Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][68]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the recovery of housing demand is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for improved purchasing willingness and capacity due to declining interest rates and monetary policies [3][5]. - The report indicates that the construction materials sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, driven by the stabilization of the real estate market and supportive government policies [3][5]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is entering a bottoming phase after three years of decline, with increased sensitivity to policy easing [3][5]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report discusses recent government meetings and initiatives aimed at improving housing security and stimulating the real estate market, including measures in Chongqing and Shanghai [3][11]. - It notes significant increases in housing transaction volumes in major cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate sector [3][11]. High-Frequency Data - As of February 14, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 388.6 CNY/ton, showing a 0.6% decrease week-on-week but a 12.4% increase year-on-year [4][12]. - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1347.1 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week but down 33.4% year-on-year [4][22]. Sector Review - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.30%, while the construction materials index increased by only 0.22%, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [4][54]. - Among sub-sectors, cement products and fiberglass manufacturing showed positive growth, while glass manufacturing experienced a decline [4][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term potential, and leading cyclical construction material companies [5][68].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the VLCC market is under pressure due to slow cargo release and oversupply of tonnage, while the medium to long-term outlook benefits from trade flow restructuring and capacity shortages, suggesting potential upward price movements [7] - The report highlights that the demand for medium-sized tankers in the Mediterranean is improving, leading to a steady increase in freight rates [7] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, while also keeping an eye on China Merchants Jinling [7] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Market - In the seventh week of 2025, the average TCE for VLCC ships was $40,122 per day, down 16.5% month-on-month and down 27.8% year-on-year [10] - The BDTI composite index averaged 897 points, remaining flat month-on-month but down 31.7% year-on-year [10] - The average TCE for LR2 ships was $22,064 per day, up 27.4% month-on-month but down 66.6% year-on-year [19] LNG Transportation Market - In the seventh week of 2025, the spot freight rates for 174,000 cubic meter LNG carriers were $9,000 per day, up 20% month-on-month but down 86.4% year-on-year [40] - The average price of LNG in China was reported at 4,235 RMB per ton, up 2.1% month-on-month and up 9.1% year-on-year [46] - The total LNG fleet size reached 120.1 million cubic meters, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year [55]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][31] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see opportunities on the right side, with a focus on smart driving as a significant application of AI, leading to a competitive landscape among automakers [5][10] - Recent policies, such as trade-in incentives and local subsidies, are anticipated to support overall sales growth, with the industry expected to emerge from a seasonal downturn [5][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of smart driving technology and its integration into vehicles, predicting a shift from traditional manufacturing to technology-driven enterprises [5][10] Summary by Sections Recent Market Trends - The automotive index rose by 1.2%, ranking 15th out of 31 sectors [2] - Retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 31% year-on-year, while wholesale remained flat [4] - Significant partnerships and strategic plans were announced by major players, including BYD and Changan [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests actively participating in the automotive sector, particularly focusing on leading companies such as BYD, Geely, and Li Auto [5][11] - The smart driving sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of a competitive arms race among automakers [5][10] Company-Specific Insights - BYD is set to enhance its smart driving capabilities and maintain its electric vehicle advantage with new model launches [6] - Geely is expected to achieve profitability in its new energy segment and is preparing to launch several new models [6] - Xiaomi is advancing its AI strategy and plans to increase production capacity for its automotive division [6] - Other companies like Seres and Ideal Auto are also positioned for growth with new product launches and market expansions [6][9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that value and dividend strategies performed relatively better in January, with a recommendation to continue monitoring these strategies in February [1][2]. Multi-Strategy Stock Selection - The multi-strategy stock selection strategy recorded an absolute return of -2.93% in January, underperforming the CSI All Share Index by -0.46%. The strategy allocated higher weights to value and growth stock selection strategies [2][29]. - The multi-strategy stock selection portfolio consisted of 49 stocks, with a significant concentration in the coal, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors. The average market capitalization of the stocks in the portfolio was approximately 1228.38 billion [22][29]. Value Stock Selection Strategy - The value stock selection strategy achieved an absolute return of -1.26% in January, with an excess return of 1.15% relative to the National Value Index. The strategy was analyzed by breaking it down into single PB-ROE factors and combinations with four other factors, with the combination including growth factors yielding the best performance at 0.49% [4][44]. - The latest holdings in the value stock selection strategy included 30 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 62.91 billion. The portfolio was concentrated in the basic chemical and transportation sectors [38][41]. High-Quality Stock Selection Strategy - The high-quality stock selection strategy included 20 stocks, primarily concentrated in the food and beverage sector, which accounted for approximately 46% of the portfolio. The strategy recorded an absolute return of -4.28% in January, underperforming the CSI All Share Index by -6.03% [5][63]. - The average market capitalization of the stocks in the high-quality selection strategy was 1829.95 billion, with significant representation from the pharmaceutical and household appliance sectors [58][61]. Clean Reversal Stock Selection Strategy - The clean reversal stock selection strategy focused on the coal industry, selecting 10 stocks within this sector. The strategy recorded an absolute return of -4.58% in January, underperforming the CSI All Share Index by -2.15% [6][34]. "Dividend+" Preferred Stock Strategy - The "Dividend+" preferred stock strategy achieved an absolute return of -1.94% in January, with an excess return of 0.55% relative to the CSI All Share Index. The strategy has shown an annualized absolute return of 14.31% since January 2015 [7][50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform Market" (maintained rating) [1][59] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the framework for bank stock investment research, emphasizing the drivers of Price-to-Book (PB) recovery, which include rising Return on Equity (ROE), declining dividend yields, and increasing dividend payout ratios [4][5][6] - The report highlights that the ROE can be predicted through its components, including net interest margin, non-interest income, credit costs, and management fees, all adjusted for leverage [9][18] - It notes that the cash dividend payout ratio of Chinese banks, exemplified by China Merchants Bank's 35% in 2023, has room for improvement compared to some overseas banks [4][48] Summary by Sections ROE Upward Trend - ROE is defined as ROA multiplied by leverage, which is further broken down into net interest margin, non-interest income, credit costs, and management fees [9][18] - The report provides historical data showing the trends of PB and ROE for China Merchants Bank from 2013 to 2024, indicating a correlation between the two metrics [11][15] Declining Dividend Yield - The report states that the dividend yield is influenced by the necessary return rate of funds and risk premiums, with potential factors for a decline in dividend yield including a decrease in necessary return rates and a narrowing of risk premiums [39][40] - Historical data illustrates the relationship between dividend yield and risk premiums, showing significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023 [41][42] Increasing Dividend Payout Ratio - The report emphasizes that there is potential for increasing the cash dividend payout ratio among Chinese banks, with a comparative analysis showing that China Merchants Bank's ratio is lower than that of several international banks [48][49]

行 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 02 月 12 日 业 研 究 机械设备 产业降本趋势显现，人形机器人与 3D 打印有望 碰撞火花 投资要点： 产业链降本趋势显现：钛合金粉末降价+核心零部件国产化加速进行。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 1）粉末：据南极熊了解，3D 打印用钛合金粉末的价格从去年 600 元/kg 降到现在 300 元/kg 以下，降幅达 50%。主要原因：1、得粉率： 2022 年威拉里核心产品得粉率创历史新高，平均提升 3%以上。2、钛 材：2024 年海绵钛市场呈下行走势，一级民品海绵钛价格从年初的 5.0 万元/吨左右下跌至年末的 4.2 万元/吨左右，价格跌至市场历史最低点。 3、惰性气体：以市面上最常用的气雾化制粉为例，气体成本占据了粉 末材料成本的 30%-50%；一方面粉末生产厂商使用智能一体化氩气回 收装备降低工业气体使用量，另一方面工业气体 2024 年价格下滑。 2）核心零部件：锐科激光与某央企签订 120 台 3D 打印激光器销 售合同，用于精密核心器件的生产制造。锐科激光此次销售 3D 打印 系列激光器是采用全新的设计，优化了功率监控系统，有效地抑制高 阶模，在结构更 ...

核心观点 证券研究报告|策略专题报告 产业经济 2025年2月12日 中国制造业"登顶"的路径 证券分析师： 李 浩 执业证书编号：S0210524050003 李刘魁 执业证书编号：S0210524050006 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 2 华福证券 华福证券 • 全球制造业格局的不可逆转变。中国通过提升制造业复杂度、构建完整产业链，已打破美国主导的"垄断分工模式"。美 国通过资本、技术、市场控制全球分工的模式已现疲态，长期无法遏制中国崛起。 • 资本过度逐利，经济和科技的发展反受抑制。金融资本追求利益最大化，通过金融市场定价，鼓励企业垄断，遏制资本开 支，最终反而抑制了科技和经济发展。 • 各地区制造业发展战略的短板有所不同：美国重控制&轻发展终而失控；欧洲重供应链&轻新产业，长期失去优势产业； 日本因全球分工模式持续空心化；韩国和中国台湾过于依赖半导体，未来可能面临冲击。 • 中国崛起或将带动全球重返效率优先。美国的全球化框架为了追求绝对话语权、控制力和垄断的回报率，但丢失的是效率 ，长此以往金融的繁荣为美国模式的衰落埋下了伏笔。伴随中国的崛起，全球科技和经济发展重回效率优先模式 ...

投资要点： 行 业 研 究 传媒 2025 年 02 月 12 日 传媒 阿里云的 AIDC 产业链 行 业 动 一、The Information 报道，苹果和阿里巴巴或将为中国 iPhone 用户开发 AI 功能 根据 The Information 报道，苹果与阿里巴巴合作，为中 国的 iPhone 用户开发人工智能功能。 阿里巴巴最新大模型已迭代至通义千问 Qwen2.5-Ma，已 在 1 月 29 日发布。 态 跟 踪 二、DeepSeek 算力需求大：用户访问量及日活数持续增长， 服务器资源紧张 根据 SimilarWeb 数据统计，截至 2 月 7 日，DeepSeek 近 28 天内的总访问量达 4.42 亿次，最高日访问量达 4900 万。 因需求火爆，DeepSeek 出现了： 1）"服务器繁忙，请稍后再试"的界面。 2）DeepSeek 于 2 月 6 日宣布暂停 API 服务充值，仅存量 充值金额可继续调用。 三、阿里云上架 DeepSeek 开源模型 阿里云作为杭州当地最大的云服务商，目前，阿里云百炼 平台、PAI Model Gallery 均已支持 DeepSeek-V3、Dee ...

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 02 月 10 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 地产信用边际修复，关注两会政策窗口期 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 国开行将持续为加大保障性住房建设和供给提供中长期融资支持；深 圳 1 月新建商品住宅网签销售 5090 套，同比增长 97.3%；上海 1 月新房市 场成交 3893 套，同比增长 8.13%，二手房成交 18389 套，同比增长 12.1%； 据北京住建委官网数据，北京 1 月二手住宅网签 12480 套，环比下降 42.1%； 重庆调整房产税政策，不再将市外人员购买普通住宅纳入征税范围；大连 拟调整公积金贷款政策，首付款比例降至 20%；2 月 6 日四川省政府正式 向成都市、攀枝花市、绵阳市、眉山市政府下放省级用地审批权。短期来 看：1）稳增长压力下，3 月两会、4 月政治局会议预计再次迎来地产政策 窗口期；2）万科风险逐步释缓，地产信用底部修复利好建材板块。中长期 来看：1）欧美降息通道已经打开，我国的货币&财政政策空间有望同步打 开； 2）24 年 9 月政治局会议明确提出要促进房地产市场止跌回稳，之后 存量房贷利率下调、契税下调等需求端 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's flagship product, Furmonertinib, is rapidly gaining market share with multiple indications, including first-line and second-line treatments for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), postoperative adjuvant therapy, and specific mutations such as PACC and exon 20 mutations [1][12]. - The company has shown significant revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 35.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 75.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 122% increase [14][4]. - The company is expanding its product pipeline through both internal development and external partnerships, including collaborations for RET inhibitors and KRAS inhibitors [3][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on developing third-generation EGFR inhibitors, with Furmonertinib being a key player in the market [1][12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with significant ownership by the founders [29]. Product Performance - Furmonertinib has demonstrated superior efficacy and safety compared to competitors like Osimertinib, with a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 20.8 months in first-line treatment [2][43]. - The product is also being evaluated for postoperative adjuvant therapy, with clinical trials underway [48][49]. Market Potential - The NSCLC market is substantial, with over 1.06 million new cases in China in 2022, and the company is well-positioned to capture market share as existing patents for competitors expire [30][39]. - The report highlights the potential for Furmonertinib to address unmet medical needs in specific mutation types, such as PACC, where no effective treatments are currently available [60][61]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 14.3 billion yuan in 2024, 17 billion yuan in 2025, and 20 billion yuan in 2026, indicating strong growth prospects [4][5]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease significantly, making it an attractive investment compared to peers [4][5].