商贸零售 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 双十一首周战报，多品牌成交破亿 ——行业周报（20241021-1025） 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 ◼ 行情回顾 本周，沪深 300 上涨 0.79%，商贸零售板块整体上涨 5.29%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.50pct，涨跌幅在申万Ⅰ级 31 个行业中排第 6 位。四大子板块皆呈上涨态势，贸 易Ⅱ、一般零售、专业连锁Ⅱ、互联网电商分别上涨 14.46%、5.46%、6.38%和 2.21%。 ◼ 核心观点 电商：双十一消费侧更关注质价比。据每日经济新闻双 11 消费问卷观察，消费者 倾向于摒弃冲动消费转向理性购买，从追求低价转变为注重品质，逐渐回归"产 品、价格和服务"的消费初心。因此，24 年双 11 除了提供更具性价比的产品外， 新创意、新产品及体验更优的新服务，成为各大电商平台比拼的重点。 天猫：美妆、服饰、家电板块的头部品牌表现突出。24 年天猫双 11 第一阶段(10/21- 10/24)品牌成交排行榜发布，品牌商品开局成绩亮眼。截至 10/24，284 个品牌成 交破亿，各品牌迎来年度高速成长机会。从品类看，美妆、服饰、家电皆迎来 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported an unaudited loss attributable to owners of approximately 1.492 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a total loss of about 2.971 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - Cash costs continue to decline, with Q3 2024 cash costs down 12.32% from Q1 2024 and 5.71% from Q2 2024, driven by increased production capacity utilization [2]. - The company achieved a 33% reduction in carbon footprint at its Leshan base, setting a new global industry record, with carbon emissions of only 24.913 kg CO2 equivalent per kg of granular silicon [3]. - The company plans to launch its SiRo carbon chain components, which will utilize its granular silicon as raw material, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [3]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.057 billion yuan, 30.523 billion yuan, and 42.118 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -49%, +79%, and +38% [4]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is -2.921 billion yuan, 1.544 billion yuan, and 4.326 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -216%, +153%, and +180% [4]. - The stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30 for 2025 and 11 for 2026, indicating potential for recovery in profitability as silicon prices stabilize [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - NAND market prices show slight fluctuations, with demand for NAND modules continuing to rise. The total shipment growth rate for NAND bits reached 30% year-on-year, marking a historical high for the same period [2][9] - DRAM prices have slightly decreased, with a focus on developing vertical transistor DRAM technology to reduce power consumption and leakage current. The average price fluctuation for DRAM products ranged from -2.87% to 2.90% [2][11] - Samsung is accelerating the development of HBM4, with wafer production expected to start in Q4 2024 and testing products anticipated in early 2025. The market is currently in a downward trend, with most storage market prices declining [2][10] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Price Tracking of Storage Chips - NAND prices fluctuated between -0.87% and 1.12%, with an average change of 0.15%. The total shipment growth rate for NAND bits reached 30% year-on-year [2][9] - DRAM prices showed an average decline of -0.76%, with 15 products decreasing in price and only one showing an increase [2] 2. Industry News - The storage market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices for SSDs and memory modules decreasing due to weak demand and excess supply. NAND Flash Wafer prices have decreased, with 1Tb QLC priced at $5.20, 1Tb TLC at $6.20, and 512Gb TLC at $3.30 [9] - Samsung is set to begin HBM4 wafer production in Q4 2024, aiming to regain market share lost in HBM3 and HBM3E [10] 3. Company Dynamics - Companies like Nanya Technology and Kioxia are collaborating to develop new DRAM technologies focused on energy efficiency. Additionally, companies are adjusting production rates in response to market conditions [11][12] - Peking Junzheng is actively developing new products based on customer needs and market strategies [13] 4. Company Announcements - Various companies have reported their quarterly earnings, with some showing significant changes in revenue and net profit compared to previous periods [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jinpan Technology is "Buy" [6][9][17] Core Views - Jinpan Technology reported a revenue of approximately 4.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 21% [4] - The company has seen an increase in the proportion of foreign sales, with foreign sales accounting for about 29% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2024. Domestic data center orders grew by approximately 102% year-on-year [5] - The company maintains a robust operational management with improved profitability quality, as evidenced by a gross margin of approximately 25.5% in Q3 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company completed a share buyback of approximately 2.6 million shares, accounting for 0.57% of the total share capital, with an average buyback price of 37.68 yuan per share [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Jinpan Technology achieved a revenue of approximately 4.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 400 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21% [4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was approximately 25.5%, and the net profit margin was about 9.6%, both showing improvements compared to previous periods [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Jinpan Technology from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 9.0 billion yuan, 11.9 billion yuan, and 14.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 780 million yuan, 1.1 billion yuan, and 1.4 billion yuan [6] - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 21, 15, and 12 times respectively [6] Market Position and Strategy - Jinpan Technology is positioned to benefit from the development of the transformer and energy storage sectors, driven by the current challenges in renewable energy consumption [6] - The company is pursuing a global strategy with rapid growth in overseas business, which is expected to contribute positively to future revenue [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][20][11] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of approximately 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 67.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 23.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 57.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 3.6% [4] - Major clients such as Seres, Li Auto, and Geely have shown strong production demand, with respective production volumes of approximately 134,000, 154,000, and 667,000 vehicles, representing year-on-year increases of approximately 205%, 48%, and 25% [5] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was approximately 24.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.7 percentage points [6] - The company is transitioning from a Tier 1 supplier to a complete vehicle manufacturer, enhancing the value per vehicle and increasing production capacity with a new investment of 1.5 billion yuan in a Changzhou base [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.94 billion yuan, 5.28 billion yuan, and 6.85 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 52%, 34%, and 30% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same years are 480 million yuan, 666 million yuan, and 908 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 56%, 38%, and 36% respectively [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][15]. Core Views - The company has shown a robust revenue performance in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 26.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 3.49% [2]. - The company is a pioneer in the magnesium alloy die-casting sector, focusing on applications in automotive lightweighting, electrification, and intelligence, with simultaneous domestic and international development [2]. - The company has received new product designations for magnesium alloy components in the electric vehicle sector, expected to start mass production in June 2025, with projected sales of approximately 170 million RMB from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of approximately 288 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 13.54%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 56 million RMB, a decrease of about 3.72% year-on-year [1]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was approximately 33.33%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.99 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was approximately 18.28%, down 5.19 percentage points year-on-year and 0.82 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. Future Growth Projections - The company is expected to benefit from the automotive lightweighting trend, with revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 410 million, 490 million, and 580 million RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of approximately 17.8%, 18.1%, and 18.3% [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be approximately 80 million, 100 million, and 110 million RMB for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of about 4.4%, 15.6%, and 16.7% [5][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [3][20]. Core Viewpoints - Intel announced an investment of over $28 billion to build two new chip factories in Licking County, Ohio, as part of its IDM 2.0 strategy to expand its foundry business and meet the surging demand for advanced semiconductors [2][12]. - NVIDIA plans to increase its computing power in India by nearly 20 times and will continue to invest in computing infrastructure to tap into the growing market [2][12]. - OpenAI is expected to launch a new model called "Orion" in December, which is projected to be over 100 times more powerful than GPT-4 [2][12]. - Tesla's Q3 2024 results showed revenue of $25.182 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.85%, with operating profit of $2.772 billion, up 57.14%, and net profit of $2.167 billion, up 16.95%. The company achieved a record low cost of goods sold (COGS) per vehicle at approximately $35,100 [2][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Global major indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones down 2.68% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.79% during the week of October 21-25, 2024 [6][8]. Global AI Industry Chain Highlights - Key companies in the AI industry chain are experiencing significant developments, including performance disclosures and strategic investments [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks to focus on include AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, Haiguang Information, and Cambrian [3][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent IPOs of autonomous driving companies, such as Horizon and WeRide, which are expected to benefit the industry chain [2] - Horizon is recognized as a leading player in the autonomous driving sector, holding significant market shares in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [2] - WeRide is noted for being the first company globally to offer paid L4 autonomous taxi services and has a strong operational history [2] - The report anticipates that the commercialization of autonomous taxis will accelerate, with significant market growth projected for the coming years [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent IPO of Horizon, which raised approximately 5.407 billion HKD, marking it as the largest tech IPO in Hong Kong this year [2] - Horizon's market shares in the domestic OEM sector are 21.3% and 35.9% for 2023 and the first half of 2024, respectively [2] - WeRide has obtained autonomous driving licenses in multiple countries and operates in 30 cities globally [2] Market Potential - The global market for Robotaxi services is projected to reach 290 million USD by 2025 and 66.6 billion USD by 2030, with China expected to be the largest market [2] - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of Horizon's ADAS and AD solutions, which saw a fourfold increase in installation volume from 2022 to 2023 [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huace Navigation and Zhonghaidah, as the commercialization of autonomous driving is expected to gain momentum [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The government is highly focused on the development of the low-altitude economy, with a projected market size of 10,644.6 billion yuan by 2026 [3] - The integration of communication and perception technology is a key step in ensuring low-altitude safety and extending communication network capabilities [3] - The implementation of 5G/5G-A based low-altitude communication and perception network technology is already underway, with significant advancements in real-time data transmission and monitoring for drones [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to explore the establishment of a low-altitude economic network, enhancing communication efficiency and reliability for low-altitude aircraft [2] - Major information communication companies are actively participating in the low-altitude economy, with ongoing pilot projects for 5G/5G-A technologies [2] Market Potential - The low-altitude economy is expected to become a new growth driver, supported by a comprehensive implementation plan from multiple government departments [3] - The integration of communication and perception technology is crucial for the development of various applications in the low-altitude economy [3] Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on operators such as China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, as well as communication equipment companies like ZTE and Tongyu Communication [4]