Group 1: US Economic Situation - The US government shutdown began on October 1, 2023, due to unresolved differences between the Republican and Democratic parties regarding healthcare subsidies, leading to uncertainty in economic data releases[11] - The ADP employment data for September indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the lowest monthly performance since April 2023, which reflects significant impacts from tariff policies on the labor market[12] - Despite initial declines, the US dollar index rebounded by 0.8% from October 2 to October 7, reaching approximately 98.5, close to the previous high of 98.55[12] Group 2: European Economic Challenges - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Cornu highlighted fiscal difficulties in the Eurozone, with the government aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.7% of GDP by 2026[17] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in September, indicating a contraction, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, suggesting that the worst impacts of tariff shocks on US production confidence may have passed[18] Group 3: Japanese Economic Policy - Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Kishi is expected to implement fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, causing significant fluctuations in the yen, which reached a three-month low against the dollar[25] - The Japanese economy faces challenges with high government debt levels, and the likelihood of further monetary easing is increasing as inflation pressures remain subdued[26] Group 4: China's Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.8 in September, driven by a rebound in new export orders, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50[31] - The production index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9, indicating a faster pace of production expansion, but domestic demand remains weak[31]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][12] Core Insights - Meta's Ray-Ban Display smart glasses have seen strong market response, with retail stores nearly sold out and trial appointments fully booked before November [1] - Apple is shifting focus from developing a low-cost Vision Pro headset to prioritizing AI glasses to compete with Meta, with plans to preview the product in 2025 and launch in 2027 [2] - The smart glasses market is expected to grow significantly, with global sales projected to reach 14.5 million units by 2025 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% from 2025 to 2029, potentially reaching 60 million units by 2029 [3] Summary by Sections - **Meta's Smart Glasses**: The Meta Ray-Ban Display smart glasses are experiencing high demand, with plans for increased supply and sales points [1] - **Apple's Strategic Shift**: Apple is reallocating resources to focus on AI glasses, indicating a significant change in product development strategy [2] - **Market Growth Projections**: The smart glasses market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with significant sales increases expected in the coming years [3] - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommendations include focusing on companies involved in foldable screen hinges, panel equipment, liquid cooling pumps, automation assembly, and 3D printing applications [3]

Group 1: US Economic Situation - The US government shutdown began on October 1, 2023, due to unresolved disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties regarding healthcare subsidies, leading to uncertainty in economic data releases[3] - The ADP employment data for September indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the lowest monthly performance since April 2023, which reflects significant impacts from tariff policies on the labor market[3][12] - Despite initial declines, the US dollar index rebounded by 0.8% from October 2 to October 7, reaching approximately 98.5, close to the previous high of 98.55 on September 25[3][12] Group 2: Eurozone and Japan Economic Challenges - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Maire highlighted fiscal difficulties in the Eurozone, with France aiming to reduce its budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP by 2026 and further to about 3% by 2029[4][15] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in September, indicating a contraction, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, suggesting that the worst impacts of tariff shocks on US production confidence may have passed[4][16][17] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi, is expected to pursue fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, causing the yen to depreciate significantly, with the USD/JPY exchange rate nearing 151, the lowest level since March 2023[5][20][21] Group 3: China's Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.8 in September, driven by a rebound in new export orders, although it remained below the expansion threshold of 50[6][23] - The new export orders index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8, indicating a short-term "export rush" amid the ongoing tariff negotiations with the US[6][23] - The production index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9, reflecting improved production expansion, although domestic demand remains weak[6][23][24]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5][11]. Core Insights - Meta's Ray-Ban Display smart glasses have seen a strong market response, with nearly all retail locations sold out and trial appointments fully booked before November. The company plans to double the number of sales points to ensure supply [1]. - Apple is shifting its focus from developing a low-cost Vision Pro headset to prioritizing the development of AI glasses to compete with Meta. The first version may not include a display and is designed to work with the iPhone, with a preview planned for 2025 and a release in 2027 [2]. - The smart glasses market is booming, with projections indicating that global sales of AI-enabled glasses will reach 14.5 million units by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% from 2025 to 2029, potentially reaching 60 million units by 2029 [3]. Summary by Sections Meta's Smart Glasses - Meta's Ray-Ban Display smart glasses are experiencing high demand, with all retail locations sold out and trial appointments fully booked [1]. Apple's Strategic Shift - Apple is reallocating resources to focus on AI glasses development, with plans to preview the product in 2025 and release it in 2027 [2]. Market Growth Projections - The smart glasses market is expected to grow significantly, with sales projected to reach 14.5 million units by 2025 and a CAGR of over 50% from 2025 to 2029 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing historical price highs due to dovish Federal Reserve stance and geopolitical uncertainties [11][12] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and ongoing demand [13][14] - New energy metals, especially cobalt, are witnessing price increases following policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [19][20] - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are facing price stagnation due to stable demand and increased inventory [22] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The market anticipates a rise in Federal Reserve rate cuts, contributing to gold and silver prices reaching historical highs [11] - August PCE data shows a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, supporting the Fed's confidence in further rate cuts [11] - Key stocks to watch include Zhongjin, Zijin, and Chaijin in A-shares, and Lingbao and WanGuo in H-shares [12] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply reductions from the Grasberg mine and ongoing demand [14][18] - Current copper inventory stands at 948,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 29,610 tons [14] - Recommended stocks include Jiangxi Copper in H-shares and Tongling Nonferrous in A-shares [18] New Energy Metals - Lithium supply is expected to see slight increases, while cobalt prices are rising due to supply tightness following policy changes in Congo [19][20] - Cobalt prices have increased by 20.3% for sulfate and 21.3% for electrolytic cobalt [19] - Key stocks to monitor include Zhongmin and Zangge for lithium, and Huayou and Tianyuan for cobalt [21] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with limited supply changes and steady demand from major manufacturers [22] - The report notes a decline in prices for antimony and tungsten, with a focus on inventory management [22] - Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth for rare earths [25] Market Review - The non-ferrous index increased by 6.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [25] - Notable stock performances include TianNai Technology with a 14.4% increase and Jingyi Co. with a 9.7% decrease [29] - The copper and aluminum sectors are noted for their low valuations, suggesting potential for growth [36]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][56] Core Insights - The "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" was jointly released by six departments, aiming for green building materials revenue to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026, prohibiting new cement and glass production capacity, and promoting the application of green building materials through government procurement [2][10] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize due to various supportive policies, including interest rate cuts and tax reductions, which are anticipated to enhance home buying willingness and ability [2][5] - The construction materials sector is likely to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential turning point in the production capacity cycle, with expectations of improved demand in the real estate market [2][5] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in stabilizing the real estate market, including the promotion of "good materials supporting good houses" and local housing support policies [2][10] - The report notes that from January to August, 21,700 old residential communities were newly started or renovated, accounting for 87% of the annual plan [2][10] - The report highlights that the PPI has been in negative growth for 33 consecutive months, indicating a need for supply-side reforms, which could benefit the building materials sector [2][10] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of September 26, 2025, the average market price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement was 348.3 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% [3][11] - The average ex-factory price of glass (5.00mm) was 1,235.7 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [3][16] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.08%. The building materials index decreased by 2.11% [4][47] - Among sub-sectors, glass manufacturing saw a slight increase of 0.42%, while cement manufacturing experienced a decline of 2.77% [4][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building materials companies showing signs of bottoming out [5][50]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations with a slight increase of 0.25% in the overall A-share market during the week of September 22-26, 2025, with the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext indices leading the gains, while the CSI Red Chip and CSI 1000 indices lagged behind [2][9] - The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors showed strong performance, while the pharmaceutical, medical, and consumer sectors faced declines [2][9] - The report indicates a decrease in the stock-bond yield spread to 0.5%, which is below the +1 standard deviation, suggesting a potential market peak in the near future [3][18] Group 2 - The gaming industry saw the approval of 156 new game titles in September, enhancing supply within the sector, with major companies like Tencent and NetEase receiving approvals for several key games [4][38] - The construction materials industry is set to benefit from the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which aims to promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and improve the supply-demand balance [4][39] - Nvidia announced a significant investment of $100 billion into OpenAI, indicating ongoing expansion in AI infrastructure, which presents investment opportunities in AI-related sectors [4][40] Group 3 - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the "Red October" market trend following the National Day holiday, with expectations of a market rally based on historical patterns [5][14] - The focus remains on sectors such as Hang Seng Technology, energy storage, satellite connectivity, and commercial aerospace, with recommendations for internal expansion within growth sectors [5][41] - The report highlights the potential for external rotation into consumer and large-cap blue-chip stocks for investors seeking lower volatility [5][41]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the US stock market experienced a pullback, with the Nasdaq dropping by 1% during the week. This was influenced by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, who noted that stock valuations are high and that rapid rate cuts could keep inflation near 3%, above the Fed's 2% target [2][9][11] - Economic data showed signs of improvement, with initial and continuing jobless claims decreasing. The final annualized Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, indicating a strengthening labor market and economy [2][10][11] - The core PCE inflation rate for August remained steady at 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, suggesting that tariff impacts are subsiding [2][10][11] Group 2 - In the asset price section, major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with NYMEX platinum rising by 8.60%, while the Korean Composite Index fell by 1.72%, marking the largest decline [3][34] - The report highlights that the Shenzhen Component Index had the highest increase among global equity markets, rising by 1.06%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 1.09% [3][39] - The report notes that the energy sector in the US stock market saw the largest gain at 3.35%, while the communication services sector experienced the largest drop at -2.91% [46] Group 3 - The report provides updates on significant economic data, including a rebound in the Eurozone M3 money supply and a decline in the UK industrial trends orders index [60][67] - It tracks important data releases for the week, including the US Q2 GDP final value, which was revised to 3.8%, and initial jobless claims, which fell to 218,000 [74]

Group 1 - The report highlights a trend towards promoting high-quality development and innovative applications in various industries, with a focus on optimizing traditional sectors like petrochemicals and transportation while encouraging emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and digital consumption [2][12]. - Financial policies are directed towards supporting key areas such as technological innovation and small and micro enterprises, providing funding guarantees for industrial upgrades [2][12]. - The report notes that the semiconductor sector has shown significant growth, with various sub-sectors like semiconductor silicon wafers and equipment experiencing notable increases in their market performance [3][27]. Group 2 - The industrial policy emphasizes controlling overcapacity risks in the petrochemical sector and supporting the transformation of outdated facilities, while also promoting new technology demonstrations [13]. - In the artificial intelligence sector, the report indicates a push for increased R&D and innovation, particularly in consumer products like smart devices and AI applications [14]. - The automotive and parts industry is under scrutiny for product quality, with regulatory bodies conducting extensive quality checks to prevent irrational competition and ensure safety [15][17]. Group 3 - The transportation sector is integrating artificial intelligence, focusing on optimizing computing power supply and enhancing data sharing across various transportation infrastructures [18]. - The financial sector is encouraged to enhance its support for the real economy, particularly in financing technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade [19]. - The report outlines a cultural and tourism consumption month initiative aimed at stimulating market activity through various promotional events and subsidies [20]. Group 4 - The report tracks asset prices, indicating that the semiconductor sector has outperformed others, with a weekly increase of 7.50% [24]. - Monthly performance data shows that the top-performing concepts include power batteries and lithium battery electrolytes, with significant increases of 20.44% and 19.97% respectively [28]. - Year-to-date performance highlights that concepts like optical modules and optical chips have seen substantial growth, with increases of 115.10% and 93.65% respectively [34].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][78]. Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing continued price declines, leading to negative profits for farmers. As of September 26, the pig price was 12.50 CNY/kg, down 0.19 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-breeding and purchased piglet farming were -74.11 CNY/head and -236.57 CNY/head, respectively, with week-on-week declines of -49.66 CNY and -37.25 CNY [2][11][36]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattened bulls have stabilized after recent increases, with calf prices at 32.36 CNY/kg and fattened bull prices at 25.96 CNY/kg, both unchanged week-on-week. The long-term supply of beef is expected to tighten, with a potential price upturn anticipated in 2026-2027 [3][38]. - The poultry sector is seeing mixed trends, with white feathered chicken prices experiencing slight fluctuations due to steady demand ahead of the holidays. As of September 26, the price was 6.90 CNY/kg, up 0.02 CNY/kg week-on-week [4][44]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Continued price decline in pig farming, with significant losses reported for farmers. The average weight of pigs being sold has shown a mixed trend, with group farms seeing slight increases while smallholders have decreased [2][11][24]. - The supply pressure remains high, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, although long-term adjustments in production capacity may lead to price recovery [36][32]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after a period of price increases, with expectations of tightening supply in the medium to long term due to previous losses in the industry [3][38]. - The price of calves has increased by 34% since the beginning of the year, indicating a potential recovery in the market [38]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing stable prices with slight increases in certain areas due to tight supply. The egg price has decreased slightly, reflecting market conditions [4][44]. - The ongoing avian influenza situation may impact supply chains, but there is potential for recovery in consumption due to government policies promoting domestic demand [47]. Agricultural Products - The Argentine government's recent policy changes regarding export tariffs have significantly impacted soybean meal prices, leading to a sharp decline followed by a rebound [4][58]. - The focus on enhancing grain production and food security is emphasized, with potential growth in agricultural technology sectors [54].