Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after a strong rally, with mixed performance across the three major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.00% [1][2][8] - In the first half of the week, trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and margin trading balances rose significantly, with the Shanghai index reaching a ten-year high. However, market sentiment cooled in the latter half due to regulatory adjustments [1][2][8] Economic Indicators - Exports showed resilience at the end of 2025, with December exports in USD terms growing by 6.6% year-on-year, surpassing 350 billion USD, marking a historical high. Integrated circuits and automobiles contributed over 60% of this growth [9][10] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, the highest since March 2023, indicating an improving price environment. The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 1.9% year-on-year [9][10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The U.S. labor market data was mixed, with non-farm payrolls adding 50,000 jobs in December, below expectations. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, leading to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in January [10][11] - Inflation remained stable, with the December CPI at 2.7% year-on-year, supporting the Fed's accommodative policy stance. Market participants expect cumulative rate cuts of about 50 basis points in 2026 [10][11] Regulatory Adjustments - The adjustment of margin trading requirements by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges aims to cool overheated market sentiment rather than suppress it. The minimum margin requirement for new financing contracts has been raised from 80% to 100% [11][12] - The People's Bank of China has implemented structural interest rate cuts to support economic transformation, with a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various monetary policy tools [12][13] Sector Recommendations - Investment focus is recommended on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, power equipment, and basic chemicals [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - In December 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and batteries showed year-on-year growth but a month-on-month decline, primarily due to consumer hesitation during a subsidy policy gap [4]. - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 52.3% in December, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points month-on-month, while the annual penetration rate for 2025 was 47.9%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The battery production and sales in December 2025 saw significant growth, with production at 201.7 GWh (up 14.4% month-on-month, 62.1% year-on-year) and sales at 199.3 GWh (up 11.1% month-on-month, 57.5% year-on-year) [4]. - The demand for power batteries is expected to weaken in the short term due to the traditional off-season for the NEV market and adjustments in the vehicle purchase tax [4]. - The solid-state battery industry is progressing towards commercialization, which will create incremental demand for materials and equipment in the industry chain [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Market - December 2025 saw NEV production and sales of 171.8 million and 171 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12.3% and 7.2%, but month-on-month declines of 8.6% and 6.2% [4]. - For the entire year of 2025, NEV production and sales reached 16.626 million and 16.49 million units, with year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% [4]. Battery Production and Sales - In December 2025, the production of power and energy storage batteries was 201.7 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 62.1% [4]. - The sales of power batteries accounted for 72.1% of total sales, with a month-on-month increase of 7.3% and a year-on-year increase of 49.2% [4]. Export and Market Dynamics - Battery exports in December 2025 reached 32.6 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 49.2% [4]. - The report anticipates stable demand in the energy storage market and potential short-term support for demand due to adjustments in export tax policies [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery pace of the industry chain and prioritizing sectors benefiting from solid-state battery advancements, including core materials and equipment [4]. - Key stocks to watch include CATL, EVE Energy, and others listed in the report [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][46] Core Insights - The profitability of pig farming has shown signs of recovery, with self-breeding pig farming profits turning positive [30] - The industry has slightly underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.72% from January 5 to January 15, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 3.34 percentage points [14] - The report highlights the potential for price recovery in pig farming due to seasonal demand, and emphasizes the importance of capacity reduction in the breeding sector [46][48] Industry Performance Overview - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index has a current PB ratio of approximately 2.63, indicating a slight decline in valuation and positioning at about 59.2% of the historical average since 2006 [21] - Among the sub-sectors, animal health, fishery, agricultural product processing, and planting recorded positive returns, with increases of 8.52%, 4.59%, 1.77%, and 0.45% respectively, while feed and breeding sectors saw declines of 0.99% and 2.34% [17][18] Key Industry Data - The average price of external three-breed pigs fluctuated from 12.86 CNY/kg to 12.48 CNY/kg and then rebounded to 12.76 CNY/kg between January 2 and January 15, 2026 [22] - As of January 15, 2026, the average price of corn was 2363.82 CNY/ton and soybean meal was 3184 CNY/ton, both showing a recent increase [27] - The profit for self-breeding pig farming reached 7.39 CNY/head, while the profit for purchased pig farming was 48.35 CNY/head, indicating a shift from loss to profit [30] Company Insights - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Shengnong Development (002299), which are positioned well for potential growth in the sector [48][49] - The report notes that the domestic pet market has growth potential, with exports expected to maintain rapid growth, highlighting opportunities in leading domestic companies [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [51] Core Insights - The construction materials industry is experiencing a continuous release of "stabilizing real estate" signals, with further optimization of supply-side measures [2][42] - Cement production is strictly regulated according to approved capacity, with over 280 clinker production lines replaced by the end of 2025, resulting in an annual capacity reduction of 150 million tons [3][42] - The glass fiber industry is undergoing a structural recovery driven by "anti-involution" policies, with demand shifting from traditional construction materials to high-growth emerging fields [44] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a 3.37% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.75 percentage points [11] - The cement market is facing a decline in production and prices due to reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure [3][21] Cement - The average price of cement is currently 316 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB from the previous week, with regional variations in demand affecting prices [21] - The cement industry is expected to see demand supported by major infrastructure projects and urban renewal in 2026, despite ongoing price fluctuations [3][43] Glass and Glass Fiber - The average price of float glass in December 2025 was 1121.29 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.0% [44] - The glass fiber sector is benefiting from high demand in advanced applications such as AI servers and 5G communications, with a focus on upgrading production technologies [44] Consumer Building Materials - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a notice promoting green consumption, which is expected to drive growth in the renovation and urban renewal sectors [45] - Leading companies are enhancing their market share through brand advantages and service improvements, focusing on retail and overseas expansion [45] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, including Shangfeng Cement (000672), Tapai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) [43][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [31] Core Insights - The computer industry index has increased by 15.20% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.58 percentage points, ranking second among 31 first-level industries [2][10] - The SW computer sector's PE TTM (excluding negative values) is 62.71 times, which is at the 99.62nd percentile for the past five years and the 95.80th percentile for the past ten years [20] - The launch of the Qianwen App by Alibaba, which integrates with various Alibaba ecosystem services, marks a significant advancement in AI shopping capabilities, potentially transforming the industry landscape [28] Industry Performance Review - The SW computer sector has shown strong performance, with notable companies like Zhuoyi Information, Yanshan Technology, and Tongda Hai leading the gains with increases of 71.35%, 67.42%, and 64.15% respectively [16] - Conversely, companies such as Rongke Technology, *ST Lifan, and Haixia Innovation have experienced significant declines, with drops of 29.68%, 18.63%, and 13.37% respectively [17] Valuation Situation - As of January 15, 2026, the SW computer sector's PE TTM stands at 62.71 times, indicating a high valuation relative to historical standards [20] Industry News - The Qianwen App's integration with Alibaba's ecosystem allows for AI-driven shopping functionalities, which could lead to a shift in consumer behavior and competitive dynamics in the industry [22] - OpenAI's acquisition of the healthcare startup Torch for approximately $100 million highlights the growing intersection of AI and healthcare, with significant market potential [22] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the "AI + Manufacturing" initiative, aiming to promote the application of large models in the manufacturing sector by 2027 [22] Company Announcements - DaoTong Technology expects a net profit of 900 million to 930 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 40.42% to 45.10% year-on-year, driven by AI integration [25] - Yonyou Network anticipates a net loss of 1.3 to 1.39 billion yuan for 2025, although it expects to turn a profit in the fourth quarter [25] Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AI commercialization progress of leading internet companies like Alibaba and suggests focusing on strategic partnerships and companies benefiting from the demand for AI computing power [28]

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry is rated as "Standard Allocation" for the next six months, indicating expected performance in line with the market index within ±10% [59] Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is projected to see an installation of 16,000 units in 2025, with a high industry concentration where the top five companies hold over 70% market share [2][55] - The excavator sales are expected to grow by 16.97% year-on-year in 2025, supported by the commencement of major domestic projects and favorable overseas demand [2][55] - The mechanical equipment sector has shown a bi-weekly increase of 6.09%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.47 percentage points, ranking 10th among 31 sectors [3][12] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 15, 2026, the mechanical equipment sector has increased by 6.09% bi-weekly, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][12] - The general equipment sub-sector had the highest increase of 8.17%, followed by automation equipment at 8.01% and specialized equipment at 5.40% [19][21] Valuation Situation - The current PE ratio for the mechanical equipment sector is 35.17, with general equipment at 50.88 and automation equipment at 55.29 [23][24] - The current valuation is 20.36% higher than the one-year average for the mechanical equipment sector [23] Data Updates - The report highlights the sales performance of various machinery, including excavators and loaders, with significant year-on-year growth rates [52][53] Industry News - The report discusses the advancements in humanoid robots and the establishment of partnerships for core component testing and quality improvement [52][55] - It also notes the expected increase in excavator sales and the overall positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector [2][55] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Huichuan Technology, Green Harmonic, Sany Heavy Industry, and Hengli Hydraulic due to their strong market positions and growth potential [56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [57]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Kweichow Moutai has released a market-oriented operation plan, with a focus on inventory preparation for the Spring Festival. The white liquor sector is experiencing a weak recovery in demand, prompting Moutai to implement various measures to adapt to market and consumer trends [4][52]. - The SW food and beverage industry index rose by 0.64% from January 2 to January 15, 2026, but underperformed the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.98 percentage points [11][12]. - Approximately 76% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable gainers including Ziyuan Food (+33.73%) and Haoxiangni (+21.90%) [14]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the industry is approximately 20.47 times, which is below the five-year average of 31 times, indicating a potentially undervalued sector [15][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 0.64% from January 2 to January 15, 2026, ranking 28th among Shenwan's primary industries [11]. - Most sub-sectors also lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with the pre-processed food sector showing the highest increase of 4.91%, while the dairy sector experienced the largest decline of 3.70% [13]. Industry Data Tracking - **Liquor Sector**: The price of Feitian Moutai decreased to 1520 RMB per bottle, down 20 RMB from January 1, while the prices of other brands remained stable [21]. - **Condiment Sector**: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar increased slightly, while glass prices saw a decrease [24]. - **Beer Sector**: The price of aluminum increased significantly, while the price of corrugated paper decreased [31]. - **Dairy Sector**: The average price of fresh milk was 3.02 RMB per kilogram, showing a slight decrease [39]. - **Meat Sector**: The average wholesale price of pork rose to 18.00 RMB per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month increase [41]. Important News - The report notes a 3.4% year-on-year decline in retail sales of tobacco and alcohol in November 2025, indicating potential challenges in consumer demand [43]. - A slight decrease in the national white liquor price index was reported for December, suggesting price stabilization in the market [44]. Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai announced a share repurchase plan and a market-oriented operation strategy aimed at adapting to market changes [50]. - Eastroc Beverage projected a significant increase in annual net profit for 2025, indicating strong performance in the soft drink sector [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Insights - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the State Grid Corporation of China is expected to invest 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, to drive high-quality development of the new power system supply chain [39][43] - The report highlights the focus on green transformation and the establishment of a new energy system, aiming for a 25% share of non-fossil energy consumption and 35% of electricity in final energy consumption by 2025 [39][43] - The electric equipment sector has shown strong performance, with the wind power equipment sector rising by 17.61% and the grid equipment sector by 11.91% in the last two weeks [16][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 15, 2026, the electric equipment industry has increased by 5.06%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.43 percentage points, ranking 12th among 31 industries [11] - The wind power equipment sector has seen a significant increase of 17.61%, while the battery sector has only increased by 0.96% [16][17] Valuation and Industry Data - The electric equipment sector's PE (TTM) is 34.83 times, with sub-sectors like electric motors at 61.47 times and photovoltaic equipment at 31.57 times [23][24] - The report provides a detailed valuation comparison, indicating that the current valuation is above the one-year average for most sub-sectors [24] Industry News - The report discusses the expected investment by the State Grid Corporation and its implications for the electric equipment industry, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements and leading companies in the sector [39][43] - It also mentions the ongoing trends in the photovoltaic market, including price stability and the cautious outlook from upstream and downstream companies [39] Company Announcements - The report includes various company announcements, such as share reductions by major stakeholders and financial forecasts indicating potential losses for some companies [42]

有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/02-2026/01/15） 供需向好叠加宏观情绪转暖，有色金属集体上涨 2026 年 1 月 16 日 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523120001 行情回顾。截至2026年1月15日，申万有色金属行业近两周上涨13.03%，跑赢 沪深300指数10.40个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第3名。截至2026年1月 15日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，小金属板块上涨16.67%，贵金属板块 上涨16.53%，工业金属板块上涨12.56%，能源金属板块上涨10.97%，金属新 材料板块上涨8.10%。 周 报 有色金属行业重要新闻及观点 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、行业下游需求不及预期风险、原材料价格波 动风险、在建项目进程不及预期、美联储再度施行紧缩性货币政策、行业内 部竞争加剧等风险。 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgz ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The basic chemical index rose by 6.5% in the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.9 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 industries [12][28]. - All sub-sectors of the basic chemical index experienced gains, with the agricultural chemicals sector up 9.4%, chemical raw materials up 8.1%, and rubber up 7.2% [13][28]. - Among the 408 listed companies in the basic chemical index, 340 saw their stock prices increase, with notable gains from Qicai Chemical (59.3%), Bofei Electric (56.7%), and Chenghe Technology (44.1%) [15][28]. - Key industry news includes the launch of BASF's ethylene joint unit in Zhanjiang, which is the world's first to use 100% renewable energy for its main compressor [20][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 15, the basic chemical index has increased by 6.5% year-to-date, maintaining its position as the 9th best-performing sector [12][28]. - The sub-sectors have shown consistent growth, with agricultural chemicals leading the way [13][28]. Important Company Announcements - Recent announcements include various companies' plans for capital increases and asset acquisitions, indicating active corporate strategies within the sector [21][28]. Key Industry News - The Shandong Provincial Government has released a plan aiming for a 5% increase in the value added of the petrochemical industry by 2026, emphasizing stability and high-end chemical production [28]. - The introduction of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants starting in 2024 is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the refrigerant market [28]. Industry Weekly Perspective - The report highlights the importance of innovation and structural optimization in the basic chemical sector, particularly in Shandong, a major chemical province [28]. - The profitability of refrigerant companies has significantly increased due to rising prices, with notable performance from companies like Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. [28][29].