大浪淘沙 革故鼎新 ——电力设备与新能源行业 2024 年中期策略 报告要点: 新能源汽车销量保持快速增长,中游材料价格降幅收窄 今年国内推行以旧换新等政策继续支持新能源产业的发展,1-5 月我 国新能源汽车销量达到 389.5 万辆,同比增长 32.5%;在渗透率方面, 新能源汽车占比稳步提升到 33.9%,5 月份渗透率已达到 39.5%;出 口方面,我国新能源汽车凭借全企业链技术以及规模优势,出口快速 增长;根据中汽协数据,1-5 月我国新能源汽车累计出口 51.9 万辆, 同比增长 13.7%;动力电池产业格局稳定,头部企业凭借丰富的产品 类型,强大的技术储备以及规模化的生产能力,纷纷加快海外布局步 伐,海外营收占比快速提升。中游行业受供需缓解价格下滑的影响, 盈利处于低位;产业增加停产检修力度,缩减资本开支,加速低端产 能去化;2024 年以来,材料价格降幅大幅度收窄,行业利润有望见底。 光伏:N/P 迭代持续加速,逆变器和大储环节竞争格局稳固 1)自春节以来电池片和组件排产改善显著,主要系国内外项目陆续开 工叠加海外去库加速,行业中长期终端需求旺盛、成长趋势明确。N 型 替代 P 型的进程不断加快 ...

推荐|维持 端侧智能加速落地,政策赋能新兴赛道 ——2024 年计算机行业半年度策略 报告要点: 上半年计算机行业资本市场表现较差,估值水平调整较为充分 从年初到 2024 年 6 月 26 日收盘,计算机(申万)指数下跌 22.96%, 显著跑输上证指数、沪深 300、创业板指、科创 50 指数等。从技术发 展的角度来看,国内外 AI 大模型能力不断迭代更新,软硬件配套逐步 完善,打开手机、PC 等端侧的 AI 应用空间。从政策角度来看,今年 政府工作报告中两次提到量子技术,低空经济产业规划加快落地,各 地紧密开展"车路云一体化"应用试点,板块仍有较多的投资机会。 截至 2024 年 6 月 26 日收盘,剔除负值后,计算机(申万)指数的 PE TTM 为 34.75 倍,较年初显著回落。我们认为,计算机行业的科技与 成长属性赋予其较高的估值溢价,从历史数据来看,目前计算机板块 的估值水平处于合理区间,具备较好的长期投资价值。 AI 行业创新加速,端侧智能快速落地,未来成长空间广阔 AI 大模型的快速发展推动了生成式 AI 应用的爆发。AI PC 是 AI 大模 型、软件应用和硬件设施的综合体,通过云端与本 ...

行业迎来发展新机遇,看好创新与出海 ——医药行业 2024 年半年度策略报告 报告要点: 三季度医药板块业绩有望恢复,看好创新和出海 从业绩角度来看,2023 年三季度医药行业反腐力度达到最大,医药板 块单季度业绩较差,目前反腐逐步常态化,2024 年三季度医保板块业 绩有望迎来恢复。从估值角度来看,经过三年时间调整,目前医药板 块估值水平(TTM)约为 35 倍。在医药行业集采、常态化反腐和鼓励 创新等大的政策背景下,我们认为具备创新和出海能力的企业有望迎 来长期成长。 创新药支持政策持续加码,国内新药商业化浪潮来袭 国家和地方政府多部门陆续发布了各项创新药产业发展支持政策,从 药品开发阶段的创新和开发方向的引导、临床研究和上市申请阶段的 加快审评审批的支持,到药品上市后商业化阶段的医保支付支持、 DRG 控费除外支付支持、商业健康保险助力和国谈药品院外零售渠道 的医保支付试点等等,全产业链式的全面支持创新医药产业的发展。 药品集中带量采购也逐渐消化了很多传统药企的存量业务影响,建议 关注传统药企存量业绩即将或已消化、创新品种即将迎来收获或待商 业化放量的标的;Biotech 和 Biopharm 中建议关 ...

聚焦算力,拥抱 AI 大时代 ——通信行业 2024 年半年度策略 报告要点: 2024H1 通信行业业绩整体稳健,光和运营商仍是重要增持方向 2024Q1,申万通信行业收入及归母净利润同比分别实现 4.5%/7.5% 的正增长,对比规模以上工业企业营业收入及利润总额同比增速 2.3%/4.3%,呈现强韧性。涨跌幅分析方面,AI 硬件仍是核心主线, 亦是 Q1 主动权益型基金的主要增持方向。 算力硬件需求持续兑现,运营商派息率指引乐观 光模块:高速率需求量显著增长;速率代际的迭代加快;LPO、CPO 等降成本、功耗的新结构亦在稳步推向市场。同时,随着 Sora、 ChatGPT-4o 等应用的陆续推出,推理侧算力需求占比提升,未来随 着用户量的增长及参数量的扩大,推理侧算力需求有望持续增长。 交换机:IB 协议由于源生的 RDMA 技术,从而天然的具有低时延高 性能的特征,在 AI 训练侧有更好的应用。而推理侧的需求方面,具有 成本及开放性优势的 RoCE 协议或将更占优。同时,国产算力链的迭 代亦将为国内以太网产业链供应商创造增量空间。 运营商:5G 建设进入中后期,运营商资本开支预计将一定程度收缩, 叠加 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Haopeng Technology with a "Buy" rating, citing significant undervaluation based on projected PE ratios of 22.4x, 8.3x, and 6.0x for 2024-2026 [1][26] Core Views - Haopeng Technology, established in 2002, has evolved into a leading consumer battery supplier with core businesses in pouch lithium-ion batteries, cylindrical lithium-ion batteries, and nickel-metal hydride batteries [1][7] - The company achieved revenue of 4.541 billion yuan in 2023, a 29.53% YoY increase, with Q1 2024 revenue reaching 994 million yuan, up 34.19% YoY [1] - The AIPC revolution is expected to drive demand, with global AIPC shipments projected to reach 48 million units in 2024, accounting for 18% of total PC shipments [1] - The global tech consumer goods industry is forecast to return to positive growth in 2024, with an estimated 3% increase in overall market size [1] Business Strategy - The company has established strong partnerships with global brands including HP, Dell, MSI, Acer, Asus, Microsoft, Sony, BYD, and Xiaomi [1][22] - Its strategic focus on major clients provides stable orders and high entry barriers, ensuring sustained high-quality development [1] - Haopeng Technology has diversified its product portfolio across multiple applications, including laptops, smartphones, personal care devices, and wireless speakers [1][33] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 2.071 billion yuan in 2019 to 4.541 billion yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 21.69% [23] - Net profit margin is expected to improve as capacity consolidation nears completion, with projected net profits of 151 million, 408 million, and 563 million yuan for 2024-2026 [26] - The company's gross margin remained stable at 19.24% in 2023 and 19.11% in Q1 2024 [23] Industry Outlook - The AIPC replacement cycle and economic recovery are expected to drive growth in the consumer battery market [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the AIPC revolution and the recovery in downstream demand [26] Valuation Comparison - Haopeng Technology's 2024-2026 PE ratios of 22.39x, 8.29x, and 6.01x are significantly lower than industry peers such as Zhuhai CosMX (21.22x, 14.46x, 10.99x) and Sunwoda (21.36x, 16.35x, 13.68x) [38]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a neutral target price of 101 RMB and an optimistic target price of 126 RMB for the next six months [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing price of niche DRAM due to the exit of major overseas manufacturers from the DDR3 market, with a price increase of 20% already observed in Q1 2024 and expected to continue until 2025 [1][12]. - The health of Nor Flash inventory is improving, leading to price increases driven by supply-demand mismatches, particularly as demand from consumer electronics stabilizes and server shipments are projected to grow in H2 2024 [1][12]. - Demand for SLC NAND is anticipated to rise, with the company expanding production to meet orders from domestic major clients, thus enhancing its market share [2][12]. - The automotive sector is expected to recover, with the introduction of new MCU products aimed at AI applications, although short-term demand remains weak [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Valuation - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 5,761 million RMB, with a growth rate of -29.1%. By 2024, revenue is expected to rise to 7,436 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 29.1% [3][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to recover significantly from 161 million RMB in 2023 to 1,097 million RMB in 2024, marking a growth rate of 580.7% [3][20]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 385 in 2023 to 57 in 2024, indicating a significant improvement in valuation [3][20]. Company Overview - The company is a leading semiconductor manufacturer in China, specializing in memory products, MCUs, and sensors. It ranks as the second-largest global supplier of Nor Flash and the top supplier of 32-bit Arm MCUs in China [39][40]. - The company has been transitioning from a consignment model to its own DRAM products, which is expected to enhance profitability as production scales up [39][43]. Market Dynamics - The exit of major players from the DDR3 market is creating a supply gap, which is expected to drive prices higher, providing a significant opportunity for the company to capture market share [1][30]. - The demand for Nor Flash is projected to grow significantly due to advancements in AI servers and automotive applications, with an estimated market size of 215 billion RMB by 2025 [28][30]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the recovery in the semiconductor market as inventory levels normalize and demand increases across various sectors [15][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [7][20]. Core Insights - Donghua Testing is a leading provider of structural mechanics performance research and electrochemical workstation solutions in China, with a focus on intelligent measurement and control systems since its establishment in 1993 [2][25]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 21.3% for revenue and 4.7% for net profit from 2021 to 2023. In Q1 2024, revenue and net profit increased by 45.16% and 165.70% year-on-year, respectively [3][15]. - The PHM (Predictive Health Management) market is rapidly developing, with significant growth potential in both military and civilian sectors. The market size is projected to grow from 3.578 billion yuan in 2021 to 16.137 billion yuan by 2026, at a CAGR of 36.48% [2][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Donghua Testing specializes in four main product lines: structural mechanics performance testing systems (58.68% of 2023 revenue), structural safety online monitoring and defense equipment PHM systems (18.03%), intelligent maintenance management platforms based on PHM (6.32%), and electrochemical workstations (15.36%) [3][25]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit for 2023 were 378.19 million yuan and 87.75 million yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +3.03% and -27.94%. The forecast for 2024-2026 anticipates revenues of 611.63 million yuan, 810.67 million yuan, and 1.026 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 175.89 million yuan, 248.66 million yuan, and 315.32 million yuan [5][52]. Market Potential - The company is well-positioned to expand in both military and civilian markets, particularly in the PHM sector, which is expected to see increased penetration across various industries, including aerospace and civil engineering [4][26]. Product Development - The six-dimensional force sensor, crucial for humanoid robots, is currently in small-scale trial production. The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growth of the humanoid robot market as this technology matures [2][16].

行业比较跟踪:库存周期面临拐点 核心观点: 5 月工业企业利润累计同比增速略微下滑至 3.4%,当月同比来到一个偏 低的位置(0.7%),宏观上,近些年的工业企业利润的波动要领先于 PPI,近 半年来,工业企业利润背离于 PPI 的趋势而持续放缓,这可能意味着,我们 要警惕一轮工业需求的意外下滑。 钢铁相关行业的利润增长速度仍然很高,甚至黑金采掘业的利润还在加 快,这应源于地产在周期意义上出清之后,对黑金的负面影响逐步消失,此 外,大规模设备更新也有一些重要贡献。目前来看,涉及大规模设备更新的行 业利润表现都相当亮眼,比如金属制品,机械和设备修理业。 环保仍然是今年的主线,废弃资源利用业的利润由负转正(12.5%),且 其利润增长速度攀至两年来新高。 海外需求和出海主题相关的行业利润似有反复,比如纺织行业和化纤行 业的利润增长速度略微回落至 24.5%和 197.7%,但从大势上判断,海外需求 的拐点短期应难以见到,因此,这些行业的利润反复可能仅属短时波动。 资源行业的利润表现仍然不错,比如有色金属冶炼加工增速进一步扩大 (80.6%),但从更灵敏的一些指标和迹象看,商品周期的这一轮上行可能面 临结束,因此, ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 101 RMB under neutral conditions and 126 RMB under optimistic conditions [2][10][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the exit of major overseas manufacturers from the DDR3 market, leading to a price increase in niche DRAM products. The company has shifted towards its own DRAM production, which is anticipated to enhance gross margins [2][11]. - The recovery of Nor Flash inventory and supply-demand mismatch is expected to drive product price increases. The demand for Nor Flash is projected to rise due to the recovery in consumer electronics and the increasing capacity requirements in various applications [2][11][19]. - The demand release for SLC NAND is expected to boost prices, with the company expanding production to meet orders from domestic major clients [3][11]. - The automotive sector is anticipated to recover, with the introduction of new MCU products aimed at artificial intelligence applications [12][28]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic Changes - The exit of major players from the DDR3 market is creating a capacity gap, leading to price increases for niche DRAM. The company has been reducing its reliance on DRAM agency sales since launching its own brand in 2021, which is expected to improve gross margins [2][11]. - The Nor Flash market is experiencing a recovery in inventory levels, with demand expected to rise in the second half of 2023 and into 2024, driven by various applications including automotive and consumer electronics [2][11][19]. - The company is expanding its SLC NAND production to capture market share from domestic clients, leveraging its competitive pricing and performance [3][11]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 7,436 million RMB in 2024, representing a growth rate of 29.1% compared to 2023. The net profit is expected to reach 1,097 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 580.7% [4][10]. - The report provides a valuation of 77x for optimistic scenarios and 62x for neutral scenarios, with corresponding target prices of 126 RMB and 101 RMB [4][10][11]. Company Overview - The company is a leading semiconductor manufacturer in China, specializing in memory products such as NOR Flash, SLC NAND, and DRAM. It ranks as the second-largest NOR Flash manufacturer globally and the top supplier of 32-bit ARM MCUs in China [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [25][59]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of structural mechanics performance research and electrochemical workstation solutions in China, with a focus on intelligent measurement and control systems [10][18]. - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a CAGR of 21.3% from 2021 to 2023, and a significant increase in Q1 2024 revenue and net profit [4][11]. - The PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) market is rapidly expanding, and the company is well-positioned to capture opportunities in both military and civilian sectors [30][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in four main product lines: structural mechanics performance testing systems (58.68% of 2023 revenue), structural safety online monitoring and defense equipment PHM systems (18.03%), intelligent maintenance management platforms based on PHM (6.32%), and electrochemical workstations (15.36%) [3][10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.04 billion and a net profit of 0.27 billion in Q1 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 45.16% and 165.70%, respectively [4][11]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2024 were 67.27% and 26.20%, showing improvements compared to the previous year [4][11]. Market Potential - The PHM market in China was valued at 3.578 billion in 2021 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 36.48% to reach 16.137 billion by 2026, indicating significant growth potential [30][24]. - The company is also developing six-dimensional force sensors, which are expected to benefit from the growth of humanoid robots, positioning it for future market opportunities [12][24]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 6.12 billion, 8.11 billion, and 10.26 billion, with corresponding net profits of 1.76 billion, 2.49 billion, and 3.15 billion, reflecting strong growth rates [18][25].