社交与互动媒体 昆仑万维（300418.SZ） 买入-A(维持) 收入端较快增长，利润端短期承压 2025 年 5 月 19 日 公司研究/公司快报 | 会计年度 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4,915 | 5,662 | 6,541 | 7,198 | 7,788 | | YoY(%) | 3.8 | 15.2 | 15.5 | 10.0 | 8.2 | | 净利润(百万元) | 1,258 | -1,595 | -326 | 221 | 396 | | YoY(%) | 9.2 | -226.7 | 79.6 | 167.9 | 79.2 | | 毛利率(%) | 78.8 | 73.6 | 78.0 | 78.2 | 78.4 | | EPS(摊薄/元) | 1.02 | -1.30 | -0.26 | 0.18 | 0.32 | | ROE(%) | 8.6 | -11.5 | -2.4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | | P/E(倍) | 30. ...

研究早观点 2025 年 5 月 19 日 星期一 市场走势 【山证煤炭】永泰能源（600157.SH）年报&一季报点评：-煤、电量增 价减影响业绩，海则滩项目稳步推进 【山证纺服】周大生 2024 年报及 2025Q1 季报点评-2024 年电商渠道实现 双位数增长，2025Q1 毛利率明显改善 国内市场主要指数 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 资料来源：最闻 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,367.46 | -0.40 | | 深证成指 | | 10,179.60 | -0.07 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,889.09 | -0.46 | | 中小板指 | | 6,337.62 | 0.25 | | 创业板指 | | 2,039.45 | -0.19 | | 科创 | 50 | 995.24 | -0.57 | ...

公司近一年市场表现 | 市场数据：2025 年 月 | 日 | | 5 | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | 1.36 | | | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | 2.14/1.01 | | | | 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 | | 222.18/222.18 | | | | 股）： | | | | | | 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： | | 302.16 | | | | 总市值（亿元）： | | 302.16 | | | | 年 基础数据：2025 | 月 3 | 日 31 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益(元)： | | | 0.00 | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | | | 0.00 | | 每股净资产(元)： | | | 2.35 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | | | 0.22 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguij ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in e-commerce channels in 2024, with a significant improvement in gross margin in Q1 2025 [1] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, the company is projected to benefit from improved gross margins in Q1 2025, leading to a smaller decline in performance compared to revenue [10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.891 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%, and a net profit of 1.010 billion yuan, down 23.25% [2][4] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.673 billion yuan, a decline of 47.28%, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.12% [2][4] - The gross margin for 2024 improved by 2.7 percentage points to 20.80%, and for Q1 2025, it increased by 10.64 percentage points to 26.21% [6] Channel Performance Summary - In 2024, the online channel revenue grew by 11.42% to 2.795 billion yuan, while the franchise channel revenue fell by 23.26% to 9.187 billion yuan [5] - The self-operated offline channel achieved revenue of 1.744 billion yuan, a growth of 7.8% [5] Future Earnings Projections - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.02, 1.11, and 1.22 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.2, 12.1, and 11.0 times [10][12]

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,380.82, down 0.68% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.62%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.92% [4] Industry Commentary - The home appliance industry is optimistic about air conditioner production for May, with domestic sales expected to perform better than exports due to the upcoming summer season and government incentives for replacing old appliances [7] - The export growth rate for home appliances fell in April, attributed to competitive pressures in overseas markets and the impact of US-China tariff policies [7] - Raw material costs are decreasing, which is expected to enhance profitability for manufacturers [7] - Shipping costs for exports are currently low, which may lead to fluctuations in export pricing as companies attempt to mitigate risks associated with shipping [7] Company Analysis - **Folate (601865.SH)**: The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.8%, but managed to turn a profit with a net profit of 110 million yuan, a significant improvement from the previous quarter [11] - **Jujiao Co., Ltd. (301283.SZ)**: The company is shifting towards high-margin markets, showing significant recovery in profitability [13] - **Green Harmonic (688017.SH)**: The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 98 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, and achieved profitability after a challenging previous year [17] - **Langxin Group (300682.SZ)**: The company is transitioning to an AI-driven energy operation model, with a focus on energy market transactions and significant growth in its energy internet business [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The home appliance sector is recommended for investment due to ongoing government incentives and a favorable production outlook, with specific companies like Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Haier Smart Home highlighted as potential investments [7] - In the optical communication sector, companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yisheng are recommended due to strong growth prospects driven by demand from hyperscale cloud providers [8] - For the energy sector, Langxin Group is positioned well for growth in AI-driven energy solutions, with expected significant increases in transaction volumes in the coming years [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Leading the Market" with an expected growth exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [3][40]. Core Insights - The domestic market for white goods is performing better than exports, with optimistic production forecasts for air conditioners from May to July, while refrigerator and washing machine production remains stable. The upcoming summer season is expected to boost air conditioner sales due to trade-in subsidies [3][11]. - The export growth rate for home appliances declined in April, influenced by a competitive overseas market and fluctuating tariff policies between China and the U.S. However, strong growth in emerging markets is alleviating some pressure from North America [3][21]. - Raw material costs are decreasing, which is expected to enhance profitability. Prices for rebar and ethylene are at low levels, and copper prices are stable, reducing cost pressures on the industry [4][27]. - Shipping costs are currently low, which may benefit home appliance companies by lowering transportation expenses. Recent trade talks have led to a temporary suspension of tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially causing fluctuations in shipping prices [4][31]. Summary by Sections White Goods Production - Air conditioner production is optimistic, with May production at 23.3 million units and growth rates of 9.9%, 14.1%, and 14.3% for the following months. Refrigerator production is stabilizing, while washing machine production is in a seasonal downturn [11][14][17]. Home Appliance Exports - In April, the export value of home appliances was $8.65 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2.89%, while the export volume was 385 million units, a 1.2% increase. The decline in value is attributed to intense market competition and pricing strategies [21][24]. Raw Materials - As of May 14, 2025, the LME copper price was $9,649.5 per ton, with rebar at 3,118 yuan per ton and ethylene at $781 per ton, all indicating a favorable cost environment for the industry [27][28]. Shipping Costs - The shipping cost indices for various routes are at low levels, which is beneficial for export-oriented home appliance companies. The recent trade agreement has led to a temporary suspension of tariffs, which may influence shipping dynamics [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1. Configuration type focusing on white goods with high dividend yields and limited valuation downside, including companies like Midea Group and Gree Electric. 2. Turning point type targeting small appliances and kitchen appliances expected to recover due to low baselines and stimulus policies. 3. Growth potential in black goods with technological upgrades and competitive advantages for domestic brands. 4. Thematic investments in the humanoid robot supply chain, which may benefit component manufacturers [5][35].

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Leading the Market" with an expectation of exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [3][39]. Core Insights - The domestic market for home appliances is showing optimism, particularly in air conditioning production, while export markets face challenges due to tariff uncertainties [3][5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for air conditioning production in the upcoming months, driven by seasonal demand and government incentives for replacing old appliances [10][34]. - The report notes a decline in export growth for home appliances in April, attributed to intense competition and fluctuating tariff policies, although emerging markets are providing some relief [20][34]. - Raw material costs are decreasing, which is expected to enhance profitability for the industry, with stable prices for copper, rebar, and ethylene [26][34]. - Shipping costs are currently low, which benefits export-oriented home appliance companies, although there may be fluctuations due to potential "export rush" phenomena [30][34]. Summary by Sections 1. White Goods Production - Air conditioning production is optimistic with expected increases of 9.9%, 14.1%, and 14.3% from May to July 2025, while refrigerator and washing machine production remains stable [10][13]. - Domestic refrigerator production is gradually improving, while export production remains pessimistic due to tariff impacts [13][16]. - Washing machine production is in a seasonal downturn domestically, but export impacts from tariffs are minimal [16][34]. 2. Home Appliance Exports - In April 2025, home appliance exports fell by 2.89% year-on-year, with a total export value of $8.65 billion [20][34]. - The volume of exports increased by 1.2%, indicating a mixed performance influenced by competitive pricing and tariff fluctuations [20][34]. 3. Raw Materials - The report indicates that raw material costs are at low levels, with copper priced at $9,649.5 per ton, rebar at 3,118 yuan per ton, and ethylene at $781 per ton, which helps reduce cost pressures [26][34]. 4. Shipping Costs - Current shipping costs are low, which is advantageous for home appliance exporters, although potential fluctuations may arise from increased export activities [30][34]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1. Configuration type focusing on white goods with stable performance and high dividends, including companies like Midea Group and Gree Electric [5][34]. 2. Turning point type targeting small appliances and kitchen appliances expected to recover [5][34]. 3. Growth potential in black goods with technological upgrades and competitive advantages for domestic brands [5][34]. 4. Thematic investments in the humanoid robot supply chain, which may benefit component manufacturers [5][34].

2025 年 5 月 15 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 4 月 29 日，公司发布《2025 年第一季度报告》，2025Q1 实现营收 5.03 亿 元，同环比分别+4.8%/ -9.98%，归母净利润 0.36 亿元，同环比分别+13.62%/ +218.29%;扣非后归母净利为 0.34 亿元，同环比分别+16.69%/ +217.86%。 事件点评 其他化学制品Ⅲ 聚胶股份（301283.SZ） 买入-B(维持) 向高毛利市场切换，盈利显著修复 资料来源：最闻 市场数据：2025 年 5 月 15 日 收盘价（元）： 31.46 年内最高/最低（元）： 36.66/20.80 高质量订单切换及成本下降助力盈利改善。25Q1 公司毛利率为 16.74%， 同比+1.09 个 pct，环比+5.52 个 pct，一方面系公司向高毛利订单进行切换， 另一方面系海运费及原材料在 25Q1 下降所致。根据宁波航运交易所，25Q1 欧线运价为 2945 USD/FEU，同比-30%；根据隆众，高聚物均价为 13463 元/ 吨，环比-11.59%，且石油树脂和矿物油仍处在下降趋势中，预计毛 ...

太阳能 福莱特（601865.SH） 买入-A(维持) 2025 年 Q1 业绩环比扭亏为盈，行业龙头地位稳固 2025 年 5 月 15 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 市场数据：2025 年 5 月 15 日 | 收盘价（元）： | | | | 15.27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | | | 30.31/14.60 | | 流 通 A 股 / | 总 | 股 | 本 | 19.00/23.43 | | （亿）： | | | | | | 流通 A 股市值（亿）： | | | | 290.14 | | 总市值（亿）： | | | | 357.76 | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 31 日 | 基本每股收益(元)： | 0.05 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | 0.05 | | 每股净资产(元)： | 9.31 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 0.48 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 肖索 执业登记编码：S0760522030006 邮箱：xiaosuo@sxzq.com 贾惠淋 执业登记编 ...

通信 周跟踪（20250506-20250509） 领先大市-A(维持) 通信行业近一年市场表现 AI 物联网蓝海启程-AI 物联网行业深度 报告 2025.5.6 分析师： 高宇洋 执业登记编码：S0760523050002 邮箱：gaoyuyang@sxzq.com 张天 执业登记编码：S0760523120001 望不变，再论 AI 算力的需求逻辑-周跟 踪（20250428-20250504） 2025.5.9 邮箱：zhangtian@sxzq.com 孙悦文 邮箱：sunyuewen@sxzq.com ——北美光通信财报继续验证景气度，印巴冲突凸显军工通信体系化能力重要 2025 年 5 月 15 日 行业研究/行业周报 投资要点 行业动向： 1）北美 Coherent、Lumentum、AAOI、Fabrinet、Macom 等光通信企业财 报陆续发布，光模块上下游产品增长明显，叠加上周北美 CSP 资本开支积极指 引，我们认为光通信板块二季度具有较强补涨确定性。 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证通信】北美 CSP 资本开支展 1.1 Coherent 2025 财年第三季度营收 15 亿美元 ...