Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aosaikang with a "Buy" rating [5][7]. Core Views - Aosaikang is experiencing a turning point in operations, with a forecasted return to profitability in the first half of 2024 due to the clearance of centralized procurement and the launch of new products [5][20]. - The company is transitioning towards innovation, with significant progress in drug development, particularly in the areas of third-generation EGFR inhibitors and Claudin18.2 [5][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Aosaikang, a leader in the digestive field, has faced challenges since 2019 due to centralized procurement and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a significant decline in revenue [17][20]. - The company is now poised for recovery, with innovative drugs expected to contribute positively to future performance [5][17]. 2. Traditional Business - The digestive business has been significantly impacted by centralized procurement, with revenue dropping from 33.7 billion in 2019 to 3 billion in 2023 [5][31]. - New products, such as Right Lansoprazole, are expected to drive revenue growth in the digestive segment [33]. - The oncology segment has seen a revenue decline from 10.2 billion in 2019 to 6.2 billion in 2023, but its revenue share is increasing due to the sharper decline in the digestive segment [35]. 3. Innovative Transformation - Aosaikang has partnered with Innovent to commercialize third-generation EGFR inhibitors, which are expected to achieve rapid market penetration [5][17]. - The company is advancing in the development of Claudin18.2 and IL-15 prodrugs, which are seen as promising therapeutic targets in oncology [5][3]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for Aosaikang are 16.7 billion, 19 billion, and 23.4 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory [5][6]. - The company’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is below the average of comparable companies, suggesting potential undervaluation [5].

Economic Growth - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The manufacturing sector saw a 9.4% increase in high-tech manufacturing added value, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate[13] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 423,222 billion yuan from January to October, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[23] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October amounted to 45,396 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[17] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 39.2%, while furniture and automobile sales grew by 7.4% and 3.7%, respectively, indicating a significant acceleration in consumer spending[20] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales reached 40,944 billion yuan, growing by 4.9% year-on-year[17] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.3% from January to October, exceeding the overall investment growth by 5.9 percentage points[27] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water) showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.3%[27] - Private investment accounted for 50.3% of total fixed asset investment, continuing a downward trend with a 0.3% year-on-year decline[23] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 12.3% year-on-year in October, a decline that widened by 2.9 percentage points from September[31] - The sales area of commercial housing in October showed a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, but the rate of decline improved compared to September[33] - In October, the average price of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 0.51% month-on-month and 6.2% year-on-year[33] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks may exceed expectations, posing potential threats to economic stability[35] - Macroeconomic performance may fall short of expectations, impacting overall market confidence[35] - Significant fluctuations in overseas markets could adversely affect domestic economic conditions[35]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" [6][11] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate industry is expected to experience a recovery process from liquidity constraints to price stabilization and ultimately a cyclical recovery [6] - The sales area and sales amount of new commercial housing have shown a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.8% and 20.9% respectively for the first ten months of 2024, which is an improvement compared to previous periods [2][3] - The report highlights that the decline in construction completion has narrowed while the decline in new starts has expanded, suggesting a potential passive destocking in the market [3] Summary by Sections Real Estate Development Investment - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to October 2024 reached 86,309 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with a monthly investment of 7,629 billion in October, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 18.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [2][3] Sales Performance - The total sales area of new commercial housing for the first ten months was 77,930 million square meters, with a sales amount of 76,855 billion, both showing a year-on-year decline of 15.8% and 20.9% respectively, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [2][3] Construction and Completion - The total construction area from January to October was 7.207 billion square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 12.4%. The cumulative new starts were 612 million square meters, down 22.6% year-on-year, while the completion area was 420 million square meters, down 23.9% year-on-year [3] Funding Sources - The total amount of funds in place for real estate development from January to October was 87,235 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%, with domestic loans and self-raised funds also showing declines [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: distressed real estate companies showing signs of recovery, leading companies maintaining land acquisition intensity, and local state-owned enterprises with stable diversified operations [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel [4]. Core Views - Tongcheng Travel is positioned as a leading OTA in the lower-tier market, focusing on strengthening its own supply chain to enhance competitive advantages [1][2]. - The online travel market in China is expected to reach a scale of 2.2 trillion yuan in 2024, recovering to 120% of the 2019 level, with an online penetration rate of 45.2%, indicating significant growth potential [2][31]. - The company benefits from strong backing by Tencent and Ctrip, which enhances its competitive edge through resource sharing and flow support [2][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel was formed through the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, ranking among the top three online travel platforms in China, with a focus on the lower-tier market and supply chain development [1][9]. Industry Analysis - The online travel market is projected to grow significantly, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by a few major players. The penetration rate for online travel remains lower compared to other sectors, suggesting room for growth [2][26][34]. - The company is actively expanding its user base in lower-tier cities, with 87% of registered users from non-first-tier cities as of Q2 2024 [2][34]. Competitive Advantages - Tongcheng Travel leverages Tencent's traffic and Ctrip's inventory to enhance its market position. The company is also diversifying its traffic channels and strengthening its app development [2][3][14]. - The company has established a robust supply chain, including partnerships with travel agencies and hotel management companies, to enhance its service offerings [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported a revenue of 11.896 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 81%. The adjusted net profit for 2023 was 1.554 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery post-pandemic [3][17]. - Forecasts for adjusted net profits from 2024 to 2026 are 2.6 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and 3.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yongyi Co Ltd (603600 SH) with a "Buy" rating [5][7] Core Views - Yongyi achieved record Q3 revenue with strong profit growth on a low base [1] - Overseas sales outperformed industry despite weak demand, driven by new clients and channels [2] - Domestic brand building is accelerating, with self-brand revenue up 67% YoY [3] - The company increased dividend frequency, demonstrating confidence in long-term development [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 1 34 billion yuan, up 38 79% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company grew 42 3% YoY to 98 million yuan in Q3 2024 [1] - Self-brand revenue accounted for 20% of total revenue in 2023, reaching 713 million yuan [3] - 2023 cash dividend payout ratio was 44%, with mid-year dividend introduced in 2024 [4] Overseas Business - Despite 7 6% decline in China's office chair exports in Q3 2024, Yongyi achieved 38 8% revenue growth [2] - Key new clients include Costco and Sam's Club, with shipments already underway [2] - Vietnam and Romania production bases provide competitive advantages in global supply chain [24][25] Domestic Strategy - 2023 marked the first year of aggressive domestic brand development [3] - Flow series flagship products successfully launched [3] - Online channels expanded to include TikTok and Pinduoduo, with GMV up 256% during 2023 Double 11 [33] Future Outlook - Revenue growth projected at 31%, 17 6%, and 13 8% for 2024-2026 [5] - Net profit growth expected at 8%, 27%, and 25% for 2024-2026 [5] - EPS forecast at 0 98, 1 23, and 1 54 yuan for 2024-2026 [5] Industry Context - China's office chair exports grew 15 8% YoY in H1 2024 [16] - US furniture retailers' inventory-to-sales ratio showed improvement in 2024 [17] - Key clients like HNI and Office Depot demonstrated improving performance [18][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronics industry [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector shows strong growth in advanced processes, while mature processes remain under pressure. TSMC's sales increased by 29.2% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since February, but with a rapid month-on-month increase driven by strong AI demand [2][17] - Memory prices are under pressure, and production capacity utilization is being adjusted downwards. HwaCom announced a reduction in production starting in Q4, with overall capacity utilization expected to drop to 80% [2][15] - The consumer electronics sector is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations of a slowdown in shipments. However, the "trade-in" subsidy policy in mainland China is expected to support TV demand [3][15] - AI demand remains high, with significant growth in AI server cooling solutions. Hon Hai's revenue reached a record high for October, with a year-on-year increase of 8.59% [3][15] - The passive components sector showed stable revenue in October, but is expected to enter an off-season in Q4 [3][15] Summary by Sections Semiconductor - Advanced process growth is slowing, while mature processes face short-term challenges. TSMC's October revenue increased by 29.2% year-on-year and 24.8% month-on-month [16][17] - UMC's Q4 capacity utilization is expected to drop to 66%-69%, below the Q3 average of 71% [16][19] - World Advanced anticipates a 10-12% decrease in wafer shipments in Q4 [16][19] Memory - Memory chip prices continue to decline, with HwaCom's production capacity expected to decrease to 80% [2][15] - Adata expects DRAM demand to stabilize in the short term, with long-term growth anticipated due to increasing memory capacity in electronic products [15] Consumer Electronics - The sector is entering a traditional off-season, with a forecasted decline in shipments. However, the "trade-in" policy in China is expected to support TV demand [3][15] - Panel shipments are expected to decrease, while optical component demand is also declining [3][15] AI & Foundry - AI demand remains robust, with significant growth in AI server cooling solutions. Hon Hai's October revenue reached a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 8.59% [3][15] - The AI chip sector is expected to see a slowdown in demand, but profitability is still projected to grow [3][15] Components and Power - The passive components sector showed stable revenue in October, but is expected to enter an off-season in Q4 [3][15] - PCB revenue reached a yearly high, aligning with traditional peak season performance [3][15]

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 宏 观 研 究 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 符合预期就是好消息： 美国 10 月 CPI 数据点评 事件： 10月美国CPI同比2.6%，预期2.6%，前值2.4%；CPI环比0.2%，预期和前 值均为0.2%；核心CPI同比3.3%，预期和前值均为3.3%；核心CPI环比 0.3%，预期和前值均为0.3%。 投资要点： 基数效应下10月CPI同比边际走强、结束此前连续6个月下降趋势，总体 符合市场预期：10月美国CPI同比较前值边际走强（2.4%→2.6%），而环 比（0.2%）与上月持平，同比读数走高主要源于23年10月基数偏低 （0.1%）。从主要分项看，食品项环比边际走弱（0.4%→0.2%）；能源 项环比降幅收窄（-1.9%→0%），与10月油价走势相关；核心商品环比走 弱（0.2%→0%），其中含二手车的运输产品（0.3%→0.8%）环比明显提 升，但服装大幅转负（1.1%→-1.5%），商品侧通胀压力总体可控；核心 服务环比略有收窄（0.4%→0.3%），其中住房租金项环比再度扩大 （0.2%→0.4 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rise in advanced packaging and active performance in the semiconductor sector, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Cambricon (+9.98%) and Loongson Technology (+9.86%) [2] - The report discusses the challenges faced by domestic computing chip companies due to the supply chain disruptions from TSMC and Samsung, but suggests that a potential return to domestic foundries could reshape the competitive landscape favorably for leading firms [2] - The emergence of new technologies such as "Test-Time Computation" in AI models is expected to increase demand for inference chips, potentially altering the current dominance of NVIDIA in the AI hardware market [3] Summary by Sections Section: Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies include Cambricon, Haiguang Information, Loongson Technology, and Shengke Communication in the domestic computing chain [7] - For data center hardware, companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Industrial Fulian, and Xinwei are highlighted as strong performers [7] Section: Market Trends - The report notes a strong upward trend in advanced packaging companies, with Yongxi Electronics seeing a 33.47% increase and Huatian Technology at 3.26% [2] - The report also mentions the IPO initiation of domestic GPU unicorn Moore Threads, which is backed by a team with extensive experience from NVIDIA [4] Section: AI Model Tracking - ChatGPT's traffic has reached a new high, with over 870 million visits, indicating strong growth in AI applications [5] - The report emphasizes the increasing download rates for AI applications, particularly for the Zhiyu Qingyan app, which saw a fivefold increase in downloads [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (first rating) [1] Core Insights - The pickled vegetable industry, particularly the pickled mustard tuber segment, has a mature development with a stable supply-demand structure and continuous upgrades in consumer demand [4][11] - The leading company, Fuling Mustard Tuber, has been driving price increases and market expansion, leading to significant growth in both volume and price [5][20] - The market is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" structure, with leading companies maintaining competitive advantages [25][28] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Development and Market Expansion - The pickled mustard tuber industry has evolved from a fragmented market to a more concentrated one, with significant growth in packaging and branding [8][11] - The total demand for pickled mustard tuber is stabilizing, with a CAGR of approximately 1.9% in sales volume and 3.6% in average price from 2015 to 2023 [4][13] - The retail market size for pickled mustard tuber in 2023 is estimated at approximately 74.33 billion yuan, with a CAGR of about 5.5% from 2015 to 2023 [13][20] 2. Competitive Landscape - The market share of Fuling Mustard Tuber has increased from 21.28% in 2008 to 36.41% in 2019, with the top five companies' market share rising from 46.15% to 72.24% during the same period [4][25] - The competitive advantages of leading companies include cost advantages from production regions, channel stickiness, and brand recognition [28][36] - The industry has seen a reduction in the number of small-scale producers, with Fuling's processing companies decreasing from 102 in 2007 to 37 in 2019 [28][36] 3. Pricing and Profitability Strategies - Fuling Mustard Tuber has led the industry in price increases, with a price range shift from 0.5 yuan per pack to 2.5 yuan per pack since 2008 [5][20] - The company's pricing strategy focuses on maintaining high profit margins while adjusting product specifications to manage costs effectively [15][20] - Recent adjustments in product structure and pricing strategies have aimed to stabilize sales volume and improve profitability amid fluctuating demand [20][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The new tax policies announced on November 13 aim to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, focusing on three main tax types: deed tax, value-added tax, and land value-added tax [1][6] - The adjustments in deed tax will lower the cost for homebuyers, particularly in first-tier cities, which is expected to stimulate demand for both new and second-hand homes [2][5] - The changes in value-added tax and land value-added tax are designed to reduce transaction costs for sellers and alleviate liquidity risks for developers, respectively [3][6] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Adjustments - The deed tax for purchasing new or second-hand homes has been optimized, with the threshold for lower rates raised from 90 square meters to 140 square meters for first-time buyers in first-tier cities [2] - The value-added tax exemption for second-hand homes has been expanded, allowing sellers of non-standard residential properties to be exempt from VAT if they have owned the property for more than two years [3] - The land value-added tax prepayment rate has been uniformly reduced by 0.5 percentage points across different regions, benefiting developers by improving liquidity [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the implementation of these tax policies and their impact on the real estate market, with a focus on companies that may benefit from these changes, such as JinDi Group and Xincheng Holdings [4] - It is anticipated that the stabilization of second-hand housing prices and the gradual recovery of demand will lead to a positive cycle in sales and supply chain liquidity [4]