Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, and the logic behind high dividends continues to be validated [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 389 million yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.16% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of the year was 136 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.19% [2]. - The gross profit margin remains stable, and the company has a strong order reserve [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast (in million yuan): - 2022: 451 - 2023: 672 - 2024E: 821 - 2025E: 942 - 2026E: 1,079 [2] - Net Profit Forecast (in million yuan): - 2022: 111 - 2023: 219 - 2024E: 279 - 2025E: 340 - 2026E: 399 [2] - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2024E: 1.86 - 2025E: 2.36 - 2026E: 2.88 [2] - Cash Dividend Yield for the first half of the year was 2.9% [2]. Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 34.85 yuan, with a market capitalization of 4,115 million yuan [2]. - The report indicates that the company's stock price has fallen into a favorable range for investment, despite concerns about revenue growth deceleration [2].

1、 暑运高峰来临，经营保持高位 交运/航空机场 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 08 月 10 日 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 评级：增持（维持） | ≈[投资要点 Table_Summary] | | 分析师：杜冲 | n 板块涨跌幅：本周交运板块下跌 2.2%，表现劣于大盘。交运行业细分板块中仅快递指 | | 执业证书编号： S0740522040001 | 数(1.8%) 上涨；跌幅前三的分别为公交指数(-10.0%)、航运指数(-4.9%)、公路指数(- | | 电话： | 4.0%)。航空机场板块中涨幅前三的分别为吉祥航空(3.1%)、海航控股(2.8%)、中国 国 | | | 航(1.1%)；跌幅前三 ...

National Preparedness Strategy - The "911" event significantly impacted the U.S. economy and national security, leading to the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security and the issuance of Homeland Security Presidential Directives (HSPD) focusing on supply chain security and national preparedness[4] - The HSPD-8 directive emphasized the need for a national emergency preparedness framework, aiming to enhance the ability to prevent, defend against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from threats[4] Key Infrastructure Redundancy - The U.S. government strengthened the redundancy of critical infrastructure to reduce dependency on single nodes, particularly in sectors like transportation, energy, and telecommunications[5][6] - The National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) highlighted the importance of redundancy in infrastructure, with examples like the New York City subway system and Los Angeles water systems[6] Data Backup and Disaster Recovery - Post-"911," the U.S. government provided $5 billion in disaster loans and $7.4 billion in grants to support data recovery and cybersecurity improvements for businesses[7][8] - The data backup industry saw significant growth, with U.S. companies dominating the global market for dedicated backup appliances (PBBA), holding over 80% market share from 2012 to 2017[11] Medical Resource Stockpiling - The Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) was established in 2003, with funding increasing from $51 million to $400 million by 2005, to ensure rapid deployment of medical resources during emergencies[9][10] - The SNS played a crucial role in responding to major health crises, such as Hurricane Katrina, the H1N1 flu pandemic, and COVID-19, by providing vaccines, medical supplies, and personal protective equipment[14][16] Microgrid Development - The U.S. smart grid initiative led to the development of microgrids, with 692 microgrids installed by 2023, providing a total capacity of 4.4 GW, though still less than 0.3% of the total U.S. electricity supply[11]

核 心 CPI 为何回落？— —7 月通 胀数据点评 证券研究报告/固定收益点评 2024 年 8 月 9 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 分析师：肖雨 执业证书编号：S0740520110001 Email：xiaoyu@zts.com.cn 研究助理：张可迎 Email：zhangky04@zts.com.cn [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资要点 ◼ 事件：国家统计局公布，2024 年 7 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.5%，环比上涨 0.5%；PPI 同比 下降 0.8%，环比下降 0.2%。我们点评如下： ◼ 7 月 CPI 同比 0.5%（前值 0.2%），高于市场预期值 0.3%。八大项中，除"食品烟酒" 分项同比增速高于前值外，其余分项增速均出现持平或回落。 食品烟酒是 7月份 CPI 回升的主要拉动项。7月份食品烟酒 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，由负 转正。食品 CPI 同比增速为 0%（前值-2.1%），环比增速 1.2%（前值-0.6%），主要受 到猪肉价格涨幅扩大、鲜菜价格由负转正的影响： 1）受猪肉压栏、供给下降影响，7 月份猪肉价格延续上行 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 核工装备深度汇报（一） 核电连续两年核准10台机组，发展春风已至 2024 . 8 . 8 分析师： 陈鼎如 执业证书编号：S0740521080001 Email：chendr01@zts.com.cn 分析师： 殷通 执业证书编号：S0740524040001 Email：yintong@zts.com.cn 核心观点 2 ◆ 产业拐点：华龙一号进入规模化建造，已具备量产及国产化基础 1）能源转型："3060"双碳目标促使我国进行能源转型；2）低碳能源：核电全生命周期碳排放量少、成本低、利用小 时数高；3）增长空间：预计2030年、2035年我国核电装机将分别达到120GW、150GW左右，而截至2024月3月31日，我国 （大陆地区）核电装机容量58.22GW ，尚有增长空间；4）国产化率提升：中国核电自主化进程持续加速，国产化率持续 提升，至福清三期已高达88%，国内产业链公司有望充分受益于核电自主化进程。 ➢ 现状：截止2024年7月26日：核准待开工核电机组8台；选址通过待核准机组13台（含高温 ...

Group 1: Trading Strategies and Market Signals - The report introduces a trading strategy based on the Fibonacci ratio, suggesting to buy stocks that have previously experienced a monthly uptrend when they drop to 0.618 and 0.8 levels, although further refinement of buy point selection is necessary [2] - The securities company index completed a monthly 9-turn sequence signal in July 2024, indicating potential upward market movement, supported by multiple indices showing time resonance [2] - The relative price of the securities company index compared to the bank index reached a new low, indicating extreme undervaluation of the securities sector [2] Group 2: Alcohol Industry Insights - The shift of consumption tax collection to the retail end may compress profits for low-end liquor companies while potentially benefiting high-end brands like Moutai, which can pass tax burdens to consumers [3] - The consumption tax reform is expected to increase industry concentration, as larger enterprises with strong pricing power can better absorb tax impacts compared to smaller firms [3] - The report highlights the need for improved channel management in the liquor industry, especially if tax collection shifts to the retail stage, drawing comparisons to the tobacco industry's regulatory framework [3] Group 3: Natural Rubber Market Analysis - The report outlines ten key questions regarding the natural rubber market, including seasonal price fluctuations and the impact of labor costs on processing profits in Thailand [4] - It discusses the expected upward movement in natural rubber prices, driven by supply-demand dynamics and production capacity changes in Hainan [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with capacity expansion and currently low valuations in the natural rubber downstream sector [4] Group 4: PCB Industry Growth - The report indicates that the AI boom is driving significant growth in the data communication PCB sector, with expected spending on cloud infrastructure reaching $138.3 billion in 2024, a 26.1% increase year-on-year [5] - The demand for PCBs is anticipated to rise due to the upgrade of server platforms and the increasing volume of AI servers, with AI server shipments projected to grow by 38.4% in 2023 [5] - The report highlights the expected growth in the switch and optical module markets, driven by the transition to higher-speed standards like 800G, which will further elevate PCB value [5]

Core View - The strategy proposes a method to determine buy points for stocks that have ended their upward trend and entered a downward trend, using the golden ratio (0.618 and 0.8) as key levels for entry [2] - The strategy incorporates the concept of "Chan Theory" to precisely identify buy points by segmenting price movements rather than relying solely on fixed parameters [2] - From 2015 to June 2024, the strategy executed 1,043 trades with a win rate of 57.8%, a profit-to-loss ratio of 2.26, and a median holding period of 19 trading days [2] Golden Ratio - The golden ratio (0.618) is widely used in technical analysis, with other common ratios including 0.5, 0.382, and 0.809 [4] - These ratios are used as fixed parameters in investment strategies, despite lacking rigorous theoretical foundations [4] Golden Ratio in A-Shares - Historical data from the Shanghai Composite Index shows that after a monthly-level bull market ends, subsequent monthly-level declines often rebound near the 61.8% golden ratio level [5] - For individual stocks with monthly-level declines exceeding 50%, the average rebound level is around 60.6% [5] Strategy Details - The strategy uses logarithmic coordinates and identifies monthly-level highs and lows within a 50-month period to draw an upward trend line [6] - Buy points are determined when the price falls below the 0.618 and 0.8 levels of the trend line, with additional confirmation from MACD indicators [6] - The strategy incorporates grid trading principles and combines monthly and daily level analysis for multi-level resonance [6] Backtest Results - The backtest covers the period from January 1, 2015, to June 30, 2024, and includes all A-shares listed for more than 50 months [7] - Transaction costs are calculated at 3‰, and the strategy excludes ST stocks and stocks that hit the daily limit up [7] - The strategy's performance is relatively insensitive to parameter changes, with win rates ranging from 53.5% to 57.8% across different parameter settings [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.175 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 691 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.21% [2] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in revenue, driven by its leading position in the yeast industry and rapid expansion in overseas markets. The report anticipates improvements in profitability as raw material costs stabilize [2][4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 12,843 - 2023A: 13,581 - 2024E: 14,983 - 2025E: 16,658 - 2026E: 18,461 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: 20% - 2023: 6% - 2024E: 10% - 2025E: 11% - 2026E: 11% [2] - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 1,321 - 2023A: 1,270 - 2024E: 1,366 - 2025E: 1,564 - 2026E: 1,793 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: 1% - 2023: -4% - 2024E: 8% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 15% [2] - Earnings per Share (in yuan): - 2022A: 1.52 - 2023A: 1.46 - 2024E: 1.57 - 2025E: 1.80 - 2026E: 2.06 [2] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2022A: 19.5 - 2023A: 20.3 - 2024E: 18.8 - 2025E: 16.4 - 2026E: 14.3 [2] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2022A: 2.8 - 2023A: 2.6 - 2024E: 2.3 - 2025E: 2.1 - 2026E: 1.9 [2] Key Investment Points - The company's main business of yeast is accelerating, with domestic growth rebounding. The revenue from yeast and deep-processed products in Q2 2024 reached 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.24% [2] - The company is implementing a "one factory, one strategy" approach to enhance product application and maintain stable sales growth across its business units [2] - The report highlights that the company is focusing on maintaining its market share while expanding its overseas business, which is expected to contribute to steady revenue growth [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike-W (2423.HK), with a market price of HKD 34.35 [1]. Core Insights - Beike is the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, leveraging its ACN network infrastructure to efficiently provide various real estate services [4][9]. - The residential market is expanding, with the market size growing from CNY 25.4 trillion in 2016 to CNY 39.6 trillion in 2021, and projected to reach CNY 55.7 trillion by 2026 [25]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of real estate brokerage services, which rose from 43.2% in 2016 to 49.8% in 2021, and is forecasted to reach 61.6% by 2026 [4][28]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the total transaction volume reached CNY 31,429 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, with operating revenue of CNY 777.8 billion, up 28.2% [5][31]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 51.2 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 349.2% [5]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 27.9%, an increase of 5.2 percentage points from the previous year [5]. Business Segments - The company’s core businesses include existing home transactions, new home transactions, home decoration, and emerging businesses, with significant growth in home decoration and rental management [4][31]. - The revenue from existing home transactions grew by 15.9% in 2023, while new home transactions saw a 6.7% increase [31]. - Home decoration and emerging businesses contributed significantly to revenue growth, with their shares rising to 14.0% and 10.8% of total revenue, respectively [5][31]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the company’s net profit will reach CNY 78.1 billion, CNY 99.0 billion, and CNY 112.8 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [5]. - The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14.8x for 2024, 11.7x for 2025, and 10.2x for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [5].

福耀玻璃(600660.SH)/汽车 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 7 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：42.87 元 分析师：何俊艺 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 分析师：刘欣畅 执业证书编号：S0740522120003 Email：liuxc03@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |------------------|---------| | 总股本(百万股) | 2,610 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,003 | | 市价(元) | 42.87 | | 市值(百万元) | 111,880 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 85,869 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 福耀玻璃 沪深300 2023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06 ...