new industrial formats, promotes the implementation of pharmaceutical innovation results, and improves various aspects of drug management. [3] - On January 29, the State Council issued the "Guidelines on Performance Comparison Benchmarks for Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", proposing 12 policy measures and identifying key service consumption areas such as transportation and household services, and strengthening support for cultivating new growth points in service consumption. [2][3] Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major equity market indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell 0.44%, 1.62%, and 0.09% respectively. Overseas, the Fed's hawkish nomination and the sharp adjustment in the precious metal market affected the global capital market. Domestically, although the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased in 2025, the January PMI index declined, and the market risk preference decreased. The small - and micro - cap stocks weakened, and the large - cap dividend stocks strengthened. [6] - **Convertible Bond Market**: Major convertible bond market indices followed the decline. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61%, 2.56%, and 2.61% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of 9.0209 billion yuan, a marginal decrease of 308.6 million yuan from the previous week. Convertible bond ETFs showed differentiation, with a net subscription of 2.545 billion yuan in total, supporting the valuation. [7] - **Structural Analysis**: The large - cap style in the convertible bond market was dominant due to its anti - decline property. The median prices of convertible bonds and their underlying stocks were still at a high level, the conversion value quantile decreased, and the median valuation level increased slightly. The trading activity of underlying stocks decreased, while that of convertible bonds increased. [9] - **Industry Analysis**: All industries' convertible bonds fell. Construction materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, and public utilities had relatively small average declines, while national defense and military industry and computer industries had larger average declines. The valuation of convertible bonds in different industries was differentiated. [10] - **Individual Bond Analysis**: Most convertible bonds rose. Baichuan Convertible Bond 2 led the rise with an increase of over 12%, while high - position convertible bonds such as Xinzhi Convertible Bond and Hangyu Convertible Bond had significant declines. [13] - **Price and Valuation**: The arithmetic average and median of convertible bond prices decreased. The arithmetic average of the conversion premium rate increased, and the median decreased. The arithmetic average and median of the pure - bond premium rate decreased. [24] Primary Market - **Issuance and Listing**: No new convertible bonds were issued last week. Lianrui Convertible Bond and Naipu Convertible Bond 02 were listed, and several convertible bonds were redeemed early and delisted. As of last Friday, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 55.2588 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.596 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and 3.682 billion yuan from the previous week. [30] - **Conversion**: Ten convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%, one more than the previous week. Some bonds had announced early redemption or were about to trigger the strong - redemption condition. [33] - **Approval Progress**: Star Semiconductor's convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange. One convertible bond passed the review of the Issuance Examination Committee, with a total scale of 1.5 billion yuan. As of last Friday, eight convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, with a total scale of 6.164 billion yuan. [34] - **Clause Tracking**: One convertible bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and two announced early redemption. Some bonds announced not to revise the conversion price downward or were about to trigger the downward - revision condition, and many bonds were expected to trigger the early - redemption condition. [35]

Economic Indicators - In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December 2025, indicating a contraction[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from December 2025[1] Contributing Factors - Seasonal factors contributed to the decline, as January is typically a slow month for manufacturing, with an average drop of 0.3 percentage points over the past decade[2] - The base effect from a significant increase in December 2025's PMI (up 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%) also pressured January's figures[2] - Weak domestic investment and consumption demand, alongside high external uncertainties, particularly in the real estate market, negatively impacted manufacturing[2] Specific Index Movements - The new orders index for manufacturing fell 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, the primary driver of the PMI decline[2] - The manufacturing new export orders index decreased by 1.2 percentage points, indicating potential export slowdown due to external uncertainties[2] - The production index in manufacturing dropped 1 percentage point to 50.6%, but remained in the expansion zone, supported by global AI investment trends[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 52% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining in expansion territory due to strong exports and domestic equipment upgrades[5] - Consumer goods and basic materials PMIs fell to 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, primarily due to slowing market demand[5] - The construction PMI dropped significantly by 4 percentage points to 48.8%, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall economic sentiment is expected to decline further in February due to the upcoming Spring Festival and increased holiday downtime[6] - Future manufacturing sentiment will largely depend on export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies[6] - There is potential for monetary policy easing in the second quarter, with fiscal policies expected to strengthen consumption and investment[6]

美联储将进入政策观察期，6 月前降息可能性偏低 ——美联储 1 月货币政策会议点评与展望 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 事件：北京时间周四（1 月 29 日）凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基 金利率目标区间维持在 3.5%至 3.75%之间，符合市场普遍预期。本次利率决议有两票反对，比上次少 一票，沃勒投反对票，和特朗普"钦点"理事米兰的主张一致。本次美联储声明删除了就业风险增加 的说辞，指出经济形势有改善、尤其在失业率上升方面已有企稳迹象，暗示联储决策者更谨慎，并不 急于继续行动。鲍威尔表示，当前政策并非"明显偏紧"，通胀风险已经在一定程度上消退，就业风 险可能正趋于稳定，加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设。关税的大部分影响已经传导至经济， 预计关税通胀将在 2026 年年中消退。此外，他并未对备受关注的政治议题作出实质性回应，但表示 美联储理事库克遭遇的官司可能是美联储历史上最重大的案件。他还建议，下一届美联储主席应远离 民选政治。 对此，东方金诚解读如下： 本次会议声明与鲍威尔讲话均显示，美联储对当前经济形势更加乐观，这与近期经济、就业数据 走势相印证，是本次会议暂停降息的主要原因。 ...

国际金价历史性突破 5100 美元关口；资金面延续紧平衡态势，债市震荡盘整 【内容摘要】1 月 26 日，税期结束，但资金面紧平衡态势未见明显缓和；债市震荡盘整；转 债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【央行：维护金融市场稳健运行和金融体系整体稳定】1 月 22 日，央行召开 2026 年宏观审慎 工作会议，总结 2025 年宏观审慎管理和跨境人民币业务工作，分析当前形势，部署 2026 年工 作。会议要求，2026 年宏观审慎工作要继续按照构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系部署，强 化中央银行宏观审慎管理功能，持续完善宏观审慎和金融稳定委员会工作机制，逐步拓展宏观 审慎政策覆盖范围，前瞻性研判系统性金融风险隐患，创新丰富政策工具箱，维护金融市场稳 健运行和金融体系整体稳定。以服务构建新发展格局为导向，进一步完善人民币跨境使用政策， 促进货物贸易便利化，优化人民币清算行布局，更好发挥货币互换作用，发展人民币离岸市场， 支持上海国际金融中心建设，更好满足各类主体人民币交易结算、投融资、风险管理等需求。 【国 ...

地缘政治风险加剧、美元走弱，金价突 破历史高位 ——黄金周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 2026 年 1 月 27 日 地缘政治风险加剧、美元走弱，金价突破历史高位。上周五 （1 月 23 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五上涨 8.07%至 1115.64 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周五上涨 8.30% 至 4983.10 美元/盎司；现货方面，黄金 T+D 现货价格上涨 7.69%至1110.35元/克，伦敦金现货价格上涨8.31%至4981.31 美元/盎司。具体来看，上周特朗普政府就格陵兰岛问题对欧 洲八国发起关税威胁，同时还多次威胁军事干涉伊朗局势，加 之此前对委内瑞拉的霸权措施，这意味着地缘政治风险持续扩 大、全球经贸环境不确定性加剧，显著推升市场避险情绪，金 价随之大幅上涨。此外，由于市场高度警惕日本政府可能出手 干预汇市，上周五日本央行会议后日元剧烈反弹，日元对美元 汇价大幅上涨，引发美元走弱，也是推动黄金价格大涨的原因 之一。整体上看，受地缘政治风险加剧、美元走弱提振，上周 金价突破历史高位。 本周（1 月 26 日当周）金价料将继 ...

中盘转债开始占优，关注市场风格切换 ——可转债周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） 核心观点 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 ·· 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 翟恬甜 副总经理 曹源源 上周，财政部等五部门发布《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息 政策的通知》，对符合条件的中小微民营企业按照贷款本金 给予年化 1.5 个百分点、期限不超过 2 年的贴息支持；证监 会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》，强调 了业绩比较基准的表征作用、运用的严肃性和稳定性，并表 示将强化基金管理人的内部控制和管理，严格监管。 时间 2026 年 1 月 26 日 二级市场方面：上周，权益市场量能维持高位，转债市场在 小盘风格强势拉动下，延续震荡上行，估值有所压降，中证 转债继续跑赢上证指数 4.36pcts。结构上看，万得可转债 AA 级指数以 4.46%涨幅领跑各万得细分指数，中、高价转债， 中、小盘转债也表现较强，中盘转债跑赢小盘转债 0.27pcts。 转债 ETF 继续净申购 42.89 亿元，博时可转债 ETF 大幅增持 41.48 亿元，海富通上证可转债 ETF 小幅增持 1.41 亿元。 ...

作者 2026 年 1 月 26 日 日本央行按兵不动，地缘风险扰动全球市场 ——海外宏观周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） | | | 名称 | 2026/1/25 | 一周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 作者 | | 上证指数 | 4136 | 0.84% | 4.22% | | 东方金诚 研究发展部 | | 深证成指 | 14440 | 1.11% | 6.76% | | | | 标普 500 | 6916 | -0.35% | 1.02% | | 分析师 徐嘉琦 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 49099 | -0.53% | 2.15% | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23501 | -0.06% | 1.12% | | 执行总监 冯琳 | 股市 | 英国富时 100 | 10143 | -0.90% | 2.14% | | | | 德国 DAX | 24901 | -1.57% | 1.68% | | | | 法国 CAC40 | 8143 | -1.40% | -0.08% | | | | 日经 225 | ...