Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 119 8, implying a potential upside of 19 7% from the current price of HKD 100 1 [2][3] Core Views - Anta Sports' 3Q24 sales performance fell short of market expectations, with both Anta and Fila brands underperforming Anta brand sales grew by mid-single digits, while Fila sales declined by low-single digits [2] - Despite the weak 3Q24 performance, the company has not revised its full-year 2024 sales guidance, with management expressing confidence in achieving the targets due to strong sales during the National Day holiday [2] - The report highlights Anta's continued brand strength, driven by store upgrades and expansion into new e-commerce channels like Douyin, as well as its multi-brand strategy [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 69 369 million, representing an 11 2% YoY growth, while core net profit is forecasted at RMB 12 064 million, up 17 9% YoY [3][5] - Gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 62 8% in 2024E, with operating margin projected at 24 0% [5] - The report slightly revised down the 2024E revenue and profit forecasts due to a more conservative outlook for 4Q24 [2] Brand Performance - Anta brand's 3Q24 sales grew by mid-single digits, outperforming domestic competitors, while Fila's sales declined by low-single digits, with its core product line remaining flat [2] - Descente and Kolon maintained strong growth momentum in 3Q24, continuing their high growth rates from the first half of the year [2] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with Anta brand at 4-5x and Fila close to 5x, allowing stable retail discounts [2] Market and Industry Context - The report notes that Anta Sports remains one of the fastest-growing brands in China's sportswear industry, benefiting from its multi-brand strategy and strong brand positioning [2] - The company's performance during the National Day holiday was driven by its new offline store formats, such as Anta Champion stores and Super Anta, which capitalized on the surge in tourism and consumption [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 119 8 is based on a 22x 2025E P/E multiple, reflecting improved market sentiment and liquidity in Hong Kong, as well as expectations for further stimulus policies [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for Anta's stock price: optimistic (HKD 149 8), base case (HKD 119 8), and pessimistic (HKD 95 8), with probabilities of 25%, 55%, and 20%, respectively [13]

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浦银国际研究 浦银国际 策略月报 浦银国际月度资金流 策略月报 | 投资策略 浦银国际月度资金流：资金面拐点 或已出现，高贝塔股受青睐 全球资金仓位调整中，中国市场获大幅增持。 由于美联储降息靴子 落地，8 月 29 日至 9 月 25 日，大部分主要股票市场均录得净流入， 美股和印度股市仍较获资金青睐。值得注意的是，9 月 26 日至 10 月 2 日当周，由于中国政府出台多个重磅经济刺激政策，叠加中东紧张 局势升级，驱使全球资金开始调整仓位，大幅净流入中国市场，并净 流出美国、日本等股市（图表 1-2）。 资金加速净流入新兴市场。9 月，资金净流入发达市场 485.6 亿美元， 净流入新兴市场扩大至 165.6 亿美元，新兴市场股价跑赢发达市场 5%。 值得注意的是，9 月 25 日至 10 月 2 日期间，资金开始从发达市场流 入新兴市场，新兴市场净流入 154.8 亿美元，而发达市场净流出 106.1 亿美元（图表 4）。我们预计在短期全球资金调仓中，那些估值较低、 拥挤度较低、盈利预期改善的新兴市场股市有望吸引较多资金流入。 外资强势回流中国市场。 根据 EPFR，8 月 29 日至 9 月 25 ...

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浦银国际研究 主题研究 | 宏观经济 浦银国际 主题研究 货币政策宽松已到位， 财政刺激将如何发力？ 货币政策宽松已到位，财政刺激 将如何发力？ 核心观点：我们预计接下来政策刺激还将继续加码，尤其是在财政和房 地产领域。（1）财政政策上，预计在 10 月下旬召开的全国人大常委会会 议或会宣布增发2-3万亿元特别国债用于刺激消费和化解地方债务风险。 在促消费方面，政府或考虑推出税收或社保方面的优惠政策，帮助居民、 尤其是中低收入群体，增加可支配收入以支持消费。大规模设备更新和 消费品以旧换新政策措施也有进一步扩容空间。在稳投资方面，我们相 信加快超长期特别国债和地方政府专项债的发行以及扩展其使用范围 或仍是政策重点之一。此外，国家发改委有望推出更多储备项目以稳定 基建投资。（2）房地产政策上，在中央政治局会议罕见提出"要促进房 地产市场止跌回稳"的具体要求之后，我们相信房地产调控政策、尤其 在供给端，将继续发力。中央层面提供更多以及更便宜的资金支持收购 房企存量房仍是扭转此轮房地产下行周期的关键所在。收购房企存量土 地的政策细节也值得关注。（3）货币政策上，四季度除了已经预告的 25- 50 个基点降准之外，我 ...

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浦银国际研究 行业点评 | 医药行业 浦银国际 行业点评 医药行业点评 医药板块近期点评：市场情绪显著提振， 建议后续关注创新药、高值耗材 近期医药股走势回顾：过去两周医药板块涨幅近 25%。近期医药板 块跟随大盘明显反弹，9 月 24 日至 10 月 3 日间，MSCI 中国医药指 数上涨 25.3%、港股恒生医疗保健指数上涨 24.7%、恒生生物科技指 数上涨 24.2%、A 股中信医药指数上涨 28.9%，分别跑赢同期大盘 （vs 恒生指数上涨 21.2%、沪深 300 指数上涨 25.1%）。 涨幅前 3 的医药子板块分别为互联网医疗、医疗服务、CXO。9 月 24 日-10 月 3 日间，各医药子板块中表现最好的板块为医疗服务、 互联网医疗、CXO，分别录得 54%、51%、42%的涨幅；其次，连锁 药店、医疗器械、中药分别实现 35%、34%、26%的涨幅；涨幅较小 的板块为制药、医药流通、生物科技，分别录得 24%、23%、19%的 板块涨幅。 医药板块涨幅较大，主要系近期宏观政策推动。我们认为医药板块 此轮大涨中能跑赢大盘的主要由于医药板块前期跌幅较深（截至 9 月 23 日，MSCI 中国医 ...

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