浦银国际研究 主题研究 | 宏观经济 浦银国际 宏观经济 哈里斯经济政策愿景渐清晰， 对美国影响几何？ 扫码关注浦银国际研究 宏观主题研究：哈里斯经济政策 愿景渐清晰，对美国影响几何？ 哈里斯的选举获胜概率已超越特朗普，美国大选结果仍扑朔迷离。8 月 22 日，哈里斯在民主党代表大会中正式接受总统候选人提名，并 发表演讲。民调结果显示哈里斯的支持率自 8月初起已经超过特朗普， 在摇摆州支持率亦保持领先。然而目前其民调支持率或正处在蜜月期， 其政策主场能否经受住市场和总统竞选人辩论考验仍不得而知。9 月 10 日哈里斯和特朗普的首次正面交锋值得期待，美国大选将鹿死谁手 仍不得而知。 哈里斯的经济政策主张将如何影响美国经济？哈里斯主张"机会经 济"，竞选的重点被放在降低居民生活成本和壮大中产阶级。1）在控 制物价方面，她提议的物价管控政策颇具争议，或对经济产生负面影 响且并不一定可以有效抑制通胀。2）在财政税收政策上，她提出了较 为激进的针对中低收入群体的减税计划，但将提高高收入群体和企业 的税率。基于她若上任大概率两院分裂的基本情况，这些主张或得以 实现。若能实现，这些政策或适当推升经济增速和通胀，但影响或小 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for WuXi Biologics (2269.HK) and lowers the target price to HKD 18.5 from HKD 20 [2][8]. Core Views - The company's 1H24 revenue is broadly in line with expectations, but the adjusted net profit is below expectations due to lower gross margins and higher SG&A expenses. The company maintains its guidance for 2024, expecting high single-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted net profit [2][8]. - The report highlights that the preclinical revenue is growing the fastest, with a 9.2% YoY increase, driven by a recovery in early-stage biopharma financing in Europe and the US. The late-stage clinical revenue also shows a positive trend with an 11.7% YoY increase [2][8]. - The impact of the Biosecurity Act on new project signings has been limited, primarily affecting client decision-making timelines rather than the number of new projects [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue was RMB 85.7 billion, a 1% increase YoY, while adjusted net profit was RMB 22.5 billion, down 20.7% YoY. The gross margin was 39.1%, down 2.9 percentage points YoY [2][10]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 26.2%, down 7.2 percentage points YoY, attributed to declining gross margins and increased SG&A expenses [2][10]. Revenue Breakdown - By revenue type, preclinical revenue grew 9.2% YoY, while early clinical revenue saw a slight decline. Late-stage clinical revenue recorded an 11.7% increase YoY [2][10]. - The report anticipates accelerated growth in all clinical stages in the second half of the year, with significant contributions expected from new project signings [2][10]. Market Outlook - The company expects to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 5% for the full year 2024, with a target adjusted net profit margin that may face challenges due to overseas operational costs [2][10]. - The report notes that North America remains the fastest-growing region for revenue, with a 27.5% YoY increase, while China experienced a decline of 20.9% YoY [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Ping An Good Doctor (1833.HK) and adjusts the target price to HKD 11.4, indicating a potential upside of 14% from the current price of HKD 10.0 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - In 1H24, the company achieved profitability, exceeding market expectations, but revenue growth remains weak, primarily driven by improvements in expense ratios rather than revenue increases. The C-end business continues to drag on revenue growth due to strategic adjustments, with C-end revenue share dropping to 13% [2][3]. - The F-end (financial clients) showed stable growth with a 3% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 1.12 billion, while the B-end (enterprise clients) experienced strong growth, with a 59% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 710 million, driven by ARPU growth [2][3]. - The report highlights that the company is close to returning to positive revenue growth, with a focus on improving profit margins and expense ratios, aided by digitalization and AI [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company reported a revenue of RMB 2.09 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, with a gross margin stable at 32.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders turned positive at RMB 56.65 million, compared to a loss of RMB 53 million expected by the market [2][3][5]. - The report projects a gradual recovery in revenue, with expectations of a 10% growth in 2025 and 15.9% in 2026 [3][5]. Client Segments - The F-end revenue growth is attributed to the continued exploration of client resources within the Ping An Group, with a 7% increase in paid users to 14.8 million in 1H24. The penetration rate for F-end clients is estimated at 6%, indicating significant long-term growth potential [2][3]. - The B-end client segment saw a 59% increase in revenue, with a focus on high-quality enterprises and cross-selling of "Health Check+" products [2][3]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for clearer signals regarding the timing of revenue recovery and profit margin expansion. The target price adjustment reflects a 2.3x multiple on the projected 2025E P/S [2][3][10].

公司研究 | 医疗行业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|-------------------| | 浦银国际研究 \n公司研究 \| 医药行业 | | | | | | | | | | 诺诚健华（ 9969.H ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 快手科技（1024.HK）：利润优于预期， 电商增速放缓 利润优于预期：公司 2Q24 收入人民币 309.75 亿元，同比增长 11.6%， 高于市场预期 2.0%；得益于收入结构优化，毛利率同比提升 5.1pp 至 55.3%；调整后净利润 46.79 亿元，高于市场预期 7.8%；调整后净利 润率同比提升 5.4pp 至 15.1%，创历史新高。国内收入 299 亿元，同 比增长 9.5%，经营利润 45 亿元，经营利润率提升至 15%；海外收入 11 亿元，同比增长 141%，经营亏损 2.8 亿元，亏损率收窄至 25.7%。 公司中期目标调整后净利率达到 20%。 流量稳定增长，外循环广告加速增长：2Q24 公司 DAU 3.95 亿，同比 增长 5.1%，MAU 达到 6.92 亿，同比增长 2.7%，日均使用时长 122 分 钟，总流量同比增长 9.5%。二季度，广告业务收入 175 亿元，同比 增长 22%。其中内循环广告稳健增长，外循环广告收入增长显著，主 要受传媒资讯、电商平台和本地生活等行业驱动。依靠外循环增长拉 动，我们预计公司三季度广告收入同比 ...

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 唯品会（VIPS.US）：增长压力仍存 收入符合指引，利润维持相对稳定。公司 2Q24 收入人民币 269 亿元， 同比下降 3.6%，符合先前指引（265 亿-279 亿元），主要受高基数及 消费情绪偏弱影响。2Q24 GMV 为 506 亿元，同比持平，其中服装品 类表现良好，标品较弱；订单量同比下降 7.5%至 1.98 亿，活跃买家 数同比下降 3.1%至 4,430 万。活跃 SVIP 会员数同比增长 11%，贡献 线上消费的 40%。毛利率保持高位，2Q24 同比提升 1.4pp 至 23.6%， 调整后净利率同比下降 0.5pp 至 8.1%。 三季度仍保持谨慎，加大股东回报。由于消费情绪低迷，公司对三季 度指引保持谨慎，预计 3Q24 收入人民币 205 亿-216 亿元，对应同比 下降 10%至 5%。三季度至今，服装品类 GMV 略有下降，非服装品类 GMV 下降幅度更大，主要是由于行业补贴水平较高，但公司补贴政 策相对克制。展望下半年，公司将继续稳固服装品类优势，并促进 SVIP 用户增长，提高消费频次及订单价；对于标品品类，公司目标逐渐企 稳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18, representing a potential upside of 37% from the current price of HKD 13.12 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's 2Q24 revenue reached RMB 4.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48%, aligning with expectations. Adjusted net profit was RMB 660 million, exceeding market expectations by 4%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of vacation business [2]. - The core OTA segment showed steady growth, with a transaction volume of RMB 62.3 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year, driven by an increase in ARPPU. The average monthly paying users slightly increased by 0.7% to 42.5 million. Core OTA revenue was RMB 3.53 billion, a 23% year-on-year increase, with an operating profit margin of 24.3% [2]. - International business remains a strong growth driver, with international hotel night volume increasing by 140% and international ticket volume by 160% year-on-year in 2Q24. The company expects continued strong growth in international business, which currently accounts for less than 5% of total revenue [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue forecast for FY24E is adjusted to RMB 17.3 billion, with FY25E projected at RMB 20.1 billion. The adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 2.56 billion, increasing to RMB 3.02 billion in FY25E [3][6]. - The financial model indicates a gradual improvement in profit margins, with the adjusted net profit margin expected to rise from 14.8% in FY24E to 16.2% in FY25E [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 38.15 billion in FY24E to RMB 47.79 billion in FY25E, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [7].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 浦银国际 公司研究 10. 5 11. 5 12. 5 13. 5 14. 5 15. 5 16. 5 归创通桥 （2190.HK） 归创通桥（2190.HK）：1H24 业绩亮眼， 首次实现 IFRS 及经调整口径全面盈利 公司 1H24 收入继续维持高增长，并同时在 IFRS 及经调整口径下首次实 现盈利，整体业绩表现亮眼。毛利率受集采降价影响有所下滑，预计毛 利率随着集采扩围继续承压，但集采带来的规模效应将逐步体现，叠加 经营效率提升，我们预计公司核心营业利润率将由 1H24 的 6%提升至 2026 年 15%。维持"买入"评级，略升目标价至 16.4 港元。 1H24 业绩亮眼，首次实现 IFRS 及经调整口径全面盈利。1H24 年收入 同比+59%至人民币 3.7 亿元（vs 业绩预告：>3.6 亿元）；毛利率-2.9pcts 至 71.3%，主要受到集采降价以及公司主动对未集采产品调价以获得 更大市场份额的影响；归母净利同比扭亏为盈至 6,887 万元（vs 业绩 预告：>5,000 万元）；经调整净利 7,817 万元（vs 1H23：亏损 552 万 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Huazhu Group, with a target price adjusted to HKD 28.0 and USD 35.4, reflecting potential upside of 26.7% and 27.8% respectively [2][3][5]. Core Insights - In Q2 2024, despite facing high base effects, Huazhu Group achieved revenue growth at the upper end of its guidance, with total revenue reaching RMB 6.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [2]. - The domestic RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for Huazhu Group decreased by 2% to RMB 244, but the company outperformed the market, with occupancy rates improving by 0.7 percentage points [2]. - The report highlights an increase in operational efficiency, leading to a gross margin improvement of 2.3 percentage points, despite a rise in operating expense ratios due to expansion [2]. - The company has raised its store opening guidance, achieving its strategic goal of 10,150 domestic stores, with 567 new openings in Q2 2024 [2]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in revenue growth for Q3 2024 due to higher base effects, but believes the company can still meet its revenue guidance [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 23.87 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [9]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is estimated at RMB 3.91 billion, reflecting a slight decrease of 4.3% compared to the previous year [9]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including EBITDA margins and return on equity metrics, indicating a positive trend in profitability despite market challenges [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US/9868.HK) with a target price of $8.5, representing a potential upside of 26% for the US stock, and a target price of HKD 33.2 for the Hong Kong stock, indicating a potential upside of 23% [6][10]. Core Insights - Xpeng Motors is set to enter a strong product cycle with the upcoming launch of the MONA series M03, which has already surpassed pre-sale orders compared to the previous year's G6 model. The company expects to deliver over 20,000 units in September following the M03 launch, with a record delivery volume anticipated in Q4 2024 [6][14]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 improved to 14.0%, marking a continuous improvement over four quarters. This is attributed to cost reductions through technology advancements and supply chain reforms, alongside rapid growth in overseas business [6][14]. - The company has established a strategic partnership with Volkswagen, which will see jointly developed EE architecture in domestic Volkswagen models starting in 2026. Xpeng aims to provide near Level 3 autonomous driving experience by the second half of 2025 [6][14]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 40,042 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31%. The gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 13.0% for 2024, improving to 15.0% in 2025 and 17.0% in 2026 [8][15]. - The company reported a net loss of RMB 6,016 million for 2024, with a significant reduction in losses expected in subsequent years, reaching a profit of RMB 1,746 million by 2026 [8][15]. - The report indicates that Xpeng's valuation is currently attractive at 0.8x, which is considered low compared to historical levels [6][14].