华福证券 轨交设备Ⅱ 2024 年 12 月 14 日 研 轨交设备Ⅱ 1—11 月份全国铁路客货运量稳步增长 有效推 动经济持续回升向好 投资要点： 1—11 月份，全国铁路旅客发送量创历史新高 1—11 月份，全国铁路旅客发送量完成 40.15 亿人次，同比增长 12.6%，年度旅客发送量首次突破 40 亿人次大关，创历史新高；旅客 周转量完成 14840.61 亿人公里，同比增长 7.8%。11 月当月，全国铁 路旅客发送量完成 3.04 亿人次，同比增长 8.8%；旅客周转量完成 981.35 亿人公里，同比增长 2.5%。铁路运输服务水平不断提升，在综合交通 运输体系中的骨干作用发挥更加充分。 1—11 月份，全国铁路货运发送量稳定增长 1－11 月份，全国铁路货运发送量 47.15 亿吨，同比增长 2.5%。11 月当月，全国铁路货运发送量 4.55 亿吨，同比增长 6.4%；货运周转量 3245.21 亿吨公里，同比增长 2.4%。关系国计民生的粮食、煤炭等重 点物资运输得到有效保障，为服务国民经济平稳运行、降低全社会物 流成本贡献了铁路力量。 此外，今年 1-11 月份，全国铁路固定资产投资累 ...

华福证券 机械设备 特斯拉机器人野外行走，中国机器狗首次交付海外电力 巡检 投资要点： 特斯拉发布 Optimus 最新视频，野外崎岖地形行走表现亮眼 近日特斯拉又发布了一个最新的机器人演示视频：Optimus 在崎岖 的室外地面上跌跌撞撞的行走，虽然坎坷，但是始终保持住了平衡， 没有摔倒。马斯克表示，Optimus 可以利用神经网络控制电动肢体，在 高度多变的地面上行走，Optimus 是在"蒙着眼睛"的情况下做这个动 作的，未把视觉纳入不平地形控制闭环的一部分。 中国首例，大型行业应用机器狗成功交付新加坡电网 日前，云深处与官方合作伙伴 Eastern Green Power(EGP)深度合作， 采用自研的 X30 四足机器人和数字化技术，成功交付新加坡能源集团 （下称 SP 集团）电力隧道巡检解决方案。据悉，X30 也是国内第一台 在海外电力系统落地应用的行业级四足机器人，SP 集团将该套隧道巡 检解决方案的机器狗命名为"SPock"。而就在近日，景业智能与云深处 签订战略合作协议，双方进一步深度联合面向核工业等行业需求拓展 多个特种机器人应用场景，并在未来积极合作探索研制特种领域的新 一代四足机器人、 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - The US microreactor developer NANO Nuclear Energy has signed multiple cooperation agreements, including with the US Department of Energy, the government of Togo, and Canadian startup Vert2Grow Energy Solutions [2] - Uzbekistan has signed several nuclear energy cooperation memorandums, aiming to establish productive cooperation and share experiences in atomic energy utilization [2] - Nuclear power is highlighted as a clean, safe, and efficient energy source, with an annual utilization rate exceeding 7,000 hours, making it a key force in promoting green energy transformation [3] Company Focus - **Jiadian Co Ltd**: The main helium fan is the only power equipment in the primary circuit of the fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, and its subsidiary Hadian Electric's nuclear main pump products lead in the nuclear power business segment [3] - **Guoguang Electric**: The company's diverters and blanket systems are key components of the ITER project [3] - **Lanzhou LS Heavy Equipment**: Covers the upstream nuclear fuel system, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel reprocessing [3] - **Kexin Electromechanical**: Manufactures high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power products and has achieved import substitution for new fuel transport containers [3] - **Hailu Heavy Industry**: Services include third and fourth-generation reactors as well as thermonuclear fusion reactors (ITER) [3] - **Jiangsu Shentong**: Secured over 90% of the orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and ball valves in China's new nuclear power projects [3] - **Xianheng International**: The company's products are already applied in the operation and maintenance of nuclear power fields [3]

华福证券 基础化工 2024 年 12 月 14 日 上 基础化工 行业周报：赢创公布大规模重组方案，华鲁恒升 尼龙 66 项目投产 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 0.36%，创业板指数下跌 1.4%， 沪深 300 下跌 1.01%，中信基础化工指数下跌 0.73%，申万化工指数下跌 0.09%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨幅前五的子行业分别为其他 塑料制品(2.12%)、食品及饲料添加剂(1.93%)、印染化学品(1.18%)、改性塑料 (1.15%)、粘胶(0.93%)；化工板块跌幅前五的子行业分别为钾肥(-3.97%)、磷肥 及磷化工(-2.03%)、膜材料(-1.9%)、橡胶助剂(-1.55%)、轮胎(-1.52%)。 团队成员 分析师： 李骥(S0210524080008) lj30599@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 周丹露(S0210524050020) zdl30566@hfzq.com.cn 本周行业主要动态： 赢创公布大规模重组方案。德国特种化学品巨头赢创工业集团 12 月 13 日 公布大规模重组方案，原先归于四个业务部门的业务线，将由执行董事会成 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Views - PA6 prices increased month-on-month, while spandex prices slightly decreased [2][12] - High operating rates maintained in the supply side [2][30] - Fabric exports increased year-on-year, while US apparel inventory rose slightly month-on-month [2][42] - Domestic demand improvement and overseas inventory reduction are expected to boost fiber demand [2] - Industry concentration is expected to increase after this round of expansion, with a potential slowdown in future expansion pace, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity [2] Price Analysis - PA6 price: 12,700 RMB/ton, up 2.0% month-on-month [2][11] - Spandex price: 23,750 RMB/ton, down 1.0% month-on-month [2][11] - Caprolactam price: 11,275 RMB/ton, up 5.4% month-on-month [2][11] - Adipic acid price: 8,150 RMB/ton, up 2.2% month-on-month [2][11] - Nylon staple fiber price: 13,950 RMB/ton, up 2.2% month-on-month [2][11] - Acrylic staple fiber price: 14,250 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month [2][11] - Viscose staple fiber price: 13,850 RMB/ton, down 0.4% month-on-month [2][11] - PA66 price: 23,900 RMB/ton, down 1.4% month-on-month [2][11] Supply Analysis - Spandex operating rate: 87%, inventory: 49 days [2][30] - Acrylic operating rate: 51.1%, inventory: 16 days [2][30] - Viscose staple fiber operating rate: 89%, inventory: 5 days [2][30] Downstream Demand Analysis - Textile yarn, fabric, and related product exports: $12.3 billion, up 23.7% year-on-year [2][42] - Apparel and clothing accessories exports: $130.9 billion, up 8.1% year-on-year [2][42] - US apparel and fabric wholesaler inventory: $281.61 billion, up 0.3% month-on-month [2][42] Investment Recommendations - Focus on differentiated nylon leader Juheshun and cost-advantaged spandex leader Huafon Chemical [2]

华福证券 证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工 2024 年 12 月 14 日 ने 基础化工 氯碱 11 月月报：液碱、PVC 价格走弱，氧化铝、 造纸需求同比增长 行情回溯 截至 12/13，中信氯碱指数收 1261.6 点，本月涨跌幅为 6.9%，中 信基础化工指数涨跌幅为 0.5%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为 0.4%。。 价格价差：液碱、PVC 价格走弱 据卓创资讯，截至 12/14，液碱价格 1030 元/吨，环比上月-3.3%， 片碱价格 3775 元/吨，环比上月 0.2%，液氯价格 244.5 元/吨，环比上 月-0.7%，乙烯法 PVC 价格 5850 元/吨，环比上月-1.7%，电石法价格 4750 元/吨，环比上月-4.0%，电石价格 2812.5 元/吨，环比上月 4.4%。 供给端：开工维持高位，供给整体充足 据卓创资讯，截至 12/12，烧碱产量 82.61 万吨，开工负荷率为 88.94%；烧碱企业库存 13.695 万吨。PVC 开工负荷为 78.91%。PVC 企业库存 27.438 万吨，电石开工负荷 72.02%。 下游需求：氧化铝、造纸需求同比增长，地产竣工仍在下行 团 ...

华福证券 基础化工 2024 年 12 月 14 日 ने 基础化工 煤化工 11 月月报：尿素、DMF 价格下跌，EVA 出口同比高增 投资要点： 行情回溯 截至 12/13，申万煤化工指数收 5836.4 点，本月涨跌幅为 0.4%， 申万基础化工指数涨跌幅为 1.8%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为 0.4%。 价格价差：甲醇价格环比改善，尿素、DMF 价格下跌 据卓创资讯，截至 12/13，甲醇价格 2170 元/吨，环比上月 8.0%； 醋酸价格 2793.3 元/吨，环比上月 3.8%；尿素价格 1839.9 元/吨，环比 上月-1.7%；醋酐价格 4880 元/吨，环比上月 1.5%；DMF 价格 4231.3 元/吨，环比上月-4.5%；合成氨价格 2617.9 元/吨，环比上月-5.5%；炭 黑价格 7350 元/吨，环比上月-8.7%；碳酸二甲酯价格 3700 元/吨，环 比上月-8.6%；醋酸乙酯价格 5253.3 元/吨，环比上月 0.2%；EVA 价格 10000 元/吨，环比上月 0.2%；三聚氰胺价格 5825 元/吨，环比上月-4.9%。 供给端：尿素继续累库，DMF 库存去化 团 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "Outperform" (强于大市) [5] Core Viewpoints - AI/ML workloads are driving rapid growth in demand for active copper cables (有源铜缆), with the market for active copper cable chips expected to grow from $100 million in 2023 to over $1 billion by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 70% [2][3] - Broadcom's AI revenue surged by 220% YoY to $12.2 billion, accounting for 41% of its total semiconductor revenue [8] - Broadcom expects the serviceable addressable market for AI XPUs and networking to reach $600-900 billion by 2027, with the company well-positioned to capture a leading market share [8] Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.34%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 1.75% [1] - Broadcom's stock surged by 24.43%, reaching a new high, with its market cap increasing by $206 billion in a single day, surpassing the $1 trillion mark for the first time [1] - In the semiconductor sector, Broadcom's weekly gain was 25.22%, while Marvell Technology rose by 6.40%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell by 8.43% [1] - In the internet sector, Google (Alphabet) rose by 8.65%, while Uber fell by 9.32%, and Airbnb dropped by 4.36% [1] - In the software sector, Oracle fell by 9.55%, Snowflake dropped by 8.70%, and Datadog declined by 9.26% [1] AI-Driven Opportunities - The increasing demand for AI/ML workloads is accelerating the adoption of active copper cables (ACC and AEC), which are expected to see significant growth in the coming years [2][3] - Broadcom's AI XPU and networking products are expected to benefit from the trend of hyperscale customers developing their own AI chips, with the company targeting a serviceable market of $600-900 billion by 2027 [8] - Key players in the active copper cable market include MACOM, Semtech, Spectra7, Astera Labs, Broadcom, Credo, Marvell, Maxliner, and Point2 [3] Company Performance - Broadcom's FY24Q4 revenue reached $14.054 billion, up 51% YoY, with semiconductor revenue at $8.23 billion (up 12% YoY) and infrastructure software revenue at $5.82 billion (up 196% YoY) [3] - Broadcom's FY25Q1 revenue guidance is $14.6 billion, representing a 22% YoY increase, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 66%, up 1 percentage point from FY24Q4 [3] - Broadcom's FY24 revenue grew by 44% YoY to $51.6 billion, driven by the integration of VMware and strong performance in AI XPU and networking products [4][8] Key Companies to Watch - Optical modules: Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink, TFC Optical Communication [9] - Copper connections: Wolong Electric, Shenyu Communication [9] - PCB: Wus Printed Circuit, Shengyi Technology [9] - Servers and components: Foxconn Industrial Internet, Envicool, Gaoneng, Megmeet [9]

华福证券 公用事业 2024 年 12 月 14 日 नी 公用事业 周报（12.9-12.13）：二批次农村能源革命试点 公布，分布式光伏开发有望提速，节水减排促进 降碳 投资要点： 行情回顾：12 月 9 日-12 月 13 日，电力板块上涨 0.02%，燃气、水务、环 保板块分别下跌 1.00%、1.15%、1.20%，同期沪深 300 指数下跌 1.03%。 团队成员 分析师： 严家源(S0210524050013) yjy30561@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 尚硕(S0210524050023) ss30574@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 闫燕燕(S0210123070115) yyy30238@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、周报（12.02-06）：新型经营主体助力构建新 型 电力系统，世界在役最大火电厂致力于打造能源 超市——2024.12.08 2、周报（11.25-11.29）：漳州 1 号投产，CCUS 市场化&商业化提速，垃圾焚烧下半场之提标改 造——2024.12.01 3、【华福电力公用】电力行业 2025 年度投资策 略：纲举目张，助推双碳——2024.11. ...

华福证券 56019 煤炭 高库存下煤价承压，关注高股息标的提估值机会 投资要点： 动力煤 截至 2024 年 12 月 13 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 790 元/吨， 周环比-22 元/吨（-2.7%）。产地价格大跌，晋陕蒙三省煤矿开工率为 84.5%，周环比+0.6pct。本周电厂日耗小涨、库存小跌，煤企、港口库 存微涨；非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率微涨，仍处于历史同期偏高水 平，截至 12 月 12 日，甲醇开工率为 87.4%，周环比+0.6pct，年同比 +9.8pct；截至 12 月 11 日，尿素开工率为 82.4%，周环比+0.1pct，年 同比+1.9pct。 焦煤 截至 12 月 13 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1620 元/吨，环比持平，产 地价格相对平稳。当前处开工淡季，铁水产量环比微跌，样本钢厂煤 焦库存小涨，随着一揽子政策陆续落地，焦煤价格无需悲观。本周焦 炭价格小跌、螺纹钢价格持平，截至 12 月 13 日，山西临汾一级冶金 焦出厂价 1700 元/吨，环比-50 元/吨（-2.9%），螺纹钢现货价格 3410 元，环比持平，焦炭第四轮提降落地，大型焦化开工率微涨，截至 ...