分析师：李垚 Email：houxd@zts.com.cn 投资要点 2023 年公司实现新拓展项目中标总金额 18.76 亿元，饱和年化合同收入金额 9.69 亿 元，其中重庆以外区域市场项目占比约 65.82%，同比+26.54%。从收入结构看，2023 年 公司来自重庆区域的收入占比 34.98%，同比增长 5.32%，来自重庆之外区域占比 65.0 2%，同比增长 30.34%。公司全国化布局、深耕全国重点城市的"城市合伙人"战略得 到充分实践，完成了一家业务覆盖区域型企业到全国型企业的蜕变。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 2 - 本报告基于本公司及其研究人员认为可信的公开资料或实地调研资料，反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客 观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。本公司力求但不保证这些信息的准确性和完整性，且本报告中 的资料、意见、预测均反映报告初次公开发布时的判断，可能会随时调整。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发 出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本报告所载的资料、工具、意见、信息及 推测只提供给客户作参考之用，不构成任何投资、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a market price of 12.12 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company is establishing a joint venture in Germany with its subsidiary Grammer to expand its global seating business, targeting major European manufacturers like BMW. The total investment for this new company is 50 million euros [1]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic automotive seating market, with a significant opportunity for global market penetration. The establishment of the joint venture is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the global seating market [10]. - The company has achieved a critical mass in its seating business, with multiple projects set to launch in 2024, indicating a transition to a scalable phase [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 17,967 million yuan in 2022 to 28,958 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% [1]. - Net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 1,417 million yuan in 2022 to a profit of 1,143 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth rates of 109% in 2024 and 169% in 2025 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from -1.22 yuan in 2022 to 0.98 yuan in 2025 [1].

证券研究报告 【中泰汽车】低空经济专题报告：值得重视的 新质生产力代表 元年或至 — 中泰证券汽车行业首席分析师： 中泰证券汽车行业分析师： 中泰证券汽车行业分析师： 何俊艺 刘欣畅 毛䶮玄 S0740523020004 S0740522120003 S0740523020003 15121172110 13662690104 13162320122 hejy02@zts.com.cn liuxc03@zts.com.cn maoyx@zts.com.cn 2024年4月17日 1 核心观点 ...

JKL#23M2NOPAQRSTUVWXYZ[\ JKL(603806.SH)/]^_ abcd;I! 2024M4e16f ‘ [Table_Industry] [!Ta"ble#_T$itle%] &’() [=Ta>ble?_F@inAancBe1C] DE !"#$%25.94& 23 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E D-EFG78&H 18,877 22,589 28,080 32,941 38,030 ’()%*+ IJKyoy% 47% 20% 24% 17% 15% ,-./01%S0740522020001 LMNG78&H 1,579 1,850 2,386 2,859 3,334 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn IJKyoy% -28% 17% 29% 20% 17% O5EPG&H 0.85 0.99 1.28 1.53 1.79 O5QR9S 0.01 -0.01 0.15 0.57 0.75 ’()%23 LTUEPK 11% 12% 14% 14% 15% ,-./01%S0740522040004 P/E 30.6 26.1 20 ...

直营门店深度调整，合伙人模式持续推进 ——海伦司23年报点评 海伦司（9869.HK）/餐饮 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年04月16日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T增itle持] （下调） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：3.12港元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 1,559 1,209 1,034 1,439 1,935 分析师：苏畅 增长率yoy% -15% -22% -14% 39% 34% 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 归母净利润（百万元） -1,601 181 220 288 367 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -596% 111% 22% 31% 27% 每股收益（元） -1.27 0.14 0.17 0.23 0.29 每股现金流量 0.11 0.00 0.23 0.28 0.39 分析师：张友华 净资产收益率 -68% 10% 11% 13% 15% 执业证书编号：S0740523110006 P/E -2.2 19.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of 34.85 [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 744 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 233 million yuan, up 40.49% year-on-year [19]. - The company continues to strengthen its competitive advantage with core products, particularly the A5 and HTS series, which have expanded their market presence and application scope [10][11]. - The gross profit margin improved to 69.16% in 2023, an increase of 1.70 percentage points compared to the previous year, with specific improvements in the custom software and operation service segments [20]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 831 million, 937 million, and 1,065 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 271 million, 319 million, and 376 million yuan [21]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 1.36 yuan in 2024 to 2.20 yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [21]. - The report highlights a decrease in management and R&D expense ratios, contributing to improved profitability [20].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In Q1 2024, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%, primarily driven by inventory replenishment by enterprises [2][5] - The secondary industry recorded the highest GDP growth at 6.0%, significantly outpacing the growth of terminal demand, indicating a likely inventory replenishment phase [2][5] - The relationship between inventory cycles and GDP growth suggests that the actual recovery in terminal demand may not be as positive as indicated by GDP growth figures [2][5] Group 2: Industrial and Investment Insights - Industrial added value growth slowed to 4.5% in March 2024, down from 7.0% in the previous months, with mining, manufacturing, and utilities all experiencing declines [2][9] - Fixed asset investment increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment rising from 9.4% to 10.3%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [2][9] - Infrastructure investment growth was 8.6%, but real estate investment saw a significant decline of 16.8%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [2][9] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends - Social retail sales growth fell to 3.1% in March, significantly lower than the previous months, with automotive sales being a major drag [2][9] - The marginal propensity to consume reached 63.3%, the highest since 2020, indicating potential for consumer spending recovery, albeit at a slow pace [2][9] - Service retail sales growth is expected to continue declining due to base effects and the gradual release of pent-up demand [2][9] Group 4: Employment and Economic Stability - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2% in the first quarter, aligning with seasonal patterns and lower than the previous year [2][9] - The overall economic situation appears stable, with expectations for continued policy support to stimulate growth in the coming quarters [2][9]

Economic Growth and Inventory Cycle - In Q1 2024, GDP growth was 5.3%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[8] - The primary driver for the higher-than-expected GDP growth was corporate inventory replenishment, particularly in the secondary industry, which saw a year-on-year growth of 6.0%[2] - The inventory cycle can lead to underestimations of GDP growth, as seen in Q3 2023 when actual GDP growth was 4.9% against a market expectation of 4.5%[9] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment year-on-year increased from 4.2% to 4.7%, with manufacturing investment rising from 9.4% to 10.3%[5] - Notable growth in specific manufacturing sectors included transportation equipment (24.6%), metal products (21.8%), and agricultural processing (20.2%)[5] - Infrastructure investment decreased from 9.0% to 8.6%, primarily affected by transportation sector performance[18] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth declined from 5.5% to 3.1%, with automotive sales significantly dragging down the overall figure, dropping from 8.7% to -3.7%[29] - Per capita disposable income reached 11,539 yuan, with a marginal propensity to consume at 63.3%, the highest since 2020 but still below pre-pandemic levels[21] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the current economic recovery may not be as robust as GDP figures indicate, with potential inventory destocking in Q2 possibly dragging down GDP growth[4][15] - The service sector's production index fell from 5.8% to 5.0%, indicating challenges in maintaining growth levels seen in 2023[27] - The real estate sector continues to face difficulties, with the National Housing Prosperity Index declining from 92.12 to 92.07, indicating ongoing struggles in the market[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 197.15 RMB [2][3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance was solid, with stable profitability despite a 10.4% YoY decline in revenue to 79.8 billion RMB [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7% YoY to 10.5 billion RMB, while non-GAAP net profit rose 18.6% YoY to 9.247 billion RMB [1] - Gross margin improved to 26.4%, up 5.2 percentage points YoY, and net margin increased to 14.0%, up 2.7 percentage points YoY [1] - Operating cash flow surged 35% YoY to 28.36 billion RMB, with cash on hand reaching 288.6 billion RMB [1] - The company's global market share in power batteries remained strong at 38.4% in Jan-Feb 2024, with overseas market share at 26.3% [1] - The company's energy storage battery shipments grew 36% YoY to 19GWh, accounting for 20% of total shipments [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 391.658 billion RMB, a slight decline of 2% YoY, with a recovery to 10% growth in 2025E [2] - Net profit for 2024E is forecasted at 52.668 billion RMB, a 19% YoY increase, with further growth of 23% in 2025E [2] - EPS is expected to rise from 11.97 RMB in 2024E to 17.59 RMB in 2026E [2] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 19% from 2024E to 2026E [6] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 26.4% in 2024E to 28.3% in 2026E [6] Market Position and Growth - The company maintained its leading position in the global power battery market with a 48.93% domestic market share in Q1 2024 [1] - Power battery shipments in Q1 2024 reached 72GWh, a 25% YoY increase, accounting for 76% of total shipments [1] - The company launched new energy storage integration products, which are expected to drive global order growth [1] Valuation and Projections - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decline from 16.5x in 2024E to 11.2x in 2026E, indicating attractive valuation [2][6] - The P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 3.5x in 2024E to 2.2x in 2026E [2][6] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to drop from 72x in 2024E to 57x in 2026E, reflecting improving profitability [6] Operational Efficiency - The company's inventory management strategy and lower raw material prices contributed to strong cash flow performance [1] - Operating cash flow is projected to grow from 73.518 billion RMB in 2024E to 100.529 billion RMB in 2026E [6] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is expected to improve from 88.6% in 2024E to 69.1% in 2026E, indicating better financial health [6]

天合光能：全球光伏组件行业巨头，一体两翼稳步发展 天合光能（688599.SH）/电力设备 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2024年4月14日 [评Ta级ble：_T增itle持] （首次覆盖） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：21.75 指标 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业收入（百万元） 44,480 85,052 113,499 111,741 124,396 分析师：曾彪 增长率yoy% 51% 91% 33% -2% 11% 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 净利润（百万元） 1,804 3,680 5,561 6,024 6,667 增长率yoy% 47% 104% 51% 8% 11% 每股收益（元） 0.83 1.69 2.55 2.76 3.06 分析师：赵宇鹏 每股现金流量 0.50 4.24 1.84 1.59 4.22 执业证书编号：S0740522100005 净资产收益率 10% 13% 17% 15% 15% P/E 26.3 12.9 8.9 8.2 7.4 [基Ta本ble状_P况ro fit] P/B ...