行 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 02 月 12 日 业 研 究 机械设备 产业降本趋势显现，人形机器人与 3D 打印有望 碰撞火花 投资要点： 产业链降本趋势显现：钛合金粉末降价+核心零部件国产化加速进行。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 1）粉末：据南极熊了解，3D 打印用钛合金粉末的价格从去年 600 元/kg 降到现在 300 元/kg 以下，降幅达 50%。主要原因：1、得粉率： 2022 年威拉里核心产品得粉率创历史新高，平均提升 3%以上。2、钛 材：2024 年海绵钛市场呈下行走势，一级民品海绵钛价格从年初的 5.0 万元/吨左右下跌至年末的 4.2 万元/吨左右，价格跌至市场历史最低点。 3、惰性气体：以市面上最常用的气雾化制粉为例，气体成本占据了粉 末材料成本的 30%-50%；一方面粉末生产厂商使用智能一体化氩气回 收装备降低工业气体使用量，另一方面工业气体 2024 年价格下滑。 2）核心零部件：锐科激光与某央企签订 120 台 3D 打印激光器销 售合同，用于精密核心器件的生产制造。锐科激光此次销售 3D 打印 系列激光器是采用全新的设计，优化了功率监控系统，有效地抑制高 阶模，在结构更 ...

核心观点 证券研究报告|策略专题报告 产业经济 2025年2月12日 中国制造业"登顶"的路径 证券分析师： 李 浩 执业证书编号：S0210524050003 李刘魁 执业证书编号：S0210524050006 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 2 华福证券 华福证券 • 全球制造业格局的不可逆转变。中国通过提升制造业复杂度、构建完整产业链，已打破美国主导的"垄断分工模式"。美 国通过资本、技术、市场控制全球分工的模式已现疲态，长期无法遏制中国崛起。 • 资本过度逐利，经济和科技的发展反受抑制。金融资本追求利益最大化，通过金融市场定价，鼓励企业垄断，遏制资本开 支，最终反而抑制了科技和经济发展。 • 各地区制造业发展战略的短板有所不同：美国重控制&轻发展终而失控；欧洲重供应链&轻新产业，长期失去优势产业； 日本因全球分工模式持续空心化；韩国和中国台湾过于依赖半导体，未来可能面临冲击。 • 中国崛起或将带动全球重返效率优先。美国的全球化框架为了追求绝对话语权、控制力和垄断的回报率，但丢失的是效率 ，长此以往金融的繁荣为美国模式的衰落埋下了伏笔。伴随中国的崛起，全球科技和经济发展重回效率优先模式 ...

投资要点： 行 业 研 究 传媒 2025 年 02 月 12 日 传媒 阿里云的 AIDC 产业链 行 业 动 一、The Information 报道，苹果和阿里巴巴或将为中国 iPhone 用户开发 AI 功能 根据 The Information 报道，苹果与阿里巴巴合作，为中 国的 iPhone 用户开发人工智能功能。 阿里巴巴最新大模型已迭代至通义千问 Qwen2.5-Ma，已 在 1 月 29 日发布。 态 跟 踪 二、DeepSeek 算力需求大：用户访问量及日活数持续增长， 服务器资源紧张 根据 SimilarWeb 数据统计，截至 2 月 7 日，DeepSeek 近 28 天内的总访问量达 4.42 亿次，最高日访问量达 4900 万。 因需求火爆，DeepSeek 出现了： 1）"服务器繁忙，请稍后再试"的界面。 2）DeepSeek 于 2 月 6 日宣布暂停 API 服务充值，仅存量 充值金额可继续调用。 三、阿里云上架 DeepSeek 开源模型 阿里云作为杭州当地最大的云服务商，目前，阿里云百炼 平台、PAI Model Gallery 均已支持 DeepSeek-V3、Dee ...

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 02 月 10 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 地产信用边际修复，关注两会政策窗口期 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 国开行将持续为加大保障性住房建设和供给提供中长期融资支持；深 圳 1 月新建商品住宅网签销售 5090 套，同比增长 97.3%；上海 1 月新房市 场成交 3893 套，同比增长 8.13%，二手房成交 18389 套，同比增长 12.1%； 据北京住建委官网数据，北京 1 月二手住宅网签 12480 套，环比下降 42.1%； 重庆调整房产税政策，不再将市外人员购买普通住宅纳入征税范围；大连 拟调整公积金贷款政策，首付款比例降至 20%；2 月 6 日四川省政府正式 向成都市、攀枝花市、绵阳市、眉山市政府下放省级用地审批权。短期来 看：1）稳增长压力下，3 月两会、4 月政治局会议预计再次迎来地产政策 窗口期；2）万科风险逐步释缓，地产信用底部修复利好建材板块。中长期 来看：1）欧美降息通道已经打开，我国的货币&财政政策空间有望同步打 开； 2）24 年 9 月政治局会议明确提出要促进房地产市场止跌回稳，之后 存量房贷利率下调、契税下调等需求端 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's flagship product, Furmonertinib, is rapidly gaining market share with multiple indications, including first-line and second-line treatments for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), postoperative adjuvant therapy, and specific mutations such as PACC and exon 20 mutations [1][12]. - The company has shown significant revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 35.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 75.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 122% increase [14][4]. - The company is expanding its product pipeline through both internal development and external partnerships, including collaborations for RET inhibitors and KRAS inhibitors [3][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on developing third-generation EGFR inhibitors, with Furmonertinib being a key player in the market [1][12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with significant ownership by the founders [29]. Product Performance - Furmonertinib has demonstrated superior efficacy and safety compared to competitors like Osimertinib, with a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 20.8 months in first-line treatment [2][43]. - The product is also being evaluated for postoperative adjuvant therapy, with clinical trials underway [48][49]. Market Potential - The NSCLC market is substantial, with over 1.06 million new cases in China in 2022, and the company is well-positioned to capture market share as existing patents for competitors expire [30][39]. - The report highlights the potential for Furmonertinib to address unmet medical needs in specific mutation types, such as PACC, where no effective treatments are currently available [60][61]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 14.3 billion yuan in 2024, 17 billion yuan in 2025, and 20 billion yuan in 2026, indicating strong growth prospects [4][5]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease significantly, making it an attractive investment compared to peers [4][5].

华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 2 月 10 日 策 略 研 究 DeepSeek 热潮有望带动中国科技资产重估 投资要点： 本周市场表现强势，全 A 收涨 3.57%。从指数情况看，科创 50、创业 板指、中证 1000 领涨，仅中证红利下跌。从风格情况看，科技、先进制造 领涨，消费、金融地产涨幅靠后。本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少，计算机、 传媒、汽车领涨，建筑材料、煤炭、银行领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：市场情绪回暖，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股债 收益差下降至 1.7%，位于+1 标准差、+2 标准差之间。估值分化系数有所 上升。（2）市场情绪：市场情绪提振，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风格 占优，微盘股指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在 DeepSeek、华为 HMS、 云计算(27.5%、16.6%、16.9%) 。（3）市场结构：市场量能环比上升，计 算机、国防军工、传媒多头个股占比居前，家用电器、通信、轻工制造内 部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周 上升 373 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平均成交笔数较上周上升 128 万笔。陆 股通成交额排名 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][55]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong strategic foresight and execution capabilities, establishing itself in the first tier of the custom furniture industry. It has evolved from a single-category kitchen cabinet business to a comprehensive whole-house customization provider, with a diverse product range [4][7]. - The company is expected to face a growth bottleneck in 2024 due to declining prices impacting revenue, but it is poised for a rebound in 2025 as consumer demand recovers and government subsidies for home furnishings are implemented [24][31]. - The company has a robust multi-channel and multi-category strategy, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which are expected to stabilize profit margins in the coming years [38][43]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue and net profit projections for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024: Revenue of 57.73 billion, net profit of 4.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8% - 2025: Revenue of 62.25 billion, net profit of 5.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% - 2026: Revenue of 67.16 billion, net profit of 5.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [51][55]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 10x, which is below the average of 12x for comparable companies [55][56]. Revenue Growth and Market Position - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.7% in revenue and 20.7% in net profit from 2015 to 2023, with 2023 revenue reaching 61.16 billion [11][24]. - The company has maintained a stable customer base despite industry challenges, with a focus on enhancing customer value through a comprehensive product offering [24][34]. Strategic Development - The company is expanding its international presence, with retail stores established in several Southeast Asian countries and a focus on both B2B and B2C markets [28][34]. - The strategic shift towards whole-house customization and integrated service delivery is expected to enhance customer engagement and increase average transaction values [4][31].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical index has shown positive returns across six sub-industries, indicating strong performance [2][8] - The e-commerce health supplement market is projected to grow significantly in 2024, particularly in categories related to women's health, children's health, and health products for the elderly, with children's health products showing notably higher GMV growth [2][7] - The dual focus on nutritional supplements and preventive care is driving growth in the health consumption sector, creating a promising growth trajectory for the pharmaceutical and health industries [7] Group 2 - The medical services and medical devices sectors have performed particularly well, with medical services increasing by 7.47% and medical devices by 3.81% during the observed period [8][12] - The report notes that the chemical pharmaceutical sector has the highest valuation at 61.20 times PE-TTM, followed by biological products at 48.72 times [8][12] - The approval of the first domestic transdermal patch for asthma treatment by Beijing Tide Pharmaceutical is expected to alleviate the shortage of asthma medications for children and adults in China, marking a significant development in the pharmaceutical market [14][17] Group 3 - The expansion of the national medical insurance personal account system to 14 provinces allows for cross-province use of personal accounts for medical expenses, enhancing accessibility to healthcare services [18] - The report emphasizes the growing trend of "active health" among consumers, leading to increased demand for health supplements and preventive healthcare products [7][14] - The children's health supplement market is particularly highlighted for its growth potential, driven by a focus on enhancing children's physical health through nutritional components [7][14]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Hold" rating for the company [5][52]. Core Views - The company, Qianyuan Power, is positioned as a regional leader in hydropower in Guizhou, focusing on stable profitability from hydropower operations [13][14]. - The company has shown strong performance in cash flow management and is expected to benefit from the ongoing state-owned enterprise reform, which may lead to the injection of additional hydropower assets [5][31][39]. - The diversification into photovoltaic (PV) energy has enhanced the company's operational flexibility and growth potential, with significant investments already made in PV projects [4][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qianyuan Power was established in 1993 and has focused on the development, construction, and management of hydropower stations, primarily in Guizhou Province [3][13]. - As of Q3 2024, the company is 22.21% owned by China Huadian Corporation, a central state-owned enterprise [3][13]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1,990 million yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 17.71 billion yuan in 2024, and 25.96 billion yuan in both 2025 and 2026 [5][45]. - The net profit for 2023 was 265 million yuan, with forecasts of 252 million yuan in 2024, and 482 million yuan and 498 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][45]. Cash Flow and Investment Potential - The company has maintained strong cash flow, with an average available cash flow of 1.084 billion yuan per year from 2021 to 2023 [4][31]. - The ongoing state-owned enterprise reform is expected to create opportunities for asset injections, particularly in hydropower, enhancing the company's growth prospects [5][39]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts the company's earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.59 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.13 yuan in 2025 and 1.17 yuan in 2026 [5][52]. - The projected net profit margins are expected to stabilize around 30% in the coming years, reflecting the company's operational efficiency [5][45]. Valuation Analysis - The report compares Qianyuan Power with other major hydropower companies, indicating an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.41 for comparable firms in 2024-2026 [46][47]. - The company's P/E ratios are projected to be 24.3 in 2024, decreasing to 12.7 in 2025 and 12.3 in 2026, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to peers [5][52].

行 业 研 华福证券 工程机械 2025 年 02 月 10 日 工程机械 究 国内主机厂开门红超预期，积极财政政策支撑工 程机械需求 投资要点： 2025 年，各大主机厂迎来开门红。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 1、三一重工：2025 开年，三一泵路事业部斩获 11.2 亿元销售额， 海外市场同比增长 50%，路机板块强势冲高 60%。2、徐工机械：高端 露天矿山装备总价值 3.18 亿元，涵盖 90t、135t、400t 矿用挖掘机及 130t 级矿车等经典机型的系列高端露天矿山装备，集中交付各地客户。 全球最大吨位纯电动装载机 XC9108-EV、热销爆款 XC968-EV 齐排列， 驶出徐工绿色化、数字化装载机械制造基地，启程奔赴东南亚某矿区， 全面开启新年国际化征程的新篇章。3、中联重科：全国各园区开门红 活动期间，中联重科合计发车超 1 万台，总金额约 57 亿元，充分彰显 中联重科蓬勃向上的发展态势。其中，工程起重机械板块共发车超 850 台，总金额超 18 亿元；混凝土机械超 1200 台套、总金额超 10 亿元。 4、柳工：柳工 2025 年首批设备、服务万里行，装载机、挖掘机、平 地机、叉车、 ...