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【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】电新曾彪:eVTOL处于0-1过程,应用前景广阔—eVTOL专题报告
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-21 16:00
Group 1: eVTOL Industry Insights - The eVTOL industry is currently in the 0-1 stage, indicating significant potential for future applications [2] - Global eVTOL fleet projections estimate 500,000, 4.5 million, and 16 million units in operation by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively [2] - Revenue forecasts for global eVTOL operators are projected to reach $10 billion, $160 billion, and $900 billion in 2030, 2040, and 2050, with 50% of 2050 revenue expected from airport transfers [2] - eVTOL systems consist of several subsystems, including airframe, navigation and communication, flight control, power, and energy subsystems [2] Group 2: Consumer Finance Regulatory Changes - The new Consumer Finance Company Management Measures increase the minimum registered capital from 300 million to 1 billion [2] - The requirement for major shareholders' ownership has been raised from 30% to 50%, impacting 15 out of 31 consumer finance companies that currently have lower ownership [2] - The revised regulations clarify that "consulting and agency services" are part of daily operations, which may enhance revenue sources for consumer finance companies [2] - The new rules allow consumer finance companies to apply for asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance [2] - The limit on guarantee and credit enhancement business is set to not exceed 50% of total loan balances, promoting self-operated and profit-sharing models [2]
当前经济与政策思考:出口的扰动(一):反倾销
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-21 16:00
——当前经济与政策思考 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | [Table_Title] 分析师:杨畅 | [ 投资要点 Table_Summary ] | | 执业证书编号: ...
利润短期承压,看好长期端侧AI+机器人发展机遇
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-21 16:00
利润短期承压,看好长期端侧AI+机器人发展机遇 中科创达(300496.SZ)/计算机 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年3月21日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格:61.81元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 5,445 5,242 6,191 7,458 9,148 分析师:闻学臣 增长率yoy% 32.0% -3.7% 18.1% 20.5% 22.7% 执业证书编号:S0740519090007 净利润(百万元) 769 466 689 843 1,042 Email:wenxc@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 18.8% -39.4% 47.8% 22.4% 23.6% 每股收益(元) 1.67 1.01 1.50 1.83 2.27 每股现金流量 1.08 1.64 1.76 1.81 2.09 联系人:王雪晴 净资产收益率 8.3% 4.8% 6.7% 7.6% 8.8% Email:wangxq03@zts.com.cn ...
2023年业绩符合预期,库存改善期待24年健康增长
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-21 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 14.346 billion HKD in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.94%, and a net profit of 1.03 billion HKD, up 11.75% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [4]. - The main brand's revenue showed steady growth, with the children's segment expanding rapidly. The main brand, Xtep, generated 11.947 billion HKD in 2023, growing 7.4% year-on-year, while the children's segment opened 183 new stores, totaling 1,703 [4]. - The fashion sports segment experienced high growth domestically, with a revenue increase of 14.3% to 1.603 billion HKD, driven by brand revitalization efforts [4]. - The professional sports segment saw a remarkable growth of 98.9%, primarily due to strong demand for Saucony products [4]. - The company's gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 42.2%, with a significant reduction in inventory levels by over 25% compared to mid-year [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of over 10% for 2024, with net profits projected at 1.2 billion HKD, reflecting a 14.8% increase [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.40 HKD in 2023 to 0.45 HKD in 2024 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11.7 in 2023 to 10.2 in 2024, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4]. - The report anticipates a net profit growth of 12.2% and 11.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4].
计算机行业产业复盘与未来推演:AI应用:追本溯源之后,我们相信什么?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-21 16:00
[Table_Industry] AI 应用:追本溯源之后,我们相信什么? ——产业复盘与未来推演 计算机 证券研究报告/行业深度报告 2024年3月21日 [评Ta级ble:_I增nve持st(] 维持) [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 [分Ta析b师le:_A苏u仪th ors] 市值 收入(亿元) PS 简称 PSG 评级 (亿元) 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 执业证书编号:S0740520060001 科大讯飞 1,209 183.14 188.20 201.67 235E. 73 288E. 58 7 6 6 5 E4 0.31 买入 S分0析74师05:20闻0学60臣00 1wangxq03@zts 金山办公 1,534 32.80 38.85 46.66 60.22 76.27 47 39 33 25 20 1.18 买入 .执co业m证.cn书 编号:S0740519090007 万兴科技 155 10.29 11.80 14.89 19.63 25.52 15 13 10 8 6 0.34 ...
生长激素保持韧性,高比例分红回馈股东
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-21 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changchun High-tech [1] Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 145.66 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.32 billion yuan, up 9.48% year-on-year [6][12] - The biopharmaceutical business remains robust, with revenue from this segment reaching 129.11 billion yuan, accounting for 88.63% of total revenue, and a gross profit margin exceeding 90% [6][12] - The company plans to distribute a high dividend, proposing a cash dividend of 4.5 yuan per 10 shares for the 2023 fiscal year, which represents 39.93% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 12,627.19 million yuan - 2023A: 14,566.04 million yuan - 2024E: 16,125.73 million yuan - 2025E: 17,965.85 million yuan - 2026E: 19,956.57 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 15.35%, 2024E: 10.71%, 2025E: 11.41%, 2026E: 11.08% [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 4,140.11 million yuan - 2023A: 4,532.48 million yuan - 2024E: 5,023.91 million yuan - 2025E: 5,615.41 million yuan - 2026E: 6,240.95 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 9.48%, 2024E: 10.84%, 2025E: 11.77%, 2026E: 11.14% [1] - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2022A: 10.23 yuan - 2023A: 11.20 yuan - 2024E: 12.42 yuan - 2025E: 13.88 yuan - 2026E: 15.42 yuan [1] - **Cash Flow Per Share**: - 2022A: 13.78 yuan - 2023A: 18.74 yuan - 2024E: 27.22 yuan - 2025E: 36.60 yuan - 2026E: 47.19 yuan [1] - **Return on Equity**: - 2022A: 20% - 2023A: 18% - 2024E: 16% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 15% [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E: 2022A: 12.95, 2023A: 11.83, 2024E: 10.67, 2025E: 9.55, 2026E: 8.59 - PEG: 2022A: 1.27, 2023A: 1.25, 2024E: 0.98, 2025E: 0.81, 2026E: 0.77 - P/B: 2022A: 2.97, 2023A: 2.43, 2024E: 1.98, 2025E: 1.65, 2026E: 1.39 [1] Segment Performance - **Jinsai Pharmaceutical**: - In 2023, Jinsai Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 110.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.48%, with a net profit of 45.14 billion yuan, up 7.05% [10][12] - **Other Segments**: - Baike Biological reported revenue of 18.25 billion yuan, a growth of 70.33%, and a net profit of 5.01 billion yuan, up 175.98% - Huakang Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 7.03 billion yuan, a growth of 6.77%, with a net profit of 0.37 billion yuan, up 17.94% - Gaoxin Real Estate reported revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, a growth of 13.81%, with a net profit of 0.74 billion yuan, up 15.63% [12][16]
年报符合预期,利润增速有望企稳
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-20 16:00
舍得酒业:年报符合预期,利润增速有望企稳 舍得酒业(600702.SH)/食 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年3月21日 品饮料 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级bl:e_买Tit入le(] 维持) [公Ta司bl盈e_利Fin预an测ce及1] 估值 市场价格:84.05元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 6,056 7,081 8,116 9,174 10,269 分析师:范劲松 增长率yoy% 21.86% 16.93% 14.62% 13.03% 11.94% 执业证书编号:S0740517030001 净利润(百万元) 1,685 1,771 2,065 2,350 2,643 电话:021-20315138 增长率yoy% 35.31% 5.09% 16.56% 13.81% 12.50% 每股收益(元) 5.06 5.32 6.20 7.05 7.93 Email:fanjs@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 3.12 2.15 5.50 6.09 7.04 分析师:何长天 净资产收益率 25.78% 23.43% 23.17 ...
银行《消费金融公司管理办法》修订点评:提升门槛,回归主业
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-20 16:00
、 《消费金融公司管理办法》修订点评:提升门槛,回归主业 行业名称 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024年03月20日 [ 投Tab 资le 要_F 点ina nce] 评级:增持( 维持 ) 分析师 戴志锋 ◼ 核心要点:1、提升准入:注册资本 3亿提至 10亿。2、提升股东责任:主要出资 人持股 30%提升至 50%。3、明确“咨询、代理业务”作为日常业务,有助于消 执业证书编号:S0740517030004 金公司增加科技服务等收入来源。4、明确可申请发行 ABS。5、担保增信业务余 Email:daizf@zts.com.cn 额不得超过50%,提升风险自担要求,鼓励自营、分润模式发展。 分析师 邓美君 ◼ 2024 年 3 月 18 日,金融监管总局正式发布《消费金融公司管理办法》,结合消费 执业证书编号:S0740519050002 金融公司行业实际情况,进一步提高消费金融公司准入标准,强化业务分类监管和 Email:dengmj@rzts.com.cn 公司治理监管。 ◼ 提升准入:《办法》将消金公司最低注册资本由 3亿元提升至 10亿元。目前 31家 消金公司中有 9 家低于 10 亿注 ...
【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】地产由子沛:基本面下行,仍待政策起效
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-20 16:00
存单 1,620 亿元。2)广义基金全面增持。广义基金增持利率债 1,436 亿元,其中国债、地方债和政 金债增持规模分别为 345 亿元、886 亿元和 204 亿元;增持信用债 1,637 亿元,主要为增持 1,091 亿元中票和 580 亿元超短融;增持同业存单 1,327 亿元。3)券商增持同业存单,减持利率债和信 用债。券商减持 327 亿元利率债,主要为减持 191 亿元地方债和 140 亿元政金债,同时增持 4 亿元 国债;减持信用债 42 亿元,主要为减持 27 亿元中票和 17 亿元企业债;增持同业存单 120 亿元。4) 保险机构增持信用债,减持利率债和同业存单。保险机构减持 55 亿元利率债,主要为减持 172 亿 元国债和 114 亿元政金债,同时增持 232 亿元地方债;增持信用债 25 亿元,主要为增持 35 亿元中 票;减持同业存单 32 亿元。5)境外机构增持同业存单,减持利率债和信用债。境外机构减持 163 亿元利率债,其中国债和政金债的增持规模为 88 亿元和 76 亿元;减持信用债 19 亿元,主要为减 持 15 亿元中票;增持同业存单 958 亿元。 杠杆率连续 4 个 ...
海外一次性增长靓丽,高研发投入保持技术优势
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-20 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.168 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, and a net profit of 1.566 billion yuan, down 37.2% year-on-year [4]. - The overseas market showed robust growth, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, while the domestic market faced significant challenges due to regulatory changes [4][5]. - The company has maintained high R&D investment, reaching 1.483 billion yuan in 2023, which has helped sustain its technological advantage in the vaping industry [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023E Revenue: 11,168 million yuan, down 8.0% YoY - 2024E Revenue: 12,378 million yuan, expected growth of 10.8% - 2025E Revenue: 13,597 million yuan, expected growth of 9.8% - 2023E Net Profit: 1,645 million yuan, down 34.5% YoY - 2024E Net Profit: 1,744 million yuan, expected growth of 6.0% - 2025E Net Profit: 1,831 million yuan, expected growth of 5.0% [3][4][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023E EPS: 0.27 yuan - 2024E EPS: 0.28 yuan - 2025E EPS: 0.30 yuan [3][5]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - 2023E P/E: 23.3 - 2024E P/E: 22.0 - 2025E P/E: 21.0 - 2023E P/B: 1.8 - 2024E P/B: 1.7 - 2025E P/B: 1.5 [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The company has seen a significant increase in its disposable product revenue, which grew by 74.5% year-on-year, indicating a shift in product mix [4][5]. - The U.S. market contributed 4.084 billion yuan in revenue, up 8.2% year-on-year, while the European market generated 5.074 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [4]. - The domestic market faced a drastic decline, with revenue dropping by 92.7% to 163 million yuan due to new regulations and taxes affecting demand [4][5].