九典制药（300705.SZ）/化学 制药 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 08 月 25 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/月度报告 2024 年 8 月 26 日 公共财政支出开始提速 ——2024 年 7 月财政数据解读 [Table_Summary] 要点 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 ◼ 2024 年 1-7 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比-2.6%，较前值跌幅收窄 0.2 个 百分点。从当月同比来看，2024 年 7 月，全国一般公共预算收入 19750 亿 元，同比增速为-1.9%，较前值-2.6%降幅收窄。分中央和地方看，7 月中央 一般公共预算收入同比为-2.3%，前值-10.0%；地方一般公共预算本级收入 同比增速由正转负，从 6 月的 2.5%下降至-1.5%。 ◼ 分税种来看，四大税种均对税收收入形成拖累。增值税、消费税、企业所得 税、个人所得税当月同比分别为-2.8%、-3.2%、-4.9%、-4.6%，前值分别为 -2.5%、4.5%、-26.8%、-4.0%。增值税同比降幅稍有走阔，主要受去年同期 基数较高、政策翘尾减收等因素影响。消费税同比由正转负，除去年基数较 高之外，可 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report provides an investment recommendation for the new round of power system reform, focusing on addressing the issue of new energy consumption. Specific companies to watch include **Dongfang Electronics**, **Guoneng Rixin**, **State Grid Information & Communication**, **Langxin Group**, **Hengshi Technology**, and **HengHua Technology** [2] Core Views - The new round of power system reform is driven by the dual-carbon goals, which have led to a rapid increase in the proportion of new energy installations and generation. By the end of 2023, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power accounted for 36% of the total national power generation capacity, with further growth expected [2] - The reform aims to address the instability and uncertainty brought by the growth of new energy output, focusing on two main directions: **physical guarantees** (e.g., expanding ultra-high voltage and distribution network construction) and **market-oriented measures** (e.g., promoting power auxiliary services, capacity pricing, and virtual power plants) [2] - The reform is expected to enhance the market-oriented operation of the power system, encouraging more social resources to participate in the power market and support the consumption of new energy [2] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of China's Power System Reform - China's power system reform has evolved through several stages since the 1980s, transitioning from a semi-closed, centralized system to a more open, diversified, and competitive market-oriented system [1] - The reform has followed a logical sequence of "opening—diversification—competition—market—regulation—improvement," promoting the formation of a power market and the rapid development of the industry [1] 2. Current Power System and Market Status - The current power system faces challenges due to the high growth of new energy installations, which has increased the instability and uncertainty of the power grid [2] - The reform is expected to focus on enhancing the physical infrastructure (e.g., ultra-high voltage and distribution networks) and market mechanisms (e.g., power auxiliary services and virtual power plants) to better integrate new energy into the grid [2] 3. Future Directions for Power System Reform - The new round of reform will focus on addressing the issue of new energy consumption, with a particular emphasis on market-oriented solutions such as power auxiliary services, capacity pricing, and virtual power plants [2] - The reform will also aim to enhance the flexibility and stability of the power grid through the construction of ultra-high voltage and distribution networks [2] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the new round of power system reform, particularly those involved in power grid construction, power auxiliary services, and new energy integration [2] 5. Historical Context of Power System Reform - The power system reform has gone through several phases since the 1980s, including the introduction of market-oriented mechanisms, the separation of power plants and grids, and the establishment of a competitive power market [5][7][9] - Key milestones include the establishment of the State Power Corporation in 1997, which marked the transition from a planned economy to a market-oriented system [13] 6. Challenges and Opportunities in the Current Power System - The current power system faces challenges such as tight supply-demand balance and the need to integrate a high proportion of new energy sources [73][76] - The reform aims to address these challenges by enhancing the flexibility and stability of the power grid and promoting market-oriented solutions for new energy integration [2][73]

[Table_Title] 评级：买入(维持) 市场价格：9.60 元 分析师：祝嘉琦 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 电话：021-20315150 Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn 分析师：谢木青 执业证书编号：S0740518010004 电话：021-20315895 Email：xiemq@zts.com.cn 分析师：于佳喜 执业证书编号：S0740523080002 Email：yujx03@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------| | 总股本(百万股) | 1,881 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,616 | | 市价(元) | 9.60 | | 市值(百万元) | 18,054 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 15,515 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 2023-042023-052023-062023-062023-072023-082023-082023-092023-102023-102023-112023-1220 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yuyue Medical (002223.SZ) [2][3][4] Core Views - Yuyue Medical's performance in the first half of 2024 showed steady revenue growth driven by new products and channel expansion, despite a year-on-year decline in net profit [2][3] - The company is expected to recover its traditional business and continue to grow in emerging sectors, with a projected revenue increase of 16% from 2024 to 2026 [2][4] Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2022: 7,102 million CNY - 2023: 7,972 million CNY (12% growth) - 2024E: 8,759 million CNY (10% growth) - 2025E: 10,111 million CNY (15% growth) - 2026E: 11,662 million CNY (15% growth) [2][3] - **Net Profit**: - 2022: 1,595 million CNY - 2023: 2,396 million CNY (50% growth) - 2024E: 2,069 million CNY (-14% decline) - 2025E: 2,405 million CNY (16% growth) - 2026E: 2,799 million CNY (16% growth) [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 2.39 CNY - 2024E: 2.06 CNY - 2025E: 2.40 CNY - 2026E: 2.79 CNY [2][3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022: 16% - 2023: 20% - 2024E: 15% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 15% [2][3] Business Performance - The respiratory treatment segment remains stable despite a high base effect, with a notable performance in nebulizer products and home ventilators [2][3] - The diabetes care segment, particularly Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) products, is experiencing rapid growth, with market share increasing significantly [2][3] - The company is focusing on optimizing product performance to meet core user needs, which is expected to drive future growth in the respiratory treatment business [2][3] Market Position - Yuyue Medical's market capitalization is approximately 32.69 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 30.61 billion CNY [2][3] - The company is leveraging its brand strength as a domestic leader to expand its market presence both domestically and internationally [2][3]

8 收入质量提升，新业务保持较好增长 天融信（002212）/计算机 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 25 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|----------|-------------------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） \n市场价格： 4.27 | [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 | | 2022A 2023A 2024E | | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：闻学臣 | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,543 | 3,124 | 3,616 | 4,122 | 4,643 | | | 增长率 yoy% | 6% | -12% | 16% | 14% | 13% | | 执业证书编号： S0740519090007 | 净利润 | 2 ...

[Table_Industry] 世纪天鸿(300654.SZ)/传媒 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 08 月 26 日 世纪天鸿：营收利 润 稳步 增 长， 推 动 AI+教育产品 快 速落 地 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_Industry] [Table_ 评级：增持（维持） Invest] \n市场价格： 7.67 元.62 | [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] \n指标 | \n2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 433 | 507 | ...

Policy and Strategic Industries - The report focuses on the strategic backup of key industries during the Obama administration, emphasizing the need to enhance economic resilience, competitiveness, and global leadership by reducing supply chain dependencies [2] - Key industries targeted during Obama's tenure included manufacturing, energy, cybersecurity, healthcare, education, and technological innovation, covering 9 out of 20 primary sub-sectors under the NAICS classification [2] - Specific measures included reshoring manufacturing supply chains, promoting energy independence, strengthening cybersecurity infrastructure, and enhancing healthcare and education systems [2] - The outcomes included reduced trade deficits in manufacturing, decreased reliance on foreign oil, improved broadband coverage, and advancements in healthcare and education systems [2] Asset Allocation and Market Trends - The report analyzes the sequence of asset market bottoms, highlighting that bond yields typically lead, followed by equities and commodities, based on historical data from the US and China [3] - In the US, the sequence of asset bottoms from 1981 to 2020 consistently followed the pattern of bonds leading, followed by equities and commodities, with exceptions in 2000-2002 [3] - In China, the sequence also aligns with the Pringle cycle, where bond yields lead, followed by equities and commodities, as observed in 2004-2006, 2008-2009, and 2018-2020 [3] - Longer lags between bond and equity market bottoms tend to result in stronger equity market rebounds, as seen in historical US data [3] 3C Equipment and AI Opportunities - The 3C equipment industry has seen stable shipment volumes since 2015, driven by product innovation and upgrades, such as the transition from 4G to 5G and the rise of AI-enabled devices [4] - Equipment manufacturers are heavily influenced by Apple's innovation cycles, with significant performance growth observed during 5G rollouts and AI-driven device adoption [4] - AI-enabled smartphones are expected to drive a new wave of hardware upgrades, with global AI phone sales projected to exceed 590 million units by 2027, accounting for over 50% of total smartphone shipments [4] - Equipment manufacturers are poised to benefit from this innovation cycle, with potential for both earnings growth and valuation re-rating [4] Real Estate Market Trends - China's real estate market showed slight improvement in sales from January to July 2024, with sales area and sales value declining by 18 6% and 24 3% year-on-year, respectively, but with a marginal improvement compared to the first half of the year [5] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a 10 2% year-on-year drop, while new construction starts and completions showed mixed trends, with new starts slightly improving but remaining weak overall [5] - Policy easing, including lower down payment ratios and mortgage rates, is expected to support a gradual recovery in sales, although the market remains weak due to insufficient demand [5] Rural Commercial Banks and Bond Investments - Rural commercial banks have become significant buyers of bonds in the secondary market, driven by a funding gap caused by slower loan growth and declining loan rates [6] - These banks prefer short-term government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit, with a notable shift towards long-term bonds in early 2024, followed by a sell-off in the second quarter [6] - Their investment strategies include a mix of holding for yield (configurational strategy), trading for capital gains (trading strategy), and a hybrid approach for medium to long-term bonds [6] - The behavior of rural commercial banks in bond markets can serve as an indicator of future market trends, with their net buying patterns often preceding shifts in bond yields [6]

哦·[Table_Industry] [Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/宏观策略专题报告 2024 年 8 月 23 日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email:xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email:zhangwy01@zts.com.cn [Table_Report] 相关报告 如何看待下半年政策博弈的聚焦点 证券研究报告/策略周刊 2024 年 8 月 24 日 投资要点 ◼ 一、如何看待下半年政策博弈的聚焦点 本周市场再度呈现承压走势，市场中小盘风格整体表现较差，而大盘价值，特别 是大型国有行表现相对较好。近期公布的 7 月经济金融数据不及预期，使得本周 市场风险偏好再度缩紧，市场资金重新聚焦至红利板块，对其余板块的流动性造 成一定压制。近期下半年进一步举债刺激的预期是近期市场关注的两个焦点所 在。 对于下半年财政政策，我们不排除下半年进一步加大举债的可能性。但与市场预 期的"刺激"所不同，我们认为下半年若出现进一步举债，其方向或只偏向于防 风险，以及推进新质生产力发展。就防风险角度而言，我们认为下半年有可能会 推出新一批国债与特别国债缓解地方财政压力。但是，这种以 ...