华福证券 行业研究 国防军工 军工本周观点：静待边际变化落地 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 本周三季报披露完毕，军工板块表现欠佳，本周指数相对跑输或因此而致。 以华福军工板块为口径，2024Q3 营业收入同比下滑 7.09%（2024Q2 同比 下滑 4.58%），归母净利润同比下滑 45.52%（2024Q2 同比下滑 24.02），三 季报业绩承压超过二季度水平。 团队成员 分析师： 马卓群(S0210524050011) mzq30555@hfzq.com.cn 盈利能力角度，2024Q3 军工板块毛利率为 19.6%，同比下降 2.16pct，但环 比仅下降 0.13pct，或表明现军工行业产品价格短期基本企稳；同期军工板 块净利率 3.7%，同比下滑 2.61pct，环比下滑 1.96pct，或因在整体营收下 滑的情况下，各项费用不会因此随之下滑，因此带动净利率有所承压。 相关报告 1、军工本周观点：三季报落地风险出尽—— 2024.10.27 2、军工本周观点：行情仍在持续——2024.10.20 3、军工本周观点：三季报前后或是最佳配置时点 ——2024.10.14 从资产负债表来看，2024 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.32 CNY [1][11]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.19 billion CNY in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.92% to 640 million CNY [2]. - The report highlights the stabilization and recovery of performance due to the improvement in impairment expectations, particularly after the company ceased to exert significant influence over Hongxiang Co., leading to a change in accounting treatment for its equity stake [2]. - The company is advancing in various business segments, including renewable energy and consumer electronics, benefiting from government policies and market trends [2]. - The low-altitude economy is identified as a key growth driver, with the company positioned as a leader in the eVTOL market, collaborating with major aviation research institutions [2]. Financial Summary - The company reported a gross margin of 25.46% and a net margin of 5.56% for the first three quarters, with a slight decline in both metrics compared to the previous year [2]. - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 8.9 billion CNY, 11.7 billion CNY, and 13.7 billion CNY respectively, with a target price based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025 [2][3]. - The financial data indicates a revenue growth rate of 8% for 2024, with a significant expected increase in net profit of 69% [3][6]. Business Segments - The industrial motor and drive segment is expanding into renewable energy sectors, while the consumer electronics segment is benefiting from government incentives for energy-efficient appliances [2]. - The report notes a positive trend in the production and export of major household appliances, indicating a robust market for the company's products [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation overview, indicating a projected EPS of 0.68 CNY for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 23.7 [3][6]. - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 56.77%, reflecting a stable financial position [1][6].

Macro Research Summary - The report highlights that policies are beginning to take effect, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing sector also shows positive signs, with the construction PMI at 50.4% and the services PMI at 50.1%, suggesting that both sectors are in a growth zone [1] - Despite the positive PMI data, industrial profits for large-scale enterprises fell by 3.5% year-on-year, totaling 52,281.6 billion yuan from January to September, indicating that the recovery in production has yet to translate into profit [1] - The report notes that the current challenges for enterprises include low factory gate prices and high raw material costs, which are causing cost growth to outpace revenue growth [1] - However, new industrial dynamics are showing resilience, and with the expected effectiveness of policies, industrial enterprises' profit expectations are likely to stabilize [1] - The report anticipates that the National People's Congress will convene from November 4 to 8, where more incremental policies are expected to be implemented, supporting the goal of achieving around 5% economic growth for the year [1] Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China introduced a new open market buyout reverse repurchase operation tool on October 28, which is designed to enhance liquidity in the interbank market [2] - This new tool differs from the traditional pledge-style repurchase, as it does not require collateral to be frozen, thus improving overall market liquidity [2] - The tool's maturity is capped at one year, addressing the current lack of medium to short-term liquidity instruments in the monetary policy toolbox [2] U.S. Economic Data Overview - The U.S. labor department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 12,000 in October, significantly below market expectations [2] - The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for Q3 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2%, down from 2.8% in Q2, but still above market expectations [2] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 was reported at an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.8%, slightly below market expectations, with consumer spending being the primary driver, increasing by 3.7% [2] - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook for the U.S., with unexpected declines in economic growth and employment, while consumer spending remains robust [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][32]. Core Insights - The PA6 and spandex prices are under pressure, with textile product exports declining year-on-year [2]. - As of November 1, the China Chemical Fiber Index is at 842.6 points, with a month-on-month decline of 6.8%. The China Basic Chemical Index has decreased by 4.3%, while the CSI 300 Index has dropped by 4.9% [2]. - The report suggests that domestic demand is improving alongside overseas destocking, which may enhance fiber demand. The supply side indicates that after this round of capacity expansion, the concentration of segmented products continues to rise, and the pace of future expansion is expected to slow down, leading to an upturn in industry prosperity [2]. Summary by Sections Prices - PA6 price is 12,550 CNY/ton, down 8.4% month-on-month. Spandex price is 24,000 CNY/ton, down 4.0% month-on-month. Other prices include viscose filament at 44,750 CNY/ton (0.0%), caprolactam at 10,575 CNY/ton (down 7.2%), and nylon short fiber at 14,250 CNY/ton (down 6.6%) [2][8]. Supply - The operating rates are high, with spandex at 87% and inventory at 49 days. Acrylic has an operating rate of 48.7% with 15 days of inventory. Viscose short fiber has an operating rate of 89% and only 4 days of inventory [2][18]. Downstream - In September, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 1.07 billion USD, down 10.7% year-on-year. The export value of clothing and accessories was 13.53 billion USD, down 5.1% year-on-year. In August, the inventory of U.S. clothing and fabric wholesalers was 28.885 billion USD, up 0.7% month-on-month [2][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in cloud business, particularly in AI infrastructure and solutions, with major players like Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Amazon AWS showing significant revenue increases [3][4]. - Capital expenditures are expected to continue rising as companies invest heavily in technology infrastructure to support growing demand for cloud and AI services [3][5]. - The semiconductor sector is experiencing robust performance, with AMD reporting record revenue driven by its data center division, which saw a 122% year-over-year increase [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 2.29% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped by 5.10% due to macroeconomic data affecting Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and Q3 earnings reports from tech giants [2]. - U.S. Q3 GDP growth was 2.8%, slightly below expectations, while consumer spending rose by 3.7%, marking the largest increase since Q2 2023 [2]. Cloud Business Performance - Google Cloud reported Q3 revenue of $11.353 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34.98%, with operating profit rising by 631.95% [3]. - Microsoft’s Q3 Intelligent Cloud revenue reached $24.092 billion, up 20.38%, with Azure growing by 33%, of which 12% was attributed to AI [3]. - Amazon AWS generated $27.45 billion in net sales, a 19% increase, with operating margin improving from 35.5% to 38.1% [3]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Google’s Q3 capital expenditure was $13 billion, primarily for server investments, with expectations for Q4 to remain steady [3]. - Microsoft’s capital expenditure for the third quarter was $20 billion, with a forecasted increase due to demand signals in cloud and AI [3]. - Amazon's capital expenditure for the first three quarters was $51.9 billion, with an annual estimate of around $75 billion [3]. Semiconductor Sector Insights - AMD reported Q3 revenue of $6.82 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, with the data center division achieving $3.5 billion, a 122% increase [4]. - The report anticipates AMD's Q4 revenue to be between $7.2 billion and $7.8 billion, with a projected non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 54% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in specific segments such as optical modules, PCBs, and server components, including firms like Zhongji Xuchuang, Hu Dian Co., and Industrial Fulian [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strong trend in innovative drugs and the transformation towards innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting the resilience of the industry despite recent market downturns [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Performance - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 2.9% during the week of October 28 to November 1, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.2 percentage points, ranking 29th among CITIC's primary industry classifications [18]. - Year-to-date, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index has decreased by 10.2%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 23.6 percentage points [18]. - The top five performing stocks for the week included Haooubo (+43.99%), Xiangxue Pharmaceutical (+30.54%), Hehua Co. (+28.22%), Hendi Pharmaceutical (+25.85%), and Huiyu Pharmaceutical (+25.04%) [18]. 2. Q3 Earnings Summary - For Q3 2024, the overall revenue growth for the pharmaceutical sector was +1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10% [16]. - The fastest revenue growth in Q3 was seen in innovative drugs (+34%), followed by medical consumables (+14%) and raw materials (+13%) [16]. - The highest net profit growth was recorded in raw materials (+84%), with medical consumables (+14%) and chemical preparations (+9%) following [16]. 3. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report suggests gradually increasing allocations to the pharmaceutical sector, anticipating potential excess returns post semi-annual reports [11]. - Key investment themes include innovation, recovery, and supportive policies, with a focus on innovative biopharma and companies with competitive advantages in international markets [11]. - Recommended stocks for November include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Kangfang Biotech, and WuXi AppTec [3]. 4. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector is currently in a phase of performance clearing and positive policy releases, suggesting that stocks under performance pressure may rebound [2]. - The upcoming results from the medical insurance negotiations are expected to favor innovative drugs, reinforcing the clear industry trend towards innovation [2]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the OTC market following recent policy clarifications regarding pricing autonomy for offline pharmacies [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance sector [5]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is leading in growth during the Double 11 sales event, with a 19% increase in sales compared to the previous year, outperforming other categories [11][12]. - The overall sales performance across major platforms shows significant growth, with over 1.6 million brands experiencing a sales increase of more than three times year-on-year [13][14]. - The report highlights the strong performance of vacuum cleaners, which saw a 47% increase in sales volume and a 39% increase in sales value compared to the previous year [16]. Summary by Sections Double 11 Sales Performance - The first phase of the Double 11 sales event saw the home appliance market expand rapidly to 28 billion yuan, with major appliances contributing 17 billion yuan, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth [11][12]. - The overall sales across beauty, home appliances, digital 3C, and apparel categories increased by 8% year-on-year, with home appliances leading the growth [11]. Weekly Investment Perspective - The report suggests focusing on the recovery of consumer demand in the second half of the year, particularly through the "trade-in" policy, and recommends companies like Haier, Midea, and Gree [21]. - It emphasizes the global competitive advantage of Chinese vacuum cleaner brands, suggesting a focus on companies like Roborock and Ecovacs [21]. Market Data - The home appliance sector experienced a decline of 2.4% this week, with specific segments showing varied performance: white goods down 5.1%, black goods up 20.8%, and small kitchen appliances down 1.1% [23]. - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum increased by 0.43% and 0.50% respectively compared to the previous week [23].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported robust growth in Q3 2024, with revenue of 754 million yuan (13.2% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 215 million yuan (17.9% YoY) [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.89 billion yuan (37.4% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 542 million yuan (66.4% YoY) [2] - Two new plasma stations under Paisfeco were successfully approved, enhancing the company's plasma supply capacity and supporting long-term growth [2] - The company's plasma collection volume reached approximately 700 tons in the first half of 2024, with a full-year target of 1,400 tons [2] - The blood products industry remains in a relatively high-growth phase, with the company expanding its overseas business, including exports to Pakistan and regulatory progress in Brazil [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 2.945 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 26.5% YoY [5] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to reach 790 million yuan, with a growth rate of 29.1% YoY [5] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 1.08 yuan per share [5] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is estimated at 21x [4] Industry and Market Position - The blood products sector continues to experience high demand, with core products such as intravenous immunoglobulin (pH4) remaining in short supply [3] - The company is actively expanding its international presence, focusing on both domestic supply and overseas exports [3] Growth Drivers - Successful approval of new plasma stations is expected to boost plasma collection and support future revenue growth [2] - Overseas market expansion, particularly in Pakistan and Brazil, provides additional growth opportunities [3] - The company's strong financial performance and consistent profit growth are key drivers for future valuation [4]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating with target PE ratios of 31x, 22x, and 15x for 2024-2026 [1] Core Views - Short-term profitability under pressure due to price wars, but long-term growth expected from hydrogen energy and small-power product channels [1] - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 580M, 770M, and 1.05B, with net profit of RMB 80M, 110M, and 160M respectively [1] - Company repurchased 329K shares (0.39% of total shares) for RMB 85M, signaling confidence in long-term development [4] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: RMB 380M (+6.26% YoY), net profit: RMB 50M (-31.45% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 revenue: RMB 120M (-8.82% YoY), net profit: RMB 10M (-61.10% YoY) [1] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3: 48.98% (-5.62pct YoY), net margin: 13.46% (-7.49pct YoY) [2] - Q3 gross margin: 46.09% (-7.36pct YoY, -3.64pct QoQ) [2] Downstream Drivers - Testing power: Q1-Q3 revenue RMB 283M (75% of total), driven by EV and energy storage sectors [3] - Hydrogen energy: Q1-Q3 revenue RMB 75M (20% of total), with strong customer loyalty and new product launches [3] - Power semiconductors: Q1-Q3 revenue RMB 11M (3% of total), expected to recover with inventory normalization [3] Financial Ratios and Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue growth: 8.9%, 33.5%, 35.9% [16] - 2024-2026 net profit growth: -34.2%, 44.0%, 44.7% [16] - 2024-2026 gross margin: 48.8%, 49.0%, 49.2% [16] - 2024-2026 ROE: 5.8%, 7.9%, 10.6% [16] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 PE ratios: 31x, 22x, 15x [1] - 2024-2026 PB ratios: 1.8x, 1.7x, 1.6x [6]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The "Guohe No.1" nuclear power demonstration project successfully achieved its first grid connection, marking a significant milestone in China's nuclear energy development [1] - The first BN-1200 sodium-cooled fast reactor in Russia is set to commence construction in 2027, which will be the largest of its kind globally, emphasizing the growing importance of advanced nuclear technologies [1][2] - Nuclear power is recognized as a crucial force in promoting green energy transition due to its clean, safe, and efficient characteristics, with annual utilization hours exceeding 7000, the highest among all power sources [3] Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Developments - The "Guohe No.1" nuclear power unit has a single unit capacity of 1.5 million kilowatts, making it the largest domestically designed nuclear unit in China [1] - The BN-1200 reactor will utilize spent fuel recycling technologies, significantly reducing long-term radioactive waste [2] Market Opportunities - Companies to watch include: - Jiadian Co., which leads in high-temperature gas-cooled reactor power equipment [3] - Guoguang Electric, providing key components for ITER projects [3] - Lanshi Heavy Industry, covering the entire nuclear fuel cycle [3] - Kexin Electromechanical, producing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products [3] - Hailu Heavy Industry, servicing various reactor types including fusion reactors [3] - Jiangsu Shentong, securing over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade valves in new projects [3] - Xianheng International, involved in nuclear operation and maintenance [3]