浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 安踏 （2020.HK） 安踏（2020.HK）：1H24 净利润超预期，预计 多品牌战略将持续驱动收入增速高于行业 安踏 1H24 核心净利润（不包括 Amer 上市带来的一次性收入）同比增 长 29%，高于我们预期，主要归功于毛利率显著提升且销售费用率低 于预期。尽管外部环境充满挑战，但安踏主品牌的品牌力持续提升、 Fila 品牌力依然保持稳健、其他品牌维持高速增长、公司整体基本面 持续向好。公司宣布将在未来 18 个月使用不超过 100 亿港元回购公 司股票，体现了董事会对公司长期基本面较大的信心。我们认为公司 多品牌全球化策略以及管理层强大的品牌运营能力将为公司注入持续 的增长动力，确保高于行业的收入增速。基于 16x 2025 P/E，我们得到 新的目标价 89.6 港元，维持安踏"买入"评级以及运动服饰行业首选。 管理层 2024 全年业绩展望强于同业：管理层表示安踏主品牌进入下 半年以来的流水表现符合预期，且 8 月趋势较好。因此，公司依旧维 持安踏主品牌 2024 全年流水双位数增长目标不变。Fila 整体流水面 临挑战，因此管理层将 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 25 20 15 10 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | 02/2024 05/2024 | | | 、浦银国际 | | | 扫码关注浦银国际研究 | | 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 | | 林闻嘉 首席消费分析师 richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠，CFA 消费分析师 serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 2024 年 8 月 28 日 海底捞（6862.HK）：品牌力与翻台率保持 强劲，但五大担忧令我们维持谨慎态度 在餐饮行业面临较大挑战的情况下，海底捞 1H24 翻台率同比大幅提升 至 4.2x，毛利率同比扩张 1.7 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.6, indicating a potential upside of 9% from the current price of RMB 17.0 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown stable growth in Q2, with revenue reaching RMB 1.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%. The net profit for the same period was RMB 552 million, up 13% year-on-year [2][9]. - The growth drivers for the company include the momentum from Apple's iPhone, expansion in the assembly business for Android smartphones, new business increments from AI PCs, and automotive electronics [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 28% in 2024 and 16% in 2025, supported by a relatively restrained capital expenditure [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2024 revenue: RMB 1.34 billion, up 29% YoY, down 14% QoQ [9]. - Q2 2024 gross margin: 16.4%, down 0.4 percentage points YoY, up 3.9 percentage points QoQ [9]. - Q2 2024 operating profit: RMB 696 million, up 59% YoY, up 29% QoQ [9]. - Q2 2024 net profit: RMB 552 million, up 13% YoY, up 79% QoQ [9]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 3% in 2024, 17% in 2025, and 24% in 2026 [4][8]. Business Outlook - The company is focusing on the stable growth of metal glass structural components and aims to capture market opportunities with the launch of AI smartphones in the second half of the year [2][4]. - In the PC segment, the company plans to provide components and systems for AI PCs, while in the automotive sector, it aims to enhance collaboration with major clients to increase the value per vehicle for new products next year [2][4]. - Overall, the second half of the year is expected to be a peak season for the market, with multiple business lines contributing to operational and growth momentum [2][4].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a target price of HKD 23.6, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 18.82 [5][8]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's two main business segments, smartphones and AIoT, along with its electric vehicle (EV) sector, are experiencing stable and strong growth trends. The smartphone segment continues to show good growth in both domestic and international markets, particularly in high-end smartphones, which supports IoT product growth and accumulates high-end user bases for its internet services [5]. - The EV segment has reported a gross margin of 15.4%, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by delivery volume exceeding expectations, supplier support, and contributions from automotive peripheral products. Overall, Xiaomi's products in smartphones, EVs, and IoT are positioned for long-term growth potential [5]. Business Segment Summaries - **Smartphones**: Expected shipment volume for 2024 is projected to reach 166 million units. The smartphone gross margin is anticipated to bottom out in Q3 2023 due to rising upstream costs, with a recovery expected in Q4. Strategies focusing on high-end, globalization, and new retail are being effectively implemented [5]. - **IoT**: Multiple product categories, including major appliances, are showing strong growth, with gross margins expected to remain high. Xiaomi is expanding its IoT product categories through internal research and development strategies [5]. - **Internet Services**: This segment benefits directly from the growing user base of smartphones and IoT, particularly high-end users, leading to scale effects that are likely to maintain high gross margins [5]. - **Electric Vehicles**: The successful launch of the Xiaomi SU7 has laid a solid foundation for new models in the coming year. The EV segment's gross margin is expected to improve further in Q3 and Q4 2023 as delivery volumes continue to rise [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 341.017 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 20.263 billion, reflecting a 5% increase year-on-year [7][14]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a steady increase in revenue and profit margins over the next few years, with significant growth expected in 2025 and 2026 [12][14].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 九毛九 （9922.HK） 九毛九（9922.HK）：短期翻台率难见起 色，门店扩张恐受限，下调至"持有" 公司 1H24 各个主品牌的线下客流都面临较大的压力，翻台率大幅下滑。 客单价下降与翻台率下滑带来显著的经营负杠杆，导致门店经营利润率 恶化。管理层决定采取更审慎的开店策略，并下调 2024 年的开店指引。 我们预计 2H24 翻台率仍将持续承压，且不排除公司进一步下修开店指 引，甚至较大规模关店的可能。基于宏观经济及餐饮行业短期较大的不 确定性，我们抱着谨慎的态度下调九毛九至"持有"评级，并下调目标 价至 2.81 港元。 主要品牌翻台率预计持续承压：我们此前预计公司 1H24 主动下调 太二与怂火锅的客单价有望吸引更多客流，从而抵御餐饮行业需求 下滑的影响。然而，太二及怂火锅 1H24 的翻台率同比皆录得大幅下 降，且 2Q24 低于 1Q24。管理层表示 7-8 月暑期旺季的客流依然较 弱，预计 3Q24 的同店销售下降幅度与 2Q24 相近，但 4Q24 有望在 低基数下边际改善。公司 2H24 将减小折扣力度，更聚焦产品的质 量，希望通 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 浦银国际 公司研究 立讯精密 （002475.CH） 立讯精密（002475.CH）：享受苹果 AI 上行红利，汽车通讯高速成长 重申立讯精密的"买入"评级，上调目标价至人民币 45.1 元，潜在 升幅 19%。 重申立讯精密的"买入"评级：立讯精密二季度净利润同比增长 25%， 公司预计三季度增长 20%左右。我们预期立讯今年利润同比增速为 23%，明年将继续保持 20%的增长。这主要得益于大客户组装利润 释放以及汽车、通讯两个业务板块的高速成长。立讯有望受益于苹 果进入 AI 智能手机的行业红利，明后两年的消费电子板块依然有 稳定增长空间。同时，立讯在汽车业务板块布局汽车线束、智能座 舱等 Tier 1 业务；在通讯板块，借助电连接器等强势产品，公司在 AI 服务器的成长也有较大空间。公司目前股价对应 20x 2024E PE， 我们预期公司仍有较大上行空间，重申"买入"评级。 二季度业绩亮眼，三季度指引稳定增长：在今年二季度，立讯收入 环比下降 2%，同比增长 7%。毛利率为 12.7%，环比增长 1.9 个百 分点，同比增长 1.4 个百分点。今年上半年，消费电子 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sunny Optical Technology (2382.HK) with a target price of HKD 57.0, indicating a potential upside of 20% [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a solid recovery in the smartphone business driven by a resurgence in demand, improved camera specifications, and a more favorable competitive landscape, which is expected to lead to a strong profit recovery [1]. - The automotive business is projected to provide stable growth, while the XR business is anticipated to return to a growth trend, contributing to an optimistic outlook for the next two years [1]. - The report forecasts a 112% year-on-year increase in net profit for the current year, supported by a low base effect [1]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - Expected stable shipment volume for camera modules this year, with average selling prices increasing by 10%-15% year-on-year and gross margins improving to 6%-10% in the second half of the year [1]. - Anticipated 5%-10% year-on-year growth in smartphone lens shipments, with gross margins expected to improve from 20% to 20%-25% [1]. Automotive Business - Projected 10%-15% year-on-year growth in automotive lens shipments, with stable gross margins around 40% [1]. - The company has a backlog of orders worth RMB 10 billion for automotive modules, with expected revenue of RMB 2 billion for the year [1]. XR Business - The revenue growth forecast for the XR business has been raised to 25% for the year [1]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target P/E ratios of 17x for smartphone camera modules, 17x for smartphone lenses, 36x for automotive lenses, and 25x for other businesses, leading to a target price of HKD 57.0 [1].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|------------------------------| | | 宏观观点 \n杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会点评：鲍威尔 | 金晓雯， PhD ， CFA 首席宏观分析师 | | | | 基本确认 9 月降息 | xiaowen_jin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6437 | 浦银国际 | | | 美东时间 8 ...