[Table_InterIndex] 国际市场表现 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 09 月 03 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】周一A股三大指数低开低走，上证指数跌1.1%报2811.04 点，深证成指跌 2.11%，创业板指跌 2.75%。沪深两市成交额 0.71 万 亿元。申万行业方面，煤炭、银行和公共事业上涨，食饮、军工、美 容护理等领跌；概念板块方面，ST 板块、两轮车、煤炭概念等上涨， 中船系、科创次新股、国家大基金持股等领跌。港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 1.65%报 17691.97 点，恒生科技指数跌 2.08%；海外方面，美国 9 月 2 日休市。欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，亚太主要股指收盘多数 上涨。 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要 市场研究 3235 【重要新闻】 【国务院办公厅发布关于以高水平开放推动服务贸易高质量发展的 意见】意见提出，全面实施跨境服务贸易负面清单。提升负面清单管 理能力，加强重点行业监管，优化资金、技术、人员、数据等要素跨 境流动监管。聚焦居民消费升级需求，推动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [31]. Core Viewpoints - The communication industry index decreased by 0.50% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 first-level industries [1][13]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in the satellite internet, data elements, and intelligent computing center sectors [1][28]. - The industry valuation is currently below historical averages, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.36, significantly lower than the historical mean of 34.44 [17]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - **Satellite Internet**: China Satellite Network announced a plan to promote the large-scale application of the BeiDou system, focusing on governance and modern industrial capabilities [5]. - **Data Elements**: A new intelligent governance platform for data elements was launched, aiming to enhance the value of data assets through a comprehensive management service [6]. - **Satellite Navigation**: The establishment of a nationwide satellite navigation positioning benchmark network was reported, enhancing high-precision navigation services [7]. - **Terminal Security**: The first national terminal security ecological alliance was formed, indicating a shift towards collaborative efforts in the terminal security industry [9][11]. - **Intelligent Computing Center**: The largest single-cluster intelligent computing center in China was officially put into operation, significantly enhancing computational capabilities [12]. Market Review - The communication industry saw a total trading volume of 123.19 billion yuan last week, with an average daily trading volume of 24.63 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.11% increase from the previous week [19]. - Among 134 stocks in the communication sector, 99 stocks rose, indicating a positive trend with 73.88% of stocks experiencing gains [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the satellite communication industry chain, artificial intelligence computing industry chain, digital applications, and 5G construction [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, indicating a projected relative increase of over 10% compared to the broader market in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The report highlights the investment opportunities arising from innovations in AI large models, particularly in industry-specific applications. It notes a 2.77% increase in the computer industry, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.94 percentage points, ranking 9th among primary industries [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the growing interest in AI, with significant developments such as the free release of the GLM-4-Flash model by Zhipu AI and the launch of the 330 billion parameter Kunlun model by China National Petroleum, marking a first in the energy and chemical sector [6][7]. - The AI data center chip market is projected to reach $151 billion by 2029, with a current market size of approximately $78 billion [11]. - The report suggests focusing on digitalization, intelligence, and innovation-driven investments, particularly in the context of domestic AI model opportunities and the integration of smart transportation systems [29]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Zhipu AI announced the free release of the GLM-4-Flash model, supporting 26 languages and achieving a generation speed of 72.14 tokens per second [6]. - China National Petroleum launched the 330 billion parameter Kunlun model, the first approved large model in the energy sector, developed in collaboration with major tech companies [7]. - The Qwen2-VL model from Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen team can process images of any resolution without segmentation, enhancing its usability [8]. - The first lunar science multimodal model was released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Alibaba Cloud, achieving over 80% accuracy in crater age and morphology classification [10]. - Omdia forecasts that the AI data center chip market will grow significantly, reaching $151 billion by 2029, with a slowdown expected post-2026 [11]. - Cerebras Systems introduced the fastest AI inference solution, claiming speeds 20 times faster than Nvidia's offerings [12]. Market Performance - The computer industry saw a 2.77% increase last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.17%, indicating strong relative performance [1][13]. - The average daily trading volume in the computer sector increased by 8.72% compared to the previous week, reaching approximately 451.91 billion yuan [18]. - Over 81.69% of stocks in the computer sector rose last week, with 290 out of 355 stocks experiencing gains [18]. Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the computer industry is 31.83, significantly below the historical average of 47.96 since 2016, indicating potential undervaluation [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on policy guidance and demand-driven investments, particularly in digitalization, intelligence, and innovation [29].

[Table_Title] 强链补链增厚业绩，营收增速表现亮眼 [Table_StockName] ——广电运通（002152）点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 09 月 02 日 [Table_Summary] 报告关键要素: 公司披露 2024 年半年度报告。2024 上半年公司实现营业收入 47.07 亿 元，同比增长 29.45%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 4.98 亿元， 同比增长 5.20%；实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利 润 4.40 亿元，同比增长 6.73%。 投资要点: 公司营收实现较快增长，城市智能业务表现亮眼。公司 2024 上半年营 业收入同比增长 29.45%，实现较快增长，主要受益于中金支付、中数 智汇的并表以及城市智能业务收入的快速增长。其中，公司城市智能业 务 2024H1 实现营业收入 16.78 亿元，同比增长 29.71%，较 2023H1 的 同比增速（-6.07%）由负转正，且显著高于 2023 年城市智能业务的同 比增速（+6.32%）。公司城市智能业务营收增速的提升主要受益于公司 在"数字政府"和"智慧城市"等领 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a significant rebound last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.68% to close at 2842.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.38%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.53%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 0.88 trillion yuan [1][6] - In the Shenwan industry sector, real estate, electronics, media, and non-bank financials led the gains, while banks and public utilities saw declines. Concept stocks related to Huawei HiSilicon, internet insurance, rental and sale rights, and cloud gaming performed well, while stocks related to artemisinin and fentanyl fell [1][6] - The Hong Kong market also saw positive movement, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.14% to 17989.07 points, marking a 3.72% increase in August. The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.87%, with a 1.24% rise in August [1][6] - Internationally, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.55% to 41563.08 points, reaching a historical high. The S&P 500 Index rose by 1.01% to 5648.4 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 1.13% to 17713.62 points [1][6] Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has proposed new requirements for building a more complete market access system, including the orderly advancement of a revised list and comprehensive market access efficiency assessments starting next year [2] - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized increasing the implementation of fiscal policies, focusing on six key areas, including optimizing the use of special government bonds and ensuring key expenditures are met, particularly in the real estate sector [2][6] - The report indicates that the overall domestic economic operation remains stable, with industrial production continuing to grow rapidly and trade structure improving, although effective domestic demand is still insufficient [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a stable recovery in performance for the companies analyzed, with significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, particularly for Songcheng Performance and Wuliangye [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for blood products, with companies like Tian Tan Biological and Pai Lin Biological showing substantial increases in plasma collection and revenue [10][12]. Market Review - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.5% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.94% [2][5]. - Key sectors leading the market included beauty care, electric equipment, and food and beverage, while banking and oil sectors lagged [2][5]. Company Performance - Songcheng Performance reported a revenue of 1.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%, and a net profit of 550 million yuan, up 81.75% [6]. - Wuliangye achieved a revenue of 50.648 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.3% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 19.057 billion yuan, up 11.86% [8]. - Pai Lin Biological's revenue reached 1.136 billion yuan, a 60.23% increase, with a net profit of 327 million yuan, up 128.44% [10]. Industry Trends - The report notes a significant shift towards high-end products in the liquor industry, with Wuliangye focusing on mid-to-high price segments [8]. - The blood products sector is experiencing heightened demand, with companies expanding their plasma collection capabilities and product offerings [10][12]. Financial Metrics - Songcheng Performance's gross margin improved to 69.19%, with a net margin of 47.62% for the first half of 2024 [7]. - Wuliangye's gross margin was reported at 77.36%, with a net margin of 39.15% [8]. - Pai Lin Biological's gross margin reached 50.20%, reflecting an increase in operational efficiency [11]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook for the companies, with expected net profits for Songcheng Performance projected at 1.286 billion yuan for 2024, and for Wuliangye at 33.593 billion yuan [6][8]. - The blood products industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by increasing awareness and demand for blood-derived products [10][12].

Market Overview - In August, the A-share market experienced a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2837.43 points, down 3.45% from the end of July. The largest decline was seen in the STAR 50 index, which fell by 9.71%, followed by the ChiNext index at 9.28% [1][12]. - The overall market sentiment was weak, with major indices showing a decline. The industrial production growth rate slightly decreased, while retail sales growth rebounded. However, effective domestic demand remained insufficient [9][12]. Profit Analysis - In July, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.60% year-on-year, showing a slight recovery compared to June. The cumulative revenue growth rate remained unchanged at 2.90% [16]. - Different types of enterprises showed varied profit growth rates, with private enterprises experiencing a 7.30% increase, while state-owned enterprises saw a 1.00% increase [16]. Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - The central bank's MLF operations decreased in volume in August, with a net withdrawal of 1010 billion yuan. The total net injection in the open market was 596.74 billion yuan [20]. - As of August 28, the net outflow of northbound funds from the A-share market was 28.73 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in overall capital inflow [30][31]. Valuation Levels - As of August 28, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai 50 index was at a historical percentile of approximately 60.63%, indicating a significant increase from the end of July [39]. - Most industries' price-to-earnings ratios are below historical average levels, suggesting that there are still attractive investment opportunities [1][39]. Policy Analysis - The central government has issued policies to accelerate the green transformation of the economy, which is expected to benefit the green industry in the long term [9]. - The central bank will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance to guide reasonable growth in money and credit, aiming to stabilize the RMB exchange rate [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative outperformance of 5% to 15% compared to the market over the next 6 months [5][10] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024H1 met expectations, with revenue reaching 1.177 billion yuan (+59.00% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 550 million yuan (+81.75% YoY) [3] - Both established and new projects performed exceptionally well, with Hangzhou Songcheng's revenue growing 29.42% YoY to 293 million yuan and Guangdong Songcheng generating 126 million yuan in revenue since its opening [3] - Profit margins improved significantly, with gross margin reaching 69.19% (+5.24pcts YoY) and net margin increasing to 47.62% (+6.90pcts YoY) [3] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected net profits of 1.286 billion yuan, 1.570 billion yuan, and 1.796 billion yuan for 2024-2026 respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - 2024H1 revenue: 1.177 billion yuan (+59.00% YoY) [3] - 2024H1 net profit: 550 million yuan (+81.75% YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 revenue: 618 million yuan (+22.07% YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 net profit: 299 million yuan (+23.17% YoY) [3] - Gross margin: 69.19% (+5.24pcts YoY) [3] - Net margin: 47.62% (+6.90pcts YoY) [3] Project Performance - Hangzhou Songcheng: 293 million yuan revenue (+29.42% YoY) [3] - Guangdong Songcheng: 126 million yuan revenue since opening, with average daily shows of 4.2 and visitor stay time exceeding 4 hours [3] - Three Gorges Songcheng: Officially opened on July 26, 2024, with 6 consecutive sold-out shows on opening day [3] Future Projections - 2024E revenue: 2.615 billion yuan (+35.74% YoY) [4] - 2025E revenue: 3.091 billion yuan (+18.20% YoY) [4] - 2026E revenue: 3.450 billion yuan (+11.62% YoY) [4] - 2024E net profit: 1.286 billion yuan (+1270.43% YoY) [4] - 2025E net profit: 1.570 billion yuan (+22.08% YoY) [4] - 2026E net profit: 1.796 billion yuan (+14.36% YoY) [4] Valuation Metrics - 2024E PE: 15.38x [4] - 2025E PE: 12.60x [4] - 2026E PE: 11.02x [4] - 2024E PB: 2.32x [4] - 2025E PB: 1.96x [4] - 2026E PB: 1.66x [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Increase Holding" [4][8]. Core Views - The company has achieved steady performance growth, successfully meeting its target tasks for the first half of 2024, with a revenue of 50.648 billion yuan (YoY +11.30%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.057 billion yuan (YoY +11.86%) [3]. - The focus on mid-to-high-end products has led to an improvement in channel structure, with the core product, the eighth generation of Wuliangye, seeing a sales increase of 12.07% and revenue growth of 11.45% [3]. - Profit margins have shown a slight increase, with the gross margin rising by 0.58 percentage points to 77.36% in the first half of 2024, despite an increase in sales expenses [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 50.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.30%, and a net profit of 19.057 billion yuan, up 11.86% YoY. The Q2 revenue was 15.815 billion yuan (YoY +10.07%) with a net profit of 5.012 billion yuan (YoY +11.50%) [3]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2024 was 77.36%, a slight increase of 0.58 percentage points, while the net profit margin rose by 0.05 percentage points to 39.15% [3]. Product and Channel Strategy - The eighth generation of Wuliangye saw a sales increase of 12.07% and revenue growth of 11.45%, while other series experienced a sales decline of 23.86% but revenue growth of 17.77% [3]. - Direct sales and distribution channels both showed steady growth, with direct sales revenue increasing by 11.01% and distribution revenue by 13.51% [3]. Profitability and Expense Management - The company’s selling expenses increased, with the selling expense ratio rising to 17.34% in Q2 2024, while the management expense ratio decreased to 4.26% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow to 33.593 billion yuan in 2024, with expected growth rates of 11.20%, 10.96%, and 10.61% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target of outperforming the market by over 15% in the next six months [8][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance, with a revenue of 1.136 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 60.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 327 million yuan, up 128.44% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 297 million yuan, growing by 184.61% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Product and Market Position - The company ranks third in the industry with a total of 11 product varieties across three categories. It has 38 plasma collection stations, also ranking third in the industry, with significant presence in regions such as Sichuan, Shanxi, Guangdong, Heilongjiang, and Xinjiang [4]. Plasma Collection and Demand - In the first half of 2024, the company collected approximately 700 tons of plasma, a substantial increase from nearly 550 tons in the same period of 2023. This growth is attributed to both internal and external expansions in plasma collection capabilities. The company has extended its strategic partnership with Xinjiang Deyuan to enhance plasma supply and is actively constructing new collection stations [5]. Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a gross margin of 50.20%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio decreased by 11.21 percentage points to 17.32%, resulting in a net profit margin of 28.78%, which is an increase of 8.61 percentage points year-on-year. The company is focused on improving operational efficiency through organizational restructuring and enhanced management processes [6]. Financial Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.959 billion yuan, 3.449 billion yuan, and 3.903 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 781.61 million yuan, 934.44 million yuan, and 1.06565 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.07 yuan, 1.27 yuan, and 1.45 yuan for the same years [7][13].