绿城中国23年报交流240419中泰原文 2024年04月19日12:30 发言人100:03 大家好，欢迎参加中泰地产绿城中国2023年报及金矿交流电话会议。目前所有参会者均处于静音状 态，下面开始播报名字声明。声明播报完毕后，主持人可直接发言，谢谢。 发言人100:17 本次电话会议服务于中泰证券正式签约客户，为非公开交流活动，未经中泰证券授权，请勿对外传播 本次会议的内容包括但不限于视频、音频、文字记录内容等信息，感谢您的理解与配合。中泰证券对违 反上述要求的行为保留追究法与责任的权利。 ：股市调 发言人100:37 市场有风险投资需谨慎。本会议信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。本公司不对任何人因使用本会议 中的信息所引致的任何损失负担任何责任， 发言人300:52 好的，各位投资人大家早上好。欢迎参加我们今天的会议，我是中泰证券地产行业首席刘子佩。在前不 久绿城中国也是发布了2023年的年报。应该说在整个行业这样的一个形势之下，绿城中国还是取得了非 常不错的这样的一个业绩增长。 发言人301:10 发言人201:31 况，还有近期的一个经营亮点。之后我们就进入到一个交流的一个环节。首先二三年我们整体的 ...

公司点评 - 3 - 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 评级 | 说明 | | | 买入 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 15% 以上 | | | 增持 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 5%~15% 之间 | | 股票评级 | 持有 | 预期未来 6 ...

视角看"消费降级" [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： 今日重点 >> 【商社】苏畅：买方时代，零售、品牌结构重塑——产业演进视角看"消 【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】商社苏畅：买方时代，零售、品牌结构重塑——产业演进 证券研究报告 2024 年 4 月 18 日 [b_Suy 今日预览 Email： 费降级" 晨报内容回顾： 【固收】肖雨：新"国九条"：转债市场关注什么？ 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 ►【商社】苏畅：买方时代，零售、品牌结构重塑——产业演进视角看"消费降级" 苏畅｜中泰商社负责人 S0740523110001 核心观点：市场热议的"消费降级"有经济周期的影响，但更重要的原因是商品、零售商走向过剩， 消费者话语权崛起后产业结构的重塑。在买方时代，零售商聚焦于价格竞争是生存之道，而品牌商 在此背景下将走向 K 型分化。 过去的"消费升级"更多只是消费的分化，乃至通货膨胀。过去市场误把消费的"分化"当成了"升 级"，对于消费者而言真正的升级在于用更低的成本，满足同样的效用（消 ...

、 销售环比回暖，基本面仍旧弱势 -房地产行业点评 房地产 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024年4月18日 [T评ab级le_：M增ain持] （维持） [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 分析师：由子沛 股价 EPS PE 简称 评级 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 (元) 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 保利发展 8.08 1.53 1.70 2.07 2.73 5.28 4.75 3.90 2.96 买入 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 招商蛇口 8.48 0.41 1.06 1.31 1.67 20.68 8.00 6.47 5.08 买入 滨江集团 6.31 1.20 1.42 1.76 2.31 5.26 4.44 3.59 2.73 买入 分析师：侯希得 华发股份 6.28 1.12 1.40 1.61 1.80 5.61 4.49 3.90 3.49 买入 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 备 注：股价使用2024年4月17日收盘价 Email：houxd@zts.com.cn [投 ...

[Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 1,195 1,496 1,809 2,180 2,624 增长率 yoy% 34.7% 25.2% 20.9% 20.5% 20.4% 净利润（百万元） 225 325 391 476 573 增长率 yoy% 50.9% 44.3% 20.4% 21.8% 20.4% 每股收益（元） 0.50 0.73 0.87 1.06 1.28 每股现金流量 0.28 0.40 0.46 0.49 0.77 净资产收益率 9.6% 12.2% 13.1% 14.1% 14.8% P/E 34 24 20 16 13 P/B 3 3 3 2 2 备注：股价采用 2024 年 4 月 17 日收盘价 Email：wenxc@zts.com.cn Email：wangxq03@zts.com.cn 彩讯股份（300634.SZ）/计算机 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 4 月 18 日 ◼ 投资事件：2024 年 4 月 16 日，公司发布 2023 年年报。报告期间，公司实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [7][24]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 10.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.36% to 1.020 billion yuan. The fourth quarter showed significant growth with a revenue increase of 23.97% and a net profit increase of 89.62% [10][19]. - The company is diversifying its business beyond the metallurgical sector, with revenue from this sector decreasing from 71.60% in 2021 to 45.85% in 2023, indicating a successful expansion into other fields such as energy and pharmaceuticals [19]. - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow management, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.352 billion yuan in 2023, indicating robust operational quality and strong bargaining power within the supply chain [19]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 10,766 million yuan - 2023A: 10,143 million yuan (down 6% YoY) - 2024E: 11,133 million yuan (up 10% YoY) - 2025E: 12,447 million yuan (up 12% YoY) - 2026E: 13,842 million yuan (up 11% YoY) [2] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 968 million yuan - 2023A: 1,020 million yuan (up 5% YoY) - 2024E: 1,167 million yuan (up 14% YoY) - 2025E: 1,367 million yuan (up 17% YoY) - 2026E: 1,522 million yuan (up 11% YoY) [2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 0.56 yuan - 2023A: 0.59 yuan - 2024E: 0.68 yuan - 2025E: 0.79 yuan - 2026E: 0.88 yuan [2] - Profitability Ratios: - Gross Margin: 21.49% in 2023 (down 0.55 percentage points YoY) - Net Margin: 10.83% in 2023 (up 1.05 percentage points YoY) [19] Market Expansion and Opportunities - The company is advancing in the compressed air energy storage sector, having developed systems for 10MW to 350MW scale compressors and winning multiple project bids, indicating a strong market presence [26]. - The company is actively pursuing international markets, achieving significant breakthroughs in Europe and other regions, which is expected to enhance its market share and revenue potential [26].

Investment Rating - Overweight (maintained) [1] Core Views - The so-called "consumption downgrade" is influenced by economic cycles but is more fundamentally driven by the oversupply of goods and retailers, coupled with the rise of consumer bargaining power, leading to a reshaping of the industrial structure [1] - In the buyer's era, retailers must focus on price competition to survive, while brand manufacturers will experience K-shaped differentiation [1] - The past "consumption upgrade" was more about consumption differentiation and inflation, where consumers were forced to accept higher-priced products due to limited choices [1] - The current "consumption downgrade" reflects the adjustment of a distorted industrial structure as consumer bargaining power increases, leading to a shift in value distribution towards consumers [1] - Retailers must reposition themselves to serve consumers by reducing transaction costs, both implicitly (ease of decision-making) and explicitly (offering cost-effective products) [1] - The rise of Pinduoduo and discount snack stores represents the replacement of inefficient retail organizations by more efficient ones, focusing on consumer benefits rather than merchant interests [2] - Brand manufacturers face a broken pricing logic as retailers compress margins, leading to a K-shaped differentiation in the industry [2] Retailers: Returning to the Core, Focusing on Reducing Transaction Costs - Retailers must shift from serving merchants to serving consumers, with their core value lying in reducing transaction costs [6] - The essence of retailing is to match supply with demand while minimizing transaction costs, which include both explicit (supply chain costs) and implicit (consumer cognitive costs) factors [9] - In the early stages, consumer cognitive costs are more critical, but as information symmetry improves, supply chain efficiency becomes the long-term strategy [10] - Retailers like Costco exemplify the value of reducing transaction costs by focusing on consumer benefits, such as low pricing and high efficiency [13] - Chinese retailers are still stuck in the seller's era, focusing on serving merchants rather than consumers, which has led to inefficiencies and weak profitability [17] - The "consumption downgrade" is a return to the essence of retailing in the buyer's era, where retailers must offer lower prices or more cost-effective products to survive [24] Brand Manufacturers: K-Shaped Differentiation - The golden era for brand manufacturers may be over, as retailers gain more bargaining power and challenge their pricing strategies [28] - The rise of private labels and the decline of brand loyalty in certain categories will lead to a K-shaped differentiation, where only strong brands with unique value propositions will survive [32] - Functional products with low differentiation and weak brand value are more likely to be replaced by private labels, while brands with strong social or emotional value will remain resilient [37] - Brand manufacturers must focus on innovation and emotional branding to maintain their relevance in the face of retailer challenges [41] Industry Trends - The shift towards a buyer's market will lead to increased competition among retailers, forcing them to optimize supply chains and reduce costs [6] - The rise of efficient retail organizations like Pinduoduo and discount snack stores will continue to disrupt traditional retail models [24] - The concentration of retailers and their increasing bargaining power will limit the pricing ability of brand manufacturers, leading to structural changes in the industry [30] - The future of the retail industry will see a K-shaped differentiation, with strong brands and efficient retailers thriving while weaker players are淘汰 [41]

年受减值影响大， 业绩符合预期 23 24Q1 璞泰来(603659.SH)/电力设 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月18日 备 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T增itle持] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 市场价格：19.29元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 分析师：曾彪 营业收入（百万元） 15,464 15,340 16,710 19,376 22,802 153.08 增长率YoY% 72% -1% 9% 16% 18% 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 净利润（百万元） 3,104 1,912 2,705 3,405 4,057 Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn 增长率YoY% 78% -38% 42% 26% 19% 每股收益（元） 1.45 0.89 1.27 1.59 1.90 分析师：朱柏睿 每股现金流量 0.57 0.52 1.69 1.90 2.11 执业证书编号：S0740522080002 净资产收益率 22% 10% 13% 14% 14% Email：zhu ...

盈利水平提升，海外工厂 年有望放量 23Q4 24 科达利(002850.SZ)/电力设 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月18日 备 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 市场价格：87.25元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 分析师：曾彪 营业收入（百万元） 8,654 10,511 13,175 15,939 19,186 153.08 增长率YoY% 94% 21% 25% 21% 20% 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 净利润（百万元） 901 1,201 1,461 1,798 2,189 Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn 增长率YoY% 66% 33% 22% 23% 22% 每股收益（元） 3.34 4.45 5.41 6.66 8.11 分析师：朱柏睿 每股现金流量 1.62 2.77 6.50 7.72 8.51 执业证书编号：S0740522080002 净资产收益率 15% 11% 12% 13% 14% Email：zhub ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The company has shown a positive turnaround in Q1, with both revenue and profit growth exceeding expectations. The revenue for Q1 is reported at 2.07 billion, reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year, while the net profit is 130 million, marking a significant recovery from a previous decline [6][7]. - The internal sales are expected to be the main driver of growth, with a projected double-digit increase, while external sales are anticipated to remain flat [7]. - The company is expected to stabilize its net profit margin, which has fluctuated in the past, with a potential for significant upside in the future [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 9,760 million in 2024E, 10,487 million in 2025E, and 11,270 million in 2026E, indicating a growth rate of 2% in 2024E and 7% in both 2025E and 2026E [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase to 547 million in 2024E, 601 million in 2025E, and 654 million in 2026E, with a notable growth rate of 41% in 2024E [2][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.51 in 2023A to 0.71 in 2024E, 0.78 in 2025E, and 0.85 in 2026E [2][6]. Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 11.30 yuan, with a market capitalization of 8.7 billion [6][7]. - The report indicates that the company's gross margin remains stable, and future observations will focus on the efficiency of expense allocation [7].