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eVTOL专题报告:eVTOL处于0-1过程,应用前景广阔
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-20 16:00
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the eVTOL industry Core Insights - The eVTOL industry is in the 0-1 stage, with vast application prospects ahead [2] - The low-altitude economy is defined as a comprehensive economic form driven by low-altitude flight activities of manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, encompassing various related industries [4] - The global drone market has seen rapid growth, with investment in the drone industry increasing from $1.21 billion in 2013 to $4.806 billion in 2022 [11] - The report highlights the significant growth potential of the low-altitude economy in China, projecting a market size increase from over 500 billion RMB in 2023 to over 2 trillion RMB by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 22% [30] Summary by Sections 1. Low Altitude Economy Overview - The low-altitude economy includes the development of manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, infrastructure, and related services [4] - The low-altitude flight activities primarily occur below 1000 meters, with the market dominated by industrial and consumer drones [4] 2. Development History - The low-altitude economy has evolved through early application exploration and standardized development phases, with the current focus on application popularization [7] 3. Application Scenarios - Various application scenarios include logistics, agriculture, public services, and tourism, showcasing the versatility of the low-altitude economy [9] 4. Global Development Status - The global drone market is rapidly growing, with the number of general aviation aircraft deliveries reaching 2,818 in 2022, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [11] - The U.S. leads in general aviation development, while China has a significant advantage in drone operation scale [12] 5. U.S. and European Market Insights - The U.S. has maintained a stable delivery volume of general aviation aircraft, while Europe focuses on diverse applications such as agricultural monitoring and logistics [14][16] 6. Chinese Policy and Market Development - China's low-altitude airspace management reforms began in 2010, with significant progress in policy formulation and implementation [21] - The market for low-altitude economy in China is projected to grow significantly, with the number of registered general aviation aircraft expected to increase by 17% by 2025 [30] 7. Industry Chain Structure - The industry chain includes upstream research and development, midstream manufacturing of drones and low-altitude aircraft, and downstream applications integrating various industries [37] 8. eVTOL Development - eVTOLs are characterized by their ability to carry passengers and cargo, with various configurations such as multi-rotor and tilt-wing designs [46] - The eVTOL market is expected to see significant growth, with applications in urban air mobility, emergency rescue, and private transportation [48]
业绩同比保持增长,分红提升空间较大


ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-20 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 192.97 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 12.52% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.53 billion yuan, an increase of 6.98% year-on-year [7]. - The coal production and sales increased by 12.6% and 11.3% respectively, despite a decline in unit prices [8]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 211.25 billion yuan in 2024 and 225.38 billion yuan in 2026 [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023 Revenue: 192.97 billion yuan, 2024E: 211.25 billion yuan, 2025E: 217.64 billion yuan, 2026E: 225.38 billion yuan [6][10]. - 2023 Net Profit: 19.53 billion yuan, 2024E: 21.84 billion yuan, 2025E: 23.47 billion yuan, 2026E: 25.55 billion yuan [10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023 EPS: 1.46 yuan, 2024E: 1.65 yuan, 2025E: 1.77 yuan, 2026E: 1.93 yuan [10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Current P/E ratio is projected to be 7.2X in 2024, decreasing to 6.1X by 2026 [10]. Coal Business Overview - The company produced 134.22 million tons of self-produced coal in 2023, a 12.6% increase year-on-year, with a unit price decline of 15.9% [8]. - The company is expected to increase production capacity by 5 million tons annually, with projects completed in 2023 [8]. Coal Chemical Business Overview - The methanol production in 2023 was 1.901 million tons, with a unit price decrease of 9.5% [9]. - The company faced increased costs in Q4 2023, impacting profitability [10]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend of 5.86 billion yuan for 2023, with a dividend payout ratio of 30%, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.74% based on the current stock price [10].
【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】机械王可:先进封装之板级封装:产业扩张,重视设备机遇
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-20 16:00
- 5 - 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】机械王可:先进封装之板级封装:产业扩张,重视设备机 板级封装:先进封装重要方向。 板级封装是在大幅面内实现扇出布线的先进封装工艺。随着半导体行业发展,布线密度提升、I/O 端口需求增多共同推动扇出型封装发展。扇出型封装分为扇出型晶圆级封装(FOWLP)与扇出型 板级封装(FOPLP),二者区别在于载板,板级封装重组载板由 8 寸/12 寸 wafer carrier 转换为大 尺寸面板; 板级封装具备产效高、降成本的优势。板级封装面积利用率高减少浪费、一次封装芯片数量多,封 装效率更高,规模效应强,具备极强成本优势。根据 Yole,随着基板面积提升,芯片制造成本下 降,从 200mm 过渡到 300mm 大约节省 25%的成本,从 300mm 过渡到板级,节约 66%的成本。 板级封装发展前景广阔。板级封装相比传统封装在提升性能的同时,能够大幅降低成本,板级封装 有望代替传统封装成为 Sensor、功率 IC、射频、链接模块、PMIC 等的最佳解决方案。以汽车为例, 一辆新能源汽车中半导体价值的 77%都将以扇出型封装来生产,而这其中的 66 ...
全年业绩略超预期,现金分红比例60.59%
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-19 16:00
全年业绩略超预期,现金分红比例60.59% 平煤股份(601666.SH) 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年3月19日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格:12.22元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 36,044 31,561 33,325 34,443 35,409 分析师:杜冲 增长率yoy% 21% -12% 6% 3% 3% 执业证书编号:S0740522040001 净利润(百万元) 5,725 4,003 4,462 4,785 5,135 电话: 增长率yoy% 96% -30% 11% 7% 7% 每股收益(元) 2.44 1.71 1.90 2.04 2.19 Email:duchong@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 4.66 2.60 4.43 4.47 4.54 联系人:鲁昊 净资产收益率 23% 14% 14% 14% 14% 电话: P/E 5.0 7.2 6.4 6.0 5.6 P/B 1.3 1.1 1.0 ...
2023年全年营收利润持续增长,车端&执行器业务稳步推进
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-19 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of 62.66 CNY [1][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 19.73 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 23.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.15 billion CNY, up 26.6% year-over-year [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 showed strong performance, with revenue of 5.58 billion CNY, a 14.1% increase year-over-year and an 11.7% increase quarter-over-quarter [3]. - The company is consolidating its Tier 0.5 model, with continuous growth in customer share and value. It has maintained high growth in its interior and chassis businesses, while also ramping up production in air suspension and automotive electronics [3]. - The robotics business is progressing steadily, with plans to invest 5 billion CNY in a production base for core robotic components, focusing on electric drive systems [3]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 2.86 billion CNY and 3.96 billion CNY for 2024 and 2025, respectively [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of 19.73 billion CNY for 2023, with a net profit of 2.15 billion CNY [3]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 27.40 billion CNY, with a net profit forecast of 2.86 billion CNY [1][5]. - The company's P/E ratios for 2024 and 2025 are projected to be 25.5 and 18.4, respectively [1][3].
房地产行业点评:基本面下行,仍待政策起效
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-19 16:00
、 基本面下行,仍待政策起效 -房地产行业点评 房地产 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024年3月19日 [T评ab级le_:M增ain持] (维持) [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 分析师:由子沛 股价 EPS PE 简称 评级 执业证书编号:S0740523020005 (元) 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 保利发展 9.32 1.53 1.70 2.07 2.73 6.09 5.48 4.50 3.41 买入 Email:youzp@zts.com.cn 招商蛇口 9.49 0.41 1.06 1.31 1.67 23.15 8.95 7.24 5.68 买入 滨江集团 6.62 1.20 1.42 1.76 2.31 5.52 4.66 3.76 2.87 买入 分析师:侯希得 万科A 9.33 1.95 2.23 2.46 2.52 4.78 4.18 3.79 3.70 买入 华发股份 6.82 1.12 1.40 1.61 1.80 6.09 4.87 4.24 3.79 买入 执业证书编号:S07405230800 ...
2023年报点评:经营稳健,展望盈利上行
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-19 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a market price of HKD 13.44 [1]. Core Views - The company's profit performance exceeded previous expectations, with a revenue of HKD 34.8 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 12%, and a net profit of HKD 2.64 billion, reflecting a 22% increase [3][4]. - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts for 2023-2024, with projected profits of HKD 2.6 billion and HKD 3.2 billion respectively, while sales growth is anticipated to rebound in Q2 [2][3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix, which has impacted gross margins but benefited net margins due to scale [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: Revenue of HKD 31.1 billion, Net Profit of HKD 2.16 billion - 2023A: Revenue of HKD 34.8 billion, Net Profit of HKD 2.64 billion - 2024E: Revenue of HKD 40.0 billion, Net Profit of HKD 3.20 billion - 2025E: Revenue of HKD 46.1 billion, Net Profit of HKD 3.84 billion - 2026E: Revenue of HKD 53.2 billion, Net Profit of HKD 4.61 billion - Growth rates for revenue and net profit are projected at 15% and 20% respectively for the coming years [1][3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022: HKD 0.71 - 2023: HKD 0.86 - 2024: HKD 1.05 - 2025: HKD 1.25 - 2026: HKD 1.50 [1][3]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022: 39% - 2023: 35% - 2024: 32% - 2025: 28% - 2026: 26% [1][3]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022: 17.3 - 2023: 14.2 - 2024: 11.7 - 2025: 9.7 - 2026: 8.1 [1][3]. Market and Operational Insights - The company reported a sales volume of 8.21 million units in H1 2023, a 34% increase, with an average revenue per unit of HKD 2,075 [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from structural optimization and a rebound in average selling prices in 2024 [4]. - The company is also exploring new markets and services, including sodium batteries and battery after-sales services, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue in 2024 [2][3].
TIDES业务持续亮眼,24年非新冠业务有望维持稳健


ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-19 16:00
TIDES 业务持续亮眼,24 年非新冠业务有望维持稳健 药明康德(603259.SH)/医药生物 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年03月19日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格:53.41元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 39354.78 40340.81 39403.85 43631.07 49615.55 分析师:祝嘉琦 增长率yoy% 71.84% 2.51% -2.32% 10.73% 13.72% 执业证书编号:S0740519040001 净利润(百万元) 8813.71 9606.75 9845.00 11057.59 12925.37 电话:021-20315150 增长率yoy% 72.91% 9.00% 2.48% 12.32% 16.89% 每股收益(元) 2.97 3.24 3.32 3.72 4.35 Email:zhujq@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 3.58 4.51 4.07 4.13 4.57 分析师 ...
【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】宏观张德礼:经济开门红的结构特征——2024年1-2月经济数据解读
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-19 16:00
Economic Overview - The report highlights that the Chinese economy experienced a "good start" in early 2024, with notable performance in production, exports, and service sectors, while infrastructure investment showed marginal slowdown and consumption is recovering from a low base [2][10]. - Industrial production accelerated, with the industrial added value growing by 7.0% year-on-year in January-February, marking the second-highest value for the same period since 2019 [2][13]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector showed strong performance, particularly in high-tech industries, with significant year-on-year growth in electronic products, rubber and plastic products, non-ferrous metal processing, transportation equipment, and chemical raw materials, all exceeding 10% [2][13]. - However, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector saw a decline in growth to 4.6%, down from over 10% in the previous months, indicating potential recovery in production demand [2][13]. Service Sector - The service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing levels from the previous two years, driven by a rebound in travel and hospitality sectors [2][13]. - Key service sectors such as accommodation, information technology services, finance, and transportation all reported growth rates above 7% [2][13]. Consumption Trends - Social retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, although still below pre-pandemic levels, with restaurant revenues growing by 12.5%, exceeding pre-pandemic growth rates [2][13]. - Sales of automobiles and communication equipment improved significantly, while clothing and other goods lagged behind, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer spending [2][13]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% year-on-year in January-February, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments increasing by 9.4% and 9.0%, respectively, while real estate investment declined by 9.0% [2][13]. - Infrastructure investment showed a decrease compared to the previous year due to high base effects, but specific sectors like water and energy supply saw significant growth [2][5]. Employment and Economic Outlook - The employment situation remained stable, with urban unemployment rates slightly increasing but still below last year's levels, indicating a manageable labor market [2][13]. - The report anticipates that the economic momentum will continue to recover, supported by government policies and potential increases in long-term bonds and special bonds [2][13].
中泰证券晨会聚焦
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-18 16:00
【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】机械王可:未来已来——低空经济及 eVTOL 专题报告 [b_Suy 今日预览 证券研究报告 2024 年 3 月 18 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__:TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号:S0740517030004 电话: 今日重点>> 晨报内容回顾: 晨会聚焦 - 3 - 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 中泰证券股份有限公司(以下简称"本公司")具有中国证券监督管理委员会许可的证券投资咨 询业务资格。 。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。 本报告基于本公司及其研究人员认为可信的公开资料或实地调研资料,反映了作者的研究观点,力 求独立、客观和公正,结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。本公司力求但不保证这些信息的准确性 和完整性,且本报告中的资料、意见、预测均反映报告初次公开发布时的判断,可能会随时调整。 本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改,投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修 改。本报告所载的资料、工具、意见、信息及推测只提供给客户作参考之用,不构成任何投资、法 律、会计或税务的最终操作建议,本公司不就报 ...