行业有望逐步好转，关注菊酯反倾销带来的价格弹性 扬农化工（600486.SH）/化工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年05月13日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格：65.23 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 15,811 11,478 13,292 15,400 18,268 分析师：孙颖 增长率yoy% 34% -27% 16% 16% 19% 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 净利润（百万元） 1,794 1,565 1,672 1,907 2,444 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 47% -13% 7% 14% 28% 每股收益（元） 4.42 3.85 4.11 4.69 6.01 净资产收益率 21% 16% 15% 15% 16% 分析师：王鹏 P/E 14.8 16.9 15.9 13.9 10.8 执业证书编号：S0740523020001 P/B 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.0 1 ...

[Table_Industry] 天然气重卡高景气，24Q1 营收同环比增长 潍柴动力(000338.SZ)/汽车 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024年5月14日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_I买nve入st（] 维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：17.66元 指标 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 175,158 213,958 227,224 246,765 266,753 [分Ta析b师le：_A何u俊th艺or s] 增长率yoy% -14% 22% 6% 9% 8% 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 净利润（百万元） 4,905 9,014 11,307 13,379 14,309 增长率yoy% -47% 84% 25% 18% 7% 每股收益（元） 0.56 1.03 1.30 1.53 1.64 每股现金流量 -0.27 3.15 2.15 0.83 4.63 净资产收益率 5% 8% 9% 10% 9% P/E 31.4 17.1 13.7 11.6 10.9 P/B 2.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for Changshu Bank, suggesting to pay attention to the bank's performance and growth potential [2][12]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's revenue growth remains strong, with a year-on-year increase of 12.0% in Q1 2024, driven by a 5.6% increase in net interest income and a significant 70% increase in non-interest income [3][6]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 19.8% year-on-year, indicating robust performance resilience [3][10]. - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a slight increase in non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 0.76%, but a notable improvement in the NPL generation rate [10][11]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 10,797 million yuan, with a growth rate of 9.4% [2]. - Net profit is expected to be 3,915 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.4% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.43 yuan for 2024, up from 1.20 yuan in 2023 [2]. Interest Income and Margin - The bank's net interest income increased by 14.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2024, with the annualized net interest margin rising by 25 basis points to 2.77% [6][7]. - The yield on assets increased by 24 basis points to 4.92%, while the cost of liabilities decreased by 1 basis point to 2.35% [6]. Asset and Liability Growth - In Q1 2024, the bank's loan growth was primarily supported by corporate loans, with total new loans of 128 billion yuan, an increase of 17 billion yuan year-on-year [7][8]. - Deposits grew significantly, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.4%, totaling 355.8 billion yuan in new deposits [7][9]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio slightly increased to 0.76%, but the NPL generation rate improved significantly, indicating better asset quality management [10][11]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 539.17%, reflecting strong risk mitigation capabilities [10][11]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2024, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 10.15%, showing a slight decrease from the previous quarter [12]. Shareholder Structure - The report notes changes in the top ten shareholders, with the introduction of new investors and some reductions in holdings by existing shareholders [13]. Investment Recommendation - The bank's business model focuses on personal loans, with strong risk control and market expansion strategies, suggesting a favorable investment outlook [12].

| --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 评级 | 说明 | | | 买入 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 15% 以上 | | | 增持 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 5%~15% 之间 | | 股票评级 | 持有 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 -10%~+5% 之间 | | | 减持 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数跌幅在 10% 以上 | | | 增持 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内对同期基准指数涨幅在 10% 以上 | | | | ...

[Table_Industry] 2024Q1 营收同环比增长，行业或将迎来置换性增量 中国重汽 000951.SZ/汽车 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 5 月 14 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

、 分化中寻找机遇，成本进入红利期 -大众品2023年报&2024一季报总结 食品饮料 证券研究报告/行业季度报告 2024年5月14日 评级：增持（ 维持 ） [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 分析师：范劲松 股价 EPS PE 简称 PEG 评级 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 (元) 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 青岛啤酒 85.25 3.13 3.74 4.25 4.67 27.2 22.8 20.1 18.3 1.47 买入 电话：021-20315733 中炬高新 28.45 2.16 1.01 1.24 1.49 13.2 28.2 22.9 19.1 1.01 买入 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 天味食品 14.15 0.43 0.53 0.62 0.72 33.0 26.7 22.8 19.7 1.34 买入 分析师：熊欣慰 安井食品 97.38 5.04 5.86 7.07 8.13 19.3 16.6 13.8 12.0 0.67 买入 盐津铺子 75.10 2.58 3.45 4. ...

[Table_Main] 评级：增持（ 维持 ） 、 银行业月度跟踪：板块取得 3%相对收益，业绩较好的优质城农商行领涨 行业名称 银行 证券研究报告/行业月报 2024 年 05 月 14 日 [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Core Views - The report focuses on the new trends in local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) investing in listed companies and analyzes the potential debt coverage through equity transfers, stock pledges, and dividends [5][10] - It also provides a comprehensive analysis of Japan's overseas expansion strategies, offering insights into China's potential approaches to address challenges such as aging population, insufficient domestic demand, industrial transformation, and trade frictions [5] - Additionally, the report reviews the development history and key features of exchangeable bonds (EBs), highlighting their risks and investment frameworks [10][12] LGFVs Investing in Listed Companies - The number of LGFVs investing in listed companies has been increasing since 2017, peaking in 2021 with 518 LGFVs, and slightly declining to 574 in 2023 [10] - The total market value of LGFV-held listed companies reached its highest point in 2021 but dropped by over 10% to 2349.18 billion yuan in 2023 [10] - As of December 31, 2023, 890 listed companies had LGFVs among their top ten shareholders, with a total market value of 2349.18 billion yuan [10] - The top three provinces with the highest number of LGFV-held listed companies are Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Beijing, while Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Guangdong have the highest market value of LGFV-held shares [10] - LGFVs primarily invest in industries such as utilities, non-bank financials, and transportation, with most investments concentrated in eastern China [10] Debt Coverage Analysis - Through equity transfers, if only minority shareholders sell their shares, the national debt coverage would be 209.99 billion yuan, while selling all LGFV-held shares could generate 1031.20 billion yuan [10] - Stock pledges by LGFVs amounted to 90.98 billion yuan as of December 31, 2023, with an average pledge ratio of 53.49% [10] - The maximum debt coverage from stock pledges is estimated at 564.55 billion yuan, with Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Guangdong being the top provinces in terms of pledged funds [10] - Dividends from LGFV-held listed companies could provide between 44.37 billion yuan and 72.55 billion yuan in debt coverage for 2025 and 2026, depending on the dividend yield [10] Japan's Overseas Expansion Strategies - Japan's overseas expansion can be categorized into four types: product exports, industrial exports, foreign aid, and cultural exports, covering both hard and soft power [5] - Japan's strategies to address challenges such as aging population and insufficient domestic demand include industrial exports to mitigate labor shortages and product exports to supplement domestic demand [5] - Japan's low-end industrial exports created space for domestic industrial transformation, while mid-to-high-end industrial exports drove technological upgrades [5] - In response to trade frictions, Japan compromised on product exports while using industrial exports and cultural diplomacy to enhance its international standing [5] Exchangeable Bonds (EBs) - EBs are bonds issued by shareholders of listed companies that can be exchanged for shares under certain conditions, serving purposes such as reducing holdings, financing, and mergers and acquisitions [12] - As of April 2024, 427 EBs have been issued, totaling 523 billion yuan, with private placements accounting for 94% of the total number and 77% of the total issuance [12] - EBs face credit and liquidity risks, with 20 EBs defaulting between 2018 and 2019, primarily involving private placements and investment holding companies [12] - Key terms of EBs include conversion clauses, downward adjustment clauses, call clauses, and put clauses, with some EBs also featuring upward adjustment clauses [12] - EBs can be categorized into equity-oriented and debt-oriented types, depending on the issuer's objectives and the bond's terms [12]

Core Insights - The medical device sector is experiencing steady performance influenced by policy changes and high base effects, with a focus on innovation-driven growth and investment opportunities in 2023 and Q1 2024 [6][9]. Medical Device Sector Summary - In 2023, the revenue of listed medical device companies reached CNY 258.688 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.99%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses fell by 61.31% to CNY 32.843 billion [6][9]. - The sub-sectors showed varied performance: medical equipment (+10.16%), high-value consumables (-11.02%), low-value consumables (-54.13%), and in vitro diagnostics (-88.83%) [6][9]. - The decline in revenue and profit in Q4 2023 was attributed to domestic anti-corruption policies and the high base from COVID-19 testing [6][9]. - In Q1 2024, the overall revenue of the medical device sector decreased by 5.49% year-on-year but showed a quarter-on-quarter decline of only 1.31%, with a significant recovery in net profit [6][9]. - The low-value consumables segment is expected to stabilize as inventory digestion nears completion, while the high-value consumables sector is anticipated to recover due to reduced pricing pressures from national procurement policies [6][9]. Investment Opportunities - The medical device industry is projected to continue its rapid growth, driven by innovation and the gradual easing of procurement policies, which may lead to valuation recovery [6][9]. - There is a strong emphasis on identifying quality stocks that are undervalued and poised for marginal changes, particularly those benefiting from policy support and technological advancements [6][9].

Japan's Industrial Outbound Investment - The acceleration of Japan's industrial outbound investment is driven by the appreciation of the yen following the Plaza Accord and escalating trade frictions with developed countries, particularly the US [1] - Japan's manufacturing sector has experienced a hollowing out due to large-scale overseas transfer of capital, technology, and equipment, leading to a decline in domestic manufacturing's GDP share [2] - Despite the overall decline in manufacturing, high-end manufacturing has seen an increase in its share, with industries like integrated electronics and transportation equipment playing a significant role [7] Historical Phases of Industrial Outbound Investment - **Phase 1 (1971-1984):** Japan's outbound investment started with a focus on cost reduction, resource security, and market expansion, with North America and Asia being the primary destinations [12][14] - **Phase 2 (1985-1990):** Investment growth accelerated, with a shift towards developed regions like North America and Europe, while Asia's share declined [15][17] - **Phase 3 (1990s onwards):** Outbound investment continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace, with a shift in industry structure from manufacturing to non-manufacturing sectors [69][136] Key Drivers of Industrial Outbound Investment - **Cost Reduction:** Japan transferred marginal industries with lost comparative advantages to Asian countries to reduce operational costs, following the "Flying Geese" economic development theory [14] - **Resource Security:** Investments in resource-rich countries aimed to overcome domestic resource limitations, exemplified by Japan's oil investments in the Middle East [134] - **Trade Friction Avoidance:** To mitigate trade conflicts, Japan expanded its industrial presence in developed economies, leveraging local production and sales to reduce trade imbalances [109] Structural Changes in Japan's Manufacturing Sector - Japan's manufacturing sector shifted from labor-intensive industries like textiles to capital-intensive industries such as steel, chemicals, and machinery during the post-war period [55][64] - By the 1970s, Japan's manufacturing had transitioned to technology-intensive and processing-assembly industries, with a decline in heavy industries like steel and a rise in high-tech sectors like electronics [84] Impact of External Factors on Industrial Outbound Investment - **Oil Crises:** The 1973 and 1979 oil crises led to Japan's shift from energy-intensive industries to resource-saving and technology-intensive industries, accelerating outbound investment [24][47] - **Trade Frictions:** Escalating trade conflicts with the US, particularly in the semiconductor industry, forced Japan to adopt voluntary export restrictions and diversify its export markets [37][38] Cultural and Soft Power Outbound Strategies - Japan's cultural outbound strategy, known as "Cool Japan," has been instrumental in promoting Japanese culture globally, leveraging anime, manga, and other cultural products to enhance international influence [141][142] - The integration of cultural outbound strategies with economic outbound investments, such as using anime characters to promote government development aid, has been a unique approach to enhancing Japan's global image [142] Lessons for China from Japan's Outbound Investment Experience - Japan's experience highlights the importance of outbound investment in addressing domestic challenges like aging populations and industrial transformation, offering valuable lessons for China's own outbound strategies [113][184] - China can learn from Japan's success in high-end manufacturing and the pitfalls in industries like electronics, where Japan lost its competitive edge due to declining technological innovation [170][194]