纺织服装 社零数据点评 同步大市-A(维持) 2025 年 3 月 18 日 行业研究/行业快报 纺织服装行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 相关报告： 1-2 月国内社零同比增长 4.0%，体育娱乐用品景气延续 事件描述： 3 月 17 日，国家统计局公布 2025 年 1-2 月社零数据。 事件点评： 1-2 月国内社零同比增长 4.0%，1 月消费者信心指数环比回升。2025 年 1-2 月，国 内实现社零总额 8.37 万亿元，同比增长 4.0%，环比提升 0.3pct，表现低于市场一致预 期（根据 Wind，2025 年 1-2 月社零当月同比增速预测平均值为+4.5%）。按消费类型分， 2025 年 1-2 月餐饮收入、商品零售同比增速分别为 4.3%、3.9%。2025 年 1 月，我国消费 者信心指数为 87.5，环比提升 1.1。 分渠道来看，线上渠道表现继续优于商品零售大盘，百货业态增速由负转正。2025 年 1-2 月，商品零售额整体同比增长 3.9%，其中，线上渠道，实物商品网上零售额同比 增长 5.0%，表现好于商品零售整体；实物商品网上零售额中，吃类、穿类和用类商品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the textile and apparel industry [1][17]. Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel industry has shown a weak recovery in the domestic consumption market, with a consumer confidence index of 87.5 in January, indicating a slight improvement [4][8]. - The retail sales of textiles and apparel increased by 3.3% year-on-year in January-February 2025, marking a return to positive growth [5][6]. - The report highlights the ongoing strong performance of sports and entertainment products, with a year-on-year growth of 25.0% in the same period [5][8]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In January-February 2025, the total retail sales in China reached 8.37 trillion yuan, growing by 4.0% year-on-year, which is below market expectations of 4.5% [4]. - Online retail channels outperformed the overall retail market, with a 5.0% year-on-year growth in physical goods online sales [4]. Textile Manufacturing Sector - The textile manufacturing sector faces uncertainties regarding tariffs and inventory adjustments from major brands like Nike, but companies with strong customer ties and overseas production capabilities are expected to gain market share [6]. - Recommended companies include Huali Group and Weixing Co., which are expected to benefit from new customer orders and brand share growth [6]. Brand Apparel Sector - The report suggests focusing on high-demand outdoor sports apparel brands, recommending Anta Sports and 361 Degrees, which have strong retail performance and brand influence [8]. - The demand for home textiles and children's clothing is expected to benefit from government subsidies, with recommendations for leading companies like Mercury Home Textiles and Semir Apparel [8]. Gold and Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year in January-February 2025, indicating a weak recovery in the market [8]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Chaohongji and Lao Fengxiang, which are expected to perform well in the current market conditions [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" and it is maintained [1]. Core Views - The traditional woolen business has shown improved profitability, while the nylon products have begun production [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.83% [2][4]. - The company is expected to see gradual sales from its nylon business starting in 2025, and the ultra-fine fiber products are in a continuous improvement process [10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported quarterly revenues of 359 million, 417 million, 387 million, and 453 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.35%, 4.07%, -2.63%, and -5.02% respectively [4]. - The gross profit margin for the company decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 33.58% in 2024, primarily due to the decline in profitability of ultra-fine fiber products [6]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 11.81%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85 percentage points [6]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenues from the fine woolen fabric, clothing, and ultra-fine fiber products were 810 million, 611 million, and 176 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -9.54%, +4.45%, and +94.75% respectively [5]. - The gross profit margins for these segments were 35.54%, 36.55%, and 10.23%, showing improvements in traditional business profitability [5]. Future Earnings Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.61, 0.78, and 0.90 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 27.6, 21.6, and 18.8 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" and is maintained [1][9] Core Views - The traditional woolen business has shown improved profitability, while the nylon products have begun production [1] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.83% [2][4] - The company is expected to see gradual sales from its nylon business starting in 2025, with ongoing improvements in the ultra-fine fiber products [9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported quarterly revenues of 359 million, 417 million, 387 million, and 453 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.35%, 4.07%, -2.63%, and -5.02% respectively [4] - The gross profit margin for the company decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 33.58% in 2024, primarily due to the decline in profitability of ultra-fine fiber products [6] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 11.81%, down 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [6] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the fine woolen fabric, clothing, and ultra-fine fiber products in 2024 was 810 million, 611 million, and 176 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -9.54%, +4.45%, and +94.75% respectively [5] - The gross profit margins for these segments were 35.54%, 36.55%, and 10.23%, showing improvements in traditional business profitability [5] Future Earnings Projections - Expected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.61, 0.78, and 0.90 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 27.6, 21.6, and 18.8 [9][11]

纺织服装 行业周报（20250309-20250315） 同步大市-A(维持) Puma 披露 2024 年度业绩，预计 2025 年收入增长低至中单位数 纺织服装行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 本周观察：Puma 披露 2024 年度业绩，预计 2025 年收入增长低至中单位数 2024 年，汇率中性下，Puma 销售额增长 4.4%，达到 88.17 亿欧元；净利润下降 7.6%，为 2.82 亿欧元，主要由于净财务费用增加和少数股东权益增加。分区域看，美洲 地区增长 7.0%，亚太地区增长 3.8%，EMEA 地区增长 2.1%。分渠道看，批发业务增长 0.4%，DTC 业务增长 16.6%，DTC 占比从 2023 年的 24.8% 提升至 27.5%。分产品 看，鞋类增长 5.4%，服装增长 3.7%，配饰增长 2.0%。 来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 相关报告： 【 山 证 纺 织 服 装 】 On Running 公 布 2024 年业绩，预计 2025 年营收同增至 少 27%- 【 山 证 纺 服 】 行 业 周 报 2024Q4，汇率中性下，Puma 销售额增长 9.8%，达到 22.89 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry maintains a rating of "Synchronize with the market" [1] Core Viewpoints - Puma's 2024 annual performance reveals a sales growth of 4.4% to €8.817 billion, with a net profit decline of 7.6% to €282 million due to increased financial costs and minority interests [4][15] - For 2025, Puma expects revenue growth to be in the low to mid-single digits, with adjusted EBIT projected between €520 million and €600 million [6][17] - The textile and apparel sector has shown a mixed performance, with a notable decline in retail sales for clothing, down 7.9% year-on-year in early 2025 [8][48] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 3.95%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.36 percentage points [10][18] - The SW textile manufacturing PE-TTM is at 21.47 times, while the apparel and home textile sector stands at 23.58 times [22] Company Performance - Puma's direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales grew by 16.6%, increasing its share from 24.8% in 2023 to 27.5% in 2024 [4][15] - In Q4 2024, Puma's sales rose by 9.8% to €2.289 billion, with a net profit increase of 2897.6% to €2.45 million [5][16] Market Trends - The retail sales of major retail enterprises in China fell by 4.6% in early 2025, with significant declines in clothing and cosmetics [8][48] - The demand for sports and entertainment products increased by 16.8%, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [48] Inventory and Supply Chain - As of the end of 2024, Puma's inventory grew by 11.6% to €2.014 billion, attributed to increased in-transit goods for new product cycles [6][17] - The company maintains that its total inventory remains at a reasonable level with improved quality [6][17] Future Outlook - The textile and apparel industry is expected to face challenges, including tariff uncertainties and inventory adjustments from major brands like Nike [12] - The overall consumer confidence index in January 2025 was 87.5, indicating a weak recovery in the domestic consumption market [12]

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,426.13, up by 0.19%, benefiting from the expansion of the composite materials market [2] New Stock Market Insights - The new stock market activity has decreased, with 21 new stocks recording positive gains, accounting for 48.84% of the total, down from 60.98% previously [5] - The first-day listing gains and opening valuations for new stocks on the ChiNext and main boards have declined, while the first-day PE ratio for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has increased [5] - Notable new stocks include Huanxun Technology, which had a first-day gain of 187.93% and an opening valuation of 47.09 times earnings [5] Coal Industry Insights - The coal market is experiencing a recovery, with domestic coal prices stabilizing and overseas coal prices rebounding [8] - As of March 14, the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 692 RMB/ton, showing a weekly change of -0.29% [9] - Metallurgical coal inventories are at low levels, and downstream demand is expected to improve, with the average price of metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port being 1480 RMB/ton, down by 3.27% [10] Solar Energy Industry Insights - The Ministry of Finance has released a management approach for special funds for clean energy development, indicating structural price increases for products [14] - The price of photovoltaic equipment and components has decreased by 13.0% year-on-year as of February, with expectations for a gradual recovery in prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics [15] - The average price of multi-crystalline silicon remains stable, while the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells are expected to rise due to increased demand [16] Company-Specific Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.072 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.12%, with a net profit of 1.153 billion RMB, up by 11.75% [20] - The aerospace new materials business continues to grow steadily, with revenue reaching 4.969 billion RMB, a 6.37% increase year-on-year [20] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong recovery of commercial aviation and the booming low-altitude economy, with a focus on expanding its market share in civilian aviation and low-altitude industries [20]

研究早观点 2025 年 3 月 18 日 星期二 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,426.13 | 0.19 | 长，持续受益复材市场扩张 | | 深证成指 | | 10,957.82 | -0.19 | | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,996.79 | -0.24 | | | 中小板指 | | 6,818.05 | 0.04 | | | 创业板指 | | 2,215.13 | -0.52 | | | 科创 50 | | 1,083.21 | -0.45 | | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 2 【山证新股】新股周报（2025.03.17-2025.03.21）-新股市场活跃度下降， 科创板首发 PE 上升 【山证煤炭】行业周报（20250310-20250316）：-临近年报季，关注高分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its aviation new materials business, with revenue reaching 4.969 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, and a net profit of 1.220 billion yuan, up 11.22% [4][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the strong recovery of commercial aviation and the booming low-altitude economy, with a focus on expanding its market in civil aviation and low-altitude industries [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 5.072 billion yuan, a 6.12% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.153 billion yuan, up 11.75% [3][8]. - The company's gross margin improved by 2.08 percentage points to 38.83%, and the net profit margin increased by 1.35 percentage points to 23.06% in 2024 [4][10]. - The company has maintained a strong balance sheet, with total liabilities decreasing by 14.19% to 1.889 billion yuan and cash and cash equivalents increasing by 3.34% to 1.642 billion yuan [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.96 yuan, 1.13 yuan, and 1.33 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 27.0, 23.1, and 19.5 based on the closing price of 25.96 yuan on March 14 [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for AVIC High-Tech (600862.SH) [1] Core Views - AVIC High-Tech has shown steady growth in operating performance, benefiting from the expansion of the composite materials market. The company reported a revenue of 5.072 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.153 billion yuan, up 11.75% year-on-year [3][4] - The aerospace composite materials business continues to grow steadily, with revenue reaching 4.969 billion yuan in 2024, a 6.37% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.220 billion yuan, up 11.22% year-on-year. The advanced manufacturing technology business also saw significant improvement, with a revenue increase of 44.87% [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong recovery of commercial aviation and the booming low-altitude economy, with a promising market outlook for composite materials in civil aviation and low-altitude economic sectors [5] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported total liabilities of 1.889 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.19% year-on-year, and cash and cash equivalents of 1.642 billion yuan, an increase of 3.34% year-on-year. Accounts receivable decreased slightly to 2.196 billion yuan, while inventory increased by 6.11% to 1.275 billion yuan [3][4] - The gross margin improved by 2.08 percentage points to 38.83%, and the net profit margin increased by 1.35 percentage points to 23.06% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [4][10] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.96, 1.13, and 1.33 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 27.0, 23.1, and 19.5 based on the closing price of 25.96 yuan on March 14 [6][8]