图表 36：美国进入到主动去库尾声后，自中国进口占比多数回升 -30 -20 -10 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 -30 -20 -10 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 93/08 95/09 97/10 99/11 01/12 04/01 06/02 08/03 10/04 12/05 14/06 16/07 18/08 20/09 22/10 % 美国进口中国金额同比 美国名义库存同比（右轴） 美国销售总额增速（右轴） % 2019 年到 2023 年，和防疫直接相关的产品中，仅塑料及制品对中国出口 份额有 0.11 个百分点的提升，其它产品对中国这几年出口份额的影响多是拖累。 可以理解为，防疫物资给中国出口带来的提振，在疫后已基本被消化了。 如下所示: 接下来从国别和她区角度来测算我国 2024 年的出口份额变动。我们通过 对 2023年占比前十的国别和地区近年来我国对英出口的同比表现、近年来驱动 出口表现的主要逻辑,分别对它们 2024年的出口同比进行预测,以此来计算对 我国出口增速的拉动程度,通过出口增速来判断我国出口年内是否保持韧性: 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 | 领 先 | 深 度 | 诚 信 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 房地产泡沫成因与全球房价运行周期 -海外住房市场研究之一 2 0 2 4 . 0 7 . 1 7 由子沛 S0740523020005 youzp@zts.com.cn 李垚 S0740520110003 liyao01@zts.com.cn 核心要点 全球房价运行基本规律:房价长期能够跑赢通胀;过去80年间主要国家房价整体呈现上行趋势; 房价与一个国家地区的经济发展情况强相关;一个国家地区内部往往经济发达的大城市和都市圈 的房价弹性更大,且长期下涨幅高于平均。 驱动房价过高的主要因素:外部冲击、脆弱基本面、内生变化是催生楼市泡沫的主要原因,不同 国家主导因素不同:美国次贷危机前楼市繁荣主要是缺乏监管及信贷宽松;西班牙泡沫来自土地 私有化与长期重购轻租政策导向;爱尔兰楼市问题集中在个人与机构热衷参与房地产投机;阿联 酋楼市过热由外资涌入催生。 主要经济体房地产危机周期:过去50年15个主要发生房地产泡沫经济体房价自高点至底部平均下 行时间为5.44年,中位数4.75年;平均下行幅度-30.5%,中位数-25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [17][30]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance exceeded market expectations, primarily due to the strong sales of the Wei Yi Mei product line, which has achieved over 1 million units sold within 1000 days of its launch [5][8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of products under development, with several gel-based products expected to receive regulatory approval soon, which could positively impact future earnings [6][7]. - The report projects significant growth in revenue and net profit for the coming years, with net profit estimates for 2024 and 2025 raised to 600 million and 850 million yuan respectively, and a new estimate of 1.08 billion yuan for 2026 [7][22]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from 780 million yuan in 2023 to 2.48 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26% [2]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 300 million yuan in 2023 to 1.08 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of around 27% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 3.39 yuan in 2023 to 12.17 yuan in 2026 [2]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 77.14 in 2023 to 13.94 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has expanded its market presence significantly, covering approximately 2,000 medical institutions by the end of 2023, with plans for further expansion [5][23]. - The product matrix continues to grow, with new high-end products being introduced to capture a larger market share, particularly in the anti-aging segment [23]. - The company is enhancing its sales and marketing efforts, focusing on both B2B and B2C channels to strengthen brand recognition and customer loyalty [23].

继峰股份(603997.SH)/汽车 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 7 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|------------------------|-----------|-----------|---------------------------|-----------| | [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） \n市场价格： 10.28 元 | [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] \n指标 | \n2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | 营业收入（百万元） | 17,967 | 21,571 | 24,570 | 28,968 | 33,603 ...

TCL 电子(1070.HK)/家电 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 7 月 17 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级:买入(维持) 市场价格:5.3 元港币 分析师:姚玮 执业证书编号:S0740522080001 Email:yaowei@zts.com.cn 分析师:吴嘉敏 执业证书编号:S0740524060003 Email:wujm@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------| | 总股本(百万股) | 2,521 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,521 | | 市价(港币) | 5.30 | | 市值(百万元港币) | 13,361 | | 流通市值(百万元港币) | 13,361 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% TCL电子 恒生指数 2023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-01 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics with a market price of 5.3 HKD [2][11]. Core Views - The company is on track to achieve its annual targets, with a strong performance in H1 2024 driven by high-end television sales, expansion of innovative businesses, and reduced expense ratios [5][6]. - Revenue is expected to grow by 20%-30% in H1 2024, primarily due to price increases in televisions and rapid growth in innovative business segments [5][6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, leading to significant increases in average selling prices (ASP) and profit growth outpacing revenue growth [6][7]. - The report highlights a strong performance in innovative sectors such as internet services and solar energy, with expectations of stable profit margins [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue (in million HKD): - 2022A: 71,580 - 2023A: 79,111 - 2024E: 89,790 - 2025E: 97,705 - 2026E: 103,401 - Net Profit (in million HKD): - 2022A: 447 - 2023A: 744 - 2024E: 1,350 - 2025E: 1,675 - 2026E: 2,048 - Expected growth rates for net profit: - 2023A: +66% - 2024E: +82% - 2025E: +24% - 2026E: +22% [2][9]. Business Segments - The television segment is expected to see a sales increase of over 20% in H1 2024, with a focus on high-end models and a complete SKU matrix to meet diverse consumer needs [6][7]. - Innovative businesses, including internet services and solar energy, are projected to grow significantly, contributing positively to overall profitability [7]. Market Position - The company is positioned at a valuation bottom with a high margin of safety, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [7]. - The report anticipates that the company will meet its stock incentive target of 1.32 billion HKD for the year, with a robust performance expected in H2 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with stable order growth. The revenue recognition is affected by macroeconomic factors, leading to a year-on-year decline in revenue. However, the company has a sufficient backlog of orders and is expected to achieve its annual operational goals [9][10]. - The company anticipates a revenue of 3.63 billion yuan to 4.15 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 20% to 30%. The net profit is expected to be between 85.136 million yuan and 127.703 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 85% to 95% [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 1,283 - 2023A: 1,347 - 2024E: 1,554 - 2025E: 1,778 - 2026E: 2,048 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: 5% - 2024E: 15% - 2025E: 14% - 2026E: 15% [10]. Profitability Metrics - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 184 - 2023A: 168 - 2024E: 200 - 2025E: 230 - 2026E: 272 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: -9% - 2024E: 19% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 18% [10]. Valuation Ratios - P/E Ratios: - 2023: 30.5 - 2024E: 28.1 - 2025E: 24.4 - 2026E: 20.7 - P/B Ratios: - 2023: 3.6 - 2024E: 3.1 - 2025E: 2.9 - 2026E: 2.6 [10]. Business Development - The company is accelerating its data element business layout, with successful project implementations. The new business model is expected to open new growth opportunities. The company has launched new products in the healthcare sector, enhancing its service capabilities [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][18]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.77-8.08 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25%-30%, and a net profit of 3.91-4.19 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 40%-50% [4]. - The company continues to see strong growth in its core vascular intervention products, with significant quarterly performance improvements driven by new product penetration in various markets [4]. - The acquisition of a 72.37% stake in Optimum Medical Device Inc. is anticipated to enhance the company's competitiveness in the vascular intervention sector and accelerate its expansion into overseas markets [4]. - The company is projected to maintain robust growth with revenues expected to reach 15.10 billion yuan in 2024, 19.19 billion yuan in 2025, and 24.25 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 6.55 billion yuan, 8.35 billion yuan, and 10.51 billion yuan respectively [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s total share capital is 123 million shares, with a market price of 92.61 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of 11,415 million yuan [2]. - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2022A: Revenue 897 million yuan, Net Profit 357 million yuan - 2023A: Revenue 1,187 million yuan, Net Profit 492 million yuan - 2024E: Revenue 1,510 million yuan, Net Profit 655 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue 1,919 million yuan, Net Profit 835 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue 2,425 million yuan, Net Profit 1,051 million yuan [2][4]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 32.0 in 2022 to 10.9 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [2].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) as being under pressure, with expectations for the performance of the IPO "backups" [5] - As of June 30, 2024, the BSE has 249 listed companies with average revenue and net profit of 600 million and 40 million respectively, excluding extreme values [5] - The average market capitalization, trading volume, and dynamic PE ratio of BSE-listed companies show a strong correlation, with three distinct phases observed from November 2021 to 2024 [5] BSE Development Overview - The BSE has seen a total of 28 new IPO applications from June 21 to June 30, 2024, following a four-month period without new listings [5] - The dynamic PE ratios for BSE, ChiNext, and STAR Market as of June 2024 are 25.5x, 42.9x, and 75.3x respectively, indicating that BSE remains undervalued compared to its peers [5] Industry Composition - The majority of BSE-listed companies are in the manufacturing sector, particularly in strategic emerging industries, with 96.4% of companies classified as such [5] - The top three industries represented on the BSE are machinery equipment (22.5%), electric equipment (10.4%), and basic chemicals (9.6%) [5] - There are 23 state-owned enterprises on the BSE, accounting for 9.2% of the total listings, with 19 being local and 4 central state-owned [5] Dividend Trends - Over the past three years, BSE-listed companies have generally increased their dividend payout ratios, with 28 companies maintaining a dividend yield above the 10-year government bond yield of 2.25% [5] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the overall valuation level of the BSE is significantly lower than that of ChiNext and STAR Market, indicating potential for valuation recovery [5]

Group 1 - As of June 30, 2024, there are 249 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE), with average revenue and net profit of 600 million yuan and 40 million yuan respectively, excluding extreme values [3][58] - The BSE companies are predominantly in the manufacturing sector, focusing on strategic emerging industries, with 240 out of 249 companies classified as such, representing 96.4% [68] - The average dividend payout ratio of BSE companies has been increasing over the past three years, with 28 companies maintaining a dividend yield above the 10-year government bond yield (2.25%) [4][66] Group 2 - The average market capitalization of BSE companies has shown a downward trend, and the monthly average trading volume has also decreased after an initial surge following the exchange's opening [9][10][24] - Compared to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext, the BSE has a relatively low valuation, with a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 25.5 times as of June 2024, significantly lower than the 42.9 times and 75.3 times of the other two boards [12] - The BSE has a focus on supporting innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly in advanced manufacturing and modern service industries [16][56] Group 3 - The mechanical equipment sector on the BSE is facing pressure on growth, profitability, and operational capabilities, with average net profit and revenue growth rates turning negative [70] - The electric equipment sector is primarily composed of battery, grid, and photovoltaic equipment companies, with 11 battery-related companies making up the largest share [81] - The lithium battery industry is showing signs of recovery, with a projected increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles, indicating a potential end to the lithium battery deflation cycle [82]