计算机 分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 计算机相对沪深 300 指数表现 -28% -18% -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 44% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 重点关注子行业的主要数据和动态包括： 相关报告 （1）国产化：随着 Q4 美国对华制裁政策的进一步收紧，2024 年我国集成电路在进口依赖度比例为 78%，较 1-11 月回落 2 PCT，英伟达来自新加坡和中国区域收入占比都出现了下滑。 《计算机行业深度分析：三大要素齐发力， AI 应用步入全面加速期》 2025-03-07 《计算机行业月报：DeepSeek-R1 带来 AI 技术突破，持续关注 GPT-5 的推出进程》 2025-02-13 （2）AI：2025 年 2 月以来，xAI 和 Anthropic 分别发布了推理模 型来对标 DeepSeek-R1，两大闭源模型在产品能力并未显示出显 著差异，同时结合训练成本来看，也 ...

登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -17% -12% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 20% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,358.73 | -0.39 | | 深证成指 | | 10,736.19 | -0.99 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,911.58 | -0.40 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,748.91 | -0.38 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,993.97 | -0.77 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -17% -12% -7% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,371.92 | -0.23 | 深证成指 | 10,843.23 | -0.17 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 3,927.23 | -0.36 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 3,763.39 | -0.44 | | 中证 | 500 | 6,040.50 | -0 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the government's focus on promoting high-quality development in the environmental protection equipment manufacturing industry, aiming for significant market share increases by 2027 [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary task for economic growth, indicating a shift towards a more consumption-driven economy [12][14] - The report notes that the AI application sector is expected to see accelerated growth, driven by advancements in AI models and increased enterprise-level deployment [31][33] Group 2 - The gaming industry is projected to experience steady growth, with a rise in the number of players and average revenue per user (ARPU), indicating a healthy demand for gaming products [34][35] - The report discusses the increasing competitiveness of Chinese games in overseas markets, suggesting a positive outlook for game exports [34][35] - AI technology is expected to enhance game development efficiency and creativity, potentially boosting user engagement and spending [34][35] Group 3 - The report indicates that the semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, with AI being a significant growth driver, and forecasts a continued increase in global semiconductor sales [26][27] - The RISC-V ecosystem is rapidly developing, with projections for substantial market growth, highlighting the importance of open-source architectures in the semiconductor space [29][30] - The report suggests that the demand for NAND Flash memory is expected to improve due to various market factors, including AI applications and domestic manufacturers' growth [28][30] Group 4 - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of recovery, with notable increases in stock prices for various sub-sectors, particularly in alcoholic beverages and dairy products [39][41] - The report mentions a significant rise in fixed asset investments in the food manufacturing industry, indicating a positive trend in production capacity [40][41] - The report recommends investment opportunities in specific food and beverage companies, particularly in the white liquor and health food segments [41]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a high opening followed by a consolidation phase, facing resistance around 3392 points, and ultimately closing with minor declines in major indices [3][4][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3371.92 points, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10843.23 points, down 0.17% [8][9] - The total trading volume for both markets was 17,258 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [4][16] Sector Performance - Communication equipment, power grid equipment, securities, and consumer electronics sectors performed well, while energy metals, biopharmaceuticals, aerospace, and small metals sectors showed weaker performance [4][8] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with notable increases in power equipment, jewelry, gaming, and cultural media sectors [8][11] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.28 times and 39.27 times, respectively, which are at the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [4][16] Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates a market characterized by leadership from technology sectors, defensive dividend stocks, consumer recovery, and domestic demand-driven growth as macroeconomic policies continue to be implemented [4][16] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities while balancing defensive and growth strategies, particularly in sectors like communication equipment, power grid equipment, software development, and consumer electronics [4][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [7][8]. Core Insights - The communication industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index in February 2025, with a growth of 2.67% compared to the CSI 300's 1.91% [7][13]. - The rapid expansion of AI models is accelerating the adoption of cloud computing, with global cloud infrastructure service spending expected to reach $321.3 billion in 2024, a 20% year-on-year increase [7][19]. - The enterprise-level ICT market in China is projected to grow by 11.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching approximately $269.36 billion, driven by cloud computing, AI, and computing power deployment [7][23]. - The introduction of DeepSeek's AI model is expected to significantly impact the terminal market over the next 2-5 years, enhancing the intelligence of devices through natural language processing and multimodal reasoning capabilities [7][8]. - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the telecom sector, particularly with the integration of AI capabilities into cloud services by major telecom operators [8]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In February 2025, the communication industry index rose by 2.67%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 index [13][14]. - The telecom sector saw a diverse performance among sub-sectors, with network planning and engineering services leading with increases of 23.77% and 17.43% respectively [14][18]. Industry Tracking - Global cloud infrastructure service spending is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year, reaching $321.3 billion in 2024, with AI models driving this growth [19][20]. - The ICT market in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2024 to 2028, with significant contributions from cloud computing and AI [23][24]. - The telecom business revenue in China reached 1.74 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 3.2% increase year-on-year [30][34]. Telecom Industry Tracking - As of December 2024, the number of mobile phone users in China reached 1.79 billion, with 5G users accounting for 56.7% of the total [34][37]. - The new business revenue in the telecom sector grew by 10.6% year-on-year, contributing to a 2.5 percentage point increase in overall telecom revenue [42][44]. Mobile Phone Industry Tracking - In December 2024, domestic smartphone shipments reached 34.528 million units, a 22.1% increase year-on-year, with 5G smartphones making up 88.1% of total shipments [48][50]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the smartphone market in 2025, driven by government consumption subsidy policies [51][53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the lithium battery industry [1][7]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector has shown strong performance, with the lithium battery index rising by 13.47% in February 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.50% [7][10]. - In February 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 892,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 87.0%, with a market share of 41.90% [7][17]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring upstream raw material price trends, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [7][10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The lithium battery index and new energy vehicle index both outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in February 2025 [10]. - A total of 94 stocks in the lithium battery sector rose, with an average increase of 12.94% [10]. New Energy Vehicle Sales and Industry Prices - In 2025, new energy vehicle sales in China are projected to continue growing, with significant increases in both domestic and export markets [17][19]. - The report notes that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 CNY/ton as of March 11, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.23% from early February [7][37]. Industry and Company News - The report discusses various industry developments, including government policies aimed at promoting new energy vehicles and advancements in battery technology [53][54]. - It highlights the strategic partnerships and technological innovations being pursued by key players in the lithium battery sector, such as BYD and CATL [54].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 成长行业领涨 A 股小幅震荡 ——市场分析 相关报告 联系人： 李智 | | | 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 12 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（03 月 12 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指高 开后震荡整理，盘中股指在 3392 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡回 落，盘中通信设备、电网设备、证券以及消费电子等行业表现较 好；能源金属、生物制品、航空航天以及小金属等行业表现较弱， 沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡的运行特征。创业板市场周三震荡回 落，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周三 A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指高开后震荡整 理，盘中股指在 3392 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡回落，盘中通 信设备、电网设备、证券以及消费电子等行业表现较好；能源金 属、生物制品、航空航天以及小金属等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基 本呈现小幅震荡的运行特征。当前上证综指与创业板指数的平均市 盈率分别为 14.28 倍、39 ...

分析师：牟国洪 登记编码：S0730513030002 锂电池 mough@ccnew.com 021-50586980 销量同比高增长，短期可关注 ——锂电池行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 投资要点： 锂电池相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 第 1 页 / 25 页 资料来源：中原证券研究所，Wind 电话： 0371-65585629 021-50586973 《锂电池行业月报：销量同比增长，短期适 度关注》 2025-02-17 《锂电池行业月报：销量高增长，短期适度 关注》 2025-01-14 《锂电池行业月报：销量持续高增长，板块 持续关注》 2024-12-12 2 月锂电池板块指数走势强于沪深 300 指数。2025 年 2 月，锂电 池指数上涨 13.47%，新能源汽车指数上涨 7.69%，而同期沪深 300 指数上涨 2.50%，锂电池指数走势强于沪深 300 指数。 2 月我国新能源汽车销售高增长。2025 年 2 月，我国新能源汽车销 售 89.20 万辆，同比增长 87.0%，环比下降 5.51%，2 月月度销量 占比 41.90%，主要系政策层面持续鼓励，新 ...

通信 分析师：李璐毅 登记编码：S0730524120001 lily2@ccnew.com 021-50586278 Manus 在 AI Agent 领域实现技术突破， AI 驱动智算中心升级 ——通信行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 通信相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《通 信 行业 月 报： 三 大 运营 商 全面 接入 DeepSeek 开源大模型，数据要素产业化进程 加速》 2025-02-16 《通信行业月报：国家实施手机等数码产品购 新 补 贴 ， 智 能 手 机 市 场 平 稳 复 苏 》 2025-01-08 《通信行业月报：运营商大数据业务高速增 长，AI 手机渗透率逐步提升》 2024-12-11 联系人：李智 投资要点： 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共28页 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 12 日 风险提示：国际贸易争端风险；供应链稳定性风险；云厂商或运营商资 本开支不及预期；数字中国建设不及预期；AI 发展不及预期；行业竞 争加剧。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccn ...