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贵州茅台:收入增速符合预期,系列酒增速明显
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 11:30
3 19, 909 授资收益 137, 841 16, 904 16, 900 87 46, 502 133 47, 206 272, 700 利润总额 30,532 0 应付票据 0 0 应付账款 4, 665 4, 140 0 111, 007 14.126 87.071 5, 213 79.08 主要财务比率 流动负债合计 16. 6% EBIT增长率 19. 5% 12. 2% 346 16. 8% 74, 734 18, 756 99.576 其他应付款 EPS (按最新股本排序) 一年内到期的非流动负债 其他流动负债 32, 381 54, 647 2023 2026E 咸长您力 0 营业收入增长率 0 0 346 346 14. 4% 346 归最公司净利润增长率 19. 2% 負債合计 英利您力 246, 432 92.0% 7.988 19.089 52. 6% 294, 384 33. 7% 257, 676 33. 4% 负债和股东权道 355,509 48. 3% 偿债您力 18. 0% 17. 2% 债务权益比 0.2% 波动比率 4. 9 5.3 3.7 4. 1 学运使力 0. ...
当前经济与政策思考:战略腹地与关键产业备份的海外经验之二:“911”事件引发的美国产业备份重点与成效
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 10:00
National Preparedness Strategy - The "911" event significantly impacted the U.S. economy and national security, leading to the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security and the issuance of Homeland Security Presidential Directives (HSPD) focusing on supply chain security and national preparedness[4] - HSPD-8 emphasized the need for a national emergency preparedness framework, aiming to enhance the ability to prevent, defend against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from threats[4] Key Infrastructure Redundancy - HSPD-7 identified 17 critical infrastructure sectors, emphasizing the need for redundancy to reduce vulnerability to terrorist attacks[5] - The National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) further detailed the importance of redundancy in infrastructure, with examples like the New York City subway system and Los Angeles water systems[6] - The Smart Grid R&D Program aimed to enhance grid redundancy and reliability, with microgrids playing a key role in backup power systems[6] Data Backup and Disaster Recovery - Post-"911," the U.S. government provided $5 billion in disaster loans and $7.4 billion in grants to support data recovery and cybersecurity improvements[7] - The Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA) mandated federal agencies to implement data backup and disaster recovery plans[8] - The U.S. data backup industry saw significant growth, with American companies dominating the global market for dedicated backup appliances (PBBA)[11] Medical and Biological Defense - The Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) was established to store medical resources, with funding increasing from $51 million to $400 million by 2005[9] - The SNS played a critical role in responding to major health crises, such as Hurricane Katrina and the COVID-19 pandemic, deploying millions of vaccines and medical supplies[14][16] Industry Backup Outcomes - Redundancy in critical infrastructure proved effective during emergencies, such as Hurricane Michael and the COVID-19 pandemic[11] - The U.S. data backup industry grew significantly, with American companies holding over 80% of the global PBBA market share from 2012 to 2017[11] - The SNS successfully managed multiple large-scale health emergencies, including deploying over 27,000 tons of supplies during COVID-19[16]
策略周刊:海外衰退交易对A股市场影响几何?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 09:00
海外衰退交易对 A 股市场影响几何? 证券研究报告/策略周刊 2024 年 8 月 10 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 分析师:徐驰 执业证书编号:S0740519080003 投资要点 Email:xuchi@zts.com.cn ◼ 一、海外衰退交易对 A 股市场影响几何? 本周 A 股呈现震荡回调走势。市场层面,A 股受外围市场情绪影响出现下跌,并 进入震荡走势。整体来看,当前 7 月政治局会议后的消费等刺激政策的预期,以 及美国制造业与就业数据下衰退与美联储连续降息的预期是市场波动的主因。 海外因素方面,当地时间 8 月 6 日,美国民主党全国委员会宣布,副总统哈里斯 以及明尼苏达州州长沃尔兹已经正式接受提名,成为 2024 年大选民主党总统和 副总统的候选人。根据 RCP 预测,沃尔兹接受提名成为民主党副总统候选人 后,哈里斯当选概率出现明显上升,当前已经超过特朗普。我们预计后续中欧贸 易摩擦进一步升级的风险或阶段性降低。另外,本周美国非制造业 PMI 小幅超 预期且初请失业金人数低预期,有效降低了市场对于美国衰退的担忧。叠加中东 地缘风险实质上小于市场预期,我们 ...
【中泰电子】AI全视角-科技大厂财报专题|联咏24Q2点评:Q3手机备货需求回升
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 06:00
证券研究报告 2024年8月9日 【中泰电子】 AI全视角 - 科技大厂财报专题| 联咏24Q2点评:Q3手机备货需求回升 分析师: 王芳 S0740521120002 杨旭 S0740521120001 王九鸿 S0740523110004 1 目 录 1、24Q2表现:收入高于指引中值,毛利率超预期 2、各下游表现:Q2 TV需求较好,Q3手机备货需求回升 3、台股DDIC公司Q2表现:主要公司收入呈现环比正增长 4、展望:Q3收入环比增长,毛利率承压 5、投资建议&风险提示 2 1、24Q2表现:收入高于指引中值,毛利率超预期 ◼ 24Q2收入高于前期指引中值,SOC业务表现好于驱动IC业务 ➢ 收入:252.31亿新台币,同比-16.7%,环比+3.3%,高于前期指引的收入区间244-255亿新台币的中值; ➢ 分产品线:驱动IC收入143.18亿新台币,同比-25.9%,环比-1.5%;SOC收入106.68亿新台币,同比-3.5%,环比+12.1%。 图表:季度收入、yoy和qoq(百万新台币) 图表:季度营收构成 营业收入 yoy qoq 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50 ...
计算机行业点评报告:新型电力系统三年建设节奏明确,电改进一步提速
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 06:00
、 新型电力系统三年建设节奏明确,电改进一步提速 计算机 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024 年 8 月 9 日 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|---------------------------------| | [Table_Main] 评级:增持( 维持 ) | [Table_Finance]重点公司基本状况 | | 分析师:闻学臣 | | | 执业证书编号:S0740519090007 | | Email:wenxc@zts.com.cn [投资要点 Table_Summary ] ◼ 8 月 6 日,国家发改委、国家能源局、国家数据局联合印发《加快构建新型电力系统行 动方案(2024—2027 年)》(以下简称《方案》)。 ◼ 本次《方案》聚焦近期新型电力系统建设亟待突破的关键领域,选取典型性、代表性方 案进行探索,提升电网对清洁能源的接纳、配置、调控能力,并提出 2024-2027 年 9 项专项行动,从源网荷储多个角度为未来三年电力系统建设工作明确了方向与节奏。具 体来看: | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
上海能源:主业高成长将落地,绿能转型持续深化
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 05:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Invest Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on high growth in its main business while deepening its green energy transformation [1][4] - The coal business has significant growth potential, with expected production capacity increases and new projects in the pipeline [25][27] - The integration of thermal and green energy development is promising, with substantial growth in electricity generation [29][31] Summary by Sections 1. Main Business and New Energy Development - The company is primarily coal-based but is exploring new energy development, leveraging its advantageous geographical location and existing resources [4][9] - It has a complete coal-electricity-aluminum transportation integrated industrial chain, with a current coal production capacity of 9.09 million tons per year [4][25] - The company is actively pursuing transformation, utilizing resources from mining subsidence areas for solar energy projects [4][29] 2. Growth Potential in Coal Business - The company has significant coal reserves and is expanding its production capacity, with new mines expected to come online soon [25][27] - The Xinjiang mining area is projected to increase the company's coal production capacity by 23.39%, potentially exceeding 10 million tons in sales [4][25] - Long-term projects, such as the Tangjiahe coal mine and the Nanchuanhe coal mine, are in the approval stage, indicating further growth potential [27] 3. Integration of Thermal and Green Energy - The company has a total thermal power capacity of 820MW and is expanding its renewable energy projects, including a solar power station with a capacity of 132MW [29][31] - In 2023, the company achieved a 24.47% year-on-year increase in electricity generation, highlighting the effectiveness of its integrated energy strategy [29][31] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of 113.09 billion, 117.52 billion, and 129.12 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 8.02 billion, 8.87 billion, and 10.41 billion yuan [1][6] - The company has a low price-to-book ratio of 0.7, indicating undervaluation and potential for valuation recovery [5][6]
中炬高新:改革阵痛期,期待成效兑现
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 05:30
改革阵痛期,期待成效兑现 [评级Table_Title] :买入(维持) 市场价格:19.80 80分析师: 熊欣慰 执业证书编号:S0740519080002 电话:021-20315733 Email:xiongxw@ zts.com.cn 分析师:范劲松 执业证书编号:S0740517030001 Email:fanjs@zts.com.cn 分析师:晏诗雨 执业证书编号:S0740523070003 Email:yansy@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------| | 总股本(百万股) | 783 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 771 | | 市价(元) | 19.80 | | 市值(百万元) | 15,508 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 15,266 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 1 中炬高新(600872.SH)_点评报告: 业绩超预期,改革红利兑现 2 中炬高新(600872.SH)_点评报告: 三年战略规划落地,再造一 ...
华大九天:阶段性因素影响营收增速,全年展望仍乐观
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 05:30
[Table_Title] 评级:增持(维持) [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 798 1,010 1,328 1,723 2,186 增长率 yoy% 37.8% 26.6% 31.5% 29.7% 26.9% 净利润(百万元) 186 201 60 152 327 增长率 yoy% 33.2% 8.2% -70.3% 156.0% 114.3% 每股收益(元) 0.34 0.37 0.11 0.28 0.60 每股经营现金流(元) 0.82 0.46 0.13 0.33 0.68 净资产收益率 4.0% 4.2% 1.3% 3.2% 6.5% P/E 225 208 700 273 128 P/B 9 9 9 9 8 P/S 52 41 31 24 19 备注:股价选取 8 月 9 日收盘价 市场价格:76.73 分析师:闻学臣 执业证书编号:S0740519090007 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 543 流通股本(百万股) 262 市价(元) 76.73 市值(百 ...
盐津铺子:短期盈利承压,势能依旧向上
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 05:30
短期盈利承压,势能依旧向上 [Table_Title] 评级:买入(维持) [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 2,894 4,115 5,323 6,610 8,073 增长率 yoy% 27% 42% 29% 24% 22% 净利润(百万元) 301 506 666 851 1,070 增长率 yoy% 100% 68% 32% 28% 26% 每股收益(元) 2.34 2.58 3.40 4.34 5.46 每股现金流量 2.17 3.39 7.87 3.97 8.91 净资产收益率 26% 35% 32% 29% 27% P/E 35.1 20.9 15.9 12.4 9.9 P/B 9.3 7.3 5.1 3.7 2.7 备注:股价选取 2024 年 8 月 8 日收盘价 市场价格:38.6 元 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 274 流通股本(百万股) 246 市价(元) 38.60 市值(百万元) 10,591 流通市值(百万元) 9,488 盐津铺子(002847.S ...
2024年7月进出口数据解读:出口拐点尚未显现
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-08-11 03:30
[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/月度报告 2024 年 8 月 9 日 出口拐点尚未显现 ——2024 年 7 月进出口数据解读 [Table_Summary] 要点 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师:张德礼 执业证书编号:S0740523040001 ◼ 2024 年 7 月,中国以美元计价的出口当月同比为 7.0%,低于市场预期的 9. 5%,较前值 8.6%亦有回落;进口当月同比 7.2%,较前值-2.3%大幅回升;贸 易顺差为 846.47 亿美元,较前值 990.47 亿美元收窄,主因进口增速大幅提 高。环比来看,7 月我国以美元计价出口环比为-2.3%,环比表现季节性偏 弱,2022、2023 年对应的 7 月环比分别为 1.25%、-0.92%。 ◼ 7 月出口景气度有所回落,主要受海外经济体需求趋弱、欧美部分关税落地 等、红海危机对供应链形成扰动等影响。7 月全球制造业 PMI 为 49.7,是近 7 个月来首次跌破荣枯线,欧美 7 月落地的部分关税政策或对出口形成一定 扰动,全球供应链压力指数(GSCPI)在 7 月已连续第三个月回升。 ◼ 分产品 ...