Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, citing its leadership in the internet and gaming sectors, and its potential to benefit from the continued growth of the gaming industry [1][95] Core Views - Tencent is China's largest social platform company, with a massive user base that provides a solid foundation for its various businesses As of Q2 2024, QQ has 571 million monthly active users (MAUs), while WeChat has 1 371 billion MAUs [1] - Tencent is a leader in China's gaming industry, with a 48 2% market share in 2023 The company is expected to benefit from the growth of the mobile gaming industry, which is projected to grow at 4 65%, 3 91%, and 3 30% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [1] - Video accounts are a key growth driver for Tencent's advertising business In Q2 2024, the company's online advertising revenue grew 19% YoY to RMB 29 9 billion, driven by video accounts and long-form video content [1] - Tencent is one of the duopolies in China's payment industry, with WeChat Pay and Alipay accounting for over 94% of the market share in Q3 2023 The third-party personal payment market is expected to grow at 10 8%, 9 7%, and 8 9% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [1] Business Segments Social and Communication - QQ and WeChat are Tencent's core social tools As of Q2 2024, QQ has 571 million MAUs, while WeChat has 1 371 billion MAUs [1][51] - Video accounts are a strategic growth area for Tencent, with significant user engagement and advertising revenue growth In 2023, video account advertising revenue exceeded RMB 3 billion in Q2, and the annual GMV surpassed RMB 100 billion [55][56] Gaming - Tencent is the leader in China's gaming industry, with a 48 2% market share in 2023 The company has over 170 self-developed and licensed games, including popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile" [1][65] - The mini-game market is growing rapidly, with 750 million active users in February 2024, accounting for 80 3% of the total traffic Tencent's mini-game revenue grew over 30% YoY in H1 2024 [1][65] Online Advertising - Tencent's online advertising revenue grew 22 65% YoY in H1 2024, driven by video accounts and long-form video content The company expects the online advertising business to grow at 19%, 21%, and 23% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [88][90] FinTech and Business Services - Tencent's FinTech and Business Services segment is benefiting from the growth of the third-party payment and cloud services markets The third-party personal payment market is expected to grow at 10 8%, 9 7%, and 8 9% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [76][77] - Tencent Cloud holds a 16% market share in China's cloud infrastructure services market in Q2 2024 The company is leveraging its AI capabilities, such as the Hunyuan large model, to attract more customers [81][82] Financial Performance and Valuation - Tencent's revenue grew 9 82% YoY in 2023 to RMB 609 015 billion, with a net profit of RMB 115 216 billion The company expects revenue to grow at 8 56%, 9 24%, and 10 13% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit growing at 47 86%, 12 22%, and 13 13% respectively [2][95] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB 18 38, RMB 20 63, and RMB 23 34 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE ratio of 20 16x, 17 96x, and 15 88x based on the closing price of HKD 402 80 on November 27, 2024 [95] Industry Outlook - China's mobile gaming industry is expected to grow at 4 65%, 3 91%, and 3 30% from 2024 to 2026, driven by the recovery of the economy and the normalization of game license approvals [68] - The online advertising market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2029, with video accounts playing a significant role in driving Tencent's advertising revenue growth [73][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry [5] Core Insights - The smart driving industry is entering a rapid development phase, with the end-to-end approach expected to become the mainstream route [10][12] - The global and China autonomous driving market sizes are projected to grow from approximately $10 billion and $2 billion in 2022 to $1.75 trillion and $639 billion by 2030, with CAGRs of 79.75% and 85.62% respectively [27][28] Summary by Sections 1. Clear Trends in Automotive Intelligence and Rapid Development of Smart Driving - Smart driving enhances safety and efficiency, with the potential for rapid growth [21] - High-level autonomous driving is entering a rapid development phase, with significant market penetration expected by 2030 [32] - Policy support is increasing, guiding the industry towards high-quality development [47] 2. Transition to "End-to-End" Smart Driving and the Importance of Data - The importance of software in smart driving systems is continuously increasing [49] - The transition from modular to end-to-end architectures addresses limitations of traditional approaches [60] - The end-to-end approach requires high-quality and large-scale data, with Tesla inputting 10 million human driving videos for training [77] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on two main lines: smart driving solution providers and V2X participants, with specific companies recommended for investment [10][80]

宏观研究/宏观点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 点 评 库存周期正待重启 ——11 月 PMI 与 10 月企业利润分析 ◼ 核心观点 一、工业企业利润累计同比降幅继续扩大，产成品库存增速连续下行， 资产增速继续下降，负债增速再次回落；同期 PPI 降速也在连续扩大。 1.工业企业利润 10 月当月同比降幅收窄但仍在负值区间，1-10 月累计 同比降幅扩大。1-10 月，工业企业营业收入累计同比 1.9 %（前值 2.1 %），利润总额累计同比-4.3 %（前值-3.5 %）。10 月当月工业企业 利润同比-10.0 %（前值-27.1 %），降幅虽然收窄但连续第 3 个月为负。 2.工业产成品库存增速连续回落，PPI 降幅连续扩大。1-10 月，工业 企业产成品库存累计同比 3.9 %（前值 4.6 %），连续第 3 个月回落； 此前工业产成品库存增速持续上升的趋势已经在 7 月终结。与此同时， 10 月 PPI 同比-2.9 %（前值-2.8 %），连续 3 个月降幅扩大，也是 PPI 同比增速第 25 个月为负值。 3.工业企业资产增速继续下降，负债增速再次回落。1-10 月工业企业 ...

Industry Overview - The global wind power market is expected to grow from 116.6GW in 2023 to 182GW by 2028, with a CAGR of 9.31%. Onshore wind installations are projected to increase from 105.8GW to 145GW, while offshore wind installations are expected to surge from 10.8GW to 37GW, with a CAGR of 27.93% [16] - The Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) is a key growth area, with onshore wind installations expected to grow from 6.5GW in 2023 to 14.4GW by 2028, driven by India and other emerging markets [16] - Africa and the Middle East are also significant growth markets, with onshore wind installations projected to grow at a CAGR of 41.47% and 43.10%, respectively, from 2023 to 2028 [19] - In China, wind power installations reached 72.19GW for onshore and 7.18GW for offshore in 2023, with a CAGR of 30.04% and 32.94%, respectively, from 2018 to 2023 [27] Market Trends - Wind turbine manufacturers are increasingly focusing on larger turbines to reduce costs and improve efficiency. In 2023, the average capacity of newly installed wind turbines in China was 5.60MW, with offshore turbines averaging 9.60MW and onshore turbines averaging 5.37MW [36] - The wind turbine industry in China is highly concentrated, with the top five manufacturers (Goldwind, Envision, Windey, Mingyang, and Sany) accounting for 73.8% of the market share in 2023, up from 64.7% in 2020 [44] - Domestic wind turbine prices in China have stabilized, with onshore turbine prices (including towers) rising from an average of 1,556 yuan/kW in April 2024 to 1,700-1,900 yuan/kW by the end of 2024 [50] Export Opportunities - Chinese wind turbine manufacturers are expanding their presence in international markets, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In 2023, China exported 3.67GW of wind turbines, a 60.2% increase year-on-year, with onshore turbines accounting for the majority of exports [4] - Goldwind, a leading Chinese wind turbine manufacturer, had 5.54GW of overseas orders as of September 2024, with significant projects in India and other emerging markets [4] - Sany Renewable Energy secured a major order of over 1GW in India in October 2024, marking a significant breakthrough in its overseas business [4] Key Companies - **Goldwind**: The company reported revenue of 35.84 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, up 22.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, up 42.15%. Goldwind's overseas revenue accounted for 23.66% of total revenue in H1 2024, with cumulative overseas installations reaching 8.05GW [77][88] - **Sany Renewable Energy**: The company reported revenue of 9.07 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, up 21.06% year-on-year, but net profit declined by 33.55% due to delays in wind farm construction. Sany secured a 1.32GW order in India in October 2024, marking a significant step in its global expansion [90][95] - **Windey**: The company reported revenue of 13.93 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, up 24.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of 267 million yuan, up 6.25%. Windey's order backlog reached 34.20GW as of June 2024, with 59.20% of orders for turbines with capacities of 6MW or higher [99][106] - **Mingyang Smart Energy**: The company reported revenue of 20.24 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, down 4.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 809 million yuan, down 34.58%. Mingyang's order backlog reached 45.36GW as of June 2024, with a 28.36% increase in new orders year-on-year [107][116] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading wind turbine manufacturers with stable profitability and strong export potential, such as Goldwind, Sany Renewable Energy, Windey, and Mingyang Smart Energy [5][116]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.53 yuan [5] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 is under short-term pressure, with revenue of 6.463 billion yuan, down 1.66% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 842 million yuan, down 18.41% YoY [2] - The cardiovascular business remains stable, with revenue of 4.24 billion yuan, up 3.54% YoY, while the anti-tumor and liver disease treatment businesses grew by 22.68% and 12.64% respectively [2] - The company's core products, such as Compound Danshen Dripping Pills, are expected to stabilize after the impact of centralized procurement policies in 2023 [2] - Huaren Sanniu's potential takeover is seen as a positive development, with expectations of enhanced management, marketing, and policy resources [2] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin, net profit margin, and non-GAAP net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 66.8%, 13.0%, and 15.2%, respectively, down 0.05, 2.68, and 0.84 percentage points YoY [2] - For Q3 2024, the gross margin, net profit margin, and non-GAAP net profit margin were 65.4%, 8.6%, and 11.8%, down 2.78, 6.32, and 4.8 percentage points YoY [2] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 8.615 billion yuan, 8.938 billion yuan, and 9.537 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.023 billion yuan, 1.176 billion yuan, and 1.363 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The current PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 21.2X, 18.5X, and 15.9X [3] Business Segments - Cardiovascular business: Revenue of 4.24 billion yuan, up 3.54% YoY [2] - Anti-tumor business: Revenue of 166 million yuan, up 22.68% YoY [2] - Liver disease treatment: Revenue of 532 million yuan, up 12.64% YoY [2] - Cold and fever treatment: Revenue of 239 million yuan, down 36.42% YoY, mainly due to declining sales of Huoxiang Zhengqi Dripping Pills and Chuanxinlian Nei Zhi Dripping Pills [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7%, with net profit attributable to the parent company growing at a CAGR of 15.9% [3] - The EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.69 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, respectively [3] - The ROE for 2024-2026 is expected to be 8.0%, 8.8%, and 9.7%, respectively [4] Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry, particularly the cardiovascular and anti-tumor segments, shows strong growth potential, supported by the company's core products and Huaren Sanniu's potential takeover [2][3]

有色金属 行业研究/行业周报 俄乌战事升级黄金价格反弹，强美元压制商品价格 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——有色行业周报（2024.11.18-2024.11.22） 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 ◼ 核心要点 1、贵金属 俄乌战事持续升级，黄金价格反弹，但是市场对于美联储 12 月降息预期的 变化，将限制黄金反弹空间。据澎湃新闻，本周乌克兰首次使用美英远程导 弹袭击俄罗斯本土，俄乌战事持续升级激发市场的避险需求，增持黄金。本 周 COMEX 黄金非商业多头持仓占比环比上周+2.50pct，COMEX 黄金反 弹，环比+5.87%，报收 2718.20 美元/盎司。但是市场对于美联储 12 月暂停 降息的预期在升温，根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的 FedWatch 工具，目前 市场预期暂停降息的可能性为 44%，而上周这一概率为 17%；此外美元指数 本周走强，限制黄金的进一步上涨。从中长期维度看，我们仍维持原有观点 不变，即全球央行开启降息周期，不断上升的美国财政赤字及美债规模可能 会成为弱化美元的主因，黄金作为天然货币和避险资产的地位难以替代，我 们仍然看好黄金中长期的配置价值。 2、工业金属 自特朗普胜 ...

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a slight decrease in the margin balance of margin trading in the A-share market, with overall trading activity declining. The PE valuation percentiles of major indices have generally decreased, with the CSI 500 leading the decline. The PE valuation percentiles of major styles have also fallen, particularly in the cyclical style, while the media sector has seen a significant increase in valuation percentiles [4][5][6]. Group 2 - The stock-bond yield spread has decreased, indicating a relatively high investment cost-effectiveness in equity investments. As of November 27, 2024, the dividend yield of the CSI 300 is 3.00%, while the 10-year government bond yield is 2.08%, resulting in a stock-bond yield of -0.92%, which is below the average since 2024 [14][17]. - The average margin balance for the week of November 21-27 was approximately 1.84 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous week. The proportion of financing purchases in total A-share trading volume also decreased, averaging 9.65%, down 0.54 percentage points from the previous week [17][21]. - Trading activity has generally declined, with the CSI 300 experiencing the largest drop in trading volume, down 23.37% week-on-week. The turnover rates of major indices have also decreased, with the ChiNext index seeing the largest decline of 0.59 percentage points [21][22]. Group 3 - The PE valuation percentiles of major indices have generally declined, with the CSI 500 leading the drop at 4.7 percentage points. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both fell by 2.8 percentage points [25][31]. - All major styles have seen a decline in PE valuation percentiles, with the cyclical style experiencing the largest drop of 3.4 percentage points. The growth style also saw a decrease of 2.4 percentage points [31][32]. - Most industry PE valuation percentiles have decreased, with the construction sector leading the decline at 6.8 percentage points. In contrast, the media sector saw an increase of 3.5 percentage points [41][43].

策略研究/策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 略 研 究 策 略 周 报 美元指数延续强势，新发股票型基金份额创新高 ——流动性 11 月第 2 期 ◼ 核心观点 上周（11.11-11.15）2 年期、10 年期国债收益率均下行；美国 10 年国 债收益率抬升，美元指数继续上行，中美 10 年国债利差边际走阔；上 周融资买入额下降，南下累计净流入持续走高。 ◼ 宏观流动性 国内：上周（11.11-11.15），2 年期、10 年期国债收益率均下行，10 年 期与 2 年期国债利差上升。上周央行公开市场净投放 1871 亿元，11 月 MLF 净回笼量为 14500 亿元。 国外：上周（11.11-11.15）10 年期美债收益率抬升，美元指数继续上 行，中美 10 年期国债利差边际扩大。上周 10 年期美债收益率抬升至 4.43%，美元指数延续强势至 106.68。截至 11 月 15 日，中美 10 年期 国债利差小幅扩大至-2.34%。 ◼ 市场流动性 公募基金：2024 年 11 月新成立 52 只基金，其中 29 只为股票型基金。 截至 11 月 15 日，2024 年 1-11 月新成立基金 9 ...