Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huazhong Microelectronics (688396.CH) [3] Core Views - Huazhong Microelectronics is expected to experience significant growth in 2025 driven by several factors: 1) Rapid growth in downstream new energy vehicle demand, 2) Expansion into third-generation semiconductors, including SiC and GaN, 3) Release of capacity from two 12-inch production lines in Chongqing and Shenzhen [3][2] - The company is focusing on high-value-added businesses in automotive electronics, industrial control, and new energy sectors, while balancing organic growth with mergers and acquisitions [1][2] - The AI server power supply market is experiencing strong demand, with the power supply accounting for approximately 3% of the server's value, leading to an increase in efficiency and power density [2] Summary by Sections Company Strategy - Huazhong Microelectronics is expanding its production capacity in Chongqing (power devices) and Shenzhen (integrated circuits) to enhance its product offerings in automotive electronics, industrial control, and new energy [1] - The company plans to invest CNY 700 million in mask-related capital expenditures by 2025, with a planned capacity of 5,000 wafers per month for its mask project [1] Market Trends - The demand for AI server power supplies is expected to grow further due to the rising need for domestic computing power, benefiting Huazhong Microelectronics' high-performance semiconductor power devices [2] - The smart electric vehicle business is rapidly growing, with Huazhong Microelectronics providing comprehensive solutions across various automotive applications, which will be a key growth driver in 2025 [2]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 安踏（2020.HK）：4Q24 流水好于市场 预期，2024 全年业绩确定性提升 1 月 8 日收市后，安踏公布了 4Q24 的运营数据，整体流水表现好于市 场预期。我们认为 Fila 4Q24 流水表现环比大幅改善有望缓解市场对 Fila 增速放缓的担忧，从而刺激股价短期回升。基于稳定的库销比以 及稳健的折扣水平，我们认为公司 2024 年全年的业绩已基本确定，且 基本符合我们之前的预测。尽管 2025 年依然充满挑战，但我们认为安 踏有望通过持续的门店升级以及产品的调整来实现品牌力的进一步提 升，从而录得高于同业的流水增长。维持安踏"买入"评级。 如何展望 2025 年？尽管中国运动服饰行业整体需求在 2025 年依然 面临压力，但安踏品牌依然是国产玩家中增长趋势最好的品牌之一。 这归功于公司管理层积极对线下门店进行改造和升级，同时对抖音等 新兴电商渠道进行布局，从而大幅提升了安踏的品牌力。Fila 短期增 速回暖（尤其是潮牌在 4Q24 的大幅反弹）令我们对 Fila 在 2025 年的 表现有更强的信心。Descente 及 Kolon 预计在 2025 年有望 ...

科技行业 | 行业追踪 发改委"两新"政策解读：政策预期 落地，静待基本面催化 1 月 8 日，国家发改委和财政部发布《关于 2025 年加力扩围实 施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》。 1 月 8 日，国家发改委和财政部发布《关于 2025 年加力扩围实 施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（简称"通知"）。 其中，新能源汽车和智能手机相关政策预期落地，有望提振和刺 激这两大电子消费品的终端需求。这在我们新能源车行业以及科 技行业的 2025 年展望中均有提及。 在新能源车方面，通知提出，扩大汽车报废更新支持范围并完善 汽车置换更新补贴标准。国四排放标准燃油车纳入报废补贴，在 保持补贴金额不变的情况下，补贴范围变大。同时，汽车转让换 购同样有补贴支持，新能源车最高 1.5 万元，燃油车最高 1.3 万 元（图表 1）。 在智能手机方面，通知提出，将以旧换新政策延伸至手机、平板 电脑和智能手表等三类数码产品。按产品销售价格的 15%给予补 贴，每件补贴不超过 500 元。单件销售价格不超过 6,000 元，一 人一类最多一件（图表 2）。 投资建议： 1）从新能源车行业来看，补贴政策更多是去 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a slight increase in the target price to $26.5 USD / HK$41.3 [1][5][16] Core Insights - The sale of non-core assets from Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals is expected to generate significant cash flow, which will be directed towards the development of the Antibody-Drug Conjugate (ATTC) platform. The company announced a cash sale of 45% of Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals for $608 million, with a pre-tax gain of $477 million expected over three years. This transaction is anticipated to be completed by the end of Q1 2025, leaving the company with a 5% stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals [5][6][8] - The ATTC platform has two preclinical candidates, with the first expected to enter clinical trials in the second half of 2025. The ATTC technology uses small molecule targeted drugs as payloads, which may overcome traditional chemotherapy resistance and allow for long-term administration [5][6][8] - The New Drug Application (NDA) for Savolitinib as a second-line treatment for EGFR mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has been submitted and is under priority review, with approval expected within the year. The company anticipates positive outcomes from ongoing studies and collaborations with AstraZeneca for further submissions in the U.S. [5][6][8] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenues and net profits for the upcoming years are as follows: - Revenue: $426 million in 2022, projected to increase to $978 million by 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.1% [7][9] - Net Profit: A loss of $361 million in 2022, expected to turn into a profit of $275 million by 2025, and $116 million by 2026 [7][9] - The report indicates a slight increase in the 2025 estimated net profit to $270 million, primarily due to the one-time gain from the sale of Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals [5][6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 27.1, indicating a potential upside of 23.3% from the current price of RMB 22.0 [2][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience strong growth in 2025, driven by multiple business segments including increased component value from new models of major clients, rapid expansion in Android customer base, and growth in non-smartphone sectors such as home appliances and automotive [7]. - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the AI wave in consumer electronics, reinforcing its status as a leading player in the sector [7]. - Financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 89.8 billion in 2025, representing a 31% year-on-year increase [3][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast (2022-2026E): - 2022: RMB 46.7 billion - 2023: RMB 54.5 billion - 2024E: RMB 68.4 billion - 2025E: RMB 89.8 billion - 2026E: RMB 102.4 billion - Net Profit Forecast (2022-2026E): - 2022: RMB 2.4 billion - 2023: RMB 3.0 billion - 2024E: RMB 4.0 billion - 2025E: RMB 5.1 billion - 2026E: RMB 5.8 billion - Projected Gross Margin: - 2022: 19.2% - 2023: 16.6% - 2024E: 17.8% - 2025E: 16.9% - 2026E: 16.6% [3][10][12]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning different P/E ratios to various business segments, leading to a target price of RMB 27.1 based on a projected P/E of 26.5x for 2025 [12][13].

宏观经济 | 政策解读 大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新 政策再次升级 核心观点：设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策再次升级，扩容政策支持 范围，这将有助于制造业投资和消费的持续改善。我们预计此轮设备 更新和消费品以旧换新的整体资金支持或高于去年的 3000 亿元，而 后或根据经济情况择机加码。我们相信其他政策支持近期亦会跟进 以稳增长和促通胀：在货币政策上，尽管降息空间短期或有所减小， 但我们认为央行或在农历春节前降低存款准备金率 25-50 个基点。在 央行今年年初连续两次提及"择机降准降息"的情况下，我们亦不能 排除本月再次同时降准降息的可能性。去年 12 月起房产销售数据尚 可，政策短期内重点或继续聚焦此前已预告政策的落实以及成效观 察。特朗普上任在即，如果关税战进展快于我们预期，那么国内政策 支持或亦会提早加码，尤其在支持出口企业方面。 1 月 8 日，国家发改委和财政部发布《关于 2025 年加力扩围实施大 规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（简称"通知"），相关 政策得以再度升级。这与我们此前经济展望报告中的预期相一致。 扫码关注浦银国际研究 金晓雯，PhD，CFA 首席宏观分析师 xiaowen ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent (700 HK) with a target price of HKD 500, implying a potential upside of +22% from the current price of HKD 409 4 [4][7] Core Views - The inclusion of Tencent in the US Department of Defense's 1260H list is seen as having limited fundamental impact on the company, as its core business is concentrated in China with low reliance on US technology and markets [7] - Short-term market sentiment may face pressure due to potential negative impacts on overseas cooperation and international business development, especially with rising geopolitical uncertainties [7] - Tencent is expected to actively address the situation, similar to its previous successful appeal against the WeChat ban in the US [7] - The company's leading position remains strong, with improving profitability, and the focus for 2025 will be on the progress of WeChat's e-commerce ecosystem as a new growth driver [7] Financial Analysis and Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 554 552 million in FY22 to RMB 758 304 million in FY26E, with a CAGR of 7 0% [3][8] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 115 649 million in FY22 to RMB 250 348 million in FY26E, with a CAGR of 17 0% [3][8] - The adjusted target P/E ratio is forecasted to decline from 20 1x in FY24E to 17 0x in FY26E [3][8] - Key profitability ratios such as gross margin, operating margin, and adjusted net margin are expected to improve steadily over the forecast period [8] Market Expectations and Scenarios - The report presents three scenarios for Tencent: - Base case target price: HKD 500 - Optimistic case target price: HKD 537 (20% probability) - Pessimistic case target price: HKD 320 (20% probability) [15][16] - The optimistic scenario assumes better-than-expected performance in gaming and advertising, while the pessimistic scenario assumes weaker gaming performance and video monetization [15][16] Industry Coverage - The report covers major internet companies in China and globally, including Alibaba, JD com, Pinduoduo, NetEase, Bilibili, Meituan, and Kuaishou, among others [18] - Most companies in the coverage universe have "Buy" ratings, reflecting the analyst's positive outlook on the internet sector [18]

Group 1 - The report highlights the strong resilience of the US economy, which has led to a significant inflow of funds into US stocks, indicating a "siphoning effect" from other markets [3][4][5] - From November 28 to December 25, 2024, US stocks saw a net inflow of $34.88 billion, while most other major stock markets experienced net outflows [4][5] - Developed markets attracted more funds compared to emerging markets, with a net inflow of $60.22 billion into developed markets during the same period, while emerging markets saw a net outflow of $1 billion [5] Group 2 - Foreign capital outflow from the Chinese market has slowed down, with a total of $3.56 billion net outflow recorded from November 28 to December 25, 2024, compared to a larger outflow of $9.74 billion in the previous comparable period [14][15] - Domestic capital saw a significant monthly net inflow of $5 billion into the Chinese stock market during the same period, although there was a net outflow of $340 million in the following week [15][21] - The report notes that foreign capital has continuously net flowed into the Hong Kong stock market for seven consecutive months, with a net inflow of $550 million from November 28 to December 25, 2024 [21][22] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Southbound capital flow into Hong Kong stocks has decreased, but the trading volume share has slightly increased, with Southbound capital accounting for 23.6% of the daily trading volume in December [25][29] - Defensive sectors such as financials, information technology, and telecommunications have seen significant net inflows, while the materials sector recorded a net outflow [32][34] - High-dividend stocks, particularly in the financial, telecommunications, and energy sectors, have attracted Southbound capital, with notable interest in leading companies like China Mobile and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [34][35]

Macroeconomic Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but significantly revised down its rate cut expectations for next year[1] - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) raised economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, while lowering unemployment rate expectations to 4.2% and 4.3%[1] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2024 and 2026 were raised by 0.2 percentage points, with the 2025 forecast at 2.5%, slightly above the 2.4% prediction[1] Interest Rate Projections - The Fed's forecast for rate cuts next year was halved to two cuts of 25 basis points each, with the median rate for 2025 adjusted up by 50 basis points to 3.9%[1] - The median rate for 2026 and 2027 was also raised to 3.4% and 3.1%, indicating a prolonged easing cycle until 2027[1] Economic Concerns - The Fed's optimism regarding the economy and labor market may be overly optimistic, with unemployment rising to 4.246% and expected to face upward pressure[1] - Economic growth is projected to slow from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025, primarily supported by consumer spending[1] - Risks include slow rate cuts potentially leading to recession and inflation risks from potential policy changes under the next presidential administration[1]