医药生物 2025 年 05 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 入 特发性肺纤维化 IPF：百亿市场潜力，建议关注 伊非尼酮（东阳光长江药业） 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 5 月 19 日- 2025 年 5 月 23 日）中信医药指 数上涨 1.92%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.1pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 2 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 4.7%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.0pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 5 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：三生国建 （+99.96%）、海辰药业（+51.55%）、舒泰神（+49.23%）、永安药业（+45.32%）、 一心堂（+37.95%）。 特发性肺纤维化：研发进展沉寂近十年，BI PDE4B 实现突破，建议 关注相关管线价值。1）特发性肺纤维化为病因不明的罕见病：最终会导致 呼吸衰竭而死亡，患者诊断后中位生存期仅 2-3 年；2）目前 IPF 治疗缺乏 有效治疗手段：全球获批药物仅两款，吡非尼酮及尼达尼布，全球市场规 模超过 40 亿美元。尼达尼布中国专利到期，海外专利预计 26 年到期，吡 非尼酮专利已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing price increases, with wood pulp paper companies announcing price hikes for various paper products starting from May 21, 2025 [2] - The report highlights a positive outlook for new consumption sub-sectors, including personal care, IP cultural products, new tobacco, smart glasses, and pet-related products [2] - Following the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S., there is a recommendation to focus on the recovery of the export chain [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - In April, residential construction area decreased by 26% year-on-year, and residential sales area fell by 3.5% year-on-year [6] - Retail sales of furniture increased by 26.9% year-on-year in April, while sales in building materials and home furnishing markets decreased by 2.52% [6][39] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the customized home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home and Sophia [6] Paper and Packaging - As of May 23, 2025, prices for various paper products show mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5162.5 CNY/ton and boxboard paper at 3525.4 CNY/ton [6][50] - The report recommends companies with integrated wood pulp and paper operations, such as Sun Paper, and those with strong domestic sales expectations like Huawang Technology [6] - The report notes a 7.6% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in the paper industry for the first four months of 2025 [6][64] Light Industry Consumption - The approval of new national standards for disposable sanitary products is expected to benefit compliant leading brands [6] - The report highlights the strong performance of personal care e-commerce in April and suggests focusing on brands like Dengkang Oral Care and Baiya [6] - The report also mentions the positive outlook for cultural products, recommending companies like Morning Glory [6] Export Chain - In April, exports of certain products like thermos cups increased by 7.34%, while pet food exports decreased by 9.08% [6] - The report anticipates a significant effect from the temporary suspension of tariffs, benefiting companies with robust domestic and international production capabilities [6] New Tobacco - The report notes the potential for new tobacco products to gain traction as international tobacco companies launch HNB products [6] - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the new tobacco sector, such as Smoore International, which has strong partnerships with major clients [6] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is also noted for outperforming the market, with specific companies showing significant stock price increases [6][29] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Anta and Li Ning in the sportswear segment [6]

行 业 研 究 汽车 2025 年 05 月 25 日 小鹏汽车预计 Q4 盈利 小米 YU7 发布 究 报 涨跌幅后五名：兆丰股份、日盈电子、美力科技、嵘泰股份、双 林股份。 投资要点： 本周专题：小鹏汽车预计 Q4 盈利 小米 YU7 发布 行 业 定 期 报 告 5 月 21 日，小鹏汽车发布 2025 年第一季度财报。小鹏汽车第一季 度营收 158.1 亿元，同比增长 141.5%；净亏损 6.6 亿元，2024 年第四 季度净亏损 13.3 亿元，较上一季度亏损收窄；总交付量 94008 辆，同 比增加 330.8%；毛利率为 15.6%，2024 年同期为 12.9%，而 2024 年第 四季度为 14.4%。 AI+汽车、人形机器人与汽车产业深度的融合以及海外市场，将成 为小鹏汽车的三条增长曲线。小鹏汽车预计在 2025 年实现销量同比翻 倍以上的增长，并在第四季度实现盈利，全年达到规模性自由现金流 转正。 5 月 22 日，小米汽车发布第二款新车小米 YU7，该车定位豪华高 性能 SUV，将在 7 月份正式上市。小米 YU7 延续了 SU7 的家族设计 语言，同时针对 SUV 车型的特点进行了 ...

行 家用电器 2025 年 05 月 25 日 业 研 究 家用电器 4 月家空内销增长平稳，出口端开始受关税有一 定影响——25W21 周观点 投资要点： 原材料涨价；需求不及预期；汇率波动等。 4 月家空内销增长平稳，出口端开始受关税有一定影响 行 业 定 期 报 告 4 月家空内销增长平稳，出口端开始受关税有一定影响：据产业 在线监测数据显示，2025 年 4 月中国家用空调生产 2242 万台，同比 +1.9%；销售 2257.9 万台，同比+2.0%。其中内销规模 1275.8 万台， 同比+3.7%；出口规模 982.1 万台，同比-0.2%。库存 1710 万台，同比 +1.4%。国内开始步入内销旺季，国补+618 周期开始催化，关注后续 内销数据变化，出口则受关税以及 Q1 提前备货的影响，略有下滑。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅+1.1%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别+2.2%/-2.9%/+0.7%/-1.8%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝 环比上周分别+0.64%、-1.48%。 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅-0.11%，其中纺织制造涨跌幅-2.69%， 服装家纺涨跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Insights - In April, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 4.7%, with hydropower shifting from growth to decline, while the decline in thermal power remained stable [3][20]. - The Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau has solicited opinions on a competitive allocation management method for renewable energy projects, which will allow all grid-connected electricity to enter the power market [4][64]. - Shanghai is accelerating its green fuel transition, focusing on biomass fuel research and the establishment of green methanol production bases [5][71]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption and Generation - In April, total electricity consumption reached 772.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with industrial consumption showing varied growth rates across sectors [3][20]. - The first industry saw a significant increase in electricity consumption by 13.8%, while the second industry grew by 3.0% and the third industry by 9.0% [19][20]. - Hydropower generation decreased by 6.5% year-on-year, while nuclear power and wind power saw increases of 12.4% and 12.7%, respectively [20][40]. Policy Developments - The Inner Mongolia competitive allocation management method aims to standardize the pricing and allocation of renewable energy projects, enhancing market efficiency and encouraging participation from various enterprises [4][64][65]. - Shanghai's initiatives include the development of biomass fuel and the integration of agricultural waste into green methanol production, supported by new technology research guidelines [5][71][74]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the thermal power sector, such as Jiangsu Guoxin, and suggests cautious investment in others like Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy [5]. - For the hydropower sector, it recommends companies like Yangtze Power and suggests cautious investment in Huaneng Hydropower and Qianyuan Power [5].

截至 5 月 22 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1300 元/吨，周环比-1.5%， 山西产地价格大跌，河南、安徽产地价格持平。铁水产量微跌，样本 钢厂煤焦库存微涨。本周焦炭价格持平、螺纹钢价格小跌，截至 5 月 23 日，山西临汾一级冶金焦出厂价 1350 元/吨，周环比持平，螺纹钢 现货价格 3160 元，周环比-1.3%，大型焦化开工率小涨，焦炭首轮提 降落地，截至 5 月 23 日，焦化厂产能（＞200 万吨）开工率 81.6%， 周环比+0.4pct。 核心观点 行 业 研 究 华福证券 煤炭 2025 年 05 月 24 日 日耗上行港口去库，煤价反弹在即 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 5 月 23 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 611 元/吨， 周环比-0.5%，产地价格小跌。截至 2025 年 5 月 18 日晋陕蒙三省煤矿 开工率为 81.3%，周环比-0.02pct。本周电厂日耗小涨，电厂库存微跌， 动力煤库存指数微跌，秦港库存小跌。非电方面，甲醇开工率小跌、 尿素开工率小涨，仍处于历史同期偏高水平，截至 5 月 22 日，甲醇开 工率为 87.0%， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][22]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.566 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 5.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.806 billion yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 2.436 billion yuan, an increase of 9.17% year-on-year, while the net profit was 625 million yuan, a decrease of 5.26% year-on-year [3][4]. - The blood glucose management and POCT solutions segment saw a revenue increase of 40.20% to 1.03 billion yuan in 2024, with CGM sales more than doubling. However, the respiratory segment experienced a decline of 22.42% to 2.597 billion yuan due to high base effects from the pandemic [4][5]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability in 2025 as revenue growth is expected to improve, following a challenging 2024 where gross margin decreased to 50.14% [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 8.67 billion yuan, 9.856 billion yuan, and 11.127 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 14%, and 13% respectively. The net profit projections for the same years are 2.037 billion yuan, 2.362 billion yuan, and 2.677 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13%, 16%, and 13% respectively [6][7]. - The company’s domestic sales were 6.574 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.58% year-on-year, while international sales reached 949 million yuan, an increase of 30.4% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in overseas markets [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [16]. Core Insights - Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot has showcased its capabilities in performing various daily tasks, emphasizing its learning process through human video input rather than traditional coding methods [4][5]. - Apple's new PH2D method aims to reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of humanoid robot training by combining human coaches with robot demonstrators, addressing the limitations of traditional training methods [5]. - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting that the market size in China will reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030 [6]. Summary by Sections Tesla's Optimus Robot - Tesla's Optimus robot is designed to perform various tasks in daily life, learning from human actions through a single neural network [4]. - Elon Musk has reiterated that the Optimus robot will be one of Tesla's most important products [4]. Apple's Training Method - Apple has introduced the PH2D method, which combines human coaching with robot demonstrations to enhance training efficiency [5]. - The new approach utilizes modified consumer-grade devices to create training materials, making the process less labor-intensive and costly [5]. Market Outlook - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see substantial growth, with sales in China projected to increase from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units by 2030 [6]. - The industry is viewed as a significant technological advancement that could alleviate repetitive physical labor in society [6].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market exhibits significant and prolonged style switching, with value and growth styles frequently alternating. Growth style shows explosive potential but lacks sustainability, while value style offers more stability in adverse conditions. Large-cap stocks have higher cumulative returns across multiple cycles and better ability to traverse cycles [3][14][15] - The driving factors for style rotation include changes in liquidity, valuation recovery, and policy guidance, with southbound capital inflows, interest rate cycles, industry regulation, and macro expectations shaping dominant styles in different phases [3][15][16] - The empirical performance of the risk parity model in multi-style strategy combinations shows robust excess return capabilities and risk control advantages, achieving an annualized return of 19.77% from March 2, 2015, to April 30, 2025, with an information ratio of 1.72 [3][15][16] Group 2 - The report highlights the structural differences in industry allocation among different style indices, with large-cap indices concentrated in stable sectors like finance, consumption, and utilities, while small-cap and growth indices focus more on technology, healthcare, and manufacturing, exhibiting higher volatility but stronger elasticity [3][17] - The value strategy, based on the PB-ROE model, aims to identify undervalued stocks with a focus on fundamental and valuation mismatches, achieving an annualized return of 13.91% while maintaining a 20% exposure to the financial sector to enhance value attributes [3][23][41] - The growth strategy targets high growth rates in revenue and net profit, achieving an annualized return of 22.66%, with a recent tilt towards core assets in healthcare and technology [3][23][41] Group 3 - The quality strategy focuses on companies with stable profitability, healthy cash flow, and optimized capital structure, yielding an annualized return of 11.48%, although recent market style shifts have narrowed excess returns [3][23][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing style switching points to significantly enhance portfolio returns, suggesting that effective allocation among different style strategies can provide smoother navigation through various market environments [3][9][14] - The analysis of the past decade reveals that the Hong Kong stock market has experienced notable style shifts, with the performance of value and growth styles continuously alternating [3][9][14]

华福证券 固 收 Table_First|Table_Summary 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 23 日 研 究 【华福固收】10 年国债换券？ 投资要点： 从2015年以来所有10年期国债的发行和续发情况，可以看到10年期 国债一般会在单个代码全部发行完毕后再发行新代码，历史上有四次特 殊情况，其中17年续发特别国债、20年穿插发行抗疫国债、24年续发特 别国债均于目前情况有差异，仅2022年220017.IB和220019.IB与目前 250009.IB和250011.IB的情况类似，都是10年期普通附息国债在同一个 月份出现连续两次首发，并且后续有三次续发。2022年的情况是 220017.IB和220019.IB交替续发了两次，并在第一次续发后分别成为活 跃券，但220017.IB成为活跃券的时间较短，仅持续了21个交易日。 华福证券 根据后续发行计划，2025年6月6日、6月13日、7月23日分别会续发 10年国债，我们认为6月的两次续发大概率是250009.IB和250011.IB各 一次。一方面，可以参考2022年的类似情况，2022年9月的两次续发即 为220017.IB和22001 ...