Fiscal Policy - The government will significantly accelerate bond issuance in the second half of the year, with a peak expected in Q3, supporting infrastructure investment growth at around 8%[1] - A special long-term bond fund of 300 billion will be allocated for large-scale equipment upgrades and durable goods replacement, which is expected to have an immediate impact on investment and consumption[1] - There is a possibility of issuing an additional 1 trillion in long-term special bonds in H2 2023, along with special refinancing bonds to address local government hidden debt risks[1] Monetary Policy - Following the July interest rate cut, there is room for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in Q3 to support large-scale government bond issuance[1] - Banks may accelerate credit issuance in Q3, leveraging the central bank's interest rate cut to support the real economy[1] - A further reduction in policy interest rates is possible in Q4 to address low price levels and stabilize economic growth around 5.0%[1] Real Estate Policy - The policy to purchase existing residential properties for affordable housing will be advanced with greater intensity, focusing on resolving funding issues[2] - The financing coordination mechanism will enhance bank lending for real estate development, crucial for ensuring housing delivery and managing credit risks for developers[2] - There is an expectation for a continued downward adjustment of residential mortgage rates to improve market stability[2] Structural Reforms - Key structural reforms are anticipated to progress, particularly in improving the business environment for private enterprises[2] - The reform of the fiscal and tax system is urgent, with plans to shift consumption tax collection to local governments to enhance their incentive to promote consumption[2] - Efforts will be made to optimize land management systems to provide more development space for economically strong regions[2]

然后首先还是跟大家介绍一下就是昨天大家这个非常关注的新东方的这个24Q4以及25Q1的这么一个业绩的情况以及具体的一些业务拆分然后最后呢我会再简单对于公司的一个基本的框架还有他的一些研究的一些我们最近发现的一些编辑的变化进行一个解读我这边就主要是介绍一下我们的整个的最新的一个情况 其实大家已经看到了昨天的那个发布的24Q4以及24全年以及25Q1的业绩指引其实已经非常明确了简单介绍一下这个具体情况首先24全年的收入是43个亿美金同比增长44%毛利润是22.63同比增长42%毛利率是52.45然后同比就下降1%然后我们可以看到规模利润的话是Nongap的经侨规模利润是3.81亿美金同比增长37 然后margin对应是8.84然后一致预期之前其实是4.2亿美金然后Q4财年的对应的营收是11.37亿美金同比增长32这个其实符合BJ一致预期的毛利润是5.94亿美金同比增长27%毛利率52.28同比下降2%然后销售费用是2.08亿美金费用率18个点增加1%管理费用3.76亿美金同比增长37%费用率增加1% 然后none gap规模利润是0.37亿美元这个比一致预期的这个0.72其实是有一点下滑的margin是3.25然 ...

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 2024 年 7 月 30 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 降息预期加强，金价"V"型反弹 黄金周报（2024.7.22-2024.7.28） 核心观点 ⚫ 受交易性回调以及降息预期加强等多空因素交织影响，上周 黄金价格呈"V"型走势，整体小幅下跌。上周五（7 月 26 日），沪金主力期货价格较前一周五（7 月 19 日）下跌 1.51% 至 557.38 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前一周五下降 0.71%至 2385.70 美元/盎司；黄金 T+D 现货价格下跌 1.13%至 554.79 元/克，伦敦金现货价格下降 0.57%至 2386.89 美元/盎 司。具体来看，受止盈需求压制，上半周金价持续回落；后半 周，美国 6 月 PCE 数据公布，显示通胀继续处于降温通道，叠 加近期美国经济数据表现整体相对偏弱，再度强化市场对 9 月 降息的预期，带动金价出现反弹。整体上看，上周国际金价先 跌后涨，整体小幅下跌。 本周（7 月 29 日当周）黄金价格或有一定上行空间。本周美 联储将举行 7 月议息会议，近期美国通胀数据持续改 ...

Revenue Insights - In June 2024, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, an improvement from May's decline of 3.2%[1] - The cumulative government fund revenue from January to June 2024 fell by 15.3%, compared to a 10.8% decline from January to May[1] - Tax revenue in June dropped by 8.5%, worsening from May's decline of 6.1%[4] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in June 2024 decreased by 3.0%, a significant drop from the 2.6% increase in May[1] - Cumulative expenditure from January to June 2024 grew by 2.0%, down from 3.4% in the previous five months[6] - By the end of June, public budget expenditure completed 47.8% of the annual budget, below the five-year average of 49.0%[6] Government Fund Dynamics - In June, government fund income fell by 32.4%, a decline that expanded by 10.2 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Land transfer revenue in June decreased by 35.3%, worsening from May's decline of 27.4%[7] - Cumulative government fund expenditure from January to June 2024 decreased by 17.5%, exceeding the revenue decline[7] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and utilize ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the second half of 2024[9] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies to support economic growth, aiming for a GDP growth target of 5%[9]

2024 年 7 月 30 日中央政治局会议公报要点解读 不过，二季度 GDP 同比增速降至 4.7%，显示经济增长动能有所减弱，背后主要是以居 民消费和民间投资增速下行为代表，国内有效需求不足，对宏观经济运行的拖累效应加大。 这也是"经济运行出现分化"的具体体现。背后是二季度房地产行业继续处于调整阶段，房 价下行带来资产缩水效应，对居民消费信心和民间投资影响较大，房地产投资较大幅度下滑 也在一定程度抵消了制造业投资的快速增长，稳投资压力较大。而"重点领域风险隐患仍然 较多"，除了指向房地产行业调整外，还包括地方化债需要进一步推进，中小金融机构风险 有待进一步化解等。作为传统的主要经济增长动力，当前房地产行业和城投平台都处于调整 阶段，而新动能培育、新质生产力发展还需要一个过程，导致"新旧动能转换存在阵痛"， 经济总体上面临一定下行压力。 值得注意的是，7 月 19 日国常会决定，统筹安排超长期特别国债资金，进一步推动大 规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。与此前超长期特别国债资金主要用于支持扩投资不同，此 次安排 1500 亿元超长期特别国债资金支持耐用消费品以旧换新。这一方面显示超长期特别 国债资金使用范围扩展 ...

Economic Indicators - In July, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction[5] - The new orders index fell to 49.3%, marking three consecutive months in the contraction zone[7] - The production index decreased to 50.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, contributing to the overall PMI decline[8] Price Trends - The factory price index dropped by 1.6 percentage points to 46.3%, while the main raw material purchase price index fell by 1.8 percentage points to 49.9%, entering the contraction zone for the first time in 13 months[3] - Consumer confidence index was reported at 86.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weakened consumer sentiment[7] Sector Performance - The construction business activity index was 51.3%, down 1.1 percentage points, the lowest level in nearly 12 months, primarily due to declining real estate investment[17] - The service sector PMI stood at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, reflecting weak performance in retail and real estate services[12] Future Outlook - The central political bureau emphasized the need to boost domestic demand, particularly consumption, to counteract insufficient effective demand[7] - The manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to approximately 49.7% in August, driven by government stimulus measures and a gradual release of the central bank's interest rate cuts[11]

Summary of Conference Call Transcript Company/Industry Involved - The discussion pertains to the overall market conditions and trends observed from mid-2022 to the end of 2023, indicating a focus on the broader economic environment rather than a specific company or industry. Core Points and Arguments - The period from mid-2022 to the end of 2023 has been characterized as an upward trend despite various challenges encountered along the way, suggesting resilience in the market conditions [1]. - The statement implies that the market was in a relatively good state during this timeframe, indicating potential opportunities for investment [1]. - It is noted that certain events occurred during this period that contributed to developments by the end of 2023, hinting at underlying factors that may have influenced market dynamics [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of "磕磕绊绊的事情" (challenges) suggests that while the overall trend was positive, there were significant hurdles that could have impacted investor sentiment and market performance [1]. - The reference to events leading to the end of 2023 indicates that there may be critical insights or lessons learned that could inform future investment strategies [1].

《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》三个要点解读 一、《决定》要求"因地制宜发展新质生产力"。首先，这意味着培育新质 生产力将成为推动高质量发展的核心动力。未来财政、金融等各类经济资源都会 向新质生产方向集聚，各项体制机制改革也将围绕培育新质生产力展开，疏通各 类堵点、卡点。我们预计，接下来新质生产力发展将持续成为拉动经济增长的一 个重要动力。可以看到，上半年高技术制造业增加值同比增速达到 8.7%，分别 领先整体工业增加值增速和 GDP 增速 2.7 和 3.7 个百分点；上半年高技术制造业 投资同比增长 10.1%，分别较制造业投资和整体固定资产投资增速高 0.6 和 6.2 个百分点。 《决定》要求"积极发展科技金融"，其中的一个重点是金融要为发展新质 生产力服务。事实上，金融是新质生产力的一个重要孵化器，尤其以独角兽为代 表。从这个意义上讲，若要推进科技创新，首先就要鼓励金融创新。只有这样， 才能为培育新质生产力提供源源不断的市场化资金来源，并将新质生产力融入经 济大循环，带来实实在在的经济回报，进而提升国家科技实力，切实推动高质量 发展。 从《决定》的部署来看，"扩展地方税源" ...

东方金诚宏观研究 央行降息并带动 LPR 报价下调，符合市场预期 王青李晓峰冯琳 与此同时，主要受有效消费需求不足影响，上半年 CPI 累计同比上涨 0.1%，其中 6 月 CPI 同比涨幅为 0.2%。预计下半年消费者价格指数仍会运行在 1.0%以下的低位区间。PPI 方 面，在房地产行业持续调整背景下，上半年工业品需求偏弱，PPI 累计同比为-2.1%，其中主 要受上年同期基数下沉推动，6 月 PPI 同比降幅收窄至-0.8%。不过，下半年 PPI 同比转正难 度较大。这些都意味着下半年物价水平还将低位运行。可以看到，上半年体现综合物价水平 的 GDP 平减指数同比为-0.9%，已连续四个季度处于负值区间，下半年还将处于低位运行状 态。这意味着计入物价因素，当前及未来一段时间企业和居民实际贷款利率仍会处在偏高水 平。除通过提振总需求引导物价水平温和回升外，当前有必要通过下调政策利率来引导名义 贷款利率下行，缓解实际利率偏高对经济持续回升以及楼市实现软着陆的不利影响。 本研究报告仅授权东方金诚指定的使用者使用，且该等使用者必须按照授权确定的方式使用，相关引用必须注明来自东方金诚且不得篡 改、歪曲或有任何类似 ...

1 销售数据边际改善 房价跌幅环比收窄 ——2024 年 6 月房地产行业运行情况报告 分析师 唐晓琳 闫骏 核心观点: 销售端:"5.17"楼市新政叠加季节性因素影响带动 6 月销售数据边际改善,6 月销售面积和销售 额同比降幅显著收窄;价格方面,70 城二手住宅价格和新房住宅价格跌幅出现不同程度收窄,已 有 4 座城市二手住宅价格重回上涨区间。 投资端:6 月投资端停止加速下滑,开工数据环比有所好转,但绝对水平仍处低位,且开工、施工、 竣工面积 1-6 月累计降幅均保持两位数,尚难言乐观;土地市场方面,6 月土地成交面积同比降幅 与上月持平,二三线城市土地价格有所回升。整体来看,受楼市持续低迷影响,上半年土地市场 成交情况偏弱。 政策端:住房城乡建设部召开收购已建成存量商品房用作保障性住房工作视频会议,持续推进收 购存量商品房用作保障房工作进度,以实现"去库存";住房城乡建设部、金融监管总局联合召 开保交房政策培训视频会议,加快推进房地产融资协调机制落地见效,促进保交楼工作的顺利推 进。 下半年在同期基数偏低和政策持续加码的双重影响下,销售端有望实现修复。高频数据显示,7 月 1-15 日 30 大中城市 ...