Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing narrow consolidation with the three major indices showing slight gains, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.50%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.01% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 91 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase after continuous volume increases [7] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include Construction Materials (up 4.09%), National Defense and Military Industry (up 3.23%), and Oil and Petrochemicals (up 3.07%) [3][4] - Conversely, the sectors with the poorest performance include Beauty and Personal Care (down 0.76%), Banking (down 0.43%), and Pharmaceutical and Biological (down 0.42%) [3][4] Concept Indices - Among concept indices, the Domestic Aircraft Carrier concept led with a gain of 3.82%, followed by Combustible Ice (up 3.57%) and Large Aircraft (up 3.04%) [3][4] - On the downside, sectors such as Sci-Tech New Stocks and Photoresists saw declines of 1.09% and 0.93%, respectively [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue receiving support from multiple favorable factors, including the "14th Five-Year" industrial guidance, overseas liquidity easing, and domestic policy support [7] - The upcoming economic stabilization policies are expected to drive market risk appetite higher, suggesting a potential upward trend as the spring market approaches [7] Government Initiatives - A significant government initiative includes the allocation of 93.6 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds to support equipment upgrades across various sectors, which is projected to stimulate total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [6]

专题策略/A 股市场 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：尹炜祺 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522120001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱：yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：曾浩 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：熊越 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524080001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱：xiongyue@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：叶子沛 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340525070001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：yezipei@dgzq.com.cn 2026 年 1 月 22 日 春季行情有望延续，把握结构性机会 近期市场连续三万亿成交背后的逻辑思考 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4116.94, up 0.08% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.70% to close at 14255.13, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.54% to 3295.52 [2] - The STAR 50 Index saw a significant rise of 3.53%, closing at 1535.39 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals, electronics, machinery, steel, and building materials, with non-ferrous metals leading at a gain of 2.79% [3] - Conversely, the banking sector saw a decline of 1.58%, along with coal and food & beverage sectors, which fell by 1.57% and 1.53% respectively [3] - Notable concept indices included lead and zinc metals, which rose by 5.01% and 4.83%, while the duty-free shop sector declined by 1.16% [3] Future Outlook - The market is currently consolidating after reaching a new high, with a trading volume of 2.6 trillion yuan, down 177.1 billion from the previous trading day [6] - The report suggests that the market's upward trend may continue, supported by regulatory guidance and macroeconomic factors [6] - As the earnings forecast season approaches, investor sentiment is expected to increase, shifting focus from macro liquidity to micro performance verification [6] - Key sectors to watch include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and power equipment [6] Policy Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumer capacity through strategic plans for 2026-2030 [5] - The focus is on creating an economic model driven by domestic demand and consumption, which is expected to support overall market stability [5]

Group 1: Gold - Financial Attributes and Support from Rate Cuts - Since 2025, international gold prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, driven by weakened dollar credit, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, continued net purchases of gold by global central banks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [14][33] - As of January 20, 2026, COMEX gold futures reached $4,764 per ounce, while London spot gold closed at $4,747.80 per ounce, and Shanghai gold prices hit 1,055.99 yuan per gram [15][75] - The financial attributes of gold are regaining strength, with its monetary, investment, and safe-haven properties being influenced by real interest rates, the dollar index, and geopolitical situations [17][75] Group 2: Silver - Industrial Demand and Financial Attributes - Silver's industrial demand is being driven by its unique physical properties, making it essential in solar photovoltaic, automotive, and data center sectors [65][76] - The global silver supply is expected to remain tight due to declining ore grades and increasing production costs, with a projected supply of approximately 32,100 tons and demand of about 35,700 tons in 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [51][52] - As of January 20, 2026, COMEX silver prices reached $94.06 per ounce, reflecting a 216.5% increase since the beginning of 2025, while the gold-silver ratio stood at 50.49 [66][77] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988), Xinyi Silver (000426), Jiangxi Copper (600362), and Shengda Resources (000603) for potential investment opportunities [75][77]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the forklift industry, emphasizing the importance of lithium battery replacement and product export as key investment themes [1]. Core Insights - The forklift industry is experiencing a clear transition towards electrification, driven by increasing domestic demand and favorable policies. The focus is shifting towards safety regulations, emission controls, and digital supervision, which guide the industry's upgrade direction [4][11]. - The electrification of forklifts, particularly through lithium batteries, is identified as a primary growth driver. The advantages of electric forklifts include environmental friendliness, low noise, and low energy consumption, leading to increased penetration in high-demand sectors [4][38]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic leaders are enhancing their core competitiveness through high-performance products and deepening international market presence. The industry is characterized by significant barriers to entry, including technology, brand, and distribution channels [4][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Demand and Market Overview - The forklift industry in China has seen rapid growth, with a projected 2024 sales volume of 1.45 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.93% [18]. - The global forklift market is expected to reach 21.598 million units in 2024, with Asia accounting for 52.01% of sales [18][29]. - The competitive landscape is dominated by foreign companies, with the top three (CR3) holding approximately 53% market share in 2024 [29]. 2. Electrification and Lithium Battery Market - The report emphasizes that lithium batteries will lead the electrification transition, with electric forklifts expected to replace internal combustion models due to stricter environmental regulations [4][38]. - The market for electric forklifts is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.16% from 2025 to 2030, reaching a market size of $71.85 billion [29]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with lithium battery technology barriers and strong overseas channels, such as Hangcha Group, Anhui Heli, Zhongli Group, and Noli Group, which are expected to benefit from tightening environmental policies and the electrification wave [4][29].

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a turbulent adjustment with all major indices closing lower, including the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.01% to 4113.65, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.97% to 14155.63, and the ChiNext down by 1.79% to 3277.98 [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 694 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (up 1.74%), Building Materials (up 1.71%), Real Estate (up 1.55%), Transportation (up 1.25%), and Building Decoration (up 1.24%) [3][4] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Communication (down 3.23%), Defense & Military (down 2.87%), Computer (down 1.94%), Comprehensive (down 1.87%), and Electric Equipment (down 1.84%) [3][4] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices were Epoxy Propylene (up 5.78%), Glyphosate (up 3.45%), Acrylic Acid (up 2.64%), NMN Concept (up 1.95%), and Cultured Diamonds (up 1.93%) [3][4] - The lagging concept indices included Satellite Navigation (down 3.16%), Terahertz (down 3.15%), 6G Concept (down 2.98%), F5G Concept (down 2.97%), and Chengfei Concept (down 2.87%) [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the A-share market is in a short-term adjustment phase, with a potential shift from a "fund-driven" rapid growth model to a "performance-driven" slow bull market [6] - It is anticipated that macroeconomic improvements and a rebound in corporate earnings will drive mid-term upward trends, with the spring market expected to continue [6] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, technology growth, new energy, and dividend stocks [6] Policy Developments - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance and other departments announced five documents establishing a special guarantee plan through the National Financing Guarantee Fund, with a scale of 500 billion yuan to be implemented over two years [5] - The policy includes extending the personal consumption loan interest subsidy until the end of 2026, with a subsidy rate of 1% for credit card installment payments and 1.5% for fixed asset loans related to equipment upgrades [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.00, up by 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up by 0.09%. The ChiNext Index, however, fell by 0.70% to 3337.61 [2][4] - The market showed mixed performance with the three major indices fluctuating throughout the day, indicating a strong performance from the Shanghai index but a pullback in the ChiNext index [4][6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Basic Chemicals (up 2.70%), Petroleum and Petrochemicals (up 2.08%), and Electric Power Equipment (up 1.84%). Conversely, sectors such as Computers and Communications saw declines of -1.55% and -0.96%, respectively [3][4] - Notable concept indices that performed well included Flexible DC Transmission and Ultra-High Voltage, while concepts like WiFi6 and Xiaohongshu saw declines [3][4] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for 2025 was 1401879 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.0% year-on-year. Quarterly growth rates were 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [5] - The report indicates that the economic development goals for 2025 were successfully achieved, with supportive policies in place to foster economic stability and growth moving into 2026 [5] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 317.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. This indicates a potential cooling in market activity [6] - The report suggests that despite a recent slowdown in the upward momentum of the A-share market, the overall trend remains stable, with a focus on sectors showing high growth potential and improving fundamentals as the year progresses [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant divergence in global equity markets, with Asian markets leading while European and American markets face pressure. The domestic bond market remains stable, but the equity market shows signs of "rational cooling" [4][9] - All types of ETF funds recorded weekly average positive returns, with commodity ETFs, cross-border ETFs, and stock ETFs rising by 2.17%, 1.2%, and 0.92% respectively [9][10] - Despite positive returns, ETF funds experienced a net outflow of 157.198 billion yuan, with stock ETFs seeing a net outflow of 141.643 billion yuan, indicating institutional actions to cool the market [10][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that semiconductor, AI application, and electric grid equipment theme funds performed exceptionally well, with significant capital inflows into industry-themed ETFs, contrasting with outflows from broad indices like the CSI 300 [13][16] - The bond ETF market saw a weekly average increase of 0.87% for convertible bond ETFs, while credit bond ETFs faced over 10 billion yuan in net outflows, likely due to capital returning after year-end adjustments [17][20] - The analysis of ETF financing indicates an overall increase in leverage, with significant net buying in sectors like satellite industry and AI applications, while broad indices like CSI 300 saw net selling [21][22]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a high opening followed by a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4101.91, down 0.26% [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, down 0.18%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.41% to 4731.87 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electronics (up 2.64%), Automotive (up 1.69%), and Machinery Equipment (up 1.23%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Media (down 4.84%), Computing (down 2.23%), and Oil & Petrochemicals (down 1.80%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The best-performing concept indices were Storage Chips (up 4.07%), National Big Fund Holdings (up 4.07%), and Advanced Packaging (up 3.53%) [3] - The weakest concept indices included Sora Concept (down 4.67%), Kuaishou Concept (down 4.58%), and Short Drama Games (down 4.21%) [3] Future Outlook - The market showed active trading with a turnover returning to 3 trillion yuan, indicating a potential for continued support from incremental capital inflows [6] - Despite recent rapid increases and significant trading volume, caution is advised regarding potential market adjustment pressures [6] - Recommended sectors for investment include Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Non-ferrous Metals, TMT, and Coal [6] Policy and Economic Context - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the overall stability of the capital market while acknowledging complex challenges from internal and external risks [4] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to focus on enhancing consumer spending and service consumption in 2026, with specific strategies targeting key areas and markets [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the engineering machinery industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The demand for excavators remains high both domestically and internationally, with a notable year-on-year increase in sales [5]. - In December 2025, excavator sales reached 23,095 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.24% and a month-on-month growth of 15.32% [3]. - The domestic sales of excavators were 10,331 units, up 10.94% year-on-year, while exports totaled 12,764 units, marking a 26.92% year-on-year increase [3]. - The total excavator sales for 2025 amounted to 235,257 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.97% [3]. - Loader sales in December 2025 were 12,236 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.03% [4]. - The report highlights a structural recovery opportunity in the industry, despite a relatively low demand in the real estate sector [5]. - The Central Bank's announcement of a structural interest rate cut is expected to further boost domestic sales of engineering machinery [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing transition towards electric machinery, driven by stricter environmental regulations and technological advancements [6]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Data - December 2025 excavator sales were 23,095 units, with domestic sales at 10,331 units and exports at 12,764 units [3]. - The cumulative sales for 2025 reached 235,257 units, with domestic and export sales growing by 17.88% and 16.06% respectively [3]. Loader Sales Data - December 2025 loader sales were 12,236 units, with domestic sales at 5,291 units and exports at 6,945 units [4]. - The cumulative sales for 2025 were 128,067 units, with domestic sales increasing by 22.10% [4]. Market Trends and Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a clear upward trend in demand, supported by infrastructure investments and the issuance of special bonds [5]. - The report notes that the electric machinery market has significant growth potential, with increasing penetration rates [6][7].